Game 38 Recap

1. After Phil Hughes sat the Sox down in order in the first, the Yankees made it abundantly clear that this start would be nothing like Daisuke Matsuzka's last one. Before Dice-K could blink, the Bombers had loaded the bases with two singles by Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner and a walk to Mark Teixiera. A-Rod battled through a seven pitch at bat consisting of nothing by fastballs and after fouling two off, finally found one he liked. He served it into right center for a single and put the Yankees up 2-0.

Robinson Cano swung at the first pitch he saw and hit a deep, looping line drive to left. Jeremy Hermida went back after it but couldn't make the play and the ball caromed off the wall and back into the field. If nobody was on base, Cano could have easily made it to second, but A-Rod had to hold up to see if the ball was caught and was nearly passed by Cano. It went in the books as a RBI single.

Still with no one out, Francisco Cervelli lined a double into the gap in right center that scored A-Rod. Cano was sent home but a strong throw from Darnell McDonald and a solid block of the plate by Victor Martinez gave the Sox their first out of the inning. However, Cervelli advanced to third base on the play and scored on a sac fly by Marcus Thames. Add all of that up and the Yanks were ahead 5-0 after the first inning.

2. Kevin Youkilis led off the top of the second with a single, advanced to second on a wild pitch and scored on a two out single by Adrian Beltre, cutting the Yanks lead to 5-1.

3. The Yanks got that run back in the third. Brett Gardner worked a two out walk and Mark Teixeira drove him in with a double that looked like a home run off the bat. McDonald was fooled too as he got to the ball in time but overran it slightly and it hit off of his forearm as he neared the wall. 6-1 Yanks.

4. David Ortiz, who has now driven in seven runs in his past four games, lifted a sky high home run to the mezzanine level in right during the fourth inning that made it 6-2.

5. Phil Hughes got two easy outs to begin the fifth inning but the final out was much more elusive. Marco Scutaro fell behind 1-2, but fouled back three straight pitches before punching a single back up the middle. Dustin Pedroia also fell behind 1-2 before fouling off four in a row, taking a ball and serving a double to left. J.D. Drew came to the plate with men on second and third, promptly fell behind 0-2 but fought back and eventually hooked a ball around the right field foul pole to bring the Sox right back in it. 6-5 Yankees.

6. Cervelli flipped a two out single to center in the fifth and was driven in on a double by Thames. 7-5 Yanks.

7. Boone Logan began the sixth inning for the Yanks and the first thing he did was fall behind Victor Martinez 3-0. VMart took one for a strike but then mashed a home run to left field to bring the Sox within one run.

8. After pitching a scoreless seventh, Chan Ho Park came back on for the 8th and allowed the Sox to complete an improbable comeback. Drew led off with a single to right and the Fackin' Youkstah drilled a two run home run to left field to put the Sox ahead 8-7. Victor Martinez followed with another solo shot (this on over the Yanks' bullpen in right) and just like that, the Yankees were trailing by two runs with only six outs left to use up and bottom third of their line up due up.

9. Juan Miranda pinch hit in the eighth inning and brought the tying run to the plate when he worked a walk but Daniel Bard struck out Derek Jeter to end the frame.

Gardner led off the ninth inning with a slicing double just out of the reach of McDonald and Teixeira got the crowd going with a long, loud out on the warning track. Jonathan Papelbon didn't get off so easy with A-Rod. Alex was waiting for a fastball on the first pitch and absolutely blasted a homer into the Red Sox bullpen.

Cano flew out to deeeeep center and Papelbon hit Cervelli on the elbow with a pitch. Knowing that he was the only catcher available, Frankie was none too please, but he took his base without much of a scene. Then, like A-Rod, Marcus Thames was ready for a first pitch fastball and smashed it into the right field seats to give the Yankees their first walkoff win of the year. Final score: Yankees 11, Red Sox 9.

IFs, ANDs & BUTs

• Hughes was just one strike away three different times from escaping the fifth inning with a four run lead with a chance to throw another frame. Instead, he threw a combined 22 pitches to Scutaro, Pedroia and Drew and was chased from the game right then and there. he was still in line for the win until CHoP let the lead slip away in the 8th.
  
  
• Phil just didn't have his best stuff tonight, as only 5 of his 103 pitches were swinging strikes. His cutter was working to some extent but it came back to bite him. He threw 30 of them - 24 for strikes - but two of them left the park off the bats of Ortiz and Drew.
  
  
• PitchFX had Hughes throwing 21 two-seam fastballs, but I think they were actually four-seamers with too much arm-side run that fouled up the classification since Hughes doesn't throw a two-seamer, as far as I know. If so, it's an indication that his mechanics were slightly askew, and as Al Leiter likes to say, he wasn't "getting on top of his fastball" enough.
  
  
• With Victor Martinez due up in the 6th inning, Girardi went to Boone Logan, which was pretty odd considering that Martinez has been great against lefties this year and terrible against righties (and that Boone Logan sucks). Not to put too much stock in small sample size splits, but for switch hitters, since they have two different swings, it seems like they are more significant. That could have been a good enough reason to go to Chan Ho Park in the sixth instead of the seventh, but instead VMart jacked one off of Logan.
  
  
• Neither Joba Chamberlain nor David Robertson were available tonight, and that certainly led Joe Girardi to try to stretch two innings out of Park in his first appearance off of the DL. During his second inning is when the wheels really came off and Youk and Martinez hit back to back homers.
  
  
• Evening out some of the bad luck from his start in Detroit, Javy Vazquez picked up the win for facing one batter in the 9th.
  
  
• The double in the first inning brought Francisco Cervelli up to an unthinkable 11 for 14 with runners in scoring position on the season. That would be incredible for Albert Puljos, let alone a guy who was a below average hitter when he was in AA just a year ago.
  
  
• In the fifth inning, Phil Hughes threw a fastball to Youk inside and at knee level that sent him to the dirt in an effort to dodge it and drew a loud applause from the crowd.
  
  
• A.J. Burnett timed the walkoff pie perfectly. Thames was just beginning his interview with Kim Jones and just as he started to answer her first question, got slammed.
  
  
• I like Thames significantly more than I did before this game started. Funny how those things work.
  
  
• This was your typical Yankees-Red Sox game, checking in at 3:47 with 346 pitches thrown.

This had the potential to be a terribly frustrating loss but instead it was a thrilling victory. Matt was there, in the batter's eye seats and hopefully he'll have a little bit to share about his experience tomorrow. This mini-series should wrap up tomorrow at 7:05, but there is a chance that the weather may not cooperate.

Today In Gross Overreactions

After last night's game, the Boston media questioned David Ortiz about his 0 for 7 start and asked if he was concerned that this might be indicative of another slow beginning for the slugger. Ortiz, unamused, justifiably responded unpleasantly:

"Shit happens. Then you guys talk shit. Two fucking games already. Motherfuckers are going crazy. What's up with that, man? Shit. There's fucking 160 games left. Y'all fuckers go ahead and hit for me."

