The Cuban Pitcher Crisis

Prior to the start 1995 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Hideo Nomo, who had "retired" from his Japanese club in order to become a free agent. Nomo became just the second Japanese native to play in the Major Leagues and the first in more than thirty years. Nomo had a wildly successful rookie campaign, serving as the ace of the Dodgers' NL West winning staff and taking Rookie of the Year honors while posting a 150 ERA+ and leading the NL in shutouts, strikeouts, and K/9.

But in more than just his success on the field, Hideo Nomo was a revelation to the Dodgers. In a year that saw MLB attendance nosedive by about 20% in the wake of the 1994 strike, Dodger attendance dropped by only 7%. The Japanese-born Nomo drove Nomomania just as the Mexican born Fernando Valenzuela had driven Fernandomania 14 years earlier. And the Dodger realized the benefits between the lines, at the box office, in merchandising, and in national and international exposure.

At the time of Nomo's arrival, Major League baseball was already a diverse organization. Clubs had found successful reservoirs of talent in the States, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic, and to a lesser extent Canada, Mexico, Panama, even Nicaragua and Australia. Yet Japan, despite being a baseball-crazed nation with a well developed professional league, was a totally untapped resource. Part of that was due to Japan's restrictive player movement system, but another major factor was the old-boy-network of Major League Baseball in which the Japanese Leagues were deemed inferior. Nomo's success was a counterexample to that way of thinking and opened the door for more than forty Japanese-born players to reach the Majors with varying degrees of success since Nomo's debut.

While Nomo's rookie year may have opened the door for Japanese born players, there was still another country that was quite literally shut off from the Major Leagues. Cuba, less than one hundred miles from Key West and as passionate a baseball nation as any that graces the earth, has been subject to a U.S. embargo since 1960. So after Cuban born players like Tony Oliva, Bert Campaneris, Luis Tiant, Tony Perez and the like debuted in the 1960s, no Cuban-born players of consequence made it to the MLB for decades, except for those who emigrated at a young age such as Jose Canseco and Rafael Palmeiro.

That began to change at the same time Nomo came to the States. Cuban born pitcher Ariel Prieto emigrated to Puerto Rico after graduating college in Cuba. Because he chose to establish residency in Puerto Rico, he was subject to the draft and was chosen, with much fanfare, by the A's with the fifth overall pick in the 1995 draft.

That July, Livan Hernandez and Osvaldo Fernandez fled the Cuban National Team as well. However, they had the good sense to seek asylum in the Domincan Republic, thereby skirting the draft and earning themselves lucrative free agent deals. From there the floodgates opened: Rey Ordonez, Rolando Arrojo, Orlando Hernandez, Danys Baez, Adrian Hernandez, Jose Contreras, Yuniesky Betancourt, etc.

All of these players hit the open market with some degree of buzz about them. Some lived up to the billing (El Duque), some have carved out lengthy if average careers for themselves (Livan Hernandez), many utterly failed to live up to hype (Prieto, Arrojo, Contreras, Adrian Hernandez, etc.).

That isn't a knock against Cuban players. Projecting Major League talent is an inexact science, whether it's in evaluating high school or college players, sixteen year olds in Latin America, or even Japanese players from well established professional leagues. Cuban players are particularly challenging to evaluate. Because of the embargo it's difficult to scout them outside of occasional international competition. Unlike the Japanese leagues, Cuban players don't routinely compete against former Major Leaguers who can give some insight to their talent level. There is very little data on which to evaluate Cuban talent, and what little exists is highly unreliable.

But I think that Japanese and Cuban players, because they're something of a novelty and because they've been exposed to higher quality competition than other talent available to Major League clubs, are afforded more hype, and as such get rather large contracts when they sign.

