New York Already One Up On Boston This Weekend

We're still about four hours away from the first pitch of game one of this weekend's series, but New York has already notched is first victory over Boston on the weekend. This morning, the annual media game was held at Fenway, with the New York writers laying a 20-3 beatdown on Boston.

Congrats go out to LoHud's Chad Jennings, the offensive star of the morning with a two run inside-the-park homer. The New York Times' Tyler Kepner hurled the first five innings, then Bryan Hoch of yankees.com/MLB Advanced Media played the role of Mo with a scoreless final frame. Friend of the blog Marc Carig had the hardest hit ball of the day, but flashed only warning track power. I've yet to see any reports on how old friend Peter Abraham did after pulling his reverse-Johnny Damon last year.

Kepner was the Times beat writer through last season, but was promoted to national columnist after shortstop Jack Curry took a buyout and joined the YES Network. No word on whether Boston will protest Kepner's eligibility.

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More links? Why not?

According to this tweet and this grainy photo, David Ortiz was grilling for students at my alma mater earlier today. I'm dubious about the picture, but if anyone should know when something is totally cooked, it's gotta be Big Papi, amIright?

After touching on the same topic twice already today, let's go for three. RAB passes along that AAA Scranton has activated catcher P.J. Pilittere, possibly indicating that Chad Moeller could be on his way up. Or since Posada is out taking earlier BP, maybe he's fine.

If you never want to think of Joe Torre in the same light ever again, read this story passed along by Deadspin's Drew Magary.

And with a tip of that to Moshe Mandel from TYU, Mystique and Aura has a post on 2008 first round pick Gerrit Cole, the one that got away.

Back with the preview in a bit.

Has A.J. Burnett Changed His Approach?

It's common to hear baseball players talk about altering some element of their personal strategy but not have the numbers back up their story. The tasks that both pitchers and batters have to perform occur on a razor's edge with tons of variables and are complicated by the fact that there is someone else on the other side of the equation who wants the exact opposite thing they do. So a player can say they are taking a different tack, try very hard to do it, but struggle to get quantifiable results.

So far this season, A.J. Burnett has fallen on the opposite end of the spectrum. He's hasn't done much talking about adjusting his approach, but he's been pitching great and gotten it done a way that runs counter to the type of pitcher he's been in the past.

Traditionally a guy with a propensity to both strikeout and walk a lot of batters, A.J. has seen both of those rates drop to roughly 2/3 of their career norms. At the same time, he's given up more hits, throwing slightly more strikes and is getting more outs on the ground.

About 3/4 of the pitches Burnett has thrown in 2010 have been fastballs, a proportion that he hasn't approached since his days with the Marlins - and back then he was a different kind of pitcher. Burnett has admitted that in those days he was overly concerned with trying to light up the radar gun, but one of the reasons that Brian Cashman was impressed by him during their free agent courtship was that he claimed that Roy Halladay has instilled in him that pitching was about much more than velocity. So far this season, Burnett has been pitching like a poor man's version of his old mentor - with a two-seamer instead of a cutter and a curve instead of a slider -which is still pretty damn good.

Why the increase in fastballs this season? According to Burnett, it's partially because he's still not comfortable using his curveball.

On paper, it doesn't make sense that Burnett would benefit from throwing more heaters. Last year, his fastball was one of the worst in the Majors and his hook one of the best. So far (working with small sample sizes obviously) both pitches have been pretty close to average.

If you believe the PitchFX data from FanGraphs, Burnett has thrown more two-seamers than in years past. Like, a lot more. Since 2007, only about two percent of his pitches were classified at two-seamers, but this year that proportion is nearly 1/4. It's worth noting that Joe from RAB thinks that this could be a result in a change in the PitchFX system, but based on Burnett's results and comments, I'm inclined to believe there is something there, even if the change isn't as drastic as the the numbers seem to indicate.

In last night's postgame interview, A.J. said that his two-seamer "was running all over the place". He also talked about letting batters hit the ball more than once:

I don't have to strike everybody out. I can let them put the ball in play - here it is, hit it - and more times than not, they'll make plays behind me.

...I’m learning more and more how to throw the ball to both sides of the plate with movement, and trusting my defense. We've got Hall of Famers everywhere behind me playing, so just let them hit the ball.

To distill this into a neat little cliché, he seems to be talking about pitching to contact. And the fact that he's walked fewer batters, struck out fewer and allowed more hits than in the past backs that up.

Perhaps putting the ball over the plate and trusting his defense wasn't something Burnett had planned on, but a place he's found himself in somewhat accidentally because his hook wasn't there for him yet. He's been forced to mix in his two-seamer and found that it could be an effective out pitch - except it's useful for inducing ground balls instead of tallying up strikeouts.

I don't mean to imply that Burnett has reinvented himself as a pitched on a whim at age 33. Of course, everything we are talking about in this post comes with a small sample size caveat and could be nothing more than a fuzzy memory when July rolls around. But he seems to be pitching differently and getting positive results and when he finally finds his curveball, he could be even more dangerous. One way or another, he's not going to finish the season with a 2.43 ERA. But it's hard not to be encouraged by what we've seen so far.

Injuries And Auditions: 4 More Days 'Til Opening Day

Good morning, Fackers. Yesterday wasn't a particularly good one for the Yankees, injury-wise. It was announced that Alan Horne, who already endured Tommy John surgery now needs surgery to repair an 80% tear in his rotator cuff. He hasn't been fully healthy since 2007 and considering that he'll be at least 28 by the time he pitches again, this looks like the official end for him as far as being a prospect is concerned.

More germane to the Big League club, word came out that Alfredo Aceves is day-to-day with a sore back, something that has been bothering him since last September. This comes on the heels of a poor outing against the Orioles during which he gave up 6 runs in 2+ IP. It's possible that the issue could keep Aceves off the Opening Day roster and make way for Boone Logan, but as of now it appears Alf will get another tune up this Spring and be ready for Sunday.

Most startlingly, Mark Teixeira was hit in the elbow by Jeremy Guthrie. He was in obvious discomfort and was removed from the game immediately after it happened. While the pitch hit Teix directly on the bone, tests revealed that the result is only a contusion and he should be back in the lineup later this week. He opts not to wear protection on his elbow because he's never felt comfortable with an elbow pad and feels like he stands far enough away from the plate, but this was one of the rare times that decision came back to bite him.

