Thrifty Red Sox Finally Land Another Third Baseman

In what can only be described as another brilliant bargain basement signing, the always-frugal Boston Red Sox signed Adrian Beltre to a one year, $9M contract with a $5M player option for 2011. The deal, which also includes a $1M buyout, comfortably lifts the scrappy small town underdogs over the luxury tax threshold.

Beltre apparently came down a bit from his initial contract demands of 5 years and $65M which was analogous to me applying for a job and asking for the corner office, a secretary and a wet bar. He settled for a temp job in a cubicle with easy access to the water cooler. However, what the deal sacrifices in luxury, it attempts to make up for in flexibility. It offers Beltre the chance to redeem himself coming off a miserable year in which he hit .265/.304/.379 and played in only 111 games, missing significant time due to a... um... well... how do I say this... an injury.

The Sox are banking on last year being an anomaly and Beltre's defensive abilities being all they are cracked up to be, which is to say pretty damn impressive. His average UZR/150 over the last 4 years has been 12.3, which makes up for the fact that his on-base percentage over that same time period has been .321.

While Beltre supposedly turned down longer deals worth more money from other teams let's wait and see how it turns out before declaring it a "steal" or anything of the sort like I sarcastically did in the first paragraph. Fire Brand of the American League lists his home/road splits over the last three years to show that his production was suppressed by playing in Seattle:

2007: (H) .264/.319/.426 (R) .288/.320/.538
2008: (H) .230/.303/.400 (R) .292/.349/.512
2009: (H) .250/.283/.364 (R) .279/.324/.393

But do you notice another trend? His slugging percentage has been declining over the past three years regardless of where he was hitting.

Oh, and there's also the small consideration of Mike Lowell's contract which the Sox will either have to eat or exchange him for a player equally as useless/overpaid. They could hold on to him but given that both he and Beltre are right handed, there's no platoon option. I suppose he could be a fall back DH if Ortiz struggles again, but that's a waste of a roster spot.

The signing of Beltre certainly makes the Sox better next year, but how many teams can afford to replace a player that was making $12M this coming season (and who should be able to play come opening day) with a guy who is making $9M?

The spendthrift ways of last season have been jettisoned in favor of big budget acquisitions in Boston this year. Apparently the items on the sale rack weren't all they were cracked up to be.

Digging Out From The Weekend

Good morning Fackers. Hopefully you have managed to shovel yourself out from the storm that buried much of the East Coast throughout the day on Saturday and into Sunday morning. Since it was the last weekend for people to roam the malls in search of Christmas gifts, retailers are predictably acting like they were just held up at gunpoint.

The Bears and Ravens ended up playing in Baltimore despite the fact that the Bears were stuck in Chicago until late Saturday night and M&T Bank Stadium being covered with almost two feet of the white stuff. The Ravens claimed it cost them almost $500,000 to remove all of it. According to the Redskins they've employed 1,200 workers to relocate the 25 million pounds of snow on FedEx Field before the Giants and Redskins play tonight.

Unfortunately, the storm didn't manage to put a damper on the opening weekend for that movie with the blue people that I refuse to name, which has been annoying us with their contrived promotions for two fucking months. Is there no justice in this world?

In baseball news, after waiting more than a week for Mike Lowell to take a physical for the Rangers, the Red Sox saw the trade that would have sent him and $9M to Texas in exchange for catching prospect Max Ramirez fall through. Lowell failed that physical because it indicated that the third baseman will need surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb. Recovery time is supposed to be 6-8 weeks and he should be ready for Spring Training in some capacity, but D.J. Short over at Circling the Bases thinks the Red Sox are pissed at Lowell, even if they aren't saying it:

...You have to understand how frustrated the Red Sox are with Lowell for not having the problem addressed sooner. Not only because of the nixed trade, but what might have happened had the Red Sox stayed with the status quo. Lowell likely wouldn't have had the thumb examined during the offseason at all had Texas not tentatively agreed to a trade. They have every reason to be be furious with Lowell, even if they will say otherwise publicly.

Lowell's injury also devastates his trade value when the Sox are finally able to move him. Even if the Sox are willing to eat $9M of his contract, almost every team is going to have committed to another option at third base by then. Furthermore, although the injury isn't assumed to be very serious, teams are likely to be skeptical that he will make a full recovery.