Ortiz then threw a jar of his spicy mango salsa at the assembled writers and stormed off to continue his months-long quest to get the to bottom of his positive steroid test.

While I may have made up that last sentence, Ortiz brings up a very valid point. We're just two games into a six month-long season. There have been any number of things that have been overreacted to over the past three days, but in my opinion none has been more egregious than the hosannas thrown at Joba Chamberlain because he recorded two strikeouts in the eighth inning last night.

I'm tired of reading about Joba Chamberlain. For nearly three years now, every pitch he's thrown, every fist he's pumped, every start he's made, every trot from the bullpen, every fastball that's fallen short of our expected velocity has been overanalyzed to death.

I refrained from commenting when it was announced he would pitch out of the bullpen this year. It's not the role in which I want to see Chamberlain, but someone had to lose the competition, and I'd probably be just as unhappy if Phil Hughes were banished to the bullpen for another year. I still hope the Chamberlain will be a starter in the long haul, so perhaps my crankiness today is driven by those feelings.

But I'm absolutely stupefied by the sheer volume of things I've heard and read proclaiming that last night's performance signifies that 2007 Joba is back.

I've seen the picture of him roaring and fist pumping in about seven different places. I heard Jorge Posada use his post-game interview with Kim Jones as an excuse to get up on his soapbox and say he thought Joba belonged in the pen all along. I heard Kay, Singleton, and Leiter trot out the same old tired debate lines that have been beaten to death over the past two and half years. I heard the normally level-headed Jack Curry say on the post-game show that Chamberlain has to earn the eighth inning job and his performance last night did just that. I've read countless pieces this morning, both from the beat writers and the blogosphere, that have waxed poetic about Joba recapturing his former fire.

To which I quote David Ortiz: "There's fucking 160 games left!" Joba was great last night, there's no questioning that. But have we forgotten that he was horseshit on Sunday night? Did we forget that he needed 33 pitches to get four outs, that his fastball was sitting at about 92-93 MPH, and that he continued to nibble and not challenge hitters? Do we forget that Sunday's appearance reminded us of all the troublesome aspects of Joba's 2009 season that we've analyzed and debated and beaten into the ground over and over again? Or does that get thrown out the window because he had a great (2/3 of an) eighth inning last night?

I'm not trying to say that Joba can't or won't be a weapon out of the bullpen this year. I'm not saying that the bullpen isn't where his ultimate fate lies. I'm not saying that we shouldn't be happy with his performance last night. But before we go lionizing him like it's August of '07 all over again, before we declare him The Eighth Inning Guy, before we go plastering his mouth agape, fist pumping picture on another post, could we please, please just step back for a minute and realize that last night was just one game and that it doesn't guarantee that the rest of Joba's 2010 campaign will play out like the final two months of the 2007 season?

AL East Q&A: Patrick Sullivan

Now we have reached the point in our interview series where we must take a long, hard look at our most hated rivals. While the Yanks went the trade route this offseason, the Red Sox signed four free agents - three starting position players and a starting pitcher -and changed the look of their team significantly.

Here to represent the enemy and make sense of their offseason is Patrick Sullivan from the most excellent Baseball Analysts. Patrick has been writing for BA since 2007 and he was contributing to The House That Dewey Built before Aaron Boone stepped in against Tim Wakefield. He's an OG in this blogging game, so despite the fact that he's a dirty rotten Sawx fan who once went by the moniker "Sully", he deserves our respect. Let's get to it:

Fack Youk: How do you think Lackey, Lester, Beckett, Wakefield/Dice-K and Bucholz stack up against the Yankee quintet of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Vazquez and Hughes?

Patrick Sullivan: It's a great question. I think I would take Boston's for two reasons. The first is that, Wakefield notwithstanding, they're a bit younger. The other reason is that Clay Buchholz has experienced some Big League starting pitching success, something Hughes cannot yet claim. But really, you could throw both teams' top 6 into a hat and assign 3 each randomly to one team and you would still have to squint to determine whose trio was better. I will also say this. I DO put just the tiniest bit of stock into some of the make-up concerns regarding Vazquez. Those things typically aren't my bag, but I think pitching a quarter of his games against Tampa and Boston could take its toll on him. And by "take its toll" I mean he might merely be very good as opposed to a Cy Young candidate.

FY: Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre were the two biggest offensive acquisitions of the offseason but they are best known for their defense (although Cameron's strikeout totals and Beltre's testicle are both pretty legendary). With Jacoby Ellsbury shifting to left and Marco Scutaro manning short, how significant do you expect their improvement in the field will be?

PS: I will leave the quantification of the improvements to others but it's not hard to conclude that the Red Sox made some very significant improvements defensively. Last year the Red Sox had a bad center fielder, bad shortstops, and two of the very worst left fielders and third basemen respectively. This season, they might have gold glove candidates at all four positions. What does that mean in terms of runs saved? Not sure, maybe somewhere on the order of 4-6 wins though?

FY: Judging by some of the reaction in the media, it appears that the Sox placed an increased emphasis on defense at the expense of their offense this offseason. Do you think their decision to allow their opponents to hit during one of their halves of an inning was a wise one?

PS: There are real and interesting concerns for mainstream writers to sink their teeth into regarding Boston's offense. You have Youkilis, Pedroia, Beltre, Scutaro and Cameron who all hit right handed. Victor Martinez is not as good from the left side. Jacoby Ellsbury has no split at all. David Ortiz is a shell of himself. It's only J.D. Drew that poses a bigtime threat to righties for the Red Sox and in a division with Garza, Shields, Niemann, Vazquez, Burnett, Hughes, Tillman, Marcum, etc, that could be a real problem.

What the media will do, however, is make vague references to the Red Sox "struggling" on offense this season. They won't quantify it and they won't talk about it relative to the rest of the league, but instead just float concerns. The narrative goes "oh noes, they lost Jason Bay." What nobody wants to acknowledge is how bad their shortstops were last year and that Scutaro will improve them there, and that a full year from VMart and a little Papi bounce back should just about cover the whole Bay-to-Cameron "downgrade". Hey, I guess you need something to write about.

But let's be clear. This is an excellent offense. Victor Martinez is the 2nd best hitting catcher in the AL. Youkilis was the AL's best offensive first baseman last season and Drew was the best right fielder. Pedroia and Scutaro were top-3. Ellsbury's .354 wOBA would have placed him 5th among left fielders in 2009. So what we're really talking about are Beltre, Cameron and Ortiz. And that's fine. But man it must suck to be a Pirates or Royals or Padres fan and hear Red Sox fans and the Boston media bitch because their three worst hitters are Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and David Ortiz.

FY: Scutaro is 34 years old and has relatively little in the way of experience at shortstop or full seasons worth of plate appearances under his belt. Have the Sox finally found some stability in that position or is he just another flawed stopgap/placeholder for Jose Iglesias? Any hope left for Jed Lowrie?

