An Ode To Edwar

At 6' 3" and 150 lbs, sporting Rec Specs and a change-up that's really more like a screwball, Edwar Ramirez always seemed as if he were created by a video game. His lanky frame and his signature pitch are similarly farfetched. Joe Torre compared his physique to that of a thermometer when he first came up and his change has been referred to as a "Bugs Bunny" pitch because it looked like batters could swing at it and miss a few times before it got to the plate.

That change-up really is a thing of beauty, rolling out of his hand a little under 80mph, just about 10mph slower than his riding 2-seam fastball and floating down and in to right handed hitters. It's all but unhittable if the batter has to protect against a legitimate fastball, but the problem is that if they are paying attention, they really don't have to. He threw the change so much that it caused a bench-clearing brawl in Double-A. He had to pare that down to 37% when he got to the Majors, but it doesn't take much game theory to figure out that 1/3 of the time is too often to throw a sweeping, 79mph pitch whose real value is in it's deception.

Mistakes on off-speed pitches are particularly deadly. Unfortunately for Edwar and the Yanks, Major League scouts and players keyed in on his reliance on that pitch, which led to the inflated home run rates that ultimately made him expendable to the Yankees, hence the ejection from the 40 man to make room for Chan Ho Park.

Rob Neyer doesn't expect Edwar to pass through waivers and end up back in Scranton and even if he does, Joe From River Ave. Blues doesn't think that he'll make it back to the Bronx again. It would be great if no team claims him in the next 8 days and he finds a way to improve his fastball and/or slider and defies the odds. But if not, he'll still be one of those interesting and memorable minor characters in recent Yankee history.

The Angels signed Ramirez in 2001 and he racked up a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings of Rookie Ball. Granted, that was in the run-friendly Pioneer League, but it wasn't a very good start to his professional career. He made it to High-A next season but struggled once he got there and was released by the Halos. Out of a job and unwilling to give up on baseball, he kept working on his craft with a friend at a field near his home in Miami. That's where he first experimented with the grip for his signature change up.

It took him a while to harness it - the Angels cut him again after Spring Training in 2006 - but he eventually caught on with Pensacola Pelicans of the Central Independent League. After striking out 93 batters in 56 innings and compiling an ERA of 1.12, he moved up to the Edinburgh Coyotes of the United League in 2007. He struck out 46 more in 25 frames as their closer before the Yankees finally scooped him up.

His ascent through the Yanks system was similarly meteoric. He pitched only 86 1/3 innings and just 40 in AAA before getting called up to the Big Leagues. He stuck out over 15 batters per 9 innings during that time, had an ERA under 1.00 and won the MiLB Minor League Reliever of the Award in '07. He struck out the side in his Major League debut and whiffed 13 per 9 IP for the remainder of the season but was saddled with a 8.14 ERA primarily because he allowed 6 home runs in 31 innings.

He was actually pretty effective in 2008, throwing 55 innings of 3.90 ERA and cutting his HR and walk rates in half from the previous season. However, in 2009, he returned to '07 form, walking too many, giving up too many hits and too many long balls.

Edwar was essentially the inverse of Shelly Duncan. Edwar was the quiet, skinny guy with glasses while Shelley was the outgoing, powerfully-built ox. Both made their Major League debuts in '07 and were let go this offseason. Both were more or less one trick ponies, Edwar with the devastating change up and the gaudy strike out totals and Shelly with the huge, looping swing and home run power. While those are the best tricks you can perform as a pitcher and hitter respectively, when they were exposed to Major League competition, Edwar's tragic flaw was his HR rate and Duncan was victimized by the K. But both guys were the sort of indelible characters that will be remembered more vividly than their contributions on the field would warrant. Best of luck to you, Edwar.

Yanks Win A Chiller

On a cold and blustery night in the Bronx, where the temperature hovered in the low 40's and the wind whipped in from center field, no one could have been very comfortable. Some players donned hats with earflaps and thermal facemasks while fans watched in bundled up from the stands in knit caps, parkas and ponchos. It wasn't the type of night where balls are going to travel very far. With the team's respective aces on the mound, it had the markings of a pitcher's duel, but unfortunately for John Lackey, his defense didn't hold up their end of the bargain.

The Angel's fielding miscues started early on. Derek Jeter, who had made a living of swinging early in the count this year, uncharacteristically took the first 5 pitches against Lackey to lead off the home half of the 1st, ultimately working an 8 pitch at bat before knocking an opposite field single. Johnny Damon followed with one of his own - a broken bat flare to left - that allowed Jeter to advance to third base while Damon took second on an errant throw by Juan Rivera. Mark Teixiera popped out for an unproductive out but A-Rod knocked in Jeter with a sac fly to center.

