This Never Would Have Happened If Posada Was Driving

The only way this could be a better metaphor for Game 5 of the World Series is if it happened in front of McFadden's (h/t BBTF):

"[Molina] was heading north on River Road with two other passengers to pick up his belongings at the stadium when he smelled something burning," said Edgewater Fire Chief Joe Chevalier. "When he saw smoke, he pulled over at the Mariner and someone from the marina came over with an extinguisher but it was no use."

Shortly after, Chevalier arrived on the scene to find the SUV fully engulfed in flames just inside the entrance to the Edgewater Mariner.

Let's try that again:

"[Molina] was [starting in Game 5 of the World Series] for [the Yankees] to pick up [their 27th Championship] at [Citizen's Bank Park] when he smelled something burning," said [Yankees pitching coach Dave Eiland]. "When he saw smoke, he [made a mound visit] and someone from the [dugout] came over with an extinguisher but it was no use."

Shortly after, [Joe Girardi] arrived on the scene to find [A.J. Burnett] fully engulfed in flames just inside the entrance to the [third inning].

In the latter scenario, it would have been Chase Utley that started the blaze.

The Search For Mo's Best Streak

As I noted in last night's recap, Mariano Rivera converted his 32nd consecutive save opportunity last night dating back to April 29th, a set a new career high. This streak includes 43 appearances, during which he had a ERA of 1.85 and a K/BB ratio of 46/8. However, this span also included two losses (both to the Rays) one in which he gave up two homers and the other where he allowed 4 runs (3 earned).

As we all know, the save is an arbitrary and flawed statistic, so I was curious find out how this stretch stacked up with others in his career and what his finest streak really was. Using Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index Streak Finder (you can subscribe to the PI for $5/month or $30/year), I started running some queries.

It turns out that Mo has had eerily similar runs starting sometime in April and running to various points throughout August in four out of the last 5 years.

In the months of May, June and July over the past 5 years he's blown ONE SAVE, on June 17th, 2006 against the Nationals. Chew on that for a second. 15 months of baseball, one blown save. 133 save chances, 132 saves. It's sort of cherry picking months of the season, and he's had some difficulties in non-save situations over that span, but he has been incomparable at locking down wins once he hits his stride in the season. And he was 35 years old in 2005.

Every year, he has some rough patches in April, when he's still finding his grove which cause people to get panicky. And he hits a couple of bumps in the road in August when the 40 something appearances he's accrued start to catch up with his arm, which cause others to wonder if there's something wrong with him, but there never is. You could set your watch to the guy. He's a man-chine.

If you look at those streaks, it's clear that the one in 2005, which he just "surpassed" in terms of saves, was the best. He had a 0.71 ERA, allowed just 31 hits and 8 walks in 50 2/3 IP (0.769 WHIP) and struck out 56. The 2008 version was also slightly better since he pitched more innings to a lower ERA.

It all depends on how you want to slice it. He had a streak of 88 games from April of '97 to July of '98 where he didn't give up more than more earned run in any appearance and had a 1.40 ERA. He did blow 9 saves and take 3 losses, but never both in the same game. During 71 outings from June 2003 to May 2004, he also didn't give up more than one ER at a time over that stretch and had only 5 blown saves and two losses.

There was one other streak without a blown save which spanned two seasons, which didn't fit in with the April/August iterations above, and it actually turns out to be the best of them all.

During this one, he went 44 appearances and 52 1/3 IP without a blown save or a loss, including the 12 1/3 IP in the postseason. As part of that run, from July 22nd, 1999 through the sweep of the Braves in the World Series, over 36 games and 43 IP, he didn't allow a single run. It's also worth noting that the current streak only includes 32 saves while this one has 33.

I believe that's the winner, folks. I'm guessing there has never been another streak like it, which included a scoreless postseason and World Series victory, but you're more than welcome to pony up the $5 to B-R, pull up the Streak Finder and try to prove me wrong.

This Just In: You Can't Win Them All

[Photos via]

Well, it happened. The Yanks lost, but it wasn't because they came out flat, or played sloppily or couldn't score runs. The one person to blame for tonight's loss, and I know that there are a lot of people who were involved, was Sergio Mitre, and he played no part in the Red Sox series.

