Do The "Right" Thing

Mike Vaccaro has some, um, interesting suggestions as to what the Mets should do in the wake of the injury that Francisco Rodriguez "almost certainly" sustained when he assaulted the grandfather of his children last week:

So K-Rod is kaput for now, and now the Mets must prove they have the intestinal fortitude for more. If ever there was a situation that screamed for a baseball club to do the right thing, to send an unbending message, it is now.

First, they have to fight to void that portion of the contract that will coincide with his time away from the team. That means the rest of this year, at a minimum.

And then they have to rid themselves of the headache for good. If that means exiling Rodriguez in the offseason — a move that would almost certainly entail them having to eat most of his remaining deal — that’s fine. If that means going after the balance of the contract in what would be a precedent-setting move the commissioner’s office would probably rather them not fight — even better.

Obviously, the Mets are going to do what they can to void this year's portion of the contract, because I'm pretty sure that if Aaron Boone tearing his knee apart playing basketball negates his deal with the Yankees, injuries sustained while punching someone in the face (if they can prove that) would do the trick for K-Rod.

But is Vaccarro really suggesting that the Mets should eat Rodriguez's 2011 salary of $11.5M and a buyout of $3.5M in order to "do the right thing" and "send an unbending message"? What message would that be and who would it be directed towards, exactly? That would be a pretty damn expensive statement to make. It would be way cheaper to just take out a full page ad in every newspaper in New York.

The bottom line is that, in the world of guaranteed contracts, getting "fired" doesn't really mean anything, because you still get paid, so the intended message wouldn't even be reaching the person at the center of this whole embarrassing episode: K-Rod. The deal he signed with the Mets before the 2009 season was worth $37M. Although we are desensitized to those kinds of numbers because of the megadeals that other guys sign, that is still generational wealth.

If Rodriguez never gets another dime or playing baseball after this, he is still set for life. However, even if the Mets send the sort of bullshit "message" that Vaccaro is talking about, some other team is invariably going to give him a shot because he can get Major League hitters out. That's how sports work. It's not about morality, it's about winning (and the money).

Bud “Contract Year” Black Cashes In

In case you've been concerned in regards to the whereabout of the authors of this blog, fear not, we have not died in a boating accident or absconded the with considerable fortunes accrued from maintaining this site to search for traces of the last expedition of Colonel Percy Harrison Fawcett in the jungles of the Amazon.

However, Matt is at a conference for work and I have been tied up with some obligations of my own during the work week that have been keeping me away from the computer. And when the weekends roll around, both of us have been trying to enjoy our respective summers to the fullest, which leaves little time for writing things on the internet. We'll be back pretty soon, but the content is going to be a little sparse for the next couple of days.

Luckily, a long time commenter who would like to be identified simply as "Marmaduke Ramirez Washington" was kind enough to submit a guest post. It's not about the Yankees, but I think you'll still enjoy it. Take it away, 'Duke:

Following in the steps Vernon Wells, Kevin Brown and every other player that happened to have the best season of their life in their contract year, Bud Black received a 3 year extension to manage the San Diego Padres on Monday. After 2 years of leading his team to winning percentages of .389 and .463, Black has the Padres 17 games over .500 and in first place in the NL West.

Obviously he is putting a lot more effort into his managerial duties this year as opposed to the 2 previous seasons. The question is, “Why didn’t he try harder to make San Diego a winning franchise in 2008 and 2009?” Some baseball insiders think that Black saw a wide open free agent market for managers during the 2010 off-season prompting him to take his position as a manager much more seriously this year.

While not confirmed, rumors have been surfacing that Black took courses in “Advanced Statistics 101” and “Manage a Winning Sports Franchise on a Shoestring Budget 1a and 1b” at San Diego’s Mesa College during the winter. Other sources indicate that he attended a National League managers' convention during the offseason, which included a two day seminar on the double switch, because there’s obviously much more to it than checking who recently batted, moving the new pitcher to that spot in the order while inserting a new position player into the previous pitcher’s spot in the order.

One unemployed manager who wishes to remain anonymous is also questioning whether or not Black is taking performance enhancing drugs to gain an edge over other managers in the NL West. “How many 53 year old mangers have taken a team that has perpetually been in the bottom of the National League under his own watch and now, all of a sudden, they have the best record in the league? I’m telling you, that kind of improvement out of nowhere can only be the results of using copious amounts of PEDs - HGH, hGC, Adderall, Ritalin, whatever it is.”

He also added, “Have you seen the size of his head?” [Ed. note: The source may have been confusing Black with the previous Padres, and current Giants manager Bruce Bochy who reportedly wears a size 8 ¾ hat.]

Some people inside the game feel that Black has finally come into his own as a manager after years of limited success and is really stepping it up when the money is on the line. But is there more to his success than meets the eye?

2 Days Until Spring Training: Derek Jeter

At this time last year, Derek Jeter was in a vastly different spot than he is in today. During the final season at the Old Yankee Stadium, Jeter had put up his worst wOBA in a full season since he became a regular Major Leaguer in 1996. Scouts and defensive metrics alike had identified him as one of the worst defensive shortstops in the league and with his offensive production slipping dangerously close to league average, his overall value looked to be in sharp decline. Ramiro Pena was supposedly right on his heels to take over at short.

When a 34 year old player has a down year, regardless of how skilled they are, it's tough not to interpret that as a sign of an imminent decline. As the years of an athlete's career add up, it becomes increasingly unlikely that they will rebound from a sub par campaign; even a player as good as Jeter was up until that point has to see their skills erode eventually. Foretelling his impending demise was the obvious conclusion to come to, but luckily, what seems obvious isn't always right.

At a point in his career when player's defensive abilities are only supposed to deteriorate, Jeter posted his best and only significantly positive UZR rating since 2002, which is as far back as the data goes. It might have been the finest season as a fielder of his career. Partly due to an offseason conditioning program that was designed to increase his lateral range and partly because of Mick Kelleher's assistance with Jeter's positioning, the Captain enjoyed a late career defensive renaissance that is all but unheard of in baseball.

