Game 1: Revival

Baseball starts tonight. We celebrate the milestones that line the path to this point like pitchers and catchers reporting and follow along with the "competitions" and roster cuts during Spring Training, but that stuff is only enjoyable because of what it all leads up to. This.

It's been five cold, dark and lonely months since Robinson Cano fielded a routine grounder from Shane Victorino, flipped it to Mark Teixeira at first base and converted the final out of the 2009 World Series. While 151 days is a pretty long time, we Yankee fans have relatively little to complain about; this was a very short offseason in the grand scheme of things, particularly when compared to the break between 2008 and 2009.

The Yanks were pretty much dead to rights with a month left in the '08 season, floated lifelessly through September and cleared out their lockers by the time the postseason had begun. The organization moved swiftly and compensated by snatching up three major free agents in CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeria. However, the ensuing winter was tainted by excerpts from Joe Torre's book, backlash surrounding the opening of the New Yankee Stadium and most of all, A-Rod's steroid use and hip surgery.

By now, most fans have forgotten what was contained in The Yankee Years and accepted the New Stadium for what it is. A-Rod recovered in time to contribute significantly during the regular season and damn near carry the team through the playoffs. The three newest Yankees have already captured their first World Series ring.

Coming off a 103 win season and a World Championship, this winter was significantly less maddening for supporters of the Bronx Bombers. The franchise said goodbye to two solid veterans who played crucial roles in the Fall Classic (Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui), along with their best homegrown pitcher in the past decade (Chien-Ming Wang). But they made some significant additions as well. The Yanks welcomed back Nick Johnson, Javier Vazquez and Marcus Thames while bringing in newcomers Curtis Granderson and Chan Ho Park.

As we discussed with Patrick Sullivan on Thursday, the Red Sox were equally active this offseason. They signed John Lackey to a five year contract while picking up Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro on shorter deals, all with the primary benefit of run prevention. To that end, both teams shifted their young center fielders to left in favor of a newly acquired veteran, ensuring that it's going to be much more difficult to find the gap in left-center against either of these teams this season.

The first test of the new defenses will come tonight in the cozy quarters of Fenway Park. Amidst the rumors of an impending contract extension, Josh Beckett will take the mound for the Red Sox. The Sox' ace-in-name-only had a solid 2009, tallying up an 3.86 ERA over 212 IP with an even lower FIP of 3.63. He will look to build upon that campaign along with his strong effort in his final Spring Training start in which he struck out 8 Rays in six innings.

Unlike Beckett, whose numbers in April are align closely with his career averages, CC Sabathia is a notoriously slow starter; his ERA in April is almost a full run higher than it is in total (4.54 to 3.62). However, did you know that his ERA in July is ever higher (4.61)? Does that make him a slow "middler" or somesuch? No, in all likelihood, it means that Sabathia has stacked up some poor starts in those months that skew his overall numbers. And as they say in those commercials for ambulance-chasing law firms, "prior results don't guarantee similar future outcomes".

As Matt noted earlier, there's a beautiful symmetry in that the baseball season is beginning anew on Easter. Both events celebrate a joyous return. Each carries its own connotations of a new beginning.

From here on out, slowly but surely, the season will work its way into the record books, pitch by pitch and swing by swing. Hundreds upon hundreds of hours of entertainment; of ups and downs; of great plays and miscues; of pinch hits and pitching changes; of triumph and defeat are on the horizon. But we don't need to concern ourselves with that just yet. Tonight is a night to appreciate what's in store without having to worry about how it's going to turn out.

Baseball is back, Fackers.

People can you feel it? Love is everywhere.
People can you hear it? Love is in the air.
We're in a revolution, don't you know we're right.
Everyone is singing, there'll be no one to fight.
People can you feel it? Love is everywhere.

Lineups:

Yankees

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Johnson DH
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada C
Curtis Granderson CF
Nick Swisher RF
Brett Gardner LF

Red Sox

Jacoby Ellsbury LF
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Victor Martinez C

Kevin Youkilis 1B
David Ortiz DH
Adrian Beltre 3B
J.D. Drew RF
Mike Cameron CF
Marco Scutaro SS

*Feel free to leave some thoughts in the comments during the game and perhaps we can get a good conversation going.

Joel Sherman Uses Old Story To Drum Up New Drama

In Sherman's column in today's Post, he dusts off the story about Derek Jeter's belief that he was still a good defensive shortstop before he started special training to improve his range between the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Joel suggests that his "arrogance" as an athlete might lead to some contentious contract negotiations come November:

So Cashman took Jeter to dinner in Manhattan and told the Yankees captain that his side-to-side actions must improve. Jeter has an outsized athletic arrogance. He believes in himself completely, which allows him to deftly block out criticism and negativity. This trait enables him to thrive in the cauldron, but also prevents him from seeing personal shortcomings the way others perceive them. Still, to his credit, he agreed to try a new way.

With the Yankees paying the bills, Jeter enlisted Jason Riley, the director of performance at the Athletes Compound in Tampa. Riley formulated a plan to increase Jeter’s first-step quickness, particularly in fielding grounders to his left. Power lifting was diminished, agility — especially in the hips — was emphasized , weight was lost. The results came slowly at first in 2008 and in a wave last year when Jeter had one of his finest defensive seasons.

“The player Derek is, he took to it and said, ‘Watch, I will prove you wrong,’ ” Cashman said.

This story is instructive in anticipating how Jeter’s contract talks will play out when his 10-year, $189 million contract concludes after this season. First, like the Cashman-Jeter meeting remaining untold publicly until now, Jeter will demand that his negotiations are done privately. Second, the good news for the Yanks is that Jeter is a competent shortstop again; the bad news is he is a competent shortstop again.

If this story sounds familiar, that's because Ian O'Connor wrote about everything but the dinner meeting the day after the 2009 regular season ended. Does this dinner meeting tell us anything, as Sherman is trying to infer? How else was Cashman going to have this conversation with him? At the top of his lungs in the locker room? Whether it was in his office or at a restaurant, it was going to be a private and delicate discussion.

So this dinner anecdote leads Sherman to the following revelation: Derek Jeter would like to negotiate his contract in private. You know, unlike all the other baseball players who sit down and exchange numbers with their teams on live television.

Jeter's contract negotiations will be interesting and like Sherman says, made more difficult by the the shortstop's defensive renaissance. Both sides have a lot of leverage given that Jeter needs the Yankees just as much, if not more than they need him. But we already knew that Jeter's ego was going to make this difficult. I think the years of him refusing to acknowledge his deficiencies as a shortstop or change his position were a lot more informative than one dinner with Brian Cashman.

Debating the merits and estimating the size and length of Jeter's next deal are wholly futile at this point, despite the fact that this is a hotly debated topic and will be revisited ad naseum throughout the season.

How Jeter performs this year is going to go much further in shaping his next contract than any facts of the situation as they currently exist. If the Captain continues his excellent offensive production and is again solid at shortstop, the Yankees are going to be backing up the truck in a big way. If he struggles at the plate or in the field or God forbid, gets injured, the franchise isn't just going to give him a blank check.

Paradoxically, the better Jeter plays this year, the uglier the back end of his contract has the potential to look. Of course, we'd all "settle for" a great season and the resulting huge contract, but the best of both worlds scenario would be for Jeter to have a good but not great season and go back to being great in 2011. The first and foremost concern though, is Jeter's ability to stay productive in his later years, and unfortunately for the Yanks' checkbook, there is a direct relationship between the probability that he will continue to produce at an elite level and how much they are going to have to pay for the privilege of retaining his services.

