A Fine Fall Day

("Not going to school on Wednesday, going to the World Series")

Good morning, Fackers. It's a fine one to be a supporter of the New York Baseballing Yankees, wouldn't you say? According to the folks over a LoHud, the Yanks didn't hold much back last night. It's alright, they've got almost three full days to shake it off.

Fittingly, a sloppily contested game replete with dubious managerial moves topped off a series that might be remembered for both of those things. The only thing missing was an egregiously wrong call by an umpire. The "fundamentally sound" Angels had Vlad Guerrero picked off of first base on what should have been a routine play in the 3rd and made two errors on plays when the Yankees were handing them outs in the 8th inning.

As for the managing, the questionable decision making began in the 4th inning. Following singles by Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano, the Yanks asked Melky Cabrera to sacrifice them over to second and third. I know what Girardi was thinking. Pass the baton to Jeter and hope he singles home a few runs. But Saunders was on the ropes and looked nothing short of terrible. Timely hitting was the only thing between the Yankees and a sizable lead at that point. I can see that move in the later innings or against a dominant pitcher, maybe, but to do it in the 4th inning against a guy in Saunders who had been pitching terribly to that point doesn't make sense.

If you look at this run expectancy matrix, you'll see that a successful bunt in this spot would have even decreased the Yankees chances to score exactly one run, increased their odds of plating two or three but decreased their odds of having a bigger inning. The way Saunders was pitching, I wouldn't discount the possibility of the latter.

So despite Girardi's best efforts to avoid delivering the knockout blow, the Yankees still loaded the bases for Johnny Damon who drove two home, and re-loaded them via a single from Teixeira for A-Rod. Mike Sciosica left (southpaw) Joe Saunders in to face A-Rod with the bases loaded in the 4th inning. At the time, Saunders had faced 21 batters and allowed 11 to reach base (with one of the 10 retired coming on a sac bunt). That's who you want facing the other team's best hitter with the bases loaded in an elimination game? Saunders of course walked A-Rod on an incredibly close pitch, forcing in a run.

I disagreed with the way Joe Girardi's chose to pull his starter as well. After getting Howie Kendrick to line out, Pettitte gave up a single to Juan Rivera on a pitch that was high but over the middle of the plate. At that point, Pettitte had thrown only 99 pitches and induced 9 ground balls. He was one pitch away from getting out of the inning but Girardi went to his bullpen for David Robertson. Oh wait, no he didn't. Phil Hughes. Err, no. He went to Joba Chamberlain for some reason known only to him. Ostensibly because he believes that it's still 2007.

Girardi had apparently already made up his mind that he was going to use Mariano Rivera for 6 outs, so why did he pick Joba over Hughes? Or Robertson? We were told this week that there was nothing wrong with Hughes and that it was a simple mechanical issue. Robertson was solid during the regular season and perfect in the postseason. Joba has been neither of those things. He's given up 5 hits in 2 2/3 postseason IP and was not effective when last seen as a starter. What makes Girardi think that he's the guy you want in when the game is on the line?

Of course, Girardi also tried desperately to give away outs in the 9th inning when the Yankees were leading by 1, not once but twice, however the Angels simply wouldn't let him.

But hey, all's well that ends well, right?

I personally had a pretty sweet day as well. I played in a golf tourament at a Donald Ross track called The Sagamore in Lake George, my team won by 4 shots, I took home longest drive and won the 50/50 raffle (and didn't donate it, sorry Bolton Booster Club!). I got home a little bit after first pitch and Big Willie Style had taken the liberty of setting his TV up on a table beneath the 46" so we could watch the Yankees and Giants at the same time. It came at the expense of the internet and therefore active Twittering, but it was a necessary trade off.

Only the top TV had the audio on, so we flipped to the Giants game on when there was action and the Yankees were at commercial (Black taco! Apparently blue corn tortillas are black now. Who knew?). At one point, within about 20 seconds of each other, Hakeem Nicks lucked into a touchdown catch on a crazy deflection for the Giants and Johnny Damon rapped an 2 RBI single for the Yanks. It was worth the trouble just for that.

