Half Empty Or Half Full?

Good morning, Fackers. Do you want the good news or the bad news first? This is always a tough conundrum. Do you want to hear the good stuff, only to have it tainted by the expectation of the bad? Or do you want to get the bad out of the way first and hang your hopes on the good news being able to save the day? Since neither of these items are of great import, let's start out will the positive.

Over at FanGraphs, R.J. Anderson took a look at what Phil Hughes was able to do out of the bullpen in 2009. To some extent, I think Hughes' contributions to the team were overlooked last season. Since he began the year as a starter with marginal success, his overall numbers were solid but not eye-popping (3.03 ERA, 86 IP, 1.116 WHIP, 3.43 K/BB).

However, if you look solely at his performance as a reliever, it was highly impressive. He struck out over 12 batters per 9 innings, had an ERA of 1.40 and a FIP of 1.83 in 51.1 IP. The FIP was particularly impressive considering that only 32 relievers have had a sub-2.00 FIP (minimum 40 IP) since 1990. Perhaps most surprisingly, not one of those belongs to Mariano Rivera. As Anderson acknowledges, FIP probably underrates Rivera because it can't measure his ability to induce weak contact, but Hughes' '09 campaign was impressive nonetheless.

Perhaps Hughes' ultimate destination will be the starting rotation, but there is reason to hope that he can be a real weapon out of the 'pen if that's where he ends up.

And now for the negative. As many analysts have felt the need to point out during this offseason, Dayn Perry at FOX Sports would like to remind everyone that just because Yankees won 103 games and the World Series last season, doesn't mean that they are a lock to do it again. Not exactly a bold statement, but let's take a look at Perry's points.

1. The lower baseline
2. Age

3. A brutal division

4. The vagaries of the postseason

The only one of those that needs explaining is the first. Perry cites the fact that the Yanks' Pythagorean record predicted that they would win only 95 games last year instead of 103. Of course, that still would have comfortably earned them a playoff berth. Which leads us to his final point.

If the 2001-2009 era taught you nothing else as a Yankee fan, you should be keenly aware that it's really, really hard to win a championship. The postseason isn't a total crapshoot, but the best team clearly doesn't always win. It's not to say that the Yanks were the the most worthy squad in all of those seasons, but there were probably three, four or five times that they entered October as the odds-on favorite, only to get bounced before claiming #27. Thanks to our generous sponsors at Bodog, we know that you can take the Yankees at 11/4 to win the World Series right now. But, that of course factors in things that not relevant on the field of play like betting volume. The real world odds are probably significantly higher.

If this was pre-2004, you might have had to remind some Yankees fans that it's far from a given that the team will repeat in 2010. Before 2008, you might have had to remind them that a postseason appearance is not a birthright. But I think anyone who is reading this blog knows better than to make those kind of assumptions in March.

13 Days Until Spring Training: Alex Rodriguez

A year ago today, the biggest PR problem Alex Rodriguez had was his portrayal in Joe Torre's book. At the time, The Yankee Years painted A-Rod as a preening, narcissistic phony who was universally disliked by his teammates. There wasn't much in the book that hadn't been written in the tabloids already, but it was different to hear the rumors of A-Fraud confirmed by his former manager.

It might have been unpleasant for A-Rod to deal with the negative press, but there a revelation far more detrimental to his reputation bubbling just beneath the surface. Over the next few days of 2009, Selena Roberts would confront A-Rod with the knowledge that he failed a steroid test back in 2003 and eventually report it to the world. It made what Joe Torre wrote in his book seem like a mild inconvenience.

Thankfully, A-Rod admitted his steroid use right away, but the backlash began to snowball after his interview with Peter Gammons and got even more ugly following his press conference in Tampa. He added still more fuel to the fire when he left the park during Spring Training with his disgraced cousin, was pictured kissing a mirror in a Details magazine photo shoot and was outed in the Daily News for being involved in a relationship with the madame of a whorehouse.

Those events were really just bad P.R. and weren't going to have much of an impact on his on-field production. But then came the news of his hip injury and the impending surgery which ultimately cost him the first month of the season. What was already a disastrous offseason got tangibly, inarguably, a whole lot worse. At least it seemed pretty terrible at the time.

But at a certain point when he was hiding out and rehabbing in Colorado, things started to change. The details of Selena Roberts's book began to leak and some had the potential to be very damning, but the tide began to turn. Craig from Shysterball was among the first to question the motives and level of objectivity Roberts used in writing her exposé and fairly swiftly, we all grew tired of the never ending stream of A-Rod's exploits.

Then of course he rejoined the team in a moment a movie studio would have rejected because it was too unrealistic; a three run shot on the very first pitch he saw. Although he struggled early on in his return, the back to back days off he got off in Florida seemed to turn his season around.

After his return the Yankees went 88-44 and climbed from 4.5 games behind the Red Sox to achieve the best record in baseball by 6 games. After his two day hiatus in Miami, they were 62-28. He was probably given too much credit for turning Mark Teixeira's season around, but it's hard to understate the importance of swapping replacement-level guys like Angel Berroa and Cody Ransom for one of the 5 best hitters in the game.

We heard a lot about the fact that A-Rod flew under the radar last year. In October, Joel Sherman talked about his newfound ability to blend in with the team. At the conclusion of the season, Marc Carig dubbed him the "Quietest Yankee". Even the notorious PeteAbe, who has never been too fond of the slugger, gave him credit for his ability to "blend in and stay out of the news".

Most importantly, though, A-Rod finally broke out with a monstrous playoff run. He hit a series-changing home run off of Joe Nathan in Game 2 of the ALDS along with a game-tying dinger off of Carl Pavano in Game 3.

He raked .429/.567/.952 against the Angels in the ALCS, including a crucial game-tying shot against Brain Fuentes in the 11th inning of Game 2 on an 0-2 pitch with Freddy Guzman, Brett Gardner and the struggling Robinson Cano waiting behind him.

A-Rod's line of .250/.423/.560 in the Fall Classic wasn't as gaudy as either of the previous series but he came up with huge hit after huge hit. A two run shot off of Cole Hamels in Game 3. The go-ahead double off of Brad Lidge in Game 4. He also scored two runs in the clinching Game 6.

Do you think that if you traveled back one year in time and told A-Rod that he would be outed as a steroid user, have his name splashed throughout the tabloids, have seriuos hip surgery and inadvertently grope a female police officer but would somehow come out better for it on the other side a year later, that he would have believed you? I personally still find it hard to believe now.

25 Days Until Spring Training: Mark Teixeira

There are 25 days until pitchers and catchers are due to report to George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa so we begin our countdown to Spring Training, as we did last year, with Mark Teixeira.