With Damon still on second, Lackey busted Hideki Matsui in on the hands, getting him to pop the ball straight in the air towards third base, in between Chone Figgins and Eric Aybar. The ball hung in the air interminably and at some point they both lost track of it; looking at each other for a split second, before realizing that neither was looking at the ball.

It landed just in front of Aybar, allowing Damon to trot home easily on what was absurdly scored a single for Hideki Matsui. It might have been the highest single ever. John Lackey could not be reached for comment.

The Yanks left the bottom of the first with a 2-0 lead which proved to be enough for the man of the night, CC Sabathia. The Big Fellas' only hiccup came in the 4th inning when Vlad Guerrero absolutely ripped a ball to left-center and settled into his home run trot, only to see the ball bounce on the warning track. He ended up on second and was singled home with two outs by Kendry Morales two batters later.

The big man made a brilliant play in the 5th, fielding a well-placed bunt down the third baseline by Torii Hunter and firing to first. Teixeira made a great stab, falling off the base into a split but hanging onto the bag with his toe just long enough. Hunter thought he was safe and Mike Scioscia came out to argue, but replays (and the picture below) conclusively showed ball-in-glove and foot-on-bag.

The Yanks responded promptly. With men on first and second in the 5th, Hideki Matsui slapped a fastball from Lackey, splitting the left and center fielders before dying on the outfield grass just short of the warning track. Johnny Damon was ticketed for home already ticketed for home, but Juan Rivera slid towards the ball in a clumsy attempt to field it, which A-Rod picked up as he was passing second base. Alex put his head down rounding third and blew through a stop sign from Rob Thompson. The ball arrived before him and he collided hard with Halos' catcher Jeff Mathis, knee squaring up to jaw, bowling him over but failing to knock the ball loose. Replays showed that Mathis never applied the tag but it's a play would have been next to impossible for the ump to have called correctly.

In the 6th, Melky Cabrera reached on a walk, moved to second on another defensive mistake by the Angels, this one an errant pickoff throw by Lackey. Jeter followed with a sharp liner up the middle which should have produced a close play at the plate with Torii Hunter coming on. However, continuing the tragedy of errors, Hunter let the ball bounce over him, there was no throw and Jeter took second in the process.

Meanwhile, CC Sabathia had just settled into his groove. After giving up the run in the fourth, he allowed only one of the final 14 batters he faced to reach base; Kendry Morales with a walk in the 7th. That was only the second time Sabathia reached a 3 ball count all night and the first walk he issued this postseason.

As the cliche goes, the Angels did a lot to beat themselves in the field. But Sabathia did a lot to beat them on the mound, too, which the fans acknowledged at various points, chanting "C-C". Carsten Charles held them to four hits and one walk while striking out 7 in 8 innings The Yankees bullpen was warming at times, but Sabathia did not need to be relieved until the 9th.

Mariano Rivera issued a rare walk to Torii Hunter to begin the inning, but then recorded three straight outs including a swinging strikeout of Vlad Guerrero during which the once-deadly slugger looked like he was swinging underwater.

The Yanks took the 1-0 series lead, but a massive storm system looms east of NYC surrounding Game 2 of the series in a literal cloud of uncertainty. It could be a while before more baseball is played, but the wait won't seem as bad with a "W" under the belt.

Swisher v. Abreu

This morning, Matt did a great job debunking the myth of Bobby Abreu's resurgent season and magical contagious plate discipline out in Anaheim. I also want to chime in on Abreu's production this season, but in relation to his ostensible replacement - another cheap acquisition via trade for the Yankees - Nick Swisher.

Although Xavier Nady was slotted as the starting right fielder and Swisher was supposed to man first base at the time the Yankees declined to offer Abreu arbitration on his $16M 2008 contract, Nady was done for the season by April 14th and Swish ended up getting over 600 plate appearances for the Yanks. Abreu sounded a bit like a spurned lover when talking about the Yankees cutting him loose but the reality is that at the time $16M was far too much to offer a corner outfielder with limited range when the market are held players like Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell - even before taking into account the state of the baseball economy.

The decision made itself. The Angels waited out Abreu's attempts at a large, multi-year deal and got great value on highly productive hitter. Meanwhile, the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira and Swish ended up taking Abreu's place in right field of the New Yankee Stadium. They made essentially the same amount of money in 2009, so who got the better player?

