World Series Game 4: Gimme Three Steps

After dropping the first game of the World Series to the untouchable Cliff Lee, the Yankees have ridden a brilliant pitching performance by A.J. Burnett and Mariano Rivera in Game 2 and a breakout offensive effort in Game 3 to a 2-1 series lead. Having lost the edge of homefield advantage by splitting the two games at Yankee Stadium, the Bombers have wrestled it back. They hold the better hand in tonight's game as well because CC Sabathia is available to make his start on short rest, but the man who handily out-dueled him in Game 1 is not.

The Phillies and Charlie Manuel have decided that instead of asking Cliff Lee to start on three days rest for the first time in his career, they will ask Joe Blanton to make only his second start since October 2nd. Lee said he was willing to give it a shot, but Manuel passed. Going to Blanton also means that Cliff Lee won't be able to start a potential Game 7 either. In fact, it's tough to find any level on which this decision makes any sense.

As Will from IIATMS points out, they Yankees match-up quite favorably with Blanton's pitch repertoire. The righty has a marginal fastball that sits in the high-eighties or low-nineties, and the Yankees are an excellent fastball-hitting team.

Blanton was slightly above league average in the regular season this year, which is valuable, but doesn't make him a particularly strong option to start a postseason game. He showed this in the NLCS against the Dodgers, when gave up 4 runs (3 ER) and walked as many as he struck out in 6 innings. The Phillies ended up winning that game, but needed a two run double by Jimmy Rollins with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning to do it. And in that Game, they were facing Randy Wolf, not CC Sabathia.

CC's start in Game 1 of the World Series didn't look very impressive. He walked as many batters (3) and gave up more home runs (2) than he did in his previous three postseason starts combined. But the end result his performance wasn't nearly as bad as those tidbits would seem to indicate.

I think most fans would cheerfully sign up for 7 innings of two run ball from Sabathia tonight given who he is opposing, but I think the Big Fella is aiming a little bit higher. Regardless, the fact that he is capable of pitching on short rest - which is easy to take for granted at this point - means that the Yankees don't have to support Chad Gaudin against a lefty heavy line up in a park known for its tendency to give up the long ball. The value of that is difficult to understate.

Cliff Lee has never pitched on short rest in his career, which surely played in Charlie Manuel's decision to go with Joe Blanton tonight. But unless Manuel has a specific reason to think that Lee isn't able to pitch effectively four days after his last start, and he's pretty damn sure of it, this seems like a mistake.

Just as we learned in Game 2, not all bad decisions are doomed to fail. Should the Phillies steal this one from the Yanks whether it be by a solid start from Joe Blanton, a poor one by CC Sabathia or a failure by the Yankees bullpen, the advantage will shift right back to Philly with the series tied a fully-rested Cliff Lee waiting for the Yanks in Game 5. As is always true in baseball, it only takes a couple of pitches, bounces or swings of the bat to change the complexion of the game.

As a team works it way through the playoffs, each game almost always becomes more important than the last. The Yanks took advantage of a favorable pitching match-up in Game 3 but that will soon be forgotten if they fail to capitalize in Game 4. But Manuel and the Phillies have given the Yankees the opportunity to get their third win in this Series which is precisely the break they were looking for.

Time to take advantage. Go Yanks.

And that's the break I was looking for.
And you could hear me screaming a mile away
As I was headed out towards the door.

Won't you give me three steps,
Gimme three steps mister,
Gimme three steps towards the door?
Gimme three steps,
Gimme three steps mister,
And you'll never see me no more.

World Series Roster Update

Yesterday, the Yankees announced their World Series roster. Eric Hinske and blog favorite Brian Bruney have been added at the expense of Freddy Guzman and Francisco Cervelli.

The first swap was obvious. With the need for a pinch hitter in the National League park, Hinske became necessary and Guzman, functioning solely as a pinch runner, was the most expendable part. With Hideki Matsui coming off the bench in Philly as well, Hinkse will be the second best pinch hitting option, but still should see some action.

