Game 18 Recap

1. Scott Kazmir started off the second inning by throwing a fastball high and inside to Robinson Cano. It looked like it might have gotten away from him but Kazmir then plunked Cano square in the backside with an 89mph "heater" and walked right towards home plate after the pitch and it didn't look like he was delivering an apology. Jorge Posada made him pay for his aggression as he took the first pitch from Kazmir - a belt-high fastball right down the pike - into the forest of arborvitaes in centerfield to put the Yankees up 2-0.

Marcus Thames followed that with a double to left center. With Curtis Granderson at the plate, Francisco Cervelli on deck and still no one out, Joe Girardi called for a sacrifice bunt. Curtis laid down a very nice one up the first base line that Kazmir scooped to first and beat him out by a split second. Fransisco Cervelli drew a walk and brought up Derek Jeter who grounded into what was very nearly a double play but ended up as an RBI force out to extend the Yanks lead to 3-0.

2. Javier Vazquez struck out the side in the third inning but in between the second and third K's, he allowed bomb to his noted foe Bobby Abreu. Javy has now allowed 10 home runs to Abreu, four more than he's allowed to any other player.

3. The bottom of the fourth brought more offense for the Angels. Vazquez allowed a single to Kendry Morales and caught a piece of Juan Rivera's elbow guard to put runners on first and second with one out. Howie Kendrick poked a single through the left side, scoring Morales and cutting the Yanks lead to 3-2.

Next up, Brandon Wood hit a sharp line drive to left field that Marcus Thames got a terrible read on and allowed to drop. Two runs scored in the process and Wood was awarded a highly questionable double (it should been at worst a single given where it was hit). Macier Izturus then grounded out to second, driving in another run and giving the Angels a 5-3 lead. With Bobby Abreu due up, Girardi called for Boone Logan and Vazquez was done for the day. Abreu lined out sharply to Jeter to end the inning.

4. Robinson Cano got his own revenge for Kazmir's HBP by smashing a 1-1 slider for a home run deep to right field, bringing the score to 5-4.

5. Alfredo Aceves replaced Boone Logan with two outs in the fifth inning and came out to begin the 7th. After getting Izturus to line out to second, Girardi went to the bullpen for Damaso Marte to face Babe Ruth Bobby Abreu. Marte promptly walked Abreu and hit Torii Hunter with a pitch, bringing up Kendry Morales. For whatever reason, Marte and Cervelli begun the process of intentionally walking Morales despite the fact that right hander Juan Rivera was on deck. After some confusion and a mound visit by Cervelli, they resumed the at bat with Frankie squatting behind the plate, having given Morales a free ball for no good reason.

Also for no good reason, when the count was 1-0, Torii Hunter took off for third with two outs and would have ended with inning if Cervelli had made a better throw. Instead, he slid in under the tag and the at bat continued. That pitch was a ball and Marte threw another fastball low and outside to make the count 3-0. The YES cameras showed the Yankee dugout and Tony Pena and Girardi were signaling to Cervelli that Morales is prone to swing on 3-0, instructing him to convey the message to the pitcher. Despite the warning, Marte spotted a fastball down and away but Morales yanked it over the left field wall for a three run homer.

IFs, ANDs, & BUTs

• The decision to bunt in the second inning worked out fine, but you've gotta wonder what Girardi was thinking there. Granted, Granderson is not a great hitter against lefties, but having him bunt to get to Cervelli? I know he's a "hot" hitter, but is passing the buck to him to drive in that run really worth giving up an out for?
  
  
• Abreu has owned Vazquez throughout their careers but it's been even worse this year as Bobby is 4-5 off of Javy this year with a homer and a double.
  
  
• This is the second time Thames has screwed over Vazquez with his shitty defense. In his first start against the Rays, he let a double by Jason Bartlett fall in for what was probably the biggest hit of the game. Again, the "double" by Wood was a huge swing in momentum as it took the Angels from one down to one ahead.
  
  
• To be fair, Vazquez was his own worst enemy today and couldn't seem to get it right no matter what he did. When he got ahead in the count, he struggled to put hitters away and part of his undoing in the 4th inning was the fact that he was pitching from behind. He walked three, and aside from the third inning, didn't strike out anyone.
  
  
• The 8th inning was a complete clusterfuck. The decision to yank Aceves was questionable at best considering the right handed Hunter was behind Abreu and there was only one out so Marte was going to have face him anyway. The choice was between a right hander facing a batter from each side or a lefty doing the same and considering that Aceves had already got 5 outs without giving up a baserunner, it probably made more sense to stick with him.
  
  
• Maybe the false start on the intentional walk was the result of miscommunication but it's still absolutely inexcusable. Give a batter a free ball in a dangerous situation when the game is slipping away and you deserve what comes of the at bat.
  
  
• Probably because Marte made Girardi's decision look bad, he left him in to face Juan Rivera after the home run to Morales. David Robertson had already warmed up in the bullpen and was ready to go, but all of a sudden Girardi doesn't want to make a mid-inning pitching change?
  

This loss was pretty tough to stomach and there will be no shortage of negative pieces about Vazquez and the 8th inning tomorrow, especially because the Yankees aren't playing until Tuesday night in Baltimore. Hang in there. The Yanks still went 3-3 on this swing and the Red Sox lost in the 10th inning at home.

Double Triples

Good morning, Fackers. We're going to start off this Friday with some fun stuff we found by digging through Baseball-Reference's Play Index. Basically, we are going to go Jayson Stark on your asses for a moment.

Last night, Curtis Granderson notched the first and second triples of his young Yankee career, the first down the right field line off Scott Kazmir in the 4th inning and the second a deep fly to right center off of Brian Stokes in the following inning.

• Granderson led the league with 23 triples during his monster 2007. That year he became the 6th member of the 20-20-20 club, by collecting more than 20 doubles and 20 homers as well.
  