The Giants were mounting a possible game-tying drive that got derailed when Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled struggling for some extra yards. You can't win 'em all, and that was pretty much the only loss I took yesterday.

ALCS Game 6: Just Like Tom Thumb's Blues

After a fairly interminable wait, the Yankees will play their 8th game in 21 days this evening. Postseason baseball might be different because of the colder weather, lower scoring and the level of tension, but it's also unique in its infrequency. It's tedious for us fans to wait out these delays but it's probably equally unnatural for the players - who are accustomed to playing nearly every day - to take the field about one-third as often. The games themselves are made up primarily of lulls in the action, but they occur with such regularity that it's tough to swallow when the most anticipated games of the year are the most sporadically dispersed.

The Angels might have snatched the momentum back when Brian Fuentes got Nick Swisher to pop out to end Game 5, but said force was then flown across country, beaten down with cold and rain and put on the shelf for another day. The Bombers are back in the Bronx and now retain the homefield advantage that they've used so successfully to their advantage this year. They've only lost back to back games at home once since the middle of June, over which time they've sported a gaudy .782 winning percentage.

Joe Saunders takes the Angels' season into his hands tonight. The Yankees couldn't get much going against him in Game 2 at the Stadium, mustering only six hits, a walk and two runs in 7 innings. He left the game with the score tied but the Yanks of course rallied in the 13th inning to take a two game lead to Anaheim.

Mike Scioscia's decision to go with Saunders in Game 2 was widely questioned, but it's looking pretty good at this point. Instead of Scott Kazmir, who the Yanks smacked around in Game 4, Saunders will be trusted with the Angels' season on the line, which looks like a significantly better proposition with the benefit of hindsight.

The Yanks send their own lefty to the mound tonight, Andy Pettitte. He had a shaky start in Game 3 in Anaheim, allowing 7 hits and 3 ER in 6 1/3 IP while striking out only 2 batters. Tonight he'll be put in the same position he succeeded in during the Minnesota series; starting a game with the chance to advance the Pinstripes to the next round.

River Ave. Blues took a look at Pettitte's performances in previous opportunities to seal up playoff series yesterday and our old friend PeteAbe was there to shore up the analysis. By Pete's count, Pettitte has a 4.14 ERA and his teams are 6-4 in those games, including his time in Houston. Not sparkling by any stretch but not too bad either.

The return home for the Yanks coincides nicely with the song for tonight. Bob Dylan recorded Just Like Tom Thumb's Blues for the album Highway 61 Revisited in New York only three days after controversial and much maligned Newport Folk Festival appearance. On July 29th, 1965, Dylan made the fairly brash artistic statement of playing a set with an electric guitar and members of the Paul Butterfield Blues Band. After a chilly reception, he stopped and walked offstage after his third song, Like A Rolling Stone, and was serenaded with boos from the crowd.

The most common explanation for the reception was that the crowd was not pleased with his choice of an electric guitar but alternatively, it has been said that they were annoyed with the length of the set. Regardless, there was much angst among the fans in attendance - even some of Dylan's supporters.

While backstage, Dylan was convinced to finish the set by festival MC Peter Yarrow and singer Joan Baez. He finished his set with three acoustic tunes and the same fans who had booed him off the stage earlier showered him with applause and pleaded for an encore. Fans can be a fickle bunch, can't they?

The song is about returning to New York from an especially bleak trip out West ("When you're lost in the rain in Juarez"). It appropriately has six verses and the final and most appropriate one - about going back to New York under dubious circumstances - is quoted below.

I started out on burgundy,
But soon hit the harder stuff,
Everybody said they'd stand behind me,
When the game got rough,
But the joke was on me,
There was nobody even there to call my bluff,
I'm going back to New York City,
I do believe I've had enough.