This turn of events has left the Sox in a very difficult spot. The easiest thing to do would be penciling in the Youkstah at 3B and allowing Casey Kotchman to man first. But over the past three years, Kotchman has been only league average at first base, hitting .279/.346/.421 (101 OPS+) in 1521 plate appearances. They could venture into the free agent market to find another third baseman, but it falls steeply after Adrian Beltre to guys like Joe Crede, Melvin Mora and Mike Lamb. Do they overspend to cover their asses for this year, or take their chances that Lowell can be productive at the plate and his defense will rebound from last year? Neither of those are very appealing options.

Lowell was signed for $37.5M over 3 years after his World Series MVP and hasn't played more than 120 games or been significantly better than league average offensively in either of the first two seasons of the deal. The third one doesn't look a whole lot better.

Replacing A World Series MVP [Part II]

Yesterday, Matt noted that for the third time since 1996, the Yankees will have to evaluate whether or not to retain a World Series MVP who is heading into free agency. In 1996, they opted to let John Wetteland walk in favor of an up-and-coming closer named Mariano Rivera. However, they decided to keep Scott Brosius after their legendary 1998 campaign instead of turning to Mike Lowell, who had just posted two excellent minor league seasons, the majority of which came at AAA.

Interestingly, 11 years later, Mike Lowell found himself playing the role of Brosius for the 2007 Red Sox with frightening accuracy. Lowell had a standout year at the plate that was driven by a batting average well above his career mark, played excellent defense at 3rd while putting up an OPS+ in the 120's, made the All-Star team, and drove in exactly 15 runs in the postseason en route to a team championship and a World Series MVP.

Membahs of Rex Sawx Nation were all, "Aw, you've gotta resign Mikey Lowell. Dood is fackin' moooooney!" And, yes, some people (presumably a group of 7th graders) even started a petition, which included this gem:

These statistics show that Mike Lowell has elevated his game since his coming to Boston. In the perspective of Red Sox Nation, he has been the team MVP the entire 2007 season. He delivered for the team when the team needed something big to happen. Mike Lowell has been "a clutch player" this entire season.

However, this past post-season, he has taken things to another level.

[cites 2007 postseason stats]

So how did Mike Lowell's incredible postseason carry over into the 3 year, $36M contract he signed with the Sox? What of his "Bostonian Game Elevation" and "Clutch Player-ing"?

Since the beginning of the 2008 season, Lowell has hit only slightly above league average for a third baseman, played no more than 110 games in either season at 3rd base, underwent hip surgery, watched his defensive skills erode and oh by the way, kind of sucked in the playoffs.

So what of Hideki Matsui, who finds himself in a similar situation this year? Matsui won't be looking for a deal anywhere near as long, and didn't even play defense this year, but both are older players coming off surprisingly strong offensive seasons, punctuated by productive postseasons and, of course, the WS MVPs.

Yesterday, Brian Cashman came right out and said that he wasn't going to be influenced by what Matsui (or Johnny Damon) did in the playoffs when it comes to deciding whether or not to hold onto them this offseason:

We’re thankful for the guys who did what they did, and if you had a great postseason, terrific.

What they are when they went into October, that’s what they still are, regardless of how good or how poor they played in the postseason.

I know Matt advocated bringing Hideki Matsui back yesterday (not because of his postseason, obviously), but I'm on the other side of this debate. There are certainly going to be offensive losses involved with giving Posada, A-Rod, Jeter and Damon days off by DH'ing them, but there will also be defensive upgrades. I believe those players are going to need the days off and having to sit Matsui by no fault of his own will make it more difficult for Joe Girardi to give guys adequate rest, regardless of how professional Matsui is about it. And if he's on he bench in 1/3 or 1/2 of the games, how effective will Matsui be when he finally gets to the plate?

Matsui's knees have become a nagging problem and he needed to have them drained multiple times throughout the season. They have already turned him into a full-time DH so I think it's fair to wonder how long it will be before they total kill his baserunning skills and begin to sap his offensive power as well.

He was a great hitter and a consummate professional in his time with the Yankees, but I think it's time to say "sayonara" to Godzilla and send him off on the highest possible note. Thanks for the memories, Hideki.

Replacing A World Series MVP

For third time in their last five championship off seasons, the Yankees will have a World Series MVP entering free agency.

