Not So Breaking News: Damon To Tigers

Hello Fackers. We interrupt this regularly scheduled weekend to bring you a breaking news bulletin. Johnny Damon, he of the magical DNA and absurd contract demands, has finally signed. Our long national nightmare is over.

Out of any alternate options, Damon has reportedly signed with the Tigers for one year, $8M, with no deferred money. All things considered, Scott Boras' mysterious powers over Tigers' owner Mike Ilitch was the only saving grace for his client. The Tigers were bidding against themselves essentially, and Boras was still able to get his client more than he rightly could expect by this point.

Still, Damon's deal is a far cry from Boras' initial three year $39M demand to the Yankees, a far cry from the terms discussed prior to Nick Johnson signing, and not much more than the Yankees' final offer of one year $6M. In the end, Damon was left with no other option but to ink a deal with Detroit, a franchise whose offseason began by dumping important cogs in Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson, and Placido Polanco, but concluded with signing a closer to a two year $14M deal and paying a 36 year old left fielder more than anyone else was willing.

We wish Damon all the best in Detroit, and Yankee fans will fondly remember his contributions over the past four seasons. But, as our friend Jason likes to remind us, and as Johnny Damon has illustrated for the second time in his career, it's about the money, stupid.

Have Damon And Boras Lost Their Collective Mind?

Good morning Fackers. I know Johnny Damon's endless search for a contract is well beyond played out at this point, but I'd like to take a moment to call attention to the lunacy of the recent and rather pathetic attempts at public relations and spin that Scott Boras is attempting to execute on behalf of his client. They fly in the face of all rational thought. I'm not sure if these two are crazy like foxes or just plain crazy, but I'm fairly certain it's the latter.

Nearly two weeks ago, I questioned whether the recent misplays of Scott Boras are indicative of the super agent losing his touch. Monday, Tim Dierkes at MLBTR questioned whether Boras has failed unsigned clients Johnny Damon, Jarrod Washburn, and Felipe Lopez this off-season.

Boras has been reduced to an embarrassingly transparent PR blitz in Detroit, one of a few remaining potential landing places for his client. Boras has had success in the past duping Detroit into overpaying for convincing Detroit to sign his clients, so he's really turning on the charm here. He's largely bypassing general manager Dave Dombrowski and appealing directly to owner Mike Ilitch.

In an advertisement interview with the Detroit Free Press yesterday, Boras stated "Johnny came to me about Detroit. He told me, 'If I can't play for the Yankees I want you to let the Tigers know I want to play for them. I can make that team a winner.' " He further explained that Damon has long been a fan of the Detroit Red Wings, who incidentally are owned by none other than Mike Ilitch. If that weren't enough, Boras went on XM yesterday afternoon to hammer his talking points further; Jason tweeted most of the details.

Meanwhile, Damon appears to be working an angle with his other remaining suitor, the Braves, telling the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the Braves "are definitely at the top of my list". Is that the top of the list next to the Tigers, above the Tigers, or just below the Tigers?

Yet according to Boras, Damon has passsed on "four or five" offers since it became apparent that he wasn't re-signing with the Yankees. If this is true, it's apparently because he's holding out for a two year deal.

To which I say: are you out of your minds?!?! Look, I understand that Damon and Boras are trying to get the best deal possible. I understand that Damon will likely be forced to sign a contract that pays him less than what he'll be worth next year. I understand that there's pride involved here, and that Damon's assets were frozen for a time last year as the result of some bad investments, so maybe he does need the extra money he's holding out for.

But at some point these two have to wake up and smell the coffee. As much as they try, they cannot create the market they want for Damon's services. Spring Training starts in a week and Damon's suitors are limited. The Reds apparently have bowed out, and aside from the two teams listed above, the Rays are the only other possible landing spot. They're trying to outwit GMs who aren't likely to be outwitted. We're not talking about the types of guys who would hand a job to Mike Jacobs.

Damon should just take his best offer and sign. He's already cost himself millions by refusing the Yankees' offers. There's no way he's getting a two year deal now, and given how badly his market crashed this off-season, he's probably better off signing a one year deal and having another go at it next year anyway. Boras can't seem to handle more than one client at a time this off-season, so the sooner Damon signs, the sooner Boras might be able to salvage what little interest is left in Jarrod Washburn before he decides to retire, and the sooner we'll be freed from the siege of daily Damon updates.

18 Days Until Spring Training: Johnny Damon

Far too many words have been spilled over the saga of Johnny Damon this offseason, so I'm going to keep this very short.

Johnny Damon is a baseball player. He used to play baseball for the New York Yankees. He once stole two bases in one fell swoop during a World Series game.

Thanks partially to his steep initial contract demands and partially to a conflict of interest on his agent's part, he won't be playing for the Yankees anymore and remains a free agent. He recently made a very stupid comment in regards to Derek Jeter's contract situation that is going to make Yankees fans miss him even less when he's gone:

“I hope he isn't offered a 45 percent pay cut.”

He won't be, Johnny. Because there will be a significantly greater demand for his services. Because he's not a corner outfielder with declining range and a legendarily weak arm in a market flooded with low cost options. Thanks for the memories.

The end.

Lupica Is At It Again...

And by "it", I mean being a sniveling malcontent and finding things to criticize about the Yankees, lest they forget that they play in New York, where the media is notoriously tough on it's teams - mainly because of smarmy, self-righteous whiners like Lupica. To wit:

But for now the story, and the Yankees are sticking to it, is that they've got a by-God budget. That they couldn't afford what they say Damon wanted. Or what they thought he wanted. Or what they were afraid Damon's agent, Scott Boras, might try to weasel out of them, because nobody can out-weasel Boras.

Really? Johnny Damon turns out to be the one guy the Yankees can't afford? It would be like finding the one bar girl Tiger Woods didn't want to take home with him.

Topical! But something tells me that if Tiger were in rehab for drugs or alcohol, Lupica wouldn't be a cracking joke about the line he didn't want to snort of the gin and tonic he didn't want to chug.

For now, though, [the Yankees] desperately want Damon's departure to be somebody else's fault. Damon's. Boras'. Anybody but theirs. At the same time, Boras is out there selling his own version of things, door to door if he has to, the same way he peddled his own self-serving version on Carlos Beltran's knee surgery.

I really don't think the Yankees care whose fault it is that Damon isn't coming back. They didn't fire him. They didn't trade or release him. His contract expired and he became a free agent. This would be like trying assign blame for my departure from college because I didn't go back to Bentley for grad school.