Lackey And Vazquez

Even before John Lackey signed with the Red Sox for a deal nearly identical to the 5 year, $82.5M one that the Yankees gave A.J. Burnett a year prior, many saw the two as being very similar. Both pitchers are right handed, oft-injured about six and a half feet tall and around 30 years old with intimidating on-the-mound demeanors. Today, however, I wanted to compare Lackey to Javer Vazquez given their parallel entrance to the Yankees vs. Red Sox rivalry and their disparate reputations in regards to handling pressure.

Lackey has been in the league since 2002 and has averaged 188 innings per season since then. Over that same time period, Vazquez has averaged 215. Lackey's ERA is about a quarter of a run lower over stretch, but that's essentially erased by having to fill in those extra 27 innings a year with a replacement level pitcher.

In general, when John Lackey is healthy, he's a better pitcher than Javy Vazquez. But he's also the Red Sox highest paid player ($18M this year) and is expected to contribute to the top of their rotation. The Yankees are paying Vazquez only about 2/3 as much and hoping that he slots in as their number four.

But what about their reputations under pressure? The idea for that comparison between the two comes from fellow LoHud pinch hitter and editor at the Harvard Crimson, Yair Rosenberg. On Sunday, Yair dropped me an email with the following suggestion/request:

I think the more productive comparison for AL East purposes would not be to Pettitte or Glavine, but to Lackey, whose reputation is that of a big game pitcher, and who is essentially the corresponding addition to this year's Red Sox as Vasquez is to the Yankees. It would be really interesting to see if the stats bear out Lackey's clutch rep - and might go a long way towards predicting the key factors in the coming Yankees-Red Sox race. I'd love to see a post on that.

So here we go. Fighting in the red corner, we have John "Big Game" Lackey, the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the 2002 World Series and supposed consummate clutch performer as anointed by his former manager. In the blue corner is Javier "Can't Handle New York" Vazquez, the man responsible for one of the more infamous home runs in Yankee history, who was called out publicly by Ozzie Guillen for not stepping up when it counts.

There is no question as to who has the better postseason resume. Lackey was thrust into the spotlight at an early age, his team reaching the playoffs in his first season in the majors and asking him to start Game 7 of the World Series only four days after his 24th birthday. Since then, he's been back to the postseason 5 times and pitched a total of 78 innings to a 3.12 ERA.

Vazquez, on the other hand, was trapped on bad Expos teams (no offense, Jonah) for the first six years of his career, and didn't pitch during October until 2004. His performance in the postseason has been pretty dreadful (10.34 ERA), but he's only had a chance to throw 15 2/3 innings in the playoffs.

Do these reputations carry over into the regular season? Do their postseason resumes line up with how they handle pressure during games throughout the year? We know the answer to that question when it comes to Vazquez, as we have assessed his clutch reputation at length here and in other places.

That first and more in-depth inquiry into Vazquez's purported lack of clutchiferousness began with his FIP/ERA differential. Coincidentally, Lackey and Vazquez have identical 3.83 career FIPs. However, Lackey's career ERA is 3.81 while Vazquez's is 4.19. Leaving aside team defense - which would be very difficult to quantify over multiple years and teams - it's helpful to look at situational and leverage statistics when trying to explain FIP/ERA differentials.

There are some notable similarities between the Vazquez and Lackey in the chart to the right. Both pitch better with the bases empty than with runners on. They have similar tOPS+ distributions when the score of the game is within 4 runs.

Naturally, the biggest differences come in the smallest sample sizes. Lackey has done much better with the bases loaded than Vazquez and far worse when the game is out of hand.

Both Lackey's distributions are optimal and both are significant. If you could choose a situation to pitch your best in, it would be when the bases were loaded. If you had to give up runs, you would prefer to allow them when the margin of the game was greater than four runs. But there is a limit to how much these numbers can tell us. Lackey has only 141 plate appearances with the bases loaded while Vazquez has 163.

The sample sizes are larger for when the margin is greater than four (394 for Lackey, 811 for Vazquez) but those at bats are by definition less important. Lackey is obviously better in those situations, but not likely by as much as the numbers indicate.

What about the leverage index, though? While Lackey's numbers don't tell a coherent, progressive story like Vazquez's do, it's still clear that he pitches his worst in high leverage situations. Again, high leverage is based on the smallest sample size among the three levels, but each pitcher has over 1000 plate appearances to draw upon. So perhaps Lackey can't simply summon his best performances when the stakes increase.

If there was something about Lackey's internal constitution that gave him to ability to elevate his performance under pressure, wouldn't it show up in the leverage index? Shouldn't he be able to sense when the game is on the line and reach back for a little extra?

This contradiction begins to chip away not at Lackey's resume in particular but at the manufactured archetype of the "big game pitcher". It's one thing to have had good results in the postseason but it's another entirely to universally improve as the leverage increases. You can argue that the playoff results are more important, but Lackey has only faced 328 batters in postseason play. I think the regular season numbers tell us more.

While it may be convenient to label certain pitchers as big time performers and others as choke artists, they rarely fall neatly into one category or another. More correctly, there are players who have performed well in certain situations and others who have not.

As far as this season goes, it will be interesting to see who is better, Lackey or Vazquez. It's very likely that Lackey will have a lower ERA than Vazquez but based on their respective histories, Vazquez should be the better bet to throw more than 200 innings. However, perhaps this is the year that Vazquez's heroic workload over the past decade-plus catches up with him and it's also the first time in 3 years Lackey makes more than 30 starts.

Time will tell, but remember that the Yankees only need to get 2/3 the performance out of Vazquez to get as much value as the Sox do out of Lackey.

Reed Johnson Chooses Goatee Over The Yankees

Despite possessing some of the offensive and defensive skills that the Yankees were seeking to acquire with the last $2M they had to spend this offseason, the team was unable to come to terms with former Cub and Blue Jay Reed Johnson. The versatile outfielder instead chose to take less money from the Dodgers so that he could retain his trademark facial hair.

Johnson has been especially effective against left handed pitching over the course of his career, something that two of the three outfielders projected to start for the Yankees in 2010 are not. He also has the ability to defend all three outfield positions - and is particularly effective in the corners - a skill that the Yankees have placed increasing priority on in recent years. However, despite the fit from the Yankees' perspective, Johnson was unwilling to conform to the Yankees grooming policy which allows only well-trimmed mustaches and short sideburns and was introduced by George Steinbrenner shortly after his purchase of the team.

"Scrap these beautiful chin whiskers, brah?", Johnson rhetorically asked a female reporter for the AP. "I've been cultivating this righteous 'tee off and on since I came up with the Jays and I'm not about to shave it off to go play for the [expletive] Yankees".

This came as a surprise to Brain Cashman, who seemed flustered by Johnson's continued rebuffing of his advances. According to a source within the Yankee organization with knowledge of the negotiations, Cashman told Johnson that New York would be willing to offer him $1M with another $500K in incentives - significantly more than the other offers he had on the table. However, Johnson gave the Yankees an ultimatum that specified the team would need to double their offer or allow him to retain his goatee in order for him to sign. Cashman, along with Hal Steinbrenner, were neither willing to change the grooming policy nor offer Johnson twice as much in order to get him to shave.

Instead of signing Johnson, the Yankees were forced to make a $2M deal with Randy Winn, a switch hitter who struggled mightily against lefties last season and has a negligible platoon split over the course of his career. Winn sported a far neater goatee in San Francisco but was willing to part with it in order to become a member of the defending World Champions. Said Winn, "Chad Gaudin gave up that Amish-looking arrangement on his chin last year and look what it got him. A World Series ring, baby".

Brain Cashman refused to comment on Johnson's negotiating tactcs, saying only "We are happy with our deal with Randy [Winn] and we look forward to seeing him in Spring Training".