The starting rotation's weakest link actually started out remarkably well, striking out six of the first 7 batters he faced. In his previous four starts Mitre had only struck out 9. Derek Jeter gave him a small cushion to work with by leading off the bottom of the first with a home run, but Mitre gave it back in the 3rd on a homer by Aaron Hill that bounced off the top of the wall in front of the opposing bullpen. Jeter scored again in the home half of the 3rd on a sac fly by Swisher to give the Yankees the lead, but Mitre once again faltered.

The turning point of the game came in the top of the 4th. After Lyle Overbay walked and Vernon Wells singled, Jose Bautista came to the plate with men on first and second. He hit a sharp bouncer back to Mitre, who made a beautiful snare and looked to be in position to turn a double play. Instead, he hesitated for a moment, took a few steps up the mound and fired a throw towards Robinson Cano standing at second. The throw started tailing towards first base and with the runner bearing down and perhaps with the double play in mind, Cano briefly took his eye off the ball. It glanced off his glove and rolled past, allowing Overbay to score and Wells to move to third.

Instead of having at least one and possibly two outs, the Yanks now had no one out, one run in with runners on the corners. The error was initially charged to Robinson Cano but then transferred to Mitre. The Jays brought Wells and Bautista around to score before the inning was over and took the lead 4-1.

As was the signature of the series with the Red Sox, the Yankees responded to the Jays immediately, as they had done in the 3rd. Robinson Cano led off the inning with a blast to right center which was followed by Jerry Hairston's first round tripper as a Yankee. Marc Rzcepczynski lasted on 3 1/3 innings and gave up four runs, but was never on the hook for the loss due to Mitre's shortcomings.

Lyle Overbay hit a two out solo shot in the fifth inning that would prove to be the difference in the game. With the count full, Mitre left a sinker in the fat part of the plate and Overbay pummeled it, just short of the right field bleachers.

The Yanks led off the 6th and 7th with hits, but just couldn't seem to level the score. To begin the 8th inning, Jorge Posada engaged with a 12 pitch battle with Jesse Carlson, which ended on Posada swinging through a slider the third time in a row Carlson had thrown it. Hideki Matsui singled in the 9th but that was the end of the Yanks' offense for the night.

While the Jays cycled through four relievers to close out the game without allowing another run, the Yanks needed only one. Blog favorite Alfredo Aceves notched only one strikeout in the four innings but he allowed just two hits and didn't walk anyone. According to ESPN radio after the game, Joe Girardi said that Mitre will make his next start, which may or may not prevent the speculation that Aceves was being stretched out to start.

A loss is always bad, especially when the Red Sox win, but tonight wasn't especially brutal. The Yanks had some chances but didn't capitalize against the Jays' pen. With the Yanks' relievers having been so lights out recently, it was only a matter of time before the tables were turned on them.

Not Going To Lie...

When I saw Chad Gaudin warming up last night, I thought to myself, "That's Chad Gaudin?"

It turns out that everytime someone said something about Gaudin, I was actually picturing Gustavo Chacin. Coincidentally, the two were teammates with the Blue Jays back in 2005 and once appeared in the same game, with Gaudin coming on in relief of Chacin. I probably should have known that Gaudin was the guy with the terrible beard/goatee who looks like Mose Schrute and Chacin was the lefthanded weirdo with the Rec Specs. But if you reverse one of their initals, their last names are pretty similar and... yeah, I'm an idiot.

Game 34: Acadian Driftwood

It's not everyday you see a match-up of 6' 7" left-handed pitchers.

This will be the sixth start of the season for 31 year old Brain Tallet. In his three previous seasons as a Blue Jay, Tallet only only made one other start and you'd have to go all the way back to his time with Cleveland in 2003 to find another. He's been solid as a reliever for the Jays, especially last year, when he threw 56.1 innings to a 2.88 ERA, but the injuries to their staff this season forced him into the rotation on April 18th. For the time being, it looks like he's there to stay:

"They (management) do have to make a decision and it's tough to take him out of the rotation now," Jays manager Cito Gaston said of Tallet. "I'd like to have another lefty in the bullpen, but if he continues to pitch the way he has, there's no reason to take him out of the rotation."

His ERA sits at 4.95, but that is severely inflated by one hellacious outing against Kansas City during which he gave up 10 ER in 4 innings. Since then, he's lasted 7 innings in each of his two starts and allowed only 10 baserunners combined.

Of course, jumping the bump for the Yanks tonight will be CC Sabathia. When last seen, Sabathia was letting out a primal scream in Baltimore after throwing a complete game shutout to stop the Yankees' five game skid. They are 2-2 and since then. His second complete game of the year (the first in a losing effort) brought his ERA under 4.00 but CC's won-lost record is still 2-3. After issuing 14 walks in his first four starts, he has given up only 2 in his past three. It seems as though the Hefty Lefty (we can use that for him now that Jared Lorenzen is gone from the Giants, yes?) is starting to hit his stride. 