  
• Two triple games are nothing new to Granderson, as the one last night was the 5th of his career. He had two of them in 2007 (one against the Yankees) and two more in 2008. One of those '08 games was against the Rangers in August, and like last night, he did it in back to back ABs in consecutive innings. Unlike last night though, he drove in 4 runs in the process.
  
  
• The last Yankee to have two triples in one game was current Angel Bobby Abreu in 2008, but that happened in the Metro Dome. The last Yankee to do it at home was Enrique Wilson back in 2002 against the Indians.
  
  
• Twenty years and two days before Wilson did it, Ken Griffey Sr. pulled off the same feat against the Brewers at the Stadium. Like Granderson, Griffey did it in consecutive at bats (his 1st & 2nd) in back to back innings (the 1st and 2nd) off of two different pitchers (Moose Haas & Jerry Augustine).
  
  
• The only Yankees ever to collect three three-baggers in one game were Joe DiMaggio back in 1938 (who somehow only scored one run in that game) and Earle Combs in 1928. The Yanks happened to win both of those games by a score of 8-7. Furthermore, they blew one run leads in the top of the ninth inning in both of them and came back to walk off with the win in the bottom half.
  
  
• There were at least 32 multiple triple games by Yankee batters in the pre-renovation years of Yankee Stadium and likely more because the Play Index isn't totally complete. Conversely, there were only 4 from 1973 to 2008.
  
  
• Now there is one in the first 84 regular season games in the new joint, a park which suppresses extra-base hits that aren't home runs.
  
  
• On Wednesday night Nick Swisher had a triple as well, giving the Yanks 3 of them in 2 games, something that hasn't happened since 2007. Before that though, you have to go back to 1998, when the Yanks hit four triples in the same night against the Rangers in Arlington (two by Bernie Williams and one each by Derek Jeter and Tim Raines). That game was a 15-13 battle during which the Yanks and Rangers each had a 7 run inning.

They say triples are the most exciting play in baseball and I can't argue with that. Granderson is going to have a tough time legging out too many of them in Yankee Stadium but if he can pick up 10 of them, he'd be the first Yankee to do it since Jerry Mumphrey in 1982. Keep chuggin', Curtis.

Game 8 Recap

1. The Angels struck first in this one, stringing together three straight hits to start the third inning. First, Brandon Wood pulled one through the left side of the infield and then stole second. Eric Aybar followed with a base hit to center, bringing up Bobby Abreu. El Como Dulce only has a .358 OBP against Javier Vazquez, but 15 of the 20 hits he's collected against him have gone for extra bases, 9 of those home runs. That trend continued as Abreu pulled a double to the gap in right center putting the Angels ahead 2-0.

2. It took the Yankees until the 5th inning to get on the board against Joel Pineiro. Robinson Cano led off the inning with a single, advanced to second on a dribbler by Jorge Posada and ended up at third after another ground ball off the bat of Curtis Granderson. With two outs and Cano 90 feet away, Nick Swisher mashed a triple that rolled all the way to the wall in left center to make it Angels 2 - Yankees 1.

3. The sixth inning would be the end for Javy Vazquez and it began with a leadoff double to Torii Hunter. Vazquez initially had Hunter 0-2 but let the count slide to 3-2 before giving up the line drive to center. Kendry Morales added a two bagger of his own on Javy's 100th pitch, predictably summoning a chorus of boos and bringing Joe Girardi out of the dugout. Joe G. called on Alfredo Aceves. Alf allowed the inherited runner to score and and gave up a run of his own in the 7th on an RBI single by Hunter, putting the Angels ahead 5-1.

4. After Joba Chamberlain pitched a scoreless frame in the top of the 8th, the Yanks mounted a rally in the bottom half of the inning. Scott Shields relieved Pineiro and promptly walked Brett Gardner. Derek Jeter and Nick Johnson then added back to back singles, narrowing the gap to 3 runs with men on the corners and no one out. The Yanks WPA was at 25% when hard-throwing right hander Kevin Jepsen was summoned from the bullpen to face Mark Teixeira.

5. Teix came to the plate hitlesss in the game and left it that way, but did drive in a run with a ground out to third. A-Rod worked a one out walk, bringing up Robinson Cano. Robby smoked a ball directly at Brandon Wood. The Angels tried to get two and the throw appeared to beat Robinson Cano to first base but he was ruled safe. Jorge Posada then struck out swinging to ending the threat. The Yanks were trailing 5-3 after the inning, and that would prove to be the final score.

IFs, ANDs & BUTs

• Vazquez got off to a shaky start, getting a mound visit from Dave Eiland after allowing a single to Abreu and a walk to Hunter in the first inning. It appeared that Eiland saw something mechanical (his shoulder flying open, perhaps) and the visit was effective, as Javy retired the next two batters to close out the frame.
  
  
• Eiland made another mound visit in the third inning, but that one clearly didn't work out as well.
  
  
• Joel Pineiro was nothing short of impressive today. He pitched 7 innings, allowed five hits, one run and struck out 7 while walking none. He induced twice as many grounders as fly balls and allowed just one line drive - a single to left by Jorge Posada. His sinker had significant movement and he threw just under 2/3 of his pitches for strikes.
  
  
• Brandon Wood displayed considerable range at third base, making two nice plays on high popups against the tarp in foul territory.
  
  
• Hideki Matsui had a rough day at the plate, going 0-4 with 3 Ks and amassing the lowest WPA on the Angels outside of Scott Sheilds.
  
  
• The only Yankees to get on base more than once were Cano and Jeter - each with two hits.
  
  
• Nick Johnson's single in the 8th was the result of a 9 pitch at bat, and came after 5 straight foul balls. Johnson also advanced to second on a wild pitch by Jensen, putting both runners in scoring position for Teix, but didn't manage to make it home.
  
  
• Mark Teixeira's slow start rolls on. He is now 3 for 38 with 7 walks.
  
  
• Michael Kay called Fernando Rodney "automatic" before he came in to pitch the 9th inning, which I found rather amusing, but Rodney needed just 9 pitches to sit the Yanks down.

The series finale is tomorrow night at 7:05.

