ALCS Game 4: Deja Vu

With the series knotted up, the Yankees took the field for their first home game of the round. They squandered a gutsy two run performance from their southpaw starter before the bullpen let things get out of hand late. It wouldn't have really mattered anyway, because Cliff Lee was that good, dominating the Yankee offense for eight innings, not allowing a single earned run. Now down a game in the series, New York turns to the mercurial A.J. Burnett in attempt to pull things even.

Sound familiar? It could easily be ripped from a recap of last night's game. Except it's not. It's a two-bit synopsis of Game One of last year's World Series, where CC Sabathia yielded just two runs over seven frames before the bullpen let things get out of hand, just as it happened last night. Where Cliff Lee shut the Yankees out for eight innings, just like last night. When Lee walked only one batter, just like last night. When Lee allowed just one Yankee baserunner to advance past first base, just like last night, before a meaningless, unearned run crossed the plate in the last of the ninth.

A.J. Burnett took the ball the very next evening and pulled the series even, turning in one of his finest starts as a Yankee: tossing seven innings of four hit, two walk ball, allowing just one run while fanning nine. Given the circumstances, it was probably the single biggest performance by a Yankee starter in the 2009 post-season.

A lot has changed since then. Lee is no longer a Phillie, in Texas after a stop in Seattle. The Yanks head into tonight's game knowing they'll be facing elimination if they lose again, circumstances a bit less manageable than facing a potential 0-2 hole last year. Burnett, who had already displayed his Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde tendencies during his first season in the Bronx, is coming off a 2010 even rockier than his 2009. He hasn't pitched in eighteen days, hasn't had a decent start in over a month, hasn't been a reliable starting pitcher since Memorial Day, and has been the object of ceaseless whippings from Joel Sherman and all other corners of the tabloid media and Yankee blogosphere.

And yet, he remains the Bombers' best option to start this game. While many would advocate bringing CC Sabathia back on short rest, I'm not sure what good that would do. There's no way Phil Hughes is being brought back on short rest. So best case scenario is that CC opposes the Rangers' worst starter and pulls the Yankees even, but they are still left to start Burnett against Texas' number two in a Game Five that could send them to brink of elimination. Worst case, a short-rested Sabathia can't pull it off, and the club is left to send Burnett to the mound with the season hanging in the balance. I'll take my chances with Burnett tonight, thank you.

Of course, all of that is assuming that Burnett is utterly incapable of doing anything but imploding tonight. And I'm not buying that argument. There's no way to put a positive spin on Burnett's season. From June on, he went 7-15 with a 5.87 ERA over 28 starts. Opponents hit .291/.375/.481 off him over that stretch. It was downright ugly. But who is A.J. Burnett? What kind of pitcher is he? I think many assume that since he pitched very well against the Yankees during his days in Toronto, that since the pitching-desperate Yankees overpaid him in both years and average annual value after their poor 2008 season, that since he was deemed a "number two" as a result of that deal, that Burnett should be a CC-lite. And I think that's an unreasonable expectation. Burnett has always been an up-and-down sort of guy, and this year for the first time, has been more downs than ups. But that doesn't change the fact that Burnett remains a talented pitcher, and a pitcher capable of giving the Yankees the performance they need tonight.

And if that fails, perhaps Tommy Hunter is the cure for what ails the suddenly anemic Yankee offense. As Aaron Gleeman pointed out this morning, and Mike Axisa expounded upon, the Rangers should have some concerns of their own when it comes to their starter for tonight. I suppose it's a lot easier to stomach those questions when you're up 2-1, and when you're a late inning meltdown away from being up 3-0. But at the very least, if Burnett implodes tonight, the Yankees have a puncher's chance to outslug the Rangers anyway.

Three hundred fifty five days after Cliff Lee last put on a pitching clinic in the South Bronx the Yankees find themselves in a similar situation: A.J. Burnett taking the ball the next day in what's essentially the closest a game can be to being "must win" without a loss resulting in elimination. I'm hoping history repeats itself, or as Yogi might say, that it's deja vu all over again.

If I had ever been here before I would probably know just what to do
Don't you?
If I had ever been here before on another time around the wheel
I would probably know just how to deal
With all of you.
And I feel
Like I've been here before
Feel
Like I've been here before
And you know
It makes me wonder
What's going on under the ground

[Song Notes: From their debut album of the same name - at least their first album where Neil Young joined Crosby, Stills, and Nash, this performance of Deja Vu comes from 1991 and is missing the "Y" in CSNY. Side note, I once randomly ran into Graham Nash while walking down Newbury Street in Boston]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
The lineup flips over to the standard vs. RHP format, with Granderson moving up, Swisher moving down, and Berkman replacing Thames. The big news however is that Francisco Cervelli will get the start behind the plate, further fueling the Posada-can't-catch-A.J. myth. Probably not the ideal move for a team whose offense is sputtering at present.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Lance Berkman DH
Brett Gardner LF
Francisco Cervelli C

A.J. Burnett RHP

Rangers:

Tommy Hunter RHP

ALCS Game 3: Godzilla

After the two starting pitching performances the Yankees got from CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes in Games 1 & 2 in Arlington, they are lucky to be heading into tonight's game with the series all squared at one game apiece.

The Bombers will face a severe uphill climb this evening as they will be squaring off against a man with the raw power of Randy Johnson, the stamina of Old Hoss Radbourn, the heart of Jack Morris, the guile of Whitey Ford, the gusto of Pedro Martinez, the control of Greg Maddux and the soul of Satchel Page. Ladies and gentlemen, I could only be referring to the legendary, the unstoppable, the untouchable, and the immortal Cliff Lee.

There isn't a pitcher on Earth that a team would rather have starting a playoff game for them right now ahead of Lee except for maybe Roy Halladay, who oh-by-the-way gave up four earned runs en route to a Phillies' loss on Saturday night in what was supposed to be the greatest and most epic playoff pitching duel of all-fucking-time. Yes, the man who threw the second no-hitter in postseason history in the NLDS followed it up with somewhat of a dud against a pretty marginal lineup his next time out. A pitcher's duel not living up to expectations? Unheard of!

In all seriousness, the Yankees are going to need a strong effort from Andy Pettitte and a much better offensive output than either game they played in Texas. That means getting some runs on the board early instead of spotting the Rangers five and trying to pull an eighth inning underwater straight jacket escape like they are David Blaine or some shit. It was great when it worked on Friday night, but as we saw on Saturday afternoon, the stars don't always align when attempting to make up a five run deficit with your last six outs.

Of course, getting those early runs on the board is going to be the tough part. What makes Lee so tough is that he constantly throws strikes. He hasn't walked anyone in two starts this postseason and gave up only 18 free passes in 212 innings in regular season play, which, unsurprisingly, led the Major Leagues. The Yanks generally try to work the count and let pitchers put them on base, but employing that approach against guys who pepper the strike zone relentlessly will just get you behind in the count.

To get to Lee, the Yankees are going to have to do so with their bats and not their eyes. Baserunners will need to come in the form of hits. If they are to run up his pitch count, they'll need to do it primarily by fouling pitches off. Lee doesn't do much to hurt himself, so like Marcus Thames told Jack Curry, the Bombers need pounce on the mistakes that Lee does make.

