World Series Game 4: Gimme Three Steps

After dropping the first game of the World Series to the untouchable Cliff Lee, the Yankees have ridden a brilliant pitching performance by A.J. Burnett and Mariano Rivera in Game 2 and a breakout offensive effort in Game 3 to a 2-1 series lead. Having lost the edge of homefield advantage by splitting the two games at Yankee Stadium, the Bombers have wrestled it back. They hold the better hand in tonight's game as well because CC Sabathia is available to make his start on short rest, but the man who handily out-dueled him in Game 1 is not.

The Phillies and Charlie Manuel have decided that instead of asking Cliff Lee to start on three days rest for the first time in his career, they will ask Joe Blanton to make only his second start since October 2nd. Lee said he was willing to give it a shot, but Manuel passed. Going to Blanton also means that Cliff Lee won't be able to start a potential Game 7 either. In fact, it's tough to find any level on which this decision makes any sense.

As Will from IIATMS points out, they Yankees match-up quite favorably with Blanton's pitch repertoire. The righty has a marginal fastball that sits in the high-eighties or low-nineties, and the Yankees are an excellent fastball-hitting team.

Blanton was slightly above league average in the regular season this year, which is valuable, but doesn't make him a particularly strong option to start a postseason game. He showed this in the NLCS against the Dodgers, when gave up 4 runs (3 ER) and walked as many as he struck out in 6 innings. The Phillies ended up winning that game, but needed a two run double by Jimmy Rollins with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning to do it. And in that Game, they were facing Randy Wolf, not CC Sabathia.

CC's start in Game 1 of the World Series didn't look very impressive. He walked as many batters (3) and gave up more home runs (2) than he did in his previous three postseason starts combined. But the end result his performance wasn't nearly as bad as those tidbits would seem to indicate.

I think most fans would cheerfully sign up for 7 innings of two run ball from Sabathia tonight given who he is opposing, but I think the Big Fella is aiming a little bit higher. Regardless, the fact that he is capable of pitching on short rest - which is easy to take for granted at this point - means that the Yankees don't have to support Chad Gaudin against a lefty heavy line up in a park known for its tendency to give up the long ball. The value of that is difficult to understate.

Cliff Lee has never pitched on short rest in his career, which surely played in Charlie Manuel's decision to go with Joe Blanton tonight. But unless Manuel has a specific reason to think that Lee isn't able to pitch effectively four days after his last start, and he's pretty damn sure of it, this seems like a mistake.

Just as we learned in Game 2, not all bad decisions are doomed to fail. Should the Phillies steal this one from the Yanks whether it be by a solid start from Joe Blanton, a poor one by CC Sabathia or a failure by the Yankees bullpen, the advantage will shift right back to Philly with the series tied a fully-rested Cliff Lee waiting for the Yanks in Game 5. As is always true in baseball, it only takes a couple of pitches, bounces or swings of the bat to change the complexion of the game.

As a team works it way through the playoffs, each game almost always becomes more important than the last. The Yanks took advantage of a favorable pitching match-up in Game 3 but that will soon be forgotten if they fail to capitalize in Game 4. But Manuel and the Phillies have given the Yankees the opportunity to get their third win in this Series which is precisely the break they were looking for.

Time to take advantage. Go Yanks.

And that's the break I was looking for.
And you could hear me screaming a mile away
As I was headed out towards the door.

Won't you give me three steps,
Gimme three steps mister,
Gimme three steps towards the door?
Gimme three steps,
Gimme three steps mister,
And you'll never see me no more.

World Series Game 2: Idiot Wind

Here's a new one guys, Joe Girardi is driving us insane before the game even starts!

When Francisco Cervelli was dropped from the World Series roster, I said that we could "almost certainly infer" that Jorge Posada would be catching A.J. Burnett in Game 2. Earlier today I threw out the option of benching Nick Swisher and starting Brett Gardner in center field but said that I was "certain Joe Girardi won't do it".

Well friends, Joe Girardi certainly did remove Nick Swisher from the line up, but in favor of Jerry Hairston, Jr., not Gardner. Why, you might ask? Because Hairston totally crushes Pedro! In 31 career plate appearances, he has a line of .370/.433/.519. Pretty awesome, right?