Franciso Cervelli was hit by Guthrie later on in the night but was able to stay in the game. However, that didn't keep Joe Girardi from angrily yelling at Guthrie from the dugout after the incident occurred. He explained later, "If you’re having a hard time commanding the fastball inside, I don’t think this is the time to work on it". Not in his back yard, apparently. BANANA, others might say.

Girardi will have something to take his mind of his ailing squad today, however. Switch pitcher Pat Venditte will make the trip to Big League camp and pitch against the Braves in a split squad game at 1:05 tomorrow. Eat your heart out, Tony LaRussa.

The manager said he's wanted to see the ambidextrous reliever "all spring". It's as if Girardi has looked over his entire kingdom and commanded, "Bring me this Janus-armed freak so I can see him for myself!" The manager also likened this clip of Venditte maneuvering for the platoon advantage with a switch-hitting Mets prospect to a "Laurel and Hardy thing" revealing that he is either A) significantly older than he claims, B) a huge nerd or C) both.

Venditte is considered a fringe prospect at best but has had unquestionable success at every level of the minors he's been asked to pitch in. He's currently slated to begin the season in High A-ball (where he finished 2009) but as Neyer points out, if Girardi likes what he sees, Venditte might find himself climbing through the farm system faster than he would have otherwise.

He throws over-the-top in the low 90's from the right - which is his naturally dominant side - and takes a lower arm angle from the left, topping out in the mid-to-high 80's. There are plenty of guys that have his stuff like that in one arm at a time and being able to pitch both ways doesn't mean anything if you can't get Major League hitters out, but tomorrow could be a turning point in Venditte's career. There's no guarantee that he makes it into the game, but with CC Sabathia being limited to 75 pitches and Joe Girardi's self-proclaimed interest in him, there's a good chance. (The game will be on MLB.tv). Let's hope Venditte faces a few batters, does well and Girardi likes what he sees. If all of those things happen, we might be one step closer to seeing "The Freak" in The Bronx.

Joba Is Heading Back To The Bullpen

Joe Girardi wouldn't state it unequivocally when he talked to reporters this morning, but if you listen to the audio that Chad Jennings provided when it became official that Phil Hughes would be the 5th starter, it's pretty obvious what the plan for Mr. Chamberlain is.

At the 5:15 mark in the audio Girardi says, "Obviously, he's moving back to the bullpen, possibly, this year". Listen to it for yourself, but my read is that Girardi has already made up his mind. He awkwardly tags on that "possibly" because nothing has been officially announced yet, but the first part says it all.

As I laid out last Wednesday, I believe the best move for the future of the organization would be to send Joba to AAA to start the year if he wasn't given the 5th spot in the rotation. That way, he'd be able to work on skills specific to being a starting pitcher (controlling his pitch count, 3rd & 4th pitches, etc) and would be available on short notice in case of an injury to someone in the rotation. But that doesn't appear to be the plan.

Here are some relevant exchanges that I'm basing my conclusion on and my reactions to them.

Q (0:43): Joe, is Joba definitely going to be your 8th inning guy?

Girardi: You gotta earn it. And that's what I told 'em, you guys gotta earn your time and what you're gonna do. You don't just hand things over.

The reporter pretty much skips over whether or not Joba will be in the bullpen and asks what Joba's role will be in it. If his role was still up for debate, then would have been a good time to bring it up, but Girardi doesn't.

Q (5:24): Is there a chance [Joba] could go to the minors to start and keep him on the starting path?

Girardi: Umm... We gotta see how he does here, in the bullpen. And I said, there's no guarantees that if you were in that 5 man race that you are automatically going to the bullpen; in a sense you've gotta prove yourself.

So ironically, the better Joba pitches, the more likely it is that he will stay in the bullpen. I'm sorry, but that is ass-backwards.

Q (5:44): Joe, do you still see Joba, long-term, as a starter?

Girardi: You know, I think Joba could do either one. I really do. But now we think Phil's a little bit ahead of him as a starter.

Right now, Hughes is probably the better starting pitcher between them. However, I don't think Hughes being a better option than Joba all of a sudden means that Joba shouldn't be a starter. Girardi didn't address the "long term" aspect of the question and that's not a trivial consideration. I can understand the manager of a team only being concerned with this year, but I'm surprised Brian Cashman would be so short sighted.

Q (7:14): What's going to determine how you are going to fill out the rest of your bullpen?

Girardi: Well, we wanna take the 12 best guys. I think it's important to be best equipped. We're in a very difficult division, we're in a very difficult league.

And that's pretty much what it comes down to. Joba is clearly one of the 12 best arms in the system and the Yanks aren't willing to stash someone in Scranton who could be helpful to the Big League club now. That's a valid viewpoint. With both the Red Sox and Rays in legitimate contention for the division title, the Yanks don't think they can afford to leave one in the chamber. But how much is Joba worth to the Yanks in the bullpen?

In theory, removing Joba from the bullpen should cost the Yanks about one win this year. Is anyone willing to argue those 8 runs above replacement are worth sidetracking his development as a starter for?

The Yanks are certainly putting a lot of faith in the notion that a pitcher's career high in innings pitched is more important than how many they threw in the previous season. Hughes' career high in IP is 146, but that came in 2006. His cap for this year has been estimated at around 170, despite the fact that he threw just 105 last year.

Joba on the other hand, threw 167 last year and would have been free to throw upwards of 200 in 2010, if he could stay healthy and go deep into games. Now, if he stays in the bullpen for the whole season, it's unlikely that he'll end up with more than 70 or 80 IP. It's also unlikely that he'll be utilizing his curveball or changeup very often. He certainly won't be working on the very tough task of being efficient with his pitches over the course of a start, one of the things that held him back during his time in the rotation.

So where does that leave Joba for 2011? What if Javy Vazquez and Andy Pettitte are both gone and there is another opening in the rotation? Joba will be in a worse position to fill that spot than he was this spring.

Why not put Joba in the rotation in Scraton? He'd be a call-up away if the team needed a spot start or someone got hurt. Even if it goes well in AAA and there isn't an opening for him in the Bronx, they could call him up after the All-Star break and put him in the bullpen then. At least he would have a good amount of innings and some valuable starting experience under his belt.