The absence of Guzman probably means that Brett Gardner won't be getting his first postseason start this series as Girardi will most likely keep him on the bench as a pinch running option. Jerry Hairston Jr. is a viable candidate for that role but is hardly a stolen base threat (only 7 for 11 this year) and therefore not much of a weapon.

Given the elimination of Cervelli, we can almost certainly infer that Jorge Posada will be catching A.J. Burnett in Game 2 (and presumably again if necessary), thus making having a third catcher on the roster superfluous. I was in favor of having Molina catch Burnett at the outset of the postseason, but it seems like the right move to let Posada catch him now. Burnett blew up with Molina behind the dish in Game 5 of the ALCS and worked well with Posada after he entered the game as a pinch hitter.

Bruney pitched in the instructional league down in Tampa during the ALDS but hasn't faced Major League hitting since October 2nd. The only frightening aspect of this move is that Girardi might try to use him for a fraction of an inning when it counts instead of relegating him strictly to mop-up duty. With Chad Gaudin unavailable for Games 1 & 2 after throwing an extended bullpen session yesterday, it seems likely that Bruney would be the last man out of the 'pen.

The Phillies made a move and an announcement of their own. Consummate gentleman and class act Brett Myers has been added to the roster - after recovering from a strained lat muscle - at the expense of utility man and former Yankee Miguel Cairo - a move Joe Torre is certainly frowning upon from afar for a couple of reasons. Charlie Manuel also declared that Pedro Martinez will be starting Game 2 at Yankee Stadium.

Pedro was chosen over Cole Hamels, who had an average season at best and has been shaky in 3 postseason starts (14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA). Pedro has pitched once since September 30th, was brilliant against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLCS, allowing two hits and no walks in 7 innings. But that was in Southern California in a pitcher's park against a National League line-up.

It will make for a quite the interesting dynamic. I wouldn't be surprised if Pedro was excellent or if he got bounced in the third inning. One way or another the familiar refrain offered by the Yankee Stadium faithful will be chanted ad nauseum when he's on the mound. Should be good theater either way.

Red Light, Green Light

[Photo]

At about the one third mark of this season, I became very vocal here with my belief that Brett Gardner deserved the lion's share of the playing time as the Yankees' centerfielder. His broken thumb in late July pretty much derailed any chance of that becoming a reality.

There was never any doubt that Melky Cabrera would be the starting centerfielder in the post-season, and buoyed by the strength of his ALCS Game Four, Cabrera's small sample size post-season numbers have been good. While some have suggested that Gardner start in place of the slumping Nick Swisher, that shouldn't happen, and I highly doubt it will.

Outside of it flying in the face of conventional wisdom, Joe Girardi seems to be infatuated with the idea of having Brett Gardner available as a pinch running option off the bench. While Hideki Matsui, and to a lesser extent Jorge Posada, make that a desirable option to have, I think the underlying thought process is faulty in something of the same way that the Joba to the bullpen argument is: it doesn't matter how good your late game options are if your early game options don't put you in a place to leverage them. That is, Gardner's speed shouldn't count against him. Don't hold him back because he's fast; if he belongs in the starting line up put him there.

That aside, something unexpected has happened in Gardner's last two pinch running appearances. After being successful in 26 of 31 attempts this year and 39 of 45 in his brief MLB career, Gardner has been caught stealing as a pinch runner in both of the last two games.

At the risk of blowing a small sampling out of proportion, I'm curious about this. Generally speedsters like Gardner have permanent green lights; they're free to go whenever they want so long as they're not given an explicit red light. I would assume that Gardner's operating under those conditions, but the situations in which he's decided to run in the last two games have made me wonder.

In Game Three, Gardner pinch ran for Hideki Matsui in the eighth. He was on first base, with no one out, trailing by a run. After a throw to first, on a 0-1 pitch, Gardner took off for second. Given the situation it was a risky move to begin with, given the count, it was even riskier. The Angels pitched out, Gardner was gunned down at second, and the potential tying run went from on base to the batters box. The Yankees lost 14.3% of win probability in the process, the most costly Yankee out of the game.