In 1996, closer John Wetteland took home the hardware, appearing in 5 games, saving all four Yankee wins, and striking out 6 while posting a 2.08 ERA in 4.1 innings of work. Just 30 years old, Wetteland's contract expired following the season. The Yankees had absolutely stolen him from the Expos prior to the '95 season and he spent two memorable years as the Yankee closer. He recorded 74 saves in those two seasons, and his other stats were even more impressive: 167 ERA+, 1.03 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.86 K:BB.

Yet, Wetteland didn't inspire a sense of confidence. Despite his impressive numbers, he always seemed to be walking a tightrope in the ninth inning, blowing 10 saves over the two years. He absolutely melted down in the 1995 Division Series, to the point that Buck Showalter wouldn't even use him in the deciding Game Five, instead allowing an exhausted David Cone to be relieved by an exhausted Jack McDowell, and by Wetteland's eventual replacement.

With Mariano Rivera turning in an astounding 1996 as Wetteland's set up man, the Yankees allowed their closer to walk, bequeathing the role of closer to Mo. The rest is history. Wetteland signed a four year, $23M contract with the Rangers, where he continued to excel as one of the league's best closers until back injuries forced him to retire following the 2000 season.

Two years later the Yankees found themselves in a similar predicament. Scott Brosius won the 1998 World Series MVP on the strength of his .471 showing with two huge home runs in Game Three, including a three run shot off Trevor Hoffman in the eighth inning, erasing the final lead the Padres held in that Series.

Unlike Wetteland, Brosius came to the Yankees almost as an afterthought. After two miserable seasons in New York, the Yankees were able to unload Kenny Rogers on Oakland following the '97 season for a player to be named later. Eleven days after the initial deal, the clubs agreed on Brosius, who was coming off a dismal .203/.259/.317 (53 OPS+) season. Perhaps the Yankees thought he could recreate the success he enjoyed in '95-'96 (.284/.369/.486 121 OPS+), but if nothing else the Yankees were rid of Rogers and had picked up a player who could be in the mix to replace the Wade Boggs/Charlie Hayes tandem at third base and was versatile enough to see time at shortstop and all three outfield positions.

Brosius went on to have a career year in the magical 1998 season, hitting .300/.371/.472 (121 OPS+) and driving in 98 runs while batting primarily eighth or ninth. He strong performance coupled with his historic showing in the World Series prompted the Yankees to re-sign Brosius to a three year $15.75M contract, despite the fact that he was 32 years old and the Yankees had Mike Lowell ready to take over. Lowell would be 25 come next Opening Day and had hit .304/.355/.535 with 26 HR and 99 RBI at AAA, a year after hitting .315/.401/.562 with 30 HR and 92 RBI.

With Brosius in tow for another three years, the Yankees flipped Lowell to the Marlins for three minor league pitchers, one of whom never appeared in the Bigs, one of whom never made it to the Bronx, and who pitched a combined 44 innings in the Majors. Brosius wouldn't come close to replicating his 1998 numbers for the remainder of his career. As likable as Brosius was, as good as his 1998 season was, as big as his HRs were in the '98 and '01 Series, electing to keep him over Lowell was a mistake.

Eleven years later, the Yankees face a somewhat similar situation with Hideki Matsui. Unlike Wetteland and Brosius, Matsui is not a new comer, being the most tenured Yankee outside of the "core four". He's 35, considerably older than both Wetteland and Brosius at the time of their WS MVPs. Unlike with Wetteland and Brosius, the Yankees don't have a young replacement waiting in the wings. Jesus Montero is still seen as a catcher and is still likely a year away; Juan Miranda has posted good numbers at AAA but doesn't project to carry his weight as a Major League DH.

Given that Matsui is strictly a designated hitter at this point, the Yankees do have some additional flexibility in that they don't have to have a direct replacement for him, but his offense (.274/.367/.509, 128 OPS+) will be difficult to replace no matter what they do.

Retrospective hindsight says the Yankees went 1 for 2 the last times they faced such a decision. Time will tell how they fare this time around.

CC, Cano Steal The Show

The Yankee offense put sixteen runners on base over the course of this afternoon. Yankee pitching allowed just two hits, two walks, and two hitbatsmen. Yet, today's game still managed to be a typical three plus hour Yankee-Red Sox nail biter.

