This Never Would Have Happened If Posada Was Driving

The only way this could be a better metaphor for Game 5 of the World Series is if it happened in front of McFadden's (h/t BBTF):

"[Molina] was heading north on River Road with two other passengers to pick up his belongings at the stadium when he smelled something burning," said Edgewater Fire Chief Joe Chevalier. "When he saw smoke, he pulled over at the Mariner and someone from the marina came over with an extinguisher but it was no use."

Shortly after, Chevalier arrived on the scene to find the SUV fully engulfed in flames just inside the entrance to the Edgewater Mariner.

Let's try that again:

"[Molina] was [starting in Game 5 of the World Series] for [the Yankees] to pick up [their 27th Championship] at [Citizen's Bank Park] when he smelled something burning," said [Yankees pitching coach Dave Eiland]. "When he saw smoke, he [made a mound visit] and someone from the [dugout] came over with an extinguisher but it was no use."

Shortly after, [Joe Girardi] arrived on the scene to find [A.J. Burnett] fully engulfed in flames just inside the entrance to the [third inning].

In the latter scenario, it would have been Chase Utley that started the blaze.

You'll Get Nothing And Like It

With a hat tip to RAB, Joel Sherman tweets that the Yankees have declined to offer arbitration to any of their free agents. While this makes perfect sense for unclassified free agents such as Hideki Matsui, Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston Jr, and Jose Molina, not offering arbitration to Johnny Damon, Andy Pettitte, and Xavier Nady means that the Yankees will not receive draft pick compensation if any of them sign elsewhere.

I can understand the Yankees' thought process here, though as I stated previously, I think it was worth the risk to offer arbitration to Damon. That said, the Yankees had the market figured perfectly last year in declining offers to Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Giambi.

Nothing is settled as a result of this. Pettitte will almost assuredly be in the Bronx if he chooses to play next year, and I still think that Damon and the Yankees make the most sense for each other. Nady is likely gone, but not offering him arbitration doesn't preclude him from coming back if that's what both parties want.

Damon now becomes a more attractive candidate to other teams, as they are free to sign him without surrendering a draft pick. This likely won't impact the Yankees at all, as their refusal to offer him arbitration indicates that they have a dollar amount in mind for Damon and they're not going to exceed that be it in arbitration or on the open market. What it does signal though is that if the Yankees are truly interested in bringing Damon back, they are apparently willing to offer at least an option year if not a guaranteed second year. It's highly unlikely that Damon will be accept a one year contract on the open market, and arbitration was the club's best bet to ensure keeping him for one year and one year only.

We'll be back in the morning with a run down of who amongst the Type A's was offered arbitration and how it might impact the Yankees free agent shopping.

Molina & Gardner In, Melky Move To Come

That's the news according to LoHud eminating from the press conference with Joe Girardi. Jose Molina will again be catching A.J. Burnett while Brett Gardner gets the start in center over Jerry Hairston, Jr., thankfully. The bottom third of the order was going to be a black hole one way or another, at least they have someone who is comfortable and excellent in center field and fast on the bases in Gardner, should he ever reach them.

Girardi also said that the Yanks are in discussions with the MLB in regards to a roster move with Melky Cabrera. We'll use this post to keep you updated on those developments and separate this stuff from the preview which is going up at 5:30.

Update: 5:26: Again, per LoHud, the Yankees will hear from the MLB concerning their roster move at 6PM.

Update 5:59: Ramiro Pena (not Freddy Guzman as we speculated earlier) will replace Melky Cabrera. Apparently the Yanks value Pena's versatility in the field over Guzman's speed on the bases. Pena has not appeared on the postseason roster at any point up until now but he may be thrust into action early. His best chance of appearing in a game will probably be tonight given that the Yanks are in a National League park and will likely be replacing Jose Molina at some point.

Update 6:27: Interesting tidbit from Mark Feinsand of which I was not aware:

According to the MLB press release, postseason rules provide that injured players can be replaced during the World Series if the severity of the injury, as determined by Major League Baseball, is such that it would require a disabled list assignment during the regular season.

All's Well That Ends Well

Good morning, Fackers. We can all exhale a bit as the Yankees did what they had to do last night in order to even the series on the way to Philly. The outcome was on the line until the very last at bat, and there were a lot of people that were acquitted of some bad decision making when Matt Stairs went down swinging.

Joe Girardi made a couple less-than-optimal line up choices, Derek Jeter made a terrible, inadvisable bunt attempt with an 0-2 count, and the umpires made two incorrect calls on double plays within an inning of each other. Fortunately, the two guys that Girardi inserted both responded with positive contributions, and the mistakes by Jeter and the umpires were saved from more intense scrutiny by Mariano Rivera's two inning save.

Most importantly, A.J. Burnett came up with a dominant performance and saved Girardi's hide from the most obvious backlash. Burnett needs to pitch well in every game Molina catches him or else it becomes a bad decision in hindsight. Molina did a good job of corralling the breaking balls he bounced in the dirt and they seemed to be on the same page in terms of pitch selection for the most part.

As far as his offensive contributions go, Jose Molina was never in real danger of getting a hit in his first at bat as he took six pitches and fouled one back from Pedro Martinez on the way to working a walk. He grounded out to weakly to third in his only other plate appearance.

The one play where Molina truly made his presence felt was on a snap throw to first, just inches behind Raul Ibanez's head, to erase Jayson Werth's lead off single in the fourth. You can debate the merits of having Molina behind the plate in terms of pitch calling, but it's inarguable that Molina's throwing arm is a tremendous asset. Posada simply never makes that play.

Surprisingly, with Philly's lefty-heavy line up and two righties in Burnett and Rivera on the mound, Jerry Hairston's defense didn't really come into play. He didn't make any great plays nor did he miss any by a couple of feet. What he did do was come up with a big base hit to lead off the 7th inning against Pedro and Brett Gardner (who replaced him as a pinch runner) came around to score an important insurance run.

The end goal of a manager's moves should be to put the best team on the field with the information available at the time. Joe Girardi's two decisions worked out well for him, but doesn't mean that they were the right ones. Girardi got away with those calls, but Derek Jeter wasn't so fortune with the choice he made.

With two men on, no one and a run already under their belts in the 7th inning, the Yankees looked as if they were poised to break the game open. Against Chan Ho Park, Jeter showed bunt and took a strike on the first pitch. He watched another fastball go past for the second strike. Before the third pitch, Tim McCarver boldly stated that "there's no way Jeter's bunting again", which seemed like a mind-numbingly obvious point at the time, but Jeter actually did bunt.