In Game Four, Gardner entered again in the eight, again at first, again with no one out. This time at least, the Yankees were up 5-1. After two throws to first, Gardner took off on a 2-0 pitch and got caught again. At least there was no risk of a pitch out that time. Because of the score, this time it only cost the Yankees 1.1% of win probability.

I'm wondering what exactly the thought process is here. Is Gardner perma-greenlighted and going on his own? Is he under express orders to go? As a pinch runner, does he feel like he has to run? In a situation like Game Three's, why is he not given a explicit red light?

I'm not anti-stolen base. In the right situation it is a calculated risk well worth taking. Gardner's SB in the tenth inning of Game Two of the ALDS was a good one. It put him in scoring position as the potential winning run, and his speed later forced an errant pick off throw that put him on third base with just one out. But I'm dubious of the two latest attempts, and not just because of the negative outcomes. I wonder if Gardner's becoming entrenched in his role as pinch runner/defensive replacement and trying to make something happen in each of his limited opportunities.

I'll Show YOU Overmanaging!

During the 7th inning last night, after Chad Gaudin had been pulled and the Yankees' lead contracted to one run, Joe Girardi and Joe Maddon engaged in a managerial pissing contest of epic proportions. I detailed it in last night's recap, but as usual, left the editorializing for another post.

Both Matt and I have been critical of Joe Girardi's bullpen tinkering for a variety of reasons, but not because they haven't been successful. He's been pulling the strings and things have worked out well for him this year. That's terrific and all, but manager can deploy too many resources at once. It's called overmanaging, and we've discussed this before.

Let's roll the tape:

Once Girardi called on Marte with men on first and second and no one out, Maddon pinch hit for journeyman first baseman Chris Richard with righty Gabe Kapler. Fair enough. It would only have been Richards' fourth plate appearance of the year and Kapler is an upgrade at the plate. Those two moves essentially made themselves.

Due up next for the Rays were catcher Greg Zaun and lefty outfielder Gabe Gross, with the obvious pinch hitting candidates being two switch hitters, catcher Dioner Navarro and outfielder Willy Aybar.

Joe Girardi knew this, and had surely noticed that Marte had given just one baserunner (via a walk) in his 4 1/3 IP since being recalled from the DL. On three recent occasions Marte has pitched a scoreless inning or more, so despite the fact that Girardi said he thought of him as a LOOGY upon recall, he has undeniably been more than that. But rather than test Marte in a game that had the atmosphere and set up but not the import of a postseason one, he brought in Brian Bruney to face one of two guys who were just going to spin around and bat left handed against him anyway.

Even more questionable, Joe Maddon was the fact that called on Dioner Navarro who has a 53 OPS+ in 363 plate appearances this year, to hit for Zaun who was at 95 in 235. Navarro was slugging .266 against righties this year. Bruney got Navarro out, but was it really worth burning Damaso Marte after just one out to get Bruney face a guy who has been far, far, FAR below replacement level as a hitter this year?

Due up next was Gabe Gross, who about as strict of a platoon player as you will see in the majors today with about 9 times as many plate appearances against RHP than LHP. Girardi saw the opportunity to force Maddon's hand, and he did. Phil Coke came on, and Maddon went with Willy Aybar, who spun around to bat from his slightly weaker side, the right. Coke walked Aybar to load the bases but then got lefty Akanori Iwamura to ground out to end the inning.

All is well that ends well, right? Well, not really.

First of all, with two switch-hitting players on the bench, does it really make sense for Girardi to match up with them? Neither Navarro nor Aybar have significant platoon splits and neither are great hitters to begin with. If Girardi had just left Marte in, Maddon would have had to make the same moves.

Secondly, by burning through three pitchers who are all capable of throwing a scoreless inning or more each, Girardi fired three bullets and got only 3 outs. The security blanket of Hughes and Rivera were there, but as we saw last night, it's not fool proof. Thanks to Nick Swisher, the Yanks didn't have to go to extra innings, but if they did, their 5 of their best available relief pitchers would have already been used, as Jason pointed out in the comments, leaving a rather unappealing slew of possibilities for the later innings, when the game theoretically becomes increasingly important.