The Yankees should be no stranger to this. They were in on Prieto before MLB ruled he was subject to the draft. They were in on Livan Hernadez and Osvaldo Fernadez before they signed with the Marlins and Giants respectively. They've signed Orlando Hernandez, Adrian Hernandez, Andy Morales, Jose Contreras, and Juan Miranda - with varying degrees of success. El Duque was worth every penny; El Duquecito never panned out. Andy Morales was found to have lied about his age, spent one miserable season in AA, and was released. Jose Contreras may have been traded away for pennies on the dollar, but he also never sustained anything remotely justifying the hype that surrounded his arrival and was exceedingly frustrating to watch. Miranda has shown signs of promise, but is buried behind Mark Teixeira and likely won't get a shot with the Yankees.

All of which is well worth keeping in mind as the Aroldis Chapman talk heats up over the next several weeks. The Yankees are clearly in on Chapman. They're linked in virtually every rumor about him, and hosted him at Yankee Stadium during the clinching Game Six of the ALCS. He is easily the most heralded player to come out of Cuba since - well, take your pick - Prieto, Livan, Arrojo, El Duque, Baez, Contreras, whoever. Chapman could prove to be the best Cuban hurler since Luis Tiant or Mike Cuellar, or even Fidel Castro himself.

If he's half as good as he's been hyped to be, it shouldn't be difficult for him to surpass the Cuban pitchers of the last 15 years. But whoever signs Chapman is going to have to pay a hefty price to find out if he's as good as billed. Given the track record of recent Cuban exports, especially considering their performance relative to how good they've been purported to be, I'd be very hesitant to give Chapman the dollars he will command.

Cano's Bad Night

Last night was a great win, and Robinson Cano probably couldn't be happier. His atrocious effort got overshadowed by the Yankees winning their fifth straight game and Mariano Rivera notching his 500th save and doing something Cano couldn't last night - see more than three pitches in an at bat and get on base. But since today is a relatively slow off day, we might as take closer look at just how bad Robby's night was:

• 1st inning: With no one out and runners on first and second, Robby grounded the third pitch he saw to Luis Castillo, who flipped to Alex Cora who fired to first base. The Mets probably would have had the double play at first base if Daniel Murphy had held onto the ball, but instead settled for the force out. Not content with being on base, Cano was caught stealing to end the inning. In his career, he has 16 stolen bases and has been caught 17 times.
  
  
• 4th inning: After A-Rod led off with a single, Cano rapped a blistering 83MPH fastball again to Castillo, but this time Murphy held onto the relay from Cora for a successful double play. Two more pitches, two more outs.
  
  
• 6th inning: With men on second and third and one out, Hernandez intentionally walked A-Rod to get to Cano. On the strength of the two ground balls Livan had induced from Cano earlier in the game, Jerry Manuel took the risk of loading the bases to create the possibility of a double play. Robby took two balls this time, before reversing the third pitch he saw towards Alex Cora for the DP the Mets were hoping for.
  
  
• 8th inning: Once again with the bases loaded, but this time with two out, Livan Hernandez had seemingly lost his command. He had thrown 18 pitches and only four for strikes. Cano took two balls but grounded the third one to Castillo to end the inning. Had there been less than two outs, it might have been another double play.

Add that all up and what do you get? A -.304 WPA. That means having Cano in the line up yesterday made the Yankees 30% more likely to lose. In four plate appearances, he saw only 14 pitches and made 7 outs (one on the basepaths). A-Rod got on base 4 times in front of him and never made it safely to second. He came to the plate with 9 runners on base and none of them scored. He was the biggest (only?) reason that Livan Hernandez wasn't lit up like a Christmas tree last night.

Cano's biggest strength - his ability to make contact and put the ball in play - can also be his greatest weakness. He rarely works the count because he knows he can hit almost anything that is thrown is his general vicinity. As a result, he's going to have nights like this one, where he chalks up four hits in as many plate appearances, but will also have abysmal outings like last night. When you constantly put the ball in play, you rely on probability, which is why Cano is not only a streaky hitter from game to game, but year to year.

This season, he's on pace for 195 hits, but only 32 walks and 50 strikeouts. Unfortunately that pace also predicts 22 GIDP, will probably put him near the top 5 in the league in that category. Strikeouts are bad, but they are great compared to double plays.

