Gaudin Waived

According to Ed Price of Fanhouse, Chad Gaudin was placed on waivers last night. Price further tweets that the waivers are outright waivers, making them irrevocable and meaning the Yankees cannot pull Gaudin back if another team claims him.

This leaves Gaudin with a few potential fates: he gets claimed by another team who assumes the entirety of his $2.95M salary; he clears and the Yankees outright him to the minors, remaining responsible for his contract; if Gaudin, has been outrighted before, he has the option to refuse the assignment and forfeit all but 25% of his contract; or he clears and the Yankees release him outright, owing him 25% of his contract.

Gaudin is a capable pitcher, so I'm assuming someone will claim him. FanGraphs' fan projections for 2010 have Gaudin at 0.8 WAR, which would be worth $3.6M on the open market. He's averaged 1.5 WAR over the last three seasons, good for approximately $6.75M on the open market. By those standards, he's a worthwhile pitcher at $2.95M.

Much like yesterday's return of Jamie Hoffmann, I'm a little bit surprised and somewhat disappointed by this move. Gaudin was essentially competing with Sergio Mitre for the longman/sixth or seventh starter position on the roster. While Mitre has been the better pitcher this spring, Gaudin is younger, has the better track record, has been effective in the AL in the past, and has shown himself to be serviceable both out of the pen and at the back of the rotation. Every available projection system predicts Gaudin as the better pitcher this year. Perhaps their salaries figured into this decision; or perhaps this move is a precursor to a rumored trade to secure Hoffmann's rights.

The recent transactions with Hoffmann and Gaudin leave the Yankees with two open spots on their 40 man roster.

Jeter, Rose, Rodriguez & Record Projections

The question of whether or not Derek Jeter will pass Pete Rose's all-time hit mark is not a new one. From what I can find on these here internets, Rob Neyer addressed the possibility in a mailbag back in 2006 as Jeter was approaching 2,000 hits and was, like he is now, slightly outpacing Rose based on seasonal age and number of hits accumulated. It came up again in 2008 as he neared 2,500 hits and probably a few times in between.

Since then, essentially nothing has changed except the people who bring up the question - usually not bloggers but relative outsiders who haven't heard it discussed ad nasuem already. Back in that 2006 Neyer mailbag it was a reader named Yehuda Hyman and yesterday it was the pinch hitter at LoHud named Lucas Vanderwarker. Lucas's post got picked up over at Baseball Think Factory and Neyer got in on the action again, adding some new relevant assumptions to the equation:

Now, let's think about how Derek Jeter's career is likely to play out. One, everyone seems to think that Jeter will retire as a Yankee; that they'll do anything keep him around and that he won't be interested in playing elsewhere. Two, he's a shortstop. There's essentially no such thing as a 42-year-old shortstop. Three, the Yankees have Mark Teixeira under contract through 2016, when Jeter will be 42. They've also got Alex Rodriguez under contract through 2017, when Jeter will be 43.

David Pinto also chimed in, offering up Robin Yount as a comparable who, as a 35 year old was over 100 hits ahead of Rose but played only two more seasons and finished with 3,142 in total.

As Rose said Joe Posnanski, "You tell Derek the first 3,000 are easy". Of course, the implication is not that they're actually easy, but they're a lot easier than the next 1,256, which, as every other person ever to have played the game has figured out, is a true statement.

Jeter is 35 and a half years old and although we've seen very few indications to the contrary, the Cap'n is not invincible. No one is.

I learned this the hard way last year when I took issue with Nate Silver's projected home run totals for Alex Rodriguez, which predicted he'd end up with 730. I eventually ventured a guess as to what his career home run tally would be. I used an exhaustive 8 step methodology and arrived at the number 792. That involved a prediction of 42 for the 2009 season.

Much to my chagrin, not even two weeks later A-Rod was out in Colorado having surgery to repair a torn hip labrum, missed over a month of the season and had to hit two home runs in the same inning in Game 162 just to reach 30. Not only that, but his hip injury also cast serious doubt on his long term health.

While it's still a distinct possibility that A-Rod breaks Barry Bonds' Hank Aaron's record, it doesn't seem nearly as likely as it did just a year ago. But the picture is a lot rosier than it was the day after he had surgery. And that likelihood will probably fluctuate countless more times before he either breaks the record or retires.

I understand why fans like to talk about these far-flung possibilities and we are outrageously lucky to have two players on the Yankees pursing perhaps the two most hallowed career offensive records in Baseball. But at the same time, I'm not interested in reassessing what a projection system - using a bunch of players as comparables who, by definition didn't break the record - predicts the odds are that A-Rod or Jeter will reach that milestone every time one of them passes a round number, gets injured or the offseason news cycle grinds to a halt.

