Prediction Round Up

There isn't a whole lot of variety in these, but I wanted to consolidate the predictions that we asked everyone to make at the end of the AL East interviews we did this week.

Here are the interviews with our fantastic guests:

Jonah Keri on the Rays

Daniel Moroz on the Orioles

Patrick Sullivan on the Red Sox

Drunk Jays Fans on the Blue Jays

And everyone's predictions in graphical from, including Matt's and mine:

There you have it folks. According to our panel of experts, there is a 100% chance that the Yankees win the AL East this season!

Actually, that's not what it means at all. You can't divine overall probabilities based on individual predictions (in this scenario at least). For instance, let's say that we are going to flip a coin that has a 60% chance of coming up heads and a 40% chance of landing on tails. Which one are you going to pick? Well everyone that's not a moron is going to pick heads. As a result, you'd end up with something like 95% of people choosing heads with the remainder of the superstitious dummies telling themselves that "tails never fails". And that doesn't reflect the actual probability of the event. It's the kind of thing that happens when you have some rational people looking at similar data.

Realistically, what this means is that the Yanks are in the neighborhood of 50-45-40%, the Sox are 35-30-25% and the Rays are 30-25-20%. Or something? I don't know but the midpoints sum to 100 and that sounds about right. Take it from me, I predicted the correct order that the AL East would finish in last year and had every team's total within 5 wins. (What's that you say? I also had the Mets playing the Cubs in the NLCS? Nevermind that.)

Anyway, that's it for today. We'll have some good stuff running over the weekend, so in the unlikely event that you need a break from the awesome weather that is forecasted for the northeast, we'll be there for you.

Game 155: Guilty Until Proven Innocent

With the magic number for the Yankees to clinch the AL East and the one for the Red Sox to secure a playoff spot both sitting at 3, last night the Yanks took an important step towards preventing the Sox from sullying the visitor's clubhouse with celebratory champagne. With the Rangers' win last night, the Yankees can ensure that the Sox don't pop the bubbly at the New Stadium with two more victories and in the process, wrap up the division for themselves. The Yanks seem to be taking that apporach seriously, as they trot out the "A" line up again, including catching Jorge Posada in a (late) day game after a night game. [UPDATE 2:53 P.M.: According to LoHud, Posada has been scratched with a stiff neck. It's been bothering him since the Jesse Carlson incident nearly two weeks ago]

Unlike last night, the starter climbing the mound for the Red Sox is the one with something to prove. Daisuke Matsuzaka has managed to generate a lot of buzz during the two starts he's made since emerging from his exile in Fort Myers but objective observers still have some questions as to whether he's really "back and better than ever".

His first start was quite excellent but his last one against the Orioles was a lot closer to the old Dice-K: decent results but inefficient with his pitches. He threw 110 of them over 5 1/3 innings, allowing 8 hits and three runs. He walked away with the win, but the myth of the new and improved Matsuzaka took a bit of a hit down in Baltimore.

For whatever reason, Matsuzaka is being discussed as a "weapon" in the postseason, but CC Sabathia is considered more of a liability. CC is 8-0 in his last 10 starts dating back to the beginning of August and the Yankees have won every single one of those games. Over that time he has an ERA of 2.24 and struck out 77 while giving up just 55 hits and walking only 17. You'd think that that people might be making a bigger deal out of this. After all, he just signed a monster contract this offseason and plays for the best team in baseball.

However, just like Zack Greinke's terrible team makes it harder for his great season to be recognized, the fact the the Yankees have already pulled away from the pack means that Sabathia's great stretch gets largely swept under the rug because it doesn't appear to factor into the playoff race either. The problem with this logic is that if CC was pitching poorly, his team would be a whole lot closer to the pack.

Part of the equation is that Sabathia is as pure of a late-season pitcher as there is in the game. His career ERA in September and October regular season games is 2.67 and his next closest month is August at 3.14. His ERA in all other months is 4.01. Maybe writers feel like they've heard the story before. But more likely, it seems that they want to talk about his lack of success in the 5 starts he's made in the postseason. It seems he's a choker until proven clutch; guilty until proven innocent.

Look in my eyes dog, right in my pupils
If I'm your rival, why would I have to do you?
Press try to throw dirt on my name, disturbin' my game,
Seemed happy when they heard he was arraigned.

Don't Count Your Chickens...

Good morning Fackers. And a good morning it is. The Yanks have just completed their longest road trip of the year, 10 games and 11 days worth of a pretty unfriendly travel schedule, and they have a 7-3 record to show for it. Not a bad trip.