Morning Linkaround

Good morning, Fackers. Here are some items of interest while we wait for the all-important World Series rematch at 1:00.

I don't care if they're both from the northeastern part of Cincinnati, I don't like the fact that Paul O'Neill is giving Kevin Youkilis advice. However, the suggestion was for Youk not to start hitting until February 1st, so if he gets off to a cold start this season, maybe we owe Paulie one.

Our favorite lawyer-turned-blogger uses some of his legal expertise to talk about Governor Paterson's illegal acceptance of free World Series tickets from the Yankees. You can find a more in-depth conversation if you scroll through this thread as well.

Bobby Abreu finally sold his Condo on East 58th Street for $5.1M. El Como Dulce and his agent were initially reluctant to take a loss on the property, but the market for apartments in New York City that covered limited square footage in buildings over 35 years old had been on the decline.

Cliff Corcoran at Bronx Banter writes about a topic that we're all pretty sick of, but somehow finds a way to make it interesting. That's the mark of a good analyst who is also a good writer, folks.

Over at River Ave. Blues, Daniel R. Levitt authored a guest post about how the economics of the Great Depression changed baseball and gave the Yankees a competitive advantage. Before the late 1920's, a Major League team could only control players on their 40 man rosters, meaning their Major League 25 man and 15 minor leaguers. But Minor Leauge teams, hurting for capital, asked the Big League clubs for help. In return, the MLB teams demanded greater control of the players. Additionally, unlike the Steinbrenners now, Col. Jacob Ruppert had his brewing business to fall back on and the repeal of Prohibition gave him a steady stream of income that most other owners didn't have.

NoMaas interviewed Brett Gardner. Topics include Gardner's thumb, the departure of Melky Cabrera, bunting, his contact rate, sweet tea and stealing first base.

Chad Jennings continued his "5 Questions" series with hero of yesterdays game, Colin Curtis.

Marc Carig asked Bernie Williams how much he thinks about the Hall of Fame and the fact that other people around the league were using steroids when Bernie was ostensibly clean.

Joe Posnanski + FanGraphs = Really Interesting Stuff

Dave Cameron compared Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixiera and found that they are pretty similar players. However, Cameron also adds that A-Gone probably shouldn't hold his breath for 8 year and $180M with the Yankees out of the bidding.

Orel Hershiser is taking the place of Steve Phillips in the Sunday Night Baseball booth. Thank you, Brooke Hundley!

Tyler Kepner caught up with the one guy who didn't give Joe Mauer his first place vote for MVP. Keizo Konishi says that he voted for Miguel Cabrera because:

"If I took Cabrera out of the Tigers’ lineup, I thought it would be a very different team. If I did the same thing for the Twins, if I picked Mauer out of their lineup, they would still have a better lineup compared to the Tigers".

He also cited the fact that Cabrera's team went further into the World Baseball Classic (not a joke).

And finally, can you guess where this quote come from?

Poor Kevin Kernan. His suggestion here brought cause for some of the usual FJM Wannabes in the Yankees blogosphere to emerge from their ivory towers – constructed out of their alleged righteousness – gunning for him with torches and pitchforks.

Oh yes, poor Kevin Kernan. Can't a newspaper guy just mail in a hacky column without someone calling him out for it anymore? What happened to the good old days when sports writers didn't have to use fancy things like "numbers" or "logic" and you could just spout off racial stereotypes without consequence?

The Return Of Nick The Stick

Good morning, Fackers. It appears as though the Yankees are close to signing Nick Johnson to a one year, $5.5M deal. Johnson can play exactly one position, first base, and since Mark Teixeira is as much of an everyday player as there is on the team, it looks like Johnson - health permitting - will be a more or less full time designated hitter. Apparently the Yanks weren't so intent on rotating the DH slot to their aging players after all.

With a career OBP of .402 (.426 over the last three years), Johnson is a powerful offensive asset who sees lots of pitches, has excellent strike zone discipline and hits left handed pitching well (.440 OBP against LHP last year) despite being left handed himself. Sticking a guy like that in the 2 hole - in front of Teixeira and A-Rod - is going to lead to a significant increase in RBI opportunities for those two. Nick the Stick's power has declined over the past three seasons (SLG .520, .431, .402), but it would be reasonable to assume that Yankee Stadium would help in that capacity.

The most obvious knock on Johnson is that he's injury prone, suffering ailments ranging from stress fractures in his hand to a fractured cheek bone to a broken femur to back problems to torn ligaments in his wrist. As a result, he has appeared in an average of only 93 games over the past 8 years (including the 2007 season, which he missed entirely). Conventional wisdom says that stashing him away at DH would help prevent injuries, but that's far from a guarantee.

It would have been nice to bring Johnny Damon back but that seems very unlikely if the deal for Johnson goes through. He was asking the Yankees for twice as much money as Johnson over a contract three times as long. Sure, the fact that Damon is able to play the outfield would have increased the flexibility of the roster, but if other players really need a day off, there isn't a good reason that Joe Girardi can't just give Johnson a rest.

As far as Hideki Matsui goes, I think Johnson is a better fit for the Yankees offense. Granted, they both provide next to nothing defensively, but at the plate, they are very similar. Johnson has a career wOBA of .371 and was at .373 last year. Those numbers for Matsui are .367 and .378, respectively. However, Matsui's numbers are predicated on power (which is volatile) while Johnson relies on the more stable on OBP.

I'd rather have someone with a gaudy OBP who A-Rod and Teix will continually have the opportunity to drive in than another, lesser power hitter behind them. Both Matsui and Johnson are injury prone, but the former suffers from chronic knee injuries that are only getting worse while Johnson seems to have been afflicted with more random and flukey ailments.

For what it's worth, Johnson was $1M cheaper than Matsui and it might have been more. As Brian Cashman noted in reference to Bobby Abreu, a player is less likely to take a pay cut from their former employer than from another team.