All of this is easier said than done of course, but the Yankees have the most potent lineup in the game and therefore should have as good a chance as any team at knocking off the mythical beast that is Cliff Lee and regaining the edge in the series.

With a purposeful grimace and a terrible sound,
He pulls the spitting high tension wires down.
Helpless people on subway trains,
Scream for God as he looks in on them.
He picks up a bus and he throws it back down,
As he wades through the buildings toward the center of town.

Oh no, they say he's got to go—
Go, go, Godzilla..

Oh no, there goes Tokyo—

Go, go, Godzilla...

-Lineups-

Yankees: With a left hander on the mound, the Game 1 lineup makes a return.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Marcus Thames DH
Jorge Posada C
Curtis Granderson CF
Brett Gardner LF

Andy Pettitte LHP

Rangers: Francoeur has good numbers against Pettitte in 11 career ABs, so Ron Washington is giving him the start in right field. Bengie Molina and Mitch Moreland get to keep their spots are each driving in a run in Game 2.

Elvis Andrus SS
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton CF
Vlad Guerrero DH
Nelson Cruz LF
Ian Kinsler 2B
Jeff Francoeur RF
Bengie Molina C
Mitch Moreland 1B

Cliff Lee LHP

ALCS Game 1: Friday Night Lights

Being a Yankee fan this week has been a lot like being a football fan. After dispensing with the Twins by completing a three game ALDS sweep last Saturday night, we've been left with an interminable wait for tonight's ALCS Game One. In the interim, the mainstream media - both local and national - and the blogosphere have filled the football-like week long gap between games with football-like coverage. That is, there hasn't been nearly enough legitimate news to cover six news cycles, so every little tidbit of information has been overly dissected.

As the Yankees return to the field tonight after five days off, perhaps the football connections are appropriate. Fall is upon us. And when C.J. Wilson's first pitch kicks off the 2010 American League Championship Series, it'll be on a Friday night, under the lights, in Texas, where Friday night high school football is akin to religion.

Back here in the tri-state area though, baseball is the predominant sports obsession, and we'll get our fix tonight as the Yanks and Rangers play Game One of the ALCS, featuring a pitching rematch from game one of their regular season series. CC got the better of C.J. in that match-up of initialed southpaws, but Mother Nature got the best of them both, as rain stopped the game after six innings, with the Yankees taking home a 5-1 win. Sabathia wouldn't face the Rangers again during the regular season; Wilson would face the Yanks twice more and fail to record a decision in the two Texas victories.

As Moshe pointed out at TYU last night, there's some irrational pessimism plaguing many Yankee fans currently, as many are assuming that Cliff Lee's two starts and A.J. Burnett's one start essentially guarantee three Texas victories. In that line of thinking, it becomes critical that the Yankees win all four remaining games to ensure a series victory. I certainly don't subscribe to those theories, but with their ace on the mound tonight, it is important for the Yankees to get off to a good start.

(By the way, while Lee does appear to be some sort of post-season savant in the way guys like Mo and Pettitte are, it doesn't mean he's untouchable. He went through quite a rough patch following his trade to Texas. The Yankee offense is good enough to put runs on the board against anyone. And Lee is matched up against certified Big Game Pitcher Andy Pettitte. It may be an uphill battle, but it's certainly not insurmountable. As for Burnett, however unlikely, it's not totally out of the realm of possibility that he might actually pitch well. Even if he doesn't, he's matched up against Tommy Hunter, who the Yankees might easily knock around the yard. But what do I know, I'm the same guy who foolishly suggested that the Rangers should part ways with Ron Washington last spring).

So the waiting is nearly over. No more talk of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira (and Marcus Thames for that matter) returning to Texas as if they've never been back since being traded away. No more talk of the largest payroll disparity in post-season history (funny how people forget that the Yankees and the rest of MLB subsidized the bankrupt Rangers mid-season acquisitions of Bengie Molina, Lee, Jorge Cantu, Christian Guzman, and Jeff Francoeur). No more worrying about Burnett and Lee in later games. Tonight it's just about Game One, and Sabathia and Wilson under the Friday night lights of Texas.

I'll leave you with one final thought: The Minnesota Twins began life as the Washington Senators in 1901. They entered the 2010 ALDS with a nine game post-season losing streak against the Yankees. The Yankees swept them to keep the streak alive. The Texas Rangers began life as the Washington Senators in 1961. They enter the 2010 ALCS with a nine game post-season losing streak against the Yankees. I don't think that means anything, but I hope history repeats itself.

So, in honor of this Friday night in Texas, here is quite possibly the lamest song choice in Fack Youk preview history. It's the theme song from the TV show that stars Derek Jeter's special lady friend:



-Lineups-

Yankees:
It's the standard lineup vs LHP, with Marcus Thames as the DH, Swisher in the two spot and Granderson batting eighth. There was some speculation that Austin Kearns, who has hit Wilson well, might get the nod over Granderson or Gardner, both of whom have not hit Wilson well. But both lefties have been productive of late and Kearns, who was not played in nearly two weeks now, has not.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Marcus Thames DH
Jorge Posada C
Curtis Granderson CF
Brett Gardner LF

Rangers:
With C.J. Wilson on the mound for Texas, his usual catcher Matt Treanor gets the nod over Bengie Molina. With CC Sabathia on the mound for the Yanks, righty bats Jorge Cantu and Jeff Francoeur play over lefty swingers Mitch Moreland and David Murphy/Julio Borbon.

Elvis Andrus SS
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Nelson Cruz LF
Ian Kinsler 2B
Jeff Francoeur RF
Jorge Cantu 1B
Matt Treanor C

Waka Waka Walking Papers

The Fozzie Bear bad joke of a season continues in Seattle, as manager Don Wakamatsu has reportedly been handed his walking papers. We've touched on their season a few times earlier this year, and I'm still amazed that a club that generated this much buzz in the off-season has not only played this poorly, but has done so in a such an amazingly self-destructive fashion: naps in the clubhouse, fights in the dugout, falls in the bathroom, reported player mutiny, and no offense to speak of between the lines.

Oh, and just to rub salt in the wound: Justin Smoak, the prospect Jack Zduriencik preferred to Jesus Montero as the return centerpiece for Cliff Lee, was optioned to AAA a week ago after hitting just .159/.169/.270 with Seattle following the deal. Montero, meanwhile, has hit .347/.446/.622 since the start of July.

Game 86: Jesus Is Just Alright

I was away from my computer today. Did I miss anything?

No? Good.

In all seriousness, I saw the report break after I finished recapping last night's game but didn't have time to write anything about it before I left for the day. I was nowhere near a computer at any point, but kept checking on the rumors on my phone, hoping against hope that the propsed trade for Jesus Montero and (less importantly) David Adams didn't go through.

Cliff Lee is obviously an incredibly talented pitcher who would make any team in the history of the sport significantly better, but I don't like the idea of trading the best prospect in the system for him now, when the Yankees already have five capable starters and he has three months left on his contract. Yes, they could still swing a deal for Javy Vazquez, but they'll have zero leverage with whatever team might be interested in him.