As much as we'd love to see Cano improve his plate discipline, most statistical evidence indicates that patience isn't something hitters develop; they either come into the league with the mindset to get on base or don't. Last night was pretty lucky for the Yanks. They absorbed what might be the single worst night of Cano's season and still came away with the win. And in the end, that's all that really matters.

Five Straight And Five Hundred

After getting blanked by Tommy Hanson and the Braves last Tuesday, the Yankees had lost three in a row and five of their last six. The bats were dormant, mustering only 13 runs over that stretch. Since then they've ripped off five wins in a row, outscoring their opponents 37-13. Not coincidentally, over that time, A-Rod has seemingly found his groove again, picking up 7 hits, 9 walks and driving in 9 runs during the streak.

The Yanks hit the ground running in the first inning against Livan Hernandez with a double by Derek Jeter high off the wall in left center field, a shot which would have left most other MLB parks. Next up, batting in place of the flu-stricken Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher pulled a ball to the right side which Daniel Murphy inadvisably threw to third in an attempt to nab the lead runner. Instead of taking the easy out at first, both runners were safe. Mark Teixiera took the opportunity to bust a double to left, driving in both Jeter and Swish. Still no one out.

A-Rod worked one of his three walks of the evening then Robby Cano bounced into a force out which moved Teixeria over to third. Jorge Posada brought him home on a sac fly and provided Chien Ming Wang with some room to maneuver.

Wang kept the Mets off the board until the 4th inning. Gary Sheffield worked a lead off walk and was driven home by a Fernando Martinez double two batters later. Luis Castillo then drove home Martinez with a single to left before the inning was over.

Wang wasn't very sharp, but made it to the sixth inning having thrown a reasonable 80 pitches and allowing only the two runs in the fourth. Sheff reached base for the third time in as many at bats against Wang, this time via a single to lead off the inning. In a rather sad testament to the state of the Mets line up right now, their number five hitter Fernando Tatis laid down a sac bunt to advance Sheff to second base down by one run in the sixth inning. Joe Girardi then called on Phil Coke to face Fernando Martinez, ending Chien Ming Wang's night short of that elusive quality start, but in line for a victory nonetheless.

Coke struck out F-Mart at which point Jerry Manuel called on Omir Santos to pinch hit for Brian Schnieder. Joe Girardi countered by calling on Phil Hughes. These kinds of "strategic moves" make me happy that interleauge play is over. I hate pinch hitters and excessive calls to the bullpen predicated on match ups. Managers feel obligated to respond to the opposing manager's moves, lest they open themselves to being second guessed. I personally think that a pitcher striking out the batter before is a better predictor of success than which arm he uses to throw the ball. This season (and pretty much every other one), the platoon splits amount to just a few percent, an advantage that could easily be negated by having to bring in a new pitcher out of the bullpen.

Managers are under pressure to make the decision that is perceived to be rational, not necessarily the one that is rational. If they fail making the conventional decision, it's much more tolerable than if they go against the grain and unfortunately, the former typically happens to be a giant waste of everyone's time. Anyway, the move worked out as Hughes retired Santos and came back out to pitch a scoreless seventh inning.

When people talk about this game months and years down the line, which they certainly will, no one will mention that Brian Bruney's inability to throw strikes set the table for one of the most memorable milestone achievement games I can remember. In the process of getting two outs, Bruney issued walks to David Wright and Fernando Tatis. With men on first and second, Mariano Rivera was called on for a four out save. After an 8 pitch at bat which included four foul balls, Mo caught Santos looking on a strike that just tickled the inside corner.

The pitcher's spot was due up 6th in the inning, but unlike when Mo batted in Atlanta, it was obvious he would stay in when it was his time to hop into the on-deck circle. However, with Jeter facing K-Rod, Girardi sent up Francisco Cervelli to pretend as if he was going to hit for Rivera, which didn't fool anyone. After curiously dropping the first pitch to DJ for a strike, K-Rod threw four straight balls (two intentional) to create the rare match up of a closer facing a closer.