PS: I don't know. I like the deal because the Red Sox have money, they need to field a shortstop, and Marco was the best out there. In some ways I think Scutaro's lack of experience may work to his advantage given the lack of wear and tear. Looking at it another way, in his only two seasons as a full-timer, 2008 and 2009, he averaged out as a 3.6 win player.

The Red Sox love his defense and think he can hit at an above average level for a SS. And if he doesn't, Lowrie's there. And if he does but Iglesias is pushing him, Scutaro's ability to play second and third make him a terrific super-utility guy in towards the end of that contract.

FY: David Ortiz got off to an incredibly slow start last year, hitting just.185/.286/.283 with one home run through his first 45 games. However, to our dismay, the reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated and he accumulated a line of .264/.354/.546 with 27 dingers in his final 105. What should we expect from Papi this year?

PS: I have no idea at all but if I had to take a stab I would peel 30 or 40 points off of his slug over the last 105 games and leave his average and on-base about the same. He'll be about an average designated hitter, I think.

FY: Last year the infamous Mr. Youkilis finished with a higher wOBA than Mark Teixeira (.413 to .402) and despite hitting the DL in May, was worth about a half of a win more than the Yanks' first baseman according to FanGraphs. HOW CAN YOU EXPLAIN THIS OBVIOUS MISCALCULATION/INJUSTICE/TRAVESTY? What are the chances that Youk is more valuable than Teix again this season?

PS: I don't think Kevin Youkilis is better than Mark Teixeira, even though he had a better season in 2009. I'm pretty sure Tex won the World Series, though. One thing I will say is that Youkilis is absurdly overlooked. He's a top-10 hitter and an excellent, versatile fielder and yet I wonder how many out there would consider him among baseball's best players. The Boston media and some fans are in hysterics over the loss of Jason Bay asking who in the lineup is a top-tier hitter. Meanwhile, YOUKILIS IS A BETTER HITTER THAN BAY. It's nuts.

FY: Thoughts on the supposedly impending Beckett extension? Better value than Lackey? Than Burnett?

PS: At the numbers being floated, I would like it. But I have written about this at Baseball Analysts quite a bit this off-season. You need to look at each player on a case by case basis, but the pitcher who excels well into his mid-30's is rare. Carrying two of them - Lackey and Beckett - and having them account for a quarter of the payroll or so annually is a significant risk as I see it. What a possible Beckett deal says to me is that the Red Sox think they'll be getting serious contributions from another wave of cheap youngsters soon. And seriously, Casey Kelly is stupidly awesome so I guess I can't blame them on that front.

As for the latter portion of the question, I think Beckett is better than Lackey, who's better than Burnett. There, I said it.

FY: Will Mike Lowell make it through the season as a Red Sock (I refuse to use Sox as a singular)?

PS: Nah.

FY: Lastly, how will the AL East shakeout when it's all said and done?

PS: No clue at all, but how about, Yanks, Sox (Wild Card), Rays, O's, Jays?

Like most, I think New York, Boston and Tampa, in some order, are the AL's three best teams and maybe the best 3 in all of baseball. I just think the Yankees' offense is superior to Boston's by a greater margin than Boston's pitching and defense are to New York's. So they win by a couple games. The Rays scare the ever living hell out of me.

FY: Sounds about right to me. Thanks for your insight, Patrick.

Checking In With Our Friend Gino

You guys remember Gino Castignoli, don't you?

He's the construction worker who thought he cursed the Yankees by burying a David Ortiz jersey in the New Stadium? How'd that work out for you?

Yanks Flip The Script On The Sox

After a week of people declaring that the Yankees weren't built for success in the postseason, it was the Red Sox last night who took some hits - both literally and figuratively - to what John Kruk thought was the only team "ready for the playoffs". Now Boston's rotation is under the microscope.

It was a tough night for Jon Lester who was getting hurt by the Yankees even before Melky Cabrera ripped that line drive that hit him just above his knee in the bottom of the third. It was a scary moment for all baseball fans when Lester hit the deck. He was on his back for quite a while, appeared to be in serious pain and had to be helped off the field. However, X-Rays were negative and Terry Francona thinks Lester will make his next start.

Last night was the young lefty's worst outing since May 9th against the Rays, as he allowed 11 baserunners in just 2 1/3 IP, four of whom scored on his own watch and the last who probably would have came to the plate regardless of who was pitching. His post game comments sounded like something Joba Chamberlain might have said: "I felt like I had good stuff tonight, but it was one of those nights where [the Yankees] made it seem like I didn't."

Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger declared early on last night that it was backwards night at the Stadium and instead of his usual routine Chamberlain has decided to pitch well but then rip himself to the media after the game. That latter part didn't come true, but Joba's final line of (6IP, 5H, 3ER, 1BB, 5K) probably undersells his performance last night just a bit. He'd retired every batter he faced until allowing a solo shot to Victor Martinez with two outs in the fourth inning. As Michael Kay endlessly reminded us, the long bottom of the third due in part to Lester's injury delay probably didn't help much.

The other two runs Chamberlain allowed come via an opposite field 2 run homer by David Ortiz with two outs in the 6th, so he very nearly escaped with only one earned run. Even still, Joba needed only 86 pitches to do his work and there was plenty to be encouraged about.

Chamberlain got into trouble in the fifth inning with men on 2nd and third with no one out but squeezed out of the jam without allowing a run by getting Jason Varitek to pop out to third, striking out Alex Gonzalez swinging and inducing a grounder to Jacoby Ellsbury.

Speaking of the Red Sox' Captain, the Yankees ran absolutely wild against him tonight, stealing a season high 7 bases. It started when Derek Jeter singled and immediately took of for 2nd in the bottom of the first, setting the tone for the rest of the game. The inability to prevent runners from stealing could turn out to be a tragic flaw for the Sox when they match up with the Angels in the ALDS. The Yanks did their part to expose that tonight with Robinson Cano even getting in one the action, picking up just his 5th SB of the year.

A-Rod was the biggest thief of the night, swiping three bags but that only begins to describe his contributions. Alex didn't make an out all night, going 3-3 with a HR (off of Lester), a double, two walks and 4 RBIs.

It was an excellent night for the Yankees and a terrible one for the Red Sox. It was a testament to how quickly things can change. Which of these two teams looks primed for the playoffs now, pundits? Let's not get too excited though because things will probably change a little more today when CC and Dice-K take the mound at 4:00.

Bias? What Bias?

It is with trepidation that I even wade into the cesspool that is the steroids debate, but Jack Cust opened his mouth, and the Yankees are currently playing Oakland, and I don't really have anything else I want to write about right now, so here goes....