Thrifty Red Sox Finally Land Another Third Baseman

In what can only be described as another brilliant bargain basement signing, the always-frugal Boston Red Sox signed Adrian Beltre to a one year, $9M contract with a $5M player option for 2011. The deal, which also includes a $1M buyout, comfortably lifts the scrappy small town underdogs over the luxury tax threshold.

Beltre apparently came down a bit from his initial contract demands of 5 years and $65M which was analogous to me applying for a job and asking for the corner office, a secretary and a wet bar. He settled for a temp job in a cubicle with easy access to the water cooler. However, what the deal sacrifices in luxury, it attempts to make up for in flexibility. It offers Beltre the chance to redeem himself coming off a miserable year in which he hit .265/.304/.379 and played in only 111 games, missing significant time due to a... um... well... how do I say this... an injury.

The Sox are banking on last year being an anomaly and Beltre's defensive abilities being all they are cracked up to be, which is to say pretty damn impressive. His average UZR/150 over the last 4 years has been 12.3, which makes up for the fact that his on-base percentage over that same time period has been .321.

While Beltre supposedly turned down longer deals worth more money from other teams let's wait and see how it turns out before declaring it a "steal" or anything of the sort like I sarcastically did in the first paragraph. Fire Brand of the American League lists his home/road splits over the last three years to show that his production was suppressed by playing in Seattle:

2007: (H) .264/.319/.426 (R) .288/.320/.538
2008: (H) .230/.303/.400 (R) .292/.349/.512
2009: (H) .250/.283/.364 (R) .279/.324/.393

But do you notice another trend? His slugging percentage has been declining over the past three years regardless of where he was hitting.

Oh, and there's also the small consideration of Mike Lowell's contract which the Sox will either have to eat or exchange him for a player equally as useless/overpaid. They could hold on to him but given that both he and Beltre are right handed, there's no platoon option. I suppose he could be a fall back DH if Ortiz struggles again, but that's a waste of a roster spot.

The signing of Beltre certainly makes the Sox better next year, but how many teams can afford to replace a player that was making $12M this coming season (and who should be able to play come opening day) with a guy who is making $9M?

The spendthrift ways of last season have been jettisoned in favor of big budget acquisitions in Boston this year. Apparently the items on the sale rack weren't all they were cracked up to be.

How Good Is Too Good?

Good morning Fackers. Yesterday, when I first heard about the Javier Vazquez trade, I had an inescapable, reluctant sort of a feeling. I knew the trade was one that would make the Yankees a better team next year without question, but I wasn't excited about it by any stretch.

It was unfortunate to see Arodys Vizcaino get sent to Atlanta just days after he been placed in the top half of the Yankees' top 10 prospects by both FanGraphs and Baseball America, but that wasn't what was bothering me. I had no particular attachment to Mike Dunn, so his loss certainly wasn't it. You don't want to part with a homegrown switch-hitting center fielder like Melky Cabrera who is only 25 years old and has already put in four years for the Yanks, but I don't think I'm going to miss him that much either.

Who we got back wasn't the issue. I don't expect Vazquez to have a year that in any way resembles his dominance in Atlanta, but he'll go a long way towards rounding out the Yankees rotation. What happened during his previous tenure in Pinstripes doesn't bother me at all.

The Braves were looking to unload payroll and the $11.5M Vazquez was making was the next best thing to dumping Derek Lowe. Regardless of what Mark Feinsand's source told him yesterday, this trade was a salary dump to some extent and I think that's what made the deal seem so uncouth. It's not to say that it wasn't a move that made sense for both teams - the Braves had six starting pitchers and the Yankees had four center fielders - but something still feels wrong about it.

The Yankees just won the World Series and they added a pitcher who was among the four or five best in the National League last year to be their third or fourth starter. With CC Sabathia making $23.5M, A.J. Burnett $16.5, Andy Pettitte $11.5, and now Vasquez another $11.5, their top four starters will make $62.5M in 2010, or more than the A's, Pirates, Padres and Marlins spent on their entire teams last year. Sure, the Yanks' total payroll bill for next year will probably come in somewhere near $200M, but staying close to that massive, arbitrary number isn't exactly something to be proud of.

Spending a ridiculous amount of money is nothing new to the Yankees - in 2005, they paid out $85M more than their closest competitor - but it's not as much the dollar amount as it is the players. Now that the Bombers are allocating those resources efficiently, it's hard not to understand how much money $200M actually is. Throughout the middle of this decade, the Yanks were continually paying the likes of Jason Giambi, Randy Johnson, Gary Sheffield, Jose Contreras, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano and Hideki Matsui far more than they were worth. Now survey the current roster. It looks pretty damn lean by comparison.

I know that it's borderline irrational for a Yankees fan to feel any sort of guilt about the amount the team spends. They make a ton of money - some of which comes from me - and if they don't spend it on players, it's just going to be sucked up into a corporate vacuum, never to be seen again. The more they spend on payroll, the more enjoyable it is going to be to watch them on any given day during the season.

And perhaps that's the issue. Maybe this is just an offseason problem. As the summer moves along and the season develops, it's likely that the Yankees won't actually be as good as they are on paper right now and it won't seem as unfair that they have assembled an absolutely ridiculous collection of current and former All-Stars and future Hall of Famers. Even if they win 110 games next year, they are still going to lose at a 32% clip. Given that a 94 win team loses 42% of the time, it doesn't seem all that different over the long run - one game out of every 10.

Everyone wants their team to be awesome. But I think people want to see their team come together and exceed expectations rather than attempt to live up to impossibly high ones. Ideally, you'd like your team to be better than others by virtue of something other than their relative willingness to shell out tens of millions of dollars. Being a bona fide Goliath doesn't take away from the satisfaction of winning a World Series, but it tempers the enjoyment of every step along the way.

As it stands, the 2010 season will end in one of two ways: an expected victory or a major failure. So while the moves the Yankees have made this offseason have ensured they have a better chance to win a World Series coming into the season than they have had in quite some time, they have also guaranteed that they will have more to lose than ever before.

The Return Of Nick The Stick

Good morning, Fackers. It appears as though the Yankees are close to signing Nick Johnson to a one year, $5.5M deal. Johnson can play exactly one position, first base, and since Mark Teixeira is as much of an everyday player as there is on the team, it looks like Johnson - health permitting - will be a more or less full time designated hitter. Apparently the Yanks weren't so intent on rotating the DH slot to their aging players after all.

With a career OBP of .402 (.426 over the last three years), Johnson is a powerful offensive asset who sees lots of pitches, has excellent strike zone discipline and hits left handed pitching well (.440 OBP against LHP last year) despite being left handed himself. Sticking a guy like that in the 2 hole - in front of Teixeira and A-Rod - is going to lead to a significant increase in RBI opportunities for those two. Nick the Stick's power has declined over the past three seasons (SLG .520, .431, .402), but it would be reasonable to assume that Yankee Stadium would help in that capacity.

The most obvious knock on Johnson is that he's injury prone, suffering ailments ranging from stress fractures in his hand to a fractured cheek bone to a broken femur to back problems to torn ligaments in his wrist. As a result, he has appeared in an average of only 93 games over the past 8 years (including the 2007 season, which he missed entirely). Conventional wisdom says that stashing him away at DH would help prevent injuries, but that's far from a guarantee.

It would have been nice to bring Johnny Damon back but that seems very unlikely if the deal for Johnson goes through. He was asking the Yankees for twice as much money as Johnson over a contract three times as long. Sure, the fact that Damon is able to play the outfield would have increased the flexibility of the roster, but if other players really need a day off, there isn't a good reason that Joe Girardi can't just give Johnson a rest.