/touches earpiece

What's that? Ah, I've just been told that the last time Hairston faced him was in two thousand fucking four when Pedro was a completely different pitcher. Since then, Hairston made over 1606 plate appearances for four different teams. But don't worry, those 31 PAs are totally relevant.

Hairston's a pretty good defender, but he's not about to take over center field and allow Melky Cabrera to play right, thereby shoring up two positions like a certain gritty, guttier option would have. (By the way, Hairston has only started one game in RF all year). He's not going to steal bases like Gardner theoretically could either. He's also 10 for his last 65, for what it's worth.

I was semi-in-favor-of benching Swish this morning so I guess I can't complain too much. But to do it in favor Hairston doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Even Eric Hinske, who figures to get some ABs in Philly and might benefit from a tune up would be a better choice. The Molina decision, on the other hand, doesn't make any fucking sense at all.

One might have thought that after the first inning of Game 5 in Anaheim, the sacred union of Burnett and Molina would have been all but dissolved. After all, Burnett gave up 4 runs in the first frame without recording an out and with Molina catching him. After Posada pinch hit for Molina, he and Burnett worked well enough to record two scoreless innings. A.J. gave up two baserunners in the seventh inning who eventually came around to score, but some of that falls on the relievers. Or at the very least, you could conclude that the catcher isn't the problem, it's Burnett. And then simply insert the better offensive option behind the plate.

Now everyone enters the game with a prepackaged scapegoat. If Burnett fares poorly, Girardi should have had Posada behind the plate. If the offense is dead and Jerry Hairston goes 0-4 with 3 Ks, Joe should have left Swisher in. He's inadvertently putting more pressure on his players because they now have to come up big to validate his inexplicable gutsy decisions. Ask Joe Torre how moving A-Rod down to 8th in the order worked out for him.

Oh yeah, Pedro is starting for the Phillies, but we already went over that.

As Jorge Posada said before Game 2 of the ALDS "we'd better win". Because if the Yankees don't, the blame is going to be aimed squarely at Joe Girardi. No pressure, Yanks.

People see me all the time and they just can't remember how to act,
Their minds are filled with big ideas, images and distorted facts.
Even you, yesterday you had to ask me where it was at,
I couldn't believe after all these years, you didn't know me better than that.

Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your mouth,
Blowing down the backroads headin' south.
Idiot wind, blowing every time you move your teeth,
You're an idiot, babe.
It's a wonder that you still know how to breathe.

A Fine Fall Day

("Not going to school on Wednesday, going to the World Series")

Good morning, Fackers. It's a fine one to be a supporter of the New York Baseballing Yankees, wouldn't you say? According to the folks over a LoHud, the Yanks didn't hold much back last night. It's alright, they've got almost three full days to shake it off.

Fittingly, a sloppily contested game replete with dubious managerial moves topped off a series that might be remembered for both of those things. The only thing missing was an egregiously wrong call by an umpire. The "fundamentally sound" Angels had Vlad Guerrero picked off of first base on what should have been a routine play in the 3rd and made two errors on plays when the Yankees were handing them outs in the 8th inning.

As for the managing, the questionable decision making began in the 4th inning. Following singles by Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano, the Yanks asked Melky Cabrera to sacrifice them over to second and third. I know what Girardi was thinking. Pass the baton to Jeter and hope he singles home a few runs. But Saunders was on the ropes and looked nothing short of terrible. Timely hitting was the only thing between the Yankees and a sizable lead at that point. I can see that move in the later innings or against a dominant pitcher, maybe, but to do it in the 4th inning against a guy in Saunders who had been pitching terribly to that point doesn't make sense.

If you look at this run expectancy matrix, you'll see that a successful bunt in this spot would have even decreased the Yankees chances to score exactly one run, increased their odds of plating two or three but decreased their odds of having a bigger inning. The way Saunders was pitching, I wouldn't discount the possibility of the latter.

So despite Girardi's best efforts to avoid delivering the knockout blow, the Yankees still loaded the bases for Johnny Damon who drove two home, and re-loaded them via a single from Teixeira for A-Rod. Mike Sciosica left (southpaw) Joe Saunders in to face A-Rod with the bases loaded in the 4th inning. At the time, Saunders had faced 21 batters and allowed 11 to reach base (with one of the 10 retired coming on a sac bunt). That's who you want facing the other team's best hitter with the bases loaded in an elimination game? Saunders of course walked A-Rod on an incredibly close pitch, forcing in a run.

I disagreed with the way Joe Girardi's chose to pull his starter as well. After getting Howie Kendrick to line out, Pettitte gave up a single to Juan Rivera on a pitch that was high but over the middle of the plate. At that point, Pettitte had thrown only 99 pitches and induced 9 ground balls. He was one pitch away from getting out of the inning but Girardi went to his bullpen for David Robertson. Oh wait, no he didn't. Phil Hughes. Err, no. He went to Joba Chamberlain for some reason known only to him. Ostensibly because he believes that it's still 2007.

Girardi had apparently already made up his mind that he was going to use Mariano Rivera for 6 outs, so why did he pick Joba over Hughes? Or Robertson? We were told this week that there was nothing wrong with Hughes and that it was a simple mechanical issue. Robertson was solid during the regular season and perfect in the postseason. Joba has been neither of those things. He's given up 5 hits in 2 2/3 postseason IP and was not effective when last seen as a starter. What makes Girardi think that he's the guy you want in when the game is on the line?

Of course, Girardi also tried desperately to give away outs in the 9th inning when the Yankees were leading by 1, not once but twice, however the Angels simply wouldn't let him.

But hey, all's well that ends well, right?

I personally had a pretty sweet day as well. I played in a golf tourament at a Donald Ross track called The Sagamore in Lake George, my team won by 4 shots, I took home longest drive and won the 50/50 raffle (and didn't donate it, sorry Bolton Booster Club!). I got home a little bit after first pitch and Big Willie Style had taken the liberty of setting his TV up on a table beneath the 46" so we could watch the Yankees and Giants at the same time. It came at the expense of the internet and therefore active Twittering, but it was a necessary trade off.

Only the top TV had the audio on, so we flipped to the Giants game on when there was action and the Yankees were at commercial (Black taco! Apparently blue corn tortillas are black now. Who knew?). At one point, within about 20 seconds of each other, Hakeem Nicks lucked into a touchdown catch on a crazy deflection for the Giants and Johnny Damon rapped an 2 RBI single for the Yanks. It was worth the trouble just for that.

The Giants were mounting a possible game-tying drive that got derailed when Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled struggling for some extra yards. You can't win 'em all, and that was pretty much the only loss I took yesterday.

Don't Kill The Manager

Morning Fackers. Last night sucked. There's no way around it. But what sucks even more is that we are going to have to listen to people second guess every managerial move made last night for two days before Game 6.

I'm not going to name names, but there were a lot of people on Twitter last night who couldn't possibly understand why Mike Scioscia took John Lackey out with 104 pitches with the bases loaded in the top of the 7th (you know, after the Yanks scored all their runs). Interestingly, they were also conveniently outraged that Joe Girardi let A.J. Burnett come out for the 7th inning with 80 pitches (but only after Burnett allowed two men to reach base, of course). And what was pretty much the only thing that those two moves had in common? Neither worked out.

I'm sure they weren't just on Twitter. These Monday morning quarterbacks were probably in the bars and living rooms where you guys were watching the game as well. These people know who they are. Actually, they probably don't because they only deal in hindsight and therefore always agree with the decisions that work out and can't possibly believe what the manager was thinking when one goes wrong.

First, the Lackey move. Don't forget that two batters before he was pulled, Lackey showed up home plate umpire Fieldin Culbreth by waving his arms and yelling at him after a called ball four. He then walked Derek Jeter on 4 pitches and left a ball fat and over the plate that Johnny Damon luckily didn't do much with. Lackey had lost his composure and lost his strike zone and I doubt Culbreth was dying to give him any close pitches. While it was a debatable decision, I can see why Scioscia went to his bullpen. Whether it should have been Darren Oliver is another issue.

As for Burnett, he had given up all four of his runs in the first inning before he even recorded an out. Therefore, he had just pitched 6 consecutive scoreless innings leading up to that point and needed only 68 pitches to do so. What would you have thought about leaving him in if he hadn't allowed those runs in the first? Because what happened in that inning was not nearly as relevant as how he had been throwing the ball since then.

Sure, Girardi could have gone to the bullpen, but the people who are smugly second guessing that decision are the same ones who have been crying about "overmanaging" throughout this postseason mostly because it's become the in vogue thing to say.

Perhaps Girardi could have pulled Burnett after the lead-off single to Mathis. But the only right handed reliever who was ready at that point was Joba, and I think we can agree that he didn't have his best stuff last night. Perhaps he should have had Hughes warming up, but the same thing applies to him. So Burnett gave up the single to Mathis. Is it Girardi's fault that the Angels' back up cather has decided to turn into Josh Gibson during this series? He's literally a career .200 hitter - on the nose.

Does anyone remember how the Yankees got the two outs in that inning? It was Damaso Marte, who Girardi chose over Phil Coke to face Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu, but I don't hear anyone acknowledging the fact that decision worked out well for him.

The reality is that no matter how the Yankees blew the lead - if Girardi had brought in Joba, Hughes, Robertson, Coke, Aceves, Marte or Rivera in any order - he would be taking shit for it this morning. For instance, if he brought in Hughes and he coughed up the lead, people would be exasperated that Girardi had pulled Burnett after only 80 pitches. Ergo, at a certain point, the blame goes to the players.

Although the offense scored 6 runs, they were useless for 8 innings. The black hole in the bottom of the line-up known as "Nick Swisher" made the Yankees 32.3% less likely to win this game with his offensive contributions (or lack thereof). Johnny Damon wasn't helping either (-11.9%).

Phil Hughes needed to get one out in the 7th inning and the Yankees would have held onto the lead. One out and no one would have been talking about Girardi's bullpen management this morning.

Instead, Hughes issued a pass to Torii Hunter that I'm sure anyone reading this blog could have worked since none of the four balls even sniffed the strike zone. Next, he had Vlad Guerrero right where he wanted him - in a 1-2 count after an ugly swing and miss. Jorge Posada called for a pitch up in the zone, momentarily standing up from his crouch to indicate it, but Hughes served a belt-high meatball along with some spaghetti, Bolognese sauce, grated Pecorino Romano and some delicious garlic bread. He's lucky Vlad is half the man he used to be or else that would have probably been a grand slam instead of a bobbling single up the middle.

The least defensible move that Girardi made, which hardly anyone is talking about because it didn't end up mattering, was the decision to pinch run for A-Rod in the 9th inning. The game almost equally likely to be tied up at that point with A-Rod or Guzman running the bases, as Dave Cameron from FanGraphs demonstrated. Cameron estimates that the marginal gain of putting in Guzman is something like 1%. Girardi traded that in for having his best hitter (and a solid defender) on the bench in extra innings should the Yankees have tied the game. Imagine the uproar if A-Rod's line up slot had come up again.

I understand that Girardi has made his bed by executing a ton of agressive moves this postseason, most of which have worked out but some of which have not. He's exerted too much control over the games too many times, so now people are all too willing to critique every move he makes. He's made the game too much about himself as opposed to the players which is why people are so open with their complaints. But save your breath. As Cameron said in the linked post above, we're tilting at windmills. You can assign blame 'til you're blue in the face, but it's not going to put the Yankees in the World Series. They're going to have to do that themselves sometime this weekend.

Factual Inaccuracy Of The Day

At the risk of BaDH, here's one loose end from last night's infamous bunt that I didn't tie up earlier. From the Post (emphasis mine):

"We're trying to get the tying run to third base," Girardi said. "Nick's been a good bunter for us all year and unfortunately he popped it up tonight."

Really, Joe? Has he? Because he's hardly been a bunter at all during the rest of his career.

Including last night's botched attempt, Swisher has been asked to sacrifice bunt 4 times 471 plate appearances this year. In the other 2512 PAs in his career, he has completed 4 successfully. For some odd reason Joe Girardi has asked Swish to bunt at over 5 times the frequency of his previous managers. Perhaps his Ken Macha, Bob Geren and Ozzie Guillen were a little more realistic about his ability to get one down.

