Morrow's Sorrow Recalls Stieb's Near No-Nos

Good morning Fackers. Despite merely splitting this weekend's four game wrap around series against the Red Sox, things couldn't have gone much better for the Yankees over the past four days. The split against Boston leaves the Yankees six games up on their archrivals with more than two thirds of the season completed. It's far, far too early to start counting magic numbers, but as the wounded Red Sox continue to limp along, this weekend's series pushed them four games closer to elimination.

Of greater importance to the Yankees right now is the favor that the Blue Jays performed for them over the weekend, sweeping the Rays in a three game series, allowing the Yanks to extend their lead over Tampa Bay by a game and a half. Toronto snuck by with a narrow 2-1 victory on Friday; dropped a 17-11 beatdown on Saturday, featuring eight home runs by the offense and a four for five, eleven total base debut by J.P. Arencibia; then took another pitcher's duel with 1-0 victory on Sunday.

It's of course Sunday's game that is most memorable, as Toronto starter Brendan Morrow came within one out of being the third pitcher to no hit Tampa Bay this season, and the fourth in the last thirteen months. Morrow was masterful, striking out a 2010 MLB high 17 batters, walking just two, allowing just six balls out of the infield, and losing his no-no on an infield single by Evan Longoria with two outs in the top of the night.

The instant Longoria reached first base safely, my thoughts immediately turned to former Toronto ace Dave Stieb, something that wasn't lost on the good folks at Big League Stew as they recapped the game yesterday. The heartbreak suffered by Morrow yesterday and Armando Galarraga earlier this year is something the Jays' mustachioed and criminally underrated 80's ace could relate to all too well. And the Yankees played a role in two of Stieb's near misses.

In 1988, Stieb carried no hitters into the ninth inning in both of his final two starts. In Cleveland on September 24th, Stieb struck out Andy Allanson leading off the ninth, then got Willie Upshaw to ground out. With just one out separating him from a no hitter, Stieb faced Indian's leadoff hitter and future batting champ Julio Franco. Already thirty years old at the time and with nearly twenty years left on his Major League career, the jheri curled second baseman took a ball, then two strikes, then fouled off three straight pitches before working the count even at 2-2. On the eighth pitch of the at bat, Stieb's 123rd on the night, Franco bounced a base hit through the middle. Stieb then retired Dave Clark to the end game, settling on a one hit, two walk, 1-0 victory nearly identical to Morrow's outing Sunday.

Six days later, in the opening game of Toronto's final series on the season, Stieb took the mound at Exhibition Stadium as the Jays hosted Baltimore. Once again, Stieb was outstanding. He was perfect through six and a third, with his lone walk of the day being erased on a subsequent double play. Facing the bottom of the order of a feeble Baltimore team that would finish a Major League worst 54-107, Stieb once again came within one out of a no-no. Both Brady Anderson and Jeff Stone tapped back to Stieb. With just one out to go, O's skipper Frank Robinson sent Jim Traber to pinch hit for rookie third baseman Craig Worthington. To that point, Traber was just one for eight against Stieb in his career. But Traber lined a 2-2 pitch to right field for Baltimore's first hit, and for the second time in as many starts, Stieb had his heart broken just one strike away from finishing a no hitter.

His luck didn't get any better in 1989. He started in Kansas City in the second game of the season, and held the Royals to four hits, two walks, and a lone run over eight frames, but his offense could only manage one run of their own, courtesy of a solo homer by Jesse Barfield, who was just 25 days away from being traded to the Yankees. For the ninth inning, Stieb gave way to Todd Stottlemyre, son of former Yankee ace and future Yankee pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre. After getting two outs, Stottlemyre surrendered a double to future Yankee Danny Tartabull and a single to former Yankee first round pick Pat Tabler, allowing KC to walk off with a 2-1 win. But compared to his two previous starts and his next start, Stieb's hard luck no-decision in Kansas City was nothing.

Five days later, Stieb took to the hill at Yankee Stadium in the opening game of a three game series. Again, Stieb would allow just one hit. This time at least, he got it out of the way early, yielding a fifth inning single to Jamie Quirk.

Stieb wouldn't have any more near misses until four months later, when he faced the Yankees at Skydome on August 4th. This was perhaps Stieb's best start of all. He needed just 82 pitches to retire the first twenty six batters he faced, eleven by strikeout. For the third time in eleven months, Stieb stood a lone out away from a no hitter. If he could retire the young Yankee center fielder Roberto Kelly, he would complete just the eleventh perfect game in baseball's modern era.

Kelly was in the midst of his first full season as the Yankee center fielder. He made a brief cameo in 1987 and entered 1988 as the starting center fielder. But after a slow start, he lost his job to Claudell Washington, and by July he was back in Columbus. 1989 was a different story. With Washington having signed with the Angels in the off-season, center field was Kelly's to lose. This time, he got off to a strong start, and with Dave Winfield out for the year following back surgery and Rickey Henderson's contract demands resulting in a June trade back to Oakland, Kelly was the Yankees best outfielder on that woeful '89 team and the best player outside of Don Mattingly. As he stepped in against Stieb with two outs in the ninth, he was batting .328/.389/.448.

Not quite nine years old at the time, I can recall watching the game with my father. At some point in the ninth inning, referencing Stieb's tough luck over the previous year, Dad predicted the Yanks would find a way to spoil Stieb's night. Kelly got ahead 2-0, then lined a double down the left field line. Steve Sax followed with a single to spoil Stieb's shutout. A groundout from Luis Polonia put an end to the game, but once again Stieb had come so close without sealing the deal.

In a span of 25 starts, Stieb had pitched three one hitters and a two hitter. Three times he had lost a no hitter with just one out to go, one of them a would-be perfect game. In the history of baseball, just four men (Johnny Vander Meer, Allie Reynolds, Virgil Trucks, and Nolan Ryan) have pitched two no hitters in one season. Stieb was four batters away from recording four within eleven months. Over the four starts, Stieb tossed 36 innings, allowed five hits, one run, seven walks, and recorded twenty eight strike outs, four complete games, and three shutouts. Still he failed to get his name into the record books.

Just over a year later, Stieb would finally break through. The 1990 season, much like this year, was marked by an unusually high number of no-nos. As Stieb made his start on September 2nd, there had been six already on the season, not including the Yankees' Andy Hawkins' lost no-hitter against Chicago on July 1st nor future Yankee Melido Perez' rain shortened no-no against the Yankees on July 12th.

Facing the Indians at Cleveland Municipal Stadium, the site of his first heartbreaker nearly two years earlier, Stieb recorded the seventh and final no hitter of 1990, and the first in Blue Jay history. He walked four, but struck out nine, getting Jerry Browne to line out to right for that elusive twenty seventh out.

Stieb pitched two more injury plagued seasons for the Jays before signing a free agent deal with the White Sox. He made just four appearances in a Chicago uniform before being released less than two months into the season. He spent four full years out of baseball before resurfacing with Toronto as a 40 year old swingman in 1998. His second to last Major League appearance came on September 20th, against Tampa Bay, the team Morrow nearly no hit Sunday. Stieb came on in relief of a Blue Jay making his Big League debut: Roy Halladay, who of course tossed a perfect game of his own earlier this season.

