Game 60: Get Up Jake

Now that we've reached the stage of the season where clubs can promote minor leaguers without having to worry about them being eligible for Super Two status, this year has really begun tp produce a bumper crop of top prospect debuts in the MLB.

Jason Heyward began his career as an Atlanta Brave with a bang at the beginning of the season and Ike Davis was called up when the Mets were struggling in mid-April. More recently, we've seen the debuts of Steven Strasburg, former Yankee farmhand Jose Tabata, fellow Pirate Brad Lincoln, and Mike Stanton (who is not related to the former Yankee reliever) to name a few. Still on the horizon are promising youngsters like the awesomely-named Carlos Santana - a catcher in the Indians' system, outfielders Domonic Brown of the Phillies and Desmond Jennings of the Rays, Scott Boras' Pittsburgh's Pedro Alvarez and Kyle Drabek - now property of the Blue Jays - who was the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay deal. Even these players experience a higher than expected rate of attrition, there's a good chance that we'll look back at this class of rookies as one of the best in the ten or fifteen years surrounding it.

Tonight, a highly-regarded Baltimore prospect will make his debut, but given the performance that happened just two days ago and forty miles down I-95, this one will seem considerably more subdued.

Jake Arietta was a fifth round pick in the 2007 draft but didn't begin his ascent through the minor leagues until the 2008 season. He debuted at High-A ball and struck out 120 batters in 113 1/3 innings while maintaining an ERA of 2.87. Last season, started with the AA Bowie Baysox, pitched 59 strong innings over 11 starts there and was promoted to AAA. While in Norfolk, Arrieta's strikeout rate dropped and his ERA rose, but was still respectable in his 92 innings there, tallying an ERA of 3.92 and a K/BB ratio comfortably over 2.

The twenty four year old right hander broke camp with the Triple-A squad this year and got off to a great start. Although his strikeout and walk rates aren't as strong as they were in the lower levels of the minors, they are better than they were at the same level last year and Arrieta has an ERA of just 1.85 through 11 starts. He has been more or less unhittable so far, surrendering fewer than six hits per nine innings and allowing only three homers in 73 IP.

In the past two years, the Orioles have seen more than their fair share of pitching prospects make their Major League debuts. Brad Bergesen first appeared in the Big Leagues April 21st of 2009, the less-celebrated-but-still-young David Hernandez joined the club May 28th, last night's pitcher Chris Tillman was called up at the end of last July, Brain Matusz made his debut six days later. Tonight, Arrieta will get his shot.

When we talked to Orioles fan and blogger Daniel Moroz before the season began, he surmised that barring a number of injuries, Arrieta wouldn't see more than a cup of coffee this season. Koji Uehara, who began the rotation, is on the DL and Hernandez, who has been ineffective in his eight starts, has been relegated to the bullpen. Those two moves, along with Arrieta's dominance and the O's futility, created Jake's chance to be called up.

It might not be occurring under the greatest of circumstances and it might not pay dividends immediately, but tonight should be a bit of a silver lining for Orioles fans, if such a thing can be found in one of their worst stretches in one of their worst seasons in franchise history.

Get up Jake, it's late in the mornin',
The rain is pourin' and we got work to do.
Get up Jake, there's no need a-lyin',
You tell me that you're dyin', but I know it's not true.

Now, me and Jake, we work down on the river,
on the ferry "Baltimore".
And when Jake don't rise up in the mornin',

People lined up along the shore.

[Song Notes: I've been a fan of this tune for a long time and it was the first thing I thought of when I heard Arrieta was going to be starting tonight. The lyrics don't line up perfectly, but the kid's name is Jake, "Baltimore" and "lined up" are in the song and that's good enough for our purposes. If only there was someone named Dan from Savannah on the Yankees, it would have really sealed the deal.

I had to upload the version from To Kingdom Come because the only "video" on YouTube kind of sucks.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:

Brett Gardner is once again out of the lineup; Marcus Thames gets the start in left field tonight. Pray for lots of groundballs and strike outs. Francisco Cervelli gets the finale off, with Chad Moeller getting the start against his former team.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Marcus Thames LF
Chad Moeller C

RHP A.J. Burnett

Orioles:

Corey Patterson LF
Miguel Tejada 3B
Nick Markakis RF
Ty Wigginton 1B
Luke Scott LF
Adam Jones CF
Matt Wieters C
Scott Moore 2B
Cesar Izturis SS

RHP Jake Arrieta

Wednesday Linktacular

Good morning Fackers. It's been a while since I've pulled together one of these, so grab a seat in front of the Coleman Lifelike Scoreboard (via Neyer) and let's take a trip around the baseballing interwebz.