-----

As the Yanks head out of Canada and back to New York tonight, I thought it would be appropriate to bust out Acadian Driftwood by The Band. As is the case with some of their other songs, this one is based on historical events, even though the lyrics take some liberties at times. 

Acadia was a French Colony in Canada founded in 1604 which consisted of the modern-day Maritime Provinces, Eastern Quebec, and parts of New England. The colony changed hands numerous times, going from France to The Netherlands to England, back to France. In 1755, at the beginning of the Seven Years War, if Acadians did not swear allegiance to the English crown, they were forcefully deported throughout the American colonies. 

Robbie Robertson (a Toronto native) was the one who wrote the lyrics and did so from a first person historical narrative, similar to The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down (except, unlike "Virgil Kane", the narrator is never named). The It's a pretty long song, but this article provides a thorough breakdown of the background behind it and an assessment of the historical validity of it line by line. 

Everlasting summer filled with ill-content,

This government had us walkin' in chains,
This isn't my turf,
This ain't my season,
Can't think of one good reason to remain.

[...]

Acadian driftwood,
Gypsy tail wind,
They call my home the land of snow,
Canadian cold front movin' in,
What a way to ride,
Ah, what a way to go.

Big Innings

Last night, as the runs started to pile up in the second inning, I'm pretty sure all Yankee fans were thinking essentially the same thing, "Here we go again". There was a mix of bad luck, bad pitching, bad defense, and lack of focus. I said bad luck first because Luke Scott's single to lead off the inning only got through because Cano was shifted towards first. Teixeira narrowly missed two balls hit at him. Aubrey Huff's homer was a good breaking ball at his shoelaces that he somehow awkwardly jerked over the right field scoreboard.

Regardless of how these big innings are coming to be, this is becoming a trend for this team. The Yankees have been outscored 167-190 this year and a major part of that is the fact that they have gotten tagged for a ton of train wreck innings, but have largely been unable to return the favor.

The Yanks have been outscored 81-37 in these sitauations, more than making up for their negative run differential.

What is causing this? I've identified some contributing factors:

• Chien Ming Wang - Wang is responsible for four of these innings, which account for 22 runs. In relief of Wang against the Indians, Anthony Claggett allowed 6 more earned runs, bringing that total to 28.
  
  
• Situational Hitting - With runners in scoring position, opponents are hitting .321, which is better than any team in the MLB. By contrast, the Yanks are hitting .245, 20th in the league. With two outs and RISP, the Yankees are at .238 with a .795 OPS, while allowing .289 & .904 to the opposition.
  
  
• Walks - Yankee relievers are walking 4.5 men per nine innings pitched (starters 3.7), even though Mariano Rivera has pitched 11 innings and has given up none. Take Mo out of the equation and the average jumps to 5.1. The biggest culprits are Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez, who have pitched a combined 30 innings and walked 22. The bullpen is striking out almost one guy an inning, but it's not enough to neutralize all the walks.
  
  
• + Hits - As a team they are also allowing more than a hit per inning, amounting to a WHIP of 1.526, fourth worst in the MLB. More baserunners prolong innings, and set the table for...
  
  
• Home Runs - Pinstriped pitchers have allowed 43 long balls this year, second only to the Orioles with 49. Their Home Run/Fly Ball ratio is 10.6%, tied with the O's for the worst in the AL by a full two percent. Camden Yards is a notorious bandbox and it's certainly starting to look like the New Stadium is as well. I've been reluctant to jump on this bandwagon, but they have allowed four more dingers at home in four fewer games (1.84 per game to 1.17). Our buddy Simon recently took a closer look at some of the cheap homers from Thursday's game. Where there is smoke, there is fire.

Some of those factors project to improve over time. Chien Ming Wang has already taken a little "injury" hiatus. He will be back at some point and there's pretty much no chance he will be as bad as he was to begin the season. And if he is, he won't be around for long. Situational hitting, especially disparities that drastic, should regress to the mean as well.