But does anybody believe that Johnny Damon, who helped beat the Yankees in 2004 when he was with the Red Sox and played such a spectacular World Series for the Yankees five years later against the Phillies, has to go because of money? Or because Boras made Brian Cashman mad?

Yes, how could the Yankees let Damon go when he made one play against them five years ago, and then another one for them last year? How stupid can the Yankees be, not giving Damon all the money he wants because he played well in two World Series five years apart?!?1

Cashman might be a little perturbed by this situation, but it's not like he did something irrational because he was angry at Scott Boras. He was keenly aware that the Yankees had the upper hand in the situation and Boras (and to a lesser extend, Damon) refused to give in. Now those two are free to roam the open market and find a one year deal like the one Bobby Abreu had to settle for last year. Sometimes when you play hard to get, you don't get got.

Cashman 1, Boras 0, Lupica -10.

[Update: TYU has a much more thorough takedown of the piece and Craig from CTB has a much more efficient one. But guess who couldn't agree more with Lupica!]

Some Advice For Scott Boras

This has been brought up elsewhere on the interwebs, but I wanted to touch upon it a bit more here. Has uber agent Scott Boras lost a little bit off his fastball?

Two years ago he badly, badly botched the A-Rod opt out situation, both from a public relations standpoint and in grossly overestimating the market for his client. Had A-Rod not come crawling back to the Yankees on his own and had Hank Steinbrenner not been in a historically giving mood, A-Rod might have found himself without a suitor capable of matching the deal from which he opted out. Given the hard budgetary line Hal has drawn in the sand this off-season, consider how differently the A-Rod situation might have played out had Hal been calling all the shots two years ago.

That spring, Boras client Pedro Alvarez was the second pick in the draft. Under Boras' guidance, Alvarez did not sign a contract prior to the August 15th signing deadline. Not only did this lead to the MLBPA filing a grievance against the Pirates and Alvarez being temporarily placed on the restricted list, but it delayed the start of Alvarez' career and created bad blood between him and his ballclub before he even put on a uniform.

Last off season, he foolishly steered Jason Varitek away from accepting arbitration from the Red Sox, only to find that there wasn't much of a free agent market for the declining backstop. Varitek reupped with the Sox for $5M, while accepting arbitration would have guaranteed him a raise on the $9M he made in 2008. That deal did lead to Varitek having a $3M option for the upcoming season, but the $8M total over 2009-10 is less than what he would have earned in 2009 had he accepted arbitration.

This year, Boras gambled with Matt Holliday and was lucky enough to get the Cardinals to outbid themselves by several million dollars. As we all know by now though, Boras wasn't quite so lucky with Johnny Damon. Boras admittedly paid Damon no mind until the Holliday situation was resolved; completely overplayed his hand with the Yankees, Braves, and Giants; and is losing the public relations battle badly.

So here's a little unsolicited advice for Scott Boras. Take a good look at this picture:

Firstly Mr. Boras, if you don't remove your head from your ass in the immediate future, your client will be photographed golfing far more often since he'll no longer be playing baseball.

Secondly, take a good look at Johnny's swing. Perhaps you can market your client as a switch hitter, a dead low ball hitter from the right side, in a last ditch effort to squeeze a few extra million out of some poor, unsuspecting, mystery team.

(Photo from i-yankees)

Yesterday In Yankeedom

Good morning Fackers. Well yesterday was a relatively busy day in Yankee-related news, and at this time of year that qualifies as a big news day. So let's get to it:

• Ben Sheets signed with the Oakland A's yesterday. The Yankees were linked to Sheets early in the off season, but that went out the window with the Javier Vazquez trade. Of greater pertinence is that Johnny Damon was rumored to be the A's back up plan in the event they were unable to land Sheets. Setting aside the obvious question as to how signing an outfielder could be a viable back up plan for failing to land a starting pitcher, it would appear that Damon has one fewer potential suitor. Except maybe the A's are still interested. Or maybe they're not. I have no idea anymore. I wish Damon would just sign somewhere and/or Spring Training would start.

• Xavier Nady signed with Cubs. Like Sheets, the Yankees were in on Nady earlier in the off season, before deeming his price to be too high. Interestingly enough, apparently the Yankees' price for Nady was higher than the Cubs price. Nady signed for $3.3M with $2M in incentives. According to Joel Sherman though, Boras' last proposal to the Yankees was for $5M. No word as to whether that was $5M guaranteed or total, but if it was the former it doesn't bode well for the increasingly icy relationship between Boras and Cashman.
  
  It'll be interesting to see how Nady fares returning from a second Tommy John surgery. By inking a deal with an NL club he has no DH safety net in the event his arm can't handle the rigors of playing the field. With Nady now off the market, there is one fewer suitor for the other right handed outfielders on the market, all of whom have some level of appeal to the Yankees.

• The Yankees made a deal of their own yesterday, trading minor league infielder Mitch Hilligoss to the Rangers for recently DFA'd outfielder Greg Golson. Hilligoss posted good numbers in his first two pro seasons, but is coming off back-to-back abysmal seasons at high A Tampa.
  
  Golson was a first round pick of the Phillies in 2004 and was traded to the Rangers for John Mayberry Jr following the 2008 season. He's 0 for 7 with 5 Ks in 7 Major League games over the last two years and has a .263/.308/.395 batting line in 2780 minor league PA, with 140 SB in 178 attempts (78.7%). But, the Yankees are lacking outfield depth at the upper levels of the minor leagues. If nothing else, he gives Scranton a center fielder for next year, which is important because they'd give up a lot of triples without one.
  
  For what it's worth, Frankie Piliere, who we noted yesterday is a former Rangers scout, tweets that Golson is "an interesting tools guy" and calls it a good deal for the Yankees. There's already speculation that Golson might be 2010's Freddy Guzman. And that may be true, but does it warrant the 40 man roster that Golson now occupies?

The acquisition of Golson leaves the Yankees with 39 players on their 40 man. Still room for you Johnny...

Why We're Lucky To Have Brian Cashman

Our GM discussing the current free agent market for outfielders (via LoHud):

“How long it’s taking certain people to wake up and smell the coffee, that’s what surprises me,” Cashman said. “When you get on the phone with agents, they tell you one thing, and certain agents (cough)ScottBoras(cough) can’t honestly believe what they’re trying to convey. Do they think I’m stupid?”