As far as Hideki Matsui goes, I think Johnson is a better fit for the Yankees offense. Granted, they both provide next to nothing defensively, but at the plate, they are very similar. Johnson has a career wOBA of .371 and was at .373 last year. Those numbers for Matsui are .367 and .378, respectively. However, Matsui's numbers are predicated on power (which is volatile) while Johnson relies on the more stable on OBP.

I'd rather have someone with a gaudy OBP who A-Rod and Teix will continually have the opportunity to drive in than another, lesser power hitter behind them. Both Matsui and Johnson are injury prone, but the former suffers from chronic knee injuries that are only getting worse while Johnson seems to have been afflicted with more random and flukey ailments.

For what it's worth, Johnson was $1M cheaper than Matsui and it might have been more. As Brian Cashman noted in reference to Bobby Abreu, a player is less likely to take a pay cut from their former employer than from another team.

I don't want to hear about the money that Matsui makes for the organization over in Japan, because that's the team's problem, not the fans'. Who cares how popular the Yankees on the opposite side of the world? We don't benefit from the money they make over there. The fact that Matsui has performed well in the postseason is great, but there's no guarantee that he'll repeat that performance next time around.

Overall, I like this move for the Yankees. It carries limited risk and if Johnson can grind out his usual production for 500 or so plate appearances, he will be a tremendous asset to the line up.

Fiesty Small Market Underdogs Near Luxury Tax Threshold

Good morning, Fackers. Any guesses as to the identity of the team in the headline? From WEEI:

The signings of John Lackey to a five-year deal in the $82.5 million range and Mike Cameron to a two-year, $15.5 million contract would push the Sox payroll — as calculated for Major League Baseball’s luxury tax purposes — to an all-time franchise high.

Based on salary projections for the players who were offered contracts last Saturday, the Sox are already nearing the $170 million threshold for 2010 at which clubs will be assessed a luxury tax penalty.

It might have been the acquisitions of Lackey and Cameron that put the Sox very close to the Luxury Tax threshold, but as Matthew Pouliot from Circling the Bases points out, the deals given to their homegrown players are a big factor as well:

Prior to last year, the team was so conscious of its position straddling the luxury tax that it avoided signing young players to long-term deals. That changed as Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jon Lester all received extensions that kept them into their free agent years.

And it's those contracts that could put the Red Sox over the top. In reality, those three players, all of whom signed extensions last winter, will earn $16.375 million next season. However, for tax purposes, they're valued at $23.03 million.

The WEEI article provides a player by player estimate of the Sox salaries as they pertain to the Luxury Tax and a breakdown of some of the nuances involved in how the league calculates payroll for it. As far as the MLB is concerned, deals which buy out some arbitration years like the ones singed by Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedrioa and Jon Lester are all taxed at the average annual value of the deal meaning that, although Lester is making $3.75M this year, the Sox pay tax on the AAV of his 5 year, $30M deal.

The Luxury Tax is structured like the taxes we pay to the government, so it only applies to the amount spent over $170M, meaning the amount of money to the Sox will be next to nothing if they do exceed that mark. But the larger point here is that despite the much bemoaned free agent acquisitions the Yankees made last off season, when the dust settles, the two teams are likely to be fairly close (~$30M, 15%) in terms of payroll this year.

To many of the deluded members of Red Sox Nation like the ones who reared their ugly heads here, the Sox are David to the Yankees' Goliath, when in reality, the Sox are playing the role of Goliath to the rest of the league with the exceptions of the Mets and Cubs. Why do Sawx fans cling to the belief that their team is one of the "have nots"?

Part of this is the fact that Boston itself actually is a small market. The city itself has a population of about 600,000 and even expanding to the Greater Boston Area encompasses fewer than 5 million people. However, the Red Sox have a monopoly on the territory that stretches from Maine through New Hampshire, most of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and about half of Connecticut. There isn't one truly large city in that region, but there are a whole lot of small towns. Add them all up and you are pretty close to 10 million people.

Another factor is that deal just given to John Lackey will actually be the second largest in terms of total dollars that the Red Sox have on their books (behind only Matsuzka's if you include the posting fee). A.J. Burnett was given the same exact deal from the Yankees, but it's only the 5th largest the team has on the books, trailing A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira and Sabathia. This is a positive for the Sox in that they have more future flexibility without those long term commitments, but it also means that they continually have to either develop players from their system or find new free agents to fill their needs.

Do the Sox do this because they can't afford those longer deals or because they typically choose not to employ that strategy? Since they committed over $100M to Matsuzaka and went down to the wire with the Yanks on Teixeira, I would guess it is the latter.

There is a chance that the Sox will have a significantly lower payroll than the Yankees 3, 4 or 5 years from now, but there is also a chance that their prospects don't pan out and they are forced to overpay for stop gaps like Marco Scutaro, John Smotlz and Brad Penny as opposed to having elite but aging players already under contract.

Such is the trade off between living by the seat of your pants and making long term investments in blue chip players. However, at the present moment, the difference between those two strategies in terms of dollars spent isn't especially significant.

Some Shameless Self-Promotion

Our friend at Simon on Sports has been conducting a feature called "Blogging the Offseason" in which he asks a blogger from each team ten or so questions about the issues facing their respective organizations this winter.

Today, he's covering the World Series participants and talked to Meech from The Fightins and Mike from River Ave. Blues. Last and probably least, he asked some know-nothing from another Yankees blog to chip in with his two cents.

In other news, the folks over at the always funny It Is High, It Is Far, It is... Caught are conducting a poll to determine the Yankee Blog of the Decade. For one reason or another, despite only existing for about a year, we are actually in third place. If you are so inclined, head over to the left hand margin of their site and show your support. Since you can select multiple blogs, be sure to kick some votes towards RAB and IIATMS as well since they are severely underrepresented as of right now. By the time you're done, the weekend will almost be here.

Welcome Back, Andy

It's like he never left.

Andy Pettitte is coming back to the Bronx on a one year contract worth $11.75M with no incentives. This comes as no surprise both in terms of the dollar value and the fact that the deal got done. It was only a matter of time but it's nice to have it finalized.

Pettitte finished 2009 strong - as in starting the clinching game of the World Series strong - unlike in 2008 when his shoulder bothered him down the stretch. He actually made one fewer start this year than last, but had a 3.31 ERA in the second half and pitched well into the postseason, overcoming his struggles at the New Yankee Stadium. As such, the Yankees were obliged to guarantee him the money up front instead of load the contract with incentives. Seems fair to me.

With the two moves the Yankees have completed in the past 24 hours, they have made great strides towards solidifying the team for the 2010 season if you assume Joba and Hughes are filling in the 4th and 5th starter roles and Granderson is aimed for LF. While the bullpen seems a little barren and they could certainly use a DH and possibly a platoon partner for Granderson, the holes are closing and the team is starting to take shape. I'm sure Cash & Co. aren't done yet, but they are a lot further along than they were this time yesterday.

Checking Back In With An Old Timer

What's up Fackers? It's been a while, so many have never seen one of my posts on this site and the rest have probably forgotten about me - if so, no hard feelings. I haven't written anything here in quite a long time but did lend some legal insights into this post back in May. Before that, I put together some reports on Austin Jackson early in the season and profiled several former Yankees for our countdown to Spring Training.

Well, let me introduce/re-introduce myself. My name is Joe and I am a soon-to-be attorney. I was absent the most part of this fackin' awesome season because I had to study for the New York State Bar Exam (congrats to all those who passed). Brilliant work by Jay and fellow BC Guy Matt in taking this blog from 5 readers to being attributed and acclaimed by respected baseball blogs like Shysterball, Big League Stew, River Ave. Blues and Walkoff Walk. As Jay takes a step back this offseason, I look forward to contributing more - mostly about the NFL and College Hoops. Of course, I will also provide my thoughts on the main focus of the blog, the World Champion New York Yankees.

