Showing posts with label ramiro pena. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ramiro pena. Show all posts

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Game 83 Recap

[WE data via FG]

Highlights:
Not In The Highlights:
  • The Yanks loaded the bases in the first inning with one out but Posada and Thames struck out to end the threat.

  • A-Rod fell down trying to catch a pop up in foul territory
Basically:
  • A.J. Burnett build on his last strong outing against the Blue Jays with a seven inning, two run effort last night. He only struck out two batters but induced 11 ground balls and allowed just five hits and two walks.

  • In the fourth inning, despite the fact that Francisco Cervelli erased a leadoff single by Marcus Thames with a double play, the Yanks managed to plate five runs. Ramiro Pena and Derek Jeter both chipped in RBI singles and Mark Teixeira launched a three run homer off of Gio Gonzalez to center field.

  • Stop the presses, Damaso Marte pitched a full fucking inning!

  • Joba Chamberlain allowed a single to lead off the ninth inning but erased it with a double play and escaped without allowing a run.
Up Next:
  • The Yanks fly up the coast to Seattle for a four game set with the Mariners which will lead them into the All-Star break.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Who Goes When Granderson Returns?

As we mentioned yesterday and again this morning, Curtis Granderson is currently rehabbing with Scranton and is slated to rejoin the Yankees in time for Friday's series opener against Cleveland.

Granderson's return of course means that someone has to go from the Big League roster. As much we'd like that someone to be Boone Logan, Joe Girardi has made it pretty clear that he likes having Logan as a second lefty in the bullpen and it's highly unlikely the Yankees will abandon the seven man bullpen ever again.

Thus, barring an injury between now and then, a position player will have to be removed from the roster. As the back-up catcher, Chad Moeller is safe. That leaves five candidates: Ramiro Pena, Kevin Russo, Juan Miranda, Marcus Thames, and Randy Winn.

Thames is safe. Despite his defensive deficiencies, he's of value to the team as presently constructed, particularly with Nick Johnson out of action for the foreseeable future. Thames has hit a scorching hot .357/.472/.536 thus far, mashes lefties, and figures to be part of DH platoon with Juan Miranda. Miranda too figures to be safe, not only as part of a DH platoon, but in serving as Mark Teixeira's back up, thereby allowing Nick Swisher to stay in right field on a daily basis.

Ramiro Pena also figures to stick around His .211/.244/.237 batting line is anemic and he might benefit from two weeks of steady playing time at Scranton. But as of now Pena is the utility infielder. Kevin Russo could supplant him in that role, but given Russo's inexperience at shortstop, I think the club wants to keep Pena around. Derek Jeter may not take much time off, but when he does the team wants a reliable glove in his place.

Kevin Russo is the most likely to be demoted. His spot is the least secure on the roster, and though he's started three of the last four games in left field, he still has just 16 career appearances in the outfield. That said, his stock appears to be rising, his bat is one the few that's been awake over the past several days, and if the Yankees believe he is capable as an outfielder, his versatility as a super utility player would be extremely valuable on the bench.

All of which means that Randy Winn's job may be in jeopardy. Winn was an unpopular signing from the start. He was a decent player for much of his career, but his numbers took a nose dive last year (.262/.318/.353) and are even worse (.213/.300/.295) through the early part of this season. Though a switch hitter, last year he posted the worst batting line of a right handed hitter against left handed pitching in 55 years, and he's yet to reach base in 11 plate appearances against left handed pitching this year. He still rates well as a defensive corner outfielder, but is no longer capable of playing a passable center field, and made a costly misplay in left field against the Mets Saturday. He's also become a favorite whipping boy/scapegoat amongst the fanbase.

Winn has had only 71 plate appearances this year, so it might be a bit premature to consider him done. But he had a poor 2009 and at thirty six years old it's unlikely he'll bounce back all that much. The crux of the matter comes down to whether or not the organization views Russo as a capable outfielder. If they do, then he becomes a viable fourth outfielder, and a more attractive option than Winn. If they don't, he goes back to Scranton to continue his apprenticeship in the outfield and Winn lives another day.

Either way, Winn hasn't performed well. In addition to Russo, the stocks of Scranton outfielders Chad Huffman, David Winfree, and Colin Curtis all appear to be on the upswing. Most likely, the Yankees will want to option Russo, giving him a little more experience in the outfield and to give Winn a few more weeks to turn things around before cutting him loose. But with the trademarket figuring to loosen up soon, and with several cheaper and likely equally effective options waiting in Scranton, Randy Winn's days with the Yankees are likely numbered.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Game 40 Recap

1. Jason Bartlett launched the second pitch of the game over the left field fence. 1-0 Rays.

2. The Rays loaded the bases in the third with two walks sandwiching a hit by pitch. With one out, Evan Longoria hit a sacrifice fly to right. 2-0 Rays.

3. In the fourth, B.J. Upton and Hank Blalock started the frame with infield singles, then moved up on a double steal. A ground rule double from John Jaso plated them both. Two batters later and two outs later, Carl Crawford doubled Jaso in. After a walk to Ben Zobrist, Longoria singled Crawford home. 6-0 Rays.

4. A leadoff walk to Alex Rodriguez and a single by Robinson Cano set the Yankees up with runners on the corners and no one out in the bottom of the fourth. Francisco Cervelli brought A-Rod home with a sacrifice fly, but Wade Davis shut it down from there. 6-1 Rays.

5. Alex Rodriguez led off the sixth as well. After falling behind 3-0, Wade Davis battled back to a full count. A-Rod then fought off four straight 3-2 offerings before absolutley destroying the tenth pitch of the at bat for a home run that landed in Monument Park. 6-2 Rays.

