The Search For Mo's Best Streak

As I noted in last night's recap, Mariano Rivera converted his 32nd consecutive save opportunity last night dating back to April 29th, a set a new career high. This streak includes 43 appearances, during which he had a ERA of 1.85 and a K/BB ratio of 46/8. However, this span also included two losses (both to the Rays) one in which he gave up two homers and the other where he allowed 4 runs (3 earned).

As we all know, the save is an arbitrary and flawed statistic, so I was curious find out how this stretch stacked up with others in his career and what his finest streak really was. Using Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Streak Finder (you can subscribe to the PI for $5/month or $30/year), I started running some queries.

It turns out that Mo has had eerily similar runs starting sometime in April and running to various points throughout August in four out of the last 5 years.

In the months of May, June and July over the past 5 years he's blown ONE SAVE, on June 17th, 2006 against the Nationals. Chew on that for a second. 15 months of baseball, one blown save. 133 save chances, 132 saves. It's sort of cherry picking months of the season, and he's had some difficulties in non-save situations over that span, but he has been incomparable at locking down wins once he hits his stride in the season. And he was 35 years old in 2005.

Every year, he has some rough patches in April, when he's still finding his grove which cause people to get panicky. And he hits a couple of bumps in the road in August when the 40 something appearances he's accrued start to catch up with his arm, which cause others to wonder if there's something wrong with him, but there never is. You could set your watch to the guy. He's a man-chine.

If you look at those streaks, it's clear that the one in 2005, which he just "surpassed" in terms of saves, was the best. He had a 0.71 ERA, allowed just 31 hits and 8 walks in 50 2/3 IP (0.769 WHIP) and struck out 56. The 2008 version was also slightly better since he pitched more innings to a lower ERA.

It all depends on how you want to slice it. He had a streak of 88 games from April of '97 to July of '98 where he didn't give up more than more earned run in any appearance and had a 1.40 ERA. He did blow 9 saves and take 3 losses, but never both in the same game. During 71 outings from June 2003 to May 2004, he also didn't give up more than one ER at a time over that stretch and had only 5 blown saves and two losses.

There was one other streak without a blown save which spanned two seasons, which didn't fit in with the April/August iterations above, and it actually turns out to be the best of them all.

During this one, he went 44 appearances and 52 1/3 IP without a blown save or a loss, including the 12 1/3 IP in the postseason. As part of that run, from July 22nd, 1999 through the sweep of the Braves in the World Series, over 36 games and 43 IP, he didn't allow a single run. It's also worth noting that the current streak only includes 32 saves while this one has 33.

I believe that's the winner, folks. I'm guessing there has never been another streak like it, which included a scoreless postseason and World Series victory, but you're more than welcome to pony up the $5 to B-R, pull up the Streak Finder and try to prove me wrong.

Worth The Wait

By the time the players and fans had sat out the 2:43 minute rain delay last night, they could have watched a replay of Mark Buherle's perfect game in Chicago and still had 40 minutes to spare. It was almost 10:00PM at gametime, a brisk 66 degrees and windy with a slight drizzle still falling down. The weather system that had caused the delay had moved off the coast, leaving only scattered pockets of light rain behind.

Early on, Vin Mazzaro seemed poised to out-pitch CC Sabathia in front of a huge cheering section in the upper deck that was a mix of #54 Mazzaro jerseys, Oakland hoodies and Yankees logos.

He blazed through the first three innings, holding the Yanks scoreless and striking out six in the process, all the while be staked to a 3-0 lead. The runs came on a sac fly by Jack Cust and a single by Bobby Crosby in the second and a single by his battery mate Kurt Suzuki in the top of the 4th.

However, not all went according to plan for the 22 year old righty from Rutherford. Mark Teixeira ripped a two run homer to right after being green-lighted on a 3-0 pitch in the 4th to get the Yanks off the schneid. A-Rod followed that with a walk, stole second and was rewarded for his timely thievery by being promptly doubled in by Jorge Posada. Eric Hinkse continued his Swisherific start as a Yankee by adding a two out single and putting the Yanks ahead for good.

Two more runs came to the plate against Mazzaro in the 5th inning, bringing his total to six and sending him to the showers. He pitched well in the early going, but once the Yanks woke up from their rain delay slumber, he couldn't hold on. The win last night brought the Bombers' record against rookie starters this year to 18-7, which is the best in the AL and second only to the Braves (10-4) in the Majors, according to the YES broadcast last night. You think we can put that myth to rest for a while?

Sabathia settled down after his rough 2nd and 4th innings and held the A's to three runs though seven. He gave up 9 hits but didn't walk a batter while striking out 4. Phil Hughes came on for the 8th inning and sat the A's down 1-2-3. To be honest, I thought Joe Girardi would probably bring on Rivera in the 9th to close it out but to my surprise (and delight) he gave the new found bullpen stud a shot at his first major league save. Hughes sat them down in order in the 9th and seized the opportunity.