One of the reasons that this excessive matching up doesn't make that much sense to me is that it happens most often in close, low scoring games, a.k.a. the ones that are most likely to go into extra innings. Yes this was a September game with the safety net of expanded rosters, but every guy Girardi used projects to be on the 25 man for the playoffs, meaning that he wasn't treating it like one.

Ripping through a total of four pitchers and three pinch hitters in one inning is a luxury only afforded to managers one month out of the season and they are more than willing to use that option to prove to everyone how smart they are. Not only does it create even more commercial breaks and annoy the shit out of me personally, it's not really great strategy, even for games in September.

If someone could prove to me that bringing in three pitchers to face one batter each is somehow better than leaving in one pitcher (who is better than the other two) I would be open to that idea. However, given the fact that excessive pitching changes waste capable relievers after only a fraction the service they are capable of performing, leaving the bullpen exposed if the game goes into extras, I question it every time it happens.

Last night's game had a playoff feel to it and if that's what Girardi thinks is going to be proper strategy when the rosters contract and the games start to really matter, color me a little concerned. The fact that this hasn't backfired on Girardi yet is scary in that it very well might in October.

Another Perk Of Home Field Advantage

One of the ancillary benefits of having the best record in either league is that the team gets to select which of the two schedules it plays its ALDS on. Both of the options have their final 4 games scheduled for October 9th, 11th, 12th & 14th, but the ALDS "A" schedule begins on October 7th, while "B" starts on the 8th. The upshot is that "A" allows for the participants to use only 3 starting pitchers on regular rest if they so choose.

The implications for the Yankees are pretty obvious. Their top three starters are pretty clear-cut: CC Sabathia and then, in whatever order, Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett. It's the guy who slots in for the fourth game that makes the decision a little more complicated.

Steve from the Yankee Universe says it depends on how Joba Chamberlain pitches down the stretch and who the Yankees are playing (almost certainly the Tigers). Since both teams will be operating on the same schedule, if the Yankees have a bigger advantage over the Tigers when comparing their top 4 starters as opposed to their top 3, Steve thinks that would be the optimal choice.

David Pinto of Baseball Musings suggests that the Yankees should opt for the extra day of rest, and as a result the 3 man rotation, almost always, unless the opposition has a very poor fourth starter.

The Tigers top four are Edwin Jackson (147 ERA+), Justin Verlander (139), Jarrod Washburn (124) and Rick Porcello (107). Although Washburn has been terrible since joining the Tigers (6.81 ERA in 6 starts), I'm guessing his postseason experience would bump him ahead of the rookie Porcello. Verlander will probably start game one as well, but that's beside the point.

Either way, they match up favorably against the Yankees' quartet, Sabathia (131), Pettitte (109), Burnett (107) and Joba (101).

Minor detail, however: the Tigers staff is going to be facing the best offense in all of baseball: 1st in runs scored, 1st in OBP and in 1st in SLG. Conversely, the Tigers offense is 10th, 10th and 9th in those categories, respectively. I'm not sure there is a scientific way to account for that, but it would seem to tip that equation on it's head completely.

Given the choice, I would probably opt for the early start and the extra day of rest. Given that the Yankees will be able to align their rotation however they choose when the season closes down, they might as well bank that extra day of rest. Regardless of how Joba pitches throughout September, he will still be a major question mark as a starting pitcher in the postseason.

And of course, since one team is going to be down 2-1 if Game 4 does indeed occur, they could just choose to throw their ace anyway.

Swish Steps Up, Yanks Walk Off

Even though both the Yankees and the Rays have increasingly less to play for with each passing regular season game, it wasn't apparent last night. The game had all the trimmings of a postseason match-up, save for the fact that Chad Gaudin was starting.

Like he did in his previous two starts for the Yankees, Gaudin fizzled out at a certain point. Unlike his previous two, he went deep into the game, holding the Rays scoreless up until Evan Longoria came to the plate in the top of the seventh inning. Longoria ripped an 0-2, lined shot over the wall in left field. Gaudin then gave up a single to Ben Zobrist and a walk to Pat Burrell prompting Joe Girardi to go to the bullpen.