Okay, I added the italics. But I love the fact that there is someone in charge of the Yankees who can correctly gauge the market and sees through the bullshit. He doesn't rush or panic and is impervious to the games that agents try to play.

So to answer your question, Steve, yes I think Cashman "would be an effective and successful G.M. of a major league baseball team if he had a team payroll budget to work with that was in the range of $100 to $120 million (and no more than that)".

News And Notes

Some news and notes regarding the Yankees:

• Eric Hinske has signed with the Braves. Hinske was a nice mid-season pick up for the Yankees last year and a useful bench piece. While some have expressed concern over the state of the Yankee bench at present, let's not forget that two of last year's most useful bench pieces - Hinske and Jerry Hairston Jr - were mid-season pick ups. With the talent level in the Yankees everyday line up, it's hard to attract good veteran bench players. The Yankees also have a need to keep some roster flexibility with their bench and they can't easily do that with an optionless player like Hinske. Juan Miranda may offer similar offensive value and the team has to be willing to allocate a spot to Rule 5 pick up Jamie Hoffman or risk losing him back to the Dodgers.

• The Braves have a need for pop in the outfield corners, a need for insurance behind Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus at the infield corners, and a need for a good pinch hitter as an NL club. Hinske makes a lot of sense for them and he stands to get 350 AB or so. Plus, he gets a Major League deal from them where the Yankees likely would have pushed for a minor league one.

• Meanwhile, with Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and Mike Cameron signed, and the Braves likely at their budget, Johnny Damon is virtually painted into a corner. Lucky for him, his agent is just now "in the process of turning his attention" to Damon. I'm sure Johnny's happy about that. If you take Brian Cashman's recent comments to Pete Caldera and Chad Jennings at face value, there's virtually no chance returns to the Yankees. But I don't see a better match out there. Just last night perpetual Boras mouthpiece Jon Heyman suggested Damon could return to the Yankees on their terms. While I wouldn't rule it out, I'm not sure whether the latest report is Heyman leaking Boras speak or Heyman just throwing shit at the wall. You never can tell.

• One thing to keep in mind about the Damon situation is that a $6M salary would represent a more than 50% paycut for him. On multiple occasions this year Brian Cashman has speculated that players who take a paycut are less inclined to do so for their former employer. It worked with Andy Pettitte last year, but Pettitte's a unique case, had an incentive laden deal, and was still semi-vocal about his displeasure. Given some of the accusations hurled at Damon in The Yankee Years, I wonder if the Yankees have particular concerns about Damon's demeanor should return to the Yankees at a greatly reduced pay rate.

• Sergio Mitre and the Yankees agreed on a deal yesterday, avoiding arbitration. Jerry Crasnick reports it's an $850K base salary with incentives.

• The Yankees announced yesterday that entire coaching staff will return in 2010. No real surprise there, but outside of Joe Girardi and Kevin Long, everyone's contract expired at the conclusion of last year.

• Aroldis Chapman will reportedly sign soon, and Buster Olney tweets that the Yankees won't be involved. That's A-OK by me.

Thrifty Red Sox Finally Land Another Third Baseman

In what can only be described as another brilliant bargain basement signing, the always-frugal Boston Red Sox signed Adrian Beltre to a one year, $9M contract with a $5M player option for 2011. The deal, which also includes a $1M buyout, comfortably lifts the scrappy small town underdogs over the luxury tax threshold.

Beltre apparently came down a bit from his initial contract demands of 5 years and $65M which was analogous to me applying for a job and asking for the corner office, a secretary and a wet bar. He settled for a temp job in a cubicle with easy access to the water cooler. However, what the deal sacrifices in luxury, it attempts to make up for in flexibility. It offers Beltre the chance to redeem himself coming off a miserable year in which he hit .265/.304/.379 and played in only 111 games, missing significant time due to a... um... well... how do I say this... an injury.

The Sox are banking on last year being an anomaly and Beltre's defensive abilities being all they are cracked up to be, which is to say pretty damn impressive. His average UZR/150 over the last 4 years has been 12.3, which makes up for the fact that his on-base percentage over that same time period has been .321.

While Beltre supposedly turned down longer deals worth more money from other teams let's wait and see how it turns out before declaring it a "steal" or anything of the sort like I sarcastically did in the first paragraph. Fire Brand of the American League lists his home/road splits over the last three years to show that his production was suppressed by playing in Seattle:

2007: (H) .264/.319/.426 (R) .288/.320/.538
2008: (H) .230/.303/.400 (R) .292/.349/.512
2009: (H) .250/.283/.364 (R) .279/.324/.393

But do you notice another trend? His slugging percentage has been declining over the past three years regardless of where he was hitting.

Oh, and there's also the small consideration of Mike Lowell's contract which the Sox will either have to eat or exchange him for a player equally as useless/overpaid. They could hold on to him but given that both he and Beltre are right handed, there's no platoon option. I suppose he could be a fall back DH if Ortiz struggles again, but that's a waste of a roster spot.

The signing of Beltre certainly makes the Sox better next year, but how many teams can afford to replace a player that was making $12M this coming season (and who should be able to play come opening day) with a guy who is making $9M?

The spendthrift ways of last season have been jettisoned in favor of big budget acquisitions in Boston this year. Apparently the items on the sale rack weren't all they were cracked up to be.

Yanks And Damon Worlds Apart

Depending upon which you reports you believe, the Yankees may or may not have begun negotiating with Johnny Damon late last week. Various reports state that the two sides are worlds apart, with the Yankees offering 2 years and $18M and Damon requesting 4 years and $52M. Putting aside for a second the sheer lunacy of a 36 year old with questionable defensive skills and perhaps park-inflated value wanting a four year deal with an average annual value of $13M in a depressed market, I'm fairly confident the reported offers are accurate. Damon is a Scott Boras client, and since those figures came from notorious Boras mouthpiece Jon Heyman, I believe they are the actual figures being discussed.

We can infer a few things from this. Since it's all part of the negotiating process, I'd assume both sides would be happy offering/accepting more/less than what's currently on the table. If that's the case, we know the Yankees are willing to guarantee a second year and to do so at a market rate contract similar to what Bobby Abreu received from the Angels. We also know that Damon and Boras aren't ready to cave - at least not yet - in light of the Yankees recent outfield acquisitions of Curtis Granderson and Jaime Hoffmann. I'd imagine that they'll try to hold out until Matt Holliday and Jason Bay sign, further defining the outfield market. I just don't know if the Yankees will be willing to wait that long.

