Runnin' On Jorge

Entering this season, before everyone was questioning whether or not Jorge Posada could call a game, the biggest concern was whether or not his shoulder would be healthy enough to throw out potential base stealers. Given that Posada is 38 years old, there was no guarantee that his shoulder would make a full recovery from the surgery he underwent to repair a tear in his rotator cuff and damage to his glenoid labrum. It seems that opposing teams still aren't convinced that he is healthy.

Last year, in 241 innings behind the plate, teams attempted 41 steals against Posada. He was run on in 10.3% of the plate appearances where there was s stolen base opportunity, which was second in the the American League only to Toby Hall (11.2%). Kevin Cash (9.3%) was the only other catcher with significant playing time to be tested more that 8.4% of the time. The attempts against Posada were successful 34/41 times, and of the seven times they were caught, five times the runner was picked off before the pitcher delivered the ball. That left Jorge's percentage of actually throwing out runners at a horrific 5.5%.

This year, one of those trends has reversed dramatically. Teams still are running on Posada, in fact, at an even higher percentage than before. They have attempted to steal in 11.2% of stolen base opportunities, far and away the most in the AL. Jason Varitek has been challenged next most often, but at only 8.5% of the time.

Here is the good news. Despite teams running on Jorge at an even higher rate than last year, they are successful far less often. Would-be thieves have been nabbed in 15 out of 47 attempts, 10 by Posada. That's 32% caught stealing and 21% by Jorge himself. It's still early in the season, but judging by this metric, the results of his surgery appear to be pretty incredible.

Frankie Cervelli gets run on 7.4% of the time (7th among the 21 AL catchers with 200+ SBOs) but has thrown out 31%, and sports a total CS% of 38. Here are the top 10 by Run %.

Theoretically, caught stealing percentage and run percentage would have an inverse relationship because in aggregate, managers should be less likely to test the catchers most likely to throw out the runner (obviously). But a lot of managers still rely on their gut or other instincts as opposed to hard numbers, so the list doesn't really bear that out.

It would seem that opposing managers and speedsters are underestimating Posada pretty drastically. Since a pitcher picking a runner off in the process of trying to steal a base has little to do with who is behind the plate, the best way to determine who gets the least respect for throwing out runners would be to juxtapose Run % with the Catcher's Caught Stealing % (CS% by C above).

Using this method, here are the three most disrespected catchers in the AL, sorted by the differential between the two rankings:

Kenji Johjima has the highest caught stealing and caught stealing by catcher, yet he ranks in the top half in Run % (8th). Talk about No Respect... Kenji is a very low key player, stashed away up in Seattle which must work to his advantage because this is one of the cases where flying under the radar does you a lot of good.

Figure this one out: A.J. Pierzynski only gets run on 5.5% of the time (18th out the 21), but has only thrown out one runner this season. Attention AL Skippers... you might want to start running on A.J. Pierzynski. Navarro and Suzuki are far less egregious cases, but it should be noted that they haven't quite earned the respect they have been given.

What To Make Of Mo

2008 was the best season of Mariano Rivera's career. Surprising? It was to me...

His save total was only 6th highest, but he had his lowest ERA, WHIP, highest ERA+, and best K/BB ratio in his 14 years in the Major Leagues. He only walked SIX batters in SEVENTY AND TWO THIRDS INNINGS while striking out seventy seven. 12.8 would be a sick K/9 ratio, but that was his K/BB ratio. (his K/9 was actually slightly lower at 9.8). Frankie Rodriguez might have tallied 62 saves and overshadowed Mo, but his WHIP and K/BB ratios were significantly worse than Rivera's worst season. Which was 2007.

Rivera and Jorge Posada both signed massive contracts (especially compared to the ones being signed this offseason) last year at the ages of 37 and 35, respectively. The older of the two men had his most valuable season as a Yankee, while the younger chap has his least. Both had shoulder surgery over the offseason performed by Mets' doctor David Altchek, but Jorge's was far more serious. Mo had some calcification removed from this right shoulder joint, while Posada's procedure was to repair his glenoid labrum.

