Cano's Bad Night

Last night was a great win, and Robinson Cano probably couldn't be happier. His atrocious effort got overshadowed by the Yankees winning their fifth straight game and Mariano Rivera notching his 500th save and doing something Cano couldn't last night - see more than three pitches in an at bat and get on base. But since today is a relatively slow off day, we might as take closer look at just how bad Robby's night was:

• 1st inning: With no one out and runners on first and second, Robby grounded the third pitch he saw to Luis Castillo, who flipped to Alex Cora who fired to first base. The Mets probably would have had the double play at first base if Daniel Murphy had held onto the ball, but instead settled for the force out. Not content with being on base, Cano was caught stealing to end the inning. In his career, he has 16 stolen bases and has been caught 17 times.
  
  
• 4th inning: After A-Rod led off with a single, Cano rapped a blistering 83MPH fastball again to Castillo, but this time Murphy held onto the relay from Cora for a successful double play. Two more pitches, two more outs.
  
  
• 6th inning: With men on second and third and one out, Hernandez intentionally walked A-Rod to get to Cano. On the strength of the two ground balls Livan had induced from Cano earlier in the game, Jerry Manuel took the risk of loading the bases to create the possibility of a double play. Robby took two balls this time, before reversing the third pitch he saw towards Alex Cora for the DP the Mets were hoping for.
  
  
• 8th inning: Once again with the bases loaded, but this time with two out, Livan Hernandez had seemingly lost his command. He had thrown 18 pitches and only four for strikes. Cano took two balls but grounded the third one to Castillo to end the inning. Had there been less than two outs, it might have been another double play.

Add that all up and what do you get? A -.304 WPA. That means having Cano in the line up yesterday made the Yankees 30% more likely to lose. In four plate appearances, he saw only 14 pitches and made 7 outs (one on the basepaths). A-Rod got on base 4 times in front of him and never made it safely to second. He came to the plate with 9 runners on base and none of them scored. He was the biggest (only?) reason that Livan Hernandez wasn't lit up like a Christmas tree last night.

Cano's biggest strength - his ability to make contact and put the ball in play - can also be his greatest weakness. He rarely works the count because he knows he can hit almost anything that is thrown is his general vicinity. As a result, he's going to have nights like this one, where he chalks up four hits in as many plate appearances, but will also have abysmal outings like last night. When you constantly put the ball in play, you rely on probability, which is why Cano is not only a streaky hitter from game to game, but year to year.

This season, he's on pace for 195 hits, but only 32 walks and 50 strikeouts. Unfortunately that pace also predicts 22 GIDP, will probably put him near the top 5 in the league in that category. Strikeouts are bad, but they are great compared to double plays.

As much as we'd love to see Cano improve his plate discipline, most statistical evidence indicates that patience isn't something hitters develop; they either come into the league with the mindset to get on base or don't. Last night was pretty lucky for the Yanks. They absorbed what might be the single worst night of Cano's season and still came away with the win. And in the end, that's all that really matters.

Joba's Off Night

"I could go on for days and days to tell you how bad I was. Plain and simple, I was terrible. There's no getting around it. I've got to do a better job of keeping my team in the game and not try to battle myself the whole time." ~ Joba Chamberlain, talking about his performance last night

If you want to take a pessimistic look at what happened last night, there's plenty to get riled up about. Coming off of a game where a line drive hit his shin, Joba's fastball velocity was down, and he gave up nine baserunners in four innings. Scarsely more than half of his 84 pitches went for strikes. For the sixth time in nine starts, he allowed a home run. 

On the bright side, however, just as his career line would have predicted, Joba struck out more than one batter per inning. Joe Girardi could have very easily let Joba come back out for the bottom of the 5th, but chose the cautious route, allowing critics to point to the fact that he only lasted four frames. It wasn't like he was getting torched or had already hit 100 pitches. 

What's important to note is that Joba's bad outings are rarely that bad. He gave up 5 runs in 4 2/3 innings in his second start of the year and 4 runs in 5 2/3 against the Red Sox. Of course, neither of those two are going to pass for solid outings. But if you are going to have a bad start, it's obviously better not to give up many earned runs, regardless of how few innings are thrown. That way, the bullpen theoretically has a chance to keep the other team from scoring, even given how unlikley the Yanks' relievers have made that seem recently.

It's also heartening to hear a 23 year old take responsibility for a bad performance like he did in the quote above, something one Yankee prospect seemed to have quite a bit of trouble with. He didn't make excuses about the rain delay, the umpires' strike zone or bad luck. Even when things go wrong, Joba says the right things. After last night, his ERA is still 3.97 and he's been the second best starter on the Yankees.