Meanwhile, according to a Ken Davidoff tweet on Thursday, there is increasing sentiment that the Yankees will wind up re-signing Hideki Matsui. While the Yankees still have room for both Damon and Matsui, it's more likely that only one or the other will be back next year. The Yankees likely prefer Damon since he can split time between DH and the outfield, but if he and Boras continue to drag their feet in negotiations, the club may turn back to Matsui, who hasn't been seriously rumored to be going anywhere else.

I'm sure this will be one of the predominant Yankee story lines as we move through the next few weeks of the off-season.

Let The Wild Rumpus Start

Good morning Fackers. Well, here we are, December 1st. The first month since March in which there won't be a Major League Baseball game played. While that's a depressing thought to ponder as Old Man Winter settles in, this morning at least we can take some solace in knowing that we're less than a day away from entering the next stage of the Hot Stove League.

Midnight tonight is the deadline for clubs to offer arbitration to their own free agents. The Yankees have three such decisions to make: on Type A free agent Johnny Damon and Type B free agents Andy Pettitte and Xavier Nady. Clubs forfeit draft pick compensation for players to whom they do not offer arbitration. Losing a Type B free agent yields a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds; losing a Type A pick yields a supplemental pick plus the top draft pick of the team that signs the free agent.

The top 16 picks of next year's draft are protected from compensation, so if one of those teams signs a Type A they forfeit their second round pick rather than their first. Teams signing multiple Type A's surrender multiple picks, as we saw with the Yankees losing their first, second, and third round picks last year for signing Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett respectively. In the event such a situation arises, the team that loses the player with the higher Elias ranking gets the higher pick from the signing team.

Two weeks ago we examined the issues surrounding offering arbitration to Johnny Damon. Andy Pettitte likely won't be offered but will almost assuredly be back if he elects to keep playing. If Xavier Nady is healthy he presenrs a good trade chip or an affordable and attractive OF/DH/bench option, but coming off his second Tommy John surgery that's a mighty big "if" for around $8M.

Yesterday MLBTR offered their arbitration predictions, forecasting that the Yankees would decline to offer arbitration to all three. Meanwhile, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs explained that teams have to weigh the arbitration offer not only against the fair market value of a player but also the probability that he'll accept and what the compensation picks would be worth to the club. While our post on Damon takes into account the value of the draft picks and the fair market value, The Yankee Universe brought up a salient point about the probability of accepting: Boras clients rarely accept arbitration as Boras is hellbent on taking them to market for a multiyear deal. It's unlikely that Damon, who wants a multiyear deal, will accept arbitration and forego his right to free agency. It may be well worth the risk to offer arbitration to Damon; we'll soon find out.

Either way, we're not very far off from business picking up in the Hot Stove League.

Arbitration For Damon?

Good morning Fackers. We're more than halfway through November. The free agency signing period opens in full this Friday. However, since the deadline for teams to offer their own free agents arbitration isn't until December 1st, it's unlikely that we'll see any signings before then. Teams that lose free agents prior to the arbitration deadline are automatically entitled to the appropriate draft pick compensation.

We may see a few unclassified free agents sign since they carry no compensation, or a few Type B free agents sign since the signing team does not surrender a draft pick of their own. Generally speaking though, it's the Type A free agents that set the market, and since draft pick compensation for a Type A free agent requires the signing team to surrender their first round draft pick (or second round pick for the teams with the top fifteen picks), it's unlikely that we'll see any Type A's sign - and therefore unlikely that we'll see the market set - until after December 1st.

In baseball's changing economic landscape, extending an arbitration offer isn't the no-brainer it once was. As the U.S. economy nosedived last fall, so too did the market for free agents. The Yankees rightly decided not extend arbitration offers to the likes of Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, and even Andy Pettitte, as they stood to earn more in arbitration than they would on the open market. In a similar vein, this fall, baseball insiders - notably Buster Olney - are predicting widespread non-tendering of arbitration eligible players whose likely arbitration raises exceed their value to their club. Such situations have already precipitated the trades of J.J. Hardy by the Brewers and Jeremy Hermida by the Marlins this off-season.

As far as the Yankees are concerned, they have three arbitration decisions to make on their own free agents this year: Type B free agents Xavier Nady and Andy Pettitte, and Type A free agent Johnny Damon.

While Andy Pettitte is almost assured to return and Xavier Nady offers a high risk, high reward proposition at a reasonable price tag, Johnny Damon presents the most interesting case of the three. While Damon has stated his desire to return to the Yankees since early in the season, there have also been rumblings of his wanting a multiyear contract and not affording the Yankees a "hometown discount". How much of that is posturing by Damon and agent Scott Boras remains to be seen.

Ideally, the Yankees would want to sign Damon for a single year, maybe two, at a salary comparable to the two year, $19M extension Bobby Abreu signed with the Angels earlier this month. However, Damon is coming off a outstanding season. There are teams out there with need (Giants) a player like Damon and GM's without the acumen (Brian Sabean) who might offer Damon what he wants both in terms of years and dollars.

By no means should the Yankees cave to such demands on the part of Damon. However, without resigning Damon on their terms, the Yankees are left with a series of less favorable options: play some combination of Cabrera/Gardner/Jackson in LF/CF, make a potentially costly trade for Curtis Granderson or another outfielder, or pursue a big ticket free agent such as Jason Bay or Matt Holiday, both of whom would require a major commitment in terms of both dollars and years.

Thus, it might be a calculated risk for the Yankees to indeed offer arbitration to Damon. While this would be a departure from the tact they took with Abreu last off-season, the Yankees have a need for Damon, whereas last year Abreu would have been a superfluous and expensive part in addition to Damon, Nady, Swisher, and Matsui. Worst case scenario, Damon would accept. This would ensure him a raise on the $13M he made last year, likely leaving him in the neighborhood of $15M-$16M on a one year deal.

This would certainly be more than Damon could get on the open market and likely more than he is worth - but not by much. Fangraphs.com places Damon's value at $13.6M this past season and $16.4M in 2008. Offering him arbitration might force them to pay a small premium for his services, but it's a premium the Yankees could likely afford to absorb. Further, it would assure that they keep Damon's services for a time frame of their choosing, and would give them the added safety net of an additional first round and supplemental round pick should Damon find his multiyear deal elsewhere.

So what do you think? Should the Yankees offer arbitration to Johnny Damon?