Mo is a completely unique case. There is no precedent set for a 39 year old (predominantly) one pitch reliever who just posted his worst and best seasons as a professional back to back. Statistically, relievers are much more prone to sharp declines because one three run homer (like Marco Scutaro's dinger off the foul pole in Oakland in 2007) in a 70 inning season takes an ERA from 1.80 to 2.19. A couple bad outings and you are looking a drastically worsened statistical profile.

Am I worried about Mo? Yeah, a little bit. Although it was a minor surgery, he still went under the knife. Rivera is such a finely tuned man-chine you get the feeling that he could make the necessary adjustments. He is ubiqutously revered by Yankees fans and feared by those of opposing teams. He's been so good for so long that it's easy to take him for granted, but some point he is going to enter a decline phase.

For the heck of it, here is my prediction (barring injury):

72IP, 2.25 ERA, 67K, 13BB, .975WHIP

Number of Days Until Spring Training: #20 (Jorge Posada)

Jorge Posada's glenoid labrum might have been the biggest reason the Yankees didn't make the playoffs last year. He was placed on the DL July 21st and in his place, Jose Molina, Chad Moeller and Pudge Rodriguez cobbled together offensive statistics barely above replacement level.

Two years ago, as a 35 year old catcher, Posada's slash stats (1st PP) were .338/.426/.543, good for a 154OPS+. Yes, AS A CATCHER (the toughest position in the league to find offensive production at). His studly woodwork earned him a Silver Slugger Award, a start in the All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium and 6th place in the MVP voting.

Coming off what was easily his best offensive season of his career in 2007, Posada signed a four year, $52M contract, far and away the most money ever committed to a catcher at such a late point in his career. The Yankees had no choice if they wanted to retain him. The Mets, among others, were hot on his trail and even offered him a four year deal at similar money. Brian Cashman probably knew that it was a bad investment overall, but as is the case in almost every other offseason, the options on the free agent market at catcher were threadbare.

Posada was going to come down to earth last year, even if he didn't get injured. He has always been a solid offensive force for a catcher, but 2007 was a complete and total anomaly. His highest previous batting average was .287 and his slugging percentage was .16 higher than his previous best. Guess what stat I'm going to link to next! That's right, Batting Average On Balls In Play!!!

BABIP explains almost every single seemingly inexplicable fluctuation in batting average from year to year. It keeps track of how many balls a player puts into the field of play that become hits (or outs). A typical BABIP is between .290 and .300, meaning that only 3/10 times, a ball redirected into play becomes a base hit.

Last year, Posada's BABIP was a stratospheric .386, when his highest previous was .303. Where the ball goes after it makes contact with the bat, it in almost entirely luck. Hence, if someone has an incredible spike in BA (or drop, ehem, CANO) from year to year, it's mostly dictated by the Baseball Gods. Yes, a hitter can direct the ball to one side of the field or another to some extent, but as far as finding a hole, it's a crapshoot.

I'll bet either of you two people who read this blog $50 that Posada doesn't bat over .300 again for the rest of his career (The first person to take the bet in the comments is in. We can iron out details later). If I lose, it will be the best $50 I've ever spent.

Hip Hip Jorge has been said to be the take-charge type of guy that Derek Jeter isn't, getting in guy's faces and not taking any shit. Maybe Robinson Cano wouldn't have needed to get benched by Joe Girardi to realize he wasn't that much more valuable than Jason Varitek last season.

Posada's attempts to right the universe aren't confined to the clubhouse. His son, Jorge Jr. who is 10 years old, suffers from a rare disease called craniosynostosis which inhibits brain growth in infants. His foundation "provides support to families whose child is affected by Craniosynostosis, a congenital or birth defect that causes an abnormally shaped skull." You can donate here.

Get well Jorge, we need you. The Yankees team that's going to win the World Series this year has you behind the plate.

Yeah, that one deserves some color.