Game 85 Recap

[Data via FG]

Highlights:

• In the wake of his victory in the Final Vote and resulting selection to the All-Star team, Nick Swisher had another big night, going 4-4 (two doubles) and a walk in addition to making a nice sliding catch in the 5th. One of those two-baggers set the table for A-Rod's game-winning hit in the ninth as it put runners on second and third with one out.
  
  
• Andy Pettitte was brilliant yet again, striking out nine in eight innings and allowing just one run. His only real rough patch came in the 6th. He gave up two straight singles to begin the frame and Ichiro dropped a bunt right in front of the plate. Pettitte fielded it cleanly but sailed the throw wide of first, allowing a run to score and the runners to move to second and third.
  
  There was still no one out at this point and it looked likely that the game would be blown wide open. However, Pettitte retired Chone Figgins, intentionally walked Franklin Gutierrez and then proceeded to strike out Russell Braynan and Jose Lopez to wriggle out of the jam with minimal damage.
  
  
• The Yanks put runners on first and second with no one out in the 8th on a walk by A-Rod and a single by Robby Cano. Jason Vargas uncorked a wild pitch and A-Rod moved to third, but Cano didn't take the opportunity to advance to second, possibly influenced by the batter, Jorge Posada initially gesturing for the runners to stay put. As it turns out, Posada grounded into a double play, which scored the run but shut down a further rally. It was a big mistake at the time, regardless of whose fault it was, but thankfully the Yanks got away with it when they got to Mariners' closer David Aardsma for the second time in just over a week.

Not In The Highlights:

• In the first inning, Ichrio was attempting to catch a pop up off the bat of Mark Texieira and bumped into a "fan", who was brushing her hair and proceeded to absolutely freak out and immediately text everyone she knows, "OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG ICHIRO LIKE TOUCHED ME!!!11!1!!!////".
  
  
• Seattle fans, apparently still bitter over him leaving the team ten fucking years ago, threw fake money at Alex Rodriguez when he game to bat in the 8th inning.
  
  
• The Yankees put at least one man on base in every inning last night, but didn't score until the 8th. Particularly frustrating were 1st (1st & 2nd, no outs) and 4th (1st & 2nd, one out). They were 1-11 with runners in scoring position and left 12 men on base.
  
  
• Brett Gardner was 0-4 with three strikeouts, but he did gun down Ichiro at third base in the first inning.
  
  
• Mark Teixeira had a pretty terrible night, hurting the Yanks chances of winning by 38%. he grounded into a double play in the first, and failed to get the runner in from third in the ninth when he popped out to the catcher. Luckily A-Rod was there to pick him up with a huge two out hit.

Up Next:

• Yet another late start as Phil Hughes takes on Cliff Lee.

Wang To Sign With Nats

After a week of swirling rumors that Chien-Ming Wang had signed, was about to sign, or had not at all signed with the Nationals, the deal was officially announced today. Wang gets $2M guaranteed with potential for an additional $3M in incentives. At one point this off-season the Yankees gave the impression they would match any offer. I don't know if they were given the opportunity in this case, but that's likely more money than the Yankees should rightly spend on Wang. Brian Cashman said he could only offer a minor league deal with heavy incentives.

As for the Nats, I like this signing. It should be a low risk, high potential reward deal for them. Wang is still relatively young and had been a very good pitcher up until a Fathers' Day 2008 injury sent his career on a downward spiral. If he can rebound - and that's no small task given his dreadful performance last season, three shoulder injuries, and two shoulder surgeries to his credit - Wang's sinker may work well in Nationals Park, which has been somewhat pitcher friendly in its brief history. Of course, as Jay's outstanding post last week pointed out, recapturing that sinker may not be a sure thing. If Wang can't remaster his top pitch, something he was having difficulty with even prior to his 2008 injury, this may be the end of the road for him.

Wang was the Yankees first homegrown starting pitcher of any substance since Andy Pettitte debuted some ten years before him. He provided the team with two excellent seasons in 2006 and 2007, and pretty effective partial seasons in 2005 and 2008. It was always enjoyable to watch hitters feebly roll over yet another of Wang's heavy sinkers. As we've detailed here many times before, it's a real shame that a fluke injury and some questionable decision making have left him at this stage.

We wish CMW all the best in DC, and remain hopeful he can recreate his past success. And who knows, after this turn back the clock off-season, maybe we'll see Wang in pinstripes again some day. I just hope he's careful on the basepaths in the NL. In the meantime, maybe the Yankees can sign some one else with a funny last name so we could all continue to make juvenile jokes.