There's also an element of stacking the deck at work here. The Yankees are clearly capable of winning the World Series as currently constructed. They have the best record in baseball, for fuck's sake. Do they really need to add one of the top 5 starting pitchers in the game? Does the marginal increase in their chances of winning a World Series really justify getting rid of an awesome prospect and some other potentially useful pieces? If they make the trade and don't win, the answer to that question is painfully obvious. If they pull the trigger and win a Championship, the answer could still be "no".

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I like rooting for a team that tries to develop their own players and isn't willing to mortgage their future for a slight increase of winning it for one year. Maybe Jesus Montero never pans out to be the great hitting catcher that he's projected to be but I'd rather that than the Yankees dealing him out of impatience and insecurity and watching him blossom somewhere else.

Jesus is just alright with me, Jesus is just alright, oh yeah.
Jesus is just alright with me, Jesus is just alright.

I don't care what they may know,
I don't care where they may go,
I don't care what they may know,
Jesus is just alright, oh yeah.

-Lineups-

Yankees:

Mariners:
Cliff Lee won't be on the mound tonight as originally scheduled and he won't be in either dugout, as Joel Sherman is now reporting that the M's have a deal with Texas, unless of course they back out of that one too.

Game 76: Nearly Lost You

The Yankees return home for the first time since Father's Day, opening a six game homestand with a three game set against the Seattle Mariners. The M's were the darlings of the off-season, unloading the onerous contracts of Carlos Silva and Kenji Johjima, signing spark plug Chone Figgins away from their division rivals, and making a series of lesser low risk, high reward moves. But far and away, the biggest coup for GM Jack Zduriencik was sending a package of prospects to Philly for Cliff Lee.

Everything seemingly has gone wrong for the M's since then. Franchise legend Ken Griffey Jr's continued decline and possible narcolepsy culminated in an uncomfortable retirement and a possibly fractured clubhouse. Off-season signing Ryan Garko didn't even make it to Opening Day, while fellow signee Eric Byrnes lasted a mere month before riding his bicycle off to the California keg leagues. Their offense has been abyssmal, with Figgins taking a nose dive, Milton Bradley providing plenty of problems but little pop, and virtually everyone but Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez failing to hit at an acceptable level. All of which leaves Seattle entering the series with baseball's sixth poorest record and the AL's worst offense by a long shot.

As such, Cliff Lee and his expiring contract have become the hottest commodity on the market with the trade deadline 32 days away. There has been no shortage of rumors about whether the M's will hang on to him in an attempt to turn it around, or if they'd prefer the two draft picks his Type A status will net, or where he'd land if he were to be traded. There's been a ton of contradictory information out there, but the latest seems to be that the M's are quietly prepared to make a move.

As when any big name player hits the market, the Yankees have been rumored as a potential landing spot, with reports that Seattle has scouted the Yankees system. Yet even though a vocal segment of Yankee fans have been loudly clamoring for Lee since before Spring Training even began, a deal to the Bronx is unlikely. Despite A.J. Burnett's recent struggles, the Yankee rotation has been a strength for the team this year. As we saw with Javier Vazquez earlier this season, good pitchers may struggle for stretches, but they won't struggle forever. And with pitching coach Dave Eiland returning to the club tonight, perhaps Burnett's turnaround is coming soon. There just isn't the need nor the room for another front line starter.

Even if there were, there is no recent precedent for the Yankees making such a move. Following the 2007 season, the Yankees passed on an opportunity to acquire Johan Santana, who had a full year remaining on his contract. In his refusal to make the deal, Brian Cashman made his position clear: he is reluctant to pay twice - in both prospects and contract extensions - to acquire a player. He held fast to that philosophy the following summer, when in desperate need of pitching, he refused to deal for CC Sabathia and his expiring contract, content to gamble that the big lefty would be there for the taking on the free agent market after the season. He was, and after last season's World Series, Cashman appeared to be quite shrewd for biding his time.

If that's not enough to quell those covetous of Lee as he takes the Yankee Stadium mound tonight, then the pitcher in the other half innings should be. Phil Hughes was the centerpiece of the package the Yankees would have shipped to Minnesota had they pulled the trigger on the Santana deal, and had the Yankees pursued a Sabathia trade the asking price would have begun with Hughes as well. Instead Cashman chose to hang on to his top pitching prospect. After suffering through an injury plagued 2008, the organization was rewarded with a breakout 2009 from Hughes the set up man and is now enjoying a 2010 in which Phil Hughes is one of the top starters in the American League.

It's very possible that one of the two starting pitchers tonight will throw the first pitch of the All-Star Game in Anaheim two weeks from tonight. While it's tempting to think of Cliff Lee in Yankee pinstripes, that temptation isn't enough for me to feel comfortable sacrificing potential future All-Stars in Jesus Montero or Austin Romine or Manny Banuelos or Andrew Brackman or any number of other good Yankee prospects Seattle would want in exchange for Lee. The Yankees nearly lost Hughes two and a half years ago. I'm not prepared to lose the next Hughes in exchange for three months of Cliff Lee. Cashman runs the risk of losing Lee to another club now, but as the Sabathia situation taught us two years ago, sometimes a little patience leaves you with the best possible deal.

Did you hear the distant cry
Calling me back to my sin
Like the one you knew before
Calling me back once again

I nearly, I nearly lost you there
And it's taking us somewhere
I nearly lost you there
Let's try to see now

[Song Notes: Any series against the Mariners always has me thinking of the Seattle bands of the early nineties. Rather than going with one of the name brand grunge bands, tonight we'll go with the Screaming Trees. Though lesser known than Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains, they had a few good tunes to their credit, this being one of them. Just goes to show that you don't always need to go shopping on the top shelf to find what you're looking for.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Brett Gardner's sore wrist keeps him out of the lineup tonight, but he is reportedly available for defense and pinch running duties. With a lefty on the mound Chad Huffman gets the start in left. There's a likely a roster move coming as well, as it's widely speculated that Dustin Moseley will be added to the bullpen in advance of him exercising his opt out clause today.[UPDATE 6:45 PM: No Moseley tonight, as he's still with Scranton.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Chad Huffman LF
Francisco Cervelli C

RHP Phil Hughes

Mariners:

Ichiro Suzuki RF
Chone Figgins 2B
Russell Branyan 1B
Milton Bradley DH
Jose Lopez 3B
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Jack Wilson SS
Rob Johnson C
Michael Saunders LF

LHP Cliff Lee

Game 64: I Don't Need No Doctor

When the Yankees and Phillies opened last year's World Series at Yankee Stadium, the pitching match up featured both clubs' aces, as CC Sabathia faced Cliff Lee. If you were to believe the rumors leading up to last year's trade deadline however, there was a good chance that Doc Halladay would have been the Game One pitcher for one of those two teams.

On July 7th last year, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal floated a weather balloon about the Blue Jays shopping Roy Halladay, and the rumor mill instantaneously kicked into overdrive. Almost immediately the defending champion Phillies were pegged as the most likely landing spot, with the Yankees considered another strong match. As the July 31st deadline approached the Phillies continually balked at Toronto's asking price and instead moved to Plan B, scoring Cliff Lee from the Indians for a lesser package. Meanwhile, neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox blinked in a divisional game of chicken, and Halladay woke up on August 1st as Toronto property.