ALCS Game 2: Gambler's Roll

Weather permitting, the Yankees and Angels will play Game Two of the American League Championship Series tonight. While the weather tonight shouldn't be any colder than last night, the chance of rain is much greater, as there is a nasty looking storm system sitting southwest of the city and heading towards the Stadium. If they can't go tonight, word is the make up would be scheduled for Sunday afternoon at 4:30.

With Game Three currently slated for Monday afternoon in Anaheim at 4:13 EDT, both teams would like to avoid playing Sunday if at all possible. Getting the game in tonight will give the teams a full day to rest following the cross country flight. The Yankees particularly will want to get tonight's game in though, as a rainout tonight would mean that if A.J. Burnett were to come back to pitch a potential Game Five, as is the current plan, he would be doing so on just three days rest. If the Yankees elect not to pitch Burnett under those conditions, it would likely result in Chad Gaudin matching up against Angels' ace John Lackey.

As we saw in Game Five of last year's World Series, Major League Baseball's now-official policy is that once a post-season game begins, it will be played to its completion. So even if the game begins tonight, it may not end until sometime tomorrow. And given that at present tomorrow's forecast is worse than tonight's, I imagine every effort will be made to get this game played this evening. In the post-season starting the game becomes the decision of MLB, not the home team as in the regular season, but I'm confident MLB will roll the dice and try to get this one in tonight.

MLB won't be the only ones taking a gamble with their decisions tonight, as both managers have made unorthodox line up decisions that, if they don't work out, could potentially place them in a media storm as intense as anything brewing in the Tri-State area right now. As we examined on Thursday, Joe Saunders will take the hill for the Halos and Jose Molina will be behind the dish for the Yankees.

As we saw last night, John Lackey struggled to get a feel for his curveball in the frigid conditions. Earlier today, the Yankees Universe predicted that Saunders would have similar problems tonight giving A.J. Burnett an edge, while over at LoHud John Flaherty thinks the weather will have a bigger impact on Burnett's arsenal. So I'm not sure what to think on this one.

Weather aside, I think the Yankees have the edge in the pitching match up. A.J. Burnett posted better numbers than Joe Saunders this year and has a better track record. Again, as we mentioned earlier this week, Saunders gave up the second most HR in the AL this year and had the second highest HR rate. Last night was just the second time in 86 games that Yankee Stadium did not yield a long ball. Maybe the weather supresses power again tonight, or maybe the combination of Saunders and the ballpark makes up for last night.

Saunders faced the Yankees twice this year, both in Anaheim. He allowed 11 baserunners and 5 ER in 5 IP in taking a no decision on July 10th, then went 8.1 IP with just 7 baserunners and 2 ER in getting the win on September 21st, giving him a line of 1-0 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 13.1 IP. He gave up two home runs to Alex Rodriguez and one to Hideki Matsui. Saunders did not appear in this year's Division Series, but had a disastrous start (4.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB) in last year's series against Boston.

A.J Burnett made two starts against the Angels this year, on April 30th in the Bronx and in season series finale in Anaheim on September 23rd. In the first game he allowed 4 ER in 7 IP and received a no decision. In the second he went just 5.2 innings but allowed just two runs, fanned 11, and picked up the win. He made his first career post-season start in Game Two of the ALDS and allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP. He did issue five free passes though after leading the AL in walks this year; look for Bobby Abreu and his minions to attempt to exploit that tonight.

As mentioned, Jose Molina will catch Burnett again. Hideki Matsui remains the DH, which is a wise move since he destroys lefties. This will allow the Yankees to insert Jorge Posada directly into the game when Molina is inevitably pinch hit for at some point. Molina will bat ninth, with Nick Swisher taking Posada's customary six spot and Melky Cabrera moving up to eighth.

This will be an interesting one. If the weather doesn't postpone the game, it still has the potential to delay the game deep into the night and to be factor for pitchers, fielders, and batted balls. Saunders, coming off a lackluster season, gets the Game Two nod over ALDS Game Two starter Jered Weaver and over a better lefty in Scott Kazmir. Jose Molina once again plays over the far offensively-superior Jorge Posada. MLB, Scioscia, and Girardi are all taking their turns rolling the dice tonight. Here's hoping that the Yankees are the ones with the hot hand.