On The Bases

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Two of the most critical plays in the Division Series against Minnesota were base running mistakes: Carlos Gomez tripping rounding second base with two outs in the fourth inning of Game Two, and his subsequent failure to get himself caught in a rundown long enough to allow Delmon Young to score may have cost the Twins that game. In Game Three, down by a run with no one out in the eighth, Nick Punto got a little too aggressive rounding third base, and Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Alex Rodriguez combined to pluck the potential tying run right out of scoring position.

In Game Three of the ALCS, the Angels made a pair of base running mistakes of their own. Torii Hunter was erased on a pickoff/caught stealing while trailing 2-0 in the fourth. With the score tied in the eighth, Bobby Abreu erased his own leadoff double by getting nabbed retreating to second base after an overly aggressive turn.

While the Twins and Angels are heralded for "doing the little things right" these base running mistakes (not to mention the Angels' play in the field) have flown in the face of that. The Yankees had been relatively immune to such mistakes on the base paths until Game Four:

- Derek Jeter got picked off/caught stealing after a single to leadoff the game.

- In the fifth, Jorge Posada was on second base with no one out, and failed to score on double from Robinson Cano, victimized by a deke from Hunter in centerfield.

- The next at bat, Posada broke for home on Nick Swisher's tapper back to the mound. I don't know that I can fault Posada for breaking for home. Perhaps the contact play was on. The Yankees scored their first run of the game on a similarly aggressive move from A-Rod in the fourth. But the comedy of (baserunning) errors began thereafter.

Posada, knowing he was a goner at the plate, rightly froze and got caught in a rundown to allow the other runners time to advance. As Posada reatreated to third, he and Cano converged on the bag. For some reason, Cano hesitated and it took a terrible call from third base umpire Tim McClelland to keep the Yankees from losing two outs on the play. While Cano should have already been on the bag, he may have been crossed up by Posada continuing to retreat. Once Posada was sure Cano was at the base safely he should have given himself up. Meanwhile, Swisher failed to advance to second while all this was happening.

- As discussed earlier today, in the seventh Brett Gardner was caught stealing as a pinch runner for the second consecutive day, though this one wasn't nearly as costly as his CS in Game Three.

In the end, none of the Yankees' mistakes on the bases Tuesday proved to be too costly. They've subsisted this post-season largely on the strength of their pitching and on the long ball. But, as we've mentioned here a few times already, they've also had several breaks go their way. These little things matter. Giving outs away on the bases can prove very costly (just ask the Twins) and can make a team "unlucky" awfully quick. Here's hoping that Tuesday's poor base running was the first and last we'll see from them this month.

Red Light, Green Light

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At about the one third mark of this season, I became very vocal here with my belief that Brett Gardner deserved the lion's share of the playing time as the Yankees' centerfielder. His broken thumb in late July pretty much derailed any chance of that becoming a reality.

There was never any doubt that Melky Cabrera would be the starting centerfielder in the post-season, and buoyed by the strength of his ALCS Game Four, Cabrera's small sample size post-season numbers have been good. While some have suggested that Gardner start in place of the slumping Nick Swisher, that shouldn't happen, and I highly doubt it will.

Outside of it flying in the face of conventional wisdom, Joe Girardi seems to be infatuated with the idea of having Brett Gardner available as a pinch running option off the bench. While Hideki Matsui, and to a lesser extent Jorge Posada, make that a desirable option to have, I think the underlying thought process is faulty in something of the same way that the Joba to the bullpen argument is: it doesn't matter how good your late game options are if your early game options don't put you in a place to leverage them. That is, Gardner's speed shouldn't count against him. Don't hold him back because he's fast; if he belongs in the starting line up put him there.

That aside, something unexpected has happened in Gardner's last two pinch running appearances. After being successful in 26 of 31 attempts this year and 39 of 45 in his brief MLB career, Gardner has been caught stealing as a pinch runner in both of the last two games.

At the risk of blowing a small sampling out of proportion, I'm curious about this. Generally speedsters like Gardner have permanent green lights; they're free to go whenever they want so long as they're not given an explicit red light. I would assume that Gardner's operating under those conditions, but the situations in which he's decided to run in the last two games have made me wonder.

In Game Three, Gardner pinch ran for Hideki Matsui in the eighth. He was on first base, with no one out, trailing by a run. After a throw to first, on a 0-1 pitch, Gardner took off for second. Given the situation it was a risky move to begin with, given the count, it was even riskier. The Angels pitched out, Gardner was gunned down at second, and the potential tying run went from on base to the batters box. The Yankees lost 14.3% of win probability in the process, the most costly Yankee out of the game.