The reason for that was that the Yankees left eleven runners on base and went 1 for 15 with runners in scoring position. That one hit didn't come until the bottom of the eighth, and it provided some needed insurance for what proved to be a tense ninth inning.

CC Sabathia was masterful on the hill: perfect through three and two thirds, a no hitter through four, and just four baserunners allowed while fanning eight through seven shutout innings on just 96 pitches. Yet he wasn't in position for the win until his final frame.

When Robinson Cano came to the plate leading off the sixth inning, it seemed as if his season long troubles with runners in scoring position had rubbed off on his teammates. Through five innings, the Yankees had put 10 runners on base and had left nine of them there, the tenth being erased on a batter's obstruction call against Alex Rodriguez. Of the nine men left on base, seven were left in scoring position. The inning before, the Yankees loaded the bases with no one out, then went down in order without striking out but without plating a run.

With the score still knotted at zero, Cano gave the Yanks the lead they had failed to grab so many times, as he put a 1-1 pitch over the left field wall for his 24th home run of the season.

After Phil Hughes worked a perfect eighth in relief of CC, with some help from a brilliant defensive play by Mark Teixeira, the Yankees added two insurance runs in the eighth using some daring base running from Brett Gardner, a lucky break on a run down, and a broken bat bloop two run single from Johnny Damon.

Mariano Rivera closed it out in the ninth, but not before Victor Martinez ran his hitting streak to 25 games and Kevin Youkilis became the fourth hit batsmen of the game, forcing Mo to face Mike Lowell as the potential tying run. Lowell fanned, giving the Yankees the series win and dropping the magic number to one.

We'll be back tomorrow afternoon as the Yankees go for the sweep, attempt to keep the Red Sox from clinching a post-season berth at Yankee Stadium, and attempt to clinch the AL East for themselves.

Wrapping It Up For The Weekend

Sorry Fackers. Like Jay, I'm heading out for a little weekend trip to the heart of enemy territory, so things are going to be a bit sparse around here. We'll have previews, maybe recaps, maybe scattered updates. But don't count on too much.

That also means that even though last night's game marked the two thirds point of the season, we won't be doing our usual extrapolations and ZIPS. Sorry math geeks. If you have a third grade education you should be able to figure out how to do the extrapolations on your own. For the ZIPS projections, check out the awesome fangraphs.com

Before I go, here are a few Sox related thoughts:

During the series in Boston in June, I posted a recap of the Sox off-season moves compared to the those of the Yankees. Though lauded in the media, they haven't been too great. Smoltz is pitching like he has a giant fork sticking out of his back, Kotsay was DFA's then traded, Bard was released before the season started, Penny's been so-so, Baldelli's on his second DL stint, and Varitek will now be losing playing time to Victor Martinez.

I was a little perplexed by the Sox deadline moves - particularly the quick flip of LaRoche for Casey Kotchman. They way I figured it, Youkilis, Kotchman, Lowell, Martinez, Varitek, and Lowell would all be fighting for playing time amongst the corners, catcher, and DH. Last night's line up may have given some insite into their thought process. With Jason Bay sidelined with a sore hammy, Youk was in leftfield. Youkilis made 18 OF apperances in 2006, but has played less than 9 innings out there since. And left field in Yankee Stadium is far different than catching caroms off the Monster.

I wonder though, if J.D. Drew continues to struggle, might the Sox give Youk more time in the OF to get the other bats in at first and third? Time will tell, but from my vantage point in the upper deck last night, Youkilis didn't look too comfortable out in left. He was continually short-arming his throws like an infielder as well. But it speaks volumes as to the guy's versatility that he was able to that. Fack him anyway.

I was a bit surprised that Francona left former Yankee Billy Traber out there for so long. It was the equivalent of waving the white flag. Given the way the Yanks swung the bats it may have been the smart move, but seemed to be in stark contrast to the all-in look of the initial line up, i.e. Youkilis in left.

Lastly, I'm extremely interested to see what comes out of the David Ortiz press conference tomorrow. I realize it's convenient for the union to address this now since they're based in NYC, but it can't the wisest move for Ortiz to do this right in the thick of a critical series against the Yankees, in New York. You knwo the tabloids are going to be hanging on every word like a pack of hungry dogs.

That's it until the preview folks. Enjoy your Friday.