While we usually bemoan off days in these parts, I'm alright with this one. It was a long trip, and as it always is, the three game set with Boston was likely as physically draining for the players as it was emotionally draining for the fans. Despite having had an off day just last Thursday, I'm sure this one is welcomed and well-earned.

I have two rules of thumb that I follow as it pertains to baseball standings. First, I don't pay much attention to the them until about mid-June. This gives the season some time to develop so one can get an idea of who's for real, and who isn't. Second, I don't consider a team to be in trouble until there are fewer weeks left in the season than they are games back in the standings.

The regular season ends six weeks from yesterday. The Red Sox are now 7.5 games back in the AL East (seven in the loss column). Given the history between the two teams and given what we've seen occur in Flushing the last two years, I'm by no means ready to declare the AL East race over. But despite the overall run differential for the series being zero, the Yanks went in and took two of three, accomplishing what they wanted to. While this series wasn't an emphatic sweep like the September 8-10, 2000 series or the August 18-21, 2006 series or even the fabled Boston Massacre of Septmber 1978, it should be enough to ensure that the Red Sox spend September more concerned about the Rangers and Rays than the Yankees. Baseball Prospectus puts the Yankees' chances of winning the division at 95.73%.

That said, the Sox are still a formidable team, as their offensive outputs Friday and Saturday illustrated. So before we go kicking dirt on their grave, let's remember that the weekend series against them in late September may not be the last the Yankees see of them in 2009. Until then though, we can't be anything but happy about how the last two plus weeks have played out.

Soxenfreude

Heading into the home half of the 7th inning in Baltimore, the Red Sox sat atop a 10-1 lead. John Smoltz pitched only 4 innings due to a rain delay but held the Orioles to one run. The bullpen had kept them off the board in the two innings following Smoltz's early departure.

Then something happened. Something improbable and fantastic and impossibly satisfying all at the same time.

Justin Masterson, Hideki Okijima and Takashi Saito and thayuh fackin' awesome closah combined to allow 10 runs on 13 hits in two innings. The final two of those runs crossed the plate when the mighty Jonathan Papelbon came in to try and shut the O's down with one out in the 8th inning but allowed both of the runners he inherited to score. Those were the final the final straws in a contest the Sox led 10-1 but ended up losing 11-10.

Their loss, combined with the Yankees' victory, narrows the gap atop the AL East to 2.5 games, down from 5 one week ago.

Game 33: Rock Bottom (?)

For the 8th time in 12 series this year the Yankees have dropped the opening game. They are behind the 8 ball to the Jays and are two games under .500 the season. 

The Bombers have been unlucky this year, but not on the field. They have been outscored by 25 runs and their 15-17 record is actually slightly better than the 14-18 their run differential projects. Compare that to the 15-19 Rays, who have outscored their opponents by 13 and based on that, should be 18-16. 

Standings Based On Pythagorean Record

22-13 - Toronto

18-15 - Boston

18-16 - Tampa Bay

14-18 - Yankees

14-19 - Baltimore

Many of the players on the Yankees have been injured or thus far underperformed. There's a fundamental difference between playing well on the field on getting unlucky in regards to how your runs are distributed and not playing up to potential. Much of the Yankees' record was accrued with Alex Rodriguez out of the line-up, but they have few other excuses to justify their slow start, aside from simple under achievement. Jorge Posada has appeared in 23 of 32 games, a proportion that is only getting worse in the short term. Mark Teixeira has is batting .191 and has an OPS+ of 91. A.J. Burnett's ERA is north of 5.   

At this point in each of the last three seasons, the Yankees have been at or below .500, so we are probably a little too familar with trying to grapple with the thought I'm about to put forward. 

Have they hit rock bottom?

Last year the low point came after a 12-2 loss to Baltimore that put the Yanks at 20-25. They won 89 games and obviously didn't reach the postseason. In '07 the Yanks slipped all the way to 21-29 before righting the ship and finishing 73-39 and capturing the Wild Card. In 2005, they started 11-19, but then ripped off 10 straight wins en route to 95.

It's painful to watch your team flounder below .500, especially when they spend as much money this offseason as the Yankees did (not to mention what it cost to build the Stadium). It's easy to feel like we've been jipped so far and the team is due for a turnaround. It's tougher to accept the fact the team the Yankees have put on the field night in and night out is a lot closer to the Orioles then they are to the Blue Jays, Sox or even the Rays. 