Joe Girardi's decision to bat Jeter lead-off coincided with a resurgent offensive year as well. Jeter increased his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage by 34, 44 and 57 points, respectively. He hit 18 home runs, his highest total in 5 years. Granted he hit 11 of those over the short porch in right field at the New Yankee Stadium, but we can't really hold that against him since he'll be playing the same amount of regular season games there in 2010 as he did in 2009.

If we learn any lesson from Jeter's rebound in 2009, it should be that trying to divine a player's career trajectory on a season by season basis as they age is a fool's errand. Jeter's status as a historical outlier makes predicting what the future holds even more unreliable. So just as 2008 didn't foreshadow an imminent demise, nor does 2009 promise a run at Pete Rose's record.

While it's true that few shortstops have ever maintained above average offensive production while playing shortstop in the mid-to-late 30's, it's also true that Jeter is fairly like to do so considering that he was historically elite at age 35. But at the same time, Jeter's closest comparable according to Baseball-Reference, Barry Larkin, had a bad year when he was 35, bounced back when he was 36 and was essentially washed up by age 37.

What happens this year will have tremendous implications on Jeter's impending contract negotiations as well. Tyler Kepner of the New York Times wondered if Jeter will aim for a contract that takes him through his age 42 season like the one the Yankees gave to Alex Rodriguez. Even if Jeter continues to produce at an excellent level, a six year deal seems ridiculous and unnecessary and it would be uncharacteristically petty and selfish of Jeter to make such demands.

If the Yankees are serious about having a budget going forward, they can't afford to commit huge amounts of money to Jeter over the long term, regardless of what they are paying Rodriguez. They should be more concerned with what other teams might be willing to give Jeter. Contracts signed in the past are sunk costs and although there are personalities and egos involved, the bottom line is that money spent on Jeter is money that can't be spent on talent to surround him.

Additionally, the market for aging free agents is changing and Brain Cashman seems well aware of that fact:

The industry the last two free agent markets seems to be going downward and the player's ages are going upward. It makes more sense to be patient. My attitude is if this is the place you want to be, you will make it happen. Johnny Damon professed his love for the Yankees, wanted to be here and was given every chance to be here. He's not here anymore and I don't feel that is the Yankees' fault. They have to reconcile why they are not here, not me.

The comment was aimed at Johnny Damon (and by extension, Scott Boras) but I think it tells you something about the tack he will take with Jeter. Cashman understands the free agent market as well as anyone and although the Yanks might give Jeter more than he's worth on the field, it won't be by much.

The media will surely take Jeter's side regardless of how much he wants from the Yankees but the reality is that he has the power to make the negotiations easy or make them difficult. Ask for 6 year deal and a raise in terms of annual value and it will get ugly. Take 3 years at $20M, the deal is done overnight and the Yanks have more money to use towards building a team that can win World Series, which has always been Jeter's singular focus. But let's not put the cart ahead of the horse. There will be plenty of time to watch this topic get senselessly beaten into the ground over the course of the season.

We've been incredibly lucky to watch Jeter's career unfold and we've been even luckier to watch him continue his excellent production into his mid-30's. Let's hope he goes the way of Honus Wagner or Luke Appling and plays shortstop into his 40's, but even if he doesn't, the Yanks have had their best stretch at the shortstop position in the history of the franchise and one of the very best in baseball. Although it will hurt terribly when Jeter is gone, the Yankees are essentially playing with house money at this point. With any luck, though, we'll be able to see this image a few more times before he goes.

Joel Sherman Uses Old Story To Drum Up New Drama

In Sherman's column in today's Post, he dusts off the story about Derek Jeter's belief that he was still a good defensive shortstop before he started special training to improve his range between the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Joel suggests that his "arrogance" as an athlete might lead to some contentious contract negotiations come November:

So Cashman took Jeter to dinner in Manhattan and told the Yankees captain that his side-to-side actions must improve. Jeter has an outsized athletic arrogance. He believes in himself completely, which allows him to deftly block out criticism and negativity. This trait enables him to thrive in the cauldron, but also prevents him from seeing personal shortcomings the way others perceive them. Still, to his credit, he agreed to try a new way.

With the Yankees paying the bills, Jeter enlisted Jason Riley, the director of performance at the Athletes Compound in Tampa. Riley formulated a plan to increase Jeter’s first-step quickness, particularly in fielding grounders to his left. Power lifting was diminished, agility — especially in the hips — was emphasized , weight was lost. The results came slowly at first in 2008 and in a wave last year when Jeter had one of his finest defensive seasons.

“The player Derek is, he took to it and said, ‘Watch, I will prove you wrong,’ ” Cashman said.

This story is instructive in anticipating how Jeter’s contract talks will play out when his 10-year, $189 million contract concludes after this season. First, like the Cashman-Jeter meeting remaining untold publicly until now, Jeter will demand that his negotiations are done privately. Second, the good news for the Yanks is that Jeter is a competent shortstop again; the bad news is he is a competent shortstop again.

If this story sounds familiar, that's because Ian O'Connor wrote about everything but the dinner meeting the day after the 2009 regular season ended. Does this dinner meeting tell us anything, as Sherman is trying to infer? How else was Cashman going to have this conversation with him? At the top of his lungs in the locker room? Whether it was in his office or at a restaurant, it was going to be a private and delicate discussion.

So this dinner anecdote leads Sherman to the following revelation: Derek Jeter would like to negotiate his contract in private. You know, unlike all the other baseball players who sit down and exchange numbers with their teams on live television.

Jeter's contract negotiations will be interesting and like Sherman says, made more difficult by the the shortstop's defensive renaissance. Both sides have a lot of leverage given that Jeter needs the Yankees just as much, if not more than they need him. But we already knew that Jeter's ego was going to make this difficult. I think the years of him refusing to acknowledge his deficiencies as a shortstop or change his position were a lot more informative than one dinner with Brian Cashman.

Debating the merits and estimating the size and length of Jeter's next deal are wholly futile at this point, despite the fact that this is a hotly debated topic and will be revisited ad naseum throughout the season.