Or perhaps, if/when he's called up, they could insert him into the rotation and shift Hughes to the bullpen. That way, Phil wouldn't run into his innings cap during the season like Joba did last year. Sure, they could stretch Joba out during the season if they needed to, but that didn't go too well for them last time, did it? (nods to the right)

We are still a week and a half away from the beginning of the season and a lot of things can and will change as the pages of the calendar turn. But I can't help but think that the Yankees are making the wrong decision.

Lackey And Vazquez

Even before John Lackey signed with the Red Sox for a deal nearly identical to the 5 year, $82.5M one that the Yankees gave A.J. Burnett a year prior, many saw the two as being very similar. Both pitchers are right handed, oft-injured about six and a half feet tall and around 30 years old with intimidating on-the-mound demeanors. Today, however, I wanted to compare Lackey to Javer Vazquez given their parallel entrance to the Yankees vs. Red Sox rivalry and their disparate reputations in regards to handling pressure.

Lackey has been in the league since 2002 and has averaged 188 innings per season since then. Over that same time period, Vazquez has averaged 215. Lackey's ERA is about a quarter of a run lower over stretch, but that's essentially erased by having to fill in those extra 27 innings a year with a replacement level pitcher.

In general, when John Lackey is healthy, he's a better pitcher than Javy Vazquez. But he's also the Red Sox highest paid player ($18M this year) and is expected to contribute to the top of their rotation. The Yankees are paying Vazquez only about 2/3 as much and hoping that he slots in as their number four.

But what about their reputations under pressure? The idea for that comparison between the two comes from fellow LoHud pinch hitter and editor at the Harvard Crimson, Yair Rosenberg. On Sunday, Yair dropped me an email with the following suggestion/request:

I think the more productive comparison for AL East purposes would not be to Pettitte or Glavine, but to Lackey, whose reputation is that of a big game pitcher, and who is essentially the corresponding addition to this year's Red Sox as Vasquez is to the Yankees. It would be really interesting to see if the stats bear out Lackey's clutch rep - and might go a long way towards predicting the key factors in the coming Yankees-Red Sox race. I'd love to see a post on that.

So here we go. Fighting in the red corner, we have John "Big Game" Lackey, the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the 2002 World Series and supposed consummate clutch performer as anointed by his former manager. In the blue corner is Javier "Can't Handle New York" Vazquez, the man responsible for one of the more infamous home runs in Yankee history, who was called out publicly by Ozzie Guillen for not stepping up when it counts.

There is no question as to who has the better postseason resume. Lackey was thrust into the spotlight at an early age, his team reaching the playoffs in his first season in the majors and asking him to start Game 7 of the World Series only four days after his 24th birthday. Since then, he's been back to the postseason 5 times and pitched a total of 78 innings to a 3.12 ERA.

Vazquez, on the other hand, was trapped on bad Expos teams (no offense, Jonah) for the first six years of his career, and didn't pitch during October until 2004. His performance in the postseason has been pretty dreadful (10.34 ERA), but he's only had a chance to throw 15 2/3 innings in the playoffs.

Do these reputations carry over into the regular season? Do their postseason resumes line up with how they handle pressure during games throughout the year? We know the answer to that question when it comes to Vazquez, as we have assessed his clutch reputation at length here and in other places.

That first and more in-depth inquiry into Vazquez's purported lack of clutchiferousness began with his FIP/ERA differential. Coincidentally, Lackey and Vazquez have identical 3.83 career FIPs. However, Lackey's career ERA is 3.81 while Vazquez's is 4.19. Leaving aside team defense - which would be very difficult to quantify over multiple years and teams - it's helpful to look at situational and leverage statistics when trying to explain FIP/ERA differentials.

There are some notable similarities between the Vazquez and Lackey in the chart to the right. Both pitch better with the bases empty than with runners on. They have similar tOPS+ distributions when the score of the game is within 4 runs.

Naturally, the biggest differences come in the smallest sample sizes. Lackey has done much better with the bases loaded than Vazquez and far worse when the game is out of hand.

Both Lackey's distributions are optimal and both are significant. If you could choose a situation to pitch your best in, it would be when the bases were loaded. If you had to give up runs, you would prefer to allow them when the margin of the game was greater than four runs. But there is a limit to how much these numbers can tell us. Lackey has only 141 plate appearances with the bases loaded while Vazquez has 163.

The sample sizes are larger for when the margin is greater than four (394 for Lackey, 811 for Vazquez) but those at bats are by definition less important. Lackey is obviously better in those situations, but not likely by as much as the numbers indicate.

What about the leverage index, though? While Lackey's numbers don't tell a coherent, progressive story like Vazquez's do, it's still clear that he pitches his worst in high leverage situations. Again, high leverage is based on the smallest sample size among the three levels, but each pitcher has over 1000 plate appearances to draw upon. So perhaps Lackey can't simply summon his best performances when the stakes increase.

If there was something about Lackey's internal constitution that gave him to ability to elevate his performance under pressure, wouldn't it show up in the leverage index? Shouldn't he be able to sense when the game is on the line and reach back for a little extra?

This contradiction begins to chip away not at Lackey's resume in particular but at the manufactured archetype of the "big game pitcher". It's one thing to have had good results in the postseason but it's another entirely to universally improve as the leverage increases. You can argue that the playoff results are more important, but Lackey has only faced 328 batters in postseason play. I think the regular season numbers tell us more.

While it may be convenient to label certain pitchers as big time performers and others as choke artists, they rarely fall neatly into one category or another. More correctly, there are players who have performed well in certain situations and others who have not.

As far as this season goes, it will be interesting to see who is better, Lackey or Vazquez. It's very likely that Lackey will have a lower ERA than Vazquez but based on their respective histories, Vazquez should be the better bet to throw more than 200 innings. However, perhaps this is the year that Vazquez's heroic workload over the past decade-plus catches up with him and it's also the first time in 3 years Lackey makes more than 30 starts.

Time will tell, but remember that the Yankees only need to get 2/3 the performance out of Vazquez to get as much value as the Sox do out of Lackey.