Projections can be a very useful tool in the right context but these kinds of records get broken on a very infrequent basis and only then by extreme statistical outliers. And besides, the left side of the infield still has a long, long road ahead.

The Easiest (And Cheapest) Outfield Solution

It's been almost two weeks since the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson and during that time, their 2010 roster has begun to congeal. Andy Pettitte was re-signed, Jamie Hoffman was acquired via the Rule V Draft, Nick Johnson was signed as a free agent, Hideki Matsui became an Angel and it is widely assumed that Johnny Damon's career as a Yankee has come to a close. However, in the game of musical chairs which will determine the outfield configuration for 2010, it's not even clear that all the participants have been identified. The music is most certainly still playing.

At the moment, the Yankees have 5 outfielders on their 25 man roster: Granderson, Hoffman, Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. The good news is that 4 of them are capable of playing center field. The bad news (aside from the fact that only one of them can do so) is that only two of the five can hit like Major League corner outfielders (Swisher and Granderson).

Even though there has been some sporadic talk about Swish being traded this offseason, let's simplify this by assuming that he will be the Yankees' right fielder come Opening Day. That leaves four players for two starting jobs, one of which will certainly belong to Granderson.

When the Yankees picked up Granderson, I hoped aloud that they would consider putting him in left field and keeping the center field platoon from 2009 intact. Not only would it require no further trades or acquisitions and be relatively inexpensive (~$15M), but it it would result in one of the better defensive outfields in the league. And as they say, "a [run] saved is a [run] earned".

Granderson has been above (+12.9), below (-9.4) and just about average (+1.6) defensively in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively, according to UZR. Using a 3-4-5 weighted average of those scores, his UZR/150 is approximately +3 over the past three years. Given that he was a slightly better than average center fielder, it would be safe to assume that he would be a significantly better than average left fielder. Left field in Yankee Stadium is plenty large so it's not like stashing a rangy defender there would be a waste.

I'm going to refrain from citing the exact UZRs for the Gardbrera Duo due to small sample sizes, but I'm willing to assume that Brett is a very good fielder while Melky is probably about average or slightly below. Combine them and the Yanks are a tick better than average in CF.

In terms of offense, there are two leaps of faith that I am taking here:

1) Granderson's offensive output will be closer to 2007 and 2008 than to 2009.

2) Cabrera and Gardner will be as good as they were last year or better at the plate.

Neither of those are trivial considerations, but there are reasons to be optimistic.

Granderson's BABIP of .275 is likely to improve from last year given that it is significantly lower than his carreer mark of .322. Bill at the Detroit Tigers Weblog estimated that about half of that drop was due to Granderson's approach and the other half to luck. Hitting in the New Yankee Stadium should also help. Additionally, it would be a lot easier to find a solid hitting right-handed platoon partner for Granderson (like Reed Johnson) who can play LF as opposed to one who can play center.

Melky has already experienced years in which he regressed instead of improving in his young career and there are good reasons why Gardner won't necessarily improve next year. But they are both in their mid-20's and should be able to at least replicate what they did at the plate in '09 barring an injury.

The Yankees have an infield full of star-caliber hitters, a DH with a .400 OBP and a right fielder who hits about 30 HRs as well. They won 103 regular season games (and the World Series) last year with Gardner and Melky splitting CF duty. I think they can afford to configure left and center field in a way that would maximize defensive production while being close to average at the plate. There are other ways to fill those holes, but they would likely cause the Yanks to get older and more expensive in the process.

Minor League Monday: Jesus Montero

Jesus Montero is the unquestioned crown jewel of the Yankees' minor league system. I was hoping to save him for some sort of momentous post, but given that this week marks the peak of the Hot Stove season we may as well trot out a Montero profile now. Besides, I want to make sure we get him in now in case he's included in a deal for Roy Halladay.

A righy swinging catcher, Montero was born in Venezuela and signed as an international free agent in 2006. Initially given a signing bonus of $2M, it was later reduced after a poor showing in minicamp and reports that Montero may have misrepresented his age. Still, Montero was considered the best power hitter amongst the 2006 international signees.

He made his U.S. debut the following year as a 17 year old in the rookie Gulf Coast League and posted a line of .280/.366/.421. Following the season, Baseball America listed him as the Yankees' sixth best prospect, and third best position player behind Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. Despite just 33 games of professional experience, Montero's performance was enough to earn him a non-roster invitation to Spring Training in 2008, where he homered in his only at bat.

