Prediction Round Up

There isn't a whole lot of variety in these, but I wanted to consolidate the predictions that we asked everyone to make at the end of the AL East interviews we did this week.

Here are the interviews with our fantastic guests:

Jonah Keri on the Rays

Daniel Moroz on the Orioles

Patrick Sullivan on the Red Sox

Drunk Jays Fans on the Blue Jays

And everyone's predictions in graphical from, including Matt's and mine:

There you have it folks. According to our panel of experts, there is a 100% chance that the Yankees win the AL East this season!

Actually, that's not what it means at all. You can't divine overall probabilities based on individual predictions (in this scenario at least). For instance, let's say that we are going to flip a coin that has a 60% chance of coming up heads and a 40% chance of landing on tails. Which one are you going to pick? Well everyone that's not a moron is going to pick heads. As a result, you'd end up with something like 95% of people choosing heads with the remainder of the superstitious dummies telling themselves that "tails never fails". And that doesn't reflect the actual probability of the event. It's the kind of thing that happens when you have some rational people looking at similar data.

Realistically, what this means is that the Yanks are in the neighborhood of 50-45-40%, the Sox are 35-30-25% and the Rays are 30-25-20%. Or something? I don't know but the midpoints sum to 100 and that sounds about right. Take it from me, I predicted the correct order that the AL East would finish in last year and had every team's total within 5 wins. (What's that you say? I also had the Mets playing the Cubs in the NLCS? Nevermind that.)

Anyway, that's it for today. We'll have some good stuff running over the weekend, so in the unlikely event that you need a break from the awesome weather that is forecasted for the northeast, we'll be there for you.

Run Differentials, Luck, And Correcting Statistical Improbabilities

Yesterday, Jay detailed some of the reasons why he wasn't too keen on the possibility of facing the Red Sox in the ALCS. I had reasons of my own for not wanting that match up. Aside from the way that the local and national media would beat the story into the ground, and the usual onslaught of rarely entertaining and often unintelligent anonymous comments we'd see here, I had a more rational concern about facing Boston.

Back in June, as the Yankees entered their third series of the season against the Sox at 0-5, we wrote a series of previews about how the Yankees were due for a win. The Yankees came up empty in that set as well, falling to 0-8 against Boston in 2009. While some of the aforementioned anonymous commenters took that as an opportunity to have some fun at our expense, I still took some solace in the fact that if the Yankees and Red Sox were truly evenly matched teams - as I thought they were - then the odds were in favor of them having a nice turnaround over the remainder of the season series.

Sure enough, over the next two months the Yankees finally put to rest the issues that intermittently beset them during the early portions of the season. When they met the Sox again in early August, we knew the Yanks were still due, and it started a 8-1 head-to-head run to finish the season series at 9-9, with 101 runs scored and 99 runs allowed. In short, the two teams were about as dead even as possible, meaning were they to meet again, probability would favor neither. It would be starting from square one, only this time it would be decided over a relatively short best of seven series rather than eighteen games. There wouldn't be enough opportunity this time for short term statistical improbabilities to correct themselves over the long term.

Yet probability doesn't always win out. In stark contrast to the universe evening out in the season series between the Yankees and Red Sox, is the absurdly good fortune that smiled upon the Yankees in their ten meetings with the Twins this year.

The Yankees and Twins began their season series in mid-May with a four game wraparound series. The Yankees had already amassed two of their fifteen regular season walkoff wins, but it was during this series that the walkoff win started to become a hallmark of the 2009 season. In the series opener, Brett Gardner delivered an inside-the-park home run, and Melky delivered his second walkoff hit of the season, giving the Yanks a one run win. On Saturday, in just his eighth game of the season and his second at the new Yankee Stadium, Alex Rodriguez delivered his second big home run of the season. This time it was an extra inning walkoff, giving the Yankees a two run victory and making A-Rod the first Yankee to get pied on the season. On Sunday, Johnny Damon delivered an extra inning walkoff HR of his own, the third straight Yankee walkoff in the series, for another one run victory. On Monday, I made my debut at Fack Youk in the morning, shot down to the Stadium for the game, and watched the Yankees squeak out another one run win, this time without the drama of a walkoff. Despite a run differential of just five, the Yankees had a four game sweep for themselves.

The two teams met again in the Metrodome following Fourth of July Weekend. The first game would be the most lopsided affair in the season series. Behind CC Sabathia, the Yankees won by eight runs, representing 50% of the final run differential for the season series. The second game was another one run victory, and then Yankees swept the season series with a two run victory in the season finale.