He first called on Damaso Marte causing Joe Maddon to pinch hit for lefty-hitting first baseman Chris Richard with Gabe Kapler. Marte retired Kapler on a fly ball to right on only two pitches, but then with switch hitting Gregg Zaun due up, Maddon summoned switch-hitting Dioner Navarro, who spun around to bat left handed. Girardi countered by signaling for the righty Brian Bruney who got Navarro to ground into a force out at third. The managerial meddling didn't stop there as Girardi tapped his left arm for Phil Coke and Maddon deployed the switch-hitter Willy Aybar. Coke walked Aybar but got Akanori Iwamura to ground out to short, ending the inning.

Ironically, it was the most obvious move to the bullpen of the night that backfired on Joe Girardi. Phil Hughes was given the ball to start the 8th inning and was taken deep on his very first pitch to Jason Bartlett, a no-doubt shot to left field. It was Hughes' first blown lead as a relief pitcher. He gave up a single to the next batter but induced a flyball and a double play grounder to get out of the inning.

Even though lefty sidearmer Randy Choate has massive platoon splits, he was left in to face Derek Jeter in the bottom half of the inning. Jeter ripped one to right, but Gabe Kapler was standing right where it was headed. Johnny Damon then dragged a surprise bunt towards first base that got past Choate and looked to be a single until Choate flipped it to first with his glove, beating Damon by a half of a step.

The score remained knotted at 2 when Mariano Rivera took the hill for the top of the 9th. Mo knocked the Rays down 1-2-3, setting the stage for the Yankees 13th walk off win of the year.

Before his massive blast off of David Price in the second inning, Nick Swisher hadn't hit a home run at Yankee Stadium since June 8th. He had hit only three there all season. He had hit only one other walk off jack in his career. But he lifted his second round-tripper of the night just barely over the right field wall, and continued along with the obligatory jog around the bases, helmet toss and pie in the face. Predicatably giddy, Swish had a giant smile on his face right on through the post game interviews on TV.

Maybe it was the spunky newcomer conquering the demons that had sapped his power at home all year. More likely though, it was a statistical correction that Swisher's 25th and 26th homers on the year were lofted into the New York City night. Either way, it was just another game that the Yankees could have easily lost but seemed destined to win.

Who Doesn't Like Cash?

It has since been overshadowed by CC Sabathia's stellar performance, A-Rod's big night and the 9th inning explosion, Eric Hinske's solo home run last night was pretty big at the time. It tied the game at 1-1, where the score remained until the top of the seventh inning.

It's nothing new for Hinske, as it was his 7th home run in only 65 at bats as a Yankee. Half of his hits in Pinstripes have left the yard, which is pretty much what you would hope for out of a lefty whose primary duty after being acquired from the Pirates was to provide some pop off the bench.

The trade for Hinske along with the one for Jerry Hairston, Jr. (who replaced him defensively last night) from the Reds have both worked out about as well as Bran Cashman and others vested in the Yankees' success could have hoped. We liked both of the moves at the times they were made, but Matt and I would both admit that they have exceed our expectations as well. Although Hairston has made two errors recently, he's played 5 defensive positions serviceably (2B, 3B & all 3 OFs) while hitting .273/.377/.477 at the plate, including a couple of homers of his own.

While many fans were disappointed that Cashman didn't swing a deadline deal for a starter such as Jarrod Washburn or less realistically, Roy Halladay, the Yanks have gone 23-7 since July 31st. During that span, Halladay has a 4.71 ERA while giving up 8 homers in 6 starts and Washburn has been even worse, racking up a 6.81 ERA and allowing 11 HRs.