Standing in the box wearing Cody Ransom's batting helmet, Mo took the first two pitches for balls, causing a collective groan at Citi Field. The next pitches were fastballs called as strikes, as Rivera didn't flinch; his clear intention was to get on base the easy way, if possible. With the count level at 2-2, K-Rod dialed it up a bit and tossed a four-seamer down Broadway. Mo unleashed a vicious cut, fouling it back. Perhaps the hack got in K-Rod's head because he failed to deliver another strike and instead walked Rivera to force in a run. It was the first RBI of his career.

Then came the bottom of the ninth, when Mo did what Mo pretty much always does.

In fitting fashion, it was a four out save with two strikeouts and only one hit. Trevor Hoffman might have 71 more saves than Rivera, but he hasn't had an appearance which lasted longer than one inning since 2004 (and that wasn't a save). Fitting too that Mo's RBI came against K-Rod, one of the few active relievers with a chance to compile career statistics anywhere near Rivera's. Even more so when you consider that it came via a walk, a demon that K-Rod can't quite seem to tame and one that is all but a non-issue to Rivera.

Even when it appears to be beyond his control, the moments seem to find Mariano. During the inning, promos for Mo's Sunday Conversation on SportsCenter ran and there was preemptive talk about what it would mean for Rivera to convert his 500th save.

You can tell yourself to savor this moment. You can remind yourself that 500 saves makes 300 wins seem commonplace by comparison. You can try to let the fact that we are watching the greatest of all time do his thing on a semi-nightly basis, but there's no way to fully appreciate someone like Rivera when he's actually in motion. Full reflection requires observation at a distance, something which we all hope doesn't come for quite some time.

Congrats Mo, and many more.

Game 75: I Wish You Wouldn't Say That

For the players, it seems, being on Sunday Night Baseball is a fairly big deal. Only once a week during the regular season does the baseball world grind to halt and showcase two teams in a nationally televised game without any others running concurrently. The ESPN banners get put up on the packed camera wells down the first and third baselines and the personalities of the Worldwide Leader in Sports roam the clubhouses. The atmosphere is at the ballpark is undoubtedly elevated

Conversely, most fans at home dread Sunday Night Baseball. It might be because they have to wait until 8PM to watch their team play and it keeps them up later than they'd like. It's probably not because it overlaps with Law and Order SVU or Extreme Makeover: Home Edition or Million Dollar Password, although that might be part of it. It doesn't matter to Yankees fans that the team gets national exposure, because if anything, there's already too much of that. I think you know where I'm going with this.

Jon Miller and Al Michaels are both smooth and competent play by play guys who do their job and set the table the Joe Morgan and John Madden, respectively. For all the fun that people have at Madden's expense, I think most can agree that that his understanding of the game of football runs far deeper than the average fan's, even if in his effort to transmit it, all the clumsy chuckles and "booms" get in the way. That has never seemed to be the case with Joe Morgan. Plenty of man hours have been dedicated to explaining how and why Morgan is a terrible baseball analyst and an even worse broadcaster. He's overly nostalgic and unabashedly anti-intellectual and it comes across crystal clear in every broadcast, but I think the real difference between the two guys comes down to the differences between the sports.

Baseball is easy to digest because it unfolds slowly in front of you, one play at a time. The average viewer doesn't need to have an RBI double to left center broken down by the TV crew in order to understand what is happening. The best broadcasters provide context when it's necessary, but otherwise step aside and let the game unfold. Each play in football, on the other hand, occurs like an explosion, while the announcers work frantically in between snaps to piece together what happened.

Since baseball is played 6 or 7 days a week, fans are much more familiar with the team than the broadcast team who is stopping by to do just one game. The context is far more important to fans and the Sunday Night Baseball crew, as it is currently composed, it's terrible at providing any sort of valuable insight as to how this game fits into the season thus far. Instead Morgan tries too often to relate what's happening to his own playing experience and the newly added Steve Phillips offers insipid big picture "insights" that are either factually incorrect or painfully obvious to any regular follower of either of the teams involved.

Yes, the broadcast is meant for a national audience, but it's at the expense of the fans of the teams on the field. I'm not Michael Kay's biggest fan, but listening to a Yankee game with him behind the mic is infinitely more enjoyable than one with the ESPN crew.