One of my favorite posts that I did in previewing the season was detailing my talk with John, an Old Time Yanks fan, at the Albany Ancient Order of Hibernians pub. Well last Friday, I ran into John again, at the Albany AOH where he was donning his World Series Champions shirt and hat as well as a smile reminiscent of a father seeing his first born. Over a few pints of Guinness, he told me to cherish this Championship every second, because you never know when the next one is going to come. The 80 year old man also took some time to talk some trash to a few Sawx fans at the pub, which I'm sure most readers of Fack Youk can appreciate.

As one of my first posts back, I think it would be cool to rehash my first conversation with him and see how his observations look in hindsight:

Yankees Payroll: Despite being a humble, bingo-playing man, John had no qualms about the Yankees payroll. He cannot get over the fact that people start bitching about the recent signings of Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett but fail to consider that their payroll will be less than last year. He is very pleased that the Hank/Hal tandem will continue to spend like their father. "Put the best team on the field," says the man. Many older generation fans have soured on baseball due to the ridiculous salaries of players, but John is such a dedicated fan that even at his advanced age he makes several bus trips from Albany to Yankee Stadium a year.

John was right on here. Once again, the day after the clinch, the sports radio circuit was bitching about the Yankees buying their 27th World Championship without acknowledging that the Yankees payroll decreased. Also, how about some acknowledgement for Cash signing the right guys in Teix, CC and AJ, guys who could handle the atmosphere of the Bronx and perform when it really matters, unlike those tall cranky lefties, guys who wear golden thongs, spar with concrete, smoke pot on airplanes and harass female flight attendants or wine aficionados with a nickname that begins with "Home Run"? Kudos to Hank and Hal for continuing the win at all costs strategy employed by their dad. Let's hope that the two brothers will be inspired by the events transpiring over the last glorious week and continue to do whatever it takes to please Yankees fans.

Yankees Prospects: Almost every other word out of the guy's mouth was "Jackson." Of course, he was talking about future perennial All-Star CF Austin "Action/AJax" Jackson. Knew everything about him. Cannot wait for the 5 tooler to start manning sports' most pristine real estate in 2010. If I remember correctly (don't hold me to this due to copious Guinness consumption), I think Mickey Mantle's name was even mentioned when discussing Jackson. I have no idea how he knows all of this considering I don't think he has a computer/internet access. He was also adverse to trading Ian Kennedy away.

As Matt previously stated, we didn't spend too much time on prospects this year. But, A-Jax was the International League's Rookie of the Year, finishing .300/.354/.405 with 24 SB, 4 HR, and 65 RBI. I was a bit disappointed in his power development and decrease in OBP, but think he did considering it was his first year in AAA. I would like to see him start out in Scranton and improve upon last year. Patience is the key for both Austin and Yankees fans. John appeared to be wrong, 2011 should be the year.

Dellin Betances had a much rougher year than Jackson. Before undergoing season ending Tommy John surgery in August, Betances had struggled with Double-A Trenton this season, going 2-5 with a 5.48 ERA in 11 starts. We have seen Tommy John surgery work wonders with some young pitchers, so let's see what it does with the 6'8" native New Yorker. Unfortunately, we will not find out until 2011. Get well soon, Dellin!

Another mammoth Yankees pitcher didn't have a good season either. Andrew Brackman, the 6'10" righthy from NC State who Scott Boras negotiated onto the 40-man roster after being signed out of college, had TJ surgery immediately after being picked 30th overall in the 2007 draft. The surgery caused Brackman to miss the 2007 and 2008 seasons. In 2009, the former basketball player ended his first season with 106 hits in 106.2 innings of work, 103K (8.69 K/9), walk rate of 6.41 BB/9, 5.91 ERA, and 1.71 WHIP for the A Charleston River Dogs. Brackman was much better after being placed in the bullpen in August and September but he needs obviously has a long way to go in terms of harnessing his stuff.

Jesus Montero, the 19-year old Venezuelan catcher/DH sensation had a great season down the farm, splitting 98 games between Charleston and AA Trenton. In 44 games with Trenton, Jesus hit .317/.370/.539 with 9 HR, 33 RBI. These states if extrapolated to 160 games are 30 home runs, 43 doubles, 200 hits, 121 RBIs, 80 strikeouts and 50 walks. While his offensive state improved vastly, his defensive stats declined all across the board. The good folks at Yankees Universe compared the youngster to Prince Fielder. A lot of teams should be inquiring about him this winter. If he tears up AAA next year and manages not to get traded, he should be a fixture in the Bronx beginning in 2011.

Current Outfield Situation: According to John, the CF job needs to be given to Brett Gardner. Melky needs to be released/traded due to his negative influence on Cano (who is expected to have a great comeback year). He would love to see Matsui moved but the full no-trade clause and high salary makes it virtually impossible. Nady or Swisher? Like me, he likes Nady more than Swisher but thinks Nady is a better trade option due to his salary. Likes Damon for LF.

Well, many of us at Fack Youk thought that Brett Gardner should have received the majority of the playing time and been the starting CF on the playoff roster. Looking at the season in review, the Gardy/Melky duo was very serviceable, each providing different qualities to the team. Interestingly, Melky matured greatly and came through with multiple walk off hits. Nady was obviously a non-factor, and luckily Matsui was still on the roster when the World Series rolled around.

Key to '09: The health of Posada.

I'm not sure that there was one "key" per se. Obviously the return and health of Posada was very important. Jorge's Wins Above Replacement this year was 4.0 compared to his 2009 value of 0.8. This increase wasn't even the highest on the team--that was shared by Cano (who went from .5 to 4.2) and Jeter, who many feared was entering his decline phase (3.7 to 7.4).

Although his WAR actually decreased for some reason, I thought that Andy Pettitte was one of the most important keys to the 2009 season. I actually didn't want Pettitte on the team due to the amount of money that he wanted and because of his putrid 2nd half of 2008. Well, this second half, he pitched to the tune of a 3.31 ERA, 6-3 record, and .226 BAA in 14 starts. His contributions were a major reason the Yanks fared so well from the All-Star break onward. Not to mention that he clinched the ALDS, ALCS and World Series. Will he retire on top or come back for #28?

Teixeira: The Yankees best signing in a long time. Thinks he will be at worst a Tino Martinez.

A very good comparison by John. Teixeira, in my opinion, was a better fielder than Tino this year. Not that it is an end-all, be-allm but Teix won a Gold Glove while Tino did not. How many images in your head do you have of Teix doing a split like a ballerina? Although he did not hit too particularly well in the postseason, his defense saved the team multiple times in October. Oh, I forgot, he also led the AL in RBI and HR, picking up the Silver Slugger award for AL 1B. Not too shabby. Jason who?

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I hope that you enjoyed reading this revisitation. Not a bad prophesy from an old timer. I look forward to speaking with John again as the Hot Stove warms up. Let me know if you would like me to ask him something special.

Replacing A World Series MVP

For third time in their last five championship off seasons, the Yankees will have a World Series MVP entering free agency.

In 1996, closer John Wetteland took home the hardware, appearing in 5 games, saving all four Yankee wins, and striking out 6 while posting a 2.08 ERA in 4.1 innings of work. Just 30 years old, Wetteland's contract expired following the season. The Yankees had absolutely stolen him from the Expos prior to the '95 season and he spent two memorable years as the Yankee closer. He recorded 74 saves in those two seasons, and his other stats were even more impressive: 167 ERA+, 1.03 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.86 K:BB.