I don't want to hear about the money that Matsui makes for the organization over in Japan, because that's the team's problem, not the fans'. Who cares how popular the Yankees on the opposite side of the world? We don't benefit from the money they make over there. The fact that Matsui has performed well in the postseason is great, but there's no guarantee that he'll repeat that performance next time around.

Overall, I like this move for the Yankees. It carries limited risk and if Johnson can grind out his usual production for 500 or so plate appearances, he will be a tremendous asset to the line up.

Yanks And Damon Worlds Apart

Depending upon which you reports you believe, the Yankees may or may not have begun negotiating with Johnny Damon late last week. Various reports state that the two sides are worlds apart, with the Yankees offering 2 years and $18M and Damon requesting 4 years and $52M. Putting aside for a second the sheer lunacy of a 36 year old with questionable defensive skills and perhaps park-inflated value wanting a four year deal with an average annual value of $13M in a depressed market, I'm fairly confident the reported offers are accurate. Damon is a Scott Boras client, and since those figures came from notorious Boras mouthpiece Jon Heyman, I believe they are the actual figures being discussed.

We can infer a few things from this. Since it's all part of the negotiating process, I'd assume both sides would be happy offering/accepting more/less than what's currently on the table. If that's the case, we know the Yankees are willing to guarantee a second year and to do so at a market rate contract similar to what Bobby Abreu received from the Angels. We also know that Damon and Boras aren't ready to cave - at least not yet - in light of the Yankees recent outfield acquisitions of Curtis Granderson and Jaime Hoffmann. I'd imagine that they'll try to hold out until Matt Holliday and Jason Bay sign, further defining the outfield market. I just don't know if the Yankees will be willing to wait that long.

Meanwhile, according to a Ken Davidoff tweet on Thursday, there is increasing sentiment that the Yankees will wind up re-signing Hideki Matsui. While the Yankees still have room for both Damon and Matsui, it's more likely that only one or the other will be back next year. The Yankees likely prefer Damon since he can split time between DH and the outfield, but if he and Boras continue to drag their feet in negotiations, the club may turn back to Matsui, who hasn't been seriously rumored to be going anywhere else.

I'm sure this will be one of the predominant Yankee story lines as we move through the next few weeks of the off-season.

You'll Get Nothing And Like It

With a hat tip to RAB, Joel Sherman tweets that the Yankees have declined to offer arbitration to any of their free agents. While this makes perfect sense for unclassified free agents such as Hideki Matsui, Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston Jr, and Jose Molina, not offering arbitration to Johnny Damon, Andy Pettitte, and Xavier Nady means that the Yankees will not receive draft pick compensation if any of them sign elsewhere.

I can understand the Yankees' thought process here, though as I stated previously, I think it was worth the risk to offer arbitration to Damon. That said, the Yankees had the market figured perfectly last year in declining offers to Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Giambi.

Nothing is settled as a result of this. Pettitte will almost assuredly be in the Bronx if he chooses to play next year, and I still think that Damon and the Yankees make the most sense for each other. Nady is likely gone, but not offering him arbitration doesn't preclude him from coming back if that's what both parties want.

Damon now becomes a more attractive candidate to other teams, as they are free to sign him without surrendering a draft pick. This likely won't impact the Yankees at all, as their refusal to offer him arbitration indicates that they have a dollar amount in mind for Damon and they're not going to exceed that be it in arbitration or on the open market. What it does signal though is that if the Yankees are truly interested in bringing Damon back, they are apparently willing to offer at least an option year if not a guaranteed second year. It's highly unlikely that Damon will be accept a one year contract on the open market, and arbitration was the club's best bet to ensure keeping him for one year and one year only.

We'll be back in the morning with a run down of who amongst the Type A's was offered arbitration and how it might impact the Yankees free agent shopping.

Arbitration For Damon?

Good morning Fackers. We're more than halfway through November. The free agency signing period opens in full this Friday. However, since the deadline for teams to offer their own free agents arbitration isn't until December 1st, it's unlikely that we'll see any signings before then. Teams that lose free agents prior to the arbitration deadline are automatically entitled to the appropriate draft pick compensation.

We may see a few unclassified free agents sign since they carry no compensation, or a few Type B free agents sign since the signing team does not surrender a draft pick of their own. Generally speaking though, it's the Type A free agents that set the market, and since draft pick compensation for a Type A free agent requires the signing team to surrender their first round draft pick (or second round pick for the teams with the top fifteen picks), it's unlikely that we'll see any Type A's sign - and therefore unlikely that we'll see the market set - until after December 1st.

In baseball's changing economic landscape, extending an arbitration offer isn't the no-brainer it once was. As the U.S. economy nosedived last fall, so too did the market for free agents. The Yankees rightly decided not extend arbitration offers to the likes of Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, and even Andy Pettitte, as they stood to earn more in arbitration than they would on the open market. In a similar vein, this fall, baseball insiders - notably Buster Olney - are predicting widespread non-tendering of arbitration eligible players whose likely arbitration raises exceed their value to their club. Such situations have already precipitated the trades of J.J. Hardy by the Brewers and Jeremy Hermida by the Marlins this off-season.

As far as the Yankees are concerned, they have three arbitration decisions to make on their own free agents this year: Type B free agents Xavier Nady and Andy Pettitte, and Type A free agent Johnny Damon.

While Andy Pettitte is almost assured to return and Xavier Nady offers a high risk, high reward proposition at a reasonable price tag, Johnny Damon presents the most interesting case of the three. While Damon has stated his desire to return to the Yankees since early in the season, there have also been rumblings of his wanting a multiyear contract and not affording the Yankees a "hometown discount". How much of that is posturing by Damon and agent Scott Boras remains to be seen.

Ideally, the Yankees would want to sign Damon for a single year, maybe two, at a salary comparable to the two year, $19M extension Bobby Abreu signed with the Angels earlier this month. However, Damon is coming off a outstanding season. There are teams out there with need (Giants) a player like Damon and GM's without the acumen (Brian Sabean) who might offer Damon what he wants both in terms of years and dollars.