The Merits Of A Pitcher's Stats Against One Team

Mike from The Yankeeist has some strong words for the way media built up the return of Roy Halladay last night:

The problem wasn't the hype itself, but how it was justified. There should be pregame excitement anytime the Yankees face a pitcher who is having the kind of season Doc is having. But the game was sold to fans on the basis of Halladay's career numbers against the Yankees. This kind of sloppy journalism is prevalent in the baseball media, and should be criticized.

I think not citing Halladay's career numbers would have been a far more egregious error. It's a valid storyline. He'd pitched more than a full season's worth against the Yankees in his career and had great results. How do you not bring that up?

Of course, as Mike goes on to explain, even though Doc had thrown a ton of innings to the Yanks, the numbers he compiled don't really mean anything:

The baseball media frequently cites a player's career performance against a given team to provide insight into how that player should do right now against that same team. This makes no sense. Sticking with the current example, Roy Halladay has been logging time in the AL East since 1998. How, exactly, do his numbers against Scott Brosius or Jason Giambi help understand what he can be expected to do when he faces the Yankees in 2010? The answer, of course, is that they can't, but baseball struggles to grasp this.

In addition to the Yankee lineup fluctuating, the defense behind Halladay has constantly shifted, the turf underneath him in Toronto has changed, he's thrown to tons of different catchers and most importantly, he's evolved as a pitcher. Essentially, what you are looking at when you try to analyze Halladay's career stats against the Yankees (or any pitcher's line against a certain team) are a bunch of very small samples, recorded over a very long time, and smushed together to look like one big one. And, by the way, looking at his career numbers against the Yankees tells you the same thing that looking at his overall numbers tell you - Roy Halladay is like, really awesome at pitching.

But there's two parts to this - the validity of the stats and how they are being used. Mike calls it "sloppy journalism", but that strikes me as a sort of hollow, straw man argument. Its' not like it's factually incorrect. Halladay has owned the Yankees and you can bet that the players in the clubhouse are keenly aware of it. Why then shouldn't the media talk about it? It doesn't have predictive value, but no one I care to read was trying to predict what the outcome of the game would be anyway. It was one of things that was ubiquitously noted because, well, it was worth noting.

Did anyone guarantee that Halladay was going to turn in a great game? I'm not aware of such a proclamation. I think most Yankee fans sort of braced for impact (like Mike's co-author at the Yankeeist, Larry did) simply because after seeing it happen so many times, it's a natural reaction.

So why do we fans have the desire read about games before they happen? Why do we bother to write a preview for all 162 of them here? It's rare that something your read beforehand will manifest itself in the game in a meaningful way, isn't it?

In general, we are all probably a little anxious for the game to start and reading about it helps pass the time. We love the team and find that harnessing some of that anticipation and reading up on an impending game helps us look forward to it.

More specifically, when I write a preview or read one that someone else has written, it's because I want to have an understanding of any trends and storylines coming in and try to develop some sort of a framework that will make what's unfolding on the field a little more coherent and interesting to me. Some of those things might be statistical, but the personalities and rivalries and the who-owns-who are compelling in their own way, even if they don't pass the statistical smell test.

Game 64 Recap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

On an ordinary night against Roy Halladay, the rough patch that CC Sabathia hit in the fourth might have been enough to put the Yankees behind for the rest of the night.

The Big Fella had allowed only one walk and struck out six the first time through the order but things started going awry when Chase Utley chopped one right back over Sabathia's head that he could only deflect with his pitching hand out of reflex (he seems to do this more often than most pitchers, no?). Placido Polanco then looped a soft flare up the middle just out of CC's reach, Ryan Howard got hit with a 1-2 pitch and the Phillies were in business - bases loaded with no one out. Jayson Werth poked the first pitch he saw through the left side to get the Phillies on the board. Raul Ibanez fell behind 0-2 before fighting back bring the count full and ground one to right field to give the Phils their second run.

With the bases still loaded, Ben Francisco grounded a ball softly to Mark Teixeira in what looked like enough time for Teix to come home with the throw and get the force out. Instead, he went to second base apparently looking to start a double play but Sabathia didn't make it to first to cover, seemingly surprised that Teix didn't try to stop the runner from scoring. That third run was all the Phillies would get across in the game or the inning as CC struck out Juan Castro and Carlo Ruiz grounded out to end the threat.

On many nights, three runs seems like an impossible task against Halladay. Fortunately, the Yanks offense had already spotted Sabathia five in the first three innings. Brett Garnder slashed a two run triple in the second and Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher both took Doc deep in the third. Mark Teixeira also went yard in the fifth on a sky high pop up that kept carrying towards the right field foul pole and snuck out right by the camera stand.

Halladay had allowed just three home runs all year long and the Yankees doubled that total in a span of three innings. It's not like he was just throwing meatballs - the pitch Granderson went deep on was well down and in - but he left an inordinate number of fastballs over the middle of the plate. His typical movement just wasn't there and the Yanks went to town. Due in part to a 29 pitch second inning, Halladay was at 100 through six innings and that was it.

The Yanks were lucky to catch a great pitcher on an off night and if it wasn't for some tough breaks for CC in the fourth, this one never would have been in doubt. The Yanks look to keep the ball rolling tonight as the significantly less intimidating Jamie Moyer squares up against A.J. Burnett.

Game 64: I Don't Need No Doctor

When the Yankees and Phillies opened last year's World Series at Yankee Stadium, the pitching match up featured both clubs' aces, as CC Sabathia faced Cliff Lee. If you were to believe the rumors leading up to last year's trade deadline however, there was a good chance that Doc Halladay would have been the Game One pitcher for one of those two teams.

On July 7th last year, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal floated a weather balloon about the Blue Jays shopping Roy Halladay, and the rumor mill instantaneously kicked into overdrive. Almost immediately the defending champion Phillies were pegged as the most likely landing spot, with the Yankees considered another strong match. As the July 31st deadline approached the Phillies continually balked at Toronto's asking price and instead moved to Plan B, scoring Cliff Lee from the Indians for a lesser package. Meanwhile, neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox blinked in a divisional game of chicken, and Halladay woke up on August 1st as Toronto property.

Toronto G.M. J.P. Ricciardi probably overplayed his hand in hanging onto Halladay. When he was dismissed following the season, Alex Anthopoulos took over and he immediately began shopping the Blue Jays' most valuable asset. On December 16th, Anthopoulos unloaded Doc, sending him to Philadelphia in a complex and confusing four team trade that netted Toronto virtually the same package Philadelphia had refused to move five months earlier. As part of the deal, Philly shipped Lee to Seattle.

So while Doc Halladay will take Lee's place in opposing Sabathia in tonight's interleague series opener, Lee once again finds himself sitting atop the auction block. He's been outstanding after spending the first month of the season on the DL, and with Seattle sporting the Majors' third worst record and Lee being a free agent at season's end, he's assured to be traded for the third time in a year by the time the July 31st deadline rolls around.