The Yanks are making it look easy right now. This was their largest margin of victory since the All-Star Break, a whopping three runs, and they did it in comeback fashion. In those 7 games, the pitching staff has given up only 17 runs (2.4/game) while the offense has scored 29 (4.1 per). They haven't blown their opponents out of the water, but they've found ways to win close games, which might be even more satisfying. This victory, coupled with an off night for the Sox stretches their lead in the AL East to 2.5 games.

Morning Mariano Roundup

I said my piece in last night's game recap, now let's hear what others are saying about Rivera's accomplishment on this Monday Mo'ning.

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Shysterball: Mariano Rivera got his 500th save. More impressive: he drew a bases-loaded walk, giving him his first career RBI in 15 seasons. Francisco Rodriguez gave it up, which in some cosmic way illustrates the vast gulf between those two pitchers in my mind. How do you walk Mariano Rivera? Nerves is all I can think, and you can bet your ass that if the situation was reversed, Rivera would never have walked Rodriguez, because Rivera's body temperature runs at a constant 57 degrees.

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PeteAbe: If you’ll permit me a personal aside, I’ve been doing this job since I was 17 and Mariano is the best athlete I have covered. He is the model of professionalism in how he approaches every aspect of his job, how he treats his teammates and how he treats those around the team, including reporters. [He's got some audio from the postgame as well].

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Emma Span (From Bronx Banter): Rivera closed out the game afterwards with a minimum of fuss for his 500th save, and while I think most everyone reading the Banter would agree that the save is a deeply flawed statistic, this is really just another opportunity to reflect on how freakishly awesome Mariano has been, is now, and hopefully will continue to be - for at least a while longer. You can’t really overhype Mo, and that’s saying something.

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David Pinto (As it was happening): If Rivera converts this save, he’ll earn his 110th long save, a save of more than one inning. That will double the next closest total from 1996 on, 55 by Keith Foulke.

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She-Fan: After he notched the final out, there was no fist pumping, no theatrics, just his customary classy, humble demeanor. His teammates gathered around to congratulate him, and I sat in my living room sobbing like a sentimental fool.

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Tyler Kepner: There was something poetic in the strange walk Mariano Rivera drew with the bases loaded in the top of the ninth inning on Sunday at Citi Field. It made the score Yankees 4, Mets 2 – the same score as it was in Flushing on Oct. 26, 2000, the fifth and final game of the World Series.

That was the last time Rivera closed out a championship, the last time he allowed himself to show much emotion after a victory. Rivera views everything through the prism of the team. Like Derek Jeter, part of his greatness is in his rigidly simplistic view of his craft. He never complicates anything.

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Ben K. (From River Ave. Blues): On Friday, he had just his second career at-bat, and he nearly managed to knock in a few with a line drive. Today, he was more patient. He saw seven pitches from K-Rod — including one foul ball — and the Yanks’ Hall of Fame closer worked out a bases loaded walk. It would be his first RBI of his career, and the timing — coming on the same night as his 500th save — could not be better.

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Joel Sherman: "I didn't expect any of this," Rivera said afterward.

How could anyone expect it? He barely made the team in 1996. But slowly -- with one success after another -- he gained then manager Joe Torre's trust, and moved from mop-up to long man to main set-up guy to Wetteland's fill on that May night.

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Ken Davidoff: Rivera's career, at a job in which the shelf life of most pitchers is a few years, has been remarkable. The milestone reminds us. Rivera's overall performance makes us look silly for questioning whether he was done.

Diminished? A little, at age 39. Done? Not even close.

Five Straight And Five Hundred

After getting blanked by Tommy Hanson and the Braves last Tuesday, the Yankees had lost three in a row and five of their last six. The bats were dormant, mustering only 13 runs over that stretch. Since then they've ripped off five wins in a row, outscoring their opponents 37-13. Not coincidentally, over that time, A-Rod has seemingly found his groove again, picking up 7 hits, 9 walks and driving in 9 runs during the streak.

The Yanks hit the ground running in the first inning against Livan Hernandez with a double by Derek Jeter high off the wall in left center field, a shot which would have left most other MLB parks. Next up, batting in place of the flu-stricken Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher pulled a ball to the right side which Daniel Murphy inadvisably threw to third in an attempt to nab the lead runner. Instead of taking the easy out at first, both runners were safe. Mark Teixiera took the opportunity to bust a double to left, driving in both Jeter and Swish. Still no one out.

A-Rod worked one of his three walks of the evening then Robby Cano bounced into a force out which moved Teixeria over to third. Jorge Posada brought him home on a sac fly and provided Chien Ming Wang with some room to maneuver.