Toronto G.M. J.P. Ricciardi probably overplayed his hand in hanging onto Halladay. When he was dismissed following the season, Alex Anthopoulos took over and he immediately began shopping the Blue Jays' most valuable asset. On December 16th, Anthopoulos unloaded Doc, sending him to Philadelphia in a complex and confusing four team trade that netted Toronto virtually the same package Philadelphia had refused to move five months earlier. As part of the deal, Philly shipped Lee to Seattle.

So while Doc Halladay will take Lee's place in opposing Sabathia in tonight's interleague series opener, Lee once again finds himself sitting atop the auction block. He's been outstanding after spending the first month of the season on the DL, and with Seattle sporting the Majors' third worst record and Lee being a free agent at season's end, he's assured to be traded for the third time in a year by the time the July 31st deadline rolls around.

Predictably, the Yankees are once rumored as a prime landing spot for the prize of the trade market. And it just doesn't add up to me. Last year, there was a demonstrable need for a pitcher like Roy Halladay. Joba Chamberlain was struggling and facing an innings cap. Chien-Ming Wang was ineffective and out for the season following shoulder surgery. Sergio Mitre was plain ineffective. And even at that, the Yankees found the price for a year and two months of Roy Halladay to be too steep.

The Yankees are facing no such issues right now. Their starting rotation is arguably the best in baseball. Yes Javier Vazquez struggled early on, and yes Phil Hughes will face some innings restrictions later this year (albeit less restrictive than Chamberlain's last year), but one through five I'll take my chances with the current rotation. So why would the Yankees surrender a similar package now when the need is much less and when the target in question is under contract for only three months more?

Cliff Lee is amongst the game's best pitchers and he'll make a fine prize for someone by the end of July. While numerous Yankee fans have been salivating over his impending free agency since before this season even began, there just isn't the need for him now nor the justification for paying the likely asking price. The Yankees decided they didn't need Doc at last year's deadline, and they passed on him again when he was up for bid in the off-season. I'm hopeful they'll repeat that decision when it comes to Cliff Lee at this year's deadline. The Yankees know what's ailing them, and at present, it's not starting pitching.

I don't need no doctor
'Cause I know what's ailing me
I don't need no doctor, no, no
'Cause I know what's ailing me

[Song Notes: Originally recorded by Ray Charles, performances of this song by Charles are hard to come by, as we found when I tried to use it in a post about David Robertson last year. The version here comes from Humble Pie, the band with which Peter Frampton first rose to prominence. This performance comes from 1971, shortly after Frampton left the band. It's been covered by several other artists through the years, including blog favorite Gov't Mule, who began using it as a coda to another Humble Pie tune, "30 Days in the Hole".

It was also recorded by John Scofield on That's What I Say, his 2005 tribute album to Charles. I would have used a Scofield version here, which is very true to the original, except the Sco version prominently features John Mayer and I just couldn't bring myself to embed that here].

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Alex Rodriguez is once again out of the lineup, but is available to pinch hit and figures to return tomorrow. Jorge Posada returns to DHing after catching Sunday. Sergio Mitre has been placed on the DL with an oblique injury; Boone Logan has been recalled.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada DH
Brett Gardner LF
Francisco Cervelli C
Ramiro Pena 3B

LHP CC Sabathia

Phillies:

Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Placido Polanco 3B
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth RF
Raul Ibanez LF
Ben Francisco DH
Juan Castro DH
Carlos Ruiz C

Did Philly Really Need Roy Halladay?

Yesterday one of the biggest, most complex, and - to me at least - confusing trades of the past several years was finally completed. The Phillies sent Cliff Lee, who they acquired at last summer's deadline for a package of prospects after they and Toronto couldn't agree on a package for Roy Halladay, to the Mariners for a package of prospects. Philly then sent a package of their own prospects - one nearly identical to the one they balked at less than five months ago - to Toronto for Roy Halladay and $6M. Then, Toronto took one of the minor leaguers they received from Philly, Michael Taylor, and flipped him to Oakland for Brett Wallace, who was the centerpiece of the package Oakland received for Matt Holiday just five days before Philly pulled the trigger on the first Cliff Lee deal. Got all that?

What confuses me isn't keeping all the players and parties straight. It's that I can't figure out what Philly is thinking here. Don't get me wrong, the Phillies hauled in the unquestioned best player amongst the nine on the move in this deal. But I don't get why they're willing to pay virtually the same price for Halladay now that they refused to pay in July, and to do it for a half a year less of his services.

Further, I can't figure out why they would pay that cost now, essentially decimating their farm system, to make an incremental upgrade from a top ten pitcher in Cliff Lee to a top five pitcher in Halladay, especially when they were universally lauded for making a smart deal for Lee when the Halladay price was too high five months ago. Lee is more than a year younger, has 1,060 fewer professional innings on his odometer, is half as expensive as Halladay in 2010, and they had to commit a $20M per year extension to Halladay that will carry him through his age 36 or age 37 season.

But let's back up the train a bit. In July, Toronto was apparently asking Philadelphia for J.A. Happ, Dominic Brown, and Kyle Drabek - son of former Yankee pitcher Doug Drabek. The Phils continually balked at that request, deeming Drabek untouchable and were willing to offer Carlos Carrasco instead. When a Halladay deal couldn't be reached Philly turned to Cleveland, and were able to bring in Lee for Carrasco, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, and Lou Marson. The Lee trade allowed them to keep all the proposed chips from the Halladay deal but cost them their number 2, 3, 4, and 10 prospects according to Baseball America.

Less than five months later Philly chose to make the deal for Halladay, surrendering Drabek, as well as Michael Taylor in place of Brown and Travis D'Arnaud in place of Happ. In surrending this package they give up their number 5, 6, and 7 prospects, but did get to keep their top prospect in Brown, as well as Happ, who has proven himself capable of pitching at the Major League level.

In order to afford Halladay, and to restock their beleaguered farm system, Philly then shipped the younger, less used, less expensive Lee to the Mariners for Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramirez. Aumont ranked as Seattle's third best prospect, Ramirez as their fifth. Gillies didn't rank, though he did profile as their system's top base runner and best outfield arm.

Then just for good measure, Toronto flipped Taylor to Oakland for third baseman Brett Wallace. Hypothetically, if not for the Halladay deal, Philly could have made the same trade with Oakland and received Wallace, which in turn may have prevented them from committing three years and $19M to 34 year old - and declining - Placido Polanco, who has made just 43 appearances at the hot corner over the past seven seasons. Making that hypothetical trade and saving the Polanco money might have allowed them to use that money and the money they'll be paying Halladay towards an extension for Lee.

I don't know that this was bad a series of trades for Philadelphia, but I'm unsure that they were necessary. I suppose the regime change in Toronto had something to do with it. And I suppose Seattle's apparent willingness to go all in for 2010 played a role in the decisions as well. But it boils down to Philly trading seven of their top ten prospects, and six of their top seven, to get Halladay, two of Seattle's top ten prospects, a third Seattle prospect, and $6M - or enough to cover slightly more than 75% of the 2010 salary difference between Halladay and Lee.

Now not all prospects are the same and not all systems are created equal. Perhaps the package Philly received from Seattle is comparable to what they gave up for Lee in the first place. But it doesn't appear to be. Instead, they've given up seven of their own guys - guys who they drafted and developed and know very well - to get a pitcher who's only slightly better than the one they gave had and three other prospects about whom they don't know nearly as much. It just doesn't add up to me.