While Jason Giambi was a valuable player during his career with the Yankees, the franchise made a major upgrade by replacing him with Mark Teixiera last winter. Better both defensively and at the plate, the Maryland native and Georgia Tech alum started of the Pinstriped portion of his career on the right foot.

Teixeira cleaned up the postseason awards by finishing second in the MVP vote, and being awarded both the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger among American League first baseman. Depsite the accolades, Teixeira's first season in the Bronx didn't quite measure up to the two previous ones he split between in Texas, Atlanta and Anaheim. However, being shuttled between the AL and NL midseason prevented him from getting credit for his robust production in the award voting.

In both 2007 and 2008 he batted over .300 and got on base at better than a 40% clip but in 2009 he did neither - hitting .292/.383/.565 - but did record a slugging percentage 20 points above his career average. He tied for the AL lead in home runs with 39 and led the Yanks in slugging percentage and OPS (.948) but he by no means reached his ceiling last year.

Part of this can be attributed to an an awful April which put him in a hole that took until the end of May to climb out. However, even in that terrible month, he walked 17 times in 90 plate appearances and had a respectable on-base percentage of .367.

Teixiera's defense is well-regarded by fans, broadcasters and scouts alike, but it doesn't seem to show up in UZR. He posted a below average rating last season and his defense over the the previous three comes out to be almost exactly neutral. Tom Tango acknowledges that there is likely something that UZR might be missing about Teixeira's defense. What might that be? Well for one, infield line drives aren't counted by UZR, and those go a long way in determining who the best defensive first basemen are.

Teixiera hit for a higher batting average and on-base percentage from the right side of the plate while slugging better as a lefty in 2009, which could be attributed to playing half of his games in the Bronx if it wasn't a patten that has been evident over his entire career. Of course, Yankee Stadium probably enhanced those splits, as 24 of his 39 long balls were hit at home and his numbers were better there across the board.

Partially lost in the Yankees' World Series victory was the fact that Teixeira struggled during the postseason. He made some sparkling defensive plays including one that helped David Robertson wriggle out of an 11th inning jam in Game 2 of the ALDS which he followed with a game-winning home run in the bottom half of the inning. But his overall line was .182/.282/.311, walking only 6 times in 71 plate appearances.

Similar to his funk at the beginning of the season, Teixeira could have been rusty from all the days off that the Yanks had during the postseason. He's said in the past that batting from both sides of the plate makes it harder to find his rhytym. While many players didn't seem to mind it, the inactivity might mess with Teix's timing more than it does with other players'. He's a notoriously slow starter, so there is likely some truth to that notion.

Odds are, Teixeira will have many more Aprils and Octobers in Pinstripes to try to sort these problems out.

Replacing A World Series MVP [Part II]

Yesterday, Matt noted that for the third time since 1996, the Yankees will have to evaluate whether or not to retain a World Series MVP who is heading into free agency. In 1996, they opted to let John Wetteland walk in favor of an up-and-coming closer named Mariano Rivera. However, they decided to keep Scott Brosius after their legendary 1998 campaign instead of turning to Mike Lowell, who had just posted two excellent minor league seasons, the majority of which came at AAA.

Interestingly, 11 years later, Mike Lowell found himself playing the role of Brosius for the 2007 Red Sox with frightening accuracy. Lowell had a standout year at the plate that was driven by a batting average well above his career mark, played excellent defense at 3rd while putting up an OPS+ in the 120's, made the All-Star team, and drove in exactly 15 runs in the postseason en route to a team championship and a World Series MVP.

Membahs of Rex Sawx Nation were all, "Aw, you've gotta resign Mikey Lowell. Dood is fackin' moooooney!" And, yes, some people (presumably a group of 7th graders) even started a petition, which included this gem:

These statistics show that Mike Lowell has elevated his game since his coming to Boston. In the perspective of Red Sox Nation, he has been the team MVP the entire 2007 season. He delivered for the team when the team needed something big to happen. Mike Lowell has been "a clutch player" this entire season.

However, this past post-season, he has taken things to another level.

[cites 2007 postseason stats]

So how did Mike Lowell's incredible postseason carry over into the 3 year, $36M contract he signed with the Sox? What of his "Bostonian Game Elevation" and "Clutch Player-ing"?

Since the beginning of the 2008 season, Lowell has hit only slightly above league average for a third baseman, played no more than 110 games in either season at 3rd base, underwent hip surgery, watched his defensive skills erode and oh by the way, kind of sucked in the playoffs.

So what of Hideki Matsui, who finds himself in a similar situation this year? Matsui won't be looking for a deal anywhere near as long, and didn't even play defense this year, but both are older players coming off surprisingly strong offensive seasons, punctuated by productive postseasons and, of course, the WS MVPs.

Yesterday, Brian Cashman came right out and said that he wasn't going to be influenced by what Matsui (or Johnny Damon) did in the playoffs when it comes to deciding whether or not to hold onto them this offseason:

We’re thankful for the guys who did what they did, and if you had a great postseason, terrific.

What they are when they went into October, that’s what they still are, regardless of how good or how poor they played in the postseason.

I know Matt advocated bringing Hideki Matsui back yesterday (not because of his postseason, obviously), but I'm on the other side of this debate. There are certainly going to be offensive losses involved with giving Posada, A-Rod, Jeter and Damon days off by DH'ing them, but there will also be defensive upgrades. I believe those players are going to need the days off and having to sit Matsui by no fault of his own will make it more difficult for Joe Girardi to give guys adequate rest, regardless of how professional Matsui is about it. And if he's on he bench in 1/3 or 1/2 of the games, how effective will Matsui be when he finally gets to the plate?

Matsui's knees have become a nagging problem and he needed to have them drained multiple times throughout the season. They have already turned him into a full-time DH so I think it's fair to wonder how long it will be before they total kill his baserunning skills and begin to sap his offensive power as well.

He was a great hitter and a consummate professional in his time with the Yankees, but I think it's time to say "sayonara" to Godzilla and send him off on the highest possible note. Thanks for the memories, Hideki.

Nick Swisher Futility Update

[Photo]

In some ways it's a little unfair to single one person out after and impotent offensive output like last night, but this has been a long time coming for Nick Swisher.

It's not that Swish is having bad luck at the plate, hitting balls hard but having them find defenders. He's having poor at bats, not working walks and missing hittable pitches. In his three at bats last night, he popped out softly to first, flew out softly to right and struck out looking on a change up right down the middle in the 8th inning.