Bunting with one or no strikes in this spot with a hitter as good as Jeter at the plate is a bad decision. Bunting with two strikes - where the most likely scenario is giving away an out to move the runners over and the second most likely one is to bunt foul and give away an out for nothing - is inexcusable. Jeter would have to have gotten that bunt down something like 80 or 90% of the time (which is clearly much higher than even the best bunter's success rate) for that to be a defensible play. He admitted that it was a "stupid decision" during the postgame press conference but had the luxury of a win to cover up his impulsive and foolish move.

Brian Gorman was similarly left off the hook by the result of the game. He made two wrong calls at a very crucial part of the contest but luckily the one that was the biggest rally killer was called against the team that was already leading. The difference between having the bases loaded and being out of the inning like the Yankees would have been had Gorman saw the ball hit the ground ebfore Ryan Howard's glove is 1.65 runs on average. Had Gorman got the play at first involving Utley in the top of the 8th, it would have been the difference of .538 runs. So please don't tell me "we're even" because the calls went both ways.

Gorman was not in a great position to see the ball on the play by Howard, but the first baseman had to reach across his body and glove the ball thumb down to make the play; more likely the way to catch a short hop than a ball on the fly. Howard reacted as if he didn't catch the ball when he fired it wildly to second base but Gorman had already made the call. It might not have been his fault, but that's all the more reason to institute replay; to examine plays that the umpire could not have made correctly with any level of certainty.

Flying under the radar in all of this is Alex Rodriguez, who went 0-4 with three strikeouts last night and is now 0-8 with 6 Ks in the series. Luckily for him, there are other things to make a big deal out of.

The reactions to a win are always going to be softened by the enjoyment of the victory. We should be thankful that the Yanks came away on top because if they had lost last night, it would have left a bitter taste for a long, long time.

Back To Even

For all the complaining that we did about Joe Girardi's managerial decisions before the game, the difference between having not having Jorge Posada and Gardner/Hinske/Swisher in the line up was not that big in terms of run expectancy. When the tires met the road in the Bronx last night, the most critical factor to the Yankees' success was the performance of their starting pitcher.

We had already seen both sides of A.J. Burnett this postseason, the good in the Game 2 of the ALDS & ALCS and the bad out in Game 5 in Anaheim. He was probably the cause for the most concern heading into the game, but the moves Girardi made with the line up temporarily put that aside.

What we got from Burnett last night was his best start of this postseason in the biggest spot he's been asked to pitch. He allowed the Phillies to score first when, after he had recorded two outs, they stacked up a ground rule double by Raul Ibanez and a single by Matt Stairs to go ahead 1-0.

Meanwhile, the Yankees were making Pedro Martinez throw a lot of pitches but not getting much out of it. Through three innings, Pedro had thrown 60 pitches but the Yankees had managed only two baserunners and no runs. Surprisingly, Jose Molina was one of the ones who reached base and did so via a 7 pitch at bat ending in a walk.

Leading off the 4th inning the Yanks finally broke through. Pedro threw Mark Teixeira two back to back change ups - both out of the zone - but Teixeira extended his bat to the second one, reaching out to redirect it into the Yankees' bullpen and tie the game at 1.

Both pitchers continued to deal through the middle innings. After the run in the second inning Burnett shut down the Phillies, allowing only 4 men to reach base in the next 5 innings, one of whom (Jayson Werth) was picked off by a Jose Molina snap throw. He ended with a flourish as he struck out Raul Ibanez and Matt Stairs both looking - the duo who had combined for the Phillies only run - on the way to a 1-2-3 7th inning.

His final line was 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9K. Thanks in part to delivering first pitch strikes to 22 of the 29 batters he faced, Burnett limited his walks and needed 108 pitches to get through those seven frames.

Pedro settled down after the homer from Teixeira and struck out both Teix and A-Rod to begin the sixth inning. Hideki Matsui came to the plate and immediately fell behind 0-2. Still behind 1-2 three pitches later, Matsui swung at a breaking ball well below the strikezone and lifted it out over the right field wall, giving the Yankees their first lead of the World Series.

In between the sixth and seventh inning, FOX showed a shot of Charlie Manuel talking to Pedro in the dugout, seemingly asking him if he was okay to go out to the mound for the 7th inning. He had thrown 99 pitches and given up a home run in the last inning, so it seemed like a good time to yank him. However, Pedro nodded and sure enough, took the mound when the 7th inning began.

First up was Jerry Hairston, Jr., who fell behind in the count 0-2. He took a ball and fouled off three more pitches before chipping a curveball to right field for a single. Melky strode to the plate next and showed bunt on the first pitch. It was just a decoy as the Yanks put on the hit and run and the next one and Melky jerked a single to right of his own.

This brought up Jose Molina's spot in the line up and Posada was called to pinch hit. Manuel, probably trying to avoid a Grady Little-type situation (1st & 3rd, Posada up, leaving Pedro in too long), went to his bullpen for Chan Ho Park. Perdo was obligatorily taunted on his way back to the dugout but put up a respectable performance, striking out 8 in 6 innings while giving up 3 runs, 6 hits and two walks.

Off of Park, Posada notched the third straight single of the inning, driving home a run. Up next, Derek Jeter bunted the first pitch foul and took the next one for a strike. Next, in a move that was certainly not called by the bench, Jeter attempted to bunt with two strikes but it went foul for an out. Why a hitter as good as Jeter would choose to bunt with an 0-2 count there is beyond comprehension. But wasn't the costliest error of the inning to the Yanks.

That would belong to first base umpire Brian Gorman. Against a new pitcher, Scott Eyre, Johnny Damon looped a ball towards an approaching Ryan Howard at first base. At full speed the first time through, I assumed the ball had bounced. I think Ryan Howard did do as it whipped the ball towards second base to try to get the advancing Posada instead if simply walking to first to tag the base. However, Gorman called the ball a catch and the Phillies got a double play. Instead of having the bases loaded with one out, the Yanks were out of the inning.

Since the Yankees only had a two run lead, Mariano Rivera was summoned for another two inning save. The Phillies worked him in the 8th, putting two men on base and making Mo throw 23 pitches despite inducing an inning ending double play to Chase Utley. Replays showed that Utley was safe by a fraction at first. C.B. Bucknor and Phill Cuzzi have already mailed their thank you cards to Gorman.

In the top of the 9th, Rivera allowed a two out double to Ibanez but struck out Matt Stairs swinging to end the game. The Yanks won 3-1 and the terrible managerial decisions before the game and umpiring mistakes within it won't be as tough to swallow. Molina and Hairston both made significant positive contributions. The Yanks didn't need those extra insurance runs. The Series is all square and headed to Philly.

World Series Game 2: Idiot Wind

Here's a new one guys, Joe Girardi is driving us insane before the game even starts!