He spent the entirety of the 2008 season at low A Charleston, where he split the catching and DH duties with fellow top prospect Austin Romine, posted a .326/.376/.491 line with 17 HR, and earned mid-season and post-season All-Star honors. He was also selected to the mid-season Futures Game. Baseball America upped him to second on the Yankees' prospect list.

2009 saw both Montero and Romine promoted to high A Tampa, where they continued splitting time between catching and DHing. Montero destroyed the Florida State League through 48 games, hitting 356/.406/.583 before earning an early June promotion to AA Trenton. He showed no signs of slowing down there, posting a five game home run streak at one point and batting .317/.370/.539. All the more impressive is that he did it as a 19 year old in just his third professional season, in a league that historically favors pitching, and in a park that historically suppresses offense.

Montero's season ended prematurely, thanks to a broken finger suffered at the start of August. Still, he was named to the mid-season All-Star of both the Florida State and Eastern Leagues and was named to his second consecutive Futures Game. In their mid-season report, Baseball America named him the third best prospect in all of baseball.

Montero's finger injury has healed and he's currently playing winter ball in Venezuela for Los Navegantes del Magallenes. However, he's appeared in just nine games, none since November 5th, and is hitting just .115. His absence is not injury related though; he's just playing behind an older and more experienced teammate.

There are concerns about Montero's ability to be a catcher in the long term. He carries a 6'4" 225 lb frame and there are questions about his footwork and mobility. The Yankees will likely give him every opportunity to fail as a catcher before moving him to another position. His bat will play anywhere, as a recent profile stated Montero is "a potential once-in-a-generation force on offense".

Montero's likely ticketed for AAA Scranton in 2010, but the organization may want to send him back to Trenton to start the season. There's a chance that he could see the Bronx this year, but I wouldn't count on it. Just to gain some perspective though on how good this 20 year old is, here are his MLB projections for 2010 and his combined minor league equivalents from 2009:

(Click for larger image)

Clearly not enough to warrant a Major League starting job, at least not on a team that hopes to contend, but to consider that a 20 year old potential catcher could put up such lines is very impressive. In the history of baseball there have been 11 men to post slugging percentages over .400 as 20 year old rookies: Ted Williams, Frank Robinson, Bob Horner, Orlando Cepeda, Ruben Sierra, Willie Mays, Miguel Cabrera, Hank Aaron, Eddie Matthews, Arky Vaughan, and Ron Santo. Seven Hall of Famers, one more who should be, one more who might be, and two guys who had lengthy productive careers. That's pretty lofty company.

Montero will be mentioned in any major trade discussion the Yankees have, and will be asked for in even the minor discussions. Maybe the right deal will present itself where it would be worthwhile to deal Montero. Maybe Montero never pans out to what he promises to be, or maybe a move from behind the plate leaves him without a spot on the Yankees, or saps him of his full value. But right now, it's one of the pleasures of being a Yankee fan to look at what he's already done and imagine what may be in the future.

Minor League Monday Tuesday: Reegie Corona

After a Cal Ripken Jr like run of one consecutive week, residual tryptophan levels in my bloodstream were so high that I was too comatose to get the Minor League Monday post ready in time for yesterday. Either that or I had actual work to do that got in the way.

One way or another, a day late and several dollars short, here's this week's look at a Yankee minor leaguer. After profiling recent 40 man roster addition Kevin Russo last week, this week we'll take a look another infielder recently added to the 40 man: Reegie Corona.

Corona is a 23 year old switch hitting second baseman/shortstop who has also seen minimal time at third base and in the outfield in his professional career. A native of Venezuela, the Yankees signed him at age 16 in 2003. He made his stateside debut the following year, seeing action in 36 games for the Yankees entry in the Gulf Coast Rookie League. He split 2005 between short season Staten Island and high-A Tampa, 2006 between low-A Charleston and Tampa, and 2007 between Tampa and AA Trenton.

After spending all of 2008 in AA, Corona was selected by the Seattle Mariners with the second pick of last year's Rule 5 Draft. Corona couldn't crack the M's 25 man roster though, and he was returned to the Yankees just prior to Opening Day. Assigned to AAA for the first time, Corona struggled miserably at the plate, batting just .200/.241/.300 in 177 PA. Shipped back to AA for the third time, the light hitting Corona turned in the best offensive performance of his career, posting a .287/.397/.397 line over his 368 AA PA. His performance earned him mid-season All-Star honors in the Eastern League.

Corona is currently playing winter ball for Los

Navegantes del Magallenes in his native Venezuela where he is building upon his new found offensive prowess by hitting .352/.477/.592 through 27 games.