Self-Promotion Alert

None of this is new or earth-shattering, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention that I'm in the batter's box over at LoHud this morning with a distilled version of the post I wrote about Javier Vazquez's clutch ability a while back.

Also, we were listed in Big League Stew's Yankees blogbook. Check that out, not so much for our part, but for the other excellent Yanks' blogs that are listed.

And finally, Matt and I will be attending an event for the launch of Bloomberg's baseball software at their headquarters in Manhattan. There will be some some tweets emanating from the event under the hashtag #BBGSports, and I can promise a post on what we learned at some point in the near future.

Leave Old Timers Day As Is

As we suffer through the doldrums leading up to Spring Training, the LoHud Yankees Blog is currently going through their annual pinch hitting series. Yesterday's post came courtesy of Mark Braff, a veteran of every Yankees Old Timers Day since 1968.

Braff's premise is that the Yankees are doing a disservice to the event by making it a Yankee-only affair. Prior to the 1980s, Old Timers Day featured a team of Yankee greats against a team of baseball greats. Firstly, I'm insanely jealous the Mark has been lucky enough to attend the last 42 Old Timers Days. Secondly, I'm nearly as jealous that in doing so he had the opportunity not only to see Yankee greats but also the greats of other teams. And I'm on board with Mark's suggestion that the Yankees reinstate the tradition of flying the banners of past World Champions and pennant winners on Old Timers Day.

That said, I don't agree with the assertion that Old Timers Day should no longer be an all-Yankee affair. Yes, the days are gone when the Yankees could trot out all-time greats like DiMaggio and Mantle, or even franchise greats like Dickey, Keller, Henrich, Rizzuto, Howard, Maris, or Murcer. But that doesn't mean the Yankees don't have the clout to keep Old Timers Day an in house affair.

Perhaps the low end of the guest list is a bit thin, but for me at least, that's part of the appeal of Old Timers Day. When else would one remember the likes of Horace Clarke or Wayne Tolleson? Sure Aaron Small was a journeyman pitcher who logged all of 104 IP with the Yankees, but he also had a magical 10-0 run in the summer of 2005 as the Yankees surged back to capture the division. Yes, Brian Doyle hit .161/.201/.191 in 110 games over four seasons, but he went on a tear in the 1978 World Series, subbing for an injured Willie Randolph.

No one would ever take these guys over the HoFers from other teams, but they were Yankees. And when it comes down to Old Timers Day, that's all that matters to me. As more of the late nineties-early aughts dynasty hang up their spikes there will be more than enough memorable former Yankees to fortify the ranks and keep the event an all-Yankee affair.

Similar criticism was levied against the event last summer, and as I said then, I think the criticism is misplaced. The Yankees organization, the media that covers the team, and we as fans often get a little too self indulgent and congratulatory when it comes to Yankee history. But Old Timers Day is perhaps the one day where those traits are most justified. To my knowledge the Yankees are the only club that still celebrates a formal Old Timers Day annually. I wish other clubs would follow suit. And if some teams don't have enough players to bring back to form two teams, perhaps the Yankees could assemble a squad of former greats to go and help out.

(Photos from the Star-Ledger and the Daily News)

Jeter, Rose, Rodriguez & Record Projections

The question of whether or not Derek Jeter will pass Pete Rose's all-time hit mark is not a new one. From what I can find on these here internets, Rob Neyer addressed the possibility in a mailbag back in 2006 as Jeter was approaching 2,000 hits and was, like he is now, slightly outpacing Rose based on seasonal age and number of hits accumulated. It came up again in 2008 as he neared 2,500 hits and probably a few times in between.

Since then, essentially nothing has changed except the people who bring up the question - usually not bloggers but relative outsiders who haven't heard it discussed ad nasuem already. Back in that 2006 Neyer mailbag it was a reader named Yehuda Hyman and yesterday it was the pinch hitter at LoHud named Lucas Vanderwarker. Lucas's post got picked up over at Baseball Think Factory and Neyer got in on the action again, adding some new relevant assumptions to the equation:

Now, let's think about how Derek Jeter's career is likely to play out. One, everyone seems to think that Jeter will retire as a Yankee; that they'll do anything keep him around and that he won't be interested in playing elsewhere. Two, he's a shortstop. There's essentially no such thing as a 42-year-old shortstop. Three, the Yankees have Mark Teixeira under contract through 2016, when Jeter will be 42. They've also got Alex Rodriguez under contract through 2017, when Jeter will be 43.

David Pinto also chimed in, offering up Robin Yount as a comparable who, as a 35 year old was over 100 hits ahead of Rose but played only two more seasons and finished with 3,142 in total.

As Rose said Joe Posnanski, "You tell Derek the first 3,000 are easy". Of course, the implication is not that they're actually easy, but they're a lot easier than the next 1,256, which, as every other person ever to have played the game has figured out, is a true statement.

Jeter is 35 and a half years old and although we've seen very few indications to the contrary, the Cap'n is not invincible. No one is.

I learned this the hard way last year when I took issue with Nate Silver's projected home run totals for Alex Rodriguez, which predicted he'd end up with 730. I eventually ventured a guess as to what his career home run tally would be. I used an exhaustive 8 step methodology and arrived at the number 792. That involved a prediction of 42 for the 2009 season.

Much to my chagrin, not even two weeks later A-Rod was out in Colorado having surgery to repair a torn hip labrum, missed over a month of the season and had to hit two home runs in the same inning in Game 162 just to reach 30. Not only that, but his hip injury also cast serious doubt on his long term health.

While it's still a distinct possibility that A-Rod breaks Barry Bonds' Hank Aaron's record, it doesn't seem nearly as likely as it did just a year ago. But the picture is a lot rosier than it was the day after he had surgery. And that likelihood will probably fluctuate countless more times before he either breaks the record or retires.

I understand why fans like to talk about these far-flung possibilities and we are outrageously lucky to have two players on the Yankees pursing perhaps the two most hallowed career offensive records in Baseball. But at the same time, I'm not interested in reassessing what a projection system - using a bunch of players as comparables who, by definition didn't break the record - predicts the odds are that A-Rod or Jeter will reach that milestone every time one of them passes a round number, gets injured or the offseason news cycle grinds to a halt.