Some quick Yankee items first before we get to the big stuff.

Here's a nice wrap up of the Yankees' second day of the draft from MLB.com with a video and a listing of all their picks.

Brian Costa of the WSJ took a look at some of the Yanks' late round picks of yesteryear.

Sean from Pending Pinstripes had a great post about giving more than lip service to the concept of "trusting the process" around draft time.

Brett Gardner was removed from last night's game with some discomfort in his thumb, likely stemming from the time that he broke it last year. As anyone who has fractured a digit can attest, pain can flare up at times for quite a while after the initial injury. Gardner said it's happened about 20 times since Spring Training, but it was a little worse tonight. Still, it's probably nothing to worry about.

Jorge Posada started taking catching practice once again, and hopefully should be available to resume that role part-time in the near future.

This isn't exactly news, but Dave Eiland was granted personal leave for an undisclosed reason and is not with the team at present. Bullpen coach Mike Harkey is occupying his role as pitching coach and Josh Paul - the coach of the short-season Staten Island team - is holding things down out in the bullpen for the time being.

Okay, onto the biggest topics of the last two days:

On Monday, Joe Posnanski went to great lengths to put the debut of Steven Strasburg into perspective and in so doing, said this:

But we live in a different time, our Christmas morning time, when expectation is more fun than realization, when potential costs as much or more than performance, when we happily get carried away, when it isn’t so much about that tired cliche of “what have you done for me lately?” but, instead, “what can you do for me tomorrow?”

If anything, Strasburg's jaw-dropping performance only served to increase the impossibly high expectations for him. Had he done something impressive but repeatable like striking out nine while walking two or three, that would have been one thing, but ripping of 14 Ks without issuing a single free pass? You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find any pitcher in the Majors that's done that, let along a rookie, let alone in his debut.

I'd obviously recommend reading through Poz's live blog of the game, but the most entertaining thing I found this morning about Strasmas was Dashiell Bennett's spot on vivisection of Bob Costas' call of the event over at Deadspin:

Bob Costas did more in just nine innings to craft the Legend of Stephen Strasburg then a lifetime supply of Baseball Almanacs ever could. Yet, he wants to use his same breaths to tsk-tsk the big bad media for losing their heads over the man. If you can't restrain yourself, Bob, why should anyone else?

If you think Dash is being harsh, click through for a mash-up of the historical name-dropping and "on the other hand" detachment Costas employs. I'm not saying there was a clear and easy path to walk for this kind of a game - something truly special was unfolding and it's tough to talk about that without going overboard - but it's the tone with which Costas speaks out both sides of his mouth, listing off legends of the game while saying that "others" might be going overboard with the hype, that neatly encompasses why so many people don't like him.

Deadspin was actually right in the middle of yesterday's second biggest baseball story as well - the one about Pete Rose's corked bat. Barry Petchesky did some real journalism and brought together the story of a PR4192 - a stick used in a game by Mr. Rose himself with an unbroken chain of custody - that X-rays show has a 6" piece of cork inserted right into the barrel.

Craig Calcaterra and Kevin Kaduk ask whether we should care about this and does it really matter, respectively. Beyond the story being a thoroughly enjoyable read, I do care and think it does matter.

It's not surprising by any stretch. We've long known that Rose has a shaky moral foundation (to put it kindly) and accusations of him corking date back to 2001. But his play on the field has always been unimpeachable. He was Charlie Hustle and any tarnish on his name had been confined to things he did without a batting helmet on. To my knowledge, no one ever questioned the veracity of his all-time hits record, save for the jab that he probably shouldn't have put himself in the lineup at the end of his career when he was a player-manager.

Even if MythBusters and other empirical research concluded that corking a bat doesn't really help. Fine, but it's still cheating, regardless of how much of an edge is provides. Again, not that this is shocking, but the one last leg that Rose had to stand on, now looks considerably more unstable.

Game 58: Changing Of The Guards

It's been only five days and three games since the Yankees and O's last met but, for the Orioles at least, much has changed in that time. After getting swept by the Yankees last Thursday night, Baltimore returned home and fired manager Dave Trembley Friday morning. It was hardly a surprise; rumors of Trembley's impending termination had circulated for weeks. In fact, in many ways, it was probably a relief to Trembley, who by all accounts is a good baseball man, but also clearly wasn't getting it done and seemed to have run out of answers.