Game 157: Ship Of Fools

When the A's moved from Kansas City after the 1967 season, following 13 seasons of losing records and second division finishes, the city was left without a Major League franchise for the first time since 1954. Just as they had done with Washington, D.C. during the 1961 expansion, the American League moved quickly to place a new team there, with the expansion Royals starting play in 1969 under the guidance of former Yankee Joe Gordon.

Before the Marlins won the World Series in their fifth year of existence, before the Diamondbacks did in their fourth season, before the Blue Jays became the first expansion team to win back-to-back championships, before the Rockies made the post-season in just their third year, the Kansas City Royals were the gold standard of MLB expansion franchises. They had a winning record by their third season. In their eighth, they won the first of three consecutive division titles (losing to the Yankees in the ALCS each time). In their twelfth season, the won their first pennant, ousting the Yankees - who had baseball's best regular season record - in the ALCS. After another division title in 1984, they won the World Series in 1985, their seventeenth season, albeit with the aid of a controversial (and incorrect) call from umpire Don Denkinger in Game 6 that many say cost the Cardinals the Series.

Since then, it's been all down hill for the franchise. In the 25 seasons since that championship, the Royals have had a winning record just seven times, and only once since the 1994 strike ended. Their run of consecutive seasons of futility is not as bad as the Pirates, and their record this year is not as bad as the Nats, O's, or Bucs, but perhaps no MLB franchise offers the trifecta of futility, incompetency, and hopelessness better than the Royals.

Part of this perception may be due to the fact that three prominent and excellent baseball writers: Joe Posnanski, Rob Neyer, and Rany Jazayerli, are all fans of the team to some extent, and all have written at length as to the gross stupidity with which the organization has been run under the stewardship of General Manager Dayton Moore. We've had some fun at Moore's expense this season, and rightfully so, yet at the end of August he was undeservedly, inexplicabl,y and indefensibly rewarded with a four year contract extension running through 2014. That was the straw that broke Jazayerli's back.

The tragic irony of it all is that in addition to the three writers above, there are at least two players within the Royals' organization who are infinitely better qualified to be running the club than Moore. While Moore virtually bragged about his ignorance regarding defensive metrics in the wake of surrendering a top ranked prospect for Yuniesky Betancourt (the least valuable player in all of baseball with at least 300 plate appearances, followed closely by teammates Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs), Royals pitcher Brian Bannister and intriguing prospect Chris "Disco" Hayes, are two of the most sabremetrically attuned players in all of baseball. Yet Moore, despite a littany of mistakes and virtually no success stories, gets a four year contract extension.

One of those mistakes takes to the hill for the Royals tonight. Moore's predecessor, Allard Baird was fired on 5/31/2006. Moore had been brought into the organization the previous day, but was not given the GM responsibilities until June 8th. In between, the 2006 amateur draft was held, a draft in which the Royals had the top pick, but no one at the helm of their sinking ship. The organization selected pitcher Luke Hochevar, a Scott Boras client who refused to sign with the Dodgers after they took him in the first round the previous year. In selecting Hochevar the Royals passed on the likes of Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, and Tim Lincecum.

While the draft certainly isn't an exact science, no one would suggest that entering it without a discernible plan is a good idea, particular when having the choice of any player in the nation. The Royals were forced to cave to the demands of Boras and Hochevar, signing him to a Major League deal that guaranteed him a 40 man roster spot and $5.3M. He made his Big League debut the following September, and has since pitched to a 5.58 ERA through 275 innings.

Chad Gaudin goes for the Yanks tonight in what is an important start for him. Depending upon how many pitchers the Yankees carry, Gaudin is on the cusp of making the post-season roster. With Joba Chamberlain and Brian Bruney both pitching well in their last apperances, Gaudin needs to perform tonight. Another avenue for Gaudin to make the post-season roster is if David Robertson cannot sufficiently rebound from the elbow issue that has sidelined him for nearly all of September. Reports over the weekend had D-Rob available again starting tonight, but Peter Abraham reports that the Yanks will hold him out until tomorrow.

A day after clinching the Yanks trot out mostly reserves tonight. Johnny Damon, Brett Gardner, and Melky Cabrera man the outfield. Jorge Posada will DH after missing the last two games with a stiff neck. Robinson Cano, who leads the AL and is tied for second in MLB in games played, is the only other regular in the line-up. Eric Hinske, Juan Miranda, Francisco Cervelli, and Ramiro Pena round out the order. Interestingly, Jerry Hairston Jr. is not in the line up and has yet to play since leaving last Wendesday's game with a wrist injury.

The Yankees last saw the Royals in the second series of the season, before heading off to Tampa. Now, they meet again in the second-to-last series of the season, before heading off to Tampa to for the weekend. Since they last met, life has been very good for the Yankees. For the Royals, outside of Zack Greinke and Billy Butler, life has been much of the same futility that's marked the franchise for a number of years now. But it's hard to set a winning course when sailing a ship of fools.



Saw your first ship sink and drown from rocking of the boat,
And all that could not sink of swim were just left there to float,
I won't leave you drifting down but whoa it makes me wild,
With thirty years upon my head to have you call me child.

Ship of fools on a cruel sea,
Ship of fools sail away from me,
It was later than I thought when I first believed you,
But now I cannot share your laughter, ship of fools.

The bottles stand as empty now, as they were filled before,
Time there was and plenty, but from that cup no more,
Though I could not caution all, I still might warn a few,
Don't lend your hand to raise no flag atop no ship of fools.

Damon Stayin'?

To be honest, I hated the fact that the Yankees signed Johnny Damon when it first happened. It didn't have much to do with the fact that he was 32 years old and was already declining pretty steeply as a defensive center fielder. It wasn't just that the Yanks passed on Carlos Beltran the year before, who, with respect to the five tools, was better than Damon in every way. I couldn't wrap my head around being forced to root for a play that I had spent so much time deeply despising.

There was his impossibly weak throwing arm that make me wonder if he was actually right handed but never figured it out. It was so easy to hate his faux-Jesusy look, the "Idiots" and "Cowboy Up" bullshit and the goofy speech impediment he used to talk about it all. Above all, the grand slam he hit off Javier Vasquez in the 2004 ALCS was far too painful for me to acknowledge the possibility of ever actively rooting for him at the time.

I certainly never thought I would be in favor of the Yankees offering him another contract at the end of this year. However, nearly four years later, Damon has been one of the most durable players on the Yankees and has continued to pull his weight offensively, even after being shifted to left field.

