SI Profiles Chapman

Good morning Fackers. I don't know about you, but I can't wait for the Winter Meetings to start up next week. It's getting to be pretty slim pickings out there for things worth talking about.

Two weeks back, I expressed some concern over the Yankees interest in Aroldis Chapman, based largely on the success - or lack thereof - of previous Cuban players. We followed that the next day with a some more Chapman content, including a scouting report from Baseball-Intellect.

Tuesday, Sports Illustrated ran an in depth profile on Chapman (Joel Sherman was upset about this, as he felt SI should have profiled Noel Arguelles instead). Again, perhaps it's more confirmation bias on my part, but the SI piece has made me more leery of Chapman.

Building on questions of character that arose from Chapman's decision to switch agents two weeks ago, SI talks about Chapman's first, badly botched, attempt at defection and refutes the story that his exclusion from the 2008 Cuban Olympic team was punishment for that. It also touches on his decision to defect just days before his daughter was born.

I'm hesitant to criticize Chapman's decision making process as it relates to his defection decisions. I don't know what it's like to live under a communist regime; I don't know what it's like wrestle with the thought of leaving friends and family behind for a lengthy stretch of time; I don't know what it's like to have the prospect of $50M contract waiting for me on the other side.

I am however concerned about the likelihood of Chapman being a successful Major League pitcher and worthwhile risk for the amount of money he's commanding. On top of the less than glowing scouting report from Baseball Intellect, the SI piece suggests that Chapman's exclusion from Beijing a year ago was performance based and not a punishment. It illuminates Chapman's alarmingly high walk rate in competition that generally features free swingers and generous strike zones. It points to Baseball Prospectus' Clay Davenport's projections of Chapman having a K/9 over 9, but an ERA over 6.50, and compares him closely to pitchers who are struggling to make it out of AAA. It features a quote from Chapman indicating that he isn't too willing to be anything but a starting pitcher.

None of this means that Chapman won't be or can't be successful. But all of it - for me at least - makes it all the more dubious that he will be. And it makes me just about certain that he's not worth the investment it would take to ink him to a deal.

The more I hear about Chapman, the more I'm reminded of the fabled Sidd Finch.

The Cuban Pitcher Crisis

Prior to the start 1995 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Hideo Nomo, who had "retired" from his Japanese club in order to become a free agent. Nomo became just the second Japanese native to play in the Major Leagues and the first in more than thirty years. Nomo had a wildly successful rookie campaign, serving as the ace of the Dodgers' NL West winning staff and taking Rookie of the Year honors while posting a 150 ERA+ and leading the NL in shutouts, strikeouts, and K/9.

But in more than just his success on the field, Hideo Nomo was a revelation to the Dodgers. In a year that saw MLB attendance nosedive by about 20% in the wake of the 1994 strike, Dodger attendance dropped by only 7%. The Japanese-born Nomo drove Nomomania just as the Mexican born Fernando Valenzuela had driven Fernandomania 14 years earlier. And the Dodger realized the benefits between the lines, at the box office, in merchandising, and in national and international exposure.

At the time of Nomo's arrival, Major League baseball was already a diverse organization. Clubs had found successful reservoirs of talent in the States, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic, and to a lesser extent Canada, Mexico, Panama, even Nicaragua and Australia. Yet Japan, despite being a baseball-crazed nation with a well developed professional league, was a totally untapped resource. Part of that was due to Japan's restrictive player movement system, but another major factor was the old-boy-network of Major League Baseball in which the Japanese Leagues were deemed inferior. Nomo's success was a counterexample to that way of thinking and opened the door for more than forty Japanese-born players to reach the Majors with varying degrees of success since Nomo's debut.

While Nomo's rookie year may have opened the door for Japanese born players, there was still another country that was quite literally shut off from the Major Leagues. Cuba, less than one hundred miles from Key West and as passionate a baseball nation as any that graces the earth, has been subject to a U.S. embargo since 1960. So after Cuban born players like Tony Oliva, Bert Campaneris, Luis Tiant, Tony Perez and the like debuted in the 1960s, no Cuban-born players of consequence made it to the MLB for decades, except for those who emigrated at a young age such as Jose Canseco and Rafael Palmeiro.