Why Did Bobby Richardson Win The WS MVP in 1960?

Given the lack of newsworthy items yesterday, one of the hotter topics of conversation in the baseball blogosphere was whether or not Chase Utley should win the World Series MVP even if the Phillies lose. I linked to Dan Levy's post at the Sporting Blog last night but wanted to take a closer look at the idea today.

We're only 5 games into the Fall Classic and Utley has already smacked 5 home runs - 2 in each of the Phillies wins. He's hitting .333/.429/1.222 in front of Ryan Howard, whose OPS isn't much higher than Utley's OBP. There's little question that Utley's has had the best World Series so far. Cliff Lee singlehandedly won Game 1 but was mediocre in Game 5. A-Rod has had 6 huge, tide-turning RBIs but a meager batting line otherwise. Mariano Rivera's most important innings have yet to be pitched. Utley's showing comes with no asterisk.

As Levy points out, the only other player to win the World Series MVP from a losing team was also a second baseman - Bobby Richardson of the 1960 Yankees. In the first 11 years that the World Series MVP was awarded, Richardson was the only position player to win the award. It was an unlikely honor perfectly fit for one of the most improbable World Series ever played.

The Yankees outscored the Pirates 55-27 in that 7 game series. They out-hit them 91-60, out-homered them 10-4 and had a team ERA twice as low (3.54 to 7.11). But nonetheless, the Yanks lost on Bill Mazeroski's walkoff home run, still the only one in a Game 7 in World Series history.

Richardson's performance was pretty spectacular. He had a batting line of .367/.387/.667 which included a grand slam, 2 triples and 12 runs batted in. But he wasn't even the best offensive player on his own team. Mickey Mantle hit .400/.545/.800 with three homers and drove in 11 runs. By all accounts, Richardson was an excellent defensive second baseman, but Mantle was a legendary defender in center field and a much more recognizable figure at the time.

Richardson was in only his second year as the Yankees' primary 2B and Mantle had just made his 10th consecutive All-Star team. For regular season awards like Gold Gloves and MVPs, voters usually lean towards established stars over one year flukes (see: Zobrist, Ben), but that doesn't seem to be the case with World Series MVPs. In recent years, for example, writers have chose guys like David Eckstein (2006), Troy Glaus (2002) and Scott Brosius (1998); scrappy underdogs (slightly above average baseball players) who saved their best for the big stage.

The timing of the RBIs in the 1960 Series was a major contributing factor to the result of the voting. All but one of Richardson's 12 RBIs came in Yankees' victories. It's hard to stand out offensively when your team wins 3 games by an average of nearly 12 runs, but that's exactly what Richardson did when he drive in 6 runs in a 10-0 victory in Game 3. By comparison, Mantle blended in by knocking in five in the 16-3 domination in Game 2 and two on top of Richardson's 6 in Game 3. He added 2 more in Game 5, which the Yankees won 12-0 and two more in Game 7, which they ultimately lost.

But the reason that Richardson won the MVP over a more worthy teammate isn't the reason that it's still cited today. That's happened plenty of times (Eckstein in '06, Manny in '04, Livan Hernandez in '97, Darrell Porter in 1982, Bucky Dent '78 to name a few) It's because he won it on the losing team.

There is some precedent for giving the MVP to a player on the losing team of a postseason series. There were Mike Scott for the Astros in the '86 NLCS and Jeffrey Leonard for the Giants in '87 for example. It's happened once in the NBA Finals, once in the Super Bowl and five times in the Stanley Cup Finals. It just hasn't happened in the World Series since 1960.

It should have in 2002 when Barry Bonds had an OPS of 1.994, more than 1.100 higher than the winner, Troy Glaus. The fact that he was Barry Bonds certainly didn't help, but Glaus did drive in the tying and go-ahead runs on a double off of Rob Nen to force a Game 7.

But back to Richardson. Perhaps there is a simpler explanation as to why he is the only World Series MVP out of 53 to come from a losing team. The writers thought they were picking a guy from the winning team.

According to Mike Emeigh over at Baseball Think Factory (post #39), World Series MVP ballots had to be turned in before the beginning of the 8th inning of Game 7. Well, at the end of the 7th inning, the Yankees were leading 5-4. They had turned a 0-4 deficit into a 5-4 lead in the 5th & 6th innings and appeared to be in line for the victory.

But they didn't win. The Yanks expanded their lead to 7-4 in the top of the 8th, but gave up 5 runs to the Pirates in the bottom half. It might not have happened if a grounder that hit shortstop Tony Kubek squarely in the throat took a more predictable hop and ended up as a double play. However, the Pirates rallied to take the lead 9-7. The Yanks plated two in the 9th inning to barely stay alive, with Richardson scoring the 8th run.

It was their last breath, however, as the first batter Ralph Terry faced in the bottom of the 9th was Bill Mazeroski.

As another poster at BBTF (#43) argued, it doesn't really matter that the 1960 World Series MVP vote might (or might not) have been skewed by a procedural issue. The precedent for the writers select a an MVP from the losing team exists and it's unlikely that the people voting on this year's award know or care about that.

Does Chase Utley deserve to win the MVP at this point? Yes, in terms of value to his team, he probably does, although WPA thinks otherwise. But there are still games left to be played and there are a couple of Yankees who, if they factor directly into a victory, have a good chance to take it from Utley. But if push comes to shove, I'll give Utley the MVP in exchange for the Yankees' title. Deal?

We Didn't Think It Would Be That Easy, Did We?

Good morning, Fackers. That's not one of you on the left with your head down, is it? If it is, we'll just assume that the glass of white wine is there because your girlfriend got up to go to the bathroom. Either way, cheer up. It was a tough loss but let's just take a deep breath.

It's funny how no one picked the Yankees to sweep this series (well, except Iracane) but we still feel like they should win every time they play, isn't it?

The same thing happened against the Angels in the ALCS. We nodded along with all the predictions saying how the series could be "one for the ages" and knew the Halos were a formidable foe, but were still shocked when Vlad Guerrero hit that homer off of Andy Pettitte and when Nick Swisher popped out to end Game 5 (another miserable A.J. Burnett outing with an unlikely comeback) against Brian Fuentes. Similarly, we applauded the notion that the Fall Classic featured the two best teams in baseball and assumed it would be a great series. Unfortunately, for the series to be great, both teams have to lose some games.

Did anyone assume that we were going to take all three games in Philly? I highly doubt it, but after the Bombers took the first two, our expectations completely changed.

After the top half of the first inning, it was easy to imagine Cliff Lee finally realizing that he was human and A.J. Burnett pitching well enough to beat him. Even when Derek Jeter came to the plate in the 9th, it was hard not to picture him poking a hit through the infield and bringing the go-ahead run to the plate with no one out.

Unfortunately, both of those fantasies were squashed almost immediately by a homer off the bat of Chase Utley and a double play turned by he and Jimmy Rollins, respectively.

As for Burnett, he threw 56 pitches and exactly half of them were strikes. He faced 15 batters but retired only 6. He walked twice as many men (4) as he struck out (2). IIATMS ran down the gory details of his outing via pitch f/x. Judging by the charts, it becomes even more apparent that Burnett had all the accuracy and precision of a greased up fire hose.