By no means should the Yankees cave to such demands on the part of Damon. However, without resigning Damon on their terms, the Yankees are left with a series of less favorable options: play some combination of Cabrera/Gardner/Jackson in LF/CF, make a potentially costly trade for Curtis Granderson or another outfielder, or pursue a big ticket free agent such as Jason Bay or Matt Holiday, both of whom would require a major commitment in terms of both dollars and years.

Thus, it might be a calculated risk for the Yankees to indeed offer arbitration to Damon. While this would be a departure from the tact they took with Abreu last off-season, the Yankees have a need for Damon, whereas last year Abreu would have been a superfluous and expensive part in addition to Damon, Nady, Swisher, and Matsui. Worst case scenario, Damon would accept. This would ensure him a raise on the $13M he made last year, likely leaving him in the neighborhood of $15M-$16M on a one year deal.

This would certainly be more than Damon could get on the open market and likely more than he is worth - but not by much. Fangraphs.com places Damon's value at $13.6M this past season and $16.4M in 2008. Offering him arbitration might force them to pay a small premium for his services, but it's a premium the Yankees could likely afford to absorb. Further, it would assure that they keep Damon's services for a time frame of their choosing, and would give them the added safety net of an additional first round and supplemental round pick should Damon find his multiyear deal elsewhere.

So what do you think? Should the Yankees offer arbitration to Johnny Damon?

You Know You've Made It In Sports Blogging When...

...Someone takes the time to FJM one of your posts.

Click over and see the hopeless homers at Halos Heaven (of SB Nation, of the Internets) misinterpret what Matt was trying to say, make a misguided attempt at mocking the title of this site, and use "words" like "fallicy" to defend their hitting coach right fielder, Bobby Abreu.

Behold this brilliant analogy comparing Abreu's influence on the Angels to a math teacher:

Once agan it comes down to LUCK. Sure. If your kid comes home from school with better math grades and tells you it's because his teacher showed him a better way to solve the equation, are you going to tell him, "No, you've just had better luck".

This would make perfect sense if A) there were varying degrees to which you could solve an equation, B) the greatest mathematician who ever lived solved equations at a 50% clip, C) the person creating the equations was doing so with the intention of making them impossible to solve and D) the teacher was somehow also the child's classmate. But other than that, it's flawless. Bobby Abreu is Mr. Dewey. Got it.

They also put together an wildly unoriginal list of reasons they hate the Yankees which we would counter if Yankees fans cared enough about the Angels to hate them. Well okay, here's one:

1. CHONE Figgins - I've never pronounced it "Shawn" and never will. Ch-ch-ch-ch-choke on that one, Figgins!

Just because the Red Sox aren't in the ALCS doesn't mean there can't be some animosity involved. Fuck the Angels... Wooohohohohohoo!!!

Round 2: Damon v. Abreu

Yesterday's hot topic around here, Bobby Abreu just got offered a nice new deal with the Angels.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim offered Bobby Abreu a two-year extension worth about $16MM, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

As he did before this year, ol' Bobby is shooting for the stars and looking for a better deal. There's no real harm in that since he didn't sign with the Angels until mid-February this year and he has every right to find another team that's willing to pay him more than that.

Abreu is a really good hitter who would be an asset if placed in any lineup in the history of the game and he's coming off a pretty good year. But he'll be 36 years old when next season starts. He already has limited ability as a corner outfielder and will eventually transition into a part-time DH role.

Does that scenario sound familiar? That's right folks, Johnny Damon is in a nearly identical position.

Granted, the most likely scenario is that both guys stay where they are at, but let's assume the Yankees could have either of them for 2 years at $10M per. It might be a bit much, but with that offer already sitting out there for Abreu, we know it's not going to be much less.

Like we did yesterday with Nick Swisher and Abreu, let's look at the stats.

Damon batted in the two hole almost exclusively this year, while Abreu primarily hit third. This explains some of the gap in RBI, but not as well as Abreu's .354/.448/.475 line with RISP. That's great and all, but it's hardly sustainable.

On the same note, Damon set a career high for HRs this year and that is likely to regress to the mean next year as well. If Abreu were to get half of his plate appearances in Yankee Stadium in 2010, there's a pretty good chance his totals would increase, bringing the two a bit closer together.

The stolen base edge goes to Abreu, but Damon obviously could have run more and a good portion of the difference has to be the product of the strategy of the teams they play for. Defense isn't going to matter as much in the role that the Yankees are looking for since it will involve a good amount of games in the DH slot but Damon was completely terrible this year, and I don't think we can chalk off of it up to his eye issues. Although subjectively, I don't think there's any way he's that much worse than Abreu.

We're looking at two pretty similar players. Both have been extremely fortunate with their health over the years and remain productive at an advanced age. Both are risky investments and there's a fair chance that two years from now, one will look better than the other or both will look pretty bad. But based on what we know now, who ya got?

Realistically, Damon is far more likely to stick around due to real world factors like their families and such, but on paper a good case could be made for either of these guys. Think of what Abreu could do for the Yankees' approach at the plate!

Swisher v. Abreu

This morning, Matt did a great job debunking the myth of Bobby Abreu's resurgent season and magical contagious plate discipline out in Anaheim. I also want to chime in on Abreu's production this season, but in relation to his ostensible replacement - another cheap acquisition via trade for the Yankees - Nick Swisher.

Although Xavier Nady was slotted as the starting right fielder and Swisher was supposed to man first base at the time the Yankees declined to offer Abreu arbitration on his $16M 2008 contract, Nady was done for the season by April 14th and Swish ended up getting over 600 plate appearances for the Yanks. Abreu sounded a bit like a spurned lover when talking about the Yankees cutting him loose but the reality is that at the time $16M was far too much to offer a corner outfielder with limited range when the market are held players like Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell - even before taking into account the state of the baseball economy.

The decision made itself. The Angels waited out Abreu's attempts at a large, multi-year deal and got great value on highly productive hitter. Meanwhile, the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira and Swish ended up taking Abreu's place in right field of the New Yankee Stadium. They made essentially the same amount of money in 2009, so who got the better player?