Projections can be a very useful tool in the right context but these kinds of records get broken on a very infrequent basis and only then by extreme statistical outliers. And besides, the left side of the infield still has a long, long road ahead.

Why We're Lucky To Have Brian Cashman

Our GM discussing the current free agent market for outfielders (via LoHud):

“How long it’s taking certain people to wake up and smell the coffee, that’s what surprises me,” Cashman said. “When you get on the phone with agents, they tell you one thing, and certain agents (cough)ScottBoras(cough) can’t honestly believe what they’re trying to convey. Do they think I’m stupid?”

Okay, I added the italics. But I love the fact that there is someone in charge of the Yankees who can correctly gauge the market and sees through the bullshit. He doesn't rush or panic and is impervious to the games that agents try to play.

So to answer your question, Steve, yes I think Cashman "would be an effective and successful G.M. of a major league baseball team if he had a team payroll budget to work with that was in the range of $100 to $120 million (and no more than that)".

Montero To Scranton

Good morning Fackers. When we profiled top prospect Jesus Montero two weeks ago, I speculated that he could start 2010 at AA Trenton before moving up to AAA Scranton some time around midseason. Yesterday, Chad Jennings reported that Yankees Vice President of Baseball Operations Mark Newman stated that the organization plans to have Montero start the year at Scranton as the regular catcher.

This serves as further evidence of the confidence the Yankees have in Montero. To have a 20 year old in AA is very rare, to have one in AAA - with less than a full season's experience at either AA or high A is nearly unheard of. Offensively at least, Montero hasn't encountered anything remotely resembling a challenge in his professional career. It will be interesting to see if that holds in the International League next year.

As we covered last week when Baseball America announced their top ten Yankee prospects, there is tremendous depth at catcher in the Yankee system. Starting Montero at AAA allows number two prospect Austin Romine to be the regular catcher at Trenton while highly regarded Kyle Higashioka slots in at low A Charleston. Other top prospects JR Murphy and Gary Sanchez will stay in extended spring training before being farmed out later in the season.

The one potential negative to Montero starting the year at AAA is that the organization will likely find it exceedingly difficult to stash a Major League caliber emergency catcher at Scranton. With the #3 prospect in all of baseball there and playing nearly everyday, no fringe player with Big League credentials is going to want to play back up / mentor to Montero. This is a minor point relative to Montero's development, but as we saw last year, it's tough enough for the Yankees to convince a decent emergency catcher to sign a minor league deal. Montero climbing another rung on the ladder will make this even harder.

With any luck the Yankees won't face a similar situation this year. But with Francisco Cervelli graduating to the back up job and Jose Molina presumably elsewhere, the Yankees likely won't have any sort of veteran back up plan in the event of an injury to either of their Major League catchers. If that were to occur, minor league veterans Chris Stewart or P.J. Pilittere would likely be first in line. Either that, or perhaps the Mets could loan them one of the seven back up catchers they've inked this off-season.


[UPDATE: Just after I finished writing this last night the Yankees signed Mike Rivera to a minor league contract. So just ignore those last two paragraphs]

Lunchtime Links

As Chad Jennings pointed out this morning, it's going to take a lot to top last Monday, but there are a few odds and ends (some from over the weekend) worth checking out.

Over the weekend, E.J. from The Yankee Universe advocated making Brett Gardner the Yankees everyday center fielder.

On the other hand, Joe Pawlikowski from River Ave. Blues compared Gardner to Scott Podsednik, warning against using projections to predict his production in 2010. Unfortunately, the latter of these two posts provides the more realistic assessment.

Mark Carig from the Star-Ledger asked a person who used to do statistical analysis for a major league club for their reaction to the Granderson deal. The first sentence: "What a deal".

According to the Daily News, the Yankees and the Cubs could be trading partners. Gardner or Melky Cabrera are the likely targets since the Cubbies are in need of a center fielder, but it's not clear what the Yankees would want in return. Carlos Zambrano's name was mentioned but the asking price was reportedly "high". Even higher is his salary, so file this one under "Things We Aren't Buying".

Joe Posnanski saw Up In The Air over the weekend and wrote an epic post about movies and travel inspired by it.

This morning, Lar from Wezen-Ball dug up an interview with an ex-Yankee from the well-respected Weekly World News.

Bill Madden says that their agents have left Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday and Jason Bay out in the cold by mis-reading the free agent market. Easy there Bill, it's not even Christmas yet.

The Post says that Cashman is hoping to acquire a starter by New Years and names Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro and Ben Sheets as targets. MLBTR adds a few more.

Sports Illustrated has an interview with Peter Gammons.

What Is Hip?

Former San Diego General Manager Kevin Towers will be attending this week's Winter Meetings and meeting with the Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, and Mets about an advisory role.

Towers was the subject of profiles in this morning's New York Times and in yesterday's San Diego Union Tribune. And, according to a report from FOX Sports' Tracy Ringolsby late yesterday, Towers is leaning towards accepting the Yankees' offer (h/t RAB, TYU, LoHud, and MLBTR).

Not only would landing Kevin Towers be directly beneficial to the Yankees' front office, but it would have the added benefit of keeping him out of the Boston front office, which has already lost Assistant GM Jed Hoyer and Scouting Director Jason McLeod, both of whom went to San Diego to replace Towers.

So where will Towers of power land? Tell me, tell me if you think you know.

Molina & Gardner In, Melky Move To Come

That's the news according to LoHud eminating from the press conference with Joe Girardi. Jose Molina will again be catching A.J. Burnett while Brett Gardner gets the start in center over Jerry Hairston, Jr., thankfully. The bottom third of the order was going to be a black hole one way or another, at least they have someone who is comfortable and excellent in center field and fast on the bases in Gardner, should he ever reach them.

Girardi also said that the Yanks are in discussions with the MLB in regards to a roster move with Melky Cabrera. We'll use this post to keep you updated on those developments and separate this stuff from the preview which is going up at 5:30.

Update: 5:26: Again, per LoHud, the Yankees will hear from the MLB concerning their roster move at 6PM.

Update 5:59: Ramiro Pena (not Freddy Guzman as we speculated earlier) will replace Melky Cabrera. Apparently the Yanks value Pena's versatility in the field over Guzman's speed on the bases. Pena has not appeared on the postseason roster at any point up until now but he may be thrust into action early. His best chance of appearing in a game will probably be tonight given that the Yanks are in a National League park and will likely be replacing Jose Molina at some point.

