Game 85 Recap

[Data via FG]

Highlights:

• In the wake of his victory in the Final Vote and resulting selection to the All-Star team, Nick Swisher had another big night, going 4-4 (two doubles) and a walk in addition to making a nice sliding catch in the 5th. One of those two-baggers set the table for A-Rod's game-winning hit in the ninth as it put runners on second and third with one out.
  
  
• Andy Pettitte was brilliant yet again, striking out nine in eight innings and allowing just one run. His only real rough patch came in the 6th. He gave up two straight singles to begin the frame and Ichiro dropped a bunt right in front of the plate. Pettitte fielded it cleanly but sailed the throw wide of first, allowing a run to score and the runners to move to second and third.
  
  There was still no one out at this point and it looked likely that the game would be blown wide open. However, Pettitte retired Chone Figgins, intentionally walked Franklin Gutierrez and then proceeded to strike out Russell Braynan and Jose Lopez to wriggle out of the jam with minimal damage.
  
  
• The Yanks put runners on first and second with no one out in the 8th on a walk by A-Rod and a single by Robby Cano. Jason Vargas uncorked a wild pitch and A-Rod moved to third, but Cano didn't take the opportunity to advance to second, possibly influenced by the batter, Jorge Posada initially gesturing for the runners to stay put. As it turns out, Posada grounded into a double play, which scored the run but shut down a further rally. It was a big mistake at the time, regardless of whose fault it was, but thankfully the Yanks got away with it when they got to Mariners' closer David Aardsma for the second time in just over a week.

Not In The Highlights:

• In the first inning, Ichrio was attempting to catch a pop up off the bat of Mark Texieira and bumped into a "fan", who was brushing her hair and proceeded to absolutely freak out and immediately text everyone she knows, "OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG ICHIRO LIKE TOUCHED ME!!!11!1!!!////".
  
  
• Seattle fans, apparently still bitter over him leaving the team ten fucking years ago, threw fake money at Alex Rodriguez when he game to bat in the 8th inning.
  
  
• The Yankees put at least one man on base in every inning last night, but didn't score until the 8th. Particularly frustrating were 1st (1st & 2nd, no outs) and 4th (1st & 2nd, one out). They were 1-11 with runners in scoring position and left 12 men on base.
  
  
• Brett Gardner was 0-4 with three strikeouts, but he did gun down Ichiro at third base in the first inning.
  
  
• Mark Teixeira had a pretty terrible night, hurting the Yanks chances of winning by 38%. he grounded into a double play in the first, and failed to get the runner in from third in the ninth when he popped out to the catcher. Luckily A-Rod was there to pick him up with a huge two out hit.

Up Next:

• Yet another late start as Phil Hughes takes on Cliff Lee.

Game 72 LOLcap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

Right out of the gate, last night's game had the feeling of one that would turn into an utter shitshow. It was exceedingly clear that Dontrelle Willis wasn't able to throw strikes when he walked Derek Jeter on four pitches and then allowed him to advance to second on a wild pitch in the process of going 3-1 on Nick Swisher. Swish singled to bring home the run and but when Willis ran the count full against Mark Teixeira, he left first too early and was picked off without even really trying to steal.

Teixeira walked on the next pitch and Alex Rodriguez watched four more balls fly by, the last of which went behind his ankles. That put runners on first and second for Robinson Cano who Willis proceeded to throw three straight balls to.

Just to review, at this point, Dontrelle had thrown 23 pitches and 18 of them were taken out of the strike zone. Not many of them were especially close. Cano was content to watch two fastballs slip in for strikes but swung at missed at the 3-2 pitch that was probably out of the zone. That's excusable, but Mark Teixeira got caught stealing third base to end the inning, which totally wasn't. The Yankees let a guy who threw more than twice as many balls as strikes in an inning escape with only one run allowed because they handed him two outs on the bases.

After that blown chance, Javy Vazquez started off the second by going walk-single-walk-single but was saved from allowing a run when the D-Backs third base coach attempted to make a late hold and left Kelly Johnson stranded on the way to home. Vazquez, who only had a little more control than Willis, then walked Miguel Montero to load the bases and after running the count full, gave up a two out, two run single to Adam LaRoche to put Arizona ahead 2-1.

Unfortunately, the horrible play didn't end there. Here's just a sampling of some of the other garbage that went down.