Yet, Wetteland didn't inspire a sense of confidence. Despite his impressive numbers, he always seemed to be walking a tightrope in the ninth inning, blowing 10 saves over the two years. He absolutely melted down in the 1995 Division Series, to the point that Buck Showalter wouldn't even use him in the deciding Game Five, instead allowing an exhausted David Cone to be relieved by an exhausted Jack McDowell, and by Wetteland's eventual replacement.

With Mariano Rivera turning in an astounding 1996 as Wetteland's set up man, the Yankees allowed their closer to walk, bequeathing the role of closer to Mo. The rest is history. Wetteland signed a four year, $23M contract with the Rangers, where he continued to excel as one of the league's best closers until back injuries forced him to retire following the 2000 season.

Two years later the Yankees found themselves in a similar predicament. Scott Brosius won the 1998 World Series MVP on the strength of his .471 showing with two huge home runs in Game Three, including a three run shot off Trevor Hoffman in the eighth inning, erasing the final lead the Padres held in that Series.

Unlike Wetteland, Brosius came to the Yankees almost as an afterthought. After two miserable seasons in New York, the Yankees were able to unload Kenny Rogers on Oakland following the '97 season for a player to be named later. Eleven days after the initial deal, the clubs agreed on Brosius, who was coming off a dismal .203/.259/.317 (53 OPS+) season. Perhaps the Yankees thought he could recreate the success he enjoyed in '95-'96 (.284/.369/.486 121 OPS+), but if nothing else the Yankees were rid of Rogers and had picked up a player who could be in the mix to replace the Wade Boggs/Charlie Hayes tandem at third base and was versatile enough to see time at shortstop and all three outfield positions.

Brosius went on to have a career year in the magical 1998 season, hitting .300/.371/.472 (121 OPS+) and driving in 98 runs while batting primarily eighth or ninth. He strong performance coupled with his historic showing in the World Series prompted the Yankees to re-sign Brosius to a three year $15.75M contract, despite the fact that he was 32 years old and the Yankees had Mike Lowell ready to take over. Lowell would be 25 come next Opening Day and had hit .304/.355/.535 with 26 HR and 99 RBI at AAA, a year after hitting .315/.401/.562 with 30 HR and 92 RBI.

With Brosius in tow for another three years, the Yankees flipped Lowell to the Marlins for three minor league pitchers, one of whom never appeared in the Bigs, one of whom never made it to the Bronx, and who pitched a combined 44 innings in the Majors. Brosius wouldn't come close to replicating his 1998 numbers for the remainder of his career. As likable as Brosius was, as good as his 1998 season was, as big as his HRs were in the '98 and '01 Series, electing to keep him over Lowell was a mistake.

Eleven years later, the Yankees face a somewhat similar situation with Hideki Matsui. Unlike Wetteland and Brosius, Matsui is not a new comer, being the most tenured Yankee outside of the "core four". He's 35, considerably older than both Wetteland and Brosius at the time of their WS MVPs. Unlike with Wetteland and Brosius, the Yankees don't have a young replacement waiting in the wings. Jesus Montero is still seen as a catcher and is still likely a year away; Juan Miranda has posted good numbers at AAA but doesn't project to carry his weight as a Major League DH.

Given that Matsui is strictly a designated hitter at this point, the Yankees do have some additional flexibility in that they don't have to have a direct replacement for him, but his offense (.274/.367/.509, 128 OPS+) will be difficult to replace no matter what they do.

Retrospective hindsight says the Yankees went 1 for 2 the last times they faced such a decision. Time will tell how they fare this time around.

The Coronation

The Yankees had been tortured by the own high expectations for 9 long years. Not by the supposed "Championship or Bust" mantra that for the most part is wildly overplayed, as much as their actions as a franchise. Even if they had pretended like they didn't care that much about winning, it would have been painfully apparent that they did.

Since 2000, the Yankees have spent over $1.5B on player's salaries, let alone the amount paid to coaches, training staff, front office personnel, scouts, minor league operations and countless other employees singularly dedicated to assembling the best baseball team possible. And last night, it's seemed like it was all worth it.

If the last nine years have taught us anything, it's that you can't buy championships (despite the common Yankee-hater refrain). You can certainly try. You can buy extended streaks of regular season success. You can come pretty close to buying a playoff berth. But you still have to run the gauntlet of a three-tiered playoff system which was a lot harder than it seemed back when Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, David Cone, Bernie Williams & Co. were still wearing Pinstripes.

This year, it seemed easy again.

The Yankees cruised through the second half of the season, didn't face elimination once in the playoffs, and the Phillies didn't have the tying run on base at any point after the third inning last night. After Damaso Marte impossibly mowed down Chase Utley to end the 7th inning and Ryan Howard to begin the 8th with 2 strikeouts six pitches, we could relax and savor the moment.

Last night was a coronation of the a team who, despite what Jimmy Rollins wants you to think, was the best team in baseball for most of this year by a considerable margin. It was validation of the last 9 years of aggressive free agent spending and high-upside drafting.

It was a celebration for Hideki Matsui and A-Rod and Sabathia and Burnett and Cano who will never have the fact that they haven't won a World Series held against them again. And probably just as sweet for the guys who played supplemental roles and ended up in the right place at the right time. It was a culmination for Jeter, Pettitte, Posada and Rivera who amazingly won a 5th title together 9 years after their last. This is as good as it gets.

We were all in vastly different places in our lives 9 years ago. I was a 16 year old kid who was a Yankee fan but didn't really know that much about baseball. I couldn't have told you what OPS meant or who Bill James was. The Yankees had just won 4 out of 5 years and if you had listed the players the Yanks were going to acquire and told me it would take until now to win again, I would have thought you were batshit insane.

But it did take that long. Which makes it that much sweeter.

Round 2: Damon v. Abreu

Yesterday's hot topic around here, Bobby Abreu just got offered a nice new deal with the Angels.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim offered Bobby Abreu a two-year extension worth about $16MM, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

As he did before this year, ol' Bobby is shooting for the stars and looking for a better deal. There's no real harm in that since he didn't sign with the Angels until mid-February this year and he has every right to find another team that's willing to pay him more than that.

Abreu is a really good hitter who would be an asset if placed in any lineup in the history of the game and he's coming off a pretty good year. But he'll be 36 years old when next season starts. He already has limited ability as a corner outfielder and will eventually transition into a part-time DH role.

Does that scenario sound familiar? That's right folks, Johnny Damon is in a nearly identical position.

Granted, the most likely scenario is that both guys stay where they are at, but let's assume the Yankees could have either of them for 2 years at $10M per. It might be a bit much, but with that offer already sitting out there for Abreu, we know it's not going to be much less.

Like we did yesterday with Nick Swisher and Abreu, let's look at the stats.

Damon batted in the two hole almost exclusively this year, while Abreu primarily hit third. This explains some of the gap in RBI, but not as well as Abreu's .354/.448/.475 line with RISP. That's great and all, but it's hardly sustainable.

On the same note, Damon set a career high for HRs this year and that is likely to regress to the mean next year as well. If Abreu were to get half of his plate appearances in Yankee Stadium in 2010, there's a pretty good chance his totals would increase, bringing the two a bit closer together.

The stolen base edge goes to Abreu, but Damon obviously could have run more and a good portion of the difference has to be the product of the strategy of the teams they play for. Defense isn't going to matter as much in the role that the Yankees are looking for since it will involve a good amount of games in the DH slot but Damon was completely terrible this year, and I don't think we can chalk off of it up to his eye issues. Although subjectively, I don't think there's any way he's that much worse than Abreu.

We're looking at two pretty similar players. Both have been extremely fortunate with their health over the years and remain productive at an advanced age. Both are risky investments and there's a fair chance that two years from now, one will look better than the other or both will look pretty bad. But based on what we know now, who ya got?