Tyler Kepner talked to Damon yesterday and Johnny had this to say about his impending free agency:

I don’t know where else I would want to go to. Obviously, that’s not the right thing to say when you’re about ready to approach free agency, but I’m very happy with playing in New York, and my family’s happy I play for New York. There’s no bigger place to go. If you play well here, you’re going to get paid. New York has the resources.

It's important to note that Scott Boras is still his agent and if Damon is anything like the other capitalist robots manufactured by the Boras Corporation, you can take that quote with a grain of salt. In fact, if Damon is anything like the 2005 version of himself, we probably shouldn't put too much stock in his stated intentions, either (h/t NoMaas):

There's no way I can go play for the Yankees, but I know they are going to come after me hard. It's definitely not the most important thing to go out there for the top dollar, which the Yankees are going to offer me. It's not what I need.

As with any contractual negotiation, I'd be in favor of bringing back Damon at the right price. UZR doesn't think too highly of his defense this year, but I'm not ready to relegate Damon solely to DH status. Just last year his UZR/150 was 11.6 and this year it's -9.6. Has he really fallen of that sharply? Even with his below average defensive, Johnny has been so good with the bat that he projects to be worth $14.8M over the course of the season, comfortably more than the $13M he's making.

Damon's already knocked 22 homers this year, just two off his career high. True, 15 of those have come at home and every one has been to right field, but that's not an inherently bad thing. If the Yanks sign him again next year he'll be playing half of his games in the same park.

With Hideki Matsui likely moving on after this season, the Yanks won't have someone plugging up the DH slot who can't play another position. The Yanks have stated that they want to keep that position open to be able to rest other position players, which keeps the line up flexible, but Damon is still a somewhat competent left fielder, even if he doesn't rebound next year. His bat more than makes up for his defensive short-comings.

From his comments in Kepner's story, it's safe to say that Damon will be looking for at least 2 years. Should the Yanks bring him back for 2 years/$20M? Would that be enough? Who is going to give him more than that? Given the way the New Stadium plays, it seems that he would be worth more to the Yanks than anyone else. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Cash & Co. cut ties with Damon, but if they keep him around, I wouldn't be surprised to see him lift another twenty-something homers over the short porch in right field next year, either.

Game 64: U.S. Blues

Washington: First in war, first in peace, last in the American League.

That was the old line about the first and second MLB franchises to call our nation's capital home. The Washington Senators v1.0 (1901-1960) and v2.0 (1961-1971) were a perrenial second division team. In 60 years, the first version managed just three pennants and a single World Championship, despite playing in an eight team league. After the original Senators skipped town to become the Minnesota Twins, the expansion Senators finished last four times and second-to-last three times as they compiled ten losing records in eleven seasons before becoming the Texas Rangers.

Other than the league, not much has changed since the Montreal Expos became the Washington Nationals in 2005. The Nats finished at .500 in 2005, good for their best record thus far, but also good for last place in the NL East that year. Since then, they've posted records of 71-91, 73-89, and 59-102, rising as high as fourth place in 2007.

Tonight, they enter their series with the Yankees at 16-45, playing .262 ball and nearly matching the historically bad pace set by the 1962 New York Mets (40-120, .250). At their current pace, they would have the sixth worst winning percentage since the dawn of the twentieth century.

The franchise is in total disarray. In March, Jim Bowden, General Manager and former Yankee front office employee, resigned in disgrace amid allegations of illegally skimming the signing bonuses of Latin American prospects. The most remarkable part of his four year reign of terror was that he acquired a lot of players he used to have in Cincinnati. Good for you Jim.

In the dugout, manager Manny Acta is day-to-day. Not as in injured, as in employed. Various reports are circulating that it's a matter of when, not if, he'll be fired. It may well come during this series, and Acta may well just stay in New York. I agree with Pete Abe that Acta will be the Mets' manager by the start of next year at the latest. Jerry Manuel's act, like K-Rod's, is getting tired. Acta was a coach with the Mets before taking the Nats' job, and he is still thought highly of wthin the organization.

On the field, the Nats are actually swinging the bats well. As a team, they're hitting .259/.344/.410 and all three marks are above the NL averages of .257/.333/.405. On the mound however, it's another story. The Nats are last in the NL in runs per game, ERA, WHIP, H/9, BB/9, and K/BB, and by a significant margin in most of those categories. Opponents are hitting .279/.362/.451 against them, dead last in BA and OBP against, and second to last in SLG, trailing Philly's bandbox staff by just 0.004.

The fire sale will start soon. Everyone save for Ryan Zimmerman is available. There's not much to pick at on the pitching staff: Ron Villone may be a good LOOGY for someone; John Lannan is too young and left-handed to come cheaply. They do have some bats to deal: Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, and former Yankee farm hands Christian Guzman and Nick Johnson. Rumors say Nick the Stick could find himself back in New York with the Mets or back in the AL East with Boston. Regardless of whatever haul the Nats pull for these parts, it's going to be a years-long road back to respectability, even if Stephen Strasburg proves to be everything Scott Boras says he is.

So with ace CC Sabathia taking the mound tonight against Shairon Martis and his career 84 ERA+, this should be a slam dunk. Which is exactly why I'm worried, particularly with CMW slated to go tomorrow. They need to beat up on the pitcher with a lady's name tonight.

Brian Bruney will be activated for tonight's game. If Tomko is DFA'd I'll be overjoyed; if Veras is I'll be satisfied. But if David Robertson finds his way back to Scranton I'm going to lose it.

Enjoy the game, and the vintage video below.



Back-to-back chicken shack
Son of gun better change your act
We're all confused. What's to lose?
You can call this song the United States Blues

A Sinking Feeling

We're a bit late to the party on this one, as it's already appeared on both RAB and Deadspin amongst other places I'm sure. ESPN's excitable, squeeky-voiced Tim Kurkjian has an article on the senior thesis of former Yankee pitcher Ross Ohlendorf, which examined the return on investment Major League clubs realized on the signing bonuses they issued. With the amateur draft concluding yesterday it's an interesting and timely read. Ohlie is Princeton educated, so this ain't no joke. Given his excitability and love of numbers, I'm surprised Kurjian's head didn't explode putting the article together.

I liked Ohlendorf and thought he would carve out a decent little career with the Yanks. I felt they misused him last year, as he became the de facto long man when they opened the season without one. Once he was demoted to Scranton and put back in the rotation, you knew they were showcasing him as tradebait. Sure enough he was a key cog in the deal that brought Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte.