How Jeter performs this year is going to go much further in shaping his next contract than any facts of the situation as they currently exist. If the Captain continues his excellent offensive production and is again solid at shortstop, the Yankees are going to be backing up the truck in a big way. If he struggles at the plate or in the field or God forbid, gets injured, the franchise isn't just going to give him a blank check.

Paradoxically, the better Jeter plays this year, the uglier the back end of his contract has the potential to look. Of course, we'd all "settle for" a great season and the resulting huge contract, but the best of both worlds scenario would be for Jeter to have a good but not great season and go back to being great in 2011. The first and foremost concern though, is Jeter's ability to stay productive in his later years, and unfortunately for the Yanks' checkbook, there is a direct relationship between the probability that he will continue to produce at an elite level and how much they are going to have to pay for the privilege of retaining his services.

Quotes From Damon And Pettitte

Last night, Johnny Damon and Andy Pettitte both appeared on the XM Radio show "October Nights" with Reggie Jackson and Bill Pidto. It was the last installment of a six part series airing on Mad Dog Radio and the hosts had some questions for both of the guys in regards to their plans for next season and beyond:

Jackson: “You’re a free agent. One of the things people don’t know much about is you’re close to 3000 hits. You’re about three years away…”

Damon: “Yeah, I believe I’m at 2425 now so it’s going to have to be three very good years or four pretty decent years so I have to try to keep going strong.”

Jackson: “Are you telling us that you’d like to play another three or four years?”

Damon: “Yeah, absolutely. I feel like with my body type, the fact that I’ve been able to play in at least 140 games over the past 14 seasons, I feel like I can keep it going. I’ll find a way to try to win at all costs. So, that being said, I’m going to take a little break now because the offseason just got here but I’m going to start working out sooner this offseason. It seems like when you start to mature in age a bit your workouts tend to start happening a lot sooner after the season. So I’m going to give myself ‘til probably December 1 and then I’m going to get going very hard. And hopefully by then I’ll know what lies in store for me and hopefully it’s back in pinstripes.”

Host, Bill Pidto: “So all things being equal, Johnny, you’d like to come back to the Yanks?”

Damon: “Why not? I mean, we just won a championship. That new stadium is incredible. The Steinbrenners have been the best owners in the game as long as I can remember. They want to win and they proved it last offseason. The Yankees, it’s amazing when you have the pinstripes on and you walk through the clubhouse and you see guys like Reggie Jackson walking around, you see Tino Martinez, you see Yogi Berra. These guys are life-long Yankees and they’ve been accepted into the family because of what they did and how they played the game. And they won in New York City. So, that being said, I’ve loved playing for New York these past four years. You know, if it works out that I do come back then that’d be great and if not, we’ll see where I restart my future at.”

=====

Pidto: “In recent years you’ve thought about retiring, taken a long time to make up your mind. I know it is really early, the season not even over a week, but what are you thinking about for 2010?”

Pettitte: “You know, really I just need to kinda just get down here and get away. If you immediately start thinking about it right now and you start counting the numbers and you’re looking at the calendar you’re saying, ‘Oh my gosh, it’s only 90 days to spring training. Are you kidding me?’ [...] I’m not trying to hold anybody up. I don’t want to hold anybody up. People can do what they want to do, you know? But I just want to make the right decisions for my family. I don’t want to leave my kids hanging and regret not seeing my kids do their stuff. They’re not able to be in New York with me no more, you know? I went the last month and a half, two months of the season not seeing my family at all except for the couple of times they flew up during the playoffs.”

Nothing earth-shattering, but the quotes are coming from the horses mouths as opposed to third parties trying to read the tea leaves. Pettitte's answers come as no surprise but Damon talking about playing for three or four more years might be an indication of the kind of contract he's looking for. Not a 4 year deal, realistically, but that would seem to take a single season contract out of the equation.

Will the Yankees guarantee him two years? Would any other team? He's been exceptionally durable and even if his defense slipped this year, his ability to his for power and run the bases remain intact. However, his home run power is largely a function of Yankee Stadium and his limited defense makes him best suited for the AL. It's clear that the Yanks and Damon are the best match for each other, it just remains to be seen if another team will make a serious play for him. So far, nobody has been seen kicking the tires.

Thanks as always to Andrew from XM for sending the transcriptions over.

Swisher v. Abreu

This morning, Matt did a great job debunking the myth of Bobby Abreu's resurgent season and magical contagious plate discipline out in Anaheim. I also want to chime in on Abreu's production this season, but in relation to his ostensible replacement - another cheap acquisition via trade for the Yankees - Nick Swisher.

Although Xavier Nady was slotted as the starting right fielder and Swisher was supposed to man first base at the time the Yankees declined to offer Abreu arbitration on his $16M 2008 contract, Nady was done for the season by April 14th and Swish ended up getting over 600 plate appearances for the Yanks. Abreu sounded a bit like a spurned lover when talking about the Yankees cutting him loose but the reality is that at the time $16M was far too much to offer a corner outfielder with limited range when the market are held players like Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell - even before taking into account the state of the baseball economy.

The decision made itself. The Angels waited out Abreu's attempts at a large, multi-year deal and got great value on highly productive hitter. Meanwhile, the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira and Swish ended up taking Abreu's place in right field of the New Yankee Stadium. They made essentially the same amount of money in 2009, so who got the better player?

Both guys love to work the count and put up solid OBPs, but that's pretty much where their similarities end. Let's take a look at the numbers (bold print represents an advantage):

A cursory look at the basic stats would give the nod to Abreu. His batting average is far higher than Swisher's and he batted in 14 21 more runs while stealing 30 bases.

However, while Abreu complied 41 more hits than Swisher, he actually had 14 fewer go for extra bases. The OBP advantage goes to Abreu, but more importantly, the slugging crown is Swish's by a wide margin. The home run totals are skewed by the New Yankee Stadium (although Swish only hit 8 at home), but not so much that Abreu would have hit twice as many there.