Predictably, the Yankees are once rumored as a prime landing spot for the prize of the trade market. And it just doesn't add up to me. Last year, there was a demonstrable need for a pitcher like Roy Halladay. Joba Chamberlain was struggling and facing an innings cap. Chien-Ming Wang was ineffective and out for the season following shoulder surgery. Sergio Mitre was plain ineffective. And even at that, the Yankees found the price for a year and two months of Roy Halladay to be too steep.

The Yankees are facing no such issues right now. Their starting rotation is arguably the best in baseball. Yes Javier Vazquez struggled early on, and yes Phil Hughes will face some innings restrictions later this year (albeit less restrictive than Chamberlain's last year), but one through five I'll take my chances with the current rotation. So why would the Yankees surrender a similar package now when the need is much less and when the target in question is under contract for only three months more?

Cliff Lee is amongst the game's best pitchers and he'll make a fine prize for someone by the end of July. While numerous Yankee fans have been salivating over his impending free agency since before this season even began, there just isn't the need for him now nor the justification for paying the likely asking price. The Yankees decided they didn't need Doc at last year's deadline, and they passed on him again when he was up for bid in the off-season. I'm hopeful they'll repeat that decision when it comes to Cliff Lee at this year's deadline. The Yankees know what's ailing them, and at present, it's not starting pitching.

I don't need no doctor
'Cause I know what's ailing me
I don't need no doctor, no, no
'Cause I know what's ailing me

[Song Notes: Originally recorded by Ray Charles, performances of this song by Charles are hard to come by, as we found when I tried to use it in a post about David Robertson last year. The version here comes from Humble Pie, the band with which Peter Frampton first rose to prominence. This performance comes from 1971, shortly after Frampton left the band. It's been covered by several other artists through the years, including blog favorite Gov't Mule, who began using it as a coda to another Humble Pie tune, "30 Days in the Hole".

It was also recorded by John Scofield on That's What I Say, his 2005 tribute album to Charles. I would have used a Scofield version here, which is very true to the original, except the Sco version prominently features John Mayer and I just couldn't bring myself to embed that here].

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Alex Rodriguez is once again out of the lineup, but is available to pinch hit and figures to return tomorrow. Jorge Posada returns to DHing after catching Sunday. Sergio Mitre has been placed on the DL with an oblique injury; Boone Logan has been recalled.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada DH
Brett Gardner LF
Francisco Cervelli C
Ramiro Pena 3B

LHP CC Sabathia

Phillies:

Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Placido Polanco 3B
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth RF
Raul Ibanez LF
Ben Francisco DH
Juan Castro DH
Carlos Ruiz C

AL East Q&A: Drunk Jays Fans

And now it's time for the final installment of our quest to survey the landscape of the AL East. After this, we can all stick our heads back up our asses and go back to only caring about the Yankees and the team they are playing at the time.

In some ways I think we've saved the best for last. Drunk Jays Fans has been providing the kind of vulgarity and analysis that we at Fack Youk strive for since the very beginning of 2007 - back when this blog was just a couple of pixels in a server in White Plains. Andrew Stoeten and Dustin Parkes might be drunk, but they are kindly drunks. One of the signature offerings on their site are the helpful guides which explain things like how to delude yourself into believing your team will still make the playoffs and how to sneak down into good seats at the Rogers Centre. They also do a post each year breaking down the most prominent Blue Jays-related blogs on the interwebs which is well worth the read. Now they well help us make sense of where the Toronto Blue Jays are at heading into the 2010 season:

FY: For the first time since 2002, the Jays' Opening Day starter will not be Roy Halladay. How are you dealing with the loss? Are you satisfied with the package that the team got in exchange for Doc? Could Kyle Drabek help the Big League club this year?

Dustin Parkes: Jays fans have had so little to cheer for outside of every fifth day when Roy Halladay would start otherwise meaningless games that removing him from the team is like cutting off the index fingers of a thumbless man. It hurts for now, but if there's hope that the procedure somehow leads to having Antonio Alfonseca hands in the future, the pain becomes berable.

While no one is going to replace Halladay to Toronto's fan base, as far as the package that the Jays got in return, Brett Wallace can definitely fill out a pair of trousers. And Kyle Drabek and Travis d'Arnaud aren't too shabby either.

I recently saw one of those Jim Bowden videos on FOXsports.com where he interviews baseball executives on a webcam (because he just like totally gets social media and internetty things). In the episode that I saw, Bowden spoke with all of the GMs involved in the Halladay deal, and while Alex Anthopoulos doesn't come right out and say it, it's fairly clear that he got the best deal he possibly could have.

Considering that Roy Halladay in his prime couldn't help the Blue Jays out of their mediocrity, it's doubtful that Drabek, Wallace or d'Arnaud will supply anything close to an immediate impact. However, if Toronto's playoff drought has been good for anything, it's been in developing patience and all Jays fans have right now is the hope that things will improve, and this threesome makes that hope more realistic than it's ever been.

FY: Thirty-two year old Bronx native Randy Ruiz was excellent at the plate for Toronto over 130 plate appearances last year, smacking 10 home runs (3 against the Yanks) and accumulating a line of .313/.385/.635. How does he fit into the picture this year? Will he finally see significant playing time in the Majors after 10+ years spent almost exclusively as a farmhand?

Andrew Stoeten: He doesn't really fit into the picture, and it's unfortunate, but there just isn't a realistic place to put him-- especially with a manager like Cito, who would love nothing more than to fill out the exact same lineup card every day of the season. (Ugh). Most fans, I think, would love to see the Jays give Ruiz a genuine shot, but not if it means watching Adam Lind butcher balls out in left field all year, or anybody other than Lyle Overbay attempting to corral all the throws Edwin Encarnacion is going to try to launch into the first row.

It's funny, because this year's Jays are exactly the kind of team that should be giving a guy like Ruiz a chance to show he's not just a AAAA player, but barring injury I really don't see it happening. Even if Overbay is eventually moved, it will open the door more for Wallace than Ruiz.

Perhaps if he makes good use of the few at bats he's given something will change, but as far as it seems now, as usual, it's a longshot.

FY: The Jays signed Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechevarria to a $10M deal in March and rumor has it that he passed on a larger offer from the Yankees. How do you feel about the acquisition and how high in the farm system is he going to start the season?

Stoeten: There's really nothing not to like about the deal. Ownership and the new GM have said repeatedly that, while they're not going to spend money just to spend it, they've still got capital, and they're open to anything that they believe will help the club in the long run. Not only does the Hechevarria deal add the kind of potential asset that, as Alex Anthopoulos likes to say, doesn't often become available, it also shows ownership's willingness to put their money where their mouth is.

Most expect him to start at New Hampshire in Double-A, which sounds reasonable-enough to me.

FY: Aaron Hill broke out with 36 homers (more than twice his highest previous total) and a .357 wOBA last year (also a personal best), but his OBP (.330) was slightly lower than his career mark. IS HE ON STEROIDS? In all seriousness, what are the chances he can duplicate or improve on his production this season? Where do you think he ranks among the very deep second base crop in the AL East?