Recent offensive surge aside, Corona is reputed for his glove work and his speed. He's demonstrated himself to be a slick fielder at second base and capable at shortstop. He's had three minor league seasons of 20+ stolen bases and has a career success rate of 80.3%.

As we mentioned when looking at the 40 man roster last week, the Yankees currently have a glut of middle infielders on their 40 man roster: Corona, Russo, Ramiro Pena, and Eduardo Nunez. That's about twice as many as they rightly need. Brian Cashman has made allusions to last year's 3 for 1 Nick Swisher trade, suggesting a similar deal could be in the works to open roster space. If so, it's likely the Yankees would try to make at least one of those four part of the deal. Pena and Russo have the best defensive and offensive reputations respectively and are the most Major League ready.

The stories being bandied about in the wake of the 40 man roster additions were that between the Trenton keystone combination Corona was the glove man and Nunez had the bat. That may well be true; I hadn't heard much detail about either prior to their being added to the 4o man. But 2009 was the first good offensive season posted by Nunez. Even with a superior offensive season in 2009, Nunez still posted a lower LD% than Corona, and Nunez' AVG and BABIP seem to be bolstered by an abnormally high GB%. For their careers, Corona's .262/.338/.342 isn't much different than Nunez' .271/.313/.366. Perhaps Nunez' .322/.349/.433 mark in 2009 is the start of a trend for him. But until that's proven, I think I'd prefer Corona's .076 IsoD and 9.88 BB%; plate discipline is not a skill that's easily learned.

For what it's worth, Corona and Ramiro Pena have spent about equal time at the different rungs of the Yankees' ladder and Pena's career minor league line of .255/.315/.320 is poorer than Corona across the board. Pena wasn't nearly as overmatched in the Bigs this year as initially feared, so perhaps there's some hope for Corona as a future utility man. Pena does have a leg up as a natural shortstop, but Corona's plate discipline and speed give him skills that Pena doesn't have. Corona is also 16 months younger.

If he's not traded, Corona is likely headed to Scranton, site of his early 2009 struggles. His 2009 line at Trenton has an equivalent of .270/.374/.369 at Scranton, which given his performance there early last year seems like a bit of a stretch. Perhaps his familiarity with AA his third time through helped with his performance in Trenton last year.

On the off chance Corona reaches the Bronx next year, CAIRO projects him at .246/.325/.335 with a .303 wOBA, CHONE has him at .248/.317/.342, and ZiPS has him at .250/.313/.347 with an OPS+ of 78 while providing very good defense at second and average defense at short. It's worth mentioning that all three projection systems have Corona being offensively superior to Pena and only CHONE shows Russo being offensively superior to Corona.

At the surface, Corona may be the least dazzling of the four utility infielders currently on the 40 man roster. Russo and Nunez are considered the offensively superior players, while Pena is both the incumbent utility guy and the resident defensive whiz. But looking below the surface a bit, Corona may actually have a future as a bench player. He's versatile with a good defensive reputation, has value on the basepaths, good plate discipline, projects to do as well or better as his more offensive counterparts, and may have experienced an offensive breakthrough last year. If the Yankees try to use another "3 for 1" type deal to clear space on the 40 man, they may look to sell high on one or two of the other infield options and give Corona a shot.

(Photos from Mike Ashomore's Thunder Thoughts and the Scranton Time-Tribune)

Minor League Monday: Kevin Russo

Two weeks ago, we filed our final Jackson Report for 2009, taking a look at top Yankee prospect Austin Jackson. In it, I mentioned that we hoped to fill the void of the off-season by taking a look at some of the prospects in the Yankee system. To that end, we'll be running a Minor League Monday series, taking a look at a Yankees' prospect each week.

This week it'll be infielder Kevin Russo, who was just added to the Yankees 40 man roster. Russo isn't quite the highly touted prospect that Jackson is or some of our future subjects are, but he is close to Big League ready and likely will see time in the Bronx in 2010.

A native of Suffolk County, Russo is 25 and was drafted out of Baylor in the 20th round of the 2006 draft. He made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast Rookie League that summer, spent 2007 with High-A Tampa, 2008 with AA Trenton, and 2009 with AAA Scranton. He's increased his batting average in each of his four seasons, peaking at .326 this year thanks to a double digit jump in his line drive percentage. He's a .300 hitter for his minor league career, has shown good plate discipline with a .360 career OBP, including a .397 mark in AAA last year. He's also a good contact hitter, with a career K% of 15.7% and no more than 66 strikeouts in any one season.