When Francisco Cervelli was dropped from the World Series roster, I said that we could "almost certainly infer" that Jorge Posada would be catching A.J. Burnett in Game 2. Earlier today I threw out the option of benching Nick Swisher and starting Brett Gardner in center field but said that I was "certain Joe Girardi won't do it".

Well friends, Joe Girardi certainly did remove Nick Swisher from the line up, but in favor of Jerry Hairston, Jr., not Gardner. Why, you might ask? Because Hairston totally crushes Pedro! In 31 career plate appearances, he has a line of .370/.433/.519. Pretty awesome, right?

/touches earpiece

What's that? Ah, I've just been told that the last time Hairston faced him was in two thousand fucking four when Pedro was a completely different pitcher. Since then, Hairston made over 1606 plate appearances for four different teams. But don't worry, those 31 PAs are totally relevant.

Hairston's a pretty good defender, but he's not about to take over center field and allow Melky Cabrera to play right, thereby shoring up two positions like a certain gritty, guttier option would have. (By the way, Hairston has only started one game in RF all year). He's not going to steal bases like Gardner theoretically could either. He's also 10 for his last 65, for what it's worth.

I was semi-in-favor-of benching Swish this morning so I guess I can't complain too much. But to do it in favor Hairston doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Even Eric Hinske, who figures to get some ABs in Philly and might benefit from a tune up would be a better choice. The Molina decision, on the other hand, doesn't make any fucking sense at all.

One might have thought that after the first inning of Game 5 in Anaheim, the sacred union of Burnett and Molina would have been all but dissolved. After all, Burnett gave up 4 runs in the first frame without recording an out and with Molina catching him. After Posada pinch hit for Molina, he and Burnett worked well enough to record two scoreless innings. A.J. gave up two baserunners in the seventh inning who eventually came around to score, but some of that falls on the relievers. Or at the very least, you could conclude that the catcher isn't the problem, it's Burnett. And then simply insert the better offensive option behind the plate.

Now everyone enters the game with a prepackaged scapegoat. If Burnett fares poorly, Girardi should have had Posada behind the plate. If the offense is dead and Jerry Hairston goes 0-4 with 3 Ks, Joe should have left Swisher in. He's inadvertently putting more pressure on his players because they now have to come up big to validate his inexplicable gutsy decisions. Ask Joe Torre how moving A-Rod down to 8th in the order worked out for him.

Oh yeah, Pedro is starting for the Phillies, but we already went over that.

As Jorge Posada said before Game 2 of the ALDS "we'd better win". Because if the Yankees don't, the blame is going to be aimed squarely at Joe Girardi. No pressure, Yanks.

People see me all the time and they just can't remember how to act,
Their minds are filled with big ideas, images and distorted facts.
Even you, yesterday you had to ask me where it was at,
I couldn't believe after all these years, you didn't know me better than that.

Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your mouth,
Blowing down the backroads headin' south.
Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your teeth,
You're an idiot, babe.
It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe.

This Is Not The Regular Season!

As we covered in yesterday's roster changes, Francisco Cervelli was removed from the Yankees roster for the World Series, leaving the Yankees with a more conventional two catcher roster construction. Given the impact this move has on the Yankees' roster flexibility, we assumed that Jorge Posada would now be catching A.J. Burnett. Then came Joe Girardi's pre-game media session yesterday:

“It’s something (catching Molina) that we’ll discuss,” he said. “But as I’ve said all along, it’s worked pretty well. And in the course of the season you go with two catchers all the time. I’m still comfortable using Molina, and if I have to, pinch hit Jorge.”

/holds breath
//counts to ten
///exhales

Where to begin on this one? Joe Girardi did some things this regular season that pissed me off. He has made some decisions this post-season that I thought were the wrong ones to make. At the same time, he's taken some heat that he probably didn't deserve. This latest comment has got my blood up again.

Here are some other things that you do in the course of the season:

• You use five starters, but I haven't seen Joba Chamberlain before the seventh inning, Chad Gaudin in anything but mop up duty, or Sergio Mitre anywhere in the tri-state area during the post-season.


• You (supposedly) give A-Rod a day off once a week. But he's played every inning of every post-season game, including the one that was safe enough for Chad Gaudin to pitch.


• You give injury prone veterans like Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui a day off every so often to keep them fresh, but they've started every game of the playoffs.


• You keep Matsui and his balky knees out of the field all season long, but you don't rule out using him in the field in Games Three through Five.


• You give a slumping player like Nick Swisher a day off when he's in a four for thirty two slump, but he too has started every game.


• You don't use Mariano Rivera for 4+ out saves everyday, but he's averaging four outs per appearance in the post-season and has two outings of two plus innings.

And I'm not remotely suggesting that Girardi should have done otherwise on any of the six above points. What I am trying to say is that when it comes to line ups or certain pitching moves in the post-season, the decision making process is often quite different than in the regular season. Just because Jose Molina would get a start each time through the rotation in the regular season does not mean he should do so in the World Series.

The Yankees are in an 0-1 hole; starting Molina tonight would be borderline suicidal. Yet Girardi was non-committal about who would catch when making his post-game comments last night.

I was dubious of Molina's ability to coax a better game out of A.J. Burnett to begin with. Burnett's performance in Game Five of the ALDS only shoots more holes in that logic. At this point, I'm diametrically opposed to the idea of Molina behind the plate at any point unless it's in the event of an injury or a blow out. If the Yankees choose to go with a three man rotation, Burnett's second start would be at Citizens Bank Park. If Molina were to start that game the Yankees line up would feature what amounts to two automatic outs at the bottom of the order.

Part of me feels bad to hammer on points like this with the Yankees being in the World Series, but poor decisions like these can be the difference between winning and losing. Girardi is free to make whichever choices he wishes, but please don't insult my intelligence by trying to defend an unorthodox move as something that would be done in the regular season.

ALCS Game 2: Gambler's Roll

Weather permitting, the Yankees and Angels will play Game Two of the American League Championship Series tonight. While the weather tonight shouldn't be any colder than last night, the chance of rain is much greater, as there is a nasty looking storm system sitting southwest of the city and heading towards the Stadium. If they can't go tonight, word is the make up would be scheduled for Sunday afternoon at 4:30.

With Game Three currently slated for Monday afternoon in Anaheim at 4:13 EDT, both teams would like to avoid playing Sunday if at all possible. Getting the game in tonight will give the teams a full day to rest following the cross country flight. The Yankees particularly will want to get tonight's game in though, as a rainout tonight would mean that if A.J. Burnett were to come back to pitch a potential Game Five, as is the current plan, he would be doing so on just three days rest. If the Yankees elect not to pitch Burnett under those conditions, it would likely result in Chad Gaudin matching up against Angels' ace John Lackey.