Tonight, expect Miller and Morgan to laud the Mets for signing Livan Hernandez and point to his 5-2 record and 4.05 ERA as proof that he is in the middle of a resurrection. Never mind the fact that last year he started out 6-1 with a 3.90 in Minnesota before watching his ERA balloon two runs northward, his WHIP expand to 1.667 before getting DFA'd. His numbers might look decent right now but Livan is only one start away from being the rubber-armed base hit machine he's been for the last three years of his career.

Don't expect any grand insights into Chien Ming Wang's lack of success this year aside from his inability to "keep the sinker down" and recover from his foot injury last year. Wang has taken small steps towards being not historically terrible, coming off of back to back 5 inning, 6 hit, 3 run, four strikeout outings against fellow National League East members Washington and Atlanta. Perhaps the spacious confines of Citi Field will be home to Wang's first quality start of the season.

Derek Jeter returns to the line up tonight, but Johnny Damon is still down with the flu.

Miller and Morgan aren't so much "talking heads" as "disembodied voices", but you get the idea...

There are places that I won't forget,
And I guess I'm never going back,
Guess it's information that I lack,
I've told lies without a hint or regret.

Game 61: Comin' Home

It might be an elitist, corporate bandbox, but the Yankees come home to it tonight after a short but wildly unsuccessful trip to Beantown.

Trying to get the Yanks back on track tonight will be Joba Chamberlain. His ERA has been hovering in the upper 3's since the beginning of May and he enters tonight at 3.79 with a 3-1 record. He's made 11 starts this year, meaning that in 7 of them, he's earned a no decision. Much of that can be attributed to the fact that he doesn't go very deep into games, but he's put up three quality starts in which either the Yanks bullpen has let him down or the offense has picked him up. The momentum from his 8 inning effort in Cleveland was slightly dissipated by his six inning, three run outing against the Rays, but he allowed one baserunner or fewer in each of those outings.

On the offensive side of things, Johnny Damon is out of the line up for assorted reasons, one of which being, wait for it... his eyesight. We just might be back tomorrow with another eye chart. This means that Nick Swisher is starting in RF again, and hopefully he won't be making ridiculous and unnecessary dives into the stands, getting doubled off of second or just straight up missing catchable balls.

The Mets are sporting a somewhat diminished line-up tonight with Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes on the DL, but the DH slot allows them to put Gary Sheffield in the batting order while starting Fernando Martinez in LF.

The Metropolitans send Livan Hernandez to the hill tonight, who has been surprisingly, scratch that, "Amazin'ly" good so far this season. After a rocky first four starts left him with a 6.75ERA, that number has been steadily declining to where it sits now, 3.88. He's given up only 5 runs in his last four outings, averaging over 7 innings per. Never one to shy away from contact, Livan strikes out only 5.3/9IP and is giving up over a hit per inning with a WHIP of 1.369. He doesn't give up a whole lot of long balls either, only 7 in 67 1/3 innings. For a guy who had an ERA of 6.05 in 31 starts last year, he's doing pretty well for himself. That said, if I was a Mets fan, I'd be a little nervous about him pitching in the New Yankee Stadium.

As a quick illustration of the differences between the two teams this year, the Mets have hit only 37 homers this year compared to 95 by the Bombers, but they lead the ERA battle 3.94 to 4.85. This could be the accumulation of park effects, the difference between the leagues, but mostly it boils down to roster construction. The Yanks have gotten more out of their sluggers while the Mets have leaned more on their arms.

It should be interesting to see what wins out tonight, the pitching or the bats. Will the Mets' offense awaken at the New Stadium? Can the Yankees bust out of their terrible RISP slump? Will El Duque's brother be able to borrow some of his brother's Bronx magic? Can Joba take it deep without being taken deep? Tune in to find out, as Robinson Cano might say, "Honly on JES".

Hitchhiking on the turnpike all day long.
Nobody seemed to notice, they just pass me over.
To keep from going crazy, I got to sing my song.
Got a whole lot of loving and baby, thats why
Im comin home to your love.