You know the gambler he rides, rides on a fool's train
Trading silver for gold
But his luck will change, time takes its toll
On a gambler's roll

Two Thoughts On Game Two

I know Game One isn't even until tomorrow, but here are two thoughts on the two hot button issues from this post-season, both of which affect Game Two (weather permitting).

First, Mike Scioscia's decision to pitch Joe Saunders in Game Two has been widely questioned, and with good reason in my opinion. I understand Scioscia's desire to utilize a lefty in Yankee Stadium in order to neutralize the Yankee lefties and switch hitters, since Yankee Stadia have historically favored lefties.

However, this Yankee Stadium has been a launching pad of historic proportions through its first 85 games. And as I pointed out when Saunders pitched against the Yanks three weeks ago, he is particularly prone to giving up the gopher ball. Saunders surrendered 29 long balls this year, tied for second in the American League despite the fact that an August DL stint limited him to 186 IP on the year. His 1.4 HR/9 also tied for second worst in the AL. Meanwhile, fellow lefty Scott Kazmir has more experience in the new Yankee Stadium, is a better pitcher overall, and allowed just 1.0 HR/9 this year, slightly less than league average.

A further thought regarding Saunders, Yankee batters this year hit .282/.360/.476 against right handed pitching and a slightly better across the board .286/.365/.480 against left handed pitching. There's no discernible platoon advantage there. The Angels would be best off throwing their best available pitcher in Game Two, and that pitcher is not Joe Saunders.

The second issue is whether Jose Molina will again catch A.J. Burnett. The Yankees have yet to announce that decision, though I'm inclined to believe that he will. But, even if he doesn't, I think we may see a bit of Jose Molina in this series anyway. Despite ranking just 11th in the AL in SB%, the Angels ranked third in the league in stolen bases with 148. In an effort to neutralize their running game, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jose Molina behind the plate in the late innings of game if the Yankees are leading.

This happened once already this year, early in the season in this game. Afterwards, Jorge Posada left the park without addressing the media. If this were to happen in the ALCS, the media storm would dwarf the Molina-gate squall that preceded Game Two of the ALDS.

I'm not sure what to make of this one. No one is going to confuse Jorge Posada with vintage Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate. And Posada shouldn't put his ego ahead of the good of the team. But, given that the Angels were below average in SB% and that all Yankee catchers, including Posada, were above league average CS%, it might be to the Yankees' advantage to tempt the Angels to give outs away on the bases.

Furthermore, if you subtract out caught stealings attributed to the pitcher making a pickoff attempt, Jorge Posada's catcher's caught stealing percentage of 21.6% is close to the league average of 21.9% and superior to Jose Molina's 17.9%. In fact, though the sample size is relatively small, the numbers suggest that if the Yankees decide to make a running based defensive substitution behind the plate, the nod should go to Franciso Cervelli who had an off the charts catcher's caught stealing percentage of 38.1% (8 of 21) in the equivalent of about 27 games behind the dish.

Tell Me Something Good

Good morning, Fackers. Let me give you two scenarios and tell me which one you would prefer:

#1: Andy Pettitte pitches poorly, lasting just 4 innings and gets tagged for six runs. The Yankees bats pick him up though, scoring eight of their own and walking away with the victory.

#2: Pettitte stumbles out of the gate, but at one point retires 11 consecutive batters, giving up three runs over six innings. The offense finally has a bad night against Joe Saunders and the Yanks come up short.

Okay, by now you probably already know what happened in the game and this exercise is pretty transparent. But the point is that Andy Pettitte finding his form without any soreness was more important than winning last night, although both would have been nice.