As we saw in Game Five of last year's World Series, Major League Baseball's now-official policy is that once a post-season game begins, it will be played to its completion. So even if the game begins tonight, it may not end until sometime tomorrow. And given that at present tomorrow's forecast is worse than tonight's, I imagine every effort will be made to get this game played this evening. In the post-season starting the game becomes the decision of MLB, not the home team as in the regular season, but I'm confident MLB will roll the dice and try to get this one in tonight.

MLB won't be the only ones taking a gamble with their decisions tonight, as both managers have made unorthodox line up decisions that, if they don't work out, could potentially place them in a media storm as intense as anything brewing in the Tri-State area right now. As we examined on Thursday, Joe Saunders will take the hill for the Halos and Jose Molina will be behind the dish for the Yankees.

As we saw last night, John Lackey struggled to get a feel for his curveball in the frigid conditions. Earlier today, the Yankees Universe predicted that Saunders would have similar problems tonight giving A.J. Burnett an edge, while over at LoHud John Flaherty thinks the weather will have a bigger impact on Burnett's arsenal. So I'm not sure what to think on this one.

Weather aside, I think the Yankees have the edge in the pitching match up. A.J. Burnett posted better numbers than Joe Saunders this year and has a better track record. Again, as we mentioned earlier this week, Saunders gave up the second most HR in the AL this year and had the second highest HR rate. Last night was just the second time in 86 games that Yankee Stadium did not yield a long ball. Maybe the weather supresses power again tonight, or maybe the combination of Saunders and the ballpark makes up for last night.

Saunders faced the Yankees twice this year, both in Anaheim. He allowed 11 baserunners and 5 ER in 5 IP in taking a no decision on July 10th, then went 8.1 IP with just 7 baserunners and 2 ER in getting the win on September 21st, giving him a line of 1-0 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 13.1 IP. He gave up two home runs to Alex Rodriguez and one to Hideki Matsui. Saunders did not appear in this year's Division Series, but had a disastrous start (4.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB) in last year's series against Boston.

A.J Burnett made two starts against the Angels this year, on April 30th in the Bronx and in season series finale in Anaheim on September 23rd. In the first game he allowed 4 ER in 7 IP and received a no decision. In the second he went just 5.2 innings but allowed just two runs, fanned 11, and picked up the win. He made his first career post-season start in Game Two of the ALDS and allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP. He did issue five free passes though after leading the AL in walks this year; look for Bobby Abreu and his minions to attempt to exploit that tonight.

As mentioned, Jose Molina will catch Burnett again. Hideki Matsui remains the DH, which is a wise move since he destroys lefties. This will allow the Yankees to insert Jorge Posada directly into the game when Molina is inevitably pinch hit for at some point. Molina will bat ninth, with Nick Swisher taking Posada's customary six spot and Melky Cabrera moving up to eighth.

This will be an interesting one. If the weather doesn't postpone the game, it still has the potential to delay the game deep into the night and to be factor for pitchers, fielders, and batted balls. Saunders, coming off a lackluster season, gets the Game Two nod over ALDS Game Two starter Jered Weaver and over a better lefty in Scott Kazmir. Jose Molina once again plays over the far offensively-superior Jorge Posada. MLB, Scioscia, and Girardi are all taking their turns rolling the dice tonight. Here's hoping that the Yankees are the ones with the hot hand.



You know the gambler he rides, rides on a fool's train
Trading silver for gold
But his luck will change, time takes its toll
On a gambler's roll

Two Thoughts On Game Two

I know Game One isn't even until tomorrow, but here are two thoughts on the two hot button issues from this post-season, both of which affect Game Two (weather permitting).

First, Mike Scioscia's decision to pitch Joe Saunders in Game Two has been widely questioned, and with good reason in my opinion. I understand Scioscia's desire to utilize a lefty in Yankee Stadium in order to neutralize the Yankee lefties and switch hitters, since Yankee Stadia have historically favored lefties.

However, this Yankee Stadium has been a launching pad of historic proportions through its first 85 games. And as I pointed out when Saunders pitched against the Yanks three weeks ago, he is particularly prone to giving up the gopher ball. Saunders surrendered 29 long balls this year, tied for second in the American League despite the fact that an August DL stint limited him to 186 IP on the year. His 1.4 HR/9 also tied for second worst in the AL. Meanwhile, fellow lefty Scott Kazmir has more experience in the new Yankee Stadium, is a better pitcher overall, and allowed just 1.0 HR/9 this year, slightly less than league average.

A further thought regarding Saunders, Yankee batters this year hit .282/.360/.476 against right handed pitching and a slightly better across the board .286/.365/.480 against left handed pitching. There's no discernible platoon advantage there. The Angels would be best off throwing their best available pitcher in Game Two, and that pitcher is not Joe Saunders.

The second issue is whether Jose Molina will again catch A.J. Burnett. The Yankees have yet to announce that decision, though I'm inclined to believe that he will. But, even if he doesn't, I think we may see a bit of Jose Molina in this series anyway. Despite ranking just 11th in the AL in SB%, the Angels ranked third in the league in stolen bases with 148. In an effort to neutralize their running game, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jose Molina behind the plate in the late innings of game if the Yankees are leading.

This happened once already this year, early in the season in this game. Afterwards, Jorge Posada left the park without addressing the media. If this were to happen in the ALCS, the media storm would dwarf the Molina-gate squall that preceded Game Two of the ALDS.

I'm not sure what to make of this one. No one is going to confuse Jorge Posada with vintage Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate. And Posada shouldn't put his ego ahead of the good of the team. But, given that the Angels were below average in SB% and that all Yankee catchers, including Posada, were above league average CS%, it might be to the Yankees' advantage to tempt the Angels to give outs away on the bases.

Furthermore, if you subtract out caught stealings attributed to the pitcher making a pickoff attempt, Jorge Posada's catcher's caught stealing percentage of 21.6% is close to the league average of 21.9% and superior to Jose Molina's 17.9%. In fact, though the sample size is relatively small, the numbers suggest that if the Yankees decide to make a running based defensive substitution behind the plate, the nod should go to Franciso Cervelli who had an off the charts catcher's caught stealing percentage of 38.1% (8 of 21) in the equivalent of about 27 games behind the dish.

Guzman In, Hinske Out

Via LoHud, Joe Girardi announced that Freddy Guzman will be added to the ALCS roster at the expense of Eric Hinske. They've got the audio and the relevant part can be found around the 2:00 mark.