Abreu batted either second or third in the Angels' line up while Swisher was typically hitting somewhere between 6th and 8th for the Yankees, which explains the difference in RBIs. The 30 stolen bases at a 78% success rate do represent a major advantage for Abreu, but adding those 22 net total bases to Abreu's total isn't enough counteract Swisher's advantage in slugging percentage while subtracting the 8 times on base brings with OBPs closer together.

Usually, you would expect the guy who is a better base stealer to have the advantage in fielding as well, but that's not the case in this scenario. Swish didn't even attempt to steal a base all year long but still was better, or should I say "not as bad" as Abreu in right field.

Mainly on the strength of defense and power, Swisher had a higher value for the Yankees this year. Since Abreu hit all the plate appearance-based incentives in his contract this year, it means that Swish was the cheaper option by about $700,000 as well.

Both teams made out very well, but for different reasons. Swisher was cost controlled because of the deal he signed buying out his arbitration years and Abreu's contract was one of the most team-friendly in a historic buyer's market. The Yanks got an average fielding slugger while the Angels got a singles-raking base stealer. And with the teams meeting in the ALCS, I don't think there are too many regrets with how this scenario played out.

Damon Stayin'?

To be honest, I hated the fact that the Yankees signed Johnny Damon when it first happened. It didn't have much to do with the fact that he was 32 years old and was already declining pretty steeply as a defensive center fielder. It wasn't just that the Yanks passed on Carlos Beltran the year before, who, with respect to the five tools, was better than Damon in every way. I couldn't wrap my head around being forced to root for a play that I had spent so much time deeply despising.

There was his impossibly weak throwing arm that make me wonder if he was actually right handed but never figured it out. It was so easy to hate his faux-Jesusy look, the "Idiots" and "Cowboy Up" bullshit and the goofy speech impediment he used to talk about it all. Above all, the grand slam he hit off Javier Vasquez in the 2004 ALCS was far too painful for me to acknowledge the possibility of ever actively rooting for him at the time.

I certainly never thought I would be in favor of the Yankees offering him another contract at the end of this year. However, nearly four years later, Damon has been one of the most durable players on the Yankees and has continued to pull his weight offensively, even after being shifted to left field.

Tyler Kepner talked to Damon yesterday and Johnny had this to say about his impending free agency:

I don’t know where else I would want to go to. Obviously, that’s not the right thing to say when you’re about ready to approach free agency, but I’m very happy with playing in New York, and my family’s happy I play for New York. There’s no bigger place to go. If you play well here, you’re going to get paid. New York has the resources.

It's important to note that Scott Boras is still his agent and if Damon is anything like the other capitalist robots manufactured by the Boras Corporation, you can take that quote with a grain of salt. In fact, if Damon is anything like the 2005 version of himself, we probably shouldn't put too much stock in his stated intentions, either (h/t NoMaas):

There's no way I can go play for the Yankees, but I know they are going to come after me hard. It's definitely not the most important thing to go out there for the top dollar, which the Yankees are going to offer me. It's not what I need.

As with any contractual negotiation, I'd be in favor of bringing back Damon at the right price. UZR doesn't think too highly of his defense this year, but I'm not ready to relegate Damon solely to DH status. Just last year his UZR/150 was 11.6 and this year it's -9.6. Has he really fallen of that sharply? Even with his below average defensive, Johnny has been so good with the bat that he projects to be worth $14.8M over the course of the season, comfortably more than the $13M he's making.

Damon's already knocked 22 homers this year, just two off his career high. True, 15 of those have come at home and every one has been to right field, but that's not an inherently bad thing. If the Yanks sign him again next year he'll be playing half of his games in the same park.

With Hideki Matsui likely moving on after this season, the Yanks won't have someone plugging up the DH slot who can't play another position. The Yanks have stated that they want to keep that position open to be able to rest other position players, which keeps the line up flexible, but Damon is still a somewhat competent left fielder, even if he doesn't rebound next year. His bat more than makes up for his defensive short-comings.

From his comments in Kepner's story, it's safe to say that Damon will be looking for at least 2 years. Should the Yanks bring him back for 2 years/$20M? Would that be enough? Who is going to give him more than that? Given the way the New Stadium plays, it seems that he would be worth more to the Yanks than anyone else. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Cash & Co. cut ties with Damon, but if they keep him around, I wouldn't be surprised to see him lift another twenty-something homers over the short porch in right field next year, either.

Are The Mets The New Knicks?

[Here is a guest post I did for River Ave. Blues last week, and figured the off day would be a good time to re-post it here.]

The similarities go beyond just the blue and orange. Both teams are owned by father/son duos and have been plagued by recent failures despite having payrolls near or at the top of their respective sports. Each franchise has only two championships in their history and has made the playoffs exactly one out of the past eight seasons. They both have had their front offices' dirty laundry aired in the New York tabloids in recent years.

Not that Jose Reyes ever asked a Mets intern if she was going to "get in the truck" or Omar Minaya sexually harassed a fellow member of the front office, but there is a big distinction between having an unsuccessful franchise and having the details of why your organization is a disaster printed for the world to see. At the center of these two debacles are two executives who have/had close relationships with the owners of their teams but terrible ones with the media.

While serving as President of Basketball Operations for the Knicks, Isiah Thomas spoke with the placid monotone of someone who was heavily medicated, spouting off cliches and dropping wincers such as "To me, it’s win or die. And I literally mean death. I don’t mean walk away. I mean death. That’s how I approach it". Omar, on the other hand has a penchant for mixing metaphors, inaccurate tensing ("He has lobby myself") and verbal tics, you know what I'm saying?

Initially credited with making the Mets an attractive destination and recruiting players like Pedro Martinez, Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner, Omar's track record is tainted by severely overpaying for Luis Castillo, giving Moises Alou $15M for 414 plate appearances and locking up Oliver Perez, (who is currently humming along to the tune of a 7.42 ERA) for three years and $36M. The Johan Santana trade alone puts Minaya ahead of Thomas in terms of transactions that turned out favorably for their team, but the number of playoff appearances and dollars each team has spent speak for themselves.