• Despite the fact that Willis obviously couldn't throw strikes, Francisco Cervelli bunted to lead off the second. MAKE HIM THROW THE BALL OVER THE PLATE FOR FUCK'S SAKE.
  
  
• Willis' seventh walk came with the bases loaded with one out in the third inning. However, the Yankees only scored one run that frame because Willis' replacement, Blaine Boyer, got Robinson Cano (the first batter he faced) to hit into an inning-ending double play.
  
  
• That was one of five DPs for the Yankees.
  
  
• Even with all of those twin killings, there were a total of 19 men left on base - 11 for the Yanks and 8 for the D-Backs - and the Bombers were 3/14 with runners in scoring position.
  
  
• The Yankees worked 13 walks, two of which were by Javy Vazquez.
  
  
• Javy eventually found the strikezone, but was done after five innings having given up four runs and with no chance to win the game.
  
  
• With two men on and one out in the fifth, Robinson Cano ripped a line drive to left but it Gerardo Parra made an incredible diving snag and got up in time to throw A-Rod out at first, ending the inning. Two of them weren't entirely his fault, but he was a part of three different inning-ending DPs.
  
  
• Damaso Marte was called for a balk in the sixth and then uncorked a wild pitch that put the go-ahead run on third with one out, and allowed him to score in the next at bat.

Despite the Snakes' best efforts to give it away, the Yanks were behind in this one until the ninth inning when Aaron Heilman began the frame with two walks. Teix moved the runners over with a grounder and A-Rod lofted the game-tying sac fly. With the opposing bullpen depleted and the game within striking distance, Joe Girardi went to Mariano Rivera, who worked a scoreless bottom half of the ninth.

Curtis Granderson led off the top of the 10th with a homer to right, so when Rivera's spot came up four batter's later, he made the plate appearance so that he could come back for his first two inning save this year.

Mo grounded out to first in his AB and immediately got into trouble in the bottom of the 10th. Clinging to a one run lead, he gave up a looping single to Stephen Drew and double down the left field line to Justin Upton. He then intentionally walked Montero to put a force at every base and the D-Backs looked to be in position to steal this one back. However, Rivera got Chris Young to pop out to the catcher, jammed Adam LaRoche in on his hands so that he skied it to third and struck out Mark Reynolds swinging to end the game.

After the game Mo really hit the nail on the head, saying:

We pulled this game [out] but we played horrible. It's unacceptable, the way that we played. We can't be playing games like that, you know? We are better than that, we are supposed to do what's right in baseball.

Oddly, it was a bit like the US Soccer Team's game in the World Cup. They blew an ungodly amount of opportunities but came back just in the nick of time and escaped by the skin of their teeth.

It was four hours and seven minutes long and uglier than Don Mossi, but at least the Yankees won. And not only did they win, but for the second night in a row, everyone else in the division lost, so they lead the Rays and Sawx by 2.5 games each.

Today is an off day before the team heads out to L.A. to meet up with old friends Joe Torre, Don Mattingly, Larry Bowa, Manny Ramirez and the rest of the Dodgers. Stay tuned for some posts about the history between the two teams today and tomorrow.

Game 45 Recap

This wasn't Andy Pettitte's best start of the season in terms of innings pitched and runs allowed, but it was probably his most impressive overall. Joe Mauer singled in a run in the first inning and Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young stacked up a single and a double for another in the seventh inning but Pettitte needed just 83 pitchers (a whopping 65 of them for strikes) to make it through those seven frames.

When Drew Butera led off the eight inning with a double just out of the reach of Brett Gardner, the game was still tied at two. Denard Span - who terrorized the Yanks in these two games, reaching base six times - then laid down a soft bunt towards third. The Yankees had the wheel play on, which put Alex Rodriguez in position to field the ball get Span at first, but A-Rod couldn't handle it and the Twins had runners on the corners with no one out. It seemed a forgone conclusion that the Twinkies would plate at least one run and take the lead heading into the top of the ninth.

Pettitte tried to keep Span close at first base with a pair of pick off attempts. With two double plays on the night already, Andy knew that a Twin-killing was his best chance at escaping the inning. He almost got an unexpected one on the second pitch of the at bat when Orlando Hudson looped a curveball right back over his head but Pettitte snared it with a full extension and whipped his head to third and then to first to see if the runners had strayed. They hadn't, but he was one step closer to getting out of the jam.