Joel Sherman (among others) advocated this move yesterday, reasoning that while Hinske does have a solid bat, there are few occasions that he would be used:

The Yanks should stick with Hinske only if they intend to start him vs. Jered Weaver, against whom Hinske is 4-for-11 with a homer lifetime. Hinske could start in left for struggling Johnny Damon (3-for-19 vs. Weaver with no extra-base hits) or as the DH rather than Hideki Matsui (2-for-10 vs. Weaver) or Jorge Posada (2-for-14, but with a homer and double).

My gut, though, tells me Girardi plans to ignore small sample sizes and go with his standard lineup vs. Weaver. In that case, the Yanks should meet Angels' aggression with aggression of their own, and put Guzman on the roster.

We haven't been very big proponents of the Freddy Guzman experiment around here, but we are literally talking about the 25th man on the roster in this case. Hinske didn't leave the dugout except to celebrate during the ALDS, and the presence of Guzman will allow Joe Girardi to start Brett Gardner over Melky Cabrera (which is probably optimal) and still have a pinch runner available on the bench.

It also means that Francisco Cervelli will still be around for the ALCS, creating some interesting possibilities for catching in the later innings. Like we saw in Game 2 against the Twins, when Jose Molina starts, he could be pinch hit for by Jorge Posada, who could later be pinch run for (in this case by Guzman) and replaced by Cervelli for defense. In games Posada starts, the second half of that equation still holds true with Molina being the likely defensive replacement.

Check back in a little while, as Matt will take a closer look at the catching situation for the series.

More Questions Answered

[Graph via]

CC Sabathia and A-Rod quieted a whole bunch of speculation about their ability to perform in October on Wednesday night. Last night, more queries were posed and more responses were offered:

Q: How would A.J. Burnett do in his first postseason start?

A: Awfully damn good. Six innings, one run, six strikeouts, three hits and - the only blemish on his line - 5 walks. Burnett gave up at least one baserunner in every inning he pitched, but did a good job of digging down when it was necessary and limiting the damage.

Q: Did Joe Girardi make the right decision in starting Jose Molina over Jorge Posada?

A: For this game, it would seem he did. Molina played pretty much flawless defense behind the plate and Burnett's stellar performance would seem to have validated that. Molina only got one at bat and Jorge picked up one hit in his three trips to the plate, giving the Yankees a semblance of the best of both worlds. Hopefully this doesn't bond the two at the hip for the rest of the postseason but it certainly worked out the first time around.

Q: Is Mariano Rivera superhuman?

A: No, he was merely good last night. He surrendered only his 4th hit with two outs and runners in scoring position in 51 postseason ABs in the 8th inning, allowing the Yanks to fall behind 3-1. But he wasn't the one who put those runners on (that was Phil Hughes) and he recovered to pitch a scoreless top of the 9th.

Q: Was A-Rod performance on Wednesday just an anomaly? Is he still a choke artist who got lucky in one game?

A: Not so much. He tied the game with a two out RBI single in the 6th and did it again, far more heroically, with a 2 run homer off Joe Nathan in the 9th inning. That's just about as clutch as it gets.

Q: Did C.B. Bucknor make the worst call of the postseason so far?

A: No, that distinction would belong to Phil Cuzzi, who called a ground rule double into the left field corner in the top of the 11th by Joe Mauer foul despite the fact that he was staring directly at it and it landed a foot inside of the foul line. Mauer reached base with a single anyway, but a lead off double changes the complexion of the game completely. Just like I said this morning, thank God there's no instant replay in baseball.

Q: Can David Robertson get it done under pressure?

A: D-Rob was largely relegated to low leverage situations last year and until late in this season but he stacked his strikeout totals so high that his performance became impossible to ignore. After Damaso Marte gave up singles to the two lefties he was called up to face in the top of the 11th, Robertson made his first career postseason appearance. He got off to an inauspicious start, giving up a single to the first batter he faced thereby loading the bases with no one out. It looked bleak for the Yanks, but amazingly, Robertson retired the next three batters and kept the score tied heading into the bottom of the 11th.

Q: Did the Yanks blow their best chance to win the game when they failed to get Brett Gardner in from third base with one out in the bottom of the tenth?

A: Apparently not.

Q: Is Mark Teixeira the new A-Rod?

A: Well, if the A-Rod we are talking about is the one who has gotten better as the pressure has built this postseason, then yes. Because if Teix looked lost at the plate in Game 1, he certainly didn't as Game 2 wore on. He got on base in front of A-Rod in the 9th then ended the game in the 11th with a laser that just cleared the wall next to the left field foul pole.

Q: Was that the fucking best game you've seen in a hell of a long time?

A: Given that any dramatic postseason win is better than any win in the regular season and the Yanks have only won 4 games in the last 4 postseasons... YES. We're gonna be talking about that one for a long while.

ALDS Game 2: It Don't Mean A Thing

When things get underway in the Bronx tonight, whether that's right at 6:07 or not, both teams will send starting pitchers to the hill to make their postseason debuts.

Nick Blackburn was still in the minor leagues in 2006 when the Twins won the AL Central by one game before getting swept in the ALDS by the A's. He made a brief and unheralded debut as a relief pitcher in 2007 but was added to the starting rotation to begin '08 after the departure of Johan Santana. Since then, he has put up two remarkable similar, slightly above average seasons for the Twins. He went 11-11 and had an ERA just over 4, pitching right around 200 innings, striking out just under 100 and walking about 40 in each.

Blackburn hadn't been great leading up to Game 163. He had accrued an ERA of 5.60 over his previous 10 starts, with peripherals even uglier than usual (53 IP: 71H, 16BB, 23K, 9HR, Opponents OPS .885). However, he came up huge in the play-in game, holding the Tigers to one run over 6 1/3 innings pitched, which is probably why Ron Gardenhire has elected to pitch him on short rest tonight. He's not an overpowering guy but can obviously get the job done by changing speeds and locations.

Our boy A.J. Burnett has been in the league for 9 more seasons than Blackburn and was on a team that made the postseason - the 2003 Marlins - but started only 4 games before losing the rest of that season to Tommy John surgery. He was around the team and even played catch on the field at Yankee Stadium during that World Series, but didn't pitch in it. The only other time he's been on a second place team was in 2006 with the Blue Jays but he only made 21 starts for them and they didn't come especially close to making the playoffs. He's made the 4th most starts of any active pitcher not to appear in the postseason.

Does any of this matter? History shows that in the Wild Card era, 134 pitchers have made their postseason debut, and only 14 have had a game score higher than 70. Granted, Burnett would probably rank towards the top of the pack of those pitchers in terms of talent and previous success and 70 is a damn good game score, but the odds are against him making a big splash tonight.