Juan Samuel took over for Trembley on an interim basis, becoming the third consecutive Orioles manager to take the helm mid-season. He lost his first two games to run the O's losing streak to ten in row, 12 of 13, 14 of 16, and 17 of 20, before recording his first managerial victory with an extra inning decision over Boston on Sunday. He had yesterday's off day to bask in the glow of his win, but things won't be getting any easier for him with the Yankees in town for three before kicking off two weeks of interleague play.

Not only is Samuel the third consecutive mid-season hire for Baltimore, following Trembley and Sam Perlozzo, but he's also the fourth consecutive Oriole hire with no prior Big League managerial experience, a trend that started when the O's hired then-Yankee coach Lee Mazzilli following the 2003 season.

Going with a rookie manager four times in a row hasn't brought much success for the Orioles, but it's not as if they were tremendously successful under previous retreads Mike Hargrove and Ray Miller. The truth of the matter is, the Orioles haven't been worth a damn since 1997, when they went 98-64, won the AL East, and advanced to the ALCS. After that season manager Davey Johnson resigned, and the O's haven't had a winning season since.

Johnson made a cameo at the draft last night, serving as one of the Washington Nationals representatives as the Orioles' Beltway rivals selected super-hyped phenom Bryce Harper with the top pick in the draft. Tonight, just down I-295, those same Nationals will host the Pirates in the most anticipated game of the season, in front of a sold out house, as last year's top overall super-hyped pick Stephen Strasburg makes his Major League debut. Meanwhile, even with the Yankees in town, Baltimore will fail to fill their park, which was once one of the hottest tickets in the Majors.

While Washington had to suffer through two consecutive seasons of having the Major's worst record in order to secure those coveted young talents, it is now the Orioles who occupy the MLB basement. Typical of their recent luck, they're on pace to have the top pick in next year's draft - the first draft in three years that doesn't figure to have a once-in-a-generation type talent sitting at the top of the heap.

In the history of mid-Atlantic baseball, tonight could mark a turning point. After arriving in Baltimore from St. Louis in 1954, the Orioles quickly established themselves as a model franchise. "The Oriole Way" became a shining example of how to run an organization, leading to World Series titles in 1966, 1970, and 1983, AL Pennants in 1969, 1971, and 1979, and ALCS losses in four other years. It generated Hall of Famers in Earl Weaver, Jim Palmer, Brooks Robinson, Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, and Cal Ripken Jr.

The strength and proximity of the O's made it was easier for the region to stomach the original Senators leaving Washington after the 1960 season, and then the expansion franchise leaving after the 1971 season. The Orioles extended run of quality play softened the blow of the Nation's Capital being without a Big League team for the next thirty three seasons.

But tonight, with Strasburg debuting, with Harper soon to be in tow, with another mid-season interim rookie manager in the Baltimore dugout, and with Baltimore staring down their thirteenth consecutive losing season, we might just be witnessing a changing of the guards in metro-D.C. baseball.

Gentlemen, he said,
I don't need your organization, I've shined your shoes,
I've moved your mountains and marked your cards
But Eden is burning, either brace yourself for elimination
Or else your hearts must have the courage for the changing of the guards.

[Song Notes: Another epic tale from Dylan. The video quality isn't great, but the options are limited as the song has rarely been played live.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Not much to say here. This is what passes for the regular lineup right now. Perhaps the comforts of home can help Mark Teixeira snap out of his season-long funk. Phil Hughes faces Baltimore for his second consecutive start and third time this year.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Francisco Cervelli C
Brett Gardner LF

RHP Phil Hughes

Orioles:

Julio Lugo 2B
Miguel Tejada 3B
Nick Markakis RF
Ty Wigginton 1B
Luke Scott DH
Not Pacman Jones CF
Matt Wieters C
Lou Montanez LF
Cesar Izturis SS

RHP Kevin Millwood

Six Days Worth Of News, Notes, & Links

Good morning Fackers. I'm still getting myself back up to speed here, but I suppose, that like the majority of the Yankees roster at present, I'm day-to-day. Hope you all had a good Memorial Day Weekend. Mine wasn't too bad. In fact, if I were a Yankees minor league prospect and I was assigned to Charleston, I think I might intentionally tank in hopes of repeating the level and spending another year there. Let's get caught up on the past several days with some news, notes, and links:

As we mentioned in last night's preview, Jorge Posada was not activated in time for last night's game, despite being eligible to come off the DL and having run and taken BP without incident over the past few days. Rumor is he'll be activated in time for tonight's contest.

