Showing posts with label man-chine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label man-chine. Show all posts

Thursday, August 20, 2009

The Search For Mo's Best Streak

As I noted in last night's recap, Mariano Rivera converted his 32nd consecutive save opportunity last night dating back to April 29th, a set a new career high. This streak includes 43 appearances, during which he had a ERA of 1.85 and a K/BB ratio of 46/8. However, this span also included two losses (both to the Rays) one in which he gave up two homers and the other where he allowed 4 runs (3 earned).

As we all know, the save is an arbitrary and flawed statistic, so I was curious find out how this stretch stacked up with others in his career and what his finest streak really was. Using Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Streak Finder (you can subscribe to the PI for $5/month or $30/year), I started running some queries.

It turns out that Mo has had eerily similar runs starting sometime in April and running to various points throughout August in four out of the last 5 years.

In the months of May, June and July over the past 5 years he's blown ONE SAVE, on June 17th, 2006 against the Nationals. Chew on that for a second. 15 months of baseball, one blown save. 133 save chances, 132 saves. It's sort of cherry picking months of the season, and he's had some difficulties in non-save situations over that span, but he has been incomparable at locking down wins once he hits his stride in the season. And he was 35 years old in 2005.

Every year, he has some rough patches in April, when he's still finding his grove which cause people to get panicky. And he hits a couple of bumps in the road in August when the 40 something appearances he's accrued start to catch up with his arm, which cause others to wonder if there's something wrong with him, but there never is. You could set your watch to the guy. He's a man-chine.

If you look at those streaks, it's clear that the one in 2005, which he just "surpassed" in terms of saves, was the best. He had a 0.71 ERA, allowed just 31 hits and 8 walks in 50 2/3 IP (0.769 WHIP) and struck out 56. The 2008 version was also slightly better since he pitched more innings to a lower ERA.

It all depends on how you want to slice it. He had a streak of 88 games from April of '97 to July of '98 where he didn't give up more than more earned run in any appearance and had a 1.40 ERA. He did blow 9 saves and take 3 losses, but never both in the same game. During 71 outings from June 2003 to May 2004, he also didn't give up more than one ER at a time over that stretch and had only 5 blown saves and two losses.

There was one other streak without a blown save which spanned two seasons, which didn't fit in with the April/August iterations above, and it actually turns out to be the best of them all.

During this one, he went 44 appearances and 52 1/3 IP without a blown save or a loss, including the 12 1/3 IP in the postseason. As part of that run, from July 22nd, 1999 through the sweep of the Braves in the World Series, over 36 games and 43 IP, he didn't allow a single run. It's also worth noting that the current streak only includes 32 saves while this one has 33.

I believe that's the winner, folks. I'm guessing there has never been another streak like it, which included a scoreless postseason and World Series victory, but you're more than welcome to pony up the $5 to B-R, pull up the Streak Finder and try to prove me wrong.

Friday, February 13, 2009

What To Make Of Mo

2008 was the best season of Mariano Rivera's career. Surprising? It was to me...

His save total was only 6th highest, but he had his lowest ERA, WHIP, highest ERA+, and best K/BB ratio in his 14 years in the Major Leagues. He only walked SIX batters in SEVENTY AND TWO THIRDS INNINGS while striking out seventy seven. 12.8 would be a sick K/9 ratio, but that was his K/BB ratio. (his K/9 was actually slightly lower at 9.8). Frankie Rodriguez might have tallied 62 saves and overshadowed Mo, but his WHIP and K/BB ratios were significantly worse than Rivera's worst season. Which was 2007.

Rivera and Jorge Posada both signed massive contracts (especially compared to the ones being signed this offseason) last year at the ages of 37 and 35, respectively. The older of the two men had his most valuable season as a Yankee, while the younger chap has his least. Both had shoulder surgery over the offseason performed by Mets' doctor David Altchek, but Jorge's was far more serious. Mo had some calcification removed from this right shoulder joint, while Posada's procedure was to repair his glenoid labrum.

Mo is a completely unique case. There is no precedent set for a 39 year old (predominantly) one pitch reliever who just posted his worst and best seasons as a professional back to back. Statistically, relievers are much more prone to sharp declines because one three run homer (like Marco Scutaro's dinger off the foul pole in Oakland in 2007) in a 70 inning season takes an ERA from 1.80 to 2.19. A couple bad outings and you are looking a drastically worsened statistical profile.