Tonight, Andy Pettite starts for the Bombers against Scott Richmond. It's only Scott's 11th major league start, which has been a pretty bad sign for the Yankees so far this year, judging by ther results against Matt Palmer, Brett Anderson and Jeff Niemann. But perhaps the fact that the Yanks have four guys that should probably be in the minor leagues in their line-up (Ramiro Pena, Fancisco Cervelli, Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera) will work to their advantage.

Here's to hoping this is in fact Rock Bottom. 

But fuck it, if you know the rules to the game, play,
Cause when we die we know were all going the same way,
It's cool to be player, but it sucks to be the fan,
When all you need is bucks to be the man.

The Price is Wrong, Bitch!

I've enjoyed hearing every "expert" say that the Tampa Bay Rays are going to repeat as AL East and AL champions. Reason #1: The pitching will only improve because of the addition of young phenom David Price to the rotation.

Well, it turns out that young Mister Price will start his season in Durham along Nuke LaLoosh. The Rays management feels that this will allow them to more effectively limit his innings considering he pitched only 139 1/3 in 2008. I can't say that I disagree with this innings limit, but couldn't the Rays try something like the Yankees are doing with Joba, i.e. skipping his turn ever so often?

Rays vice president of baseball operation Andrew Friedman said Wednesday Price should be called up later in the season.

I expect this to be around June. Any time earlier than that and Price would become a "Super Two" player, meaning that he would become arbitration eligible at the end of his 2nd season in the Bigs rather than his 3rd as is typically the case. Despite the innings reason that the Rays gave, I believe that this "Super Two" prevention is the real reason for the move. The Rays are notorious cheapskates despite the new ownership group's assertion to the contrary. Just ask Delmon Young, whose withholding from Major League service in order to prevent "Super Two" status resulted in his stunted development.

A Note To The Rays: If you want to play with the Big Boys (i.e. the Yanks and Sawx), you are going to have to consistently put your best players on the Diamond.

Any Rays "fans" out there care to comment on the matter?

"Experts": Do you still think the Rays will beat out both the Yanks and the Sawx?

Would Someone Take This F____r Out Of The Division?

As first reported by Joel Sherman this morning, it appears that Kevin Millar is heading to the Blue Jays on a minor league deal. Sherman added that the Nationals, Rangers and Mets all considered signing him, along with the Yankees, on the strength of recommendations from Johnny Damon (understandable) and Alex Rodriguez (WTF?).

A-Rod, you have never played on the same team as Millar. Not even the same All-Star team (because Millar never made one). He was on the Red Sox, remember? The only thing you guys have in common is that you both like to dye your hair blonde. Perhaps you share a stylist?

In 110 games against the Yankees, Millar has a 120 OPS+, the highest against any AL team, save for the Tampa Bay Jesus Rays. Just last year, on May 27th, Millar went 3-6 with two home runs against the Yanks in an 11 inning showdown the Yanks ended up losing after Millar was intentionally walked to load the bases.

I hate Kevin Millar. I hate him a lot. From the "Cowboy Up" and "Idiots" bullshit, to his Slim Shady haircut and his stupid fucking goatee. I hate the fact that he came back and threw out the first pitch at Fenway for Game 7 of the ALCS in 2007, when he still played for the Orioles. If he was still on the Red Sox, I would have probably figured a way to name this blog after how much I hope he loses an arm in trash compactor.

Fack you Kevin Millah, you Bobcat Goldtwhait-looking motherfackah.

Pettitte To Return To Yankees!

The Yankees announced today that they signed Pettitte to a one-year deal. The AP says Pettitte is guaranteed $5.5MM and could reach $12MM with incentives.

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This is great news for Yankees fans. Despite his horrendous August and September, Pettitte is a proven veteran and brings leadership to the staff--especially for Bronx newcomers CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. I stated last week that I would go as high as $10MM. Anything else I would have told the Hendricks Brothers to go fack themselves. $5.5MM guaranteed is not bad for a 4th/5th Starter. The Yankees can say that their opening day payroll was less than last year's. If it ends up higher, that is no fault of their own as Pettitte has met his incentives. I would imagine that the incentives include reaching 200 Innings--which was Pettitte's only real asset last season. Others probably include All Star game appearance, Cy Young and bonuses for each win over 15. Kudos to Cashman and the Pettitte camp for getting it right.

If he signs, Pettitte would join a projected starting rotation featuring CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain. I will go to war with that rotation in the AL East.