In the first two at bats, Lee threw a lot of tough pitches, staying away from Swisher or keeping it below his knees. But in the third one, six out of the seven pitches he threw were directly in the middle of the strikezone (follow the link for higher resolution):

Swish was even given a generous ball on the second pitch of the at bat - the green square which was clearly high enough and right down the pike. So what did Swisher do with the five (really 6) pitches that were in his - or Major League hitter's - wheelhouse? He took three for strikes (and one for a ball) and fouled the other two off.

You don't take three four strikes in those respective locations in one at bat unless you are completely lost at the plate and are simply resorting to guessing. You don't foul the other two off unless your rhythm and timing are out of whack.

It was as if Lee & Ruiz had figured out that Swisher wasn't going to hit the ball no matter where it was and decided to just lay it right down the middle.

Yes, it's one at bat, but it's emblematic of how awful Swisher has been since Game 2 of the ALDS. He got a great pitch to hit in the last at bat of Game 5 out in Anaheim from Brain Fuentes and couldn't do anything with that either. He's hitting .114/.205/.143 this postseason and still starting every game. He's walked three times and struck out 12. He has four hits in 40 plate appearances, only one of which has gone for extra bases.

Swisher is prone to extended slumps and he picked a pretty terrible time to have one of his worst of the year. The sporadic schedule has probably negatively affected as a switch hitter since he has two swings that he needs to keep working and both have seemingly fallen into a state of disrepair.

I'm well aware that this is going to sound stupid and I'm certain Joe Girardi won't do it, but what has to happen for Brett Gardner to start in center field and Melky Cabrera in right? How bad does Swisher have to be before you give him the night off? Because I don't think he could get much worse. At least the alternative would provide a significant defensive upgrade in the outfield, something that's not nearly as hit or miss from game to game.

With Pedro starting in Game 2, Swisher is going to have to spin around and hit from the left side of the plate. He hasn't batted lefty since Game 5 in Anaheim which was a full week ago, but again, pretty much anything would be an improvement over how he looked last night. In his career, he tends to get one base a little better against lefties and hit for power more successfully against RHP. Either of those things would be fantastic.

I would love for Swisher to go out tonight and jack a homer or drive in a couple of runs and shut me and his other critics up. But there are absolutely no signs that he will. You can say he's due, but that's not what his at bats are saying.

Please Nick, do something, anything before the postseason is over. Bad Octobers make for long offseasons. And it's going to be a couple days longer if you don't get it going soon.

Ruminations On Game 2

Hello Fackers. Sorry for my recent absence - if any of you in fact noticed - various family, work, and laptop failure issues have kept me off the internets for most of the past 10 days or so. Thankfully Jay more than kept things afloat around here.

My uncle had tickets to Friday's ALDS Game 2, and my brother and I were fortunate enough to get the invite to join him and my cousin at the game. I'd never been to a post-season game before, and if I go to a hundred more, it'll be tough to match the excitement of Friday's game.

I'm a little late to the party on this one, so I don't want to recreate the game recap or echo Ben Kabak's sentiments about being there Friday night. But beyond my gratitude for being able to be there (and not having to suffer through Chip Caray in the process), there are a few thoughts I'd like to share on the game:

• I've been very critical of many Joe Girardi decisions over the course of this season. As I mentioned briefly last week, I wasn't completely sold on starting Jose Molina in Game 2, but beyond that, I agreed with every move Girardi made over the course of the game. For once, I thought the match ups he played with the bullpen were the right ones, even if not everyone executed properly (Marte). I still fear that Girardi's love for little ball will cost the Yankees a game at some point, but I'll give credit where it's due right now. I think he managed a great game Friday night.


• Last week I also questioned the need for three catchers on the ALDS roster. I still don't think it's the wisest use of a roster spot, but in light of the decision to start Molina, it allowed Girardi not only to pinch hit with Posada, but also to pinch run for Posada with Brett Gardner later on. It nearly worked to perfection in the eleventh inning.


• Like nearly everyone else, I thought the Yanks were screwed in the eleventh with the bases loaded and no one out. Yet, because of his league leading K-rate, David Robertson was exactly the pitcher I wanted on the mound at that point - and why I thought it was a smart move for Girardi to go to Aceves rather than the twice warmed D-Rob to start the tenth - better to save Robertson for a runners on jam like the one Marte pitched into. That Robertson was able to pitch out of that jam is remarkable. That he was able to do it without a strikeout or a doubleplay is amazing. Mark Teixeira will be remembered for his walk-off HR in this game, but he made two huge defensive plays to get the Yanks out of the jam in the top half of the final inning.


• Another play that will get lost in the noise of the dramatic home runs and furor over the blown foul ball call was a head's up defensive play from Nick Swisher and Derek Jeter in the fourth inning. As Carlos Gomez stumbled and fell rounding second base, Jeter wisely signaled for the ball and Swisher got it there in time to catch Gomez before Delmon Young could score. Not only did the Yankees catch a big break in Gomez falling, but the caught an even bigger one when Gomez instinctively scrambled back to the bag. Had he allowed himself to get caught in a rundown instead it would have been enough to prolong the play long enough for Young to cross the plate.

Lastly, thanks to all the matching up, Chad Gaudin was lone remaining active player out the bullpen when Teix ended the game. So while everyone else was partying at the plate, I caught this extremely amateurish shot of Gaudin (in the jacket) trotting in from the pen, past the ball boy, to join the party.



Back with more in a bit...

Getting A Couple Monkeys Off Of A Couple Backs

Good morning, Fackers. Last night's was obviously a pretty big win, but mostly because a loss would have been so devastating. Being that it's a short series and Games 3 & 4 are going to be played in the Metrodome, where the Twins were 49-33 this year, it's good to get the first one under our collective belt. The old dome in Minneapolis is going to be supercharged for the inevitable Game 3 and possible 4 given that they could be the last baseball contests ever staged there and they'll be packing them to the rafters and handing out hankies.

Last night was also huge for both CC and A-Rod. I was a little concerned after the egg he laid in Tampa Bay looking for win number 20, but Sabathia stepped up last night, getting some big outs, striking out 8 and allowing hardly any solid contact. He needed 113 pitches to get through 6 2/3, but he kept the Twins offense, which been so hot of late, at bay under very tough conditions.

A-Rod's not one but two hits with runners in scoring position broke a massive postseason drought spanning all the way back to Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS. He was hitting .143/.314/.214 with 1 RBI and two extra base hits in 70 plate appearances. In that span left 38 runners on base and was 0 for 27 with RISP. We don't give a whole lot of credence to the concept of clutch hitting around here, but it's undeniable that A-Rod wasn't just falling victim to bad luck.