As has been discussed ad naseum, his chances are theoretically bolstered by having Jose Molina as his personal catcher. I probably like Jose Molina more than I should. He makes performing the duties of a catcher look easy with his excellent framing of his pitches and effortless snap throws to first. If nothing else, he should be better at corralling Burnett's errant balls, which should come in handy considering he leads the AL in walks, wild pitches and hit batsmen. But let's remember that how A.J. Burnett fares tonight will have a lot more to do with him than him than the guy he's throwing to. I'm with Jorge, I just hope they win.

Every game in a 5 game series is an important one, but Game 2 is the biggest swing game. it always determines whether the series is even or one team is facing elimination. Depending on what happens under potentially ugly conditions in the Bronx, the Yankees could head to the Twin Cities with the luxury of having three games to get one win or needing to take one of two on the road to avoid elimination. If they lose tonight, their homefield advantage and any edge they gained by taking the longer ALDS won't mean a thing.

There's something else that makes the tune complete,
It don't mean a thing, if it ain't got that swing,
It don't mean a thing all you got to do is sing.

It makes no difference,
If it's sweet or hot,
Just give that rhythm,
Everything you've got,
It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing.

ALDS Roster Finalized

The ALDS roster has been released. There aren't any major surprises, but there are some decisions that I think might be less than optimal.

Here's how it breaks down:

Pitchers (11): Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Rivera, Hughes, Aceves, Robertson, Coke, Marte, Chamberlain, Gaudin

Catchers (3): Posada, Molina, Cervelli

Infielders (5): Teixeira, Cano, Jeter, Rodriguez, Hairston

Outfielders (5): Damon, Cabrera, Swisher, Gardner, Hinske

DH (1): Matsui

The primary reason to take the "A" series for the ALDS was that the extra off day permits the team to use just three starters. The secondary benefit was that the schedule gave the Yankees the option to carry just 10 pitchers, allowing an extra position player on the bench. While it's hard to argue against the presence of any of the eleven pitchers on the roster, the Yankees have punted on the opportunity to bolster the bench.

The presence of Marte and Coke both is necessitated by the Twins' dangerous lefty combo of Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel. Having both Joba Chamberlain and Chad Gaudin is somewhat redundant, but in my opinion both are equally worthy of a roster spot. However, given the way the schedule shakes out, neither pitcher should be used too heavily unless there is an extremely long game. The off days should allow Mo, Hughes, Alf, DRob and the lefties to pitch the bulk of the relief innings.

The Yankee bench is further shortened by the decision to have Jose Molina catch A.J. Burnett in Game 2. This is the only conceivable reason to have Francisco Cervelli on the roster. I like Cervelli as much as the next Yankee fan, and I hope to see him as the back up catcher next year. But barring something disastrous, he shouldn't see the field in the ALDS.

I have mixed feelings about Molina catching Burnett. While it appears that Burnett works better with Molina, I'm not convinced that's the case nor am I convinced of the reliability of the small sample size of data that supports the decision. Either way, the lack of Posada's bat in the line up, and replacing it with Molina's, could negate any perceived or realized advantage on the other side of the ball.

Furthermore, I hope that Cervelli's presence isn't an indication the Posada will DH when Molina catches. Replacing Matsui with Posada is a wash at best, particularly with Matsui's success against southpaws. Confining Posada to DH duty means that Cervelli, who is an incremental offensive upgrade over Molina, would enter the line up when Molina is inevitably pinch hit for in the late innings. Otherwise, the Yankees will lose the DH if Posada moves from DH to behind the plate.

Cervelli's presence also means that Ramiro Pena and Freddy Guzman are off the roster. I certainly haven't been an advocate of having Guzman present for the express purpose of pinch running. However, his absence likely means that Melky Cabrera will be the centerfielder, with Gardner coming off the bench as a pinch runner. As Jay and I have covered several times over the course of the year, we feel that Gardner is the better choice for centerfield.

Pena on the other hand, offers about the same offensive value as Cervelli, with the added benefit of being more versatile defensively and a better pinch running option. While the Yankees shouldn't need one, let alone two utility infielders, having both Hairston and Pena on the roster would allow them to spell both Jeter and A-Rod should a game get out of hand.

In the end, this is all probably much ado about nothing. Given the talent level at the top of the Yankees roster, if the series comes down to the 24th or 25th man on the roster things are likely pretty well screwed anyway. However, as we discussed at over the course of this season, each roster spot is a resource that needs to be allocated in the best way possible. I'm not convinced that this particular group of 25 is the best use of the Yankees resources for the ALDS.

Why Is A.J. Burnett Starting Game 2?

This I don't get, so let's let the first guessing begin!

A.J. Burnett has pitched more recently than Andy Pettitte, so flipping the order means Pettitte will start on 7 days rest while Burnett will start on 4. The Twins two best hitters, Jason Kubel and Joe Mauer are left handed so throwing Pettitte might help keep them out of the short porch in right at the Stadium. Burnett will be caught by a dismal offensive catcher, replacing one of the better bats in the line up with someone who may or may not be replacement level.

The decision forces them to carry three catchers for a 5 game series instead of a pinch runner, who might be a waste of a roster spot, but could theoretically be used in every game. Burnett has pitched in a grand total of zero postseason games. The two guys who stand to be offended by this are dynasty cogs - Pettitte and Posada - in favor of a free agent acquisition and a back up catcher that's probably not going to be around next year.

So why would Joe Girardi choose A.J. Burnett to start in two games of this ALDS including the potential deciding Game 5? Even if Posada figures to catch that Game 5, negating one of the above variables, don't you trust Andy Pettitte to give you a representative effort more than Burnett? Not just because of the lack of postseason experience for Burnett, but the fact that Pettitte surrenders fewer homers and far fewer walks. Wouldn't you trust Andy even more if you were Joe Girardi and had caught him before?

Is Pettitte's shoulder hurting? That would make some sense, and I'd be happy that the Yankees didn't announce that publicly. Are we looking at home/road splits, though? Because those are skewed horribly by Burnett's bad outings at Fenway and have evened out since the All-Star Break. Is Girardi doing this based on Burnett's power "stuff"? Because their K/BB rates are pretty similar and the whole "not giving up walks" part of that equation is a lot more important than striking guys out.

Girardi wasn't around the Yankees back then, but he must have been aware of Joe Torre's decision to start John Flaherty to catch Randy Johnson in Game 3 of the 2005 ALDS. You might recall that didn't work out so well.

If Burnett throws a gem, then fantastic, all's well that ends well. But if this doesn't work out for Girardi, he's going to be taking a world of shit for it. On one hand, you can give him some credit for sticking his neck out and making a very questionable decision and going with his convictions, but on the other hand you can look at this as another instance or overmanaging and a potentially fatal one at that.