For some unknown reason, Cust gave an interview with the AP yesterday, in which he touched upon his name being in the Mitchell Report and railed against the entire investigation, claiming it was biased due to George Mitchell's presence on the Red Sox Board of Directors:

With all the other stuff going on, with a lot of the guys coming out recently — big-name guys — to me it's kind of funny they spent all that money on the Mitchell Report and a bunch of hearsay and the guy who made all the money off it happened to work for the Red Sox. Were there any Red Sox on the report? To me, that's kind of a joke. How does that happen? It's coming out now with guys on that team. The guy worked for the Red Sox — they spent all kinds of millions of dollars — and then no one there had their name brought up.

That's not entirely accurate. Off the top of my head, two players were named in the report for events that took place during their tenure with the Sox: Paxton Crawford and Manny Alexander. Not exactly world beaters there, but it's a start.

I'm not sure where to begin this. First, the report was an absolute mess from the word "go", and will likely stand as the biggest in a series of blunders that has marked Bud Selig's now seventeen year tenure as Commissioner. While an investigation into steroid use in the sport was likely warranted, Bud jumped on that train about fifteen years too late, closing the barn door long after the entire stable of horses had run out. Choosing a principal investigator with a potential conflict of interest was a poor decision*. Sending him out to lead a multi-year, multi-million dollar investigation without any sort of subpoena power or any ability to grant immunity was a poorer one.
*As was naming an owner to serve as "acting" commissioner for six years, then letting him keep the job for an additional eleven and counting...

Without any ability to force people to talk to him, Mitchell was grasping at straws from the start. Exactly two active Major Leaguers spoke with him: Frank Thomas, of his own volition, and Jason Giambi who had the option of either cooperating or being suspended after he committed the cardinal sin of stating that baseball as a whole was wrong in the way they handled performance enhancing drugs.

Without player cooperation, nearly the entire Mitchell Report was based on the testimony of stool pigeons Kurt Radomski and Brian McNamee, who were forced to cooperate as part of federal plea deals. Radomski was a longtime clubbie with the Mets, McNamee a former strength and conditioning coach with the Yankees. Around which city and which teams do you think the majority of the report would focus?

While I do find it curious that there is a general lack of players from Mitchell's organization appearing in the report, I'd imagine that's more a result of the investigation being toothless than it is a function of any bias. If anything, the recent revelations of positive tests from both Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz (illegally leaked by employees of our federal government by the way, who in turn possess that information via a direct violation of labor law) should illustrate that no team, no clubhouse, not the Red Sox, not the Yankees, not anyone, was immune from this garbage.

As for Cust, I can understand his frustration with carrying the scarlett letter of being named in the Mitchell Report. His inclusion was tenuous at best, hearsay at worst. On a daily basis, Cust is likely surrounded by both teammates and opponents who did things as bad, if not worse, and haven't been outed.

That said, Cust was given every opportunity to respond to Mitchell, and like all card carrying MLBPA memebers, he refused to do so. From a legal perspective, I can understand that position. But if Cust, or any other of the accused, punts on his opportunity to clear his name, he loses much of his right to complain about it. And that see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil mentality is exactly how the MLB and MLBPA found themselves in this mess in the first place.

Wrapping It Up For The Weekend

Sorry Fackers. Like Jay, I'm heading out for a little weekend trip to the heart of enemy territory, so things are going to be a bit sparse around here. We'll have previews, maybe recaps, maybe scattered updates. But don't count on too much.

That also means that even though last night's game marked the two thirds point of the season, we won't be doing our usual extrapolations and ZIPS. Sorry math geeks. If you have a third grade education you should be able to figure out how to do the extrapolations on your own. For the ZIPS projections, check out the awesome fangraphs.com

Before I go, here are a few Sox related thoughts:

During the series in Boston in June, I posted a recap of the Sox off-season moves compared to the those of the Yankees. Though lauded in the media, they haven't been too great. Smoltz is pitching like he has a giant fork sticking out of his back, Kotsay was DFA's then traded, Bard was released before the season started, Penny's been so-so, Baldelli's on his second DL stint, and Varitek will now be losing playing time to Victor Martinez.

I was a little perplexed by the Sox deadline moves - particularly the quick flip of LaRoche for Casey Kotchman. They way I figured it, Youkilis, Kotchman, Lowell, Martinez, Varitek, and Lowell would all be fighting for playing time amongst the corners, catcher, and DH. Last night's line up may have given some insite into their thought process. With Jason Bay sidelined with a sore hammy, Youk was in leftfield. Youkilis made 18 OF apperances in 2006, but has played less than 9 innings out there since. And left field in Yankee Stadium is far different than catching caroms off the Monster.

I wonder though, if J.D. Drew continues to struggle, might the Sox give Youk more time in the OF to get the other bats in at first and third? Time will tell, but from my vantage point in the upper deck last night, Youkilis didn't look too comfortable out in left. He was continually short-arming his throws like an infielder as well. But it speaks volumes as to the guy's versatility that he was able to that. Fack him anyway.

I was a bit surprised that Francona left former Yankee Billy Traber out there for so long. It was the equivalent of waving the white flag. Given the way the Yanks swung the bats it may have been the smart move, but seemed to be in stark contrast to the all-in look of the initial line up, i.e. Youkilis in left.

Lastly, I'm extremely interested to see what comes out of the David Ortiz press conference tomorrow. I realize it's convenient for the union to address this now since they're based in NYC, but it can't the wisest move for Ortiz to do this right in the thick of a critical series against the Yankees, in New York. You knwo the tabloids are going to be hanging on every word like a pack of hungry dogs.

That's it until the preview folks. Enjoy your Friday.

Game 108: Maybe This Time

It's been just under two months since the Yankees and the Red Sox squared off which, over the course of a baseball season, seems like forever. The last time they played was a month before the All-Star Break and 47 games ago. Now the Yanks get to face Boston in 7 out of their next 17 games and will have a chance to start paying off some of the debt they accrued during the first 8 machinations of the season series.

Regardless of what some financial institutions and Mark Teixeria would like you to believe, Yankees vs. Red Sox is different from any other rivalry in baseball. It's the reason that I could call this site "Fack Youk" and knew people would not only understand what it meant but agree with the sentiment. Aside from liking the Yankees, the next thing that we all have in common is hating the Red Sox. There's more mutual disdain and attention and anticipation, especially this time around. You don't see Cubs bloggers writing open letters to Carlos Zambrano that sound like this when the Cardinals come into town (even though Joba has never actually hit him).

For those waiting to hear the New Stadium sound like the Old House, tonight is the night. For the first time since he was outed for failing the steroid test in 2003, David Ortiz will be welcomed back to the Bronx with a raucous chorus of boos and "STER-OID" chants. For the first time since September 16th, 2006, the Yankees play host to the Sox with a lead in the division. But the desperation from that 0-8 start will be palpable.