If those 70 at bats had occurred in a row, there's no chance that his numbers would have been that bad. He would have kept swinging and worked out of it. But they spanned years and happened in small doses since the Yanks hadn't played in more than 5 postseason games in any season since then. The pressure began to build and he began to press, striking out in almost 1/3 of his at bats.

While it makes for a convenient tabloid story to talk about how Alex has some sort of a new-found focus since he admitted to using steroids, or is more comfortable in the clubhouse, the reality is that he's just too good of a hitter to slug .214 for very long, under any circumstances.

Arguably, or at least potentially the Yankees two most important players for this postseason, Sabathia and Rodriguez got off on the right foot last night. They've already cut themselves some slack, even if it's just in their own minds, so when A-Rod digs in on Friday night, the urgency of having to drive in a run will be gone. When Sabathia takes the hill next, whenever that might be, he won't have to prove that he can have a good outing in the postseason, because he already got that out of the way.

We can downplay the impact of pressure, but I think we can agree that those who perform well regardless of the level of pressure are the ones that don't change their approach. The feeling of urgency is unfamiliar to players who are constantly looking out for the long haul - that 162 game mega-marathon. The postseason might be a sprint, but the key is to keep running the same speed. Derek Jeter's OPS is almost exactly the same in the regular season as it is in the postseason (.847 & .850), yet he's perceived as a clutch god. The reality is that he's the same great player that he always is.

That's all the Yankees need right now. Not everyone can be Mariano Rivera and actually elevate their performance on the biggest stage. If Sabathia and A-Rod can just be their usual excellent selves, we'll be well on our way to a satisfying October.

The Case Of Melky v. Gardner

Aside from debating the merits of Jose Molina catching a playoff game over Jorge Posada, which has already been done pretty extensively, there is really only one other marginal decision that Joe Girardi has to make in terms of configuring his starting line-up. Center field is that one area of debate, where both Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner have a case to start.

They've both had up and down years and each has skills that the other doesn't. Melky hit 13 home runs this year while Gardner still stole 26 bases despite being on base just over 100 times. His speed also makes Gardner far less likely to ground into double plays. Melky has about twice as many plate apperances but has bounced into five times more twin killings.

Gardner offers much better defense, but Melky is still above average in center. For what it's worth, Melky has shown a penchant for big hits this year even though Gardner has better "clutch" stats. The Melk Man had a decidedly better September/October although that isn't very important either.

If either are left out of the line up and substituted for each other late in the game, Melky can provide the power as a pinch hitter while Gardner can add some speed (and better range in center) as a pinch runner or defensive replacement.

Being a switch-hitter, Melky offers better production against lefties although Gardner's tiny split of 55 PAs with a .356 BABIP doesn't bear that out quite yet. What you might not have expected is that Cabrera also has a better OPS than Brett the Jet against righties (.747 to .708). However, he's better in terms of average and power but is comparable in OBP, which is easily the most important of the three categories, especially over a limited sample.

Each of the three starters the Twins is likely to use in the ALDS is right handed: Kevin Slowey, Carl Pavano, and Scott Baker. Ditto for the Tigers with Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello.

How should Girardi fill the CF slot, and presumably 9 hole in the line up in the games where Jose Molina isn't catching? Gardner brings two assets (speed and defense) to the table which would seem to be valuable in playoff games, but Melky has been a better hitter over the course of the season and has proved it over more at bats.

Considering all of the pitchers the Yankees are facing are right handers, should one guy start every game until further notice? If you figure that one is better than the other, is there a reason to divide the starts? Have they both earned the right to play in the postseason? Should that matter?

[Update 12:50: Greg from Pending Pinstripes has explored this topic in-depth and feels that Gardner is the clear answer. Here are three of his posts... Missing Brett Gardner, Brett Gardner's Off the DL, Should Melky Still Be Starting?, and Melky Cabrera Is Not As Clutch As You Might Think. There's good stuff in all of those entries and it's a slow day for baseball news on the internets, so check them out. If you weren't already leaning towards Gardner, that might be enough to push you over the fence.]

A-Rod's Turbulent But Taciturn 2009

Good morning, Fackers. The Yankees and A-Rod in particular closed out the regular season with a bang yesterday.

This year will be remembered for a lot of things done by individual players. The debuts of CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, the emergence of Nick Swisher, the defensive re-invention of Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano's rebound, Jorge Posada's ability to contribute despite his shoulder and hamstring injuries, Johnny Damon's power surge, Chien Ming Wang's fall from grace, Phil Hughes' transition to the bullpen, Brett Gardner's first season in The Bigs, Mariano Rivera's continued excellence, Joba Chamberlain's innings limit, and the swan song of Hideki Matsui.

Am I missing anything? Oh yeah, A-Rod.

A-Rod endured what was certainly the most tumultuous offseason a player has had since Game of Shadows essentially convicted Barry Bonds of doing steroids in the court of public opinion before the 2006 season to have a pretty damn good year in 2009.

It started with Joe Torre's book, exploded with his admissions of steroid use, got worse with his interview with Peter Gammons and even more ugly with his press conference in Tampa. Adding still more fuel to the fire was the time he left the park with his disgraced cousin, the Details magazine photo shoot and the revelations that he was involved in a relationship with the madame of a whorehouse.

Those events were really just bad P.R. and weren't going to have much of an impact on his on-field production. Then came the news of his hip injury and the impending surgery which ultimately cost him the first month of the season. What was already a disastrous offseason got tangibly, inarguably a whole lot worse. At least it seemed pretty terrible at the time. (Click through that one for one of my finer photoshops)

But at a certain point when he was hiding out and rehabbing in Colorado, things started to change. The details of Selena Roberts's book began to leak and some had the potential to be very damning, but the tide began to turn. Craig from Shysterball was among the first to question the motives and level of objectivity Roberts used in writing her exposé and fairly swiftly, we all grew tired of the never ending stream of A-Rod's exploits.

Then of course he rejoined the team in a moment a movie studio would have rejected because it was too unrealistic; a three run shot on the very first pitch he saw. Although he struggled early on in his return, the back to back days off he got off in Florida seemed to turn his season around.

Since his return the Yankees went 88-44 and climbed from 4.5 games behind the Red Sox to achieve the best record in baseball by 6 games. Since his two day hiatus they are 62-28. He was probably given too much credit for turning Mark Teixeira's season around, but it's hard to understate the importance of swapping replacement-level guys like Angel Berroa and Cody Ransom for one of the 5 best hitters in the game.

We've heard a lot about the fact that A-Rod has flown under the radar this year. Joel Sherman recently talked about his newfound ability to blend in with the team. Yesterday, Marc Carig dubbed him the "Quietest Yankee". Even our pal PeteAbe, who has never been too fond of the slugger, gave him credit for his ability to "blend in [and] stay out of the news".