DP: Here's my theory on the Aaron Hill power surge: While he was out with a concussion for most of 2008, the only thing he could do was lift weights. He managed to beef up a bit and it resulted in a more powerful swing. However, it would be foolish to expect the same power numbers this year. What we might be able to expect, based on his Spring Training numbers, is a more patient approach at the plate.

Less home runs, but more doubles and walks will still rank Hill as the most valuable second baseman in the AL East, no matter what Dustin Pedroia's brother tries to tell children.

FY: Lastly, how do you think the standings will look when the season comes to a close?

Parkes: Yankees, Rays, Sox, Orioles, Jays.

FY: Thank you gentlemen for your time.

Did Philly Really Need Roy Halladay?

Yesterday one of the biggest, most complex, and - to me at least - confusing trades of the past several years was finally completed. The Phillies sent Cliff Lee, who they acquired at last summer's deadline for a package of prospects after they and Toronto couldn't agree on a package for Roy Halladay, to the Mariners for a package of prospects. Philly then sent a package of their own prospects - one nearly identical to the one they balked at less than five months ago - to Toronto for Roy Halladay and $6M. Then, Toronto took one of the minor leaguers they received from Philly, Michael Taylor, and flipped him to Oakland for Brett Wallace, who was the centerpiece of the package Oakland received for Matt Holiday just five days before Philly pulled the trigger on the first Cliff Lee deal. Got all that?

What confuses me isn't keeping all the players and parties straight. It's that I can't figure out what Philly is thinking here. Don't get me wrong, the Phillies hauled in the unquestioned best player amongst the nine on the move in this deal. But I don't get why they're willing to pay virtually the same price for Halladay now that they refused to pay in July, and to do it for a half a year less of his services.

Further, I can't figure out why they would pay that cost now, essentially decimating their farm system, to make an incremental upgrade from a top ten pitcher in Cliff Lee to a top five pitcher in Halladay, especially when they were universally lauded for making a smart deal for Lee when the Halladay price was too high five months ago. Lee is more than a year younger, has 1,060 fewer professional innings on his odometer, is half as expensive as Halladay in 2010, and they had to commit a $20M per year extension to Halladay that will carry him through his age 36 or age 37 season.

But let's back up the train a bit. In July, Toronto was apparently asking Philadelphia for J.A. Happ, Dominic Brown, and Kyle Drabek - son of former Yankee pitcher Doug Drabek. The Phils continually balked at that request, deeming Drabek untouchable and were willing to offer Carlos Carrasco instead. When a Halladay deal couldn't be reached Philly turned to Cleveland, and were able to bring in Lee for Carrasco, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, and Lou Marson. The Lee trade allowed them to keep all the proposed chips from the Halladay deal but cost them their number 2, 3, 4, and 10 prospects according to Baseball America.

Less than five months later Philly chose to make the deal for Halladay, surrendering Drabek, as well as Michael Taylor in place of Brown and Travis D'Arnaud in place of Happ. In surrending this package they give up their number 5, 6, and 7 prospects, but did get to keep their top prospect in Brown, as well as Happ, who has proven himself capable of pitching at the Major League level.

In order to afford Halladay, and to restock their beleaguered farm system, Philly then shipped the younger, less used, less expensive Lee to the Mariners for Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramirez. Aumont ranked as Seattle's third best prospect, Ramirez as their fifth. Gillies didn't rank, though he did profile as their system's top base runner and best outfield arm.

Then just for good measure, Toronto flipped Taylor to Oakland for third baseman Brett Wallace. Hypothetically, if not for the Halladay deal, Philly could have made the same trade with Oakland and received Wallace, which in turn may have prevented them from committing three years and $19M to 34 year old - and declining - Placido Polanco, who has made just 43 appearances at the hot corner over the past seven seasons. Making that hypothetical trade and saving the Polanco money might have allowed them to use that money and the money they'll be paying Halladay towards an extension for Lee.

I don't know that this was bad a series of trades for Philadelphia, but I'm unsure that they were necessary. I suppose the regime change in Toronto had something to do with it. And I suppose Seattle's apparent willingness to go all in for 2010 played a role in the decisions as well. But it boils down to Philly trading seven of their top ten prospects, and six of their top seven, to get Halladay, two of Seattle's top ten prospects, a third Seattle prospect, and $6M - or enough to cover slightly more than 75% of the 2010 salary difference between Halladay and Lee.

Now not all prospects are the same and not all systems are created equal. Perhaps the package Philly received from Seattle is comparable to what they gave up for Lee in the first place. But it doesn't appear to be. Instead, they've given up seven of their own guys - guys who they drafted and developed and know very well - to get a pitcher who's only slightly better than the one they gave had and three other prospects about whom they don't know nearly as much. It just doesn't add up to me.

Minor League Monday: Jesus Montero

Jesus Montero is the unquestioned crown jewel of the Yankees' minor league system. I was hoping to save him for some sort of momentous post, but given that this week marks the peak of the Hot Stove season we may as well trot out a Montero profile now. Besides, I want to make sure we get him in now in case he's included in a deal for Roy Halladay.

A righy swinging catcher, Montero was born in Venezuela and signed as an international free agent in 2006. Initially given a signing bonus of $2M, it was later reduced after a poor showing in minicamp and reports that Montero may have misrepresented his age. Still, Montero was considered the best power hitter amongst the 2006 international signees.

He made his U.S. debut the following year as a 17 year old in the rookie Gulf Coast League and posted a line of .280/.366/.421. Following the season, Baseball America listed him as the Yankees' sixth best prospect, and third best position player behind Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. Despite just 33 games of professional experience, Montero's performance was enough to earn him a non-roster invitation to Spring Training in 2008, where he homered in his only at bat.

He spent the entirety of the 2008 season at low A Charleston, where he split the catching and DH duties with fellow top prospect Austin Romine, posted a .326/.376/.491 line with 17 HR, and earned mid-season and post-season All-Star honors. He was also selected to the mid-season Futures Game. Baseball America upped him to second on the Yankees' prospect list.

2009 saw both Montero and Romine promoted to high A Tampa, where they continued splitting time between catching and DHing. Montero destroyed the Florida State League through 48 games, hitting 356/.406/.583 before earning an early June promotion to AA Trenton. He showed no signs of slowing down there, posting a five game home run streak at one point and batting .317/.370/.539. All the more impressive is that he did it as a 19 year old in just his third professional season, in a league that historically favors pitching, and in a park that historically suppresses offense.

Montero's season ended prematurely, thanks to a broken finger suffered at the start of August. Still, he was named to the mid-season All-Star of both the Florida State and Eastern Leagues and was named to his second consecutive Futures Game. In their mid-season report, Baseball America named him the third best prospect in all of baseball.

Montero's finger injury has healed and he's currently playing winter ball in Venezuela for Los Navegantes del Magallenes. However, he's appeared in just nine games, none since November 5th, and is hitting just .115. His absence is not injury related though; he's just playing behind an older and more experienced teammate.