Both guys love to work the count and put up solid OBPs, but that's pretty much where their similarities end. Let's take a look at the numbers (bold print represents an advantage):

A cursory look at the basic stats would give the nod to Abreu. His batting average is far higher than Swisher's and he batted in 14 21 more runs while stealing 30 bases.

However, while Abreu complied 41 more hits than Swisher, he actually had 14 fewer go for extra bases. The OBP advantage goes to Abreu, but more importantly, the slugging crown is Swish's by a wide margin. The home run totals are skewed by the New Yankee Stadium (although Swish only hit 8 at home), but not so much that Abreu would have hit twice as many there.

Abreu batted either second or third in the Angels' line up while Swisher was typically hitting somewhere between 6th and 8th for the Yankees, which explains the difference in RBIs. The 30 stolen bases at a 78% success rate do represent a major advantage for Abreu, but adding those 22 net total bases to Abreu's total isn't enough counteract Swisher's advantage in slugging percentage while subtracting the 8 times on base brings with OBPs closer together.

Usually, you would expect the guy who is a better base stealer to have the advantage in fielding as well, but that's not the case in this scenario. Swish didn't even attempt to steal a base all year long but still was better, or should I say "not as bad" as Abreu in right field.

Mainly on the strength of defense and power, Swisher had a higher value for the Yankees this year. Since Abreu hit all the plate appearance-based incentives in his contract this year, it means that Swish was the cheaper option by about $700,000 as well.

Both teams made out very well, but for different reasons. Swisher was cost controlled because of the deal he signed buying out his arbitration years and Abreu's contract was one of the most team-friendly in a historic buyer's market. The Yanks got an average fielding slugger while the Angels got a singles-raking base stealer. And with the teams meeting in the ALCS, I don't think there are too many regrets with how this scenario played out.

Escape From L.A.

Don LaFontaine (R.I.P.): After dropping the first game against Joe Saunders and the Los Angeles Angels of Whereverthefuck, the New York Yankees had their work cut out for them if they wanted to escape the City of Angels with a series win. It took every last ounce of their strength they could muster, and a little bit of good fortune, too...

Nine inning getaway games with a total of 5 runs scored don't usually last 3 hours and 37 mins. Then again, the two pitchers on the mound in L.A. today both tend to record strikeouts by the bucketful and toss more than their fair share of pitches. There was also a lot of pride at stake in this one, which also contributed to the Yanks vs. Red Sos type of pace. Joe Girardi did his part to slow the pace down by using 6 pitchers as well.

Both Scott Kazmir and A.J. Burnett brought the best stuff in the early going. Kazmir worked his way through three scoreless innings, dancing around a walk to Jerry Hairston, Jr. (who is scheduled for an MRI) in the first and erasing a single by Brett Gardner by getting Derek Jeter to ground into a double play in the third.

The Yanks finally got to Kazmir in the 4th, starting with a one out double by Mark Teixeira. Hideki Matsui worked a walk, bringing Shelley Duncan to the plate. The Forearm Basher turned out a fastball, lining it right just over Chone Figgins' head. It hit his glove, but glanced off into right field, trickling towards Juan Rivera. Since Teixeira thought the ball was going to be caught by Figgins, he had taken a step back towards second and didn't get a great jump on his way home. Rivera's throw was on the money and Teix slid feet first and Mike Napoli applied the tag. A better jump or a head first slide might have been enough to score, but the Yanks blew a good chance to pick up a run.

They still had runners on 2nd and 3rd for Robinson Cano, however. Robby's struggles with RISP have been well documented, but he laced a single to right, scoring both Matsui and Duncan to put the Yanks ahead 2-0. Melky Cabrera followed that with a double to the gap in left center driving in Cano for the 3rd run of the frame, all scoring with 2 outs. That hit snapped a 1-20 slide for Melky, dating back to their last game against the Angels 9 days ago. In the process, the Bombers drove Kazmir's pitch count up to 69. By the end of the fifth inning it was already at 92.

Burnett's dominance lasted a bit longer. Although he gave up at least one baserunner in each of the first four innings (3 hits and 2 walks), Burnett also struck out 8 during that span, including striking out the side in the 2nd and 4th.