It's not a do or die series for the Yanks; they could get swept again and still be just 1.5 games back with 7 head to head games still remaining. But it's most certainly going to feel like it. When a season series is as one-sided as this one has been, it feels like it is due for a correction. We went through it in early June, feeling that with each passing game that the Yanks we just due to take one. It feels that way now more than ever. The Sox are playing .500 ball away from Fenway and the Yankees are 35-17 at home. The Yanks are 20-10 over their last 30 while the Sox are 15-15. Everything but the season series favors the fellows donning the Pinstripes.

The biggest game of the series is tonight's. The Bombers need to get off the mat in the worst way, before the pressure keeps building, the fans start booing and things get ugly. The pitching match up tonight gives us more reason to be optimistic.

The Sox send John Smoltz, who has been disappointing since joining the team in late June. He's made seven starts and given up 29 runs in 36 2/3 IP, which translates to a 7.12 ERA. He's only walked 5 while striking out 30, but has allowed 50 hits and 6 home runs.

The Yanks counter with their hottest pitcher at the moment, Mr. Joba Chamberlain. He's been solid over his past 7 starts (4-0, 3.05 ERA) and downright dominant during his past 3 (3-0, 0.83). He's given up 8 hits in his last 21 1/3 innings while striking out 19. This is the Joba everyone was waiting for when he was struggling earlier in the season. He's made four career starts against the Sox, averaging 6 innings a pop with a 1-1 record. He struck out 12 in just 5 2/3 his last time out against them, but allowed 4 runs in the process. He's a better pitcher away from Yankee Stadium than he is at home, but as a notorious nose for the big moment.

Today is also a special day in Yankee history. As we mentioned last Friday, it's been 30 years since Thurman Munson passed away. Tonight marks the 30th anniversary of his funeral where Bobby Murcer delivered the eulogy and drove in all five runs in a 5-4 victory over the Orioles later that night.

We're bringing out the big guns for the song tonight; this is serious business. Hopefully we'll be hearing more from this gentleman later on tonight.

She's gonna hold me fast,
And I'll be home at last,
Not a loser anymore,
Not like the last time, and the time before.

All of the odds are, in my favor,
Something's bound to begin,
It's gotta happen, happen sometime,
Maybe this time I'll win.

"Let's Move On"

Yesterday, I dropped the sentence above at the very end of the Manny and Ortiz post. It was met with some friendly disagreement in the comments so I just wanted to take a moment to clarify the point.

The overriding sentiment from the commenters was that the Sox fans had their fun with all the steroid controversy surrounding the Yankees and now it's time to give it back to them.

Sox fans were merciless with Jason Giambi until the day he left, no doubt. They got various steroids chants going for Andy Pettitte on the heels of the Mitchell Report, but those have largely subsided. They were anxious to point out that they had the "clean" years of Roger Clemens' career. But let's see how aggressive with the "You-Took-Ster-Oids" chants they are next time A-Rod comes to Fenway. Like any other fanbase Red Sox Nation has it's fair share of dickheads, but most people with a reasonable amount of frontal lobe activity are going to realize they are now the pot calling the kettle black. If any of the fackin' Sullies and Murphs do start to get mouthy, Yanks fans can counter with "So-Did-Pa-Pi". What are we going to do beyond that?

I'd be lying if I said there wasn't an element of personal satisfaction and Soxenfreude involved in all of this. There more certainly is. Aside from the Yankees, it's the most central theme of this blog, for fuck's sake. But any of the idiots who were foolish enough to point the finger at the rest of the league, and really thought they were going to skate away with no stars on the Red Sox being implicated in PED use, and thought that 2004 was a gift from God, pure as the driven snow, just took a shot to the solar plexus. And that's good enough for me.

This news doesn't change what happened in 2004 from our eyes, though. The '04 roster of the Yankees included A-Rod, Gary Sheffield, Kevin Brown, Jason Giambi and almost certainly some other guys who haven't been outed yet. Their cheaters were a microscopic amount better (or just luckier) than our cheaters.

What we are heading towards is a realization that almost nothing is free from the stain of PEDs, one player and subsequently one fanbase at a time. Very few individual accomplishments and absolutely no Championships in say, the last 15-20 years or so are going to above reproach.

Like always, the Yankees are at the forefront of this, like they are in almost every aspect of baseball. We as Yankee fans are again ahead of the curve. Whether you like dragging people into the mud with you is a matter of personal preference, but it don't get a whole lot out of it.

Welcome To Club 103, Fellas

Back when the news of Manny's positive test in 2003 came to the forefront, I asked "why couldn't it have been Ortiz?", but I must admit that this isn't nearly as satisfying as I thought it would be.

Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, the sluggers who propelled the Boston Red Sox to end an 86-year World Series championship drought and to capture another title three years later, were among the roughly 100 Major League Baseball players to test positive for performance-enhancing drugs in 2003, according to lawyers with knowledge of the results.

First of all, thanks to the lawyers (Yankee fans, presumably) who chose two leak these two (and only these two) names out of the 98 or so that were still under wraps. If only the guy who conducted the Mitchell Report had any connections within the Red Sox organization, you might not have had to risk being held in contempt of court!

I think we can cast aside the notion that Manny's most recent test was an isolated incident. In light of this new information, given how steady his career numbers have been, it's hard to imagine when he was clean. With Ortiz on the other hand, his transition from Minnesota to Boston (in 2003) draws a pretty clear line. Whatever. Here's the fun part....

Hey David, are you ready to taste your own medicine and take a voluntary one year suspension?

"I would suggest everybody get tested, not random, everybody," he said. "You go team by team. You test everybody three, four times a year and that's about it."

And if a player tests positive for steroids?

"Ban 'em for the whole year," the slugger said.

Oops.

Objectively speaking, there is something pretty despicable about the fact that these guys were told the tests would remain anonymous, and now, one or two at a time they are leaking out like death by 1,000 papercuts. It's not fair, but like Omar Minaya would say, you can't put the cat back in the bottle.

The moral of today's news isn't that the Red Sox Championship is tainted, it's that we now understand the entire sport to be slightly more dirty than we previously assumed. It's not a good thing for the sport to have the accomplishments of the best players of an era systematically knocked down one by one. It's not going to be fun to look back in 10 or 15 years, when what timeframe actually defined the "steroids era" begins to crystalize, and realize that very few of the remarkable accomplishments we saw were as they seemed at the time.

Let's move on.

Big Papi Is En Fuego

No, I'm not talking about the fact that his average has reached a stratospheric .204 and has an OPS 30 points lower than David Eckstein.

The magic of Google Adsense brought me this gem.

/clicks link

AAAAAAAH! Papi, your beard is on fire!

But before you put that out, tell me more about what is in that snazzy-looking bottle...

Baseball star and fan favorite, David Ortiz launches Big Papi En Fuego, a new lifestyle hot sauce, which is never off season! Ortiz, a lifelong hot sauce enthusiast, was inspired to create the perfect hot sauce that was both spicy and flavorful. Big Papi En Fuego is made from a secret recipe, and while we can't give it away, the sauce does include fresh, natural ingredients such as habanera peppers and fresh lime. Big Papi En Fuego makes a great addition to marinades, cooking and cocktails. It is not just a hot sauce, but a way of life!

