Game 120: San Francisco Bay Blues

Back on July 23rd, Vin Mazzaro, a product of Rutherford High in New Jersey came to Yankee Stadium and faced off against CC Sabathia in front of a large gathering of friends and family after a 2:43 rain delay. Tonight, the tables will be turned as Sabathia, originally from Vallejo, California will take the mound at the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum in front of his own supporters.

Sabathia hasn't had much luck pitching against the team he rooted for as a kid in his hometown. He's made 8 career starts in Oakland, walking away with a 1-4 record and a 7.12 ERA, which is odd considering it's one of the better pitchers' parks in the Major Leagues and he's one of the better pitchers. It doesn't seem to be hometown jitters because across the Bay at AT&T Park, he's put together two great starts against the Giants, giving up just 3 runs in 17 innings.

In the last iteration of this match up, Mazzaro started off strong, holding the Yanks scoreless through three, while Sabathia stumbled out of the gate and gave up three runs in his first four innings. The tables turned, however, and the Bombers touched up Mazzaro for 6 runs before sending him to the showers with one out in the fifth inning. Sabathia lasted seven, didn't walk a batter and picked up the win.

Since then, Mazzaro has had a rough go of it, giving up 19 runs in his last 21 1/3 innings but still managing to go 2-1. Sabathia, meanwhile, has allowed 13 runs in 28 1/3 IP (4.12 ERA). Over his last two starts, though, he's been dominant, allowing just one run and 5 hits over 15 2/3 IP while striking out 19 and walking just 4.

After dropping the series opener against the A's last night, the Yankees look towards their ace to avoid a three game slide. The Yanks have had six separate losing streaks of three games or more this season, accounting for nearly half of their 45 losses. They've also had 11 streaks of 3 or more wins, which sum to represent 55 of their 74 victories.

The Yanks have looked pretty poor in their last two outings, mustering only 3 runs in games started by Doug Fister and Brett Tomko. Hopefully both they and CC Sabathia can shed their respective versions of the blues and chalk up a win tonight in the Bay Area. The game doesn't start for another 5 hours, so try to keep your spirits up as well.

[I'll check back in if there are any interesting pre-game developments or line up configurations]

If I ever get her back to stay,
It's going to be another brand new day,
Walking with my baby down by the San Francisco Bay.

Risky Robby

Leading off the bottom of the 5th inning last night, Robinson Cano slashed at the first pitch he saw from Vin Mazzaro, sending it bending down the left field line and into the corner. It hit off the wall, just inside of the line and as the ball bounced directly to Matt Holliday and the cameras panned back to Cano, he was just rounding first, and I knew he was dead to rights at second.

It was part of that innate feel you develop as a fan. If you know who's at the plate, you've got a pretty good sense of how long the ball needs to rattle around before an outfielder gets his hands on it for your guy to get to second or third. You know when a balls rolls up to the wall and Jeter is running, he's thinking about a triple (and so are you). With that clean carom, it would have been a tight play even for Brett Gardner.

Replays showed that Cano paused for a second to see if the ball was fair or foul off the bat (understandable), and started down the first kind of slowly, which would have been fine if he was going to settle for a single. But inexplicably, as he was nearing first base, he broke into a full sprint, only to be gunned down at second about literally two full strides at the least. In the second picture on the right, it looks as if first base coach Mick Kelleher yelling at him to stop. That's probably because Holliday had already released the ball and Cano could have turned back.

As you can see, he was at barely in the fame when the ball arrived to Mark Ellis at 2nd base, and was out by 3 full strides.

This is an isolated incident, and it might seem like I'm dwelling on a baserunning mistake for way too long, but I think lends some insight into his lack of discipline at the plate and in turn his inability to hit with runners in scoring position.

His baserunning mistakes (he's 16 for 34 in SB in his career) say more about his level of risk aversion than his speed on the basepaths. The same can be said for someone with a lack of discipline at the plate. They are willing to swing at pitches that are harder to hit, thus increasing the likelihood of failure.

Cano has the 13th highest swing percentage in the Majors with 51.7%, but makes contact 91.2% of the time, which is 7th highest, where the leaders in that category (Luis Castillo, Marco Scutaro) have some of the lowest swing percentages in the game. Think about how good you have to be at putting the bat on the ball to rank so highly in both of those categories. He makes contact with 79.5% of the pitches he swings at out of the zone.

My contention is that his lack of plate discipline is what is eating away at his production with runners in scoring position and men on base in general. He's at .205 w/RISP this year as opposed to .356 without. For his career, he has a .743 OPS men on base as opposed to .895 with the bags unoccupied, and the former includes 14 intentional walks.

My half-baked theory goes like this: Pitchers are more reluctant to give a batter a pitch to hit with men on base, especially early in the count, but Cano goes up swinging like he always does, and puts the bat on the ball, but makes poorer contact as a result. His BABIP bears this out, as it is .297 with men on as opposed to .338 with the bases empty. We usually cite BABIP as a statistic to explain away fluky performances, but this is over his entire career, 2765 plate appearances. There are no more flukes at that sample size.

It's easy to imagine how good Cano could be if he was just more selective at the plate, but as Bill James has pointed out, it's not easy for a hitter to change his approach:

I think it is easier to learn plate discipline than it is to learn speed or to develop a strong throwing arm—but not much easier. A player who lacks plate discipline at age 18 will usually lack plate discipline at age 30. But not always; some players can adapt well to the challenge of learning to lay off certain pitches.