In the fifth, the Angels got one across against Burnett. Napoli and Figgins began the frame with a single and a double, putting runners on second and third with no one out. Burnett struck out Eric Aybar for the second time in the game, temporarily stalling the assault. Bobby Abreu ripped a grounder but Cano snagged it and limited the damage to one run before Burnett for Torii Hunter to fly out to end the inning.

Burnett tallied his 10th and 11th strikeouts in the 6th but again allowed a single and a double, this time bringing the game to 3-2. After A.J. walked Mike Napoli, and with Chone Figgins who had recorded a hit in each of his three previous at bats on deck, Joe Girardi pulled him in favor of Damaso Marte. Burnett was visibly perturbed but Marte got Figgins to fly out to right, ending the inning and preserving Burnett's shot at picking up the win.

Marte came back out for the 7th, and started by giving up a single to Eric Aybar. He then got Bobby Abreu to ground into a 4-6-3 double play. With no one one base, Girardi called on Jonathan Albaladejo to face Torii Hunter. His mixing and matching finally backfired, as Hunter ripped a double to right. Girardi again tinkered by brining Phil Coke in to face Kendry Morales. Coke uncorked a wild pitch that allowed Hunter to move up to third but ultimately struck out Morales to escape trouble.

The parade of pitchers continued into the 8th inning, but the next to take the hill was a bit of a surprise. Ian Kennedy made his first appearance of the year after recovering from an aneurysm in his shoulder and pitching briefly in the playoffs for Scranton. IPK didn't look too hot. Ramiro Pena made a spectacular diving grab which saved an extra base hit while Kennedy also hit and walked a batter. But, he recovered with a strikeout and a fly out, then turned the ball over to Mariano Rivera.

Mo give up a flare to Abreu to begin the bottom of the 9th, which found some green area in short, left and center. But Mo being Mo, he struck out Hunter and Morales before getting Juan Rivera to line out to center. Case closed. Yanks won 3-2 and took the first series in Anaheim since the one that ended on May 20th, 2004. The magic number is down to 5 for now, as the Sox vs. Royals game will begin shortly.

The Yanks won two close games and got three pretty solid pitching performances out of their starters. As we mentioned coming into the series, there was going to be the temptation to make too much out of these three games one way or another. The last two games were good wins against a good team, on the road, in a relatively big spot. Taking two out of three against the A's while the Sox dropped two to the Royals was the best case scenario in the hopes for HFA. The Yanks get another day off tomorrow and can enjoy it after heading into it on a high note.

Yanks Win Thriller, Clinch Playoff Spot

Like they did on Monday night, the Yankees began the night by stranding multiple runners on base. This time they had loaded the bags, but Jorge Posada flew out to deep left to end the threat. As noted on the broadcast, the Yankees have left at least two runners on base in the first inning 27 times this season, which is the most in the Majors. Robinson Cano doubled to lead off the second, but the Yanks stranded him too.

Ervin Santana recorded four strikeouts (all swinging) in those first two innings, and in those at bats, 12 of the 18 pitches he threw were sliders. The breaking ball was a little wild though, as catcher Jeff Mathis repeatedly had to block balls in the dirt, including the one Jeter struck out on.

Santana got away from the slider in the third inning, giving up a single on a change up to Mark Teixeira and then a prodigious blast into the face rocks in straightaway center to A-Rod on a 3-0 fastball he left right in the middle of the plate. Hideki Matsui then reached on a catcher's interference, advanced to second on a wild pitch and watched from there as Jorge Posada was the first Yankee to finally conquer Santana's slider, lofting it sky-high, just over the tall wall in right field.

After striking out two times in his first two at bats Derek Jeter flared his 200th hit of the season into shallow right field to lead of the 4th inning. In the top of the 5th, Hideki Matsui got in on the tater party as well, launching a shot into the bleachers in right-center.

Meanwhile, Chad Gaudin worked his way through four scoreless innings against the Angels. A five run margin seemed comfortable at the time, but it started slipping away. In the bottom of the fifth, Chone Figgins jacked a solo homer to right. Then Vlad Guerrero singled in Macier Izturis with two outs.

An inning later, after Alfredo Aceves had replaced Gaudin and stopped the bleeding, the wound was re-opened. Five men reached base in the 6th via four singles and a bases loaded walk. Two men scored, but it could have been much worse were it not for A-Rod's diving stab and throw to get Vlad Guerrero for the third out.

Joe Girardi let Aceves face Torii Hunter in the 7th inning, brought in lefty Damaso Marte to get the switch hitting Kendry Morales around to his weaker side. When Marte served up a double, Joe promptly went back to the well for Phil Hughes, who induced two grounders and got out of the inning.