Defensively, Russo is primarily a second baseman. He's seen a decent amount of time at third base, has made a half dozen appearances at both shortstop and left field, and has made one apperance in right field. Clearly, Russo will not usurp Robinson Cano as the Yankee second baseman, so his role be that of a utility infielder. As such, he'll have to show an ability to play a passable shortstop if he's going to be of any value. He never appeared at the position until this past season, and has both the least experience at short and the poorest defensive reputation of any of the four utility infielders currently on the Yankees 40 man roster. He does, however, have easily the best offensive skill set of the four. If he can continue to be servicable in the outfield that would only add to his value. As I stated way back in July, I'd like to see Russo get the Ramiro Pena treatment and see some time in center field as well.

Russo greatest skill is his ability to get on base. However, as we saw with Brett Gardner, minor leaguers with good on base skills but poor power often struggle at the Big League level. The pitching is of a higher quality, the control is generally better, and the pitchers are unafraid to challenge such hitters when they know there's little chance of a ball leaving the yard. It took Gardner some time to make the adjustment and we may see something similar with Russo when he gets his chance.

2009 was easily Russo's best season as a pro, and it came in his first year at AAA. He was named a post-season All-Star by the International League and a AAA All-Star by Topps. With the exception of a hiccup in 2007, he's shown steady improvement throughout his minor league career, and has done so while advancing a level each year. His performance at Scranton this past season translates to a Major League equivalent of .280/.344/.363. Two of those numbers will play at the Major League level; the third is pretty abysmal and would have in the bottom twenty amongst American Leaguers with at least 350 PA in 2009.

CHONE has him at .272/.326/.382, The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has him at .249/.311/.338 in their first CAIRO projections, and ZiPS has him at .260/.312/.351 with an OPS+ of 78, while providing average defense at second and third. For what it's worth, CAIRO was the most accurate projection system in 2009 - and unfortunately for Russo that's the one that takes the most pessimistic outlook on him. As far as I know, PECOTA and Marcel are unreleased at present, and I think Marcel just puts rookies at league average anyway.

Depending upon how the off-season shakes out, Russo has a small chance to make the club as a bench player out of Spring Training. More likely though, he'll start the season at Scranton. I'd expect the organization to try to get him some time at shortstop and in the outfield to round out his value as a utility player and perhaps implement a program or approach to attempt to increase his power a bit. Either way, I expect to see Kevin Russo in pinstripes at some point in 2010.

Wrapping It Up For The Weekend

Sorry Fackers. Like Jay, I'm heading out for a little weekend trip to the heart of enemy territory, so things are going to be a bit sparse around here. We'll have previews, maybe recaps, maybe scattered updates. But don't count on too much.

That also means that even though last night's game marked the two thirds point of the season, we won't be doing our usual extrapolations and ZIPS. Sorry math geeks. If you have a third grade education you should be able to figure out how to do the extrapolations on your own. For the ZIPS projections, check out the awesome fangraphs.com

Before I go, here are a few Sox related thoughts:

During the series in Boston in June, I posted a recap of the Sox off-season moves compared to the those of the Yankees. Though lauded in the media, they haven't been too great. Smoltz is pitching like he has a giant fork sticking out of his back, Kotsay was DFA's then traded, Bard was released before the season started, Penny's been so-so, Baldelli's on his second DL stint, and Varitek will now be losing playing time to Victor Martinez.

I was a little perplexed by the Sox deadline moves - particularly the quick flip of LaRoche for Casey Kotchman. They way I figured it, Youkilis, Kotchman, Lowell, Martinez, Varitek, and Lowell would all be fighting for playing time amongst the corners, catcher, and DH. Last night's line up may have given some insite into their thought process. With Jason Bay sidelined with a sore hammy, Youk was in leftfield. Youkilis made 18 OF apperances in 2006, but has played less than 9 innings out there since. And left field in Yankee Stadium is far different than catching caroms off the Monster.

I wonder though, if J.D. Drew continues to struggle, might the Sox give Youk more time in the OF to get the other bats in at first and third? Time will tell, but from my vantage point in the upper deck last night, Youkilis didn't look too comfortable out in left. He was continually short-arming his throws like an infielder as well. But it speaks volumes as to the guy's versatility that he was able to that. Fack him anyway.

I was a bit surprised that Francona left former Yankee Billy Traber out there for so long. It was the equivalent of waving the white flag. Given the way the Yanks swung the bats it may have been the smart move, but seemed to be in stark contrast to the all-in look of the initial line up, i.e. Youkilis in left.