Robinson Cano followed with a single, but was erased on a double play off the bat of Francisco Cervelli. The Yankees loaded the bases when Marcus Thames singled, a Juan Miranda walked, and Randy Winn reached on an error, but Derek Jeter ended the threat by grounding out to short.

6. The wheels completely came off in the eighth, and as you might expect Boone Logan had something to do with it. It was comically bad. Logan walked Jaso, then surrendered a double to pinch hitter Sean Rodriguez, scoring Jaso. Logan gave way to Mark Melancon who offered little relief. Rodriguez scored on a single from Barlett, who then took second on a somewhat errant throw from emergency right fielder Ramiro Pena. Bartlett moved to third on Crawford's flyout, then scored on Zobrist's basehit. Evan Longoria followed with a single of his own. Brett Gardner made a circus catch on the warning track to retire Carlos Pena, but it allowed Zobrist to tag and score from second base. B.J. Upton followed with a double, but it mercifully bounced into the stands for a ground rule double, keeping Longoria from scoring. 10-2 Rays.

7. Too little, too late for the Yankees in the ninth. After making two quick outs, Brett Gardner doubled, Mark Teixeira walked, and A-Rod reached on an infield single. Robinson Cano laced his fourth hit of the night to score Gardner, and a walked to Francisco Cervelli forced in Tex. Ramiro Pena followed with a sinking liner to center field, that B.J. Upton misplayed, allowing Pena to take second and two runs to score. A Juan Miranda strikeout ended the game. Final score 10-6 Rays.

IFs, ANDs & BUTs
  • Hands down, this was the ugliest game of the year. Bad, just bad in all facets of the game. It happens. It doesn't mean it's time to hit the panic button. But man, it was tough to watch.

  • Worse than the game is the post-game news that Jorge Posada has a hairline fracture in his foot and will miss three to four weeks. More on this tomorrow. The Yankees will need to add a catcher, most likely Chad Moeller, to the 40 man roster and recall him. The 40 man is currently full, so a spot will have to be cleared.

  • Adding injury to insult (and all the other injuries), Marcus Thames worked a seeing eye single in the sixth, then sprained his ankle when he stepped on his own bat while running to first. He's day-to-day.

  • Want to hear me beat a dead horse? Because the Yankees are carrying thirteen pitchers and because Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher are injured enough not to play but not badly enough to be DL'd, they had a one man bench last night. The Thames injury forced Ramiro Pena, he with seven minor league appearances in CF and one Major League inning in RF, to take over in right.

  • The Rays ran at will. They stole six bases and advanced on flyouts four different times.

  • As frustrating as this game was, not to mention the game before, and the bullpen meltdowns on Sunday and Monday, let's keep a little perspective. The bullpen is a little banged up. Four of the Opening Day starters are on the DL or on the bench with injuries. Of the remaining five starters, three of them are slumps of various severity. Every season has it's rough patches. Nothing that's happened this week has derailed the year.

  • Wade Davis went five and two thirds for the Rays, marking just the eighth time this year a Tampa Bay starter didn't complete six.

  • After leading the AL in walks last year, A.J. Burnett entered his start against the Twins last Friday with a walk rate that was nearly a career best. He walked four that night, four more tonight, and now sits at 3.4 BB/9, closer to his career average of 3.8.

The two clubs meet again tomorrow night, closing out the brief two game set before interleague play starts up. It'll be Andy Pettitte against James Shields.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Game 32 WPA Chart and Notes

Like your first girlfriend said, "That was, uh, quick".
  • The best thing to come out of this on was the fact that Javy Vazquez pitched pretty well. Amazingly well compared to how he had fared thus far in the year. However, he had absolutely no margin for error. He had one bad inning - the sixth - during which he allowed four hits - all singles - and gave up the only two runs of the game. The offense never helped him out before or picked him up after that. It's his fourth loss of the season and the first one he really didn't deserve.

  • Rick Porcello was working quickly and the Yanks were hacking away. He induced 15 grounders to just four fly balls and struck out two over seven scoreless innings. Ricky needed just 91 pitches to cruise through seven innings and aside from loading the bases with two outs in the second, was never in much trouble.

  • Randy Winn had a good day at the plate, walking twice and knocking a single (one of only four hits for the Yanks).

  • Ramiro Pena left five men on base and made four outs in three plate appearances. Yeah, he was really bad, but the only reason we are focusing on him is that Vazquez, Winn and Boone Logan all managed not to suck.

  • Why did Kevin Russo pinch run and not Greg Golson in the 9th inning? For that matter, why wasn't Russo starting at 3B instead of Pena?

  • That was the first time the Yanks were shutout this year. In fact, they had scored three or more runs in every game except one so far. It was bound to happen eventually, I suppose.

  • At just two and a quarter hours, this was the second shortest game of the year (not counting the rain-shortened game against the Rangers at the Stadium). CC Sabathia's complete game loss in Oakland against Dallas Braden was the quickest.

  • Apparently there will be no more roster moves today, meaning that Jonathan Albaladejo and Juan Miranda are both stuck in limbo. Or Detroit, which would be worse. Good luck with your doubleheader, Scranton!
Back with the preview for the late game in a few.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Game 26 Recap

1. Garrett Atkins led off the top of third with a single, and Rhyne Hughes followed with a walk. Number nine hitter Cesar Izturis laid down a sacrifice, but Burnett's throw tailed into the baseline, making catching it a dangerous proposition for Robinson Cano. The ball caromed down the right field line, allowing Atkins score and giving the O's two runners in scoