Rays Sweep Sawx, Ruin Patriots' Day

[Screengrab via Schiff, courtesy of 30fps]

It wasn't an especially enjoyable Patriots' Day for the Fenway Faithful, as the Sawx were already losing 6-0 by the time high noon rolled around. John Lackey got pounded, allowing 8 runs in 3 1/3 innings, the biggest blow coming in the form of a 3 run homer to B.J. Upton that Bill Hall ran into the wall, ribs first, trying to catch. Jeremy Hermida broke up Jeff Neimann's shutout with a two run shot in the 7th inning, but it was too little, too late.

The Rays won 8-2, extended their winning streak to 7 and their TV crew captured a most exquisite visual representation of Soxenfreude in the process.

Game 3 Recap

[WPA data via Fangraphs]

1. Dustin Pedroia led off the bottom of the third with a double to left. After retiring Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis, Andy Pettitte surrendered David Ortiz' first hit of 2010. His base hit to right plated Pedroia to give the Sox a 1-0 lead.

2. Scott Schoeneweis relieved John Lackey to start the seventh. Jorge Posada laced a one out double to center. Schoeneweis fanned Curtis Granderson for the third time in four career meetings between the two. Schoeneweis gave way to flame throwing Daniel Bard, but Nick Swisher was undeterred. He fouled off three straight fastballs, registering at 97, 97, and 99 MPH according to GameDay. On the fourth pitch of the at bat, Swisher pulled a single through the right side. J.D. Drew's throw was in time to get Posada, but Martinez could not handle it cleanly. After a less than graceful stumble past the plate, Jorgie went back to tag the dish and tie the score.

3. Leading off the top of the tenth, Granderson jumped on an 0-1 Jonathan Papelbon fastball and deposited it in the right field stands for his second home run as a Yankee.

4. Following consecutive walks to Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira hit a slow bouncer to short, allowing Gardner to score an insurance run on the fielder's choice.

IFs, ANDs & BUTs

• After marathon sessions in the series' first two games, tonight's game, despite being an extra inning affair, was the shortest of the series at 3:21


• Much of that had to with this being the lowest scoring game of the series, which in turn had to do with both Andy Pettitte and John Lackey, despite not factoring in the decision, turning in strong performances.


• The Yankees got a scare on the opening play of the bottom of the first, as a collision at first base between Pettitte and Jacoby Ellsbury knocked Pettitte to the ground, skinning his elbow and banging his head against the turf. He recovered, and eventually settled down, to scatter nine base runners and allow just one run over six frames


• Pettitte beaned Youk with a 90 MPH pitch in the bottom of the fifth. Derek Jeter took a 2-2 cutter in the elbow leading off the sixth. Neither was intentional, and the two plunkees and WBC teammates shared a laugh at first as Jeter took his base.


• Despite the strong performances from the starters, the pitching star of the game was the recently maligned Chan Ho Park. Park allowed just one hit on only 36 pitches over three scoreless innings. I was afraid that running him out for the ninth was pushing the envelope a bit, but Park delivered. He made five relief appearances of three innings in 2009.


• Despite his RBI, Mark Teixeira is now 0 for 12 on 2010. Nick Johnson is now 0 for 9. No word yet as to whether the media has questioned either about their horrendously slow starts.


• Derek Jeter grounded out to short twice; he did the same in both of the series' first two games and added a seeing eye single by the shortstop in game one.


• Randy Winn once again replaced Nick Swisher for defense, taking over in the bottom of the tenth. It annoyed me when this would happen last year as I felt Swisher was defensively superior to Johnny Damon. With Brett Gardner in left this year though, subbing for Swisher appears to be a prudent move, as Winn grades out extremely well as a right fielder.

Game 3: On To The Next One

Appropriately, the winner of the first series between the Yankees and Red Sox this season will be determined by who takes its third and final game. Each team has scored 13 runs so far (with the starting pitchers accounting for 9 of those and the bullpen the other 4), racked up 21 hits (6 going for doubles) and stolen two bases. The Yanks have hit three homers while the Sox have two and a triple. That's about as evenly matched as it gets.

The two teams won't meet again for another month so the victor of tonight's contest will get to hang on to the bragging rights for a pretty substantial amount of time.

The victim of several rainouts during Spring Training, Andy Pettitte won't have any weather-related issues in Fenway tonight. It was over 90 degrees in Boston today and although it will cool down by the time the first pitch is thrown, it will still be unseasonably warm. Pettitte's first appearance of the season

will be

his 35th start as a part of this unique rivalry and when asked about it earlier today had a hard time pretending he was especially excited for it.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, John Lackey will be taking part in the mania that is Yanks vs. Red Sox for the first time. Having pitched half of his games in southern California, the balmy conditions this evening should make Lackey feel right at home. Although he'll be getting eased into the rivalry as far at the weather is concerned, the 6'6" right hander is making his Sox debut against the Yankees and their best line up in front of a Fenway crowd with big expectations for their new highest paid player.

Lackey has faced the Yankees 7 times in the past 5 years between the regular season and the playoffs and has a 3.42 ERA with 40 strikeouts and 17 walks in those games.

For the first time in two years, Lackey will not begin the season on the DL. Despite the delayed debuts in '08 and '09, Lackey was still a valuable starter in those seasons, pitching a total of 340 innings with a 3.79 ERA. Lackey can probably expect his rate stats to take a hit as he settles into the AL East, but the biggest barrier to his success has always been his health and it appears he's off to a good start in that department.

So as Lackey dons a new uniform for the first time and turns the page to a new chapter in his career, the Yanks look to steal the final game of the set before moving on to face the Rays in Tampa. Let's do it.

-Lineups-

Yankees:

Brett Gardner makes his triumphant return to left field, after coming off the bench to go 1 for 2 last night. Curtis Granderson slides back down to 7th and everyone else is in their usual spots.

Jeter SS
Johnson DH
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Posada C
Granderson CF
Swisher RF
Gardner LF

Red Sox:

Ellsbury LF
Pedroia 2B
Martinez C
Youkilis 1B
Ortiz DH
Beltre 3B
Drew RF
Cameron CF
Scutaro SS

AL East Q&A: Patrick Sullivan

Now we have reached the point in our interview series where we must take a long, hard look at our most hated rivals. While the Yanks went the trade route this offseason, the Red Sox signed four free agents - three starting position players and a starting pitcher -and changed the look of their team significantly.

Here to represent the enemy and make sense of their offseason is Patrick Sullivan from the most excellent Baseball Analysts. Patrick has been writing for BA since 2007 and he was contributing to The House That Dewey Built before Aaron Boone stepped in against Tim Wakefield. He's an OG in this blogging game, so despite the fact that he's a dirty rotten Sawx fan who once went by the moniker "Sully", he deserves our respect. Let's get to it:

Fack Youk: How do you think Lackey, Lester, Beckett, Wakefield/Dice-K and Bucholz stack up against the Yankee quintet of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Vazquez and Hughes?

Patrick Sullivan: It's a great question. I think I would take Boston's for two reasons. The first is that, Wakefield notwithstanding, they're a bit younger. The other reason is that Clay Buchholz has experienced some Big League starting pitching success, something Hughes cannot yet claim. But really, you could throw both teams' top 6 into a hat and assign 3 each randomly to one team and you would still have to squint to determine whose trio was better. I will also say this. I DO put just the tiniest bit of stock into some of the make-up concerns regarding Vazquez. Those things typically aren't my bag, but I think pitching a quarter of his games against Tampa and Boston could take its toll on him. And by "take its toll" I mean he might merely be very good as opposed to a Cy Young candidate.

FY: Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre were the two biggest offensive acquisitions of the offseason but they are best known for their defense (although Cameron's strikeout totals and Beltre's testicle are both pretty legendary). With Jacoby Ellsbury shifting to left and Marco Scutaro manning short, how significant do you expect their improvement in the field will be?

PS: I will leave the quantification of the improvements to others but it's not hard to conclude that the Red Sox made some very significant improvements defensively. Last year the Red Sox had a bad center fielder, bad shortstops, and two of the very worst left fielders and third basemen respectively. This season, they might have gold glove candidates at all four positions. What does that mean in terms of runs saved? Not sure, maybe somewhere on the order of 4-6 wins though?

FY: Judging by some of the reaction in the media, it appears that the Sox placed an increased emphasis on defense at the expense of their offense this offseason. Do you think their decision to allow their opponents to hit during one of their halves of an inning was a wise one?

PS: There are real and interesting concerns for mainstream writers to sink their teeth into regarding Boston's offense. You have Youkilis, Pedroia, Beltre, Scutaro and Cameron who all hit right handed. Victor Martinez is not as good from the left side. Jacoby Ellsbury has no split at all. David Ortiz is a shell of himself. It's only J.D. Drew that poses a bigtime threat to righties for the Red Sox and in a division with Garza, Shields, Niemann, Vazquez, Burnett, Hughes, Tillman, Marcum, etc, that could be a real problem.

What the media will do, however, is make vague references to the Red Sox "struggling" on offense this season. They won't quantify it and they won't talk about it relative to the rest of the league, but instead just float concerns. The narrative goes "oh noes, they lost Jason Bay." What nobody wants to acknowledge is how bad their shortstops were last year and that Scutaro will improve them there, and that a full year from VMart and a little Papi bounce back should just about cover the whole Bay-to-Cameron "downgrade". Hey, I guess you need something to write about.

But let's be clear. This is an excellent offense. Victor Martinez is the 2nd best hitting catcher in the AL. Youkilis was the AL's best offensive first baseman last season and Drew was the best right fielder. Pedroia and Scutaro were top-3. Ellsbury's .354 wOBA would have placed him 5th among left fielders in 2009. So what we're really talking about are Beltre, Cameron and Ortiz. And that's fine. But man it must suck to be a Pirates or Royals or Padres fan and hear Red Sox fans and the Boston media bitch because their three worst hitters are Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and David Ortiz.

FY: Scutaro is 34 years old and has relatively little in the way of experience at shortstop or full seasons worth of plate appearances under his belt. Have the Sox finally found some stability in that position or is he just another flawed stopgap/placeholder for Jose Iglesias? Any hope left for Jed Lowrie?

PS: I don't know. I like the deal because the Red Sox have money, they need to field a shortstop, and Marco was the best out there. In some ways I think Scutaro's lack of experience may work to his advantage given the lack of wear and tear. Looking at it another way, in his only two seasons as a full-timer, 2008 and 2009, he averaged out as a 3.6 win player.

The Red Sox love his defense and think he can hit at an above average level for a SS. And if he doesn't, Lowrie's there. And if he does but Iglesias is pushing him, Scutaro's ability to play second and third make him a terrific super-utility guy in towards the end of that contract.

FY: David Ortiz got off to an incredibly slow start last year, hitting just.185/.286/.283 with one home run through his first 45 games. However, to our dismay, the reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated and he accumulated a line of .264/.354/.546 with 27 dingers in his final 105. What should we expect from Papi this year?

PS: I have no idea at all but if I had to take a stab I would peel 30 or 40 points off of his slug over the last 105 games and leave his average and on-base about the same. He'll be about an average designated hitter, I think.

FY: Last year the infamous Mr. Youkilis finished with a higher wOBA than Mark Teixeira (.413 to .402) and despite hitting the DL in May, was worth about a half of a win more than the Yanks' first baseman according to FanGraphs. HOW CAN YOU EXPLAIN THIS OBVIOUS MISCALCULATION/INJUSTICE/TRAVESTY? What are the chances that Youk is more valuable than Teix again this season?

PS: I don't think Kevin Youkilis is better than Mark Teixeira, even though he had a better season in 2009. I'm pretty sure Tex won the World Series, though. One thing I will say is that Youkilis is absurdly overlooked. He's a top-10 hitter and an excellent, versatile fielder and yet I wonder how many out there would consider him among baseball's best players. The Boston media and some fans are in hysterics over the loss of Jason Bay asking who in the lineup is a top-tier hitter. Meanwhile, YOUKILIS IS A BETTER HITTER THAN BAY. It's nuts.

FY: Thoughts on the supposedly impending Beckett extension? Better value than Lackey? Than Burnett?

PS: At the numbers being floated, I would like it. But I have written about this at Baseball Analysts quite a bit this off-season. You need to look at each player on a case by case basis, but the pitcher who excels well into his mid-30's is rare. Carrying two of them - Lackey and Beckett - and having them account for a quarter of the payroll or so annually is a significant risk as I see it. What a possible Beckett deal says to me is that the Red Sox think they'll be getting serious contributions from another wave of cheap youngsters soon. And seriously, Casey Kelly is stupidly awesome so I guess I can't blame them on that front.

As for the latter portion of the question, I think Beckett is better than Lackey, who's better than Burnett. There, I said it.

FY: Will Mike Lowell make it through the season as a Red Sock (I refuse to use Sox as a singular)?

PS: Nah.

FY: Lastly, how will the AL East shakeout when it's all said and done?

PS: No clue at all, but how about, Yanks, Sox (Wild Card), Rays, O's, Jays?

Like most, I think New York, Boston and Tampa, in some order, are the AL's three best teams and maybe the best 3 in all of baseball. I just think the Yankees' offense is superior to Boston's by a greater margin than Boston's pitching and defense are to New York's. So they win by a couple games. The Rays scare the ever living hell out of me.

FY: Sounds about right to me. Thanks for your insight, Patrick.

Lackey And Vazquez

Even before John Lackey signed with the Red Sox for a deal nearly identical to the 5 year, $82.5M one that the Yankees gave A.J. Burnett a year prior, many saw the two as being very similar. Both pitchers are right handed, oft-injured about six and a half feet tall and around 30 years old with intimidating on-the-mound demeanors. Today, however, I wanted to compare Lackey to Javer Vazquez given their parallel entrance to the Yankees vs. Red Sox rivalry and their disparate reputations in regards to handling pressure.

Lackey has been in the league since 2002 and has averaged 188 innings per season since then. Over that same time period, Vazquez has averaged 215. Lackey's ERA is about a quarter of a run lower over stretch, but that's essentially erased by having to fill in those extra 27 innings a year with a replacement level pitcher.

In general, when John Lackey is healthy, he's a better pitcher than Javy Vazquez. But he's also the Red Sox highest paid player ($18M this year) and is expected to contribute to the top of their rotation. The Yankees are paying Vazquez only about 2/3 as much and hoping that he slots in as their number four.

But what about their reputations under pressure? The idea for that comparison between the two comes from fellow LoHud pinch hitter and editor at the Harvard Crimson, Yair Rosenberg. On Sunday, Yair dropped me an email with the following suggestion/request:

I think the more productive comparison for AL East purposes would not be to Pettitte or Glavine, but to Lackey, whose reputation is that of a big game pitcher, and who is essentially the corresponding addition to this year's Red Sox as Vasquez is to the Yankees. It would be really interesting to see if the stats bear out Lackey's clutch rep - and might go a long way towards predicting the key factors in the coming Yankees-Red Sox race. I'd love to see a post on that.

So here we go. Fighting in the red corner, we have John "Big Game" Lackey, the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the 2002 World Series and supposed consummate clutch performer as anointed by his former manager. In the blue corner is Javier "Can't Handle New York" Vazquez, the man responsible for one of the more infamous home runs in Yankee history, who was called out publicly by Ozzie Guillen for not stepping up when it counts.

There is no question as to who has the better postseason resume. Lackey was thrust into the spotlight at an early age, his team reaching the playoffs in his first season in the majors and asking him to start Game 7 of the World Series only four days after his 24th birthday. Since then, he's been back to the postseason 5 times and pitched a total of 78 innings to a 3.12 ERA.

Vazquez, on the other hand, was trapped on bad Expos teams (no offense, Jonah) for the first six years of his career, and didn't pitch during October until 2004. His performance in the postseason has been pretty dreadful (10.34 ERA), but he's only had a chance to throw 15 2/3 innings in the playoffs.

Do these reputations carry over into the regular season? Do their postseason resumes line up with how they handle pressure during games throughout the year? We know the answer to that question when it comes to Vazquez, as we have assessed his clutch reputation at length here and in other places.

That first and more in-depth inquiry into Vazquez's purported lack of clutchiferousness began with his FIP/ERA differential. Coincidentally, Lackey and Vazquez have identical 3.83 career FIPs. However, Lackey's career ERA is 3.81 while Vazquez's is 4.19. Leaving aside team defense - which would be very difficult to quantify over multiple years and teams - it's helpful to look at situational and leverage statistics when trying to explain FIP/ERA differentials.

There are some notable similarities between the Vazquez and Lackey in the chart to the right. Both pitch better with the bases empty than with runners on. They have similar tOPS+ distributions when the score of the game is within 4 runs.

Naturally, the biggest differences come in the smallest sample sizes. Lackey has done much better with the bases loaded than Vazquez and far worse when the game is out of hand.

Both Lackey's distributions are optimal and both are significant. If you could choose a situation to pitch your best in, it would be when the bases were loaded. If you had to give up runs, you would prefer to allow them when the margin of the game was greater than four runs. But there is a limit to how much these numbers can tell us. Lackey has only 141 plate appearances with the bases loaded while Vazquez has 163.

The sample sizes are larger for when the margin is greater than four (394 for Lackey, 811 for Vazquez) but those at bats are by definition less important. Lackey is obviously better in those situations, but not likely by as much as the numbers indicate.

What about the leverage index, though? While Lackey's numbers don't tell a coherent, progressive story like Vazquez's do, it's still clear that he pitches his worst in high leverage situations. Again, high leverage is based on the smallest sample size among the three levels, but each pitcher has over 1000 plate appearances to draw upon. So perhaps Lackey can't simply summon his best performances when the stakes increase.

If there was something about Lackey's internal constitution that gave him to ability to elevate his performance under pressure, wouldn't it show up in the leverage index? Shouldn't he be able to sense when the game is on the line and reach back for a little extra?

This contradiction begins to chip away not at Lackey's resume in particular but at the manufactured archetype of the "big game pitcher". It's one thing to have had good results in the postseason but it's another entirely to universally improve as the leverage increases. You can argue that the playoff results are more important, but Lackey has only faced 328 batters in postseason play. I think the regular season numbers tell us more.

While it may be convenient to label certain pitchers as big time performers and others as choke artists, they rarely fall neatly into one category or another. More correctly, there are players who have performed well in certain situations and others who have not.

As far as this season goes, it will be interesting to see who is better, Lackey or Vazquez. It's very likely that Lackey will have a lower ERA than Vazquez but based on their respective histories, Vazquez should be the better bet to throw more than 200 innings. However, perhaps this is the year that Vazquez's heroic workload over the past decade-plus catches up with him and it's also the first time in 3 years Lackey makes more than 30 starts.

Time will tell, but remember that the Yankees only need to get 2/3 the performance out of Vazquez to get as much value as the Sox do out of Lackey.

Red Sox Looking To Improve Depth At Unbearable Asshole

According to reports from Ed Price, Ken Rosenthal, Jayson Stark and Buster Onley, the Red Sox have given a physical to and are close to signing a deal with former Angels pitcher and notorious douchebag John Lackey. The deal is assumed to be in the same neighborhood as the one the Yankees extended to A.J. Burnett last offseason - 5 years and over $80M.

"He's just the kind of prick they are looking for, but it doesn't look like the deal will be completed until tomorrow at the earliest" said a league official with knowledge of the negotiations.

The Red Sox have long led the league in such categories as Demonstrative Home Run Celebrations, Verbal Umpire Abuse, Unprovoked Mound Charges and Intra-Team Dugout Scuffles, but their depth at the position of Unbearable Asshole had recently grown thin with the departure of Manny Ramirez.

Of course, the Red Sox still have consummate dickfaces Kevin Youkilis, Josh Beckett, J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek and Dustin Pedroia but the presence of semi-likable Canadian Jason Bay and former Yankee Mike Lowell had made them nearly tolerable to opposing fans and players.

The acquisition of the shit-talking crybaby Lackey, who some are intimating would preclude them from signing Jason Bay would be a major step towards restoring the culture of rampant fuckfacery in the halcyon days of Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, Kevin Millar, Nomar Garciparra, Wil Cordero, Jose Offerman and Ugeth Urbina.

Another source with familiarity of the Red Sox specific brand of thuggery said "It's going to be nearly impossible to find players who will eventually go on to attack people with bats or attempt set them on fire, but their previous acquisition of that wife beater [Julio] Lugo and the emphasis on signing Lackey over [Jason] Bay shows that they are certainly heading in the right direction".

One player who is reportedly upset with the deal is Jonathan Papelbon who rightly believes that it threatens his position as the undisputed biggest fucking asshole on the team.

More on this as it develops.

Arbitration Round Up

Good morning Fackers. The Yankees announced a free agent signing this week, but it's not the big news anyone was waiting on. The club signed Taiwanese teenager Fu-Lin Kuo to a contract. RAB's Mike Axisa has the details.

Meanwhile, the details are in from yesterday's arbitration-palooza. MLBTR has the full rundown of who was offered and who wasn't. For the Yankees' purposes, the only players of concern are Type A free agents who were offered arbitration. Signing any of these players would result in the Yankees forfeiting their first round pick, thirty second overall. Signing more than one, as they did last year, would result in the forfeiture of additional picks.

Here's a list of Type A's who were offered:

• Marco Scutaro
• Chone Figgins
• Jason Bay
• Matt Holliday
• John Lackey
• Mike Gonzalez
• Rafael Soriano
• Jose Valverde
• Billy Wagner
• Rafael Betancourt

Billy Wagner has already reached a deal with the Braves for one year, $7M, with a $6.5M vesting option. This should help set the market for the other relievers on the list.

Per usual, the Yankees have been rumored to have an interest in most players on this list. We've already poked holes in the Chone Figgins rumor. Neither Bay nor Holliday seems to be worth the cost in left field, and few relievers are worth surrendering draft pick compensation. Brian Cashman's comments yesterday seem to indicate they won't be pursuing any such relievers.

Based on that list and those comments, it appears the Yankees might only be willing to sacrifice their first rounder for Lackey, or if they turn to Holliday, Bay, or less likely Figgins to fill their current left field vacancy.

The Weather Gods May Not Be So Kind This Time Around

The Yankees truly lucked out with the weather during Games 1 & 2 of the ALCS. Despite forecasts indicating a 90% chance of precipitation and generally dismal atmospheric conditions in the New York metropolitan area, both games were finished without delay, much less postponement.

This allowed them the option to start CC Sabathia on short rest in Game 4, which in turn allowed him to be available for a possible Game 7 on regular rest. Since the Angels have four capable starting pitchers while the Yankees truly only have 3, the series playing out according to the schedule was a big advantage for the Yanks.

They will have to get lucky once again in order for the rain not to wreak havoc on their plans. The Bombers can help their cause greatly by winning Game 6, whenever it takes place. Should the game tonight be postponed, it would be annoying - especially for the fans and writers - but it could have some actual unfavorable ramifications on the team should there be a do-or-die Game 7.

Having to play a pivotal Game 7 would be awful because the Yanks would need to start CC Sabathia, thus making him unavailable until Game 2 of the World Series (should they be fortunate enough to win that game). It would be especially bad if tonight's game was pushed back until Sunday (partially because the Giants have the 8:30 PM game on NBC), but mostly because the extra day would allow the Angels to start John Lackey on short rest and Sabathia wouldn't be available until Game 3 of the World Series and wouldn't be able to make two starts unless the Series went 6 games.

The Yanks have two more chances to make it to the World Series, but it would greatly behoove them to take care of business as soon as possible. As ridiculously exciting as it would be to witness a Game 7 for the rest of the baseball viewing public, no one with a vested interest in the Yankees wants to endure the stress of watching them play with the season in the balance. Let's hope they can walk between the rain drops once again.

Don't Kill The Manager

Morning Fackers. Last night sucked. There's no way around it. But what sucks even more is that we are going to have to listen to people second guess every managerial move made last night for two days before Game 6.

I'm not going to name names, but there were a lot of people on Twitter last night who couldn't possibly understand why Mike Scioscia took John Lackey out with 104 pitches with the bases loaded in the top of the 7th (you know, after the Yanks scored all their runs). Interestingly, they were also conveniently outraged that Joe Girardi let A.J. Burnett come out for the 7th inning with 80 pitches (but only after Burnett allowed two men to reach base, of course). And what was pretty much the only thing that those two moves had in common? Neither worked out.

I'm sure they weren't just on Twitter. These Monday morning quarterbacks were probably in the bars and living rooms where you guys were watching the game as well. These people know who they are. Actually, they probably don't because they only deal in hindsight and therefore always agree with the decisions that work out and can't possibly believe what the manager was thinking when one goes wrong.

First, the Lackey move. Don't forget that two batters before he was pulled, Lackey showed up home plate umpire Fieldin Culbreth by waving his arms and yelling at him after a called ball four. He then walked Derek Jeter on 4 pitches and left a ball fat and over the plate that Johnny Damon luckily didn't do much with. Lackey had lost his composure and lost his strike zone and I doubt Culbreth was dying to give him any close pitches. While it was a debatable decision, I can see why Scioscia went to his bullpen. Whether it should have been Darren Oliver is another issue.

As for Burnett, he had given up all four of his runs in the first inning before he even recorded an out. Therefore, he had just pitched 6 consecutive scoreless innings leading up to that point and needed only 68 pitches to do so. What would you have thought about leaving him in if he hadn't allowed those runs in the first? Because what happened in that inning was not nearly as relevant as how he had been throwing the ball since then.

Sure, Girardi could have gone to the bullpen, but the people who are smugly second guessing that decision are the same ones who have been crying about "overmanaging" throughout this postseason mostly because it's become the in vogue thing to say.

Perhaps Girardi could have pulled Burnett after the lead-off single to Mathis. But the only right handed reliever who was ready at that point was Joba, and I think we can agree that he didn't have his best stuff last night. Perhaps he should have had Hughes warming up, but the same thing applies to him. So Burnett gave up the single to Mathis. Is it Girardi's fault that the Angels' back up cather has decided to turn into Josh Gibson during this series? He's literally a career .200 hitter - on the nose.

Does anyone remember how the Yankees got the two outs in that inning? It was Damaso Marte, who Girardi chose over Phil Coke to face Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu, but I don't hear anyone acknowledging the fact that decision worked out well for him.

The reality is that no matter how the Yankees blew the lead - if Girardi had brought in Joba, Hughes, Robertson, Coke, Aceves, Marte or Rivera in any order - he would be taking shit for it this morning. For instance, if he brought in Hughes and he coughed up the lead, people would be exasperated that Girardi had pulled Burnett after only 80 pitches. Ergo, at a certain point, the blame goes to the players.

Although the offense scored 6 runs, they were useless for 8 innings. The black hole in the bottom of the line-up known as "Nick Swisher" made the Yankees 32.3% less likely to win this game with his offensive contributions (or lack thereof). Johnny Damon wasn't helping either (-11.9%).

Phil Hughes needed to get one out in the 7th inning and the Yankees would have held onto the lead. One out and no one would have been talking about Girardi's bullpen management this morning.

Instead, Hughes issued a pass to Torii Hunter that I'm sure anyone reading this blog could have worked since none of the four balls even sniffed the strike zone. Next, he had Vlad Guerrero right where he wanted him - in a 1-2 count after an ugly swing and miss. Jorge Posada called for a pitch up in the zone, momentarily standing up from his crouch to indicate it, but Hughes served a belt-high meatball along with some spaghetti, Bolognese sauce, grated Pecorino Romano and some delicious garlic bread. He's lucky Vlad is half the man he used to be or else that would have probably been a grand slam instead of a bobbling single up the middle.

The least defensible move that Girardi made, which hardly anyone is talking about because it didn't end up mattering, was the decision to pinch run for A-Rod in the 9th inning. The game almost equally likely to be tied up at that point with A-Rod or Guzman running the bases, as Dave Cameron from FanGraphs demonstrated. Cameron estimates that the marginal gain of putting in Guzman is something like 1%. Girardi traded that in for having his best hitter (and a solid defender) on the bench in extra innings should the Yankees have tied the game. Imagine the uproar if A-Rod's line up slot had come up again.

I understand that Girardi has made his bed by executing a ton of agressive moves this postseason, most of which have worked out but some of which have not. He's exerted too much control over the games too many times, so now people are all too willing to critique every move he makes. He's made the game too much about himself as opposed to the players which is why people are so open with their complaints. But save your breath. As Cameron said in the linked post above, we're tilting at windmills. You can assign blame 'til you're blue in the face, but it's not going to put the Yankees in the World Series. They're going to have to do that themselves sometime this weekend.

ALCS Game 5: To Live And Die In L.A.

Last night was the 8th night off the Yankees have had this postseason. After tonight they will have played 7 games. In a sport that averages about one day off per week or less during the regular season, it must be pretty annoying for the teams to have to play so sporadically during the postseason.

That one extra night allowed for the possibility of starting CC Sabathia three times in this series, which certainly has helped put the Yankees as close as they are, but the lull between games is something that's not natural for baseball fans and players alike. Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs is dreading the possibility of yet another week without a baseball game and is therefore (as a Mariner's fan) rooting for the Angels. I'm obviously not going to go that far, but I do think that the MLB has gone a little too far by inserting off days not necessary for travel so networks can put as many games as possible in primetime. The league is in the superior bargaining position here and should be willing to preserve the rhythm of the season to some extent over having a couple of games start at 4:00PM Eastern instead of 8:00PM.


Regardless, here the Yankees are, on the doorstep of the Fall Classic. After Game 4, it was strange to hear people say the Yanks were "one win away". It didn't quite seem real yet. However, watching the Phillies clinch last night (and coming to the realization that we made it through the TBS coverage) did drive it hit home a little bit more. The Phils' win last night was a little bit like the Yankees' the night before in that they blew the Dodgers out, but there were some sweaty palms during the 8th inning with the bases loaded, no one out and the Dodgers trailing by 5. When the last out was recorded, the city Philadelphia of course handled it with the grace and class of a team who had made the World Series just last year a crack whore at a black tie function.


Back to the game tonight, though. Of course as we all know far too well, one blowout win doesn't mean anything when the next game rolls around. Especially with the pitching match up we've got tonight.


If rest wasn't a factor and the Angels could pick anyone in their rotation to start tonight's game, it would still be John Lackey. He has a 3.03 postseason ERA in 71 1/3 innings. Although his playoff record is 3-4, he's still known as the type of pitcher that excels in October. If the Angels are to be around in November, he'll have to keep the best line up in baseball in check tonight.


One of Lackey's four losses came against the Yankees in Game 1 of this series. The Bombers' philosophy going into the game was to be patient against the tall righty, which was exemplified by Derek Jeter's at bat to lead off the game - an 8 pitch tussle ending with a single to right field. Lackey allowed 4 runs (2 ER) that night and the 114 pitches he threw weren't even enough to get him out of the sixth inning. Two errors by his teammates surely escalated his pitch count as well, but those weren't what prevented him from having a good outing - that would be the Yankees approach and execution.


Our buddy Joe Pawlikowski at River Ave. Blues took a look at Lackey's postseason resume today, specifically his performances in the two elimination games he's started, and his playoff history against the Yankees. Click over to see how much he has earned his reputation as a "big game pitcher".


A.J. Burnett will oppose Lackey this evening and look to lift the Yankees into their 40th Fall Classic. Burnett has given up only three runs in his two starts this October but hasn't been able to pick up his first postseason win. He did however, get to deliver some whipped cream to the faces of Mark Teixeira and Jerry Hairston, Jr., which I'm sure were fine consolation prizes.


While Burnett hasn't given up many runs (3) or hits (6) in his two previous outings, he's given out 7 free passes, plunked 4 and buried numerous curveballs in the dirt. It's not unexpected, since Burnett led the league in walks, was third in hit batsmen and tied for most wild pitches during the regular season. To his credit, A.J. has held on for dear life and done a good job of limiting the damage when he's gotten into trouble (i.e. the 5th inning of Game 2).


With Burnett comes the requisite baggage of having Jose Molina in the line up. So far, Molina has only got 3 plate appearances and Burnett has pitched well, so there has been no real reason to switch things up. Line ups aren't posted yet, but Hideki Matsui should retain the DH role despite his tough night on Tuesday (0-5, 3Ks), leaving Posada available for direct substitution of Molina later in the game.


The Yankees are going to be coming back to New York one way or another after this game. Whether it will be a celebratory atmosphere or not remains to be seen. We've had our eye on this song ever since the it was official that the Yanks and Angels would be meeting in the ALCS. Thankfully it isn't the Yankees who are fighting for their playoff lives tonight.

It's the City of Angels in constant danger,
South Central L.A., can't get no stranger.

To live and die in L.A., it's the place to be,
You've got to be there to know it, what everybody wanna see.

ALCS Game 1: Who Knows?

Here we are, folks. It's the American League Championship Series; Phase Two of a possible three in the quest for ultimate baseball glory. It's been a long 5 years since the Yanks have been in those position.

There are only 6 Yankees (Jeter, A-Rod, Mo, Posada, Cano, Matsui) that were on the roster in 2004 or the last time the Yankees faced the Angels in 2005. The Angels are returning only 4 players from 2005. So while the narrative that the Angels own the Yanks in the postseason is going to be thrown out there, it's not all that relevant any more. The Red Sox supposedly had the Angels' number going into the ALDS and they are watching this one from their respective couches. (I love pointing that out...)

As Matt delved into this morning, the two teams split the season series and are quite evenly matched. The Yanks have a slight advantage when you look at the accumulation of their regular season stats, but much of that goes out the window at this point. The rosters are optimized for a short series and there's no guarantee that a 52/48 or even 55/45 edge is going to show up in a best of 7 series. The miserable weather in the Bronx to start the series could further obscure any advantages one way or another.

John Lackey gets the start for the Angels tonight, off a dominant outing against the Red Sox in the ALDS. The Angels' Ace shut down the Sox over 7 1/3 IP, holding them to 4 hits, one walk and no runs. He was also sharp in his one outing against the Yankees this year, holding them to two runs over 7 innings out in Anaheim and picking up the win in the process.

The Angels trot out a pretty formidable line up as well, one that ranked second in the AL behind the Yankees in runs scored. That's pretty impressive when you consider that they were only 3rd in OBP and 4th in slugging percentage (Yanks were first in both). Their oft-discussed running game has surely filled in some of those gaps. The always-pesky Chone Figgins will be leading off and Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Vlad Guerrero make up the heart of their order. Kendry Morales has put up Mark Teixeira-style numbers this year but he's only hitting 6th.

Of course, CC Sabathia will be ascending to the rubber for the Yankees and trying to wade though that line up tonight. He wasn't in his start against the Twins (which was 9 freaking days ago), but he did strike out 8 and walk none in 6 2/3 innings. He gave up 8 hits and 2 runs (one earned) and needed 113 pitches to do it, but showed that he was capable of finding his command under pressure.

He didn't fare well in either of his starts against the Angels during the regular season this year. In 13 1/3 innings of work, he gave up 9 ER, 17 hits, took the loss in both games but did strike out 11 while walking only 4. Decent peripheral numbers, but that's not much to hang your hat on. We're only interested in the bottom line from here on out.

The Yanks offense, outside of A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and a couple timely hits by Mark Teixeira didn't look too hot against the Twins. Their batting line of .225/.288/.431 isn't going to get it done against the Angels, much less earn them a sweep.

Right now, we're still at the phase where nobody has a clue where this series is going to go. Hopefully this is going to be a great match up; an all-time classic. But what has happened this season, in the ALDSes, in 2005 or in 2002 isn't going to mean much after tonight. Hopefully the Yanks can pull it off, but who knows? Let's go Yanks.

They don't know,
Like I know,
Do you know?
They don't know,
I don't know.

Game 88: C.C. Rider

The Yankees haven't done well in symbolic games this year. They got shellacked on Opening Day in Baltimore, they lost the opener at the New Stadium, and they are 0-8 against the Red Sox. A.J. Burnett lost his match ups against former teammates Josh Beckett and Roy Halladay, and the Yanks couldn't get to Carl Pavano in either of the games he started against them. They've lost series against the lowly Nationals and Marlins.

Today is another game that will seem to represent more than just a tally in the win or loss column. The Yanks send their ace to the mound to avoid a sweep against their achillies heel: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Californa on Planet Earth or whatever the fuck they call themselves. CC Sabathia hasn't fared well in day games this year (including both of the openers mentioned above), failing to notch a win in 6 starts mostly due to a 5.49 ERA in those outings. The seven innings of one run ball he threw last week against the Twins lowered his ERA to 3.70 on the season and earned him win number 8 on the season.

John Lackey goes for the Angels. After spending time on the DL to begin the season, Lackey return to the Angels on May 16th but hasn't been the ace they have known in previous seasons. In 11 starts, he has a 5.18 ERA, a 3-4 record and 79 hits in 66 innings.

A win today would erase some of the shame of the last two days of blown leads and sloppy play, ease the cross country flight back home and send the Yanks into the All-Star break on a somewhat positive note. The right guy is on the mound, looking for his 9th win of the season. Although we are past the first half mark, the All-Star Break is typically seen as the midway point of the season. There will be much pontificating about the state of the team and and their #1 hurler based on where they leave off this afternoon, so here's to hoping the big fella can find his day game stride.

We'll now see, C. C. Rider,
We'll now see, see what you have done.