Back on March 12th, 2007, with Knicks holding a record of 29-34 and sitting at 8th place in the Eastern Conference, James Dolan singed Isiah Thomas to a three year extension. Nine months earlier, Dolan had issued an ultimatum, saying the Knicks would have to make "evident progress" in order to Isiah to return as coach the following year.

The team had gone 23-59 under Larry Brown the year before, so they did improve, but the timing was curious. Dolan could have waited to see how the season turned out, but instead said "the improvement needs to be recognized now and not wait". The team responded with a horrid 4-14 stretch and finished 7 games out of the playoffs. Thirteen months later, Thomas was "reassigned" and banned from having any contact with the team, effectively ending his tenure as Knicks GM and coach.

Immediately following the conclusion of the 2008 season, the second one in a row which concluded by the Mets getting nudged out of October on the last day of the season after holding a significant lead with less than three weeks to go, Jeff Wilpon extended a three year contract extension to Omar Minaya. The timing again was questionable, as the GM had a full year left on his current deal, but Wilpon said "we think he deserves another chance to keep getting us to where we want to be".

The Mets are currently in 4th place in the NL East and behind 7 other teams in contention for the Wild Card, 5.5 games back. Unfortunately for Minaya, the on-the-field performance can be largely explained away by injuries, but the power structure of the Mets organization has come under fire as of late. First with the clumsy axing of Willie Randolph last year but most recently the zany antics of Tony Bernazard and the ensuing unsuccessful attempted public sacrifice of beat writer Adam Rubin's journalistic integrity, the team has become a punching bag for the New York Media. Rubin wondered aloud how he could continue his duties as a reporter covering theMets after the incident, but one has to question whether Omar can continue running them.

Even since they hired Donnie Walsh to head their basketball operations back in April of last year, the Knicks have had an air of credibility around them, even though their play on the floor was still sub-par. A well-respected veteran of the Pacers' front office, Walsh is candid with the media and his Wikipedia page doesn't have to have a separate section for "Controversy". Could the Mets benefit from a similar move?

It's quite unlikely that the Mets leapfrog 7 teams (or three in the NL East) and sneak into the playoffs this year. Since Minaya's new contract doesn't even start until the end of this season and won't end until 2012, keeping him around would be a prudent financial move. Rob Neyer doesn't think that will play a role in the decision, though.

Has Omar passed the point of no return?

I personally don't think so and don't feel certain that his successor would necessarily bring a new direction to the franchise, other than the symbolic overture of axing Minaya. That said, public perception and fan placation is a big part of being a successful sports team in New York, and theWilpon's have to be prepared to deal with a lot of backlash if they stand by their man.

Why Would J.P. Ricciardi Want Everyone Talking About Roy Halladay?

To draw some attention away from this, perhaps?

The Blue Jays have released B.J. Ryan, according to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. The 33-year-old lefty signed a five year $47MM deal with the Jays before the 2006 season that was, at the time, the largest deal ever for a reliever. The contract expires after 2010, but the Jays still owe Ryan about $15MM.

"Hey guys, talk about the best player on my team for a while as I try to sweep a disastrous free agent signing under the rug!"

At the time the Jays signed Ryan to that deal, it was the largest ever to be given to a relief pitcher. He was only 29 years old, but as Joe from RAB mentioned a little while ago, some of the more knowledgeable voices in baseball saw his elbow as a ticking time bomb. Joe goes into more detail about how the market for relievers played out that offseason, with Billy Wagner ending up with the Mets, Ryan signing with the Jays, Tom Gordon going to the Phillies, thereby leaving the Yanks with Kyle Farnsworth.

In 2006, the Jays got even more than they expected, and Ryan was the best of those four relievers by far. He appeared in 65 games (72.1 IP) with a 1.37 ERA (333 ERA+) and a 0.875 WHIP. He gave up only 3HR and while converting 38 saves. The following year, he pitched in 5 games before missing the rest of the season Tommy John surgery. He came back in '08 with a respectable campaign (58 innings, 2.95 ERA, 32 Saves) and appeared to be an effective reliever once again.

This year, however, he fell so far that the Blue Jays paid him $15M just to disappear, conceding any potential value they could get out of him this year or next. He walked 17 in 20 2/3 innings, had an ERA of 6.53 and threw just over 50% of his pitches for strikes. This doesn't appear to be guy who just needs a change of scenery; he might be done for good. By virtue of who he was, though, it's likely that a team will take a flier on Ryan.

Fangraphs estimates that the Jays have got $10.8M out of Ryan's 2006 season, only slightly more than 1/5th of his contract represented ($9.4M). Since then the Jays will have revieved only $1.4M worth of services over the last four years of that contract (including -$0.7M in 2007, -$2.2M this year and nothing in 2010) while paying $38.6M. Ouch.

Praise be to Mo.

Has Anyone Seen This Man?

When Damaso Marte was placed on the DL on May 3rd with left shoulder tendinitis/ inflammation, he had only pitched 5.1 innings in the first month of the season, allowed 14 baserunners and 9 earned runs.  Entering 2009, he was considered one of the Yankees best options for the 8th inning, but now he has faded into the oblivion of the disabled list. It's been over three weeks since he's been placed on the DL and the latest updates I could find were that he's started a throwing program (on level ground) but there is no timetable for his return.

Since coming to the Yankees as part of the Xavier Nady deal, Marte has not been good. At all. In 32 games in pinstripes (23.1 innings) his ERA stands at 7.60 and he has a WHIP of 1.521. Much was made of the one outing in Texas on August 4th last year where Joe Girardi left in him for 42 pitches, a total he had reached only one other time since April 20th, 2002. That's all well and good, but he had the entire offseason to recover and as documented above, was terrible to begin this year. 

Perhaps the Yankees are taking their time with Marte's return because he is less than two months into the 3 year/$12M contract they gave him this offseason. By the time the free agent market collapsed, it looked like a pretty bad deal. Now that he has been ineffective/totally absent for the first seven weeks of the season, it's starting to look worse.