All told, the Yankees went 7-0 against the Twins, with 41 runs scored and 25 runs allowed. Using the more accurate 1.83 exponent, those numbers predict a pythagorean record of 5-2. Instead they went 7-0. The Yankees swept seven from the Twins in 2003 as well, but outscored them 49 to 13 that year, predicting a pythagorean record of approximately 6.4-0.6. That is, in the same amount of games the Yankees had about 1.4 more wins of luck this year compared to that year.

That luck against the Twins continued into the ALDS of course. Not just with Phil Cuzzi's blown call, or with the baserunning gaffes from Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto, but in the numbers as well. The Yankees swept the series with a nine run differential. With only a three game sample size the numbers aren't at all reliable, but they still indicate that the Yankees got about a half win worth of luck in the series.

On a more specific level, the Yankees entered the bottom of the ninth Friday with just a 10.5% win expectancy. They were facing the best closer in the league that doesn't answer to "Mo". And the ever-unclutch A-Rod managed to tie it up. In the top of the eleventh, they faced a bases loaded, no one out jam, giving the Twins a run expectancy of about 2.28 runs. Instead, despite a screaming line drive off the bat of Delmon Young, they came away with none, and the Yankees walked off one more time.

Ten games. Ten wins. Five of them by a single run, two more by just two runs. An average margin of victory of just 2.5 runs; 1.9 runs removing the eight run victory in July. Four walkoff wins, three of them consecutively, the final three in extra innings. The Twins led in seven of the games, scoring first each time. Yet they didn't amass a single, solitary victory.

As I pointed out yesterday, the Twins were a relatively weak playoff team. Luck or no luck, the 2009 Yankees should take a five game series from the 2009 Twins nine times out of ten. But the Twins are still a good team, and it's highly improbable that any team, even one as good as the Yankees, should take ten straight games from them by such slim margins. That said, I'm relieved that if and when the Twins luck against the Yanks levels out, it'll be happening in the 2010 regular season rather than the 2009 post-season.

Hey, Zero Out Of Seven Ain't Bad...

Okay, I'm sorry. I lied. It's pretty bad.

In and of themselves, the 2 2/3 innings of 4ER ball Chien Ming Wang threw last night weren't as bad at the 2 2/3 wherein A.J. Burnett gave up 5 runs the night before. Unfortunately for the Yankees though, baseball games don't occur in a vacuum and the latest in a series of slow motion trainwrecks for the formerly dominant sinkerballer could have far-reaching implications.

All signs pointed to the Yankees turning it around last night at Fenway. They were due. Going winless in their last six appearances against the Sox was fluky and it was about time they got on the board. After a marginal outing against Texas, Wang seemed poised to right the ship. Neither of those things happened.

CMW stumbled right out of the gate. He walked J.D. Drew and Youk back to back in the first inning setting up an RBI single by Jason Bay. What was probably worse than the fact that he allowed a run was that he faced seven batters and used up 29 pitches. For a pitcher that still wasn't fully stretched out, it was an ominous beginning.

Jorge Posada tied it with a solo shot in the top of the 2nd, but the Sox opened up their half of the inning by going single, double, double and driving in two more runs. Wang retired the next three batters in a row, but a 9 pitch battle with the Fackin' Youkstah helped drive his pitch count to 58 after only two innings. Wang gave up a homer to Mike Lowell to lead off the 3rd which most likely sealed his fate. He was pulled in favor of Phil Hughes despite having just struck out Nick Green for the second out of the third inning.

69 pitches, 39 strikes, 5 earned runs, six hits and three walks marked CMW's second best start of the year. It's truly hard to believe that this guy was once a dominant pitcher in the Major Leagues. It pains me to say this, but Kei Igawa almost certainly would have done better than Wang has so far given the same opportunities.

Last night might be the last chance Wang gets in the starting rotation for a while, but that question alone is worthy of another entire post. His probable replacement, Phil Hughes, wasn't perfect either, but was a lot better than Wang allowing two runs in 3 2/3 IP. Those two came in the fourth on a two run shot by Youk and put the Sox up 6-2.

The Yankees did manage to claw their way back in the game and make it interesting. Back to back homers by Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira against Ramon Ramirez in the 7th brought the Bombers within one, but Okajima and Papelbon stifled the rally in the 8th and 9th. Teix continued his hot hitting, picking up nearly half the Yankees' hits, and was the only Pinstriper with a plate appearance to not leave a man on base. The Yanks left 20 men on in total (2 for 15 w/RISP). They are .141 in those situations for the season series.

The Yanks are averaging 4.0 runs per game against Boston this year, which wouldn't be bad if the Sox weren't scoring 7.3.