Posada's return likely means the end of Chad Moeller's tenure with the club, at least for the time being. However, Posada has yet to catch, which is likely to be the most strenuous activity as it relates to the fracture in his foot. It's also rumored that Posada may ease his way back into the lineup as a DH. It's not entirely out of the question that the team might keep Moeller around for a few more days, but with just a four man bench I can't see the team carrying three catchers right now.

In other roster news, Cleveland has claimed pitcher Shane Lindsay off waivers from the Yankees. Lindsay was claimed from Colorado just two weeks ago, but was promptly DFA'd to make room when Chad Gaudin was signed last week. Interestingly enough, Cleveland passed on an opportunity to claim Lindsay when he was waived earlier this month, but thought better of it this time around. The tall Australian spent the entirety of his brief Yankee career in Extended Spring Training, trying to improve upon his career 6.1 BB/9.

Speaking of relievers with control problems, former Yankee Brian Bruney, late of the Nationals, has signed a minor league deal with Milwaukee. Bruney handed out 20 free passes in just 17.2 innings of work this year.

Meanwhile, the Yankees may soon be stocking another arm in their minor league system. On Monday, reliever Kanekoa Texeira was designated for assignment by Seattle. Texeira was a Rule 5 pick from the Yankees system this past off-season. Seattle now has ten days to trade, waive, or release Texeira. Any team that picks him up inherits the Rule 5 requirement of keeping him on the 25 man roster for the remainder of the year. If he happens to clear waivers, Seattle must offer him back to the Yankees for $25k, half of the initial Rule 5 purchase price. The Yankees would not be required to carry him on either the 40 or 25 man rosters. As Mike Axisa at RAB noted, it never hurts to have depth, so I'm sure the club would taken him back if given the chance.

If he were to return, Texeira would likely be assigned to Scranton, who faced the great Stephen Strasburg over the weekend, and handed the phenom his first professional loss. Catcher Rene Rivera hit the first home run surrendered by the top pick in last year's draft. Rivera's job is likely in jeopardy when Posada is activated and Moeller goes back down, but at the very least he has a good story to tell for the rest of his days.

Scranton is getting somewhat healthy again as well, as outfielder/first baseman David Winfree and outfield Colin Curtis both returned over the weekend after missing time with injuries. As we noted last week, Curtis had been playing good ball prior to spraining his ankle and Brian Cashman stated that he would have been under consideration for a promotion had he not been injured. As we approach the one third mark of the season and the club begins to evaluate their roster needs for the remainder of the year, including looking for "versatile outfield bats", don't be surprised to see Curtis get a look before the trade deadline.

We're a few days late on this one, but weekend contributor Steve H, of Mystique and Aura, had a good post at RAB on Saturday, pointing out that handing a Major League job to Kevin Russo right now may hurt his development long term. At some point we may see Colin Curtis replace Russo so he can continue to develop as a supersub at the AAA level.

On Friday, Scranton lost a player, as pitcher Amauri Sanit was suspended for 50 games. The diminutive 30 year old Cuban tested positive for Mephentermine and had posted an 8.69 ERA through 19.2 IP this year.

In AA Trenton, slugger Jorge Vazquez made his 2010 debut last night. The 28 year old corner infielder was part of the Yankees haul out of the Mexican League in recent years, joining Alfredo Aceves and Ramiro Pena as useful pieces plucked from south of the border. He hit 13 home runs in just 225 at bats last year, but had missed the entirety of this season following an appendectomy. Fellow appendix-less prospect Manny Banuelos has yet to return action this year.

Fangraph's Jack Moore checks in on Tampa switch picher Pat Venditte.

For more minor league info, Pending Pinstripes' Greg Fertel has a post on how his top thirty prospects have faired thus far.

On Friday, ESPN's Rob Neyer riffed on Steve Goldman's pondering about making Curtis Granderson a platoon player. Granderson has recorded a hit off a left handed pitcher every day since that post published.

Seinfeld debuted just over twenty years ago, and went off the air just over twelve years ago. ESPN New York put together a list of Yankees references throughout the show's history.