Am I worried about Mo? Yeah, a little bit. Although it was a minor surgery, he still went under the knife. Rivera is such a finely tuned man-chine you get the feeling that he could make the necessary adjustments. He is ubiqutously revered by Yankees fans and feared by those of opposing teams. He's been so good for so long that it's easy to take him for granted, but some point he is going to enter a decline phase.
For the heck of it, here is my prediction (barring injury):
72IP, 2.25 ERA, 67K, 13BB, .975WHIP

Monday, February 9, 2009

Back Off Asshole, He's Mine [Non-Sports]

[Ed Note: Since I'm not at work today, there are going to be a few non-sports posts. Hope you folks don't mind.]Does this guy know that Captain Chesley B. Sullenberger III is mine, or am I going to have to be a bitch about it?

Liking 60 Minutes is one of the things, (along with my affinities for scotch, golf, trout fishing and 70's music) that makes me a 55 year old trapped trapped in a 24 year old body. Well, last night, 60 Mins had an awesome several segment feature centering around Cap'n Sully and his retelling of the perfectly executed landing in the Hudson River.

[Ed. Note: I couldn't pause for a screen grab. Pretty craaaay-zaaay pic, right?]

The landing wasn't dumb luck. Sully showed incredible grace under fire, calculating every single thing that happened, even positioning the plane near some NY Waterway Ferries so as to close the gap between landing and response. It probably helped that he was previously an Accident Investigator and Saftey Lecturer.

I don't care how many cases you've studied or how many lectures you're given. Nothing can prepare you to look at this knowing you have to put a plane with 155 people on it down into a 30 something degree body of water adjacent to one of the most densely populated areas on the planet.


"Oh m'gosh y'all! We almost died!" I'll forgive her though, she's pretty hot for an older gal.

Those are not tears shown below. It's only a saline fluid that the masterminds at NASA who programmed this marvelous man-chine included just in case it was ever forced to show "emotion".



And now a special message from Andy Rooney:

Mrrraahh!

(scowls)

You know what would cut down on the number of plane crashes? NOT FLYING!

(face contorts with anger)

It seems to me that everyone nowadays is flying somewhere. Vacations, business trips, family reunions. Why can't they just do it how I did it back when I was young? Get your family, load up your horse and buggy, and try not to die of dysentery.

Why not drive one of those newfangled automobiles or take a train? I've taken many trains in my day. It's a good time to read the Saturday Evening Post or the Farmer's Almanac.

At least no one ever tried to drive a train into a building as a terrorist attack!


Bonus Oregon Trail GChat featuring a special guest appearance from Carmen Sandiego!!! Brendan, as always, has the strategery down pat.

Brendan: love me some dysentery
the key to that game was shooting buffalo and then trading it for dollars at the trading posts
1:30 PM
Brendan: why one would waste bullets on the squirrel and rabbits is beyond me.. seeing as they were hard as hell to kill, and gave you like 2lbs of meat
1:31 PM me: absolutely
Brendan: it really made no sense
me: remember how you had to ford the rivers too?
Brendan: yeah was just going to bring that up
it was toll road or you're getting in the water
Brendan: and to hell if i was paying a damned toll
1:32 PM communists
me: yeah who was fucking collecting tolls anyway?
it was the 1800s
me: if anyone it should have been the native americansBrendan: lol, true that
Brendan: you also had to have a shitty occupation to get the multiplier bonus at the end
1:34 PM another great memory was making up witty names for your fellow travelers... You had to stop for 3 days because Boobies has cholera
1:36 PM me: lol
1:37 PM if you scroll down there is a pic of a tombstone that says "Here lies Pepperony[sic] and cheese
1:41 PM Brendan: or where in the USA is carmen san diego
that was an epic game.. because once you won it wasn't over.. as you always could improve your rank
me: yeah loved that show too
Brendan: Rockefellas
1:42 PM me: "Alright, Gumshoes..."
yeah forgot about those fuckers
me: odd for a children's game show to have its own a capella group, but whatever
1:43 PM wow they are still milking it, huh?
Brendan: well that was in 2000
but hell I would
1:44 PM crazy and unexpected beatbox at the end of that clip
and i'm pretty sure he has his neck pierced