Although it was just one out and a well placed grounder or a deep enough fly ball would have given Minnesota the lead, there was a light at the end of the tunnel. A light considerably dimmed, however, by Joe Mauer standing directly in front of it.

The Yanks played in at the corners but left their middle infielders at double play depth and on the first pitch of the at bat, Pettitte threw a cutter low and away, hoping that Mauer would cue it off the end of the bat, but he didn't offer. Pettite then checked Span at first base with a pick off attempt and threw a cutter over the outside corner for a strike.

Cervelli set up almost comically inside on the next pitch, but Pettitte missed low to bring the count to 2-1. Another pickoff attempt. Pettitte proceeded to come back inside with another fastball that made Mauer to check his swing, but the pitch missed by the slimmest of margins and 3rd base umpire Chris Guccione said that Joe didn't go. That brought the count to a dangerous 3-1.

Pettitte and Cervelli then went back to the same pitch that they started Mauer with, except this time he did swing at it and grounded into an inning-ending 6-4-3 double play.

Andy might have missed some of his spots in that at bat by a bit, but he was either inside and off the plate or low and away out of the zone - two spots that even Mauer can't get good wood on. It was one of my favorite at bats of the year given that I was more or less resigned to Mauer or Morneau finding a way to drive in that run, but Pettitte, primarily by virtue of his ability to spot the ball, was able to get exactly what the Yanks needed in that spot.

Pettitte's Houdini-esque escape from that jam was rewarded in the 9th inning as Nick Swisher hit a two out, line drive blast off of Twins' closer Jon Rauch that left the yard in a hurry and gave the Yanks a 3-2 lead.

Although he had closed out the earlier game, Mariano Rivera came back to nail this one down as well. He induced three grounders from Morneau, Cuddyer and Young and the Yanks pulled off their second one run victory of the day.

There were other parts of this game that were worth of further exploration, namely Brett Gardner's RBI triple and Kevin Russo's run-scoring double and/or catch up against the wall, but those likely would have gone to waste if Pettitte wasn't able to wriggle out of that 8th inning jam.

It was a great win for the Yanks (both of them, actually) and they'll look to go for the sweep tomorrow night at 8.

Halfway To Somewhere

When asked about playing at the Twins' new stadium, Joe Girardi sounded hopeful about the weather:

...I do prefer outdoor baseball. Maybe we’re catching it at the right time. It’s supposed to be 80 degrees in Minnesota this week. They claim it’s only one degree colder than Chicago on average. And it seems the weather’s been really good up there this year.

Instead of the "right time" (i.e. a balmy evening like the one we had on the East Coast), the Yanks were part of the first rain delay in almost 30 years in Minnesota, dating back to September 26th, 1981, back at the old Metropolitan Stadium. Last night, it started raining with a purpose sometime around the second inning and only got worse from there.

Picking up where they left off against the Mets, the Yankees offense was painful to watch in the five innings of play that were completed before the game was suspended. Mark Teixeira erased a single by Brett Garnder by grounding into a double play in the first inning and Robinson Cano did the same thing to a base hit by A-Rod in the second.

When the lineup came around again in the fourth, Derek Jeter led off with a single and Brett Gardner worked a walk, setting the table for the middle of the order. However, Teixeira popped it up, A-Rod struck out swinging and Cano flied out to center without so much as moving the lead runner to third. Had the Yanks been able to sneak one across there and hold the lead, the game might have already been final.

A.J. Burnett had the Twins feeling the same way as he stranded two baserunners in each of the first two innings. He found his groove from there, however, retiring nine straight until Denard Span dropped a bunt single on him with two outs in the fifth. Span stole second but Orlando Hudson struck out swinging to end the inning and the game, for the time being.

Burnett whiffed five and allowed three hits and a walk during his five scoreless frames. With the game still knotted up at zero, he has a chance to get the win if the Yanks can score some runs in the sixth inning and hold the lead. One step at a time though, as any win will do just fine.

Play will resume today at 5:05 Eastern and they'll finish the game before the teams play their regularly scheduled tilt. One and a half header! Girardi didn't announce who would be pitching when the game begins again but it will likely be Boone Logan or Damaso Marte since lefties Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are due up in the bottom of the sixth and Joe Girardi will feel the need to start burning through relievers as soon as possible since there will be at least 13 innings to plat tomorrow. Mark it down.