Realistically, Damon is far more likely to stick around due to real world factors like their families and such, but on paper a good case could be made for either of these guys. Think of what Abreu could do for the Yankees' approach at the plate!

Swisher v. Abreu

This morning, Matt did a great job debunking the myth of Bobby Abreu's resurgent season and magical contagious plate discipline out in Anaheim. I also want to chime in on Abreu's production this season, but in relation to his ostensible replacement - another cheap acquisition via trade for the Yankees - Nick Swisher.

Although Xavier Nady was slotted as the starting right fielder and Swisher was supposed to man first base at the time the Yankees declined to offer Abreu arbitration on his $16M 2008 contract, Nady was done for the season by April 14th and Swish ended up getting over 600 plate appearances for the Yanks. Abreu sounded a bit like a spurned lover when talking about the Yankees cutting him loose but the reality is that at the time $16M was far too much to offer a corner outfielder with limited range when the market are held players like Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell - even before taking into account the state of the baseball economy.

The decision made itself. The Angels waited out Abreu's attempts at a large, multi-year deal and got great value on highly productive hitter. Meanwhile, the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira and Swish ended up taking Abreu's place in right field of the New Yankee Stadium. They made essentially the same amount of money in 2009, so who got the better player?

Both guys love to work the count and put up solid OBPs, but that's pretty much where their similarities end. Let's take a look at the numbers (bold print represents an advantage):

A cursory look at the basic stats would give the nod to Abreu. His batting average is far higher than Swisher's and he batted in 14 21 more runs while stealing 30 bases.

However, while Abreu complied 41 more hits than Swisher, he actually had 14 fewer go for extra bases. The OBP advantage goes to Abreu, but more importantly, the slugging crown is Swish's by a wide margin. The home run totals are skewed by the New Yankee Stadium (although Swish only hit 8 at home), but not so much that Abreu would have hit twice as many there.

Abreu batted either second or third in the Angels' line up while Swisher was typically hitting somewhere between 6th and 8th for the Yankees, which explains the difference in RBIs. The 30 stolen bases at a 78% success rate do represent a major advantage for Abreu, but adding those 22 net total bases to Abreu's total isn't enough counteract Swisher's advantage in slugging percentage while subtracting the 8 times on base brings with OBPs closer together.

Usually, you would expect the guy who is a better base stealer to have the advantage in fielding as well, but that's not the case in this scenario. Swish didn't even attempt to steal a base all year long but still was better, or should I say "not as bad" as Abreu in right field.

Mainly on the strength of defense and power, Swisher had a higher value for the Yankees this year. Since Abreu hit all the plate appearance-based incentives in his contract this year, it means that Swish was the cheaper option by about $700,000 as well.

Both teams made out very well, but for different reasons. Swisher was cost controlled because of the deal he signed buying out his arbitration years and Abreu's contract was one of the most team-friendly in a historic buyer's market. The Yanks got an average fielding slugger while the Angels got a singles-raking base stealer. And with the teams meeting in the ALCS, I don't think there are too many regrets with how this scenario played out.

Enough With The Mauer Speculation, Already

That's what Mike Vaccarro is saying, except, since he works for the Post, he's speculating anyway.

Hell, the Yankees have never been shy about raiding their foes. They took Tommy John away from the Dodgers, took Luis Tiant and Johnny Damon and Wade Boggs away from the Red Sox, took Jason Giambi away from the A's after he nearly wrecked them by himself a couple of times in the playoffs. Until they announce they're out with Mauer, they always will be in, and that's an awfully enticing thought.

Are people really "yearning" for Joe Mauer as Vaccarro also says in the article? Giving out another $200M contract or whatever it's going to take to sign Joe Mauer isn't enticing to me at all. The guy is an incredibly great player - a catcher with 3 batting titles, who's just starting to hit for power - but can we keep it in our pants for once?

The Yanks are in the middle of a postseason run and people are speculating about who they are going to sign two fucking years from now? There will be plenty of cold winter months to dream about Joe Mauer or Felix Hernandez or a bunch of other ridiculously expensive marquee players that the Yanks have been developing their farm system specifically to avoid signing.

That's why the Yanks have spent top 10 picks on catchers like John Murphy, Kyle Higashioka, Austin Romine and Chase Weems (although they traded Weems for Jerry Hairston, Jr.) and signed Jesus Montero and Gary Sanchez and high upside arms Andrew Brackman, Gerrit Cole, Phil Hughes, Joba, Dellin Betances and Brett Marshall. The Yanks can spend big money on free agents, but would much rather not have to.

Sorry Mike, smart Yanks fans know we got our presents this year. They were the contracts given to Sabathia, Teixeira, Burnett and less recently, A-Rod. Derek Jeter's gonna need a new one after next year. Cano is due to make $14 and $15M in 2012 and 2013, respectively and the organization is going to want to cut payroll if at all possible. We can think about the future during the offseason, right now, we're just enjoying the moment.

Damon Stayin'?

To be honest, I hated the fact that the Yankees signed Johnny Damon when it first happened. It didn't have much to do with the fact that he was 32 years old and was already declining pretty steeply as a defensive center fielder. It wasn't just that the Yanks passed on Carlos Beltran the year before, who, with respect to the five tools, was better than Damon in every way. I couldn't wrap my head around being forced to root for a play that I had spent so much time deeply despising.

There was his impossibly weak throwing arm that make me wonder if he was actually right handed but never figured it out. It was so easy to hate his faux-Jesusy look, the "Idiots" and "Cowboy Up" bullshit and the goofy speech impediment he used to talk about it all. Above all, the grand slam he hit off Javier Vasquez in the 2004 ALCS was far too painful for me to acknowledge the possibility of ever actively rooting for him at the time.

I certainly never thought I would be in favor of the Yankees offering him another contract at the end of this year. However, nearly four years later, Damon has been one of the most durable players on the Yankees and has continued to pull his weight offensively, even after being shifted to left field.

Tyler Kepner talked to Damon yesterday and Johnny had this to say about his impending free agency:

I don’t know where else I would want to go to. Obviously, that’s not the right thing to say when you’re about ready to approach free agency, but I’m very happy with playing in New York, and my family’s happy I play for New York. There’s no bigger place to go. If you play well here, you’re going to get paid. New York has the resources.

It's important to note that Scott Boras is still his agent and if Damon is anything like the other capitalist robots manufactured by the Boras Corporation, you can take that quote with a grain of salt. In fact, if Damon is anything like the 2005 version of himself, we probably shouldn't put too much stock in his stated intentions, either (h/t NoMaas):

There's no way I can go play for the Yankees, but I know they are going to come after me hard. It's definitely not the most important thing to go out there for the top dollar, which the Yankees are going to offer me. It's not what I need.

As with any contractual negotiation, I'd be in favor of bringing back Damon at the right price. UZR doesn't think too highly of his defense this year, but I'm not ready to relegate Damon solely to DH status. Just last year his UZR/150 was 11.6 and this year it's -9.6. Has he really fallen of that sharply? Even with his below average defensive, Johnny has been so good with the bat that he projects to be worth $14.8M over the course of the season, comfortably more than the $13M he's making.

Damon's already knocked 22 homers this year, just two off his career high. True, 15 of those have come at home and every one has been to right field, but that's not an inherently bad thing. If the Yanks sign him again next year he'll be playing half of his games in the same park.

With Hideki Matsui likely moving on after this season, the Yanks won't have someone plugging up the DH slot who can't play another position. The Yanks have stated that they want to keep that position open to be able to rest other position players, which keeps the line up flexible, but Damon is still a somewhat competent left fielder, even if he doesn't rebound next year. His bat more than makes up for his defensive short-comings.