No... it's just a hot sauce. A hot sauce that could nevah compayah to Youk's fackin' hot sauce. Early reviews indicate it's not nearly as spicy as it used to be. Perhaps you could could use it to enhance some of Ortiz's Big Papi Salsa.

Papi's culinary empire also includes a red wine, but he's clearly got a ways to go before he attains Youk's status in the food industry.

Given his performance this year, all these red and hot items don't really fit his image from a marketing perspective. Perhaps he might want to partner with Ben and Jerry's for an ice cream. They could call it "Papi's Plunge" and have it feature sour grapes, humble pie and a sense of nostalgia. It would taste worse than vanilla but cost ten times more.

Crazy Eights

Jay is sick, literally. I'm tired. And I think all of us (the Yankee fans at least) are sick and tired of the way things have played out between the Yankees and Red Sox in 2009. Tonight marks eight losses in eight games this year. That's crazy. Three of the losses have been by one run. In five of the losses the Yankees held the lead at some point. And the Yankees were in every game with the exception of Tuesday's series opening clunker.

There's an inordinate amount of attention placed on these games, so the losses end up seeming worse than they are, as if they count extra in the standings. We could break it down. We could complain about Melky trying to bunt again. In the second inning. Again. We could debate the merits of leaving CC in for the eighth. Or bemoan the performance of the bullpen. Or wonder what role the weather played. Or contemplate just what the hell Swisher was thinking getting doubled off again. Or make fun of Johnny Damon for dropping a fly a ball. Or wonder if Brett Gardner was doing his Johnny Damon impersonation on his eighth inning throw. Or discuss the merits of A-Rod getting plunked and the subsequent warning. Or wonder how much Brad Penny's trade value increased tonight. Or ponder if David Ortiz will be given a curtain call for every home run he hits this year.

But I'm just not in the mood for it tonight. The Yanks took a beating the past three nights. On the field and in the psyche. Or at least the psyche of the fan base. But last I checked, you couldn't win the World Series or the division in June. These things will happen over the course of a season. The Yanks are still only two games back, and hold a six game edge in non head-to-head records. Maybe that's me just looking for a silver lining, but I'll remain hopeful that things will be different come August when they meet again. Let's not dwell on this. We'll just move on.

2009's first Subway Series starts tomorrow night. I hate interleague play. It's such a contrived gimmick. Games against the Mets mean nothing extra to me, and they really shouldn't mean anything at all. But perhaps this once, the tabloid hoopla surrounding this series will be a welcome distraction for both teams. The Yanks just got swept by the Sox and the Mets lost two of three to the Phightins to fall four games back. Come Sunday, one of these teams will leave the Stadium with a series win and feeling better about themselves than they do right now. Let's hope that team is the Yanks.

More Worthless: Wang Or Papi?

The parallels between these two didn't become apparent to me until I read this post on Mass Hysteria, which seemingly took just as much pleasure in Chien Ming Wang's demise as we have in Papi's. They have more in common than just their names being euphemisms for one's penis.

In the first inning of last night's game, we saw a clash of fallen heroes: Papi, the populist champion of Red Sox Nation and Wang, the most revered athlete in the island nation of Taiwan. The Dominican native has long dominated the battle between the two. In 44 plate appearances against Wang, Ortiz was hitting .432/.523/.703 with 7 walks. He worked another base on balls and won the symbolic battle of two stars wrapped in momentarily coinciding downward spirals.

Both have been a terrible detriment to their teams this year, but in different ways. If these two were actual methods of torture, Wang would be more like waterboarding (brutal for short stretches) whereas Ortiz is the equivalent of Chinese water torture (a slow drip that eventually drives you insane). So which is worse?

According to FanGraphs, Papi is far less valuable than Wang. He clocks in with a value of -$4.7M and a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of -1.0. Surprisingly, Wang is "only" costing the Yankees $600,000 and one tenth of a win. It would seem that the formula FG is using is letting Wang off the hook since he only pitched 21 1/3 innings so far this year. This should instead count against him, since his lack of length taxes the Yankees bullpen and has stranded them in every one of his starts. You can do a lot of damage in 21 1/3 innings. And Wang certainly has.

A starting pitcher has the ability to sabotage a game in a way no other player does. A starter giving up 6 runs in two innings is less valuable than anything a position player could do. Yes, even going 0-7 with 3Ks and leaving a small army on base (while DH'ing).

Here are Wang's 5 starts this year:

There's no way those only cost the Yankees 1/10th of a win.

In order for the Yankees to win any of those games, they would have to score more than the number of runs he allowed, obviously. Based on the Yankees offense this year, here are the probabilities that they score X or more runs in any given game.

Of course, this assumes that the bullpen is going to be perfect throughout the rest of the game, which is extremely unlikely when Wang averages only 2 2/3 innings per start and the Yankees bullpen has an ERA of 4.91. That number might even be a little favorable considering when you need to get 6 1/3 innings from the pen, you are using mop-up men or overtaxing your competent relievers.

So if you project how many runs the bullpen is likely to allow on top of Wang's performances and line those up with how probable it was for the Yankees to score more runs than that, you'd come away with a much better estimate of just how bad Wang has screwed the Yanks in his starts so far this year.

SPW% is the likelihood that the offense would score more runs than the pitching staff allowed in any given game. The most runs the Yanks have scored this year is 12 and that was only once, hence the 0% chance of winning the game against the Indians (which of course they lost 22-4) and the 1% chance against the Rays (2% chance they score 12 runs and 50% they win in extra innings).

Add those percentages up and you get a 54% win probability out of a total 500%. That's not costing the Yankees 1/10th of a win, friends, it looks a lot more like negative 4.5.

This obviously isn't overly scientific or definitive, so what do you think? Who would fetch the ham sandwich on the trade market and who would come with chips? Which one of these guys would you rather not have?

Hey, Zero Out Of Seven Ain't Bad...

Okay, I'm sorry. I lied. It's pretty bad.

In and of themselves, the 2 2/3 innings of 4ER ball Chien Ming Wang threw last night weren't as bad at the 2 2/3 wherein A.J. Burnett gave up 5 runs the night before. Unfortunately for the Yankees though, baseball games don't occur in a vacuum and the latest in a series of slow motion trainwrecks for the formerly dominant sinkerballer could have far-reaching implications.

All signs pointed to the Yankees turning it around last night at Fenway. They were due. Going winless in their last six appearances against the Sox was fluky and it was about time they got on the board. After a marginal outing against Texas, Wang seemed poised to right the ship. Neither of those things happened.

CMW stumbled right out of the gate. He walked J.D. Drew and Youk back to back in the first inning setting up an RBI single by Jason Bay. What was probably worse than the fact that he allowed a run was that he faced seven batters and used up 29 pitches. For a pitcher that still wasn't fully stretched out, it was an ominous beginning.