Lastly, I'm extremely interested to see what comes out of the David Ortiz press conference tomorrow. I realize it's convenient for the union to address this now since they're based in NYC, but it can't the wisest move for Ortiz to do this right in the thick of a critical series against the Yankees, in New York. You knwo the tabloids are going to be hanging on every word like a pack of hungry dogs.

That's it until the preview folks. Enjoy your Friday.

First Half Projections - Pitching

[The day game yesterday pushed these projections back a bit, but we wanted to take a look at the numbers at the half season mark. Data does not include yesterday's game.

We've done three things here: first we've taken statistics from the first half of the season and done a simple extrapolation for a full season. Below that, we've taken ZIPS (Updated) projections from the awesome FanGraphs right now, and on the bottom, for comparison's sake, we've included what the ZIPS were at the one-third mark of the season. ZIPS, specifically the half season update, are going to be the most reliable, as they take into account what each player has already done this year as well as historical performance to project what the end of season numbers will look like.

Here are the four constant members of the starting rotation along with the four bullpen guys who have sufficient sample sizes for analysis.

You can click on the tables for a larger view.]


CC Sabathia isn't having one of his best years, but it's still pretty damn good. In 2007 and 2008, he had K/BB ratios of 5.65 and 4.35, while this year he is only at 2.53. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up, but his WHIP is in line with his previous two seasons. Averaging just over 6 2/3 innings with a 3.85 ERA (ZIPS thinks it will be lower) on a potent offensive team should net you more than 14 wins in a full season, and he could easily go on a tear where he takes down 4 or 5 decisions in a row.

A.J. Burnett's last four starts have dragged his ERA down from 4.89 to 3.83. He's won 5 of his last seven starts and has proven to be the front end starter the Yankees had hoped they were signing this offseason. But he, like Sabathia has a low K/BB ratio. He hasn't gone as deep into games as CC, so his innings projections are lower.

This year Andy Pettitte is walking more batters than any other year of his career, which explains his tiny K/BB. He's publicly said that he is afraid to make a mistake at the New Stadium for fear that it might get taken deep. This is probably because 12 of the 14 home runs he's allowed have come at home. Yesterday was the first start of the second half and a 6 inning outing with 6 earned runs (including two homers) probably isn't the best way to head into the home stretch.

Oh, Joba. Much has been said about the young man lately, including the fact that in 28 career starts, he's factored into the decision only 10 times. Part of it certainly has to do with flukey run distributions in the games he's started, but he's also been unable to consistenly go deep into games. He's gone over 6 innings only 3 times in 16 starts this year and those accounted for 3 of his four wins.

The way Phil Hughes' numbers end up this year will have everything to do with the way he is used. Since transitioning to the bullpen, he's watched his ERA drop from 5.30 to 4.20, and he hasn't given up a run in his last 7 outings. It's great that he's adapted to the role successfully, but Girardi hasn't utilized the fact that Hughes is not your typical bullpen guy and rarely pitches him more than just an inning.

Mo's ERA is inflated by a rough couple of outings, but he has a microscopic WHIP and cartoonish K and BB numbers. He's got 21 saves so far, on pace for 42 which would be his highest total since 2005. Girardi has used him for more than one inning six times, which may not be the greatest thing for a 39 year old coming off of a shoulder procedure.

Phil Coke has emerged as valuable reliever who Joe Girardi is starting to trust in the last innings of close games. He's given up just one earned run in 17 outings dating back to June 4th and his ERA has dropped from 4.50 to 2.97. His ZIPS numbers may be a bit skewed as it still projects him to make seven starts. That ain't happening.


Our boy Alf has been one of the more pleasant surprises on the team this year. He's been used in close and late situations as well as longer appearances like the time CC had to leave the mound in in the second inning against the Marlins. He doesn't have blazing stuff, but his great control gives him the best K/BB ratio on the team, this side of Mo. His ZIPS has him making ten starts before the season's out, and with the recent injury to CMW, that may happen.

First Half Projections - Offense

[The day game yesterday pushed these projections back a bit, but we wanted to take a look at the numbers at the half season mark. Data does not include yesterday's game.

We've done three things here: first we've taken statistics from the first half of the season and done a simple extrapolation for a full season. Below that, we've taken ZIPS (Updated) projections from the awesome FanGraphs right now, and on the bottom, for comparison's sake, we've included what the ZIPS were at the one-third mark of the season. ZIPS, specifically the half season update, are going to be the most reliable, as they take into account what each player has already done this year as well as historical performance to project what the end of season numbers will look like.