Clearly, things could have shaken out differently had players ended up in different places, but nothing has happened so far to make Cash & Co. regret any decisions they made or didn't make at the deadline. Even Chad Gaudin, who came after July 31st, has been solid, posting a 3.21 ERA over 14 innings and filling the much needed role of another long man out of the pen. Don't forget Nick Swisher either, who Cash picked up for Wilson Betemit and some marginal prospects from the White Sox, who undervalued his contributions due to his frosty relationship with Ozzie Guillen.

As Matt predicted on August 1, after Sergio Mitre got shelled in Chicago and many were lambasting Cashman for not doing more to improve the team, all we needed was a little patience. Take a look at where the Yanks find themselves now. Would anyone go back in time and do anything different at this point? I highly doubt it.

Let's take a second and give Brian Cashman the credit he richly deserves but rarely receives. As a GM (or a manager, or the President for that matter) it's always easier to do something than to do nothing. And further, in a way it's safer to do the bigger, riskier, more obvious thing that falls in line with public opinion, because if it fails, people can say "Well, at least he did all he could!".

Cashman doesn't fall to into this trap. He had faith in the roster as it was currently constructed, due in part to the signings he made during the offseason and decided that it was unnecessary to give up significant pieces of the farm system.

With all due respect to George Steinbrenner, he made this all but impossible when he was at the wheel of the franchise. I don't think that it's a coincidence that since he's faded from power, the Yanks have become a more soundly run franchise and thanks in part to Hal, but mostly to Brian Cashman.

Here's to you, Cash.

Are Throws To First A Waste Of Time?

You know the scene. The Yankees are on the road, it's late in the game and the opposing team puts a speedster on base. The pitcher throws over to first once, the runner retreats safely. He throws over again and it's not even close this time. The crowd starts to boo. And a third time. The boos get louder.

Even as a fan of the team throwing to first, I sometimes get annoyed with the process. It breaks up the flow of the game, it seemingly never works, and yet teams continually do it. Is it actually effective as a tactic or is it another practice in baseball that's done because it's always been done?

As of late June (can't find more recent stats), both Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett were near the top of the league in pick-off attempts. Burnett had a game this year against the Angels in which he threw to first base 24 times in 7 innings. They do get results though, as Pettitte is tied for the AL lead with 8 pickoffs this year while Burnett is not too far behind with 5. However, Burnett has more pickoffs where the runner was tagged out diving back to first base (4) than Pettite (3), probably because runners are more wary of Andy's move. Five of Pettitte's PO's were of the variety that CC Sabathia recorded against Jacoby Ellsbury last Sunday Night in which the runner was going on motion and got caught stealing.

We all know that pickoffs are pretty rare. Pettitte has allowed 178 runners to reach first base this year via single, walk or HBP and has nabbed less than 5% of them, or fewer than one every 3 starts. Much of the time the throws to the base are called from the bench and it's not especially close. You essentially never see a runner picked off the second time the pitches tosses over to first base.

But yet it's still done. Does it have a purpose even if they aren't catching the runners getting too greedy with their lead very often?

John Dewan says yes (h/t BBTF). When looking at data from 2002-2009, they've found that a runner's stolen base percentage actually does decrease when one throw to first base has been made. It goes down slightly with each throw after that, but not significantly. Check out his post for the numbers.

Runners steal at a 65% clip against Pettitte and Burnett which means the league is ineffective by sabermetric standards at swiping with them on the mound. Whether we like it or not, all those throws to to first base do serve a purpose (besides just slowing down the game).

What About Next Year?

Mike from River Ave. Blues took a look at the under-utilization of Phil Hughes in the past month or so. Mike issue is with the fact that he hasn't been called on as of late, but I would like to add that the decision not to pitch him echoes into next season as well.

Hughes has pitched 70 1/3 innings for far this year and has been nothing short of excellent since being transitioned from a starter to a reliever. He's thrown about 35 innings in each role so far, but had an ERA of 5.45 as a starter as opposed to 1.26 out of the bullpen. He has great strikeout rates in both, but whiffs almost 3 1/2 more batters per nine when he's used in relief.