Both guys love to work the count and put up solid OBPs, but that's pretty much where their similarities end. Let's take a look at the numbers (bold print represents an advantage):

A cursory look at the basic stats would give the nod to Abreu. His batting average is far higher than Swisher's and he batted in 14 21 more runs while stealing 30 bases.

However, while Abreu complied 41 more hits than Swisher, he actually had 14 fewer go for extra bases. The OBP advantage goes to Abreu, but more importantly, the slugging crown is Swish's by a wide margin. The home run totals are skewed by the New Yankee Stadium (although Swish only hit 8 at home), but not so much that Abreu would have hit twice as many there.

Abreu batted either second or third in the Angels' line up while Swisher was typically hitting somewhere between 6th and 8th for the Yankees, which explains the difference in RBIs. The 30 stolen bases at a 78% success rate do represent a major advantage for Abreu, but adding those 22 net total bases to Abreu's total isn't enough counteract Swisher's advantage in slugging percentage while subtracting the 8 times on base brings with OBPs closer together.

Usually, you would expect the guy who is a better base stealer to have the advantage in fielding as well, but that's not the case in this scenario. Swish didn't even attempt to steal a base all year long but still was better, or should I say "not as bad" as Abreu in right field.

Mainly on the strength of defense and power, Swisher had a higher value for the Yankees this year. Since Abreu hit all the plate appearance-based incentives in his contract this year, it means that Swish was the cheaper option by about $700,000 as well.

Both teams made out very well, but for different reasons. Swisher was cost controlled because of the deal he signed buying out his arbitration years and Abreu's contract was one of the most team-friendly in a historic buyer's market. The Yanks got an average fielding slugger while the Angels got a singles-raking base stealer. And with the teams meeting in the ALCS, I don't think there are too many regrets with how this scenario played out.

The Fallacy Of El Comedulce

Good morning Fackers. The completion of the transcontinental railroad in 1869 allowed for far easier and faster transportation from the East Coast to the West Coast than had previously existed. Yet, from what I've been hearing and reading over the past several months, the concepts of the base on balls and working the pitch count still did not make its way west until some 140 years later when Bobby Abreu signed with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Don't get me wrong, Bobby Abreu is a very good baseball player. Depending upon how the Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui situations work out this off-season, he might be a good option for the 2010 Yankees to explore. He was initially acquired in one of the best deals Brian Cashman has made and provided the Yankees with two and a half years of good to excellent offensive production, even if his phobia of outfield walls was downright comical by the end of his tenure in the Bronx. The Yankees rightly refused to offer him arbitration following last season, as the $16M he earned in 2008 would have made his 2009 arbitration figure far more than what he's worth. That coupled with the collapse of the free agent market last off-season in light of both the U.S. economy and the ever changing landscape of baseball economics allowed the Angels to sign Abreu for the bottom basement price of $5M for 2009.

While the prevaling narrative is that Abreu enjoyed something of a comeback season, the reality is that his OPS+ of 115 this year is worse than last year (120), essentially equal to his 2007 (114), and the second lowest total of his career since becoming an everyday player in 1998. Some of that can be attributed to the continued diminishing of his power late in his career. But while his OBP of .390 and his BB% of 14.1 are improvements on 2007 and 2008, they still rank as his third lowest marks since 1998.

Yet if you were to listen to the announcers during ALDS or any other nationally televised Angels' game this year, or if you were to google "Bobby Abreu influence on Angels", you would be subjected to scores of hyperbolic statements crediting Abreu with teaching the Angels, who have made the playoffs three straight seasons and six of the last eight, how to finally work a pitch count and take a walk. Nevermind that as recently as 2007 the Angels finished third in the AL in OBP, just as they did this year, with a mark .345, just a half percent lower than this year's .350.

In this post yesterday, Rob Neyer, vamping on Tyler Kepner's piece in The Times, pointed out that the Angels walked 66 more times this year than last, boosting their walk rate from 7.8% to 8.7% and rising from 11th in the AL in OBP back to third, where they had finished in 2007. Yet Neyer also notes that the difference can be entirely attributed to the performance of Abreu alone, who had 65 more walks than the man he replaced - Garrett Anderson, a notorious free swinger whose career high in walks is a whopping 38. In addition to Abreu, Chone Figgins walked 39 more times this year than in 2008. So outside of Figgins and swapping Anderson for Abreu, the rest of the Angels walked 38 fewer times than they did in 2008.

While their average pitches per plate appearance increased from 3.65 to 3.88, that only equates to about 12.5 extra pitches per game, of which about 5.5 can be attributed to Abreu and Figgins. So the rest of the line up saw, on average, one extra pitch each over the course of a game. And while the team's walk rate did increase by 0.9% this year, their IsoD is consisent with last year (.065 this year as opposed to .062 last year). Their 20 point boost in on base percentage is just as much due to a 17 point jump in batting average, which in turn can be attributed to a 23 point jump in team BABIP despite just a one percent increase in LD%. So much for Abreu's influence; it appears luck has far more to do with the Angels' surge in OBP than Abreu does.

Bobby Abreu was the best bargain of the 2008-2009 Crazy Eddie style off-season. You don't need FanGraphs to tell you that Abreu was a steal $6M ($5M base plus $1M incentives), but just to put a number on it, FanGraphs places Abreu's worth at $11.8M this year, nearly twice his salary. That's one helluva deal the Angels got for themselves, but it doesn't mean that Abreu, as one of the most selective hitters in the game, has bestowed his patience upon the rest of the lineup through his mere presence. Keep that in mind as Joe Buck, Tim McCarver, Ken Rosenthal, and the print media try to beat that story line into our head over the course of the ALCS.