We Didn't Think It Would Be That Easy, Did We?

Good morning, Fackers. That's not one of you on the left with your head down, is it? If it is, we'll just assume that the glass of white wine is there because your girlfriend got up to go to the bathroom. Either way, cheer up. It was a tough loss but let's just take a deep breath.

It's funny how no one picked the Yankees to sweep this series (well, except Iracane) but we still feel like they should win every time they play, isn't it?

The same thing happened against the Angels in the ALCS. We nodded along with all the predictions saying how the series could be "one for the ages" and knew the Halos were a formidable foe, but were still shocked when Vlad Guerrero hit that homer off of Andy Pettitte and when Nick Swisher popped out to end Game 5 (another miserable A.J. Burnett outing with an unlikely comeback) against Brian Fuentes. Similarly, we applauded the notion that the Fall Classic featured the two best teams in baseball and assumed it would be a great series. Unfortunately, for the series to be great, both teams have to lose some games.

Did anyone assume that we were going to take all three games in Philly? I highly doubt it, but after the Bombers took the first two, our expectations completely changed.

After the top half of the first inning, it was easy to imagine Cliff Lee finally realizing that he was human and A.J. Burnett pitching well enough to beat him. Even when Derek Jeter came to the plate in the 9th, it was hard not to picture him poking a hit through the infield and bringing the go-ahead run to the plate with no one out.

Unfortunately, both of those fantasies were squashed almost immediately by a homer off the bat of Chase Utley and a double play turned by he and Jimmy Rollins, respectively.

As for Burnett, he threw 56 pitches and exactly half of them were strikes. He faced 15 batters but retired only 6. He walked twice as many men (4) as he struck out (2). IIATMS ran down the gory details of his outing via pitch f/x. Judging by the charts, it becomes even more apparent that Burnett had all the accuracy and precision of a greased up fire hose.

There will surely be the temptation to point to the fact that he only had three days of rest as the reason his command was so poor but we've seen this plenty of times from Burnett on 4 and even 5 days of rest. In fact, we just saw it early in Game 5 in Anaheim. As much as we don't want to realize it, his dominant performance in Game 2 of the series was about as likely as his meltdown in Game 5.

But the Yankees knew what they signed up for when they inked Burnett to that $82.5M deal: Incredible stuff with so-so command. If they wanted a guy who they thought could be consistently average all the time, they would have went after Derek Lowe instead. So we take the good with the bad and move on.

The 2009 Postseason: Where The Correct Calls Are Controversial Too!

One of the most questionable plays in last night's game (the most questionable according to Joe Buck) came in the 10th inning when Melky Cabrera was bearing down on second base after Jorge Posada chopped one to the right side. It appeared to be a tailor-made double play ball and Eric Aybar turned what looked to be the Yankees' 4th twin killing of the night. Except Jerry Layne called Melky safe.

The throw was clearly there in time, but upon further review, it appeared that Aybar had not touched the bag. As 'Duk at Big League Stew pointed out, the "neighborhood play" is commonly accepted in lieu of actually tagging the bag. His take:

From my viewpoint, I can see where Aybar and manager Mike Scioscia were coming from. That's an awfully gutsy call to make in that position. How can umpires look the other way nearly every other time, but enforce it the one time it actually matters? Considering the cold and wet conditions at Yankee Stadium, why couldn't Aybar get a free pass that's never debated in any other circumstance?

To say that this was "the one time" it actually mattered is a little misleading. At one point on the FOX Broadcast, Tim McCarver said they reviewed each of the three previous double plays the Yanks hit into and Aybar had touched the bag every time. They'd been consistent throughout the night.

Lane probably thought this was a particularly egregious offense of the unwritten rule. He could have very easily turned a blind eye to the play because even if replays showed that Aybar never touched the bag, he wouldn't have taken any real heat since people accept that the infielder doesn't have to actually make contact with the bag. But they do have to come close and make some sort of a effort or phantom tag.

Melky slid in hard, running into Aybar and doing his best to best to break up the DP. If Aybar actually stepped on the bag, Melky would have got there sooner and possibly broken up the play all together. That split second mattered.