Did anyone see this coming? I'll be the first to admit that I did not. One the posts I wrote before the season started and liked above was entitled "This Is Never Going To End" and another was "Hurricane A-Rod". I put up another one comparing him to an actual Albatross. At the time it looked like he was spiraling out of control and I think we should be very thankful that he did not.

It's not just that he eclipsed the 30 home run and 100 RBI marks for the 13th straight season, miraculously breaking a record he previously shared with Jimmie Foxx and Manny Ramirez. A-Rod actually had a higher on-base percentage than in 2008 despite batting 16 points lower. He changed his approach at the plate and as a result struck out in 18.2% of his plate appearances, down from 19.6% in 2008.

Fifty-one of his 100 RBIs tied the game or gave the Yankees the lead (although that didn't stop a certain insufferably bitter Yankee blogger who didn't even watch yesterday's game from dismissing the homers because they came in "garbage time"). He stole 14 bases and got caught only twice. He gave the Yankees more production than they could have reasonably expected given the injury he was coming off of.

I'm not going to fall into the trap of saying any of this makes him more likely to have a great postseason. I thought his ridiculous MVP campaign in 2007 set him up to break out of his October slump but it most definitely did not. The reality is that a 5 game series is a tiny, tiny sample and there is no guarantee that he will get the big hit or hits that he is seemingly due for.

I'm sure as hell hoping it happens, though. A-Rod is a power hitter with holes in his swing, who seems to alter his approach when the pressure elevates, neither of which portend profound postseason production. But as he's demonstrated time and time again, he can carry a team when he finds his groove. Maybe this is the year he finally gets hot in the postseason, and maybe it's not. If it is though, the other teams standing in the Yankees' way had better watch out.

Partial Postseason Prognostication

With only a week remaining in the MLB regular season and only two races still undecided - the AL Central and NL Wild Card - we're seeing more and more articles seeking historical trends that predict postseason success. Last week, we linked to Lisa Swan's article about strong Septembers and Flip Flop Fly Ball's chart displaying the correlation (or lack thereof) between the having the best record during the regular season and winning the World Series.

Well late last week and over the weekend a few more of these pieces popped up and here are three of them (all via BBTF):

Similar to the chart at FFFB, Tom Verducci sorted the last 9 World Series winners by their regular season record and found an almost perfectly even distribution of League Championship pennants and World Series Victories. One championship came from each of the top 7 seeds and two came from teams seeded 8 or higher, such as the 2006 Cardinals who had the 13th best record in the league that year but still won the WS.

It's a pretty rough measure for a couple of reasons. The first, which Verducci points out himself, is that the teams don't play balanced schedules so teams get as much credit for the record in the NL Central as they do in the AL East, and so forth. Secondly, in 2006 for instance, four of the best 5 records came out of the American League. As a result there was an artificially higher chance of a low seed winning a pennant and a World Series (which happened with the Cardinals) since three of them were on one side of the bracket.

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Next up, Dave Cameron wrote a piece for Wall Street Journal's website which showed that over the last 7 years, the teams that won the World Series have had a relatively small amount of meaningless games leading up to the postseason.

Dave quantifies "meaningless" games as ones that were played after their team has locked up a postseason berth either by winning their division or securing the Wild Card, but doesn't count ones that factor in the race for homefield advantage or are played against potential postseason opponents. Those certainly are played with a higher level of effort and urgency that the ones the Yankees are about to play against the Royals, one would assume. As Rob Neyer points out, 7 years is also a pretty small sample size.

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Lastly, we have a piece by Lincoln Mitchell in The Faster Times which would seem to fly directly in the face of the half-baked theory proposed by Jeff Pearlman that we took issue with last week. Mitchell attempts to identify the team with the best two starters each year and concludes that since 1995, that club has won the World Series only twice.

There are problems with this methodology as well. ERA+ is not a bad measure but it certainly is not conclusive in determining the team with the best two starters when the postseason rolled around. Furthermore, if we wanted to do more of a complete assessment, we would rank each team's top two pitchers, or better yet give them a score on a scale of, say, 1-10 which would more accurately display the difference between each duo. In some years the top two hurlers for the best team might get a "9" and the next best team only receives a 6, but a straight ranking wouldn't convey that. Once the scores were determined then we could look at the results and see how they correlated with postseason success. Then we might have a better picture of how having two dominant starters predicts playoff series victories.

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Do you notice a theme developing here? These methodologies are all pretty incomplete. A huge part of the problem is that baseball is littered with variables, there is no control group and you can't just create situations and run them over and over. Of course it's much easier to point out the deficiencies of these findings than take the time to complete the analysis.

All of these writers are admittedly taking a "quick and dirty" type of approach to their analysis and that's completely understandable. At one point, I started a post that was similar to Lisa Swan's about finishing the regular season on a high note (but I wanted to look over the last 10, 15 and 20 games as opposed to the final month) but as soon as I figured out how many tedious calculations I was going to have to do and how much time it would take me to do even a couple years worth of analysis, I scrapped it.

Another factor that makes it difficult to go more in-depth is that, ideally, you want to have a point when you are done with your research. These pieces were written for online outlets where time is always of the essence. You don't want to spend a bunch of time and at the end of the post have to say, "Through all of this research I determined that there is no noticeable correlation in the data."

And this brings me back to a piece that we looked at back at the end of August by Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus. Jaffe brought up the research conducted by Nate Silver and Dayn Perry that lead to the creation of BP's Secret Sauce and applied it to this year's playoff picture. The difference here is that the Silver and Perry went into their research testing all sorts of variables and determined that strong defense, a pitching staff with a high K/9 and strong closer all had high correlation to postseason success. The Secret Sauce is the closest thing we have to a scientific study of what teams are "built for the playoffs" and it's still fairly incomplete.

In all likelihood the Yankees will take the long ALDS, so we still have over nine days before the first postseason pitch is thrown. We're to see more attempts at unlocking the postseason code and they'll probably be pretty interesting. But I highly doubt any of them are going to take the time to shift our thinking with a truly in-depth study of what October baseball really comes down to. Let's just try to enjoy the fact that the Yanks can coast home, throw out their B and C line ups and take things as they come.

The Fallacy Of A Hot September

In the beginning of every season, we are forced to look at extremely small sample sizes in order to evaluate performance, which grow larger as the year progresses. It takes a while, but over the summer months, trends become realities and we begin to see who the best players and teams are. But before those positions can be solidified, the schedule winds down and heads into the postseason. Then, broadcasters, analysts and fans all try to identify who the hottest teams are heading into October and the big picture is viewed in terms of increasingly small sample sizes once again.