Fack Youk Field Trip: The Big A

As I mentioned yesterday, I'm stuck out in Southern California this week for work. I suppose there are worse places to go, but I'm an East Coast guy through and through. The pace of life out here just isn't my speed (e.g. going to dinner Friday night and having to wait a good five minutes before the bartender even acknowledged my presence - and it wasn't busy). Besides, going away for a week for vacation is one thing, having to get out of the usual routine and leave home for a week for work is another - especially when it costs me a precious weekend.

But it's not all doom and gloom out here. Having just got into town the night before and with the time difference in my favor, I woke up fairly early Saturday morning and managed to get my work done before noon. With that behind me, I hopped in a cab and shot over to the Big A to take in a game between the Halos and the Twinkies - I couldn't let Jay be the only Facker to spend Saturday afternoon at the ballpark. Despite my earlier misgivings about the relative safety of doing so, you'll be happy to know (or maybe unhappy to know), that I made it through the experience unscathed - no beer bottles to the head, no gun shot wounds, etc.

A tribute to Nick Adenhart still exists in front of the Stadium. Having just finished Marty Appel's Thurman Munson biography on the flight out (probably not the best setting to read a book about a guy who died in a plane crash), it was eerie to see the memorial to another man who died while an active Major Leaguer - a situation the Angels have dealt with far too many times in their relatively brief history.

The differences between The Big A and Yankee $tadium were apparent from the get go. Ballpark parking in Anaheim is $8 compared to $19 in the Bronx. I walked up to the box office and scored a field level ticket, twenty two rows back in leftfield, for $33. That kind of money won't even get you out of the terrace in New York. The beer is a lot cheaper as well - $6.50 for 16 oz.

I had hoped to take in BP, maybe even score a ball given my seat's proximity to the field, but it wasn't to be. There was no batting practice Saturday with the day game after the night game - or at least there wasn't at about 11:45 when I got to my seat. Rather than bake in the sun for an hour and a half, I decided to take a walk through the stadium to see what I could see.

As I passed by the Guest Sevices office, I dropped in to see if there were any attractions in the ballpark. I realize that not everyone has a Monument Park or a ballpark museum, but I figured there had to be something. Apparently not - my question was greeted with nothing but quizzical looks.

History apparently is not something readily embraced by the Angels organization. The retired numbers are located behind snack carts in the rightfield upper deck. The Angels Hall of Fame consists of a few paintings on a wall in the mezzanine - including one time Yankees Don Baylor and Jimmie Reese.

Also on the mezzanine level are wall sized photos of former Angel "greats". I laughed out loud at seeing the great Mike Witt up there. Witt, you may recall, was sent to the Yankees for Dave Winfield in 1990, and was perpetually injured, starting just 27 games over four seasons and pitching to a 4.91 ERA, all for the low low cost of $7.5M.

Without a horse in the race, I was just hoping for something interesting to happen during the game. So I was turning into a Twins fan after Nick Blackburn was perfect through three. That all came to a screeching halt in the fourth, as the Angels put up a nine spot on their way to an 11-5 victory.

I did get to see something interesting though, as a fan decided to take to the field in the late innings. He eluded security for a good bit, making it all the way to the outfield grass behind shortstop after jumping on from the right field line. Security usually lives for a situation like that, but the takedown was pretty weak. As the police escorted him out right by my section, the PA announcer made sure to remind the fans that running on the field is now classified as a felony. A felony! With one dead fan and one paralyzed one under their belts already this year, perhaps the local authorities should be more concerned with protecting the fans in their seats rather than prosecuting the ones out of them.

You'll also be happy to know that Bobby Abreu did not come within twenty feet of a fence all afternoon. I hope to be able to get back once more before I skip town.

Pleading The Fifth

For the second day in a row, it looked like the Yankees were going to get the Rally Monkey off their backs. Instead the Angels staged another big comeback and continued their recent dominance against the Bombers, setting then two games back in the AL East.

It didn't take for the Yanks get things going. In the first, with two outs and Johnny Damon standing on first, Alex Rodriguez blasted a homer to left to make it 2-0. In the following inning Eric Hinske added his second roundtripper as a Yankee, a solo shot to center. A-Rod walked to lead of the fourth, advanced to second on an errant pickoff attempt by Jered Weaver and scored on a Robinson Cano double, who has seemingly awoken from his RISP drought.

Andy Pettitte worked through his first three innings allowing two walks but no hits, but needed 46 pitches to do so. He no hit bid was broken up by an Eric Aybar double in the fourth. Bobby Abreu singled in Aybar, which in combination with some hard hit foul balls looked ominous for Pettitte. He settled down though, strikingout Mike Napoli, and then sitting down Kendry Morales and Gary Matthews in order to end the threat.

As was the case last night, the Angels did major damage in the fifth inning, again via the home run. Howie Kendrick singled to begin the frame and top prospect Brandon Wood took one out the opposite way to make it 4-3. Pettitte allowed a single but very nearly got Chone Figgins to ground into a double play, but the speedy Yankee killer barely beat the throw. It got much uglier. Consecutive base hits tied the game and sent Pettitte to the showers. Girardi called on David Robertson but he promptly gave up a two run double to Mike Napoli, which would ultimately cause Pettitte to take the loss.

Robertson struck out the side in the sixth inning, but Reggie Willits reached on a wild pitch and was tripled in by Eric Aybar. Brett Tomko got Bobby Abreu out to finish the inning, but allowed a run of his own in the 7th. The offense kept plugging away, adding two runs in the bottom half of 7th and the 8th on a two run shot by Eric Hinske and solo dingers courtesy of A-Rod and Hideki Matsui.

With the score 10-8 in favor of the Angels entering the bottom of the 8th, Phil Coke was summoned to keep the Yanks within striking distance. He did anything but that. The Angels plated four runs and put the game out of reach.

The 14-8 final score might not even be representative of how brutal this game was. Once again, the offense put up a significant early lead and the pitching staff squandered it away. It's especially frustrating considering the Yankees proximity to the Red Sox and their inepititude against the Angels. They'll try to salvage some dignity heading into the All-Star break this afternoon at 3:35. We'll be back later with the preview.