From his comments in Kepner's story, it's safe to say that Damon will be looking for at least 2 years. Should the Yanks bring him back for 2 years/$20M? Would that be enough? Who is going to give him more than that? Given the way the New Stadium plays, it seems that he would be worth more to the Yanks than anyone else. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Cash & Co. cut ties with Damon, but if they keep him around, I wouldn't be surprised to see him lift another twenty-something homers over the short porch in right field next year, either.

Jays Jettison Rios

Since the Jays are in town and this move effects both the White Sox' playoff chances this year and the direction of the Blue Jays going forward, I figured I would take some time to examine the decision to acquire Yankee Killer Alex Rios off the waiver wire by the White Sox.

Coupled with the Jake Peavy trade, ChiSox GM Kenny Williams has taken on roughly $115M in future salary over the past two weeks. The Sox are one game over .500, so they don't figure to factor into the Wild Card mix, but are still just 3 games in back of the Tigers in the AL Central. Peavy is still on the disabled list and won't make his first minor league start until later this week at the earliest so he probably won't make more than 4 or 5 starts for the Big League club before the end of the regular season.

Rios', on the other hand, will make an immediate impact if used optimally. In his career with the Jays, Rios has primarily held down RF while Vernon Wells played CF. Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin are holding down the starting corner outfield jobs for the Sox, which would be a problem were it not for the fact that Rios is a more than capable CF as well. He's much better than Wells, actually. In 106 games in CF, Rios has a UZR/150 of 12.8 whereas Wells' is -6.8. The Sox started Ken Griffey, Jr. in CF for 32 games last year, so they obviously aren't too concerned with shifting someone from a corner spot to center.

Considering the meager production the Sox are getting out of their current center fielders (.224/.281/.313), Rios' line of .264/.338/.383 is a significant upgrade, even before you consider the boost he'll be getting from playing at US Cellular Field. He's also a base stealing threat with 32 last year and 19 already this season.

Despite being in his physical prime at 28 years old, Rios is having a down year, which is the major reason the Blue Jays decided to let the White Sox walk away with him for nothing more than the required $20,000 transfer fee. The two teams engaged in negotiations before the trade deadline, meaning the Sox would have actually had to give up something at that point, but they waited it out, were the only team to make a waiver claim and got him for essentially nothing.

From the Blue Jays' perspective, they shed a major chunk of salary (not the one they really wanted to, though), but also parted with Rios at his lowest value thus far in his career. Even still, he will come close to equaling his contract value this year and has far exceeded even the $12.5M he is due in 2014 in both 2007 and 2008 according to FanGraphs. And those numbers calculate his value mostly as a RF, not a CF.

Does this move foreshadow a Roy Halladay trade this offseason? Dumping a productive player with a long term deal like Rios for salary reasons and getting nothing in return doesn't exactly signal the desire to compete now. This is a step beyond the Scott Rolen move. By dealing Halladay, they could save themselves a significant amount of money and net some good prospects in return, if they are indeed moving towards rebuilding. I'd be willing to be that the Jays would have tried harder to find a place for Halladay if they knew they could dump Rios after the deadline.

It's possible that Rios' offensive production will continue to decline and the Jays are thrilled with their decision in a few years, but I think it's more likely that they watch him become a solid contributor for the White Sox and regret the fact that it made financial sense at the time to get rid of him. If Rios were to hit the free agent market this offseason, he almost surely wouldn't get the kind of contract he is signed to, but the way that the baseball economy moves from here through 2014 could make the deal look very shrewd or very foolish on either side.

A Look Back at the Off-Season

Since the Yankees seemingly can't beat the Red Sox on the field, let's take a look back at the last time the Bombers bested the Olde Towne Team - the 2008-2009 off-season. After kicking the tires on CC Sabathia, presumably to drive the price up for the Yankees, the Sox made a real push for Mark Teixeira, only to have him surprisingly sign with the Yankees after some shrewd and stealthy negotiating by Brian Cashman.

The Teixeira signing capped an unbelievable off-season spending spree for the Yankees. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira were 3 of the top 4 free agents on the market (Manny Ramirez being the other). When all was said and done, the Yankees had committed 20 years and $423.5M to the three players.

Predictably, and perhaps somewhat deservedly, the Yankees took a lot of heat in the media and from the other clubs for spending what amounts to roughly the gross domestic product of the entirety of sub-Saharan Africa, and doing so in the midst of the country's worst economic crisis in more than seventy years. However, the Yankees operated within the context of the rules and were essentially leveraging the significant financial resources they have at their disposal.

Meanwhile, after losing out on Teixeira, the Sox made a series of lesser moves. Now I'm not one to believe that there's a media bias against the Yankees or towards the Red Sox. But, the way that the Sox off-season was framed as smart and economical in opposition to the Yankees gluttony was more than a bit hypocritical. Let's look at the Sox off-season moves with economic data courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts:

• John Smoltz signed 1 yr, $5.5M, with potential bonuses totalling an additional $5.5M

• Brad Penny signed 1 yr, $5M, with potential bonuses totalling an additional $3M

• Takashi Saito signed 1 yr, $1.5M, with potential bonuses totalling an additional $6M

• Josh Bard signed 1 yr, non-guaranteed. Reported value $1.7M, with an additional $0.8M bonus potential

• Junichi Tazawa, signed 3 yrs, $3.3M

• Rocco Baldelli signed 1 yr, $0.5M, with potential bonuses totalling an additional $7M

• Mark Kotsay re-signed 1 yr, $1.5M, with potential bonuses totalling an additional $1M

• Jason Varitek re-signed 1 yr $5M

All told, that's $23.3M guaranteed with bonus potential of an additional $25M. That's a drop in the bucket compared to what the Yankees paid out, but the potential $47.25M in 2009 for the Sox isn't all that far off from the $64.5M (signing bonuses included) the Yankees will pay their three free agent signees in 2009. These are some good high risk, high reward signings for the Sox. But what did they get for their money?

• In Smoltz and Penny, two pitchers coming off injury who combined for 122.2 IP in 2008 and a combined 5.43 ERA in the NL. Smoltz has yet to pitch; Penny has been average at best. And it's heavily rumored that Penny will soon be flipped for prospects.

• In Saito they picked up a good reliever who has been very effective in his career, but who has also been beset by injuries. So far this has worked out pretty well.

• Josh Bard, who the Sox traded very early in the 2006 season when they realized he couldn't catch a knuckler, had an even shorter stint this time. He was cut before Spring Training was over, leaving the Sox on the hook for $283K of his salary.

• Tazawa, who was signed through a potentially improper loophole in the Japanese system, is pitching at AA Portland.

• Baldelli has a lengthy injury history and has spent time on the DL this year. Ditto for Kotsay. Together they give the Sox two talented, but highly injury prone, back-up OF/DH/1B types.

• Varitek is 37. He hit .220/.313/.359 (73 OPS+) last year. He's doing better this year, buoyed by a SLG over .500, but his AVG and OBP are below league average.
  
  

Now the John Henry ownership group has done a tremendous job of squeezing every last penny out of the Red Sox brand and decrepit (charming?) Fenway Park. And good for them, it's remarkable that they've done so and it's commendable that they reinvest that money back into the team. However, before John Henry shoots his mouth off, making comments like "we have to be even more careful in deploying our resources"as he did in the wake of losing Teixeira, he might want to consider how few teams in MLB could afford to take on one or two of the above contracts, let alone all eight of them.

The Sox aren't some poor small market team. They may not have the financial resources of the Yankees, but aside from the Mets, Cubs, and possibly the Angels and Dodgers, no other MLB franchises can match the financial clout of the Red Sox. Perhaps the media should keep that in mind next time they want to laud the smart, shrewd signings made by the Sox this past off-season.