Update 6:27: Interesting tidbit from Mark Feinsand of which I was not aware:

According to the MLB press release, postseason rules provide that injured players can be replaced during the World Series if the severity of the injury, as determined by Major League Baseball, is such that it would require a disabled list assignment during the regular season.

Value Evaluation: CC or A-Rod

I doubt many people are going to remember who the ALCS MVP was a couple years from now. Postseason series MVPs are even more haphazardly given out than their regular season counterparts the BBWAA gets to vote on. As we had pretty much determined by Game 4, it was going to either A-Rod or CC Sabathia.

Last night as LoHud, Josh Thompson said "In no surprise to anyone, CC Sabathia was named MVP of the ALCS after winning both starts."

Um, I'll admit it. I'm a little surprised. A-Rod had a fantastic series and given how much the media loves stories of redemption, I had thought he would be the slight favorite to win. He put up huge numbers, and had clutch home runs, which I would think the media would value as much ro more than a guy who made two excellent starts.

Like everyone else, I don't really care who won the award, but I thought it would be interesting to look at who was more valuable in the series.

Here go the basic stats. A-Rod hit .429/.567/.952. That's a 1.519 OPS. He walked 8 times and struck out thrice. Three homers, six RBIs and six runs scored, meaning he was at the center of 9 of the Yanks' 33 runs in the series.

Sabathia started and won twice, going 8 innings and allowing one run each time. He had as many strikeouts (12) as walks (3) and hits (9) combined. An ERA of 1.12, a WHIP of 0.750.

Both guys put up numbers in the series that if you extrapolated to a full season would comfortably be the best of all time as a batter and pitcher respectively, I'm willing to say. I'm not sure of a place to get Wins or Runs Above Replacement data for a postseason series, so the best measure of comparing a pitcher to a position player would probably be WPA.

CC takes that one pretty handily which demonstrates the importance of an overpowering starting pitcher. With the Yankees' offense, he virtually assured them of two wins, the only two comfortable victories of the series.

A-Rod, on the other hand, had a hit in every game and was on base twice or more in all except Game 2, when of course he blasted a game-tying home run in the bottom of the 11th when the Yanks were down to their last breath. In Game 5, where he was at .005 in WPA, he still had a hit and two walks.

You can't go wrong with either of these guys obviously, and even A-Rod magnanimously said that CC deserved it. These are nice issues to be able to sort through, aren't they? Everybody wins!

A Fine Fall Day

("Not going to school on Wednesday, going to the World Series")

Good morning, Fackers. It's a fine one to be a supporter of the New York Baseballing Yankees, wouldn't you say? According to the folks over a LoHud, the Yanks didn't hold much back last night. It's alright, they've got almost three full days to shake it off.

Fittingly, a sloppily contested game replete with dubious managerial moves topped off a series that might be remembered for both of those things. The only thing missing was an egregiously wrong call by an umpire. The "fundamentally sound" Angels had Vlad Guerrero picked off of first base on what should have been a routine play in the 3rd and made two errors on plays when the Yankees were handing them outs in the 8th inning.

As for the managing, the questionable decision making began in the 4th inning. Following singles by Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano, the Yanks asked Melky Cabrera to sacrifice them over to second and third. I know what Girardi was thinking. Pass the baton to Jeter and hope he singles home a few runs. But Saunders was on the ropes and looked nothing short of terrible. Timely hitting was the only thing between the Yankees and a sizable lead at that point. I can see that move in the later innings or against a dominant pitcher, maybe, but to do it in the 4th inning against a guy in Saunders who had been pitching terribly to that point doesn't make sense.

If you look at this run expectancy matrix, you'll see that a successful bunt in this spot would have even decreased the Yankees chances to score exactly one run, increased their odds of plating two or three but decreased their odds of having a bigger inning. The way Saunders was pitching, I wouldn't discount the possibility of the latter.

So despite Girardi's best efforts to avoid delivering the knockout blow, the Yankees still loaded the bases for Johnny Damon who drove two home, and re-loaded them via a single from Teixeira for A-Rod. Mike Sciosica left (southpaw) Joe Saunders in to face A-Rod with the bases loaded in the 4th inning. At the time, Saunders had faced 21 batters and allowed 11 to reach base (with one of the 10 retired coming on a sac bunt). That's who you want facing the other team's best hitter with the bases loaded in an elimination game? Saunders of course walked A-Rod on an incredibly close pitch, forcing in a run.

I disagreed with the way Joe Girardi's chose to pull his starter as well. After getting Howie Kendrick to line out, Pettitte gave up a single to Juan Rivera on a pitch that was high but over the middle of the plate. At that point, Pettitte had thrown only 99 pitches and induced 9 ground balls. He was one pitch away from getting out of the inning but Girardi went to his bullpen for David Robertson. Oh wait, no he didn't. Phil Hughes. Err, no. He went to Joba Chamberlain for some reason known only to him. Ostensibly because he believes that it's still 2007.

Girardi had apparently already made up his mind that he was going to use Mariano Rivera for 6 outs, so why did he pick Joba over Hughes? Or Robertson? We were told this week that there was nothing wrong with Hughes and that it was a simple mechanical issue. Robertson was solid during the regular season and perfect in the postseason. Joba has been neither of those things. He's given up 5 hits in 2 2/3 postseason IP and was not effective when last seen as a starter. What makes Girardi think that he's the guy you want in when the game is on the line?

Of course, Girardi also tried desperately to give away outs in the 9th inning when the Yankees were leading by 1, not once but twice, however the Angels simply wouldn't let him.

But hey, all's well that ends well, right?

I personally had a pretty sweet day as well. I played in a golf tourament at a Donald Ross track called The Sagamore in Lake George, my team won by 4 shots, I took home longest drive and won the 50/50 raffle (and didn't donate it, sorry Bolton Booster Club!). I got home a little bit after first pitch and Big Willie Style had taken the liberty of setting his TV up on a table beneath the 46" so we could watch the Yankees and Giants at the same time. It came at the expense of the internet and therefore active Twittering, but it was a necessary trade off.