Here are the 10 most prominent Yankee hitters. For the extrapolation part, adjustments were made to both Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez to account for the time both lost to injury.

You can click on the tables for a larger view]

Since returning from the DL in late May, Posada's hasn't hit quite as well as he had before getting injured. Still, his numbers are great for a catcher, great for a thirty-seven year old, and arguably historic for a thirty-seven year old catcher. For all the gnashing of teeth over his contract and his abilities behind the plate, Jorge Posada is still as valuable as any catcher this side of Joe Mauer. ZIPS predicts his AVG and OBP will hold at their current levels, but expects the SLG to drop off a bit. It'll be interesting to see if the veteran catcher can maintain his current levels of production as the season wears on him.

Despite his recent power outage and RBI drought, Teix is on pace to drive in well over 100 runs and score around 100 as well. ZIPS has picked up on his recent struggles and all of three of his slash stats, HR and RBI projections have declined since the third mark, but his doubles and walks are up.

All three of Cano's predictors are very similar. His ZIPS have hardly changed, while his extrapolations aren't too far away in any category. His career slash stats are .302/.335/.470, which align almost perfectly as well. He might be streaky in the short term, but over time Cano is freakishly consistent.

This has been an interesting season for Alex Rodriguez. Batting slumps have left him with an extremely low AVG by his standards. ZIPS still sees him bouncing back, but his slumps between games 54 and 81 have caused ZIPS to drop their end of season number by 13 points. What's really interesting though is A-Rod's OBP. Despite the low AVG, his current OBP is the fifth highest of his career, and 22 points above his career mark. His walk rate is 5% greater than his previous career high, and his K rate is his career best by 1.7%. His low AVG has taken a toll on his SLG, as both the extrapolation and ZIPS have him well below his career mark of .577. Yet his HR% of 6.2% is a tick above his career average of 6.1%, meaning that his HRs as a percentage of his total hits are way up. As a result his Isolated Power of .279 is slightly above his career mark of .272. His counting stats for both ZIPS and the extrapolation may be a bit high if the Yanks keeping resting him as they say they will.

Like Cano, Jeter's current batting line (.316/.390./.460) is a mirror image of his career line (.316/.387/.458). He already has 6 more stolen bases than he did all of last year, with three fewer caught stealing. Sitting at 99 hits, he's got a good chance for 200 and even though he's hitting leadoff this year, both ZIPS projections have him exceeding his RBI total from last year (69).

ZIPS doesn't buy Brett Gardner's recent improvements at the plate. This is one spot where I'm going to side with the extrapolations over the projections. I think Gardner's recent offensive successes are indicative of his finally figuring out the league. He was a solid on-base guy throughout his minor league career, and it looks like he's learning how to get on in the majors as well. As his OBP improves, so too should his stolen bases.

The Melk Man had a terrible June, hitting only .225/.312/.375 and hasn't yet recovered in July (3H and 1BB in 16PA). His BABIP dropped significantly, from .356 in May to .242 in June, which begins to account for his struggles. With him and Gardner both moving towards the mean, they should be seeing closer to equal playing time this month.

Johnny Damon's career slugging percentage sits is .438, but this year it's .530. ZIPS makes an attempt to reconcile those two, without taking into consideration that the New Yankee Stadium has helped Damon as much as anyone this year. Twelve of his sixteen homers have come in the Bronx and every single one has gone to right field. Last year, 10 of his 17 jacks came on the road.

After a torrid April, Swish had a terrible May and an average June. Average those out and he's pretty close to his career line of .243/.355/.454. All three lines project 28 HRs. His 162 game average? 28. But 11 of his 14 have come on the road, so perhaps he is due to take advantage of the short porch.

Due to interleague play, Matsui's extrapolation on his counting stats are a little bit low. Those aren't great numbers for a DH, but if he can notch 25 homers and slug over .500 that's pretty respectable. It promises to be Matsui's final year in Pinstripes, so hopefully he can end on a good note.

First Third Projections - Hitting

[With the completion of Game 54 on Thursday, the regular season is exactly one third over. The sample sizes are getting larger by the day, and it's now getting to the point where it's not exactly too early to be making any assessments.

We can't draw any firm conclusions, but now seems as good a point as any to take a look at some projections. We've done two things here: first we've taken statistics from the first third of the season and done a simple extrapolation for a full season. Below that, we've taken ZIPS (Updated) projections from the awesome FanGraphs. This is easily the better predictor of the two, as it takes into account what each player has already done this year as well as historical performance to project what the end of season numbers will look like.

Here are the 10 most prominent Yankee hitters. For the extrapolation part, adjustments were made to both Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez to account for the time both lost to injury. Jay will be back later with pitchers.]