Hughes did not escape the 8th similarly unscathed, although by little fault of his own. Cano failed to field a hot shot from Howie Kendrick, and the play was scored an error. Then, Kendrick took off for second, Jorge Posada's throw escaped into centerfield and Kendrick was a third with no one out. Hughes got Figgins to pop out, but Izturis singled home the tying run in the next at bat. Bobby Abreu worked a work, but Hughes buckled down and struck out the heart of the Angels order, Hunter and Guerrero to keep the game tied.

Things were looking pretty grim for the Yanks, but the bats got off on the right foot in the 9th inning. Brett Gardner singled and stole second (although replays indicated he was out), Derek Jeter walked and all of a sudden they were back in business. Johnny Damon moved the runners over with a successful sac bunt and Darren Oliver walked Mark Teixeria, bringing A-Rod to the plate.

At this point, it was tough to feel too confident. A double play or a strikeout would have felt like a severe blow to the Yanks' chances, but A-Rod came through, ripping a line drive to centerfield that Brett Gardner just barely scored on. Had it been another runner on third, there's a good chance they would have been out.

The game was turned over to Mariano Rivera for the first time since his blown save in Seattle. Kendry Morales led off the inning with a walk and was replaced by pinch runner Reggie Willits. Juan Rivera came to the plate, and in between three pick off attempts, the intensity was built throughout the at bat. Maraino scattered cutters around but not in the strike zone and Juan fouled a couple of the closer ones off. It ended with a beautiful strike 'em, throw 'em out double play, changing the momentum entirely. Next up, Eric Aybar grounded out to end the game and the Yanks finally came away with one in the Big A.

They also clinched their playoff berth, although technically that had already happened when the Rangers lost to the A's earlier in the night. The Red Sox were shutdown by Zack Greinke, who allowed two hits and walked three over six scoreless innings at Fenway, lowering his ERA to an incredible 2.08. The magic number is now at 6, opening the possibility of clinching against the Red Sox this weekend.

For the moment, we can put aside the questions and soak this one up. Feels pretty good, doesn't it?

Hangin' Around

After yesterday's game, I found myself wondering why it feels like it's better when a starting pitcher gives up runs later in the game. Mathematically, it would seem that if you are going to give up 5 runs (4 earned) like CC Sabathia did yesterday, it wouldn't matter very much when they come. You always hear announcers say things like "he's keeping his team in the game", but it hadn't occured to me that there might be some statistical justification for this. 

For my case, I'm going to use the WPA (Win Percentage Added) charts from Fan Graphs that the guys from RAB like to use pretty often. Simply put, these charts estimate the likelihood, based on the score the sitatuion on the field and historical data, of which team is going to win. For further explanation, you can study up here. 

First, yesterday's Yankees game:

The Yanks were leading 1-0 from the bottom of the first to the top of the 6th inning. During that time, their WPA fluctuated between roughly 50-70% in their favor. (The Angels loaded the bases in the second inning with only one out, which explains the dip early on). As I mentioned in a previous post, reacting to something Lar from Wezen-ball wrote, you can't subscribe to the fallacy of the predetermined outcome. At any point, the offense could have helped CC out and threw up a few runs, tipping the WPA in their favor, and changing the whole equation. It's not like Sabathia was destined to give up 5 runs (one unearned). The longer a starter carries a solid performance into a game, the more likely he is to leave the mound having thrown a gem. 

Now let's take a look at yesterday's game between the Sox and Rays:

Boston jumped on Tampa bay starter Jeff Niemann early and were winning by 5 runs in the top of the 2nd. Look at the WPA as a result. During the time of the game when the Yanks were at 50-75%, the Sox hovered in the neighborhood of a 75-90% chance of winning. Granted, Tampa Bay mounted a bit of a rally in the 5th inning and brought the score to 6-5, but the point still stands. 

Keeping your team in the game: It actually does count for something. There's something to be said for Hangin' Around:

[God, that Album Cover is creepy. Why are you such a weirdo, Edgar Winter? I'm sorry, but that's the only version they had on YouTube and I don't have time to upload my own.]

Was yesterday's loss dissapointing? Yes. Has Sabathia lived up to expectations so far? No. Should I stop answering my own questons? Probably. It was a tight contest much of the way, with some great defensive plays by Ramiro Pena, Melky Cabrera and even the Big CCheese. Thanks to CC's strong first six innings, the Yanks had their chances to win, they just didn't capitalize.