Ok, that just about clears out all the things I had stashed away in Google Reader over the past few days. Back with more later on.

Posnanski Ponders Prospect Promotion

As consumers of sports writing, we are extremely lucky to be living during the Joe Posnanski era. At no other point during the history of athletic journalism has there been A) a professional sports writer willing to write thousands of words on top of their weekly quotas simply for the enjoyment of it and B) a way for the public to access those words for free. It's not just the volume at which he produces content, but Poz's posts are overflowing with interesting nuggets. To wit, here's a tangent that he went off on while talking about the Nationals' plan to start Stephen Strasburg in the minor leagues this year.

On the other hand — well, I haven’t thought out the following too deeply. But I do sometimes wonder if “not rushing top prospects” is kind of safe, conventional thinking, the same sort of safe, conventional thinking that causes football coaches to punt on fourth down and short. In other words, I sometimes wonder if people don’t rush great prospects like Strasburg because it SOUNDS safer rather than because it IS safer.

[...]

I do sometimes wonder if one way to think out of the box is to really push prospects, especially advanced prospects, much faster than teams are doing it now. Sure, every GM and scout around can tell you horror story after horror story about players who came up too soon and were ruined because of it. But we don’t really know if those players would have succeeded had they been treated more carefully … maybe they were just lacking the talent or the work ethic or whatever. We can't really know.

In between those two paragraphs, Posnanski gives the example of Bob Feller who, although he was thrust into the Majors at 17 years old and walked more than 6 batters per 9 innings during his first three seasons, eventually figured it out and went on to have a great career.

The transition from the minor leagues into the Majors is one of the more delicate dances performed in sports, in both directions. So the sayings go, you don't want to bring a guy up "before he's ready" and you don't want to send a guy down when he has "nothing left to prove". Of course, the decisions are clouded with enormous amounts of luck. We've seen marginal players burst onto the scene and future Hall of Famers stumble out of the gate (there are some managers mixed in to that list, but you get the idea).

Look at Ramiro Pena and Francisco Cervelli, neither of whom had played above AA before getting called up to the Yankees. Neither of them hit the cover off the ball with the MLB team, but they made representative efforts at the plate (Pena actually improved on his minor league numbers) and shined defensively. These are just anecdotal examples with small sample sizes, but it goes to show that calling up a player "too early" isn't necessarily destined to fail.

In other sports and at other times in life, we are told that we benefit from increased competition. Perhaps we are put on a project at our job that pushes the boundaries of what we thought we were capable of and do some of our best work on it. Personally, I tend to play better golf when I'm paired with three other guys who shoot in the 70's than when I'm out with a few of my buddies who only break 100 on a good day. Does your performance on the basketball court improve when facing better competition? Again, not perfect examples, but just some things to consider.

The problem is that there are no alternative universes in which we can test these theories. You either go with Plan A or Plan B and get judged by the results. You don't have multiple Joba Chamberlains, one of which you could have kept in AAA to work on his starting repertoire in 2007 and 2008 and the other you could have brought up to the Major League bullpen to help the team in '07.

No team wants to squander a top prospect by doing something that is perceived as risky like rushing him to the Majors. Oh, they'll risk putting him on the wrong path by doing something seemingly conservative like stashing him in the minors for too long, but that's a whole different story.

I think this line of decision making has become de rigueur in sports. Whether it truly makes sense or not, PR plays a large role in many of the decisions that a franchise makes. It's one thing to be wrong when your decisions agree with conventional wisdom, it's an entirely different beast to roll snake eyes when you are bucking the established trends.

The example Posnanski uses about punting on 4th and short is a great one. Coaches are willing to be slightly wrong all of the time instead of being really wrong once in a while and getting lambasted like Bill Belichick did when he went for it on 4th and 2 and failed.

As decision making in sports becomes more and more grounded in logic and analysis, teams have to look to get an edge by finding the places that conventional wisdom might not be correct. Or places that it's generally correct but can be unnecessarily cautious at times in the name of saving face.

Maybe Sky Kalkman's unconventional line up really is better than the usual ones we are used to seeing, but if Joe Girardi trots it out for the first week of the season and the Yanks score three runs a game, he's going to be tarred and feathered by the media. If that happens with a typical batting order, (most sane) people would just chalk it up to bad luck. It would be kind of stupid for Girardi to stick his neck out that far simply on a self-preservation level.