But does being hot heading into the playoffs really forebode success once you get there? The 2007 Rockies were the most recent poster child of this theory, skyrocketing from 6.5 games back and only 5 games over .500 as late as September 16th and finally sneaking into the postseason via a play-in game against the Padres. From there they swept their way to the World Series but were ultimately dismantled by the Red Sox.

Of course, the '07 Rockies are just one end of the spectrum. On the other hand, you have the 2000 Yankees who turned into a train wreck down the stretch, going 2-12 over their final 14 games, ending the season on a 7 game losing streak and nearly blowing the division. That Yankee team of course went on to beat the Indians, Mariners and Mets and unlike the above mentioned Rockies, actually won the World Series.

Today at The Faster Times, Lisa Swan from Subway Squawkers looked at how every playoff team since the year 2000 performed in September and how it correlated to their success in the postseason. Surprise, surprise... there is essentially no connection at all. Click through for the details.

In a season bereft of any really close pennant races, but the same amount of articles to be published, scribes will be churning out columns trying to identify who is primed for October based on the way they are playing now. Someone is probably writing one about the Yankees right now. Most columnists make a living trying to find story lines. Unfortunately for them, if you want to foretell the future in baseball, you be better off breaking out the crystal ball.

My Back Pages

We say this every morning in the form of the typical greeting, but today truly is a good morning, Fackers. The Yankees clinched their first playoff berth under Joe Girardi. Sure it had been a virtual inevitability for a good month or so, but it feels a lot different now that it's locked up. It didn't hurt that they won a back and forth game against a potential postseason opponent to do their part of it, either.

The Yankees did it the right way, and didn't go for the over-the-top champagne celebration, or really any celebration at all, actually. Joe Girardi gathered the team and simply said "Congratulations, and let's keep it going". He acted like he had been there before, even though he hadn't as a manager. You've gotta respect that.

Make no mistake, the reason that this is even remotely satisfying as fans is because of last year. Had the Yankees just clinched their 15 consecutive postseason berth, no one would have batted an eyelash. In '08, I remember watching the odds of the Yankees qualifying the playoffs dwindle down to 10 and then 5 percent and trying to talk myself into believing that a miraculous late surge, coupled with a Rays' collapse was in store. Needless to say, it was not.

A lot of the post season magic and luster was lost in 2004, but it wasn't until last year that the Yanks truly hit rock bottom. Simply playing out the string last September and watching the Old Stadium close down was humbling in ways that I didn't expect.

I think before that, most Yankee fans, especially my age, thought of a playoff bid as something of a birthright. The last time they actually missed the playoffs before '08 was 1993 (they were the best team in the AL in 1994 before the strike hit). I was 9 years old at that point and obviously wasn't yet a Saturday Package holder and a daily reader of Yankee blogs.

This year, it seems like a new experience. The twenty four months that have passed since the Yanks lost the Bug Game and were unceremoniously bounced three nights later by the Indians is an eternity in baseball years. The Yanks might not want to stop to enjoy this moment, but we will, at least momentarily. There are bigger and better things in store for this team, but the significance of this moment is not lost around these parts.

What A Difference A Day Doesn't Make

Since August 9th, when the Yankees completed their four game sweep of the Red Sox, they have been on top of the baseball world. They've had the best record in the majors at that point (69-42) and are tied for the best record since (24-11). Much credit goes to their offense, who plated 6.26 runs per game over that time, which would put them on pace to score over 1000 runs if carried out over an entire season. But more importantly, they've relied on solid pitching, holding their opponents to 2 or fewer runs 14 times in the 35 games and winning every one of those.

Andy Pettitte was a major contributor to that success, going 4-0 with a 3.48 ERA while the team went 6-1 in games he appeared in. He was easily the second best starting pitcher on the Yankees over that stretch behind CC Sabathia and one might say the Yankees only other reliable starter behind the big fella.

Yesterday, Matt noted that the the Yankees starting pitcher for tonight, who was supposed to be Andy Pettitte, was listed as "TBA". As he conveyed earlier today, Pettitte was scratched due to a shoulder fatigue, casting some doubt on the Yanks' playoff rotation.

Meanwhile, in Boston, Daisuke Matsuzaka, who many had left for dead this season after he was exiled to Fort Myers, made a triumphant return to the Red Sox rotation, throwing six innings of shutout ball against the Angels. It seemingly breathed life into a team that had just begun to secure it's playoff spot and left some Boston scribes positively giddy.

After the Red Sox won that game 4- 0 1, the now infamous battle between Carlson and Posada took place, which will most likely cost the Yanks their starting catcher for 5 or 6 games coming down the stretch. Posada's actions led several beat writers to chide him as if he were their son, all pointing to the fact that he could have harmed the Yankees postseason chances if someone got injured during the brawl.

As a result, it might seem as though the Yankees are swirling in chaos while the Red Sox are poised for postseason glory. Fortunately for Yankees fans, the truth, as always, lies somewhere in between. Matsuzka is not likely to have completely reinvented himself nor is Pettitte's shoulder injury necessarily going to have an ill effect going forward. Posada will serve his suspension and his place will be filled just fine by Jose Molina and Francisco Cervelli.

With the finish line now in view, every little thing that happens takes on a percieved added significance. Every loss can be portrayed as a harbinger of a mortal weakness and every triumph an indication of What It Takes To Win In October®. Go ahead and read the tea leaves, but don't forget that they are going to look different every single day until October 7th.

Another Perk Of Home Field Advantage

One of the ancillary benefits of having the best record in either league is that the team gets to select which of the two schedules it plays its ALDS on. Both of the options have their final 4 games scheduled for October 9th, 11th, 12th & 14th, but the ALDS "A" schedule begins on October 7th, while "B" starts on the 8th. The upshot is that "A" allows for the participants to use only 3 starting pitchers on regular rest if they so choose.

The implications for the Yankees are pretty obvious. Their top three starters are pretty clear-cut: CC Sabathia and then, in whatever order, Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett. It's the guy who slots in for the fourth game that makes the decision a little more complicated.

Steve from the Yankee Universe says it depends on how Joba Chamberlain pitches down the stretch and who the Yankees are playing (almost certainly the Tigers). Since both teams will be operating on the same schedule, if the Yankees have a bigger advantage over the Tigers when comparing their top 4 starters as opposed to their top 3, Steve thinks that would be the optimal choice.

David Pinto of Baseball Musings suggests that the Yankees should opt for the extra day of rest, and as a result the 3 man rotation, almost always, unless the opposition has a very poor fourth starter.