However, the bullpen is starting to become a serious problem. I've been critical of Girardi's handling of it so far, saying he has been mixing and matching too much. The stats bear this out. The Yankees are second in the AL only to the Rays is number of appearances by pitchers totalling less than three outs, with 33. The difference is that the Rays have match-up specialists like Brian Shouse, and J.P. Howell who can, you know, actually get guys out. Their bullpen ERA is also over a run and a half lower, so whatever Joe Maddon is doing seems to be working. It's not all Girardi's fault, obviously, the pitchers should be doing a better job.

Right now, the Yankees have the worst ERA in baseball and getting A-Rod back isn't going to help that either.

That Baseballing Contest Was Most Unpleasant To Witness!

Can anyone explain this to me? Why, why, why, why would Joe Girardi, when Jonathan Albaledejo was 0-1 on Jacoby Ellsbury, bring in Mariano Rivera for one out in the bottom of the eighth inning? Alby had already got three easy outs (one in the 7th) before accidentally nipping Nick Green on the thigh with a 0-2 two-seam fastball that moved in just a little too much. Joe let him stay on the mound, throw over to first, and even get ahead on Ellsbury. Then, to every one's surprise, he walked out to the mound, talked to Jon for a second and tapped his right arm.

I like Girardi as a manager. I was fully on board with his hiring. But all this meddling with the bullpen is not only frustrating to watch, it's costing the Yankees games.

In a 4-2 game, Ellsbury represented the tying run. This year he has TWO doubles, ZERO triples or home runs and is slugging .304. What was Joe worried about? The count was already 0-1. Why not let Albaledejo try and get through this at bat? Because even if he did get a hit, chances are it would have been a single, which would not have scored Nick Green from first.

I'm not against using Rivera for more than three outs. That's one of the many abilities he has that separates him from other closers of this era. But there is no justification for bringing him in the 8th last night to face a shitty hitter. It was at someone else's expense as well. You can see the look on Albaledejo face. He looks dejected... embarrassed, even. He was throwing well and got pulled in the middle of a fucking at-bat for no good reason in Fenway park. Can you blame him?

I can't help but wonder if Alby got that out, and Mariano was reserved for the 9th inning that perhaps this wouldn't have happened:

Maybe this comes across as second guessing, but it was mind boggling at the time and it's not the first occasion this year when his bullpen management has squandered a late lead.

After Bay hit that home run, there was sense of inevitability to the outcome. Although the home team's advantage in extra innings is only 52/48, it feels much greater. The visiting team, in effect, has to play their hand first while the home team has the chance to respond. All it takes for the road team is one mistake, kind of like the one Damaso Marte made to Kevin Fackin' Youkilis.


/punches self in face repeatedly

What To Make Of Mo

2008 was the best season of Mariano Rivera's career. Surprising? It was to me...

His save total was only 6th highest, but he had his lowest ERA, WHIP, highest ERA+, and best K/BB ratio in his 14 years in the Major Leagues. He only walked SIX batters in SEVENTY AND TWO THIRDS INNINGS while striking out seventy seven. 12.8 would be a sick K/9 ratio, but that was his K/BB ratio. (his K/9 was actually slightly lower at 9.8). Frankie Rodriguez might have tallied 62 saves and overshadowed Mo, but his WHIP and K/BB ratios were significantly worse than Rivera's worst season. Which was 2007.

Rivera and Jorge Posada both signed massive contracts (especially compared to the ones being signed this offseason) last year at the ages of 37 and 35, respectively. The older of the two men had his most valuable season as a Yankee, while the younger chap has his least. Both had shoulder surgery over the offseason performed by Mets' doctor David Altchek, but Jorge's was far more serious. Mo had some calcification removed from this right shoulder joint, while Posada's procedure was to repair his glenoid labrum.

Mo is a completely unique case. There is no precedent set for a 39 year old (predominantly) one pitch reliever who just posted his worst and best seasons as a professional back to back. Statistically, relievers are much more prone to sharp declines because one three run homer (like Marco Scutaro's dinger off the foul pole in Oakland in 2007) in a 70 inning season takes an ERA from 1.80 to 2.19. A couple bad outings and you are looking a drastically worsened statistical profile.

Am I worried about Mo? Yeah, a little bit. Although it was a minor surgery, he still went under the knife. Rivera is such a finely tuned man-chine you get the feeling that he could make the necessary adjustments. He is ubiqutously revered by Yankees fans and feared by those of opposing teams. He's been so good for so long that it's easy to take him for granted, but some point he is going to enter a decline phase.

For the heck of it, here is my prediction (barring injury):

72IP, 2.25 ERA, 67K, 13BB, .975WHIP