Joe Buck brought up the play at least 75 more times in the broadcast, saying at one point that it was a good thing that no runs scored in the inning before it would have been terrible for baseball fans to see a call like that factor into the outcome of the game. A technically correct call. How awful!

In a postseason of blown calls, during a came with several wrong calls by the first base umpire, this should be a non-issue. But the fact that it was the 10th inning brings it under intense scrutiny. Props to Jerry Layne for having the balls to make the right call.

Quick But Not Painless

[Photos]

After Sunday afternoon's game, Matt chose to eat a little crow for what he wrote in the preview, and tonight it's my turn. I spent my post making fun of Brett Tomko for whining about he lack of opportunities with the Yankees this season and for tonight at least, he had the last laugh.

Tomko threw just 78 pitches in his start because he wasn't fully stretched out, but used them efficiently and pitched to contact over his 5 innings of work. He struck out one and walked one, getting the other 13 outs with the help of his defense; five on the ground and nine in the air.

The most influential play, by more than 10% in WPA, came in the third inning when Tomko faced his only real jam of the game. Ramiro Pena and Derek Jeter led of the inning with back to back singles, Johnny Damon flew out to right and Mark Teixeira loaded the bases with a walk. With only one out, A-Rod came to the plate in an extremely favorable RBI situation but instead grounded into an inning-end 1-2-3 double play. A-Rod let Tomko off the hook and the Yankees never got another man to third base.

A.J. Burnett took a complete game loss, his first CG of the year and the Yankees' second after CC Sabathia's outing in Detroit back in April. All of the damage the A's did came in the bottom of the fourth inning. Rajai Davis doubled, stole third and was singled home by Kurt Suzuki to break the scoreless tie. Jerry Hairston, Jr.'s brother Scott followed that with another single and those two were moved over by a groundout courtesy of Mike Sweeney. With two outs, Burnett started his delivery home but stopped in the middle of his delivery and held onto the ball. The runners advanced and Mark Ellis doubled into the gap to make it 3-0 A's.

Aside from the 4th inning, Burnett was one of he lone bright spots in a frustrating game for the Yanks. Over his 8 innings, he gave up six hits and two walks while striking out 5. It only took him 99 pitches and combined with the Yanks absence at the plate allowed the game to wrap up in a tidy 2:15. Jeter went 3-4 and Posada picked up a hit on his birthday.

There isn't a whole lot more to say about this one. A solid pitching performance was wasted by a non-existent offense one. The Yanks have been rolling along so well that it's easy to forget that a lot of the time, things don't go according to plan. The Yanks were supposed to beat up on Brett Tomko, but instead he made people momentarily forget that he's 36 years old and has had one year since 1997 in which he was above league average. Congrats, buddy. Go paint a fucking picture about it.

Cano's Bad Night

Last night was a great win, and Robinson Cano probably couldn't be happier. His atrocious effort got overshadowed by the Yankees winning their fifth straight game and Mariano Rivera notching his 500th save and doing something Cano couldn't last night - see more than three pitches in an at bat and get on base. But since today is a relatively slow off day, we might as take closer look at just how bad Robby's night was:

• 1st inning: With no one out and runners on first and second, Robby grounded the third pitch he saw to Luis Castillo, who flipped to Alex Cora who fired to first base. The Mets probably would have had the double play at first base if Daniel Murphy had held onto the ball, but instead settled for the force out. Not content with being on base, Cano was caught stealing to end the inning. In his career, he has 16 stolen bases and has been caught 17 times.
  
  
• 4th inning: After A-Rod led off with a single, Cano rapped a blistering 83MPH fastball again to Castillo, but this time Murphy held onto the relay from Cora for a successful double play. Two more pitches, two more outs.
  
  
• 6th inning: With men on second and third and one out, Hernandez intentionally walked A-Rod to get to Cano. On the strength of the two ground balls Livan had induced from Cano earlier in the game, Jerry Manuel took the risk of loading the bases to create the possibility of a double play. Robby took two balls this time, before reversing the third pitch he saw towards Alex Cora for the DP the Mets were hoping for.
  
  
• 8th inning: Once again with the bases loaded, but this time with two out, Livan Hernandez had seemingly lost his command. He had thrown 18 pitches and only four for strikes. Cano took two balls but grounded the third one to Castillo to end the inning. Had there been less than two outs, it might have been another double play.