There's been much talk of late of Alfredo Aceves as the new Ramiro Mendoza, and in a way I can see it. Alf's versatility is very valuable in much the same way it was for Mendoza. Both could spot start, serve as a long man, or get you out of a jam. Last night's hiccup nothwithstanding, Alf has been very good this year and there are no Yankee relievers not named "Mo" who I trust more at present.

But Mendoza had another weapon that made him valuable as a reliever: his bowling ball sinker. Mendoza could be brought into a mid-inning jam, and if he was on, he was one pitch, one groundball, and one double play away from getting out of it. Over his career Mendoza got 1.67 groundouts per air outs, compared to the league average of 1.08 over that time (Aceves checks in slightly below league average in his brief career). El Brujo induced 83 GiDPs in his career, 44 of them out of the pen, and seven of those against the first batter he faced. I thought Ohlendorf could have similar success, but it never materialized.

So, other than to fill space, why do I bring this all up now? Because as I mentioned yesterday, I'm at a total loss about what to do with Chien-Ming Wang. The team has already announced that he will make another start Wednesday. I'm not suggesting that he should be made a reliever now. I don't know what to do with him. But I wonder if his sinker could aid in him being an asset out of the pen. Of course, if he wasn't having problems with keeping his sinker down right now I wouldn't even be pondering this.

Ohlie's thesis essentially says that on average, teams realize a 60% return on their investment in a drafted player. I can't even fathom what kind of performance the Nationals would have to get out of Stephen Strasburg to get that kind of return on the dollar amounts Scott Boras is tossing around.

Game 21: Detroit Medley

The rubber match of the Motown Showdown goes down tonight as the Yankees look to climb back over .500. Like Phil Hughes did last night, Joba Chamberlain will get a chance to remind everyone why he should be in the rotation. I think Joba should be a starter until injuries or ineffectiveness prove otherwise. Having too many good starting pitchers is a good problem to have. And that's all I have to say, about that. 

Toeing the rubber for the Tigers tonight is a lanky 20 year old righthander named Rick Porcello. For those unfamiliar, Porcello was a high school phenom who entered the 2007 draft and was projected to go in the top five picks, with some forecasts placing him as high as number two. His senior year at Seton Hall Prep in New Jersey included a perfect game, a 14.7K/9IP ratio and he was named the Gatorade National Baseball Player Of The Year. 

Porcello chose Scott Boras, and as a result, concerns of signability allowed the Tigers to draft him with the 27th overall pick, just three slots ahead of where the Yankees drafted Andrew Brackman. His total contract was worth over $11M, making him the highest paid high school prospect ever. After spending only one year in High A-Ball, Porcello is already in the Big Show. While he had a solid 2.66ERA in the minors, his strikeout ratio dipped to just 5.2/9IP. Clearly, the Tigers felt pressured by the massive contract they extended to him, along their lack of depth in the starting rotation, to give Porcello some Big League burn. 

So far this year, he has made three starts. Sandwiched between two outings where he gave up 4 and 5 earned runs respectively, Porcello threw seven innings of one run ball against the Mariners last Sunday. By far the youngest starting pitcher in baseball at the moment, just over two decades old, Porcello makes a 23 year old Joba Chamberlain look like a seasoned veteran. 

I must extend a special thank you to local Springsteen Aficionado, Schiff Happens for tonight's song selection. In honor of Jersey boy Rick Porcello, from The Boss, here is a version of Detroit Medley from the '78 Tour, which I have been assured was epic. 

Some Sensitive Subjects

[For those familiar with the site, I am dropping the typical weekend morning header, for reasons that will be very apparent in about two seconds]

Almost every other blog I read that covers baseball had something on the passing of Nick Adenhart. We would have put a post up as well, but it didn't seem right. None of us knew him and he wasn't on any of our teams. That didn't stop so many others from doing so, and I think that speaks volumes about the sports blogging community and about human nature in general. No one had to send out an email and tell people they should put something up. Most just took it upon themselves to pay tribute to a incredibly talented kid who caught the worst break possible. It kind of destroyed that whole "blogs are mean spirited" cliche.

Most of us never would have met Nick. More than likely, the only way we would have laid eyes on him was when he the Angels came to town and he toed the rubber. But yet, there was still an overwhelming outpouring of support for those who did actually know him. As heartbreaking and painful as death is, it unites people. At every wake or funeral, a few people who had relatively brief or just passing encounters with the departed usually show up and pay their respects.

I think when we saw the headline Thursday morning, we all had the same emotions and reactions. Shock, sorrow, disbelief, empathy, a frog in your throat? Maybe I'm just soft, but there was one in mine. I don't care how much you hate Scott Boras, if watching him try to speak at that press conference wasn't a humanizing moment, you have no soul.

I can't decide if this is a good or bad thing, but the reason that so many people were touched by this was that, in some sense, he was a celebrity. If you are a baseball fan, he was a minor character in your life. He even had a tragic sounding name that could have been plucked from a Shakespearean play. There were two other people who died in that car, but many of the articles didn't even mention their names. If you read what Matt Clapp at Sharipova's Thigh wrote, you would know one of them.

Matt delivered a heartfelt tribute to his best friend, Henry Pearson, who was also killed that night. If you haven't yet, click through and give it a read. It will make you think about your own best friend and realize how unique your relationship is. I found myself hoping that if I ever have to write a piece like that, it won't be for a very long time.

The way it happened almost isn't important anymore, but it's worth noting that they were hit by a car that ran a red light. What the fuck are the odds of two vehicles traveling at a fairly high rate of speed meeting at an intersection in such a forceful collision? If someone forgot their cell phone before they left or some other random thing, it never would have happened.

Of course if the other driver hadn't been drunk it almost certainly wouldn't have happened either. Living in Manhattan, thankfully drunk driving doesn't even enter the equation. It used to though, when I lived in a place where people couldn't just hop in the next cab and give the driver their cross streets. The same goes for Joba Chamberlain, one would imagine.

While watching that video on the Smoking Gun, the one thing that absolutely astonished me was that he had an open bottle of Crown Royal sitting on the passenger's seat. If that had come out when the intial reports of his arrest were published, I'm guessing there would have been a far greater public outcry. There's a difference between drinking and driving and drinking while driving.

Even the staunchest opponents to drunk driving would agree that after having one beer at a backyard BBQ or two glasses of wine at a fundraiser, it's okay to drive. The point being that .08 BAC (or whatever it is in your state) is an arbitrary number. There is some gray area. Most people have probably been in the car with someone who was technically over the limit, but you still trusted implicitly that they did not have their ability to operate the vehicle impaired.