Wang kept the Mets off the board until the 4th inning. Gary Sheffield worked a lead off walk and was driven home by a Fernando Martinez double two batters later. Luis Castillo then drove home Martinez with a single to left before the inning was over.

Wang wasn't very sharp, but made it to the sixth inning having thrown a reasonable 80 pitches and allowing only the two runs in the fourth. Sheff reached base for the third time in as many at bats against Wang, this time via a single to lead off the inning. In a rather sad testament to the state of the Mets line up right now, their number five hitter Fernando Tatis laid down a sac bunt to advance Sheff to second base down by one run in the sixth inning. Joe Girardi then called on Phil Coke to face Fernando Martinez, ending Chien Ming Wang's night short of that elusive quality start, but in line for a victory nonetheless.

Coke struck out F-Mart at which point Jerry Manuel called on Omir Santos to pinch hit for Brian Schnieder. Joe Girardi countered by calling on Phil Hughes. These kinds of "strategic moves" make me happy that interleauge play is over. I hate pinch hitters and excessive calls to the bullpen predicated on match ups. Managers feel obligated to respond to the opposing manager's moves, lest they open themselves to being second guessed. I personally think that a pitcher striking out the batter before is a better predictor of success than which arm he uses to throw the ball. This season (and pretty much every other one), the platoon splits amount to just a few percent, an advantage that could easily be negated by having to bring in a new pitcher out of the bullpen.

Managers are under pressure to make the decision that is perceived to be rational, not necessarily the one that is rational. If they fail making the conventional decision, it's much more tolerable than if they go against the grain and unfortunately, the former typically happens to be a giant waste of everyone's time. Anyway, the move worked out as Hughes retired Santos and came back out to pitch a scoreless seventh inning.

When people talk about this game months and years down the line, which they certainly will, no one will mention that Brian Bruney's inability to throw strikes set the table for one of the most memorable milestone achievement games I can remember. In the process of getting two outs, Bruney issued walks to David Wright and Fernando Tatis. With men on first and second, Mariano Rivera was called on for a four out save. After an 8 pitch at bat which included four foul balls, Mo caught Santos looking on a strike that just tickled the inside corner.

The pitcher's spot was due up 6th in the inning, but unlike when Mo batted in Atlanta, it was obvious he would stay in when it was his time to hop into the on-deck circle. However, with Jeter facing K-Rod, Girardi sent up Francisco Cervelli to pretend as if he was going to hit for Rivera, which didn't fool anyone. After curiously dropping the first pitch to DJ for a strike, K-Rod threw four straight balls (two intentional) to create the rare match up of a closer facing a closer.

Standing in the box wearing Cody Ransom's batting helmet, Mo took the first two pitches for balls, causing a collective groan at Citi Field. The next pitches were fastballs called as strikes, as Rivera didn't flinch; his clear intention was to get on base the easy way, if possible. With the count level at 2-2, K-Rod dialed it up a bit and tossed a four-seamer down Broadway. Mo unleashed a vicious cut, fouling it back. Perhaps the hack got in K-Rod's head because he failed to deliver another strike and instead walked Rivera to force in a run. It was the first RBI of his career.

Then came the bottom of the ninth, when Mo did what Mo pretty much always does.

In fitting fashion, it was a four out save with two strikeouts and only one hit. Trevor Hoffman might have 71 more saves than Rivera, but he hasn't had an appearance which lasted longer than one inning since 2004 (and that wasn't a save). Fitting too that Mo's RBI came against K-Rod, one of the few active relievers with a chance to compile career statistics anywhere near Rivera's. Even more so when you consider that it came via a walk, a demon that K-Rod can't quite seem to tame and one that is all but a non-issue to Rivera.

Even when it appears to be beyond his control, the moments seem to find Mariano. During the inning, promos for Mo's Sunday Conversation on SportsCenter ran and there was preemptive talk about what it would mean for Rivera to convert his 500th save.

You can tell yourself to savor this moment. You can remind yourself that 500 saves makes 300 wins seem commonplace by comparison. You can try to let the fact that we are watching the greatest of all time do his thing on a semi-nightly basis, but there's no way to fully appreciate someone like Rivera when he's actually in motion. Full reflection requires observation at a distance, something which we all hope doesn't come for quite some time.

Congrats Mo, and many more.

One Mo Thought

Mariano Rivera issued his first walk of the season today, and that might not be a bad thing. It was the only baserunner he allowed on his way to converting his sixth save of the season in a 5-3 victory over the Orioles. 

Given that Mo has been touched up pretty good recently, it might do him some good to work off the plate more often and get hitters to chase instead of just pounding the strike zone. With diminished velocity, he might have to change his approach a little, and not be afriad to issue a walk if it might diminsh the chance of surrendering a home run.