Despite the epic suckitude Marte has displayed with the Yankees, he still has a career ERA of 3.43. He's 34 years old, so perhaps injuries are catching up to him and his best baseball is him. However, the Yankees could really use to stability at the back end of their bullpen and unfortunately, barring a trade, Marte still represents one of their best options.

The Quote Of The Day

...comes from Jason at It Is About The Money, Stupid, and coincidentally is about the money (stupid):

Maybe the Yanks have become a giant Ponzi scheme of their own. Bigger and bigger contracts and longer and longer commitments, all funded by a scheme of a shiny new ballpark with all the bells and whistles. But if the team slumps and that leads to attendance slumps, could we see some major changes due to solvency issues?

God, that is frightening. Unfortunately, it also makes a whole lot of sense. The same things that were seen as tremendous opportunities heading into Spring Training now seem like potential liabilities.

The New Stadium, which was supposed to create a thrust of new revenue, has large vacancies in the most expensive areas. The Yankees aren't divulging the extent to which tickets remain unsold, but the fact that they were advertising them during a Spring Training game is a terrible sign. The plan for the New Stadium was to keep the upper deck seats affordable by charging the corporations who were going to buy the luxury boxes and field level seats through the nose because of their lack of price sensitivity.

That dynamic no longer exists. Companies are pinching pennies everywhere you look, and to many of them, not having to fire an extra employee or two is worth not getting season tickets. What now? The Yankees can't lower the prices for the seats that remain unsold without royally pissing off those who have already paid full price.

There are on-the-field considerations as well. That one guy, the steroid user with 9 years on his contract and the bad hip. I was a lot more optimistic about his future about 40 days ago. As Jason points out in his post, Sabathia and Teixeira were both great acquisitions, but they were acquired at premium prices and are unlikely to look like bargains at any point in their deals. Five years of A.J. Burnett at $16.5M per... ditto.

Could the Yankees, once (and probably still) a blue chip stock, ever fall so far as to deal with solvency issues? Most of that depends on the on-field product. If they are winning, the New Stadium will be packed. However, if the Yanks are drifting lifelessly through August and September like they were last year, they are going to be a whole lot more empty seats this time around.

The Next $305M Deal

[Sorry for the lack of content today, but I was knee deep in a gigantic report that I worked on 'til 10 on Friday night, put it on few more hours on over the weekend, which was due today and still probably isn't going out until tomorrow morning. This piece was originally drafted on Friday, but I didn't even have a chance to touch it up and post it. We should be back to the regularly scheduled programming tomorrow.]

If this offseason is any indication of things to come, I wouldn't be all that surprised if A-Rod's deal is still the biggest in baseball history when he retires.

Like the values of homes across the country, we just assumed contracts in sports would keep getting larger. For my entire lifetime, when you made an investment in a home, it inevitably looked better five or ten years down the road.

When the Yankees signed Derek Jeter to his 10 year extension in 2001, they probably thought the market was catch up with the contract, which is probably why they didn't include any reverse escalator clauses for what were presumably going to be his decline years. The market hasn't collapsed around that deal (yet), but it certainly hasn't outpaced it.

Think about how much of a reversal of public opinion is going to be necessary to turn around the economy right now. I see numbers for a economic tracker we are doing at work and I can tell you that roughly 65% of people think the economy is worse than it was a month ago, and basically everyone else thinks it's staying the same.

Since the Dow Jones is really just a reflection of consumer confidence, it's not looking like this is turning around anytime soon. At least during the Great Depression they didn't have 8,000 forms of media constantly reminding everyone how fucked they were. We can throw as much money at this problem as we want, but things are going to get better until people think it's getting better, because perception is reality.

At what point are people going to start putting new money in the stock market and expecting to make money, like before? I'm a child of the 90's. That's where I did most of my growing up (from 6-16), and financially, it couldn't have come in a more prosperous time. On January 2nd, 1990 the Dow opened at 2,753 and on December 31st 1999, it closed at 11,453.

That means if you just invested in the DJIA for ten years, you could have more than quadrupled your money. Today, the Dow is sitting at 6,874, so if you had kept it in for the last nine years (or 9 months), you would have lost almost half of what you made. Infinite growth is unsustainable. The expectation of infinite growth leads to exaggerations (Enron) and shortcuts (sub-prime) which ripple out from their specific domains (the current Banking mess). I'm an even worse financier than I am a sports blogger, so please tell me where I'm off-base.

[Bill Maher hit on some of this on Real Time on Friday night, after I had already written this. My sister will vouch for me. Stop looking at my drafts on Blogger, Bill. You dick.]

And unfortunately that means it's going to trickle down to sports at some point. I'm not sporting Bill Simmons tin foil hat just yet, but if attendance starts dropping, how can it not affect the bottom line? There are only so many other expenses you can trim on a sports franchise. The player's salaries make up the vast majority of operating costs.

Most importantly, who is going to be the type of player to get a bigger deal than A-Rod? Not a pitcher, obviously. It would have to be an excellent defensive player with power at either CF, SS, or possibly 2B, 3B or C. Hanley Ramirez got his and he's not that great defensively. Evan Longoria is locked up through 2016 with club options. Albert Puljos is going to be "31" when his contract is up. It would probably have to be some young buck who's just a prospect now, and tears up the minors, makes it to the majors at age 18, like A-Rod did, and becomes a free agent at 25. Even then, a $252M deal, much less a $305M one, seems like quite the lofty goal.

Anyone up for a friendly wager?

[This is my last depressing A-Rod related post for a while. I promise.]

A-Lbatross

Pictured above is the Northern Royal Albatross. Adult birds can have a wingspan between nine and ten feet, the largest in the world behind only other types of Albatross. They are solitary birds, sometimes leaving their nests for months at a time to glide effortlessly upon ocean winds in search of squid and fish.

Nearly all of their entire population is confined to a few islands north of New Zeland called the Chathams. The species is threatened by climate change, non-native species, longline fishing and pollution. The Chathams have been hit by several cyclones over the past few decades, reducing the soil cover and destroying much of the vegetation on the islands. They are an endangered species, and with such a limited range they face an inevitable decline.