Game 22: #4

First off: Der-ek Jet-er
Secondly: Welcome back, Bobby

Game 22: #2

Despite the fact that there are maaaaaybe 15,000 people here, Abreu
got a warm reception.

Joba Strong, Cone Wrong, Shelly Goes Long

[Last night was the first chance I've had to catch any Spring Training action this year. Although the games are not at all compelling, it's a great thing to have on in the background while you cook some dinner and dig your apartment out from a couple weeks of neglect.

It also serves the purpose of establishing some sort of a game recap posting convention for when the regular season rolls around. For now there are screen grabs and some commentary, but nothing too analytical. There are plenty of places you can get that stuff at a higher level than I am capable of.]

Joba looked strong and struck out 3 in his three innings, and topping out at 96mph. He needed only 29 pitches (20 strikes) to get through the Reds, allowing one run on three hits without walking a batter.

A fastball on the outside to Jay Bruce. As you can see, Joba was already halfway to the dugout before the ump finished his punch out. Disgraceful.
A slider on the outside corner that Brandon Phillips didn't have a shot at.
And a breaking ball right over the dish that froze Juan Encarnacion.
I wasn't going to bring this up, but David Cone made this ass-backwards point twice:

"...we kind of touched on it earlier, how effective [Nady] was as a Yankee. He had a great year in Pittsburgh, but when he came over in the trade with Damaso Marte... he was solid. And really, probably the reason Bobby Abreu wasn't re-signed was because of how well Xavier Nady played for the Yankees last year so they know he's a right field option for them... And he's the reason that Bobby Abreu was not re-signed."

He's right. Except he's completely wrong. Here are Xavier Nady's splits by team last year:

• Pirates - .330/.383/.535 (144 OPS+)
  
• Yankees - .268/.320/.474 (105 OPS+)

He was excellent with the Pirates last year, but barely above league average offensively as a corner outfielder in his time with the Yanks. He did have 12 HRs in 59 games with the Yanks as opposed to 13 in 89 games with the Pirates, which in a way is worse, because those stats already take that into account, meaning he was more of an all or nothing hitter with the Bombers.

I'd say the "the reason" they didn't sign Bobby Abreu was that he was looking for a 3 year deal when the free agency period began and Nady was only arbitration eligible. Ironically, however, Nady ended up getting a $6.55M contract, while Abreu was forced to settle for $5M.

-----

Leading in to the top of the third inning, YES showed the following message:

I don't think this is your target market, Yankees Ticket Sales. How many people do you think were watching the third inning of a Spring Training game saying to themselves, "Hey, I was wondering what I could do with that $52,650 I have just sitting around! Field Level Yankees season tickets... Why didn't I think of that?"

"LIMITED TIME ONLY"? If they were really going so fast, they probably wouldn't have to advertise their availability. Yes, it will be a limited amount of time until the prices are lowered. So... "PURCHASE TODAY!"

I'm all for the Field Level subsidizing the rest of the stadium with ridiculously inflated ticket prices, like Lon Trost and others have claimed it does. But if they are going to sit empty, that sort of fucks that plan in the ear, no?

-----

A high-five, Shelly? You just hit a three run homer. What happened to the signature Shelly Duncan Forearm Bash(c) ??? My sincere guess is that word came down from the front office that he needed to stop because he was probably going to hurt someone.

P.S. I don't care if Kei Igawa pitched two perfect innings, I'd still rather pretend he doesn't exist.

Cashman Crossing T's, Dotting I's

Benjamin Disraeli once said, "It is easier to be critical than right." Ironically, when ripping on Peter Abraham's pinch hitter, I was also doing it in the "easiest, laziest" way possible. In light of this, here are a few points I'd like to make in favor of moves Cashman has made this offseason.

Lost in the juxtaposition of Yankees' splashy free agent acquisitions and the general timidity with which GM's around the league have approached this offseason, has been Brian Cashman's attention to detail. Sure, Cashman has financial resources that other GM's do not, but he's also paying attention to the little things just as much as an executive of a small or mid-market team would.

Remember this move? The Yankees sold the rights to Darrell Rasner to the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Japanese Pacific League for $1M. Aside from that cool million, the Yankees are off the hook for Rasner's salary (maybe another $500K?). The move also works out nicely for Rasner, who also has a chance to make up to three times what his salary would have been if he stayed in the MLB and will have a chance to pitch against weaker hitters than in the AL East. I think Cashman realized that it would be better for both parties to ship Rasner to the Pacific Rim, and saved a million and a half bones in the process. At a time when the Red Sox broke some unwritten rules and signed Junichi Tazawa, Cashman has maintained a more amicable relationship with Japan.

In trading for Nick Swisher, Cash picked up an underrated guy coming off of a terrible season for marginal bench guy Wilson Betemit, and B-level minor league prospects Jeff Marquez and Johnny Nunez. A corollary to this, I believe, is that proclaiming Swisher as their starting first baseman, quieted the "Teixeira To Yanks!" rumors enough for them to swoop in at the last minute, under nearly every one's radar.

Cashman also declined to offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu and Pudge Rodriguez before it was apparent just how far teams would cut back spending this year. If they had offered arbitration to any of those players, they all almost certainly would have accepted, leaving the Yanks with too many catchers or outfielders or Andy Pettitte for over $16M. A less conscientious GM might not have gauged the market correctly, leaving the Yanks with untrade-ably expensive spare parts.

When Cashman signed his 3 year $6M extension at the end of September and went on the New York talk radio circuit, he had an edge in his voice. It seemed like he was out to correct the public perception that because of the massive payroll, anyone could GM the Yanks.

I think he's the perfect, and possibly the only guy for the job. Cashman is entrenched in the organization (an employee since he was 19) and has shown the ability to manage the sometimes unwieldy undercurrents of the front office. Do you think a new GM could have understood the complicated dynamics existing between Hal, Hank, an aging George and Randy Levine (more on him soon) quickly enough to get as much accomplished as they have this offseason? I would tend to think not.