The only players who have been asked to bunt as much or more than Swisher this season are Francisco Cervelli, Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner, all of who have an OPS of roughly 100 points lower or more than Swish.

Using his averages from this year (which are very close to his career norms), there was a roughly 20-25% chance he could have won or tied the game with a hit and a 37% chance he could have at least moved the runner to third without using an out. Sure, there was a strong chance he left the Yanks in the same situation they found themselves in after he popped it up to Michael Young, but at least there was some upside to letting him swing. He might have advanced the runners anyway. If Jose Molina or Frankie Cervelli or Brett Gardner was up, it would have been a close decision. But not with a guy with 21 HRs and a .368 OBP is at the plate.

Joe Girardi just wanted to exert his influence and try to alter the outcome of the game like he so often does without a very good reason. Unfortunately for the team and it's fans, it backfired once again.

Beggars Can't Be Choosers

The Yankees would have taken a win anyway they could have got it last night and the Baseball Gods responded with a protracted, sloppy, lopsided affair that spanned nearly four hours, included 26 hits, 18 walks and 23 runners left on base.

It didn't appear to bode well for the Yanks when Jorge Posada trotted into home standing straight up in the 2nd inning and walked right into a chest high relay throw from Dustin Pedroia to Victor Martinez. At that point it seemed possible that Posada's baserunning gaffe would come back to haunt them later in the game. That notion vanished fairly quickly when Yanks sent 13 runners to the plate in the bottom of the fourth and scored 8 of them.

Joba Chamberlain, although he got the win, was not sharp at all, throwing 108 pitches in five innings, walking 7 and giving up two home runs. He continually failed to put away hitters but still managed to earn his 8th win of the season and 4th in a row.

Despite the fact that the Yanks were leading by eight runs when they made their first call to the bullpen, Joe Girardi still managed to use four more pitchers. (The Red Sox used only 3 to absorb 45 plate appearances). Girardi also pinch hit and pinch ran comfortably ahead and made defensive switches with a 9 run lead in the 9th inning. Anthony Claggett came on for the final three outs, but apparently couldn't have been trusted with a 7 run lead in the 8th inning or a 6 run cushion in the 7th.

I'm not sure if Mark Melancon purposely threw at Dustin Pedoia with a 13-4 advantage in the eighth, but this is just a fantastic photograph, you know, on an artistic level. (via AP/Yahoo)

It must have been a horrible baseball game to watch if you weren't a fan of the Yankees. Sorry about that. We take what we can get.

You're Not Going To Believe This, But...

Last night Rob Neyer wrote a blog post that didn't involve a 200+ word blockquote. I swear to the Baseball Gods:

Last year, Kyle Farnsworth gave up 15 home runs in 60 innings. In his career, Farnsworth has allowed a .441 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters.

Jim Thome is a left-handed hitter with 541 career home runs.

Over the past three seasons, Chicago's U.S. Cellular Field has been the most homer-prone ballpark in the American League, both generally and for left-handed hitters specifically.

With two outs in the bottom of the eighth inning and two White Sox on base, the Royals held a 2-1 lead. Thome was coming up. If there's a single pitcher in the majors who shouldn't be facing Thome in that situation, it just might be Farnsworth.

Yet, face him he did. Threw Thome a fastball down the middle, he did. Gave up a long, three-run, (eventually) game-losing home run, he also did.

And Royals manager Trey Hillman? He sat on his hands and watched it happen. That's what he did.

There's no blockquote at all!!! I got so excited, I think just cut and pasted his whole post...

I kid because I like Rob Neyer and sincerely hope that we see much more of this from him during this season. I would love for ESPN to set him up with MLB Extra Innings a couple of nights a week and just let him make observations like the one above.

It seems as though he has a very defined idea of what blogging is (short lead-in, long blockquote, then his reaction to the piece), and rarely (up until now, never?) steps outside of that format aside from his Monday Mendozas, Tuesday Taters, Wednesday Wangdoodles and so forth. I'd love to hear more of his original thoughts, not just his reactions to what other people say.