I can think of an athlete who seems like a Northern Royal A-Lbatross. Northern because of where he plays. Royal because of his contract (which might be an endangered species). I think you know who I am talking about.

He is a physical marvel himself and solitary in nature. When he is firing on all cylinders, he makes pounding home runs to the opposite field look pretty easy. He has been said to be confined to an island himself, especially in the clubhouse.

His reputation has been tarnished several media storms, namely steroid use, dating a wretched-looking, washed-up pop star, a predilection for muscly strippers and a knack for almost always saying and doing the exact wrong things. He's on the wrong side of his prime and and was just diagnosed with a serious injury, both of which seem to indicate an imminent decline.

Care to venture a guess?

Hurricane A-Rod

Lost in all of the finger pointing yesterday was the fact that the diagnosis of a torn hip labrum is a whole lot worse than a simple cyst. While it would have been bad to lose A-Rod for 10 weeks, a cyst seems more like a temporary anomaly than a long term health problem.

PeteAbe spoke with Dr. Robert Buly, a hip specialist who has worked in concert with Dr. Marc Philippon, who will ultimately be working on A-Rod. The information he got is less than encouraging:

Dr. Buly said it is “not unreasonable” to try rest and rehab. “But at some point you have to bite the bullet and have the surgery. It’s going to get progressively worse and for the patient, it’s pretty miserable,” he said.

A-Rod’s ability to play depends on the size of the tear and how quickly it gets larger. At some point, surgery will be needed. If it is only soft tissue, the recovery time is six to eight weeks. If bone must be repaired, it would take three to four months.

Brian Cashman indicated today that surgery would knock A-Rod out for four months, so it is likely he has some sort of bone deformity. This comes from wear and tear or some sort of anatomical abnormality.

No one wants to hear about wear and tear starting to pile up on a player with nine years left on his contract, much less an "anatomical abnormality". Do people develop anatomical abnormalities at age 32/33? Perhaps those who have taken HGH do.

The Saturday that the Selena Roberts story came out was pretty bad. I would argue the news yesterday was worse.

When the initial reports about A-Rod's condition came out, I assumed it was just another star player using an excuse to get out of the WBC. Not so much. Not too long ago, Yankees fans had every reason to be excited about the upcoming season. The New Stadium, two new front end starters (three if you could Joba beginning the year in the rotation), Mark Teixeira, Jorge Posada's return, Joe Girardi's new approach...

I think most Yankee fans were getting past the PED revelations and the ensuing sloppy mop-up job by A-Rod and his overly calculated PR firm. You knew it was going to add an annoying element to much of the season, but that's something you get used to. All the negative publicity swirling around him probably wasn't going to help him on the field, but you could make the case that since he got that big of a secret off his chest, he may have been poised for a big rebound in '09. That day, the milestone incentives in his contract were rendered worthless, but that's just money.

Yesterday makes this look pretty fucking stupid. You don't have to be a doctor to figure out a hip problem has the potential to be a long term issue. When I hear stuff like "bone deformity" in a joint as large as your hip, I get a little concerned. Neither Chase Utley nor Mike Lowell did particularly well trying to play through the condition. A-Rod could probably DH, but that spot was supposed to be divided between Jorge Posada and the odd man out(fielder). It's not going to be good for Posada to have to sit on the bench on the days he's not catching.

Already, it seems the Yankees have been robbed of a significant portion of the two seasons which were their best bet to get a good value on the contract in. They knew they were going to be paying full salaries for partial seasons, but I don't think they thought it would be this soon. It doesn't look like there's much of a chance he plays enough games this year to reach his usual counting stats. If someone told you he was going to play 125 games, would you take it? That's 13 fewer than last year and his absence was awfully noticeable. It would be the fewest since his age 20 season. I'd still sign up.

Injuries are the worst thing about sports. Whenever I play video games, I turn the injuries off. They are annoying and arbitrary. You never know when they are going to happen and aside from hiring the highest paid training staff, there is nothing you can do to prevent them. They seem unfair. They sabotage seasons. Watching Chein Ming Wang limp off the field and Joba grab his shoulder were two turning points last season. After the first one, I was pretty sure we were fucked, and after the second one, I was positive.

This of course isn't the end of the world. It's still extremely early to be up on the ledge. Joel Sherman exhaustively laid out the Yankees' options at 3rd, including this guy. Those reasons to look forward to the new mentioned above are season are still intact (although Joba topped out at 88mph yesterday). The rotation still looks pretty damn awesome. Teams have won with lesser offenses than the one the Yanks will trot out Opening Day, even if The Human Controversy isn't in the lineup. If Mark Teixeira is your best hitter, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Still, I can't help but think: It was all good just a week ago.

You Happy Now?

Nice work, Manny, you've accepted a deal that you just rejected under a week ago. Please step forward and claim the $5M you earned by forcing your way out of Boston. Hey, at least you got to shove around our anti-namesake in the process...

All it cost you was your hallowed place in the hearts of Red Sox Nation, your competitive integrity and your overall reputation! Isn't it rather heartwarming to see dubious move by a doobie-ous character go up in smoke? The economic environment certainly conspired against him, but karma can certainly be a bitch.

Rejoice, Yankee fans, because he officially will no longer be terrorizing the Yankees to the tune of .321/.411/.618 for 18 games a year. Good riddance Man-Ram, have fun in Cali. Joe Torre tells me the wheatgrass is amazing.

Only 3?

Tim from MLBTR put together a list of the 45 worst contracts in baseball. There are three Yankees listed:

• Jorge Posada, Four years, $52MM ($13MM per year). Signed November of 2007.
• Hideki Matsui, Four years, $52MM ($13MM per year). Signed November of 2005.
• Kei Igawa, Five years, $46MM ($9.2MM per year). Signed in December of '06, this was a clear and poorly thought-out response to Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka signing.

Should A-Rod be on there? If you are talking about deals the teams wish they could tear up, light on fire, and shoot the ashes into outer space, don't you think that would be right up there? Would any team want to take it off the Yankees hands for free? Name one.