Jorge Posada tied it with a solo shot in the top of the 2nd, but the Sox opened up their half of the inning by going single, double, double and driving in two more runs. Wang retired the next three batters in a row, but a 9 pitch battle with the Fackin' Youkstah helped drive his pitch count to 58 after only two innings. Wang gave up a homer to Mike Lowell to lead off the 3rd which most likely sealed his fate. He was pulled in favor of Phil Hughes despite having just struck out Nick Green for the second out of the third inning.

69 pitches, 39 strikes, 5 earned runs, six hits and three walks marked CMW's second best start of the year. It's truly hard to believe that this guy was once a dominant pitcher in the Major Leagues. It pains me to say this, but Kei Igawa almost certainly would have done better than Wang has so far given the same opportunities.

Last night might be the last chance Wang gets in the starting rotation for a while, but that question alone is worthy of another entire post. His probable replacement, Phil Hughes, wasn't perfect either, but was a lot better than Wang allowing two runs in 3 2/3 IP. Those two came in the fourth on a two run shot by Youk and put the Sox up 6-2.

The Yankees did manage to claw their way back in the game and make it interesting. Back to back homers by Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira against Ramon Ramirez in the 7th brought the Bombers within one, but Okajima and Papelbon stifled the rally in the 8th and 9th. Teix continued his hot hitting, picking up nearly half the Yankees' hits, and was the only Pinstriper with a plate appearance to not leave a man on base. The Yanks left 20 men on in total (2 for 15 w/RISP). They are .141 in those situations for the season series.

The Yanks are averaging 4.0 runs per game against Boston this year, which wouldn't be bad if the Sox weren't scoring 7.3.

It could be worse. The Yankees could be floundering with a marginal record despite having played like the Rays are. They are still only one game back on the Sox after dropping all seven head to head meetings this year. It's a pretty incredible feat in its own right. A win tomorrow brings it back to square one.

The lesson for tonight is that due don't do shit. The same goes for tomorrow night. Just as a streak of coin flips ending up as tails doesn't alter the probability of the next flip, the victories piling up on the Red Sox' side of the ledger don't change the fact that tomorrow night's game is still about a 50/50 proposition.

/checks pitching match up for tomorrow

Okay, make that 60/40 Yanks.

Seriously... tomorrow will be the night. It has to be, right?

Maybe The Seventh Time Is A Charm?

[Pics from here since MLB.tv still doesn't have the archived game up yet]

The last time A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett squared off was the day of the NFL draft. That afternoon both of the former Marlin teammates were lit up with very similar lines, giving up 8 runs each, including 2HRs, in five innings of work.

Impossibly, Burnett's performance was actually worse tonight, the night of the MLB draft. He gave up 5 runs (3 earned) in 2 2/3IP, walked five batters, only struck out one and blew through 84 pitches (40(!) strikes) to get those 8 outs. He allowed his 12th home run this year in as as many starts, a deep blast to straightaway center to some chump with a .308 slugging percentage entering that at bat. In an amusing and unintentionally pathetic display, Sox fans called Papi out after this second inning two run jack for a curtain call. Congrats, Papi... You know you are a sad case when people are applauding things that you used to make look pretty routine not too long ago.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Josh Beckett subdued the Yankees offensively like they had been hit with a tranquilizer dart and stuffed in his trunk. In the process of being rung up on strikes eight times in six innings, only three men were able to reach base. No Yankee achieved that feat more than once in the game. Beckett carried a no-hitter into the fourth inning until he was unceremoniously jinxed by an anonymous commenter on the game post. When your team's lone offensive highlight is of someone breaking up the opposing pitcher's no-hitter, you know it wasn't a very fun contest to watch. After only 94 pitches through six innings, Terry Francona went to the bullpen, who kept the shut out in tact.

One of the pitchers he called on was highly touted prospect Daniel Bard. He worked a perfect ninth inning and came out throwing hard. So hard, in fact, that the YES guns repeatedly clocked his offspeed pitches in the high 90's and once at 100mph. Amazing.

The final pitch of the game was clearly a slider to Robinson Cano. 100MPH?

Although there were 11 walks issued in the game (7 by the Yankees), it wrapped up in a tidy 3:04. It was a damp affair, as mist swirled around Fenway throughout the entire contest. It was a horrible game to watch, but it least it didn't take all night like every Yanks vs. Sox game seems to. The six in a row the Sox have taken from the Yankees is the longest such streak since 1912.

That's enough masochism for tonight, I think. Hey, the Yanks are still tied for first with the Sox despite being 0-6 against them. Yaaay...

/downs more scotch.

Let's try it again tomorrow.

Game 58: Five to One

Five to one, baby
One in five
No one here gets out alive
You get yours baby,
I'll get mine
Gonna make it baby if we try

The old get older
and the young get stronger
May take a week and it may take longer
They got the guns but
We got the numbers.
Gonna win, yeah we're taking over

The Yankees are 0 and 5 against the Red Sox in 2009. Boston swept a three game set at Fenway April 24-26, then took a brief two game set at the Stadium on May 4th and 5th. The Yankees followed that series with two losses to Tampa. Since then however, they've been on a tear, going 21 and 8 in that stretch and winning 8 of 9 series. They enter the game tonight with a one game lead over the Sox. They look to get their first win of 2009 against the Sox tonight and make it One and Five against them for the sesason.

A.J. Burnett opposes Josh Beckett tonight in a rematch of the April 25th game. This should be a pitchers' duel, even if their last match-up turned into a slugfest. And David Ortiz will see if his new eye drops solve his problems.

"Five to One" appeared on The Doors' 1968 album Waiting for the Sun. 1968 was one of the most socially and politcally volatile years in the history of the U.S. Though Jim Morrison said that there was no political motivation to his lyrics, one theory suggested that the lyrics were a reference to how the younger generation outnumbered the older "establishment" and that the social and political landscape would soon change.

Perhaps the state of the Yankee-Red Sox rivalry is similar these days. The teams are essentially dead even head-to-head since the start of 2005. The Yankees hold a 40-39 edge in games but have been outscored 451-442 in that time. However, after nearly a century of having their hearts crushed annually, it feels as if the pendulum has swung the way of the Red Sox since coming back from an 0-3 deficit in the 2004 ALCS. Since then they've won two World Series while the Yankees haven't made it out of the ALDS.

But over the past month, the 2009 Yankees have shown many of the same characteristics of the teams that had great success against the Sox prior to game 4 of the 2004 ALCS. It's too early to tell if the momentum is swinging back the Yankees' way. It may take this week's series to find out; it may take longer. But a win tonight would be a good first step towards restoring order to the universe.

David Ortiz's Eye Chart

Big Papi, after being left out of the lineup for the Sox' victory 6-3 over the Tigers, is going to have his eyesight checked:

"I've been thinking about getting my eyes checked -- for real," he said. "My vision has always been 20-20, and I'm not feeling anything crazy, but I'm going to get it checked out."