Sure, there are plenty of factors that might keep a great prospect in the minors, like the cost of starting their arbitration clock and finding the right place for them on the team, but I agree with Poz's hunch that teams might be wasting some quality production in the minors by being too conservative with the timing of their call ups. Maybe that seemingly premature call up is a springboard to a better career. Perhaps it ends in failure, frustration and a demotion back to AAA. But there's only one way to find out.

Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Showcase Tonight

For those of you who aren't ready to let go of baseball season just yet, MLB Network has some methadone to ease your jones tonight. The Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Showcase will be on MLBN at 8 PM EST tonight.

All 30 clubs will be represented, with Michael Dunn being the lone Yankee representative on the West team. Former Yankee outfielder Gary Ward is on the coaching staff for the West team as well; former Yankee prospect Jose Tabata is on the East roster. Stephen Strasburg was scheduled to start for the East, but has been scratched with a pulled muscle in his neck.

Pitching From The Pyrenees

This one isn't Yankee-related just yet, but it's pretty interesting nonetheless.

Cuban prospect Aroldis Champan has taken one step along the road to becoming a Major Leaguer. The 21 year old flame-throwing lefty defected from the Cuban National Team in the Netherlands back on July 1st and has now established residency in the principality of Andorra:

“Andorra is a beautiful country and has provided an ideal setting for me to prepare myself for professional baseball without distractions,” Chapman said in a statement. “I look forward to becoming a proud advocate for my adopted country.”

As you can see in the picture to the right, Andorra is a beautiful country, indeed. Nestled in the Pyrenees Mountains between France and Spain, it's fairly temperate but due to it's higher elevation, it receives more snow and is slightly chillier than the countries it borders. At 181 square miles, it's roughly the size of seven CC Sabathia jerseys sewn together.

The country was formed in 1278, and is the last remaining sovereignty created by King Charlemagne of France to keep the Islamic Moors of Spain from entering his country. With such beauty and history, how could Chapman not move there?

Oh, minor detail: Andorra has no income tax, so the massive signing bonus he figures to get from an MLB team will be his to keep.

The bonus has been universally assumed to be higher than $32M given to Jose Contreras by the Yanks. It would seem to be a virtual lock because that was 7 years ago, Chapman is 10 years younger than Contreras was, and he's a left hander who has been clocked at over 100MPH. Even if he was 26, like some sources have suggested, he still represents significantly more upside than El Titan de Bronze.

Chapman hasn't been especially successful in either Cuban or International play, but his age and skills are obviously quite tantalizing. Keith Law even suggested that the Cuban team was forcing him to pitch mostly fastballs to limit his appeal to MLB clubs. Here is some more analysis from FanGraphs.

Is anyone intrigued by this guy? There is a lot of risk and uncertainty but also a lot of undeniable talent and potential. I think it's safe to say that neither Kei Igawa nor Contreras gave the Yanks anywhere the value they were looking for, but the $6.6M they signed El Duque for is certainly a different story. The problem is Chapman might cost 10 times that much.

The prospect of a young lefty with that kind of heat is captivating, and all 30 teams are said to have some level of interest, but I would be reticent to commit that kind of money to an international signing. Dice-K has been hot and cold for the Red Sox, at times looking like he was a good deal and at others like a total bust. There is a huge chance that Chapman ends up not living up to the contract and a relatively small one that he exceeds the value given. I say let someone else take the risk.

(Sidenote: What is stopping U.S. prospects (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper) from taking up residence in a country tax shelter such as Andorra or the Cayman Islands and avoiding the draft as well? I love America as much as the next guy, but for the difference between what the top tier guys get for signing bonuses and what they would get on the open market, I think I could officially reside somewhere else.)

Game 64: U.S. Blues

Washington: First in war, first in peace, last in the American League.

That was the old line about the first and second MLB franchises to call our nation's capital home. The Washington Senators v1.0 (1901-1960) and v2.0 (1961-1971) were a perrenial second division team. In 60 years, the first version managed just three pennants and a single World Championship, despite playing in an eight team league. After the original Senators skipped town to become the Minnesota Twins, the expansion Senators finished last four times and second-to-last three times as they compiled ten losing records in eleven seasons before becoming the Texas Rangers.

Other than the league, not much has changed since the Montreal Expos became the Washington Nationals in 2005. The Nats finished at .500 in 2005, good for their best record thus far, but also good for last place in the NL East that year. Since then, they've posted records of 71-91, 73-89, and 59-102, rising as high as fourth place in 2007.