The Tigers top four are Edwin Jackson (147 ERA+), Justin Verlander (139), Jarrod Washburn (124) and Rick Porcello (107). Although Washburn has been terrible since joining the Tigers (6.81 ERA in 6 starts), I'm guessing his postseason experience would bump him ahead of the rookie Porcello. Verlander will probably start game one as well, but that's beside the point.

Either way, they match up favorably against the Yankees' quartet, Sabathia (131), Pettitte (109), Burnett (107) and Joba (101).

Minor detail, however: the Tigers staff is going to be facing the best offense in all of baseball: 1st in runs scored, 1st in OBP and in 1st in SLG. Conversely, the Tigers offense is 10th, 10th and 9th in those categories, respectively. I'm not sure there is a scientific way to account for that, but it would seem to tip that equation on it's head completely.

Given the choice, I would probably opt for the early start and the extra day of rest. Given that the Yankees will be able to align their rotation however they choose when the season closes down, they might as well bank that extra day of rest. Regardless of how Joba pitches throughout September, he will still be a major question mark as a starting pitcher in the postseason.

And of course, since one team is going to be down 2-1 if Game 4 does indeed occur, they could just choose to throw their ace anyway.

Yanks Slash Prices On Most Expensive Seats For Playoffs

On Monday the Yankees send out a press release announcing their ticket prices for the postseason. It garnered a good amount of positive press based on the fact that the prices are going to be lower than they were in 2007, which is fairly remarkable considering that took place across the street at the Old Stadium.

Without getting into specifics, almost all of the prices for the ALDS are equivalent to the regular season norms, and it escalates from there as it gets deeper into October.

Well it's nice that the Yankees have made their ticket prices for the playoffs more affordable, although you could probably argue that since they haven't registered a sellout since Opening Day, it might be more of a necessity than a courtesy. But when the playoffs roll around guess who gets the real break... the people with the most expensive seats. From the press release (emphasis and numbering mine):

Regular season ticket prices for full-season ticket licensees (non-Suites) will be replicated for the 2009 American League Division Series (i.e., a Main Level ticket that costs a full season ticket licensee $60 in the 2009 regular season will cost the same licensee $60 for the ALDS), (1) however, full-season ticket licensees (non-Suites) of $325 Field Level seats may purchase their seats for the ALDS at the lower price of $275 each.

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(2) Full-season Suite licensees in the Legends Suite, Delta Sky360 Suite and Jim Beam Suite, have all already paid their Suite license fees. Accordingly, they will only be required to purchase their Suite tickets, which will range from $65-$275 per Suite ticket for the ALDS, $115-$350 per Suite ticket for the ALCS, and $150-$425 per Suite ticket for the World Series.

What that boils down to is that (1) the very best non-Legends seats are going to be less expensive for the people with the seat licenses and (2) the (mainly corporate) Suite ticket holders don't have to pay their license fee at all.

Now, considering the fact that the first bunch paid $325 for their seats all year, it doesn't make a ton of sense to suddenly drop the price for by far the most desirable games of the season. I guess that's the Yankees' way of throwing them a bone after ripping them off all this time.

As for the Legends and other Suites, their license fees make up a giant portion of the ticket price. For instance, the seats I sat in back in June had a $250 seat license and just a $150 face value, meaning that they would only cost the latter amount for the ALDS. (The ~$100 food and beverage fee would still apply, but that's optional).

We've discussed the concept and execution of the Legends Seats multiple times here and an underlying theme throughout those posts was a distaste for the way that the Yankees have bent over backwards to cater to the their richest customers, while taking for granted their core fans.

This would seem to be another example of that, but the upshot is that it's highly unlikely the seats that so often sat unoccupied early in the year will be similarly vacant when October rolls around. Furthermore, if the Yanks sell out all their seats, it might trigger the release of the supposed standing room only seats which would make playoff tickets easier to come by for non-season ticket holders. In that scenario, everyone wins.

Another intersting offshoot (for me at least) is whether or not the Yanks will lower the prices for the Legends seats next year. It would be tough to do because some of the companies signed multi-year contracts at the original prices. Something to keep an eye on this offseason...

(Full disclosure: This post in the NYT Bats Blog noticed the same policy in the press release and came to some of the same conclusions, but I had this post written before that one was published. I didn't really feel the need to go back and retroactively insert it into my post.)

About Those Chickens...

Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus did not heed Matt's advice from this morning when penning this column for New York Magazine, applying BP's "Secret Sauce" for postseason success to this year's Yankees. The formula, developed by Nate Silver and Dayn Perry, isolates three key variables that have predicted team's outcomes in the postseason more accurately than others over the past 30 years:

They found that age and postseason experience had no effect on a team’s chances; surprisingly, they also found no significant correlation between any measure of team offense (including bunting and stealing) and postseason success. What they did find important were three measures of pitching and defense, which they called the “Secret Sauce”.

The best predictors of October glory are a pitching staff with a high strikeout ratio, a strong team defense and a solid closer. Since scoring is depressed in the postseason, it's valuable to have a pitching staff that avoids bats, a defense that can save runs and a closer than can lock down victories. Jaffe does a great job of explaining in detail why these factors increase in importance in the playoffs and concludes (emphasis mine):

None of this is meant to knock the offense, which has helped make them a near-lock for the playoffs. But it’s the Secret Sauce that bodes well for their chances once they get there. The last time the team made such a drastic leap in the Sauce rankings was 1996—which, fans will remember, was the end of their last excruciatingly long World Series drought.

Since Jaffe is a BP guy, he's not concerned with jinxes and is speaking in no uncertain terms because their odds have the Yanks' odds of making the postseason are at 99.4%.

The leap he's talking about comes mainly from a jump from 26th to 3rd in Fielding Runs Above Average and a big boost in K/9. The increase in strikeouts is obviously driven by the acquisitions of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett but the cosmic leap in defense is harder to explain. Even with Derek Jeter suddenly above average at short and Hideki Matsui, Jason Giambi, and Bobby Abreu out of the field all together it's hard to imagine the Yankees jumping 23 slots in that ranking.

Do I trust the rankings implicitly? No, but it certainly is encouraging to know that the Yanks have a team built for success not only in the regular season, but into October as well. Whether or not that translates into anything this year remains to be seen. Those are the chickens that Jaffe doesn't dare to count either.

Today In Dumb Headlines

"CC Sabathia proves he's a winner by earning fifteenth victory against Boston"

I'm glad that we now have this "proof", because had he earned his 15th victory against the Angels, he still would have been a total loser. Or if it was his only his 14 victory, we would still have to suspend our judgement. We can't blame John Harper for the writing that, but we sure can for this:

On the matter of pitching, after all, regardless of the era there are the Javier Vasquez types, pitchers whose stuff always seems to be better than their records, and then there are the Jack Morris types, pitchers whose records are more impressive than their ERA because they know how to win.