Being the helpful chaps we are over here are Fack Youk, we have set up a free and easy eye test that our good buddy David or any other washed up slugger can use. Papi, just print the image below out on an 8 1/2" x 11" sheet of paper, tape it to the wall at eye level, and stand 10 feet away.

Nice Try, Sports Guy

It was only a matter of time until Bill Simmons weighed in on the demise of David Ortiz. We've already had some fun with it, but not nearly as much as our buddy Simon on Sports who did some digging on FanGraphs and found out that they estimate Ortiz's value on the free agent market to be negative $5.2M. 

In his most recent ESPN The Magazine column, Simmons sounds like he's left Papi for dead:

At first, we Sox fans thought we were just watching an early-season slump. Then three weeks passed and we started worrying. The guy couldn't hit the ball out of the infield. His bat was so slow he had to cheat on fastballs; even then, he couldn't catch up. One swing a night made him look like the drunkest batter in a beer league softball game. Look, I've seen slumps. This was different. This was the collapse of a career.

I'm not ready to throw dirt on the guy quite yet. His struggles weren't quite as bad as Ortiz, but at the begining of last year, everyone had completely given up on a 36 year old Carlos Delgado and he ended up raising his OPS by over 200 points in the second half.

Like I did when the Manny HGC story came out, Simmons assumed that there was a good chance Papi's torrid mid-00's were a product of the juice, but he's since changed his tune. 

He just looked old. It reminded me of watching Jim Rice fall apart in the late '80s, when he lost bat speed overnight the way you and I lose a BlackBerry. That was painful too.

By mid-May, I was pondering another theory: Maybe Papi was older than he claimed. In Seth Mnookin's book Feeding the Monster, he recounts the story of how Boston nearly blew the chance to acquire Ortiz because they were concerned that he was much older than the media guide said.

This is an intersting theory, and right off the bat it seems to make a lot of sense. High profile Dominican guys like Vlad Guerero and Miguel Tejada have both been busted for fudging their ages recently, so the when performance seems out of line, it's reasonable to question that. 

Watching Papi flounder now, I'd believe he's really 36 or 37 (not 33) before I'd believe PEDs are responsible.

If he was three years older, it would make it more likely to me that Ortiz used PEDs.

On the surface, Ortiz being older seems to explain away his decline and works to rationalize him at this stage of his career. However, Ortiz's prime already took place in his late 20's and early 30's. If you take Simmons' lower estimate and add three years to his age, he would have hit 10 home runs at the age of 27, when a player is nearing the end of their ostensible physical prime. 

In Papi's defense he made a remarkably steady rise to being a power hitter, increasing his home run totals and slugging percentage every year from 2000 to his apex in 2006. The incredible (and somewhat suspicious) thing about Papi's carrer arc is that the biggest jump in home runs (+11) came when he went from the 12th best home run hitting park in 2002 (HHH Metrodome), to the 25th (Fenway), a layout that does not favor left handed hitters. 

Papi's late peak wounldn't be totally unprecedented. Raul Ibanez's highest home run total was 33 at age 34. However Ibanez didn't fall off a cliff like Papi. Despite hitting in Seattle, one of the very worst home run hitter's parks in the league, Ibanez continued with 21 and 23 HRs over the next two seasons and will almost certainly set another high water mark this year. Jason from IIATM,S can't help but wonder if something in up with him too. 

Every player ages, but not too many become totally useless in the matter of one season like Ortiz has, or goes on a sudden homer binge at age 37 like Ibanez. Unfortunantely for them, a significant portion of those who have these dramatic late career fluctuations are linked to steroid use, so the suspicions are going to swirl. 

Papenfreude

A Man Of The People, A Walker Of Walks: Kevin Youkilis

[Ed: Note: Reader(s), I'd like to introduce you to our newest contributor, Matt. Although if you've been around here for a little while, you probably already know him.]

With Jay away this week, he's asked me to contribute to the site to keep some content going. Either that or he's gotten tired of the paragraphs long comments I've been leaving as "mmb1980" and figured I should leave my thoughts as actual posts. So to make my official introduction to all you Fackers out there, I'd like to tell you a story about a brief encounter I had with this little blog's namesake last year.

I've always had a bit of a different outlook on the Yankees-Sox rivalry. I'm by no means a Sox fan, but growing up in Connecticut, I've spent my entire life on the front lines of the Rivalry. Several of my closest friends, and even some of my relatives, are fans of the Sox. I spent the better part of four years living right in the belly of the beast while I attended Boston College. So you might say that compared to your average Yankee fan, I'm a little more tolerant of the members of Red Sox Nation - except for guys named "Sully" or "Murph". They are invariably drunk, ignorant, and looking for a fight.

So with that in mind, a few Sox fan friends of mine planned a trip to Baltimore last May to see the O's host the Sox. They invited me to come along, and since I was already going to be in D.C. that week for a family function, I decided to take them up on their offer. The Saturday game was scheduled for 7 PM - the game where Manny would eventually hit his 500th fertility drug aided career HR - allowing us all to sleep off our hangovers from Friday night before heading out for a late breakfast. As we walked back to the hotel from breakfast, it began to rain a little bit.

We arrived back at the hotel and stood waiting for the elevator when who should we find standing there next to us but Boston's crome-domed, goateed first baseman, his infant child, and his baby-momma. They were standing with a security guard, to whom Mr. Youkilis was explaining that they were intending to go for a walk, but were now unsure if they should go on account of the rain.

Having just been outside and wanting to be a good samaritan, I piped up. "It's not raining too badly. I think it's going to pass." No response. I was summarily ignored, big leagued by a Big Leaguer. So much for trying to be helpful. As the elevator arrived, Youk spoke again to the security guard, saying something along the lines of "I don't think we're going to go".

So there you have it. Kevin Youkilis: walk enthusiast both on and off the field, lacking in social graces, and quite possibly hydrophobic.

Realizing that we were staying at the Sox hotel, my old college roomate and I promptly returned to the lobby bar to do some day time drinking and see who we could see. Several players came and went over the course of the afternoon: Beckett, Wakefield, Delcarmen, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Jerry Remy. We saw that the players really enjoy their Starbucks, frequenting the barista next to our bar. We saw that Varitek, despite getting paid 10 million dollars to hit .220 last year, is a lousy tipper. And we saw that Manny utilized distractions created by his teammates to sneak in and out of a side entrance without being bothered. The throngs of Sox fans applauded and crowded around each and every guy, but I was unimpressed, and spent my time wondering if there was a way I could Nancy Kerrigan one of them without getting caught.

So that was my first meeting with the Sox last year. Later on in the season I had a little run in with Alex Cora and the artist-formerly-known-as Big Papi. If I don't wear out my welcome here, maybe I'll tell you all about that one another time.