It would seem that the transition to high leverage reliever was just what the doctor ordered, but the downside is that Hughes doesn't figure to collect much more than 100 innings this year (if that), including the postseason. So when next year rolls around, he's going to be in almost the exact same spot innings-wise that Joba Chamberlain was in this year. Roughly 100 IP with a cap of 150-160 as a member of the starting rotation.

This reality makes the fact that Girardi has only used Hughes for 8 innings this month all the more puzzling. It's one of the reasons we were hesitant to jump on board the "Hughes to the bullpen" train to begin with. Were he in Scranton or in the rotation, this probably would be a non-issue.

The Yankees will probably tell you they have a plan for Hughes, but I don't think using him for 8 or 10 innings over an entire month despite a clean bill of health was part of that grand scheme. Granted, the Yankees have been involved in a lot of lopsided games both for and against them, so there weren't a lot of obvious occasions for Hughes to be called upon.

However, as manager Joe Girardi should be cognizant of the amount of innings the Phranchise has(n't) thrown and what that is going to mean if he and Brian Cashman truly want to make him a starting pitcher next season. If this means putting him in for an inning or two when the game is out of hand, then so be it. The kid should be on the hill one way or another.

Factual Inaccuracy Of The Day

At the risk of BaDH, here's one loose end from last night's infamous bunt that I didn't tie up earlier. From the Post (emphasis mine):

"We're trying to get the tying run to third base," Girardi said. "Nick's been a good bunter for us all year and unfortunately he popped it up tonight."

Really, Joe? Has he? Because he's hardly been a bunter at all during the rest of his career.

Including last night's botched attempt, Swisher has been asked to sacrifice bunt 4 times 471 plate appearances this year. In the other 2512 PAs in his career, he has completed 4 successfully. For some odd reason Joe Girardi has asked Swish to bunt at over 5 times the frequency of his previous managers. Perhaps his Ken Macha, Bob Geren and Ozzie Guillen were a little more realistic about his ability to get one down.

The only players who have been asked to bunt as much or more than Swisher this season are Francisco Cervelli, Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner, all of who have an OPS of roughly 100 points lower or more than Swish.

Using his averages from this year (which are very close to his career norms), there was a roughly 20-25% chance he could have won or tied the game with a hit and a 37% chance he could have at least moved the runner to third without using an out. Sure, there was a strong chance he left the Yanks in the same situation they found themselves in after he popped it up to Michael Young, but at least there was some upside to letting him swing. He might have advanced the runners anyway. If Jose Molina or Frankie Cervelli or Brett Gardner was up, it would have been a close decision. But not with a guy with 21 HRs and a .368 OBP is at the plate.

Joe Girardi just wanted to exert his influence and try to alter the outcome of the game like he so often does without a very good reason. Unfortunately for the team and it's fans, it backfired once again.

A Letter To Joe Girardi

Dear Mr. Girardi,

Last night was very nearly incredibly awesome. A 5 run comeback in the 9th inning would have been a monumental achievement and the best comeback victory in a season with 40 of them already. It would have returned the favor to the Rangers, who got quite lucky to string together a 5 run rally without making an out themselves in the 4th inning (which it might surprise you to learn, didn't include a bunt attempt). But last night was not awesome. It was incredibly frustrating.

You see, Joe, last night my roommates and I decided to take the plunge and buy a new TV. Big Willie Style's 32" had been holding down the mantle in the interim and it was time to get serious about our new place.

After a long day, we drove to Boscov's at around 8:30 and then to Sears, intent on acquiring one before the stores closed at 9:30. We very nearly bought this 42" LG for $700, but they didn't have it in stock. After a serious amount of deliberating, we decided to go with this 46" Samsung which was priced at $1200 on the shelf but after the 10% discount I got for opening a Sears card (which I'm literally never going to use after this purchase) it was $1166 after taxes. No interest or payments for 6 months to boot. Not bad. Am I right, Joe? Or perhaps you might have gone with the 24 months of free financing, since that's what "the book" on buying TVs says.

After we got the TV loaded in the van, it was about 9:50 and we turned on the game just in time to John and Suzyn called Michael Young's two run homer in the 7th inning. Great. On the way home we listened to the radio duo swoon over Neftali Feliz and compare him to Joba as he touched 100 on the radar gun (101 according to pitch f/x). We arrived back at the apartment and set up the new toy just in time for the top of the ninth.