No matter how many tragic drunk driving stories there are out there, people are still going to roll the dice. The fact of the matter is that are some people who, if they think they are capable of driving, are going to get behind the wheel no matter how stiff the consequences are. I'm not saying that is okay, but it's just one of those things you can't legislate. Alcohol impairs your judgement long before it impairs your ability to drive.

Me saying "don't drink and drive" isn't going to change what happens at 1:30AM tomorrow morning when one of you is trying to rationalize getting behind the wheel. The only thing I can say is "think about it". If you get in an accident, it may or may not involve someone else, but it fucking surely will involve you.

[As the headline implies, these are issues that hit close to home for a lot of people. As always, my email is on the side of the site, and I will reply.]

Looking Ahead

Trying to make sense of Matt Holliday's home/road splits yesterday got me thinking about next offseason already. After this year, the Yankees are going to be in the market for some outfielders. The contracts for Xavier Nady, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui will all be expiring, leaving Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, Melky Cabrera and possibly Austin Jackson if he makes some serious strides through the minors.

Those remaining all represent some pretty serious question marks. As a Yankee fan, I'd like to think that Swisher is due for a bounce back since his stats took a serious dip last year in what is ostensibly his prime (age 27) and had a BABIP of .249. Brett Gardner may be off to a nice start this Spring, but let's not forget that in 127 Major League AB's last year he had a line of .228/.283/.299, good for a 53 OPS+. In a year when Melky was supposed to step forward, he fell back significantly. Austin Jackson is still only a prospect, so planning around him being MLB-ready to start the 2010 season is quite foolhardy.

Back in December, Tim at MLBTR compiled a list of the free agents to be in 2010. I whittled it down to the most intriguing options, in my opinion. (The Scarlet B represents a Boras client)

Centerfield Options
Rick Ankiel (30) - B
Coco Crisp (30) - $8MM club option with a $500K buyout

Unless the market turns around Crisp won't have his option picked up the the Royals, but I'd rather have Count Chocula or Tony the Tiger playing CF. Ankiel represents the Boras Dilemma. If he has a great year, his price tag will be astronomical, if he has an average one, you aren't going to be too excited about getting him anyway.

I think we have to hope that either Jackson or Gardner pan out for that spot. They are both solid defensively, which is tremendously important, but they will have to prove that they can hit Major League pitching before I get excited about either of them manning center field.

Now, the Corner Outfield Options.

• Carl Crawford (28) - $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
• Jason Bay (31)

I really, really, really like Carl Crawford, aside from his production (or lack thereof due to a torn tendon in his hand) last year. Each year from 2004-07 he had 11 or more HRs, from 46-59 stolen bases, and averaged almost 15 triples (!) per year. The Rays have a pretty well-stocked farm system and it wouldn't be all that shocking if they didn't spring for his $10M option. More on that here (from before Fack Youk's pre-Black & White borrowed picture policy).

I get the feeling the Red Sox will sign Jason Bay before the season is over, but if they don't, I hope the Yankees take serious interest. He gets slept on because he spent most of his career with the Pirates, but look at his numbers. He had a down year in '07, but the guy can hit.


More Boras Dilemmas:

1. Matt Holliday (30) B
2. Xavier Nady (31) B
3. Johnny Damon (36) B

Pass. Pass. Pass.


The Old, the Expensive and the Defensively Incompetent:

1. Bobby Abreu (36)
2. Jermaine Dye (36) - $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
3. Vladimir Guerrero (34)
4. Manny Ramirez (38) - $20MM player option B
5. Magglio Ordonez (36) - $15MM club/vesting option with a $3MM buyout

Part of me would love to see one of these guys DH'ing, but the other knows that with the Yanks aging rapidly, there will be guys who need a break from playing the field from time to time. Is it worth overpaying for a top of the line hitter when their presence is going to take Jorge out of his rhythm when he has to ride the pine when he's not manning the dish? Maybe not.

Doing Splits

I don't play fantasy baseball, but I would like to give you some advice if you do.

Let someone else draft Matt Holliday.

I'm guessing there is some sucker in your league that is going to have their perception skewed by his 2nd place finish in the 2007 NL MVP voting or Woody Paige's homeristic knob slobbery. Perhaps they remember the play at the plate in the 13th inning against the Padres in the 163rd game of the '07 season and subsequent World Series run and snatch him up in the first round. Unfortunately for them, he will now be hitting in the spacious McAfee Coliseum which would harm any hitter's offensive production, let alone someone with Holliday's home/road splits.

If you are a fan of any team with money to spend in the 2010 offseason, you may want to pay attention to this as well, because he will be a free agent (represented by Scott Boras) next year.

Five years is a pretty damn large sample size and those differences are staggering. I can see a player's slugging percentage varying dramatically from home to away based on the dimensions and conditions of other parks, but his average and OBP are both far lower away from Coors. As friend of the blog Simon said on GChat yesterday, he's is like Manny Ramirez at home and Xavier Nady on the road. Look at those guys' stats. He's dead on.

The good news for Holliday owners and A's fans is that his numbers on the road have continually improved throughout his career. Although he didn't have a particularly good year in 2008, his splits were the least dramatic of his five years in the league. That was both a function of his home numbers dropping (especially slugging) and his road numbers getting better.

On other astonishing nugget I found along while perusing his Baseball Reference pages was that his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .324 on the road, which is well above the league average (+/- .290). But at home... it's .382. Wow.

(Chart via FanGraphs)

That's not a single season fluke. That took place over the course of 5 seasons and almost 350 games. Granted, the better a hitter is, the better his BABIP will be, given that the ball comes off the bat of the best players the hardest, making it more difficult to field. That said, Manny Ramirez's career BABIP is .344, Albert Puljos's is .323 and A-Rod's is .327. Holliday's overall is .356.

Coors Field installed a humidor in 2002 to counteract the effects of altitude, but it appears as though BABIP is skewed higher in Denver. Todd Helton has a pretty significant home/away BABIP split (.358 to .313). Garrett Atkins (.351 to .279) and Troy Tulowitski (.330 to .302) do too.

It should be interesting to watch Holliday this season, and as fans of AL teams, we will have a few chances to do so. I'm still a little dumbfounded by these numbers, but all signs point to the former Rockie falling off this year with out the assistance of altitude. One thing is for sure though, no matter what happens, Scott Boras is going to be demanding way too much for him next offseason.