In Game Four, Gardner entered again in the eight, again at first, again with no one out. This time at least, the Yankees were up 5-1. After two throws to first, Gardner took off on a 2-0 pitch and got caught again. At least there was no risk of a pitch out that time. Because of the score, this time it only cost the Yankees 1.1% of win probability.

I'm wondering what exactly the thought process is here. Is Gardner perma-greenlighted and going on his own? Is he under express orders to go? As a pinch runner, does he feel like he has to run? In a situation like Game Three's, why is he not given a explicit red light?

I'm not anti-stolen base. In the right situation it is a calculated risk well worth taking. Gardner's SB in the tenth inning of Game Two of the ALDS was a good one. It put him in scoring position as the potential winning run, and his speed later forced an errant pick off throw that put him on third base with just one out. But I'm dubious of the two latest attempts, and not just because of the negative outcomes. I wonder if Gardner's becoming entrenched in his role as pinch runner/defensive replacement and trying to make something happen in each of his limited opportunities.

Risky Robby

Leading off the bottom of the 5th inning last night, Robinson Cano slashed at the first pitch he saw from Vin Mazzaro, sending it bending down the left field line and into the corner. It hit off the wall, just inside of the line and as the ball bounced directly to Matt Holliday and the cameras panned back to Cano, he was just rounding first, and I knew he was dead to rights at second.

It was part of that innate feel you develop as a fan. If you know who's at the plate, you've got a pretty good sense of how long the ball needs to rattle around before an outfielder gets his hands on it for your guy to get to second or third. You know when a balls rolls up to the wall and Jeter is running, he's thinking about a triple (and so are you). With that clean carom, it would have been a tight play even for Brett Gardner.

Replays showed that Cano paused for a second to see if the ball was fair or foul off the bat (understandable), and started down the first kind of slowly, which would have been fine if he was going to settle for a single. But inexplicably, as he was nearing first base, he broke into a full sprint, only to be gunned down at second about literally two full strides at the least. In the second picture on the right, it looks as if first base coach Mick Kelleher yelling at him to stop. That's probably because Holliday had already released the ball and Cano could have turned back.

As you can see, he was at barely in the fame when the ball arrived to Mark Ellis at 2nd base, and was out by 3 full strides.

This is an isolated incident, and it might seem like I'm dwelling on a baserunning mistake for way too long, but I think lends some insight into his lack of discipline at the plate and in turn his inability to hit with runners in scoring position.

His baserunning mistakes (he's 16 for 34 in SB in his career) say more about his level of risk aversion than his speed on the basepaths. The same can be said for someone with a lack of discipline at the plate. They are willing to swing at pitches that are harder to hit, thus increasing the likelihood of failure.

Cano has the 13th highest swing percentage in the Majors with 51.7%, but makes contact 91.2% of the time, which is 7th highest, where the leaders in that category (Luis Castillo, Marco Scutaro) have some of the lowest swing percentages in the game. Think about how good you have to be at putting the bat on the ball to rank so highly in both of those categories. He makes contact with 79.5% of the pitches he swings at out of the zone.

My contention is that his lack of plate discipline is what is eating away at his production with runners in scoring position and men on base in general. He's at .205 w/RISP this year as opposed to .356 without. For his career, he has a .743 OPS men on base as opposed to .895 with the bags unoccupied, and the former includes 14 intentional walks.

My half-baked theory goes like this: Pitchers are more reluctant to give a batter a pitch to hit with men on base, especially early in the count, but Cano goes up swinging like he always does, and puts the bat on the ball, but makes poorer contact as a result. His BABIP bears this out, as it is .297 with men on as opposed to .338 with the bases empty. We usually cite BABIP as a statistic to explain away fluky performances, but this is over his entire career, 2765 plate appearances. There are no more flukes at that sample size.

It's easy to imagine how good Cano could be if he was just more selective at the plate, but as Bill James has pointed out, it's not easy for a hitter to change his approach:

I think it is easier to learn plate discipline than it is to learn speed or to develop a strong throwing arm—but not much easier. A player who lacks plate discipline at age 18 will usually lack plate discipline at age 30. But not always; some players can adapt well to the challenge of learning to lay off certain pitches.

Robinson Cano is an excellent player as he is. Don't get me wrong. He's probably my favorite Yankees' position player and I love watching him take a ball 6 inches off the plate into the home bullpen as much as the next guy. But he will never be a scary, middle of the order type presence unless he can be more selective and make pitchers throw him balls in the strike zone with runners on base.