We cracked a few Dogfish Head Immort Ales to celebrate and watched as Damaso Marte work a pretty solid inning in amazing 1080i resolution. Predictably, we marveled at the new awesomeness of our new TV, which fit on top of our mantle like the stand had been custom made for it.

Then the 9th inning came, Joe. Remember it? After the Yankees sent six straight runners to the plate without making an out, you decided to give one away by asking a guy who is terrible a bunting to do something, which even if he was successful at, would have hurt the team's chances at winning. The run expectation actually declines when you go from men on first and second with no outs to runners on second and with one down. Take a look.

Furthermore, Frank Francisco had already walked A-Rod and thrown fewer than half of his pitches for strikes. You took away Nick Swisher's excellent ability to work a walk by having him bunt in that spot. Did you see Francisco's first pitch? It was at fucking eye level. How do not make that guy throw strikes?

You asked a guy to bunt who can't bunt to set the table for a guy who is worse than 50% at getting the runner in from third with less than 2 outs. It's a stupid move in principle and it was even dumber under these circumstances.

And when it failed completely, you stormed around in the dugout like a fucking 4 year old because your fucking boneheaded decision didn't work out.

In all fairness, I stormed around my apartment at the same time, but I was acting like at least an 8 year old.

So thanks, Joe. It could have been one of the best TV Christenings in the history of mankind. But as soon as you started meddling and overmanaging, the whole thing went to shit.

Yes, right THERE. In the highest possible leverage situation.

I'm not blaming Melky Cabrera for lining into a double play, Joe. The entire situation would have been different if you let Nick Swisher take a full swing at the ball instead of conceding a precious out to a guy who could hardly throw a strike.

This is your fault.

Fuck you,

Fack Youk

Sawx Almost Stole Offseason Thunder

Via River Ave. Blues, both Jon Heyman and Tom Verducci are reporting that the Red Sox opened discussions with the Marlins in an attempt to re-acquire Hanley Ramirez. Florida apparently brought up Jacoby Elsbury and Clay Bucholz, but it is unclear where the negotiations hit a standstill. Joesph P. at RAB says:

I know some of you are thinking it, and I’m sure someone has said it in the comments section at MLBTR, but it’s not what you think. This is not Boston retaliating. Signing Carl Pavano and trading for Randy Johnson? Retaliation for 2004. Bidding 27 freaking million dollars on Kei Igawa? Retaliation for Daisuke Matsuzaka (or at least one could make the argument). Attempting a trade for Hanley Ramirez? Not retaliation for the Yankees nabbing Teixeira.

Well said. I think it was retaliation in timing only. I would think that the Teixeira signing might have provided some inspiration, but retaliation is typically foolish and impulsive. Like much of what the Red Sox have done recently, like hiring Bill James, this was a brilliant, calculated maneuver, which would have stolen a whole bunch of off-season thunder from the Yanks. If the Marlins' return was Bucholz, Ellsbury and some lower prospects, it looks initially like a good deal from both sides, just like the deal that sent Ramirez to Miami originally. It would have made me reevaluate my inclination that the Yankees are favorites to take the AL East crown.

The Sox have a loaded farm system and maybe I'm underrating the two principle components of the trade, but it seems like they have a great deal of talent at the AAA level and at a certain point, you can have too many prospects for too few major league spots. It's a nice problem to have, and hopefully the Yanks are headed in that direction as well.

I don't have an encyclopedic knowledge of baseball history, and its kinda late, so I think I'm just going to pose a question instead of researching it. Has a similar trade (where teams go back and forth with a player of Ramirez's magnitude) ever happened? The guy gets slept on because he plays in Florida, but look at these numbers for a 24 year old shortstop, playing in a pitchers ballpark (.308/.379/.527 career line). And the Sawx already have Jed Lowrie at short and were thinking about Hanley to CF. Moving a SS to CF, what a novel idea...