Only the top TV had the audio on, so we flipped to the Giants game on when there was action and the Yankees were at commercial (Black taco! Apparently blue corn tortillas are black now. Who knew?). At one point, within about 20 seconds of each other, Hakeem Nicks lucked into a touchdown catch on a crazy deflection for the Giants and Johnny Damon rapped an 2 RBI single for the Yanks. It was worth the trouble just for that.

The Giants were mounting a possible game-tying drive that got derailed when Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled struggling for some extra yards. You can't win 'em all, and that was pretty much the only loss I took yesterday.

Girardi's Biggest Mistake

Joe Girardi has made some questionable decisions throughout this season and they've occurred at a much higher rate during the postseason. There were several short essays written about his tendencies yesterday over here. Most of of the debate focused on pitching changes and other substitutions, but his (and Brian Cashman's) biggest error may have come in roster construction:

sbarro philly foot sausage 8:31 am
I mentioned this yesterday, but I am still intrigued to hear what everyone thinks.
I have a question: do you all think that maybe Girardi made a mistake in not adding Cody Ransom to the roster?

I had an idea last night, that Cody could potentially be inserted as a pinch runner who could steal home or score in a squeeze play at the plate.

Here’s my thinking: the man can jump from a standing position atop a 60 inch box. When the throw reaches the catcher, the catcher would be in a squatted reach position to tag the runner, in this case, Cody Ransom. But Cody could simply take the catcher by surprise, jump over him and touch the plate.

What do you guys think? I think it would work, and could be one of the most spectacular plays since the 2001 Jeter shovel pass to Posada in the ALDS

The only appropriate response is this.

Checking In With The Best Fans In The World

Yesterday Mike Lupica declared Yankees fans the best in the world, not just the MLB. We took exception to that, and figured that today would be a good day to reassess that statement.

Let's see how these unparalleled, die-hard, loyal, knowledgeable and passionate fans dealt with their first loss in 17 days (all [sic'd], obviously). Enjoy:

Gardner in CF 8:36 pm
melky didn’t even go after that. i hope he never puts on a Yankees uniform again.

Mark B 8:38 pm
Torre would not have made that error….Girardi better learn from the mistake and move on tomorrow

Howie 8:40 pm
Girardi manages like a kid who found his Fathers gun.

EY 8:42 pm
Here’s a suggestion.

Take out Aceves and add Bruney.

swish 8:44 pm [Presumably not the actual Nick Swisher]
If they go on to lose the series i hope they fire Girardi.

What an awful display of managing.

Asseves sucks and he is the last to know! Wow.

Joker, The 8:44 pm
I hate Girardi. My dog could manage better than him. And as for Cano, Swisher, and Melky? They can all go to hell.

100 pitches of fun... 8:45 pm
Girardi is CLEARLY in over his head in these games. He is “choking” more than Arod ever did from 04-07. It’s almost like he gets too nervous and doesn’t know what to do.

H.E.PennyPacker 8:46 pm
Fire Girardi. He is incompetent.

Jeana 8:49 pm
I would bench Melky tomorrow….really. And Cano….I don’t even know WHAT to say about his performance.

Upstate 8:53PM
[About Melky] Lazy, overrated, pudgy, idiot who swings at crap – every time !!!

haiku-man 8:57 pm
Why did Joe walk to the mound so much?He has others that can relay his message. We never seen the pitch coach. I HOPE HE CAN’T SLEEP...

Oh no, Joe G over-managing again 9:00 pm
Joe Girardi needs to get fired for the sins he committed today….
This is even worse than Grady Little….
GOD AWFUL

CR9 9:01 pm
While I will not blame Girardi for using Aceves, I have come to my final opinion on Aceves. He cannot and should not be used anymore this postseason. I would rather have Jerry Hairston Jr. pitching than Ace. Aceves is a worthless bum.

On a side note, did anyone notice the 15 cheap calls at least on the right side of the plate in favor of the Angels...

The Ghost 9:06 pm
The thing that Joe needs to learn about the post season is that some guys have the gut for it and some don’t. He should be able to look in a players eyes before the game and know if they could be of any use to him. The eyes can never lie. When a guy like Drob is feeling it you have to milk it for all its worth.

Trevor 9:07 pm
Explain to me how this years offense is better in the playoffs now then years past?
Outside of Arod and Jeter they look no different then typical October Yankee offense: Can’t get sac fly’s, can’t hit with RISP, can’t bunt except for Jeter….
The offense absolutely sucks right now and I’m wondering will they get out of it the rest of the way.

Oh no, Joe G over-managing again 9:07 pm
Aceves should never be used again in the postseason.

Every time he comes in, we give up a run.

Fire Girardi, bench Melky and Aceves, and we win WS.

KarlHungus212 9:08 pm
Every single person watching the ballgame not named Girardi knew it was idiotic to take Robertson out after facing two batters, easily retiring them. Girardi must go regardless of the outcome of the rest of the postseason.

Jeremy 9:10 pm
Tex was a loser of the game. Yeah he helped save some runs and made some great plays but he was horrible at the plate. It’s like he never saw a breaking pitch in his life. The same goes for Cano, Swisher, and Cabrera. All losers of the game.

100 pitches of fun... 9:16 pm
Is the $180m 1st baseman actually going to show up tomorrow? Or is he trying to take Arod’s old job.

CR9 9:18 pm
There is a reason why the Red Sox were able to easily sweep 2 World Series and come back from 3-0 and 3-1 defecits and 2-0 deficits in Division Series. They do not get their ABs changed by umpires cheap calls.

We have had to work for every win this postseason. Nothing has come easy, mainly due to the HP umpires...

KarlHungus212 9:19 pm
JoeT, regular season is not what counts in New York. Girardi has proven to everybody that he is in over his head managing this team. A meat popsicle could have managed this team to a division title.

NOW is when it counts and Joe has managed worse than anybody I’ve seen in my life.

And finally, I believe that "dave c." here may be advocating some form of terrorism...

dave c. 9:21 pm

Even we are up 2-1, we are not going to win the series… not unless someone blows up Angels stadium.

Series over. Angels in 6 games.

July 10, 2009, Yankees led 4-0, Angels won.
July 11, 2009, Yankees led 4-0, Angels won.
October 19, 2009, Yankees led 3-0, Angels won.