That began to change at the same time Nomo came to the States. Cuban born pitcher Ariel Prieto emigrated to Puerto Rico after graduating college in Cuba. Because he chose to establish residency in Puerto Rico, he was subject to the draft and was chosen, with much fanfare, by the A's with the fifth overall pick in the 1995 draft.

That July, Livan Hernandez and Osvaldo Fernandez fled the Cuban National Team as well. However, they had the good sense to seek asylum in the Domincan Republic, thereby skirting the draft and earning themselves lucrative free agent deals. From there the floodgates opened: Rey Ordonez, Rolando Arrojo, Orlando Hernandez, Danys Baez, Adrian Hernandez, Jose Contreras, Yuniesky Betancourt, etc.

All of these players hit the open market with some degree of buzz about them. Some lived up to the billing (El Duque), some have carved out lengthy if average careers for themselves (Livan Hernandez), many utterly failed to live up to hype (Prieto, Arrojo, Contreras, Adrian Hernandez, etc.).

That isn't a knock against Cuban players. Projecting Major League talent is an inexact science, whether it's in evaluating high school or college players, sixteen year olds in Latin America, or even Japanese players from well established professional leagues. Cuban players are particularly challenging to evaluate. Because of the embargo it's difficult to scout them outside of occasional international competition. Unlike the Japanese leagues, Cuban players don't routinely compete against former Major Leaguers who can give some insight to their talent level. There is very little data on which to evaluate Cuban talent, and what little exists is highly unreliable.

But I think that Japanese and Cuban players, because they're something of a novelty and because they've been exposed to higher quality competition than other talent available to Major League clubs, are afforded more hype, and as such get rather large contracts when they sign.

The Yankees should be no stranger to this. They were in on Prieto before MLB ruled he was subject to the draft. They were in on Livan Hernadez and Osvaldo Fernadez before they signed with the Marlins and Giants respectively. They've signed Orlando Hernandez, Adrian Hernandez, Andy Morales, Jose Contreras, and Juan Miranda - with varying degrees of success. El Duque was worth every penny; El Duquecito never panned out. Andy Morales was found to have lied about his age, spent one miserable season in AA, and was released. Jose Contreras may have been traded away for pennies on the dollar, but he also never sustained anything remotely justifying the hype that surrounded his arrival and was exceedingly frustrating to watch. Miranda has shown signs of promise, but is buried behind Mark Teixeira and likely won't get a shot with the Yankees.

All of which is well worth keeping in mind as the Aroldis Chapman talk heats up over the next several weeks. The Yankees are clearly in on Chapman. They're linked in virtually every rumor about him, and hosted him at Yankee Stadium during the clinching Game Six of the ALCS. He is easily the most heralded player to come out of Cuba since - well, take your pick - Prieto, Livan, Arrojo, El Duque, Baez, Contreras, whoever. Chapman could prove to be the best Cuban hurler since Luis Tiant or Mike Cuellar, or even Fidel Castro himself.

If he's half as good as he's been hyped to be, it shouldn't be difficult for him to surpass the Cuban pitchers of the last 15 years. But whoever signs Chapman is going to have to pay a hefty price to find out if he's as good as billed. Given the track record of recent Cuban exports, especially considering their performance relative to how good they've been purported to be, I'd be very hesitant to give Chapman the dollars he will command.

Pitching From The Pyrenees

This one isn't Yankee-related just yet, but it's pretty interesting nonetheless.

Cuban prospect Aroldis Champan has taken one step along the road to becoming a Major Leaguer. The 21 year old flame-throwing lefty defected from the Cuban National Team in the Netherlands back on July 1st and has now established residency in the principality of Andorra:

“Andorra is a beautiful country and has provided an ideal setting for me to prepare myself for professional baseball without distractions,” Chapman said in a statement. “I look forward to becoming a proud advocate for my adopted country.”