In light of what has happened, he'd be looking at some paltry offers on the open market nowhere near what the Yankees paid him and those milestone incentives look pret-tay, pret-tay, pret-tay bad. The PED use makes you doubt the validity of his past performance to some extent too. Wait until the Selena Roberts' book comes out and see what else she has to say. She has already indicated that there will be information on his "non-steroid" drug use. It could get worse.

Posada's deal is already bad because in what was likely to be his most productive year of the four, the Yanks didn't get much out of him. Parts of 51 games and a 103 OPS+. His production (while on the field) was not terrible considering he's a catcher, but that doesn't account for the slacking defense caused by his shoulder injury. The Yankees can't afford to have too many games with Kevin Cash and Jose Molina behind the dish this year if they expect to return to glory.

It didn't seem like it to me, but Hideki Matsui has only played an average of 96 games over the past three years. When he has appeared, he's been above league average, but for a corner outfielder that's not all that remarkable. Still, I think a team would take Matsui's contract over A-Rod's in a heartbeat.

If Kei Igawa's contract was a method of birth control, it would be a coat hanger abortion. No objections there.

After shedding Jason Giambi and Carl Pavano contracts, the Yanks are heading in the right direction. The 00's will be remembered for the Yanks' exorbitant spending and in some cases, minimal returns, unless they go out with a bang this year. No pressure guys.

So Much For All Of That, Huh?

Former Cincinnatti Bengals wide reciever and object of Fack Youk's affection, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, has not signed with the Giants as we had hoped.

In what turned out to be a tougher decision than expected, wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh chose the Seattle Seahawks over the Minnesota Vikings and the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday afternoon.

Sources told ESPN's Michael Smith the deal was worth more than $40 million for five years, with more than $15 million guaranteed.

"I just felt it was the best destination, it was the best team, it was the best choice for me," Houshmandzadeh told ESPN.

Housh indicated that he'd like to play for the Giants, but after signing Chris Canty, Brandon Jacobs, Corey Webster and Rocky Bernard to relatively large deals, they just didn't have the cap space to add a contract like the one he got from the Seahawks.

With this, it seems like the search for a reciever, which is probably the one weak spot remaining for the G-Men, turns to the draft. They have the 29th pick overall and it looks like there will be some solid talent available in that slot (Percy Harvin?). If not, they have the Saints' 2nd and 5th round picks from the Shockey deal that could be used to trade up and snag someone like Jeremy Maclin whose stock has probably fallen slightly after his injury at the combine.

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Could be a little slow today. I'm going to be really busy with work and I'm a little behind elsewhere too...

Blown Away

First via the National Football Post and with more details from Ralph Vacchiano, Derrick Ward (Wind of the Giants trio "Earth, Wind and Fire") has a new home.

It comes as no surprise, of course, since the Giants were prepared to let Ward (nickname: Wind) leave as a free agent, unless he was willing to come back and play for a deeply discounted price. Instead, he found a windfall on the market, agreeing to a four-year, $17 million contract, according to several reports.

That deal reportedly includes $6 million guaranteed, and he’ll supposedly make $9.25 million over the first two years and $13 million over the first three. The entire package is worth an average of $4.25 million annually, which is more than many people thought he was going to make.

They still have Cadillac Williams and just last year the Bucs signed Earnest Graham to a four year $11.05M contract, so it looks like Ward won't have to do all the heavy lifting in Tampa either.

Graham is actually pretty similar to Ward. They are both 29 and bloomed late in their careers. Ward broke his leg and was placed on IR before game 9 of the 2007 season, while Graham was shelved in week 11 last year because of an ankle issue. The Giants plucked Ward off the Jets' practice squad while the Bucs got Graham off the Rams'. There was a really good article on Graham from a while back in ESPN The Magazine, if you have the time.

Ward's bread and butter on the Giants was catching screen passes and dump offs effortlessly and stretching them into more yards that you thought he should. He's not incredibly fast, but agile enough to work his way through congested areas. He had over 1,409 yards from scrimmage last year as part of Earth, Wind and Fire. That's pretty impressive and was a lot of fun to watch.

We knew Ward was leaving when he switched agents, and it does appear that (according to RV) that Drouche got Ward more money than most had anticipated. Still up for kneeing him in the balls for me anyway?

Good luck, Derrick. You seem like an all around good dude and that overtime game against Carolina in Week 16 where you ended up with 266 yards from scrimmage and owned the extra quarter, will live on in Giants lore.

Pettitte's New Contract Breakdown

I just thought I would throw down the particulars of Pettitte's new contract for those interested. This information was borrowed (stolen) from Cot's Baseball Contracts which is an awesome site. The whole site is basically a breakdown of pretty much every player's contract from every team, including minor league contracts.

1 year/$5.5M (2009)

• re-signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 1/26/09

• $4.5M in performance bonuses: $0.5M each for 150, 160, 170 IP; $0.75M each for 180, 190, 200, 210 IP

• $2M in roster bonuses: $0.1M for 120 days on active 25-man roster; $0.2M for 130 days; $0.25M each for 140, 150 days; $0.4M each for 160, 170, 180 days

Pettitte To Return To Yankees!

The Yankees announced today that they signed Pettitte to a one-year deal. The AP says Pettitte is guaranteed $5.5MM and could reach $12MM with incentives.

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This is great news for Yankees fans. Despite his horrendous August and September, Pettitte is a proven veteran and brings leadership to the staff--especially for Bronx newcomers CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. I stated last week that I would go as high as $10MM. Anything else I would have told the Hendricks Brothers to go fack themselves. $5.5MM guaranteed is not bad for a 4th/5th Starter. The Yankees can say that their opening day payroll was less than last year's. If it ends up higher, that is no fault of their own as Pettitte has met his incentives. I would imagine that the incentives include reaching 200 Innings--which was Pettitte's only real asset last season. Others probably include All Star game appearance, Cy Young and bonuses for each win over 15. Kudos to Cashman and the Pettitte camp for getting it right.

If he signs, Pettitte would join a projected starting rotation featuring CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain. I will go to war with that rotation in the AL East.