Robinson Cano is an excellent player as he is. Don't get me wrong. He's probably my favorite Yankees' position player and I love watching him take a ball 6 inches off the plate into the home bullpen as much as the next guy. But he will never be a scary, middle of the order type presence unless he can be more selective and make pitchers throw him balls in the strike zone with runners on base.

Worth The Wait

By the time the players and fans had sat out the 2:43 minute rain delay last night, they could have watched a replay of Mark Buherle's perfect game in Chicago and still had 40 minutes to spare. It was almost 10:00PM at gametime, a brisk 66 degrees and windy with a slight drizzle still falling down. The weather system that had caused the delay had moved off the coast, leaving only scattered pockets of light rain behind.

Early on, Vin Mazzaro seemed poised to out-pitch CC Sabathia in front of a huge cheering section in the upper deck that was a mix of #54 Mazzaro jerseys, Oakland hoodies and Yankees logos.

He blazed through the first three innings, holding the Yanks scoreless and striking out six in the process, all the while be staked to a 3-0 lead. The runs came on a sac fly by Jack Cust and a single by Bobby Crosby in the second and a single by his battery mate Kurt Suzuki in the top of the 4th.

However, not all went according to plan for the 22 year old righty from Rutherford. Mark Teixeira ripped a two run homer to right after being green-lighted on a 3-0 pitch in the 4th to get the Yanks off the schneid. A-Rod followed that with a walk, stole second and was rewarded for his timely thievery by being promptly doubled in by Jorge Posada. Eric Hinkse continued his Swisherific start as a Yankee by adding a two out single and putting the Yanks ahead for good.

Two more runs came to the plate against Mazzaro in the 5th inning, bringing his total to six and sending him to the showers. He pitched well in the early going, but once the Yanks woke up from their rain delay slumber, he couldn't hold on. The win last night brought the Bombers' record against rookie starters this year to 18-7, which is the best in the AL and second only to the Braves (10-4) in the Majors, according to the YES broadcast last night. You think we can put that myth to rest for a while?

Sabathia settled down after his rough 2nd and 4th innings and held the A's to three runs though seven. He gave up 9 hits but didn't walk a batter while striking out 4. Phil Hughes came on for the 8th inning and sat the A's down 1-2-3. To be honest, I thought Joe Girardi would probably bring on Rivera in the 9th to close it out but to my surprise (and delight) he gave the new found bullpen stud a shot at his first major league save. Hughes sat them down in order in the 9th and seized the opportunity.

The Yanks are making it look easy right now. This was their largest margin of victory since the All-Star Break, a whopping three runs, and they did it in comeback fashion. In those 7 games, the pitching staff has given up only 17 runs (2.4/game) while the offense has scored 29 (4.1 per). They haven't blown their opponents out of the water, but they've found ways to win close games, which might be even more satisfying. This victory, coupled with an off night for the Sox stretches their lead in the AL East to 2.5 games.

Game 95: Got To Get Better In A Little While

This will be CC Sabathia's second start against the A's wearing Pinstripes, and the last one wasn't particularly pretty. It took place on April 22nd and was a sloppy back and forth affair that took 14 innings and nearly 5 hours to complete. CC went 6 2/3 innings but allowed 7 runs (6 earned) and only struck out two. His opponent that day was Brett Anderson, a rookie from Midland, Texas making his first start against the Yanks. The Yanks got to Anderson as well (5ER in 5 2/3IP), but neither factored into the decision for obvious reasons.

Tonight, another rookie will make his debut against the Yankees in the Bronx, although this one might be a little more familiar with the area. Vin Mazzaro was born in Hackensack and attended Rutherford High School from which he was drafted by Oakland in the 3rd round of the 2005 draft. He started out in low A-Ball in 2006 with less than impressive results. He started 24 games for the Kane County Cougars, averaged fewer than 5 innings per appearance and had an ERA of 5.05. He was promoted in 2007 anyway to High A Ball in Stockon, CA where he produced similar results: a 5.35 ERA and a 1.62 K/BB ratio.

He received another promotion in 2008 (to AA) and took a gigantic leap forward in his age 21 season. Scouts credit his improvement to increases in velocity and swapping a nasty slider for what had been a relatively ineffective curveball. He was promoted to AAA before the conclusion of the year but struggled there, posting an ERA of 6.15 over 33 2/3 innings. His 2009 season began in AAA but picked up where he left off in AA performance-wise, compiling a 2.38 ERA in 9 starts and one relief appearance. He was called up to the Major League club in late May this year, and hit the ground running. He didn't allow a run over his first two starts, totalling 13 2/3 innings, but his ERA has risen steadily ever since. It's now at 4.09 following 5 consective losing outings and his record sits at 2-6.

Sabathia, on the other hand, has been alternating gems and clunkers over his past 5 starts, going 3-2. He's given up only 2 runs in the 1st, 3rd & 5th of those outings while surrendering 11 in the 2nd and 4th. He came back from the All-Star break on a high note with 7 shutout innings against the Tigers and looks to keep that momentum going tonight. As was the case in the Detroit game, Jorge Posada will do the catching.

It might be a little while before the game starts up tonight as rain is already falling on the NYC area. It looks like it's going to pass, but not for a while. Ross from New Stadium Insider's personal Weather connection tells us that the game probably won't start until about 8:30. Check back with him for more updates or stop by Yankees Weather on Twitter.

Hang in there, this rain won't last forever.

Still one thing that you can do;
Fall down on your knees and pray.

It's got to get better in a little while...