As you can see in the picture to the right, Andorra is a beautiful country, indeed. Nestled in the Pyrenees Mountains between France and Spain, it's fairly temperate but due to it's higher elevation, it receives more snow and is slightly chillier than the countries it borders. At 181 square miles, it's roughly the size of seven CC Sabathia jerseys sewn together.

The country was formed in 1278, and is the last remaining sovereignty created by King Charlemagne of France to keep the Islamic Moors of Spain from entering his country. With such beauty and history, how could Chapman not move there?

Oh, minor detail: Andorra has no income tax, so the massive signing bonus he figures to get from an MLB team will be his to keep.

The bonus has been universally assumed to be higher than $32M given to Jose Contreras by the Yanks. It would seem to be a virtual lock because that was 7 years ago, Chapman is 10 years younger than Contreras was, and he's a left hander who has been clocked at over 100MPH. Even if he was 26, like some sources have suggested, he still represents significantly more upside than El Titan de Bronze.

Chapman hasn't been especially successful in either Cuban or International play, but his age and skills are obviously quite tantalizing. Keith Law even suggested that the Cuban team was forcing him to pitch mostly fastballs to limit his appeal to MLB clubs. Here is some more analysis from FanGraphs.

Is anyone intrigued by this guy? There is a lot of risk and uncertainty but also a lot of undeniable talent and potential. I think it's safe to say that neither Kei Igawa nor Contreras gave the Yanks anywhere the value they were looking for, but the $6.6M they signed El Duque for is certainly a different story. The problem is Chapman might cost 10 times that much.

The prospect of a young lefty with that kind of heat is captivating, and all 30 teams are said to have some level of interest, but I would be reticent to commit that kind of money to an international signing. Dice-K has been hot and cold for the Red Sox, at times looking like he was a good deal and at others like a total bust. There is a huge chance that Chapman ends up not living up to the contract and a relatively small one that he exceeds the value given. I say let someone else take the risk.

(Sidenote: What is stopping U.S. prospects (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper) from taking up residence in a country tax shelter such as Andorra or the Cayman Islands and avoiding the draft as well? I love America as much as the next guy, but for the difference between what the top tier guys get for signing bonuses and what they would get on the open market, I think I could officially reside somewhere else.)

Roster News and Notes

A few news items as we head towards tonight's preview:

It's official: Xavier Nady will have the second Tommy John surgery of his career.

Jose Molina begins his rehab assignment in Rhode Island tonight. He'll suit up for Scranton against the hated Pawtucket Red Sox.

There is no news on Damaso Marte, the only other Yankee on the DL. I presume he's fallen down the same rabbit hole that swallowed Ozzie Smith on The Simpsons.

Eric Hinske arrived in the Bronx yesterday, was added to the roster, and issued #14. A-Rod got a half night off as the DH, but with lefty Jarrod Washburn on the mound, Cody Ransom got the start at third.

Many in the blogosphere have pointed out the Hinske has played just 132 innings at third over the past five seasons, and has not been particularly graceful at the hot corner. Still, I'd expect to see him see time there soon, particularly when the Yanks get to the turf in Minnesota next week. All he has to do is run into one at the plate to make up for a few errors.

As expected, Ramiro Pena was optioned out to make room for Hinske. The plan is for Pena to learn to play CF at Scranton, increasing his versatility. RAB has a nice look at the situation. But I wonder, don't the Yankees already have an option like this at Scranton with the offensively-superior Kevin Russo? Either way, I think consistent playing time and regular PAs will help Pena.

Today marks the start of the international signing period, which means a bunch of Latin American 16 year-olds are about to become very rich in deals that may or may not be ethical and above board. The Yankees have completed their long-rumored deal with Gary Sanchez, adding to the organization's tremendous depth at catcher. They are reportedly closing in on a pitcher and shortstop as well. Pete Abe has some good comments on all this.

In bigger international news, Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman has defected. Chapman was impressive in the WBC and figures to start a bidding war once he establishes asylum, likley in the Dominican Republic or Nicaragua. If he's more El Duque than Jose Contreras, I say go for it.

Back with the preview in a bit.