Pettitte actually had two outs and the bases empty after Chone Figgins got caught stealing in the first inning but he gave up a single to Bobby Abreu and then back to back doubles to Vlad Guererro and Torii Hunter to approximately the same spot in the gap in right-center. That string of hits drive in two runs and put the Yanks in the hole 2-0.

During the string of 11 straight batters the retired, Pettitte also made a nice reflex-type play on a liner back up the middle by Eric Aybar. Andy poked his glove out, stopping the ball and then dove to his knees and fired to first to get the speedy Aybar (who leads the league in bunt singles), just in time.

Pettitte's only other run came in the 5th inning when he walked Rob Quinlan on a 3-2 breaking ball that was just a little bit high. Quinlan ended up on third after a single by Jeff Mathis and a sac fly by Figgins and scored on a single by Aybar.

Pettitte was pulled after throwing 91 pitches and had this to say about his performance after the game, "Everything was good after the first inning. My cutters were hard, I felt like. I was getting balls back down in the zone, my two-seamer. Everything was running like I wanted it to."

In relief of Andy, Brain Bruney continued his quest to not make the postseason roster by serving up a solo homer to Kendry Morales in the 7th along with a single to Chone Figgins. Jon Albaladejo gave up another run in the 8th as well.

Joe Saunders had given up 18 runs in 20 1/3 innings against the Yankees coming into last night's game. He's a far better pitcher than that, and you might say that he was due for a better performance against the Bombers. The Yanks grounded into two double plays and only had three at bats with runners in scoring position, and came up empty on all of them.

The Yankees two runs came in the form of solo homers, one by A-Rod in the 7th inning as he continued to mash at the Big A. The next was the first pinch hit home run of Hideki Matsui's career in the 8th inning. It was yet another blast off a left hander by Matsui this year but it wasn't enough to bring the Yanks back in the game, even if the bullpen had done their job. Nick Swisher narrowly missed a HR in the bottom of the 9th, and Robby Cano came to the plate representing the tying tun, but the Yanks fell short, 5-2.

Aside from Pettitte looking steady in his return, there weren't too many positives to take away from this game for the Yanks. However, the Red Sox also lost, dropping the magic number to 8, and making the possibility of a late season charge by the Sox a little less probable. The Rangers won, though, so the playoff clinching non-celebration will have to wait.

The didn't do anything to deter the Angels from challenging for homefield advantage, so that will have to wait until tonight.

Game 151: Thorn In My Pride

Andy Pettitte returns to the mound tonight, having been skipped due to shoulder fatigue following his start 10 days ago. Pettitte has thrown two bullpens since then, reportedly pain free. He does seem to have some lingering concern that the shoulder could cause an early exit for him tonight, as the comments he made to the media following his Friday bullpen session seemed to vary by writer. Thankfully, Sergio Mitre took one for the team and did an excellent job in five innings relief of Joba Chamberlain yesterday, leaving the Yankees with their full bullpen to back Pettitte tonight.

Pettitte is a pitcher with a lot of pride, and as we've examined earlier this year he's also a pitcher with an incentive laden contract that rewards him with each start he makes. Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman reported last week that Pettitte begged the Yankees to let him pitch through his shoulder issues. Given the source, I'm not sure if that's true or not. Pettitte's been around long enough to know that the post-season is what matters, and that given some of the other issues in the Yankee rotation right now, a lot is riding on his left shoulder.

In two starts against the Angels this year, Pettitte has been pretty bad, allowing 11 ER and 22 baserunners in 10 innings of work. His last start against them came in the disastrous pre-All-Star break series, after which both Pettitte and the Yankees as a whole went on a very impressive run.

Joe Saunders will go for the Halos. The lefty is 13-7 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the year. He's also allowed 27 longballs, tied for second most in the AL. He faced the Yankees once this year, in the July series, and allowed 11 baserunners and surrendered 5 ER in 5 innings of work. He did not factor into the decision. That start included, Saunders is carrying a 5.31 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and .864 OPS against in his last 11 starts, yet he's 5-2 and the Angels 7-4 in those games.