Tonight, they enter their series with the Yankees at 16-45, playing .262 ball and nearly matching the historically bad pace set by the 1962 New York Mets (40-120, .250). At their current pace, they would have the sixth worst winning percentage since the dawn of the twentieth century.

The franchise is in total disarray. In March, Jim Bowden, General Manager and former Yankee front office employee, resigned in disgrace amid allegations of illegally skimming the signing bonuses of Latin American prospects. The most remarkable part of his four year reign of terror was that he acquired a lot of players he used to have in Cincinnati. Good for you Jim.

In the dugout, manager Manny Acta is day-to-day. Not as in injured, as in employed. Various reports are circulating that it's a matter of when, not if, he'll be fired. It may well come during this series, and Acta may well just stay in New York. I agree with Pete Abe that Acta will be the Mets' manager by the start of next year at the latest. Jerry Manuel's act, like K-Rod's, is getting tired. Acta was a coach with the Mets before taking the Nats' job, and he is still thought highly of wthin the organization.

On the field, the Nats are actually swinging the bats well. As a team, they're hitting .259/.344/.410 and all three marks are above the NL averages of .257/.333/.405. On the mound however, it's another story. The Nats are last in the NL in runs per game, ERA, WHIP, H/9, BB/9, and K/BB, and by a significant margin in most of those categories. Opponents are hitting .279/.362/.451 against them, dead last in BA and OBP against, and second to last in SLG, trailing Philly's bandbox staff by just 0.004.

The fire sale will start soon. Everyone save for Ryan Zimmerman is available. There's not much to pick at on the pitching staff: Ron Villone may be a good LOOGY for someone; John Lannan is too young and left-handed to come cheaply. They do have some bats to deal: Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, and former Yankee farm hands Christian Guzman and Nick Johnson. Rumors say Nick the Stick could find himself back in New York with the Mets or back in the AL East with Boston. Regardless of whatever haul the Nats pull for these parts, it's going to be a years-long road back to respectability, even if Stephen Strasburg proves to be everything Scott Boras says he is.

So with ace CC Sabathia taking the mound tonight against Shairon Martis and his career 84 ERA+, this should be a slam dunk. Which is exactly why I'm worried, particularly with CMW slated to go tomorrow. They need to beat up on the pitcher with a lady's name tonight.

Brian Bruney will be activated for tonight's game. If Tomko is DFA'd I'll be overjoyed; if Veras is I'll be satisfied. But if David Robertson finds his way back to Scranton I'm going to lose it.

Enjoy the game, and the vintage video below.



Back-to-back chicken shack
Son of gun better change your act
We're all confused. What's to lose?
You can call this song the United States Blues

A Sinking Feeling

We're a bit late to the party on this one, as it's already appeared on both RAB and Deadspin amongst other places I'm sure. ESPN's excitable, squeeky-voiced Tim Kurkjian has an article on the senior thesis of former Yankee pitcher Ross Ohlendorf, which examined the return on investment Major League clubs realized on the signing bonuses they issued. With the amateur draft concluding yesterday it's an interesting and timely read. Ohlie is Princeton educated, so this ain't no joke. Given his excitability and love of numbers, I'm surprised Kurjian's head didn't explode putting the article together.

I liked Ohlendorf and thought he would carve out a decent little career with the Yanks. I felt they misused him last year, as he became the de facto long man when they opened the season without one. Once he was demoted to Scranton and put back in the rotation, you knew they were showcasing him as tradebait. Sure enough he was a key cog in the deal that brought Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte.

There's been much talk of late of Alfredo Aceves as the new Ramiro Mendoza, and in a way I can see it. Alf's versatility is very valuable in much the same way it was for Mendoza. Both could spot start, serve as a long man, or get you out of a jam. Last night's hiccup nothwithstanding, Alf has been very good this year and there are no Yankee relievers not named "Mo" who I trust more at present.

But Mendoza had another weapon that made him valuable as a reliever: his bowling ball sinker. Mendoza could be brought into a mid-inning jam, and if he was on, he was one pitch, one groundball, and one double play away from getting out of it. Over his career Mendoza got 1.67 groundouts per air outs, compared to the league average of 1.08 over that time (Aceves checks in slightly below league average in his brief career). El Brujo induced 83 GiDPs in his career, 44 of them out of the pen, and seven of those against the first batter he faced. I thought Ohlendorf could have similar success, but it never materialized.