There will surely be the temptation to point to the fact that he only had three days of rest as the reason his command was so poor but we've seen this plenty of times from Burnett on 4 and even 5 days of rest. In fact, we just saw it early in Game 5 in Anaheim. As much as we don't want to realize it, his dominant performance in Game 2 of the series was about as likely as his meltdown in Game 5.

But the Yankees knew what they signed up for when they inked Burnett to that $82.5M deal: Incredible stuff with so-so command. If they wanted a guy who they thought could be consistently average all the time, they would have went after Derek Lowe instead. So we take the good with the bad and move on.

Too Little, Too Late

For a fleeting moment in the first inning, it appeared that the Yankees might actually steal this one. Cliff Lee didn't look so invincible, giving up some sharp contact and struggling to locate his fastball. After Game 1, Cliff Lee said it had been a long time since he's been nervous playing baseball. I doubt he'd admit it, but he looked a little tense on the mound to begin the game.

Derek Jeter chopped one up the middle that Chase Utley just barely got to. Johnny Damon followed by dropping a single in front of Shane Victorino. And then Lee promptly ran the count to 3-0 on Mark Teixeira. Lee was taking deep breaths. He looked like he was trying to gain his composure. It appeared as though the Yanks may have gotten to him.

Teixeira took one down the middle for strike one. He fouled off a tough pitch for strike two, but then popped out to right. As A-Rod has so many times this postseason, he stepped up and delivered in a big spot, slashing a double down the right field line that rolled all the way into the corner, scoring Damon and putting the Yankees on top 1-0.

Lee proceeded to walk Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano sliced a line to left, but it was right towards Ibanez. The Yanks didn't get all they wanted out of the inning, but it was clear that this wasn't last Wednesday. Cliff Lee could be had. Unfortunately for the Yanks, their starter could be (and was) had far easier.

A.J. Burnett got ahead of Jimmy Rollins 1-2, but Rollins fouled off three straight pitches before singling to center. On the next one, Shane Victorino squared to bunt but got hit on the hand as he was pulling away. At full speed it looked like he was offering at it, but third base umpire Jeff Nelson said he wasn't trying for it. The injury seemed to nag the center fielder for the rest of the game but he wasn't removed until the 8th inning for defensive purposes.

Now, with runners on first and second and no one out, Chase Utley swung at the first pitch he saw and cranked into the seats in right field, putting the Phillies up 3-1. Just like Burnett did against the Angels, he put the Yanks in a hole without recording an out. It would be the last lead change of the game.

The Yankees brought the tying run to the plate with one out in the top of the 3rd, but not again until the 9th. A.J. Burnett lasted just 2+ innings and gave up 5 earned runs when he was in the game but left with men on 1st & 3rd and no one out. The sixth run charged to him came when David Robertson was on the mound but D-Rob did an admirable job of squirming out of the predicament with minimal damage.

Staked to a comfortable lead, Lee began to settle in. He retired 9 out of 10 batters in a stretch beginning in the top of the 2nd inning. The Yankees scratched across a run in the 5th but still trailed by 4 scores.

Robertson was replaced by Alfredo Aceves, who pitched two scoreless frames before turning the ball over to Phil Coke. The first batter he faced was Chase Utley. Utley worked the count full, forcing Coke to put one over the plate and stroked that fastball over the wall in right once again, his 5th home run of the World Series, tying the record set by Reggie Jackson in 1977. Two batters later, Raul Ibanez took Coke deep as well, expanding the Phillies' lead to 8-2. They seemed like tack-on runs at that point, but they would come in handy later.

Cliff Lee came out to start the 8th inning and gave up a single to Johnny Damon followed by a double to Mark Teixeira. Lee was left in to face A-Rod, who mashed a double off the glove of a diving Raul Ibanez in the gap in left center. The substitution for Victorino - which the FOX camera captured Charlie Manuel executing quite clumsily - loomed large as Ben Francisco took over in center for Victorino instead of in left for Ibanez, who has limited range as a defender. Clearly, the scenario might not have played out the same way, but Francisco almost certainly would have made the play that Ibanez botched.

Lee came out of the game and Chan Ho Park got out of the inning after allowing A-Rod to score on a sac fly by Robinson Cano. Lee's final line was 7 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3K, a far cry from the untouchable force he was in game one against a far weaker line up. When the top of the 8th came to a close, the margin was trimmed to three runs.

It seemed an attainable deficit - but only briefly - in the 9th inning. Ryan Madson came on to pitch and began the inning by doing his best Brad Lidge imitation. Jorge Posada led off the frame with a double, which was followed by a single by Hidkei Matsui, placing runners on first and third and no one out for the tying run, Derek Jeter.

Jeter got ahead 2-0, took a strike, and then did nearly the worst thing possible: grounded into a double play. Posada scored from third, but the tying run was no longer at the plate. Johnny Damon battled through another tough at bat, eventually singling to center but Mark Teixeira struck out swinging on three straight change ups to end the game.

The late near-rally made it tougher to stomach, but his game was pretty much over when A.J. Burnett was yanked. Six runs in 2+ innings is a surefire way to blow a game and the two homers given up by Coke didn't end up helping much either. In the end, the Yanks just couldn't overcome Burnett's implosion. Final score 8-6 in favor of the Phillies.

If the Yankees are going to win the World Series, they're going to have to do it at home.

World Series Game 5: So Close, So Far Away

For the first time in almost one month, the Yankees will play three games on three consecutive days. We've become so used to having to wait in between games that what is the standard during the regular season - the three game series - now feels a little strange.

Those last three straight games were of course the final trio of the regular season down in Tampa Bay. Since then, the Yanks have played just 13 times in 29 days. They've won 10 of those games but the end goal at the beginning of the season and especially since the end of the regular season has been to snag that 11th victory that has evaded them for nine long years.

After last night's thrilling victory, the Yankees are one win away from the winning the World Series. Twenty seven outs away from their 27th Championship. Unfortunately for them, in addition to getting those outs from the Phillies, they also have to score some runs in a game started by Cliff Lee, the most dominant force thus far in October (and into November).

Charlie Manuel made the decision to hold back Lee from a Game 4 start to make sure he was well-rested. In exchange for that extra rest, Lee has been entrusted with forcing a Game 6 back in New York. The Phillies' ace said he wasn't nervous when he started Game 1 and certainly didn't act like it, but we'll see if that same nonchalance is there when his team's season is hanging in the balance.

We all know that Lee has been all but invincible this postseason, but it's worth looking at his stats with his dominant Game 1 performance factored in: 33 IP, 2 ER, 20 H, 3 BB, 30K, 0 HR, an 0.54 ERA, a WHIP of .690 and an opponents' line of .171/.192/.214.

One thing that the Yankees have going for them is that it would be awfully tough for him to be as good as he was in Game 1. A complete game with no earned runs, six hits, no walks and 10 strikeouts is about as good as it gets against this line up. And the fact that they have seen him recently should help them anticipate some of his tendencies. On the other hand, this time the bottom of the order will consist of Brett Gardner, Jose Molina and A.J. Burnett, at least at first.