It could be worse. The Yankees could be floundering with a marginal record despite having played like the Rays are. They are still only one game back on the Sox after dropping all seven head to head meetings this year. It's a pretty incredible feat in its own right. A win tomorrow brings it back to square one.

The lesson for tonight is that due don't do shit. The same goes for tomorrow night. Just as a streak of coin flips ending up as tails doesn't alter the probability of the next flip, the victories piling up on the Red Sox' side of the ledger don't change the fact that tomorrow night's game is still about a 50/50 proposition.

/checks pitching match up for tomorrow

Okay, make that 60/40 Yanks.

Seriously... tomorrow will be the night. It has to be, right?

Trash

I went to school for marketing, but it never ceases to amaze and amuse me how far they have attempted to stretch the Yankee brand at the New Stadium. It's a trash can. Do you really need to have your logo on it? After last night I'm glad they did however, because it neatly sums up the on field product. 

Heading up to the game last night, albeit a little late, I had high hopes. Mathematically, when you flip a coin and it lands on heads four times in a row, the probability of the 5th flip is still 50:50. However, as you are observing the coin tumble in mid-air, you get the feeling that tails is due to show. I had that same feeling last night heading up to the Stadium. They can't lose the first five games against the fackin' Sawx, can they?

They could, in fact. 

As he so often does, Alex Belth captured the feeling permiating these recent Yankees vs. Sox match-ups perfectly.  

These days when the Yankees play the Red Sox it feels like they are losing even when the score is tied, feels like they are trailing before the game has begun. A 6-0 lead in Boston a few weeks back was a mirage. The two teams have played five games and Boston has won all five. It’s not as if the Yankees have been getting blown out; they have been competitive, they have shown some fight, but it’s hard to ignore the basic fact that the Yankees are now the team chasing the Red Sox.

I don't think anyone is ready to accept that notion, but it's becoming harder and harder not to. To halve the season series, the Yanks would need to win 9 of their next 13 against the Sox. 

By the time we got off the subway, the Yanks were already down 4-0. The bright side is that, from our perspective, Joba was unhittable! He stuck out 12 of a possible 17 batters in 5 2/3 innings, sending the annoying P.C. Richard's whistle-jingle throughout the Stadium over and over again. (Sidenote: Is there a K counter in the new joint? I couldn't find it. Hope there is, because it provides important context. I didn't know how many K's Joba had until I got home.)

As you could probably tell from the iPhone posts last night, we didn't watch the game from Sec 429, where our $9 tickets from StubHub were located. Instead, we stood behind Section 122 in what was basically Row 31 (there are 30 actual rows). Unless you are there with kids or are physically unable to stand for the whole game, there is no good reason not to do this. It's easy to shimmy up to the railing, giving you the same view as people who paid hundreds of dollars for their seats. I don't think it takes away from the experience at all. The crowd noise reverberates around the concrete concourses making it louder than it would be elsewhere and the close quarters allow you to chat with other fans.

Johnny Damon's three run knock in the third brought the Yanks within one, but that was as close as they would get. The most exciting play of the game from our vantage point what when Melky Cabrera got busted by inches trying to stretch a double into a triple in the fourth. All the third base coaches in the Field Level concourse were yelling for him to go for third, so we couldn't really fault him for getting thrown out. 

The only significant rally the Yanks put together was in the 6th when Nick Swisher walked and a bad bounce resulting in a ground rule double kept Melky from tying the game. There was still only one out, but Beckett struck out Ramiro Pena swinging then got Jose Molina to ground out to diffuse the threat. 

Fairly late in the game, we were pretty starving and decided to check out the garlic fries. I've never been to a West Coast ballpark (never been to California, actually) so I can't compare and contrast, but I thought they were quite excellent. The garnishment reminded me of a typical escargot-style garlic butter with parsely and thyme. It was a pleasant surprise and I would recommend them to anyone not looking to make out with someone in the near future. 

Aside from the Joba strikeouts and the galic fries, the game was as unsatisfying as I was drunk, which is to say, "pretyt fukcing unnastisyfign". Which brings me to this...

::::Very Important Public Service Announcement::::

Attention drinkers on-the-go! Margaritas and paper cups do not mix. 

You might think that since a paper cup is capable of holding scalding hot liquid, such as coffee or tea, that it could also contain a delicious tequlia beverage. You would be wrong.

You can see the discoloration along the seam. I don't know if it was the Master of Mixes or the Montezuma, but the concoction ate right though the adhesive of the cups from Lenny's and sprung a leak of epic proportions. And this all happened within maybe five minutes. I was forced to pound the rest of it, lest I allow it to leak on the sidewalk in front of the Dakota.