I get the feeling that this postseason could bring out the worst fan in some us, should things fail to go as planned. The kind of fan who criticizes announcers and questions the manager. Oh wait, I've already done both and the games haven't even started yet. At least I haven't bitched about the umpiring. We'll leave that to angry Tigers fans.

Molina To Catch Burnett In ALDS

Via LoHud, according to Posada, that's what the plan is. Head on over there for audio with Posada, the relevant questioning starts around the 3:50 mark. He doesn't sound too happy, but he doesn't sound too surprised, either.

Game 161: Over The Hills And Far Away

Down at Tropicana Field, Andy Pettitte will get his final tune up for the postseason. Jorge Posada is catching today, and since tomorrow is a day game after a night game, Jose Molina will be behind the dish for A.J. Burnett once again. Joe from RAB brought up the possibility eariler today and Steve at The Yankee Universe looked a little deeper into the topic. Surely some people will object to taking Jorge out of the line up but he and Burnett don't seem to be on the same page very often. It's one game, and a potential bad outing out of Burnett is going to do a lot more to hurt the Yanks' chances than a good night for Posada at the plate, not to mention the advantage Molina has in controlling the running game.

Jeff Neimann goes for the Rays tonight. He was dominant against the Yankees last time he faced them, going 7 innings and allowing one run while striking out 8 and walking only one batter. He'll be up against a softer Yankees lineup this time, though. Derek Jeter and A-Rod get the night off while Jerry Hairston and Eric Hinske take their places. Brett Gardner will man CF as Melky will start the night on the bench.

Perhaps more interesting than what goes on with the Yankees, however, are the outcomes of the Twins and Tigers games taking place up around Lake Michgan.

The Twins started at 4 and are currently leading the Royals 4-1. Nick Blackburn to his credit has pitched awfully well against Zack Greinke, who had held the Twins scoreless until Joe Mauer singled across a run with two outs in the 6th. Delmon Young then hit a bases-clearing double to put the Twins up by 4. Mike Jacobs then countered with a HR for the Royals. [Update 6:15: Alex Gordon just hit a 2 run shot to make it 4-3] [6:23: The game is tied at 4 as the Royals score another run on a double play] [6:30: Cuddyer jacks one to put the Twins back on top 5-4] [Update 6:44: Joe Nathan shuts it down, Twins win.]

Freddy Garcia goes for the White Sox against Alfredo Figaro and the Tigers in a 7:00 start in Detriot. If the Twins hang on to win, the AL Central will still be undetermined going into the last day of the season. That would mean that Justin Verlander will have to start tomorrow, pushing his start in the ALDS back to Game 2. Unless of course the Twins come all the way back to tie the division, we could be on our way to the crazy play-in game scenario that Matt brought up on Wednesday.

There are still some pieces of the playoff picture yet to fall into place but they aren't going to be determined down in Tampa Bay.

Many is a word that only leaves you guessin',
Guessin' 'bout a thing you really ought to know.
You really ought to know.
I really ought to know.

Impact Of A Potential Hairston Injury

Early yesterday afternoon the Yankees wrapped up their first series victory in Anaheim since May 2004. The lower portions of the bullpen caste system held a one run lead for two and a third innings. Ian Kennedy returned to a Major League mound for the first time in over a year and just months removd from surgery to repair an aneurysm. A playoff spot is clinched and the magic number for the division and homefield is down to five. But there is one potential drawback from yesterday's victory.

One pitch into his seventh inning plate appearance, Jerry Hairston Jr had to leave the game after feeling a pop in his wrist while taking a practice swing. After the game, Peter Abraham reported that Hairston initially injured the wrist earlier this season while he was still with Cincinnati and both an MRI and a cortisone shot nearly two weeks ago. He is scheduled for another MRI today to assess the extent of the damage.

No one would consider Hairston a key part of the Yankees roster, but he certainly serves a valauble role. While his offensive production has fallen off a bit since his arrival, he's getting on base at a good clip (.346 with the Yanks) and he's suffering from a very low BABIP (.233). But Hairston's greatest value comes in his versatility. A second baseman originally, since coming over at the deadline Hairston has appeared 15 times at third, 8 at short, 9 at both of the corner outfield positions, and twice in center.

It's too early to be jumping to conclusions at this point, but if Hairston's injury is enough to shelve him for October, it would likely take the Yankees two roster spots to replace his versatility. Ramiro Pena was a good candidate to make the post-season roster anyway, and he can easily replace, if not exceeed, what Hairston can offer on infield defense. But while Pena did get seven games of experience in centerfield with Scranton this year, he's yet to play the outfield at the Major League level.

The issue is that the Yankees currently don't have any other real outfield options to replace Hairston. This shouldn't be too big of an issue since Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner will be the fourth outfielder anyway. But if Gardner somehow gets burnt as pinch runner, the Yankees are now looking at a less palatable option as a late inning defensive replacement for Johnny Damon. Eric Hinske is present strictly for his bat. So an injury to Hairston could increase the chances of Freddy Guzman making the post-season roster.

If Hairston is out for an extended period, I'd expect the Yankees to use the season's final week to assess their options. This could mean Pena seeing some time in the outfield or Guzman getting a few starts. Depending upon the extent of the injury and what direction the Yankees decide to go in the aftermath, there's even a chance that we could see Austin Jackson before the season is over, and potentially in the post-season as well.

In commenting on Joba Chamberlain early this week, Brian Cashman seemed to indicate that the Yankees would only carry ten pitchers for the ALDS. If that's the case, they'll have a six man bench at their disposal. Jose Molina, Gardbrera, Hinske, and Pena are virtual locks for those spots right now. How the remaining two openings are filled will hinge upon what happens in an MRI tube at some point today.

Ichiro Gives Yanks A Taste Of Their Own Medicine

Well, as that windbag Sterling says about fifteen times per game, you just can't predict baseball. The Yanks go into Seattle, a formerly struggling A.J. Burnett outduels the best pitcher in the league whose last name doesn't rhyme with "Yankee", Mo gets two outs in the ninth, and then - game over. But not the game over you would expect. In two thirds of an inning Mo gave up as many runs as he had since June 12th. June 12th, when Luis Castillo dropped a walk-off can of corn.

King Felix was his usual dominant self, going the distance on just 104 pitches, scattering eight hits and a walk and whiffing three. The only Yankee to give him real trouble was Johnny Damon, who with his three for four night, which included a pair of doubles, ran his career line against the King to 8 for 13 (.615).

The Yankees were able to scratch two runs out, both on sacrifice flies. Derek Jeter led off the game with a single, moved to third on the first of Damon's doubles, then came in on an A-Rod flyball. In the sixth, Damon led off with a double, moved to third on a passed ball, and came in on sacrifice fly from Mark Teixeira.