As Jay touched on earlier today and Ben Kabak at River Ave. Blues also pointed out, much will be made these next three days of the Yankees' struggles against the Angels. With home field still up for grabs, the media will place emphasis upon these games that will likely go beyond their actual importance. Nevertheless, the numbers aren't pretty. The Yankees are 13-23 against the Angels over the last four seasons, and are 4-14 at The Big A. The Angels, particularly in their home whites, have been a big thorn in the Yankees' side for a number of years now. Nothing that happens these next three days will be life or death, but it would sure be nice for the Yankees to erase the memory of that awful July series and take steps towards ensuring that a potential ALCS match-up will have no more than three games played in Orange County.



Does it make you want to scream?
Did you ever like a bad dream?
Sometimes life is obscene.

My angels, my devils, my thorn in my pride

Game 86: Going To California

Made up my mind to make a new start
Going to California with an aching in my heart

The season is more than half over, but tonight will be the first time all year the Yankees play a game in the Pacific Time Zone. As a result, this is first of three trips the Yanks will make to West Coast before season's end. By contrast, the Yankees co-leaders atop the AL East are already done going out west.

The West Coast part of the schedule couldn't start at a crueler place for the Yankees, as Anaheim has been a house of horrors for them in recent years. They lost the final two games of the 2002 ALDS there. In 2005 they lost Game 2 and the decisive Game 5 of the ALDS there. Since that 2005 ALDS, they Yanks are an abysmal 12-20 (.375) against the Angels, including 4-11 (.267) in Anaheim. Last year LAA took the season series 7-3, winning 5 of 6 at home.

This year things may be a bit different. The Yanks took 2 of 3 in The Bronx earlier this season. These Angels are markedly different team than in years past. While they're just a half game out in the AL West, their run differential is only sixth best in the league, mainly because their pitching is giving up the third most runs per game in the AL. Amongst their starters, only Jerred Weaver has been above league average.

At the plate they've done well. But Vlad Guerrerro and Torri Hunter are currently on the DL, and they've gotten virtually no production from their middle infield positions. Howie Kendrick had actually been demoted to AAA until his recall last week.

The Boo Mark Teixeira World Tour 2009 reaches Anaheim tonight, where Teix spent the final fifty-four games last season. Angels' owner Arte Moreno claims that while Teixeira was his team's number one priority last off-season, Teixeira did not negotiate in good faith, using the Angels' eight year $160M offer to drive up the price for other bidders. I'm sure Teix's reception will be much the same as it was in Baltimore and Boston, and to a lesser extent, Atlanta.

For the Angels, lefty Joe Saunders gets the start. He was great last year and his 101 ERA+ is good for second amongst Angels starters this year, but he's got a WHIP of 1.33, and is walking 3.1 per 9 against only 5.1 K per 9. He missed the Yanks in the earlier series this year. For his career he's pitched 15.1 innings against the Yanks over three starts, carrying a 7.63 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Let's hope for more of that tonight. It may be needed.

Joba Chamberlain goes for the Yanks. With the bullpen a bit worn out tonight, this would be a very opportune time for Joba to correct his recent problems with getting deep into games and being inefficient with his pitches. For a guy who's been downplaying his issues of late, it would be very nice for him to turn in a good a start in the same park where Ian Kennedy notoriously dismissed his struggles last year.

To fortify the bullpen Mark Melancon has been recalled, but there's still no word on the corresponding roster move.

These West Coast games suck for those of us back on the East Coast. Thankfully, this one's a weekend series, making it a little more bearable. Plus, tonight's the only night game, with 4:10 and 3:35 EDT starts the next two days. For those of you lucky enough to be attending, stay safe. The Big A has had enough fan on fan violence already this year.

It's quitting time on a Friday. Head on over to the Happy Hour watering hole of your choice. Have a couple frosty cold ones. Get home safely. Then either watch the game from the comfort of your own home or head back out and catch it at the bar. Then you can sleep in tomorrow. We'll see you in the AM with the recap.