Hmmm... quite the convincing argument he puts forth. The Angels have comeback against the Yankees two other times this season, therefore the Yankees are going to lose the next three games. Brilliant.

Quite the resilient fan base, huh? One loss and Girardi is no better "meat popsicle" and should be fired either immediately or after they lose this series (which they inevitably will). "Asseves" can never be used in the postseason again (and/or somehow be replaced by Brian Bruney despite rules to the contrary). Three starting position players can "go to hell" and Melky should never play for the Yankees again. Despite several huge and potentially game-saving defensive plays, Mark Teixeria is a loser. Even though the Yanks are 5-1 in the postseason, the umps are screwing us. And most devastatingly, the series is now officially over.

BEST. FANS. EVVVARRR!!!11!1!

The Best Fans In The World?

That's what Mike Lupica is calling Yankees fans this morning:

There aren't fans better than this anywhere in the world. This isn't about whether or not you love the Yankees. This is about Yankee fans.

There are other baseball fans in other cities, of course, Mets fans in this one. There are fans who come out strong for teams who haven't won the way the Yankees won, who don't make the playoffs just about every year the way the Yankees have since Joe Torre first came to town 13 years ago and the winning came back to the Yankees and the Bronx.

But no fans have ever supported a baseball team, the most famous team in this world, the way Yankee fans support theirs.

We constantly hear this praise heaped upon us. Derek Jeter said it in his final speech at the Old Stadium. Michael Kay would like you to believe that Yankee fans are the only ones in baseball that cheer in anticipation of anything. I know I've heard John Sterling say that Yankee fans are the best in the world on the radio broadcast as well. But all of those guys have great reason to pander to fan base, and along with fans themselves trying to compare themselves to followers of other teams, that's all these declarations ever come down to.

It's pretty much impossible to compare fan bases, just as it would be to compare other groups which contain millions of people to each other. Are people from Vermont more laid back then people from New Hampshire? Are Baptists more religious than Evangelists? Are BMW drivers more alert than those who own an Audi? Are people who drink Bud Light cooler than those who drink Coors? (Trick question, they both suck!) The only way to deal with groups that big is to look at them with sweeping generalizations or compare them anecdotally.

The Yankees have some great fans, no doubt, but they also have their fair share of supporters who expect everything and are ready to jump ship two losses into the season. We might have some of the best fans in baseball right now, but that's largely because the ownership and players have given us ample compensation in return for our support. The Yanks only regained their place atop MLB attendance in 2003. There are plenty of factors contributing to how many fans the Yanks draw to games like the logistics of trying to go to a game after work in NYC and price of parking once you get there, but let's not pretend that the Stadium have been selling out through thick and thin.

I'll give you one measure that I find to be interesting, however. There are far more blogs about the Yankees' than any other team. We've got a decent amount linked up over on our Blogshelf, but check out this post by Ross at New Stadium Insider or run down the sidebar at LoHud. There are a huge amount of people that feel compelled to write about the Yankees (most of them for free) and I think that tells us something.

Maybe that something is that the Yankees have been more successful and compelling over the last 15 years than any other team in baseball. And maybe the fact that Yankees fans are so dedicated to the team isn't a function of how great we are as fans, but how successful the team has been over that time. Following the Yankees is easy. The people who follow teams like the Royals, Reds or Pirates through thick and thin are the best fans in baseball, in my opinion.

Molina To Catch Burnett In ALDS

Via LoHud, according to Posada, that's what the plan is. Head on over there for audio with Posada, the relevant questioning starts around the 3:50 mark. He doesn't sound too happy, but he doesn't sound too surprised, either.

Thanks, But That Would Be A Complete Waste Of A Roster Spot...

Good morning, Fackers. Last night, a suddenly contrite and shockingly self-actualized Joba Chamberlain told reporters that he would "fold towels" if that's what it took to win with the Yankees during the postseason.

Aside from the towel quote that Sam Borden transcribed in his post, here is another exchange that caught my ear from the audio he provided.

Joba: You know, I didn't have fastball command at all. It could have been a lot worse than it was but it was just lack of fastball command from the get-go... Mechanics-wise, I wasn't great. My delivery wasn't great and the delivery affects your command in every aspect.

Kim Jones: You were so good your last time out. How do you explain the inconsistency?

Joba: If I had an explanation, I could probably fix, you know, quicker than things go. That's part of this game and that's why people go in and do bullpen work and look at watch video and figure out what you can do better.

So he did have a bad outing because the players on the other team were "great hitters" or "a couple pitches" that went wrong as he claimed in the past.

Perhaps this is only because the Royals are astoundingly bad at hitting, but more likely it's that someone with the Yankees organization finally explained to Mr. Chamberlain how the media works. They aren't your parents trying to get you to admit your shortcomings as a way to make you take responsibility for them. Reporters need to pair your performance with a reaction so they can write a story about it that conveys what happened to the fans and get the fuck out of there. That process doesn't work when you give up 7 runs and say everything is fine and dandy.

It turns out that Joba wasn't just a delusional headcase, unable to acknowledge his mistakes. He was a kid from Nebraska being forced to come to terms with his failures in front of cameras and reporters with microphones and was getting a little defensive.

Joba mostly dodged questions about about his place on the postseason roster but made clear with his offer to do the work of a clubhouse attendant that he's not going to pout about being used out of the bullpen. I personally think that he is still enough of an asset to warrant occupying a spot on the postseason roster. I'd prefer a hypothetical ALCS Game 4 start to be made by Chad Gaudin and backed by Alfredo Aceves but Joba is still a better option to pitch an inning or two out of the bullpen than Brian Bruney. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but Joba seems to find his stroke when the pressure builds; Bruney just walks a lot of guys.

Since today is an off day, it's conceivable that Girardi uses Chamberlain sometime during the last two games of the Tampa Bay series to get him an inning or two out of the 'pen if indeed they plan on bringing him along for the ALDS. It would give him 3 or 4 days of rest which should be enough to free him up for a limited number of pitches.

I'm a lot less worried about Chamberlain's role in the postseason than I was a week or two ago, though. He's going to be one the the least important players not named Eric Hinske on the postseason roster if he is even ultimately included on it. The Yanks have won 102 games this year in spite of Joba, not because of him.