They would threaten again in the seventh, putting runners on first and third with one out. Joe Girardi allowed Jose Molina to hit for himself, and he bounced into an inning ending double play. It was the last Yankee threat on the night.

A.J. Burnett matched King Felix, throwing the same 104 pitches but getting only seven innings out of them. He made his innings count though, turning in an impressive performance that should temporarily allay any fears about Burnett heading into October. In seven innings, he allowed seven hits, three walks, and struck out six. He allowed just one run, coming in the third inning when the M's strung together a double and a single. Interestingly, had Ichiro not been picked off first base prior to the double, the M's might have had a two run inning for themselves.

After Phil Hughes pitched a perfect eighth, Mariano Rivera took the ball for the ninth with a 2-1 lead. He struck out the first two batters he faced, running his career total to 1,001 and the Yankees' win expectancy to 95.4%. Everything was going according to plan; then it all changed. Pinch hitter Mike Sweeney doubled to right center on the first pitch he saw, bringing Ichiro to the plate. Three for four on the night, Ichiro twice had been picked off first, thwarting potential Seattle rallies. With one pitch from Mo, Ichiro redeemed himself, launching one to right and giving the M's a 3-2 walk-off win.

Losses like this are never fun, but they invariably happen from time to time. I'd much rather get it out of the way in a relatively meaningless September game than have it happen a little further down the line. One thing's for sure though, you can't predict baseball.

Game 147: It's All Over Now, Baby Blue (With Update(s) On Jorge's Suspension)

Tonight will be the final time the Yankees and Blue Jays meet this season. After this, the Jays are free to sail off into oblivion as they only play one series against a team who even factors into the playoff race for the rest of the year. This should give them some extra time to figure out how to discretely kill Vernon Wells or figure out some other way to take his horrific contract off the books. The Yankees, on the other hand, can focus on things like winning the division and setting themselves up for the postseason.

The Yankees will face Brian Tallet for the third time this year. In the first two meetings he made solid showings, allowing two earned runs in six innings each time but took a loss and a no-decision in those two. His most recent outing was not as successful performance-wise, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings on 8 hits and 3 walks, but he walked away with the win because Sergio Mitre and a terrible Yankees defense gave up 11 runs against him.

Instead of drawing Andy Pettitte as was originally intended, Tallet will be facing Chad Gaudin. The versatile righty has made four relief appearances and three starts since coming over from the Padres. Each of those starts has come against a team he has played for in the past; Oakland, Toronto & Tampa Bay and tonight will obviously be no different.

When he squared off with the Blue Jays earlier this month, he allowed 3 runs in 3.2 IP. He had worked three scoreless innings before running to a snag in the 4th where he gave a walk, three singles and a HBP before Alfredo Aceves come on to get the final out.

Gaudin's last start was markedly better, throwing six innings of one run ball against the Rays last Tuesday. He's functioning on long rest, but has been used irregularly ever since joining the team and it hasn't seemed to affect him either positively or negatively.

With the lefty Tallet on the mound, Johnny Damon will get the night off and will be replaced by Jerry Hairston. Even though no word has come down from the MLBPA in regards to Jorge Posada's suspension, Jose Molina will catch tonight, in a pretty transparent attempt by Joe Girardi to diffuse any tensions that might have carried over from last night's skirmish. Update 5:20PM: Via PeteAbe Double Update 6:22PM: Both Jorge Posada and Jesse Carlson have been suspended 4 games and fined $3,000, not $30,000 as orginally reported. Via SportsCenter, By not contesting the suspension, Posada's has been reduced to 3 games.

As a result, Jose Molina will do the catching tonight. The 4 suspension carries less weight for a position player (Posada) than a pitcher (Carlson) meaning the MLB found Jorge to be more at fault for the incident, which I can't really take issue with.

The games between the Yankees and the Blue Jays have been extra contentious ever since the "HA!" episode in June of '07. Since then, the Yanks have dominated the series 30-20 and lead this year 11-6. So let's hope all goes peacefully tonight and the Yanks can move on with the season and leave the unpleasantness of last night and the Blue Jays behind as they move on to bigger and better things.

Leave your stepping stones behind,
Something calls for you.
Forget the dead you've left,
They will not follow you.

What A Difference A Day Doesn't Make

Since August 9th, when the Yankees completed their four game sweep of the Red Sox, they have been on top of the baseball world. They've had the best record in the majors at that point (69-42) and are tied for the best record since (24-11). Much credit goes to their offense, who plated 6.26 runs per game over that time, which would put them on pace to score over 1000 runs if carried out over an entire season. But more importantly, they've relied on solid pitching, holding their opponents to 2 or fewer runs 14 times in the 35 games and winning every one of those.

Andy Pettitte was a major contributor to that success, going 4-0 with a 3.48 ERA while the team went 6-1 in games he appeared in. He was easily the second best starting pitcher on the Yankees over that stretch behind CC Sabathia and one might say the Yankees only other reliable starter behind the big fella.

Yesterday, Matt noted that the the Yankees starting pitcher for tonight, who was supposed to be Andy Pettitte, was listed as "TBA". As he conveyed earlier today, Pettitte was scratched due to a shoulder fatigue, casting some doubt on the Yanks' playoff rotation.

Meanwhile, in Boston, Daisuke Matsuzaka, who many had left for dead this season after he was exiled to Fort Myers, made a triumphant return to the Red Sox rotation, throwing six innings of shutout ball against the Angels. It seemingly breathed life into a team that had just begun to secure it's playoff spot and left some Boston scribes positively giddy.

After the Red Sox won that game 4- 0 1, the now infamous battle between Carlson and Posada took place, which will most likely cost the Yanks their starting catcher for 5 or 6 games coming down the stretch. Posada's actions led several beat writers to chide him as if he were their son, all pointing to the fact that he could have harmed the Yankees postseason chances if someone got injured during the brawl.

As a result, it might seem as though the Yankees are swirling in chaos while the Red Sox are poised for postseason glory. Fortunately for Yankees fans, the truth, as always, lies somewhere in between. Matsuzka is not likely to have completely reinvented himself nor is Pettitte's shoulder injury necessarily going to have an ill effect going forward. Posada will serve his suspension and his place will be filled just fine by Jose Molina and Francisco Cervelli.

With the finish line now in view, every little thing that happens takes on a percieved added significance. Every loss can be portrayed as a harbinger of a mortal weakness and every triumph an indication of What It Takes To Win In October®. Go ahead and read the tea leaves, but don't forget that they are going to look different every single day until October 7th.