So, other than to fill space, why do I bring this all up now? Because as I mentioned yesterday, I'm at a total loss about what to do with Chien-Ming Wang. The team has already announced that he will make another start Wednesday. I'm not suggesting that he should be made a reliever now. I don't know what to do with him. But I wonder if his sinker could aid in him being an asset out of the pen. Of course, if he wasn't having problems with keeping his sinker down right now I wouldn't even be pondering this.

Ohlie's thesis essentially says that on average, teams realize a 60% return on their investment in a drafted player. I can't even fathom what kind of performance the Nationals would have to get out of Stephen Strasburg to get that kind of return on the dollar amounts Scott Boras is tossing around.

Strasburg... "What's The Risk?"

Occassionally, I have to park my car on the streets of Manhattan, which can take a while. Once in a while I turn on sports talk radio if I'm tired of scrolling through my iPod and usually end up regretting the decision almost instantly. Yesterday, I got back to the city around noon and turned on 1050AM just in time to hear Colin Cowherd say the dumbest fucking thing you will ever hear uttered about the MLB draft.

He spends a while defending Boras' $50M request (which even Scott Boras knows is ridiculous like the first numbers he threw around when A-Rod opted out), saying that like "John Elway and LeBron James", Steven Strasburg is a "once-in-a-decade type talent" and he can throw 103MPH (which obviously isn't true). The 'Herd then goes on to explain that the Nationals have nothing to lose since the Yankees drafted Brien Taylor in the 90's and still went on to become the team of the decade.

The grand finale occurs when Cowherd compares paying three times more than any other prospect ever for Strasburg is somehow less risky than taking a QB #1 in the NFL draft. Take a look at past #1 draft picks in the MLB. Now take a look at football's and tell me where there is more risk.

Listen for yourself. It's incomprehensibly stupid. Can we have Max Kellerman back, please?PLEASE?

Game 19: Papa Hobo

Sweep up,
I been sweeping up the tips I've made,
I'm living on Gatorade,
Planning my getaway,
Detroit, Detroit. 

Thanks, Paul Simon! In five lines, you managed to take us from Boston to Detroit. I guess there was another song in my library that talks about sweeping. I have absolutely no idea what that song means, or who the fuck "Papa Hobo" is supposed to be, but that pretty much nailed it.

Anyway, tonight in the spacious confines of Comerica Park, CC Sabathia looks to stop the Yanks' 3 game slide before it starts getting really ugly. He opposes Justin Verlander who has given up 21 runs in his four starts on the year. After winning the AL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and finishing 5th in Cy Young Voting in '06, Verlander posted a 4.84 ERA last year and lost 17 games. 

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I was at Yankee Stadium in for Game 2 of the 2006 ALDS, the game in that series that Verlander started. It took place on a Thursday afternoon, but was supposed to have been played the night before. I got there pretty early that Wednesday, because it was the first Yankees playoff game I'd ever been to. Verlander had been throwing right alongside my seat down the third baseline, and I was close enough to hear him ask whoever he was tossing the ball with "Why the fuck no Yankees were on the field". Although it wasn't raining, the Yanks waited until gametime to announce that the game was delayed, even though it was pretty obvious the decision had already been made. Apparently they didn't give the Tigers a heads up either.  

I was alone, which kind of sucked, but I grabbed a few beers and a shitty poncho and hung out in my seat, just taking in the strange atmosphere. When nine o'clock rolled around, even though it had stopped raining, they called the game. Everyone was puzzled, but more so pissed that they had wasted their whole night. (It started torrentially downpouring about 45 minutes later)

I came back on Thursday, but the Stadium was at maybe 75% capacity. The emptiness and fact that it was a day game sort of robbed the playoff atmosphere. I still have a vivid memory of the 8th inning when Curtis Granderson robbed Gary Sheffield on a scorched line drive and then Joel Zumaya struck out Giambi and A-Rod through the shadows, touching 103mph on the Yankee Stadium radar gun. The Yanks lost 3-4 that day, dropped the next two in Comerica and I didn't get the chance to use my Game 5 tickets.  

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Of course, Zumaya and Verlander (who was also breaking 100 on the gun that day) are nowhere near the dominant flamethrowers they were that year. It makes you wonder if, in the era that baseball is in now where steroid use is presumably declining, anyone can last throwing that kind of heat. I would tend to think not. Your move, Strasburg.