Add that all up and what do you get? A -.304 WPA. That means having Cano in the line up yesterday made the Yankees 30% more likely to lose. In four plate appearances, he saw only 14 pitches and made 7 outs (one on the basepaths). A-Rod got on base 4 times in front of him and never made it safely to second. He came to the plate with 9 runners on base and none of them scored. He was the biggest (only?) reason that Livan Hernandez wasn't lit up like a Christmas tree last night.

Cano's biggest strength - his ability to make contact and put the ball in play - can also be his greatest weakness. He rarely works the count because he knows he can hit almost anything that is thrown is his general vicinity. As a result, he's going to have nights like this one, where he chalks up four hits in as many plate appearances, but will also have abysmal outings like last night. When you constantly put the ball in play, you rely on probability, which is why Cano is not only a streaky hitter from game to game, but year to year.

This season, he's on pace for 195 hits, but only 32 walks and 50 strikeouts. Unfortunately that pace also predicts 22 GIDP, will probably put him near the top 5 in the league in that category. Strikeouts are bad, but they are great compared to double plays.

As much as we'd love to see Cano improve his plate discipline, most statistical evidence indicates that patience isn't something hitters develop; they either come into the league with the mindset to get on base or don't. Last night was pretty lucky for the Yanks. They absorbed what might be the single worst night of Cano's season and still came away with the win. And in the end, that's all that really matters.

Did You Know?

Before tonight, had you considered the possibility that if you bring the tying run to the plate and that batter grounds into a double play, even if a run scores, during the next at-bat, the tying run would no longer be at the plate? When was the last time you saw a pitcher throw an 8 inning complete game?

Thanks to Jorge Posada and CC Sabathia, now you know both of those things.

Not to point to point the finger(s) at those two, of course. The home run Sabathia gave up to Magglio Ordonez literally bounced off the top of the wall. Maggs sliced it off his back foot down the right field line, and left the park by the slimmest of margins. The rest of the offense wasn't too helpful either. Robby Cano and Ramiro Pena were the only ones who could muster than one hit (two apiece) as Verlander racked up nine strikeouts.

It was a swift and brutal affair, a tragic tilt that ended far too soon. After three excruciating Red losses to the Sox in a row, you might have thought the Yanks were due for a bounceback. You would have been wrong. They were were efficiently disposed of in a tidy 2:19.

While the Red Sox series averaged just over four hours per game, this one went quietly into the night. A letdown game after a clash with their arch rivals, perhaps? I'd like to think a team struggling to stay above .500 wouldn't need any extra motivation to win a game coming off being swept by a division foe.

Who knows how much effort actually correlates to success in baseball? I'd venture to guess the connection is not very strong. It's not like football, where strength has a much greater impact upon success. You can hit the gym and the results will translate much more directly to your success on the field.

At a certain point in baseball, no matter what you do (aside from taking steriods), you are pretty much as good as you are going to get. The greatest player of all-time reached base in less than half of the times he came to the plate. Both pitching and hitting have a fickleness and mystique about them. You don't want to give a sinkerballer too much rest and you wouldn't want to disturb a batter's choreographed routine.

I think it has a lot to do with the extremely random nature of baseball. Baseball completely rewrites the concept of confidence intervals. I've never seen a trend player's numbers that made me 95% confident in anything. You are trying to hit a round ball with a rounded bat. Every fraction of an inch affects the outcome. No matter how great of a slugger or hurler you are, you can never hope to control your results that precisely. And that is the reason they need to play 162 games. You just have to stack the odds in your favor, throw it against the wall, and see what sticks.

When things go wrong, who is there to be mad at? The Baseball Gods? The laws of probability? Fate? That's part of the appeal for me as a fan. You don't have to ride the rollercoaster of every up and down. The season lasts forever. It's not like football, where games are ten times more significant in the standings and occur a week apart. If the Yankees were the Giants, the season would have been over already.

It's early in the schedule, and no matter what some anonymous commenters would like you to believe, there is still a lot of baseball to be played and a lot could change over that time. Maybe when September rolls around we'll look back at this time and realize that all the rough patches were actually bad omens. Or perhaps, we'll look back at this stretch and wonder why we were so impatient so as to assume that we could tell the future by the results of 19 games.