Another thing the Yankees have going for them is A.J. Burnett. The owner of the best starting pitching performance for the Yankees in this World Series, Burnett will be making a start on short rest for the first time in the postseason and only the fourth time in his career in general.

In Game 2 against the Phillies, Burnett was outstanding, throwing seven innings of one run ball while striking out 9 and allowing only 6 baserunners. Mariano Rivera threw two innings in relief that night to hold the Phillies to one run total, but it remains to be seen if Girardi will feel comfortable asking Mo for two innings should the need arise. Likely, Burnett will need to be every bit as good to beat Cliff Lee and the Phillies.

The Yanks are tantalizingly close to a World Series victory. But the toughest game they are going to face will be tonight. Burnett's last start was at home as opposed to the unfriendly confines of Citizens Bank Park. And this time he'll be hitting behind his personal catcher, Jose Molina.

Should the Series head back to New York, the Yankees will have to wait two days to start a 37 year old Andy Pettitte on short rest in Game 6. This one isn't over. Not by a long shot.

Let's go Yanks.

(This song doesn't have any lyrics, but if you listen to the main theme that Derek Trucks repeats on his guitar as a chorus of sorts, it sounds like the title of the tune)

Rob Neyer, Phillies Fans Talk About Game 4

Following through on my promise to link any time Rob Neyer talked about the Yankees on a radio appearance/podcast, I present to you this.

Some takeaways: Neyer...

• Throws a bit of cold water of the discussion for A-Rod as World Series MVP.
  
  
• Says he actually felt bad for Brad Lidge and reminds us of this.
  
  
• Thinks that Cliff Lee should have started in Game 4, but identifies Charlie Manuel's decision to send him out for the 9th inning in Game 1 as the original mistake.
  
  
• Argues that Cole Hamels' season wasn't as bad as it looked but wouldn't be opposed to starting J.A. Happ in Game 7, if necessary.

In other podcasting news, our friends at On The DL admirably continued with their show this morning despite the tough loss last night. They're Phillies fans, and they won't sell you their World Series tickets but check it out anyway.

Update 1:30: Here's some more multimedia, courtesy of NBC Sports:

World Series Game 4: Gimme Three Steps

After dropping the first game of the World Series to the untouchable Cliff Lee, the Yankees have ridden a brilliant pitching performance by A.J. Burnett and Mariano Rivera in Game 2 and a breakout offensive effort in Game 3 to a 2-1 series lead. Having lost the edge of homefield advantage by splitting the two games at Yankee Stadium, the Bombers have wrestled it back. They hold the better hand in tonight's game as well because CC Sabathia is available to make his start on short rest, but the man who handily out-dueled him in Game 1 is not.

The Phillies and Charlie Manuel have decided that instead of asking Cliff Lee to start on three days rest for the first time in his career, they will ask Joe Blanton to make only his second start since October 2nd. Lee said he was willing to give it a shot, but Manuel passed. Going to Blanton also means that Cliff Lee won't be able to start a potential Game 7 either. In fact, it's tough to find any level on which this decision makes any sense.

As Will from IIATMS points out, they Yankees match-up quite favorably with Blanton's pitch repertoire. The righty has a marginal fastball that sits in the high-eighties or low-nineties, and the Yankees are an excellent fastball-hitting team.

Blanton was slightly above league average in the regular season this year, which is valuable, but doesn't make him a particularly strong option to start a postseason game. He showed this in the NLCS against the Dodgers, when gave up 4 runs (3 ER) and walked as many as he struck out in 6 innings. The Phillies ended up winning that game, but needed a two run double by Jimmy Rollins with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning to do it. And in that Game, they were facing Randy Wolf, not CC Sabathia.

CC's start in Game 1 of the World Series didn't look very impressive. He walked as many batters (3) and gave up more home runs (2) than he did in his previous three postseason starts combined. But the end result his performance wasn't nearly as bad as those tidbits would seem to indicate.

I think most fans would cheerfully sign up for 7 innings of two run ball from Sabathia tonight given who he is opposing, but I think the Big Fella is aiming a little bit higher. Regardless, the fact that he is capable of pitching on short rest - which is easy to take for granted at this point - means that the Yankees don't have to support Chad Gaudin against a lefty heavy line up in a park known for its tendency to give up the long ball. The value of that is difficult to understate.

Cliff Lee has never pitched on short rest in his career, which surely played in Charlie Manuel's decision to go with Joe Blanton tonight. But unless Manuel has a specific reason to think that Lee isn't able to pitch effectively four days after his last start, and he's pretty damn sure of it, this seems like a mistake.

Just as we learned in Game 2, not all bad decisions are doomed to fail. Should the Phillies steal this one from the Yanks whether it be by a solid start from Joe Blanton, a poor one by CC Sabathia or a failure by the Yankees bullpen, the advantage will shift right back to Philly with the series tied a fully-rested Cliff Lee waiting for the Yanks in Game 5. As is always true in baseball, it only takes a couple of pitches, bounces or swings of the bat to change the complexion of the game.

As a team works it way through the playoffs, each game almost always becomes more important than the last. The Yanks took advantage of a favorable pitching match-up in Game 3 but that will soon be forgotten if they fail to capitalize in Game 4. But Manuel and the Phillies have given the Yankees the opportunity to get their third win in this Series which is precisely the break they were looking for.

Time to take advantage. Go Yanks.

And that's the break I was looking for.
And you could hear me screaming a mile away
As I was headed out towards the door.

Won't you give me three steps,
Gimme three steps mister,
Gimme three steps towards the door?
Gimme three steps,
Gimme three steps mister,
And you'll never see me no more.

Who's Afraid Of Pedro Martinez?

Let's be honest, a lot more of us than would be had the Yankees won last night. Even the people who aren't worried at least realize the possibility that Pedro could come up with a resplendent performance against the Yanks at a very inopportune time for them.

Pedro has always been a bit of an enigma. A hot-headed, head-hunting control pitcher. A strikeout artist who rarely walks guys. A power pitcher with great feel. A little guy with a big arm.

The Yankees know him all to well, as they saw the most of Pedro when he was at his best. Save for this last year in Montreal and his first in Flushing, Pedro's prime fell squarely during his time with the Red Sox. From 1998-2004, which also nicely encapsulates the height of the so-called Steroid Era, Pedro had an ERA of 2.52 (190 ERA+) and struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings while walking only 2, good for an otherworldly K/BB ratio of 5.45.

During that time, he threw 189 regular season innings against the Yankees - when they were also quite excellent - to a 3.20 ERA and 11-11 record. He faced them 6 times in the postseason (5 starts) and in 34.1 IP, he had a 5.01 ERA and gave up 32 hits and 13 walks while striking out 42. Like the regular season, he had as many losses as wins (3-3).

Of course, that was a pretty long time ago. Since then, Pedro moved to New York but has only pitched against the Yankees four times in four years. We could look at those 27 2/3 innings but they aren't going to tell us anymore about what he's likely to do against the Yankees tonight than his numbers against them with the Red Sox. Those four outings came against mostly different hitters and were separated by weeks, months, years, shoulder surgeries, and cockfights in the Dominican Republic.