Sabathia gave the Yankees something of a Jack Morris game Sunday night, at least by the pitch-count limits of today's game, going 6 2/3 innings, allowing four runs, three earned.

Harper then cites affirmative quotes from Joe Girardi, but oddly finishes by talking about Sabathia's shortcomings in the postseason, apparently implying that he forgets how to win once the playoffs roll around.

I get the feeling a lot of pitchers "know how to win" games when the guy who they are opposing gives up 8 runs. Craig from Shysterball points us to a Baseball Prospectus article which shows that Jack Morris was not uniquely adept at "pitching to the scoreboard" and shuns the notion in general. Pitchers shouldn't ever want to give up runs, and just like hitters trying to score them, can't really control when it happens, just how often it does in the long run.

Earlier this year, we noted that the Yankees were 11-11 in Sabathia's starts primarily because he was receiving the least run support out of any of their 4 regular starters. Since then, he's ripped off 5 straight victories while the team has averaged just under 8 runs per game in support of him. It's not rocket science or psychology here, folks. The guy is a good pitcher and when he's backed by a strong offensive performance, he's likely to walk away with the win.

Rob Neyer Grants Yankees Postseason Berth!

Great news isn't it? Here's Neyer responding to a tweet from Tyler Kepner proclaiming that Teixeira is the AL MVP, "no question":

No question? Honestly? Maybe Kepner just means that Teixeira will win, rather than that he should win.

What inspired this particular post? An essentially meaningless home run, hit well after midnight (back in New York). I mean, I'm sorry, but the Yankees aren't exactly in the middle of a pennant race anymore. They've got a huge lead over the second-place Red Sox. And if the Red Sox should somehow mount a late charge, the Yankees have a huger lead over the Rangers for that other postseason berth.

I guess what Neyer is trying to do here is gauge the impact this will have on the MVP voting, not give his own feelings on who should win the award, which he does later in the post. He goes both ways on it, though. The same people who weren't paying attention because it was past their bedtime are going to think it doesn't count because the Yankees were too far ahead? Right or wrong, the better the Yankees are, the more it helps the MVP chances of Teix or Jeter, who Neyer apparently doesn't consider a "viable candidate" either by oversight or purposeful omission.

"Essentially meaningless"? I don't care that the Yankees have a 98.9% chance of making the playoffs right now, a game winning shot in the top of 9th inning is still pretty significant. A bigger lead will give the Yankees more flexibilty coming into the postseason, allowing them to skip Joba's starts freely and align their rotation, if they are in fact fortunate enough to still hold the lead when the season comes down to the wire. Which is a major presumption at this point. As good as the Yanks have looked, I don't think you're going to find too many people in that clubhouse who think it's a forgone conclusion. They are one major injury away from looking awfully vulnerable.

Winning Against Winners

Perhaps you've noticed that the Yanks have struggled against the better teams they've faced this year. You'd be on to something, because they are only 24-29 against teams with winning records. Maybe you think that is a bad thing since those are the teams they are likely to face in the playoffs. Would you be wrong? (h/t Shyster @ CTB)

This actually isn't a bad sign at all, though. In fact, it's the mark of a champion. In recent years, winning the World Series has had nothing to do with being good against good competition. Five of the nine champions this decade posted losing regular-season records against opponents that were .500 or better, including the 2008 Phillies (43-46).

Conversely, teams that excel against tough opponents tend to flop in the postseason. Not since the 1995 Braves has the team with the best record against .500-or-better competition won the World Series that same season. The Los Angeles Angels keep demonstrating this: They dominated such opponents in 2007 (.594) and 2008 (.605), yet lost in the first round both years.

Our pal Craig goes along with this theory and throws out an admittedly "untestable yet moderately-satisfying hypothesis" comparing baseball teams to marathon runners. He proposes some interesting ideas, but I'm not buying the original premise of the article.

First, let's point out the sketchy logic from the quote above.

1. I wouldn't say winning a World Series has "nothing to do" with how teams play against good competition. Five of the past nine champions is A) a limited sample size and B) only one Game 7 (in 2002) away from saying 5/9 had winning records against opponents that were .500+.
   
   
2. Why would the author, Darren Everson, break it at 2000? What happens when you go back from 1995-1999? Every single World Series Champion had a winning record against winning teams during the regular season. So from 1995-2008, nine out of 14 have fit that mold. Kind of undermines the point of the article, huh? Don't let the facts...
   
   
3. "Not since the 1995 Braves has the team with the best record against .500-or-better competition" - Eight teams make the playoffs and one can have the best record against +.500 competition. Do you know how many times the team with the best record overall has won over that span? One (and a half). The 1998 Yankees (114 wins) and the 2007 Red Sox who, along with the Indians, won 96 games that year.
   
   
4. "The Los Angeles Angels keep demonstrating this..." - By doing it twice in a row? Not much of a trend when looking at 14 years of data, is it?

One further point that I would like to add is that by definition, the entire league plays under .500 ball against teams with winning records.

Starting with 1996 (so as to include only 162 game seasons) 191 out of a possible 386 team seasons have ended with winning records. In total, those teams are 17,321 - 13,611, which equates to a .570 winning percentage. So on average, teams can expect to go 35-46 if they play 81 games against teams with winning records. That makes .500 against those teams look pretty good, right?

Is it imperative that a team plays well against winning teams during the regular season? No, but if you take an objective look at the data and go a little further back, it certainly appears to be a good sign.

Game One: Heating Pads, Crazy Eyes & Facial Expressions

The run total is not nearly as discouraging as the indivisible K/BB ratio. For what it's worth, the guy does seem to lose his control in what are perceived to be big games. He has 22 walks in 5 postseason games (4.4 per game), and in 254 regular season games has 523 (2.05 per). Back in December, I took a deeper look at this.

The real concern is what he was trying to treat with that heating pad in between innings. Although if it was serious, I doubt Girardi would have kept running him out there.

I was a little surprised by the thundering boos that rained down on Mark Teixeira. Okay, the guy is from the Baltimore area, but aside from taking the best available contract, did he really do that much to offend Orioles fans? The guy above has some real hate in his (crazy) eyes. I guess when your team trots out Jeremy Guthrie as their "ace", you have to look elsewhere for things to get worked up about.

Click on that picture to get a larger view. Every single person has a priceless expression on their face. It would more amusing if that wasn't the fatal blow that the O's dealt to the Yanks.

Not exactly how we drew it up.