(Click on any chart for a larger view)

Following off-season shoulder surgery, Jorge Posada was perhaps the biggest concern entering the season. His shoulder has been just fine; it was his hamstring that put him on the shelf for a month. When healthy he's been better than can be expected, especially for a 37 year old catcher. ZIPS projects him to fall off from his current torrid pace, but the .921 OPS would be the 4th best of his career.

Teixeira had an awful, awful April followed by an unbelievable May. As such, he's leveled out, and both his extrapolation and ZIPS leave him just about where you'd expect him to be for a full season. ZIPS predicts the power numbers will drop off a bit.


Cano has rebounded nicely from a very poor 2008. Though he's dropped off a bit from his hot start, he still looks likely to finish in a good spot. His refusal to take a walk still dogs him though, as his OBP is slightly below league average despite being a .300 hitter. It is also well below his 2006-2007 numbers. If Cano doesn't improve his walk rate he will continue to be entirely reliant upon his hitting for his offensive value. As such, it'd be nicer to see him in the .320 - .330 range.


Those are good numbers for a 162 game season, nevermind from someone who missed the first month plus. ZIPS sees the AVG getting back up to a more A-Rod like level, and there's no reason to believe that it won't.


It's been a bit of a renaissance for the Captain this year as his line looks good. As it does for others, ZIPS sees his power dropping off from its current pace, but 16 HRs would still be his highest total since 2005. It's interesting to note that despite getting on base at a good clip as the leadoff hitter for a potent offense, Jeter is not a lock for 100 runs.



Hideki Matsui is the streakiest player I've ever seen. Already this season he's been through about two cycles of looking like crap followed by catching fire. ZIPS projects more of the latter the rest of the way and I hope it's right. This is almost certainly Matsui's last hurrah in pinstripes and he deserves to go out on a high note.


Johnny Damon is in a contract year in he's playing like it. He's on pace for 33 HRs, though ZIPS projects a more realistic 23, one short of his career high set in 2006. The .851 OPS predicted by ZIPS would be the 4th highest of Damon's career and his best since 2004. If he can finish out that way I'd gladly give him one year or one plus an option.


Swish hit like Babe Ruth in April and like Ruth Bader Ginsburg in May. He's getting hot again of late. Both the extrapolation and ZIPS predict just about what you'd expect from Swish: slightly below average AVG, great OBP, and good power. I'll gladly take that.


I may not be 100% sold on Melky still, but after his disastrous 2008 I can't be anything but thrilled with his 2009 thus far. Whether it's for real remains to be seen, but he's rebounded nicely and has shown a flair for the dramatic with all his late inning heroics. ZIPS sees him coming back to earth a bit by season's end, but his projected AVG, SLG, and OPS would all be career highs. I'm a little surprised to see his projected OBP that low, but Melky has been taking fewer walks as this season has progressed. Like his buddy Cano, Melky would benefit greatly from more plate discipline. I'd love to see his OBP hold at its current .360 clip, the same mark he posted in 2006.

After a disastrous start that saw him lose the CF job to Melky, Gardner has come on strong of late. He has absolutely zero power, so in order for him to offer any real offensive value he's going to have to get on base at better than the league average rate that ZIPS projects, thereby allowing him to take full advantage of his speed. The problem is that the good OBP skills Gardner displayed in the minors haven't quite translated to MLB. When you're a rookie with no pop pitchers will challenge you, making it much harder to draw a free pass. That said, given his current role on the team, Gardner looks to be doing his job adequately.

Youk The Fluke

Thank you, NBC Sports.

In our debut of "The Show," Gregg Rosenthal says there is no way that Red Sox slugger Kevin Youkilis will match his power numbers of last season.

Guess which one is Greg Rosenthal:

Are you ready for the hard hitting analysis from the "The Show"?

"I hate to say it, but the guy who I think might regress the most. A member of the Tribe! And a member of my favorite team! Kevin Youkilis. Twenty-nine home runs last year, but he's not really a power guy, I mean, he might lead the league in sweating through his helmet, but he's not going to lead the league in home runs. I would stay away from Youkilis."

"A member of The Tribe"? I hope he doesn't mean the Indians.

He didn't lead the league in home runs last year, so it would be pretty foolish to draft him expecting that this year. "He's not a power guy"? What are you basing this on, Greg? Oh... you're not going to provide any reasons? Allow me:

Those are some pretty serious spikes in power for a 29 year old without changing leagues or teams. One would imagine he is due for a regression to the mean.

Hope you're right, Rosenthal.