His numbers this regular season were reasonably good but Will from IIATMS thinks that he might have gotten a little lucky to have so few line drives end up as hits and to leave so many runners on base. The biggest cause for concern is that Pedro had an excellent start against the Dodgers in the NLCS, which, according to game score was the second best postseason start of his career. He threw 7 innings of two hit, no walk ball while striking out three and needed only 87 pitches to pull it off. But as previously mentioned, that was in Southern California under perfect conditions, against an already inferior line up with a pitcher in it.

Pedro no longer has a dominant fastball, but still throws it 60% of the time. He's got a curveball and a change up that he mixes in, but neither are particularly formidable. The man from Manoguayabo survives mostly on smoke and mirrors, changing speeds and locations. That's how Cliff Lee did it last night, but Pedro will be working with far less in the way of velocity and movement.

Perhaps facing Pedro will seem easy after having to deal with Lee last night. Or maybe the Yankees will again be baffled by someone who is able to throw one of several pitches basically anywhere in the count. Time will tell.

Anyone afraid?

[Image via BLS]

Nick Swisher Futility Update

[Photo]

In some ways it's a little unfair to single one person out after and impotent offensive output like last night, but this has been a long time coming for Nick Swisher.

It's not that Swish is having bad luck at the plate, hitting balls hard but having them find defenders. He's having poor at bats, not working walks and missing hittable pitches. In his three at bats last night, he popped out softly to first, flew out softly to right and struck out looking on a change up right down the middle in the 8th inning.

In the first two at bats, Lee threw a lot of tough pitches, staying away from Swisher or keeping it below his knees. But in the third one, six out of the seven pitches he threw were directly in the middle of the strikezone (follow the link for higher resolution):

Swish was even given a generous ball on the second pitch of the at bat - the green square which was clearly high enough and right down the pike. So what did Swisher do with the five (really 6) pitches that were in his - or Major League hitter's - wheelhouse? He took three for strikes (and one for a ball) and fouled the other two off.

You don't take three four strikes in those respective locations in one at bat unless you are completely lost at the plate and are simply resorting to guessing. You don't foul the other two off unless your rhythm and timing are out of whack.

It was as if Lee & Ruiz had figured out that Swisher wasn't going to hit the ball no matter where it was and decided to just lay it right down the middle.

Yes, it's one at bat, but it's emblematic of how awful Swisher has been since Game 2 of the ALDS. He got a great pitch to hit in the last at bat of Game 5 out in Anaheim from Brain Fuentes and couldn't do anything with that either. He's hitting .114/.205/.143 this postseason and still starting every game. He's walked three times and struck out 12. He has four hits in 40 plate appearances, only one of which has gone for extra bases.

Swisher is prone to extended slumps and he picked a pretty terrible time to have one of his worst of the year. The sporadic schedule has probably negatively affected as a switch hitter since he has two swings that he needs to keep working and both have seemingly fallen into a state of disrepair.

I'm well aware that this is going to sound stupid and I'm certain Joe Girardi won't do it, but what has to happen for Brett Gardner to start in center field and Melky Cabrera in right? How bad does Swisher have to be before you give him the night off? Because I don't think he could get much worse. At least the alternative would provide a significant defensive upgrade in the outfield, something that's not nearly as hit or miss from game to game.

With Pedro starting in Game 2, Swisher is going to have to spin around and hit from the left side of the plate. He hasn't batted lefty since Game 5 in Anaheim which was a full week ago, but again, pretty much anything would be an improvement over how he looked last night. In his career, he tends to get one base a little better against lefties and hit for power more successfully against RHP. Either of those things would be fantastic.

I would love for Swisher to go out tonight and jack a homer or drive in a couple of runs and shut me and his other critics up. But there are absolutely no signs that he will. You can say he's due, but that's not what his at bats are saying.

Please Nick, do something, anything before the postseason is over. Bad Octobers make for long offseasons. And it's going to be a couple days longer if you don't get it going soon.

Put To S-Lee-p

Good morning, Fackers. Probably safe to say that last night's game was not the note we were hoping to start the World Series on. If you were nodding off in the ninth inning, don't worry, you weren't alone. For the first time this postseason the Yankees are trailing in a series which, surprisingly, doesn't feel so good. Who knew?

It's one thing to scratch across a couple of runs and lose a tightly contested game. It's quite another to get smothered to death by a guy who, for all intents and purposes, threw a complete game shutout. Sure, the Yanks scratched a run in the ninth inning but it scored on a throwing error. I don't think we have to go too far out on the limb to give him credit for the ol' CG SHO.

The most aggravating thing was that Cliff Lee made it look so damn easy. CC Sabathia didn't pitch poorly last night after his rocky first inning, finishing with 2 runs in 7 frames. He made two mistakes to Chase Utley, but otherwise kept the Phillies in check.

However, up against Lee, Sabathia looked sloppy and inefficient. Anyone would have, really. Before the 9th inning, Lee gave up only four hits (Jeter's double in the third the one for extra bases) while striking out 8 and walking none. As Matt noted earlier, only three batters worked a three ball count against him all night. Sabathia had three in the first inning.

Lee was under control at all times last night, not so much pounding the strike zone as chipping away at the perimeter. It's an overused pitching cliche but I'm not sure there's a better way to describe Lee's performance last night than "sharp". He was locating with ease, snapping off filthy breaking balls and keeping batters off balance with a change up that sat about 11-12-13 MPH below his fastball.

Even with his historically great performance on the mound and the 10 strikeouts and no walks, the two lasting images from last night are going to be plays that he made in the field. In the 7th inning with Derek Jeter standing on first base, he caught a soft pop up from Johnny Damon with a limp wrist and didn't even look it into his glove, as if it had been thrown back to him by the catcher.

Whether that was contrived or not, at that moment, he looked like the most relaxed person in the stadium. I doubt it was designed to look to nonchalant, but it almost came across as smugly showing the Yankees up. Like he was their older brother and decided not to take it easy on them for once. "(Yawn) Are you guys going to start trying anytime soon?" Fine, act like it's a cakewalk, but remember that this is baseball and what looks easy today might look impossible the next time around.

That delicate little fluffy pop up by Damon was the culmination of 7 pitch at bat in which Johnny got ahead 2-0 but never got to that elusive three ball count. He fouled off three tough pitches and even when he was ahead in the count, it looked like he was behind. The Yankees were one swing away from tying the game but the way Lee was dealing, it felt like it would have had to been thrown by someone else.

The other memorable play came when Robinson Cano led off the 8th inning. The Phillies had just tacked on two more runs and led 4-0. Cano smoked the first pitch he saw right back up the middle but it hovered right a belt level for Lee, who nabbed it behind his back.

At that point, I think a lot of people realized it just wasn't the Yankees' night. A little higher or lower and Lee doesn't make that play. A little left or right and that's probably a base hit. But it bounced right into his glove.

With Lee's pitch count where it was, the Yankees were going to have to score at least 4 runs before making 5 outs against a guy that had shut them down all game. It wasn't happening. When a pitcher is throwing the ball like Lee was last night and having plays like that fall into place, there's not much you can do.

Tip your caps and all that. But Phillie fans, this is freaking creepy. And unless you are his mother, please don't refer to him my his full first, middle and last name. The dude's been on your team for like three months. Little weird. Just saying.

At least today isn't an off day.