There are concerns about Montero's ability to be a catcher in the long term. He carries a 6'4" 225 lb frame and there are questions about his footwork and mobility. The Yankees will likely give him every opportunity to fail as a catcher before moving him to another position. His bat will play anywhere, as a recent profile stated Montero is "a potential once-in-a-generation force on offense".

Montero's likely ticketed for AAA Scranton in 2010, but the organization may want to send him back to Trenton to start the season. There's a chance that he could see the Bronx this year, but I wouldn't count on it. Just to gain some perspective though on how good this 20 year old is, here are his MLB projections for 2010 and his combined minor league equivalents from 2009:

(Click for larger image)

Clearly not enough to warrant a Major League starting job, at least not on a team that hopes to contend, but to consider that a 20 year old potential catcher could put up such lines is very impressive. In the history of baseball there have been 11 men to post slugging percentages over .400 as 20 year old rookies: Ted Williams, Frank Robinson, Bob Horner, Orlando Cepeda, Ruben Sierra, Willie Mays, Miguel Cabrera, Hank Aaron, Eddie Matthews, Arky Vaughan, and Ron Santo. Seven Hall of Famers, one more who should be, one more who might be, and two guys who had lengthy productive careers. That's pretty lofty company.

Montero will be mentioned in any major trade discussion the Yankees have, and will be asked for in even the minor discussions. Maybe the right deal will present itself where it would be worthwhile to deal Montero. Maybe Montero never pans out to what he promises to be, or maybe a move from behind the plate leaves him without a spot on the Yankees, or saps him of his full value. But right now, it's one of the pleasures of being a Yankee fan to look at what he's already done and imagine what may be in the future.

Gentlemen, Start Your Engines

Thus begins the Indy 500 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway every Memorial Day weekend, and it's an apt phrase for this morning as the Winter Meetings begin in Indianapolis. I'm sure there will be a flood of tweets and blog updates and exclusive scoops and the like stemming from Indy these next four days. Unlike what we've heard for the last month though, I'm more inclined to believe that this week's rumors will have some merit to them.

Still, with the constantly evolving landscape of MLB economics, we may not see as much as we'd hope this week. Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and John Lackey will set the overall market as the top free agents and there aren't any indications that any of them are close to signing. With the Rule 5 Draft occurring Thursday and the non-tender deadline Saturday, teams may wait another week until the entire landscape is known.

As for the Yankees, their hands are somewhat tied at present. They currently have 39 players on their 40 man roster, meaning they only have room to sign one Major League free agent. It looks increasingly less likely that the spot will be filled by Mike Cameron, who reportedly is close to signing with the Cubs. That deal however apparently is contingent upon the Cubs moving Milton Bradley, and the rumored trade with Tampa may not be as close to completion as had been thought. It's also unlikely that the spot will be filled by Cuban pitcher Noel Arguelles, as he is reportedly close signing with the Royals.

Based on the news coming out of last week's organizational meetings, that spot could have gone to Andy Pettitte, who was deemed the top off-season priority. However, according to Joel Sherman this morning, Pettitte has rejected the Yankees initial offer of one year, $10M guaranteed. Though it's likely just part of the negotiating process it's a bit concerning. The club is willing to guarantee Pettitte's salary from last year without any incentive clauses; he isn't worth much more than what he's already been offered.

The Yankees could make room on the 40 man via trade, as they did with last year's Nick Swisher deal. A trade for Roy Halladay would likely make room on the 40 man, but I doubt he'll be dealt to anyone this week. The Yankees could make a package deal this week with spare parts, otherwise they'll have to wait to non-tender to open additional room.

So, as the clubs start their engines, we should buckle our seat belts in preparation for the ride.

Waiting For The Hot Stove To Cook

Good morning Fackers. Well the long holiday weekend is behind us and we're back at the daily grind. While we slowed things down over the weekend the Hot Stove rumor mill kept a churning. The Roy Halladay machine kept rolling: he'll accept a trade to the Yankees, The Red Sox don't want to lose him to the Yankees, the Jays want a Major League ready arm and bat, and on and on and on.

Oh yeah, we also heard that the Blue Jays like Jesus Montero. Well, no kidding. You know who else likes Jesus Montero? The other 28 clubs in Major League Baseball. That's some ground breaking journalism there Heyman. Oh yes, the Blue Jays might be interested in Baseball America's number three overall prospect if they were to trade their ace pitcher. Surprise, surprise.

Meanwhile, an entirely different Hot Stove rumor broke, ramped up, and flamed out, all before the turkey carcass was picked clean. On the heels of his failure to reach a contract extension with the Marlins came the rumors that Josh Johnson was on the market. On Friday, ESPN's Keith Law speculated as to what the Marlins could get in exchange for Johnson (a lot) and things just snowballed from there. Next came word that the Marlins were "very willing" to move him for the right package. Almost immediately, contrary reports came out. Amazingly, it was chief rumor-mongerer Ken Rosenthal who broke what as of now is the going story: that the Marlins have no intention of moving Johnson prior to Opening Day.

I have to admit, I was intrigued by the possibility of Josh Johnson. Not that Roy Halladay isn't an outstanding pitcher, but as RAB's Mike Axisa pointed out last week, opportunities to acquire young, talented pitchers like Johnson are rare.

I hate to keep striking the same chord that we've been strumming all off-season thus far, but there's rarely any merit to these rumors. At this stage in the off-season, virtually everyone is up for grabs. Teams float weather balloons to see what the market is for a particular player or a particular type of player. But the truth of the matter is that this is dead time right now, and the national baseball writers have to write about something until the real moving and shaking starts happening.

The good news is that it's about to start happening. Today is the final day of November. Teams have until tomorrow to offer arbitration to their free agents. Once that's done, teams will know who amongst the Type A free agents carry draft pick compensation. Armed with the knowledge, the real free agent courting process will begin in earnest, leading into the Winter Meetings December 7th through 10th. Once the top free agents sign, market value will be established, the lesser free agents will fall in, and in some ways, the trade market will be determined as well. It's only a matter of days before the Hot Stove really starts cooking. Until then, I'm filing everything away as near baseless rumors.

Two More Yankee Rumors We're Not Buying

First up, via MLBTR, Bob Nightengale throws out one that's new to me:

Not so quietly anymore, apparently.

Even if we assume that Nightengale's sources are correct and that Brian Cashman has let other GM's know that Swisher is available for the right package (which every player essentially is), I can't see this leading to an actual trade.

We've discussed the state of flux that the Yankees' outfield is in this offseason multiple times, but with the assumption that Nick Swisher remaining in right field was a constant. Swish had a solid (albeit streaky) year at the plate and is signed for a reasonable $6.75M next year and $9M in 2011 with a $10.25M team option for 2012. With a team-friendly salary and above average offensive production (29 HR, 129 OPS+), Swish - along with Robinson Cano - make up the extent of movable impact bats in the Yankee lineup, so of course the club should listen to offers for him.

However, if Cashman does decide to trade Swisher, it would leave the Yankees with holes to fill in each corner of the outfield this offseason. As a slugging switch hitter, Swisher is a key component of the Yankees lineup and his average defense in RF over the last two years certainly hasn't been a detriment. Sure, the Yankees could trade him, but in all likelihood, they'd have to replace him with someone who is either not as good or more expensive.

If the Yankees played inside of a vacuum instead of in the Bronx, it might make sense to trade Swisher. They'd be certain to get back more than they gave up for him last offseason, thus "buying low and selling high", but it's unlikely that it would suit the club's long term plans, something that Brain Cashman undoubtedly would take into consideration.

The other rumor, which is now one day internet month old, is that Jon Heyman thinks the Yankees "have a real reason to believe" they could land Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays have reportedly willing to deal within the division and have granted Halladay a window to negotiate with any potential trade partner. That window would be used to determine if the team would be willing to extend him a contract offer that he would be in favor of waiving his no-trade clause for.

The fact that a team could secure him long term would help justify sacrificing the prospects they give up, but what kind of contract would Halladay be looking for? Considering that Doc is 32 years old, he probably wouldn't get CC Sabathia or Johan Santana money, but let's say, conservatively, it's 5 years at $100M. Would the Yankees really want to lock up very nearly $60M a year in three starting pitchers (Halladay, Sabathia & Burnett) for the next 4 years?

The Yanks had a chance to pay the double barreled cost of prospects plus a free agent-sized contract to acquire Johan Santana from the Twins (via a similar negotiating window) and passed. Do we really think that they want to do it now, after committing to Burnett and Sabathia with large and lengthy contracts? Our friends at River Ave. Blues don't.

I think that that situations involving Swisher and Halladay have a common thread. In both cases, the Yankees are doing their due diligence even though neither are likely to culminate in a trade. Reporters are paid to churn up these kinds of details during the offseason and might as well present them as if there is something to them. And that's generously assuming that these reports are correct.

A good GM should be leaving no stone unturned this time of year. They should be collecting every trade offer possible and inquiring about everyone who is available. But keep that in mind when one of these transmissions is breathlessly reported and subsequently analyzed. There's a lot more said than actually done 'round the ol' hot stove.

Dodging Zack Greinke

When I saw that Kansas City's ace and lone star player had pitched a nice game against the Red Sox last week (contrary to the observations of Jim Rice), I figured that the Yanks would be running into him as well when the Royals came to town this week.

Up until that point, one of the very few remaining arguments against Zack Greinke's right to the AL Cy Young was the fact that he hadn't faced the Yankees or Red Sox this season. Needless to say, this is a pretty weak point both because pitcher's can't control their own schedule and if you wanted to complain about a lack of competition, you might want to start by noting that he pitches in the AL Central.

The reason that the Yankees didn't see him the first time around this year goes back to the fact that Gil Meche was tagged as the opening day starter for the Royals. This was due in part because he had that designation ever since being signed to a 5 year, $55M deal before the beginning of the 2007 season, but we can be sure it won't be the case next year, barring some unforeseen circumstances. Greinke was the Royals best pitcher last year too, but not by all that much, and as such was ticketed to start the second game of the season. As a result, when the Yankees came to town for the 4th through 6th games of the season, they missed the Zack Attack who pitched in the 2nd and 7th.

[Sidenote: The Yankees actually drafted Zack's younger brother Luke in the 12th round out of Auburn University last June. The lesser Greinke started 9 games for the Staten Island Yanks to a 4.01 ERA in 33 1/3 IP but was released out of Spring Training this year, before he could be assigned to a higher level of the minor leagues.]

As fate would have it, however, Zack Greinke shut down the Twins over 7 innings on Sunday night, temporarily derailing their charge for the AL Central title, and will once again miss the Yankees. This would be a welcome reprieve during the regular season, one that the Yankees never seem to get from the likes of Roy Halladay. However, with nothing left to be determined but how many games over 100 the Yankees can win and who gets the last few spots on the postseason roster, it would have been nice to see Greinke make a start which could potentially tip which way the Cy Young voting goes.

As Joe Posnanski has seemingly taken it upon himself to prove, Greinke is having a historically great season. He currently leads the league with an absurd 2.06 ERA (213 ERA+) and 1.066 WHIP, and has struck out 237 and walked just 49 in 223 1/3 IP. He's gone fewer than six innings only four times all year, and in two of those outings, he didn't allow any runs. His six complete games are second only to Roy Halladay's 8 and both of them have 3 shutouts to their name. Basically, the only reason he hasn't won 20 games yet is because the Royals are historically inept offensively.

As Jason pointed out this morning, Greinke's ERA in his losses is just about equal to CC Sabathia's overall mark. Were he having the same type of season for the Yankees, he'd likely be headed for 25+ wins. If he doesn't get the Cy Young it will rank alongside choosing Bartolo Colon over Johan Santana - and to a lesser extent, Mariano Rivera - in 2005 in terms of recent egregious snubs.

It's too bad we won't be able to see him first hand against the Yankees.

Thursday Night News And Links

It's Thursday, and the Yankees once again have the night off. Former Yankees General Manager and Hall of Famer George M. Weiss has some suggestions to keep you occupied in the meantime.

The Red Sox play the Royals out in Kansas City tonight, which means they will be making a pretty late arrival to NYC tomorrow morning. The magic number is currently at 5 after a Sox win last night, but it could drop to 4 if they lose tonight. This means that the Yanks would have to take just two out of three to clinch the division at home against Boston. Something called Anthony Lerew would have to out pitch Clay Bucholz for that to happen, however.

The Twins and Angels are off, but Tigers are playing the Indians tonight and sending Justin Verlander to the hill. Detroit still holds a 2.5 game lead over Minnesota but those teams have 4 head to head games remaining against reach other, so anything could happen.

In college football, #4 Ole Miss (the highest ranking the school has had since Archie Manning played there) takes on South Carolina.

Peter Gammons has sure elicited some strong reaction after suggesting the MLB might want to "think" about adding one Wild Card team to each league. Craig Calcaterra thinks the system is fine the way it is. Kevin Kaduk concurs. Jason thinks it ain't broke neither. Joe from RAB would actually prefer the playoffs to be scaled down before they are expanded.

Joel Sherman is just about the only person I've heard agree with Gammons, citing the fact that it's nearly impossible for a team other than the Yankees and the Red Sox to make the postseason in the current format.

In related news, since the Blue Jays won't be contending any time soon, Joe from RAB suggests that the Jays trade Roy Halladay and get some value for him while they still can.

Fangraphs takes a look at A-Rod in the postseason since he's joined the Yankees and points out that over the same span, Derek Jeter hasn't been any great shakes either. An astute commenter points out that saying A-Rod "doesn't" hit well in the playoffs (like the post did) is much different that saying he "hasn't" which implies that he still could.

Speaking of FanGraphs, they released their iPhone app today. For $2.99, you get live WPA and most everything you'd expect to be available from the website. Yes, I've already downloaded it.

Jayson Stark ranks the playoff rotations.

Jon from Subway Squawkers wonders if the Yankees are a leading economic indicator.

Via Baseball Musings, Rays Index points out that before the Daily News crowns the Yankees' infield the best ever, they might want to take into consideration that the Rays' IF put up better numbers this year.

Jim Rice: Still an ass.

Our boy HowFresh calls out Plaxico Burress for the last meal he ate before he went to prison and shows him how it's done.

Terrible news for Giants fans.

And finally, this is pretty damn cool. (via Schiff on Google Reader)

Yanks Take Some Lumps, Hand Some Out

In the eight starts Sergio Mitre made for the Yankees since being called up from AAA, he gave up 4 home runs in 41 innings. Of the 61 hits he allowed, only 14 went for extra bases. As a result opponents were hitting .337 against him (insanely high), but slugging .486 (not as much).

The Serg had certainly done his fair share of sucking this year, but he did a decent job of keeping the ball in the park, mainly getting singled to death in his poorer starts.

Not tonight though. Mitre got pasted for 4 homers in 5 innings, allowing 6 runs and leaving men on 2nd and 3rd for Edwar Ramirez before getting yanked without getting an out in the 6th inning. Ramirez wriggled out of the jam, allowing only 1 run, but the shitshow raised Mitre's ERA to 7.93 and certainly didn't help his case to make the postseason roster.

Roy Halladay wasn't dominant as Yankees' bats actually accumulated 11 hits and a walk with him on the hill, but couldn't get him to break. They advanced at least one runner to second base in each of the six innings he pitched but only scored two runs off of Halladay, both in the 2nd. It was a frustrating night at the plate, something that could have contributed to what happened later in the game.

Things got a little heated in the bottom of the 8th inning when lefty reliever Jesse Carlson threw one well behind Jorge Posada's back, apparently in retaliation for Mark Melancon hitting Aaron Hill in the top of the frame. Melancon was clearly having control problems as he had walked a batter, thrown a wild pitch and another in the dirt. He hit Hill squarely in the back, but it didn't seem intentional at the time.

Carlson, on the other hand, had thrown 18 of 29 pitches for strikes and then threw one a foot or more behind Posada. Jorge didn't appreciate that and took a few steps toward Carlson saying "You don't want to do that". The dugouts emptied but the situation diffused quickly and the benches were warned. Posada ended up working a walk and advanced to second on a single by Robinson Cano.

Brett Gardner then doubled to right, scoring Posada. On his way back to the dugout, Jorge brushed up against Carlson, who turned around and yelled some choice words to Posada. The catcher, never one to back down from a confrontation, spun back and charged at Carlson, again emptying the benches but this time resulting in a full scale brawl.

Joe Girardi was ensnared in fight, walking away with a cut on his ear and a lump over his left eye. Posada and Carlson were the only two ejected although other players (ahemShelleyDuncancough) appeared to be heavily involved. We'll take a closer look at the ruckus first thing tomorrow morning, complete with a video clip. I can offer you this screenshot of the ugly lump on Carlson's head to hold you over, for now.

When the dust settled, the Jays and Yanks both added a run in the 9th inning and the final tally was 10-4 in favor of Toronto although the Yanks outhit them 15 to 13. It wasn't a good night for the Yanks, but things could get worse depending on the fall out resulting from the fracas.

Game 146: The Man's Too Strong

Tonight the Yankees begin their last series of the season against the Blue Jays, a quick two game set in the Bronx. The Yanks lead the season tilt 11-5, winning every series against Toronto save for a 4 game split the last time they met.

Sergio Mitre and his 7.02 ERA will jump the bump for the Bombers this evening. After his brilliant one-hit outing against the White Sox was cut short by a line drive to his forearm, Mitre was rocked for his worst start of the year his last time out by the same team he'll be facing tonight.

The Serge was tagged for 9 runs in 4 1/3 IP and two more unearned came to the plate during that time. He struck out 5 and didn't give up any home runs, but the Yanks made three errors behind him and every ball the Jays hit seemed to find a hole. At the risk of jinxing the man, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that this start can't possibly be as bad as his last one.

Going against the Yankees tonight will be the man that has given the most trouble as a starting pitcher since he has entered the league.

Starting with at the end of the non-waiver trade deadline, Roy Halladay didn't appear to be himself. During his six starts in August, opponents hit .316/.333/.526 against him including 8 home runs, his most in a single month since April of 2003. He gave up 22 earned runs in 42 innings and allowed another 5 unearned to that total. To the casual observer, it might have seemed like he had been thrown off of his game or had mentally given in after not being traded.

However, Doc's K/BB ratio was still a fantastic 7.20, and he had gotten quite unlucky in terms of BABIP (.354) and HR/FB% (14.4%). It should have come as much of a surprise then, that he has started off September with two vintage Halladay starts, a complete game shutout against the Yankees on the 4th and a complete game loss against the Twins on the 9th.

He's thrown 9 innings in three of his four starts against the Yanks this year but has just two wins to show for his efforts. In 34 career starts against them, he has more complete games (7) than he does losses (6). He haunts the Yankees like no other active pitcher and they're going to need to put forth a solid offensive effort to overcome the strength of Halladay.

And I can still hear his laughter,
And I can still hear his song,
The man's too big,
The man's too strong.

Streak Snapped At Seven

Entering last night's game, both starting pitchers had been struggling. One of them righted his ship last night, and unfortunately for the Yankees, it wasn't Joba Chamberlain.

Chamberlain had problems right out of the gate and his defense didn't do much to help him. With one out in the first, Eric Hinske, in right field for Nick Swisher, played an Aaron Hill liner into a double. Later in the inning, Ramiro Pena, at shortstop for Derek Jeter, booted a grounder, allowing a second Toronto run to score.

Joba worked around two singles in the second, then gave up another run in the third. He exited after 59 pitches through three innings of work, giving up 6 hits, 3 runs, 2 earned, 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts. At the very least, after the game he didn't insist that he pitched well.

Roy Halladay on the other hand was dominant: perfect through four and two thirds and a no-hitter through five and a third. The Yankees threatened only once, in the sixth, using a Pena double and walks by Hinske and Mark Teixeira to load the bases with two outs. Alex Rodriguez came to the plate as the tying run, but it wasn't to be last night. Doc fanned him for one of his nine strikeouts on the night. Halladay didn't allow another baserunner for the rest of the game, finishing with a one hit, three walk shutout.

After Chamberlain exited, the four September call ups in the pen finished the game. Mark Melancon went two innings and allowed two hits, a walk, and a hitbatsman in giving up one run. Jonathan Albaladejo followed with a scoreless inning, then Mike Dunn made his Major League debut.

As we mentioned Tuesday, Dunn has a propensity for both walks and strikeouts. That, coupled with the nerves of making his first Big League appearance, led to a forgettable debut for Dunn. After retiring Rod Barajas on a screaming liner to left, Dunn threw ten consecutive pitches out of the strikezone. He recorded the second out on a fielder's choice, then walked his third batter of the inning, ending his debut. He would be charged with the final two Toronto runs on the night. Edwar Ramirez closed it out with a scoreless inning and a third.

Once again, the Yankees ended a long winning streak heading into a holiday weekend. Given the pitching situation, this one figured to be an uphill battle from the first pitch. At the very least, they managed not to burn through the top bullpen arms and to get some work in for the guys who are on the roster strictly for depth purposes. With an afternoon game today, the Yanks will have a quick opportunity to redeem themselves.

(Photos)

Game 135: The Long Road

Baseball's regular season is a long road. With the completion of game 135 tonight exactly five sixths of that road will be in the Yankees' rearview mirror. Also in the Yankees' rearview mirror is the entirety of the American League. They hold a 10.5 game lead on a playoff spot, a 7.5 game lead in the AL East, and 7 game lead for home field.

As such, the Yankees have the luxury of not having to put the pedal to the floor heading down the stretch. They didn't have to panic and make a deal for a brand name fifth starter at either trade deadline. They don't have to rush Sergio Mitre back after he took a liner off his arm last Saturday. They don't have to trot Mariano Rivera out to the mound while his groin is bothering him. They don't have to bend their already flexible rules as it pertains to Joba Chamberlain's innings and push him because they need to win games.

All of those factors will be in play tonight. Chad Gaudin, the swingman pitcher the Yankees acquired in place of a bigger named starter, spot started in place of Mitre last night and required 5.1 innings of relief from the bullpen. Mitre will start Sunday, on seven days rest and having pitched six innings just once in seven starts this year. Rivera, who did not throw his scheduled bullpen today, will be unavailable for the third consecutive game. And Joba Chamberlain will make his second consecutive start on regular rest but with a strict pitch and inning limit.

Last Sunday, Chamberlain was on a 50 pitch or 3 inning limit. He got through three on just 35 pitches. I haven't seen it posted anywhere yet, but I'd imagine that he'd be capped at about 60 pitches or 4 innings today.

The fact the Yankees even considered that Joba would reach 50 pitches prior to completing three innings speaks to how poorly he's pitched of late. Since throwing eight shutout innings against Tampa Bay on July 29th, Joba has made five starts to the tune of an 8.22 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Opponents are batting .323/.414./500 off him during that time and he's walking a Bruney-esque 5.87 per nine. He's averaged 18.78 pitches per IP during that stretch, so a three inning start tonight is a distinct possibility. Yet the delusionary Joba still insists he's pitching well (see the 5:50 update). I'm hopeful that tonight he'll turn in a performance that a more discerning observer would deem acceptable.

Either way, the Yankees will likely need four to six innings from the bullpen tonight. With Gaudin having started last night, Mitre going Sunday, and Alfredo Aceves having thrown 2.1 innings last night, they're without their usual long relief options. My guess is that Mark Melancon will follow Joba for two or three innings, then it's anyone guess from there. With Mo being day-to-day they'll likely not use Phil Hughes for more than an inning. Thankfully even with Mo and Alf presumably unavailable, they'll still have nine men in the bullpen due to September call-ups, and six of them didn't pitch last night. It should be enough to get them through the weekend.

As for the Blue Jays, they'll also send a struggling starter to the mound. Roy Halladay was one of the big name starters the Yankees were rumored to be pursuing at the deadline. The Jays ended up overplaying their hand and held on to Halladay. A Cy Young candidate at the deadline, Halladay has been horseshit since, going 2-4 with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP since, as opponents are OPSing .860 off him. One of those losses came against the Yanks on August 4th, his second straight poor start against the Yankees. They'll look to hang another "L" on him tonight.

Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher get the night off, replaced by Ramiro Pena and Eric Hinske respectively. Johnny Damon slides up to the leadoff spot, and Hinske, interestingly, bats second.

Heading into Memorial Day weekend, the Yankees had a nine game winning streak going. I wrote this preview, featuring "Once" from Pearl Jam. The Yankees lost that night.

Heading into Fourth of July weekend, the Yankees had a seven game winning streak going. I wrote this preview, featuring "State of Love and Trust" from Pearl Jam. The Yankees lost that night.

Now we're heading into Labor Day weekend (or Labour Day for the Jays fans) and the Yankees have a seven game winning streak going. In an effort to prove how non-superstitious I am (or how stubborn and stupid I am), I'm going to roll the dice again.

"The Long Road" was originally written for Mirror Ball, the 1995 album from Fack Youk's favorite Canadian, Neil Young. Pearl Jam was his backing band for the album. "The Long Road" was one of two Eddie Vedder tunes that didn't make the final cut for the album, and were later included on Pearl Jam's EP Merkin Ball, considered a companion piece to Mirror Ball.

With the Yankees in Canada this weekend, hopefully this song's connection to the Canadian Young will bring a little better luck. And hopefully tonight Joba will pitch well, even if he cannot stay around for long. Either way, tonight's another step on the season's long road.



And I wished for so long,
I cannot stay,
All the precious moments,
I cannot stay,
It's not like wings have fallen,
I cannot stay,
Without you something's missing,
I cannot stay.

Game 134: Small Axe

Tonight, the Yanks begin another series against a bird-named division rival. The four game set with the Blue Jays will cap off their 7 game road trip and the Yanks need only to take one game for it to be a winning one after sweeping the O's. When the Yanks return home they will see both of these teams again, closing out their season series against them during a 10 game homestand in the Bronx.

After leading the division as late as May 23rd and being 8 games over .500, the Blue Jays have faded 14 games under and 25 1/2 back. They are currently twice as close in the standings to the Orioles than the Rays... and that's never a good thing. Even our optimistically-named pal eyebleaf is having a hard time stomaching the downward spiral and it's tough to blame him.

Roy Halladay wasn't traded, which should have made most Jays fans happy, but due to his poor performance since the deadline and the erosion of the time left on his contract, his value is steadily decreasing for what is looking more and more like an inevitable trade this offseason. Alex Rios is gone and in return, the club got salary relief which theoretically could be used in the future, but the fans got a heaping helping of nothing for now. We don't even need to talk about Vernon Wells.

However, tonight's starter for the Jays, Ricky Romero has been one of the remaining bright spots on the team. The 24 year old rookie lefty has pitched 136.2 innings, struck out 104, is averaging 6 innings per start, has a 3.95 ERA and a 11-6 record, behind only Halladay in those categories. The Yanks have seen him twice this year and he's earned a win and a no-decision by pitching 6 & 6 1/3 innings and giving up 3 runs each time.

Chad Gaudin will be making his second start as a Yankee today. He had a rather odd start his other time out, facing another one of his former teams, the A's. Gaudin gave up no runs, and onyl one hit in 4 1/3 innings, but walked 5 and saw his pitch count quickly escalate, finishing with 90. Gaudin didn't get the win, but the Yankees did. It's hard to expect a whole lot out of Gaudin today and logic dictates that his pitch count will be limited once again. But the bullpen is deep with call ups and waiting to back him up.

Gaudin was one of the minor moves Brian Cashman executed this season and I discussed earlier today; just a small solution to a seemingly big problem.

So if you are the big tree,
We are the small axe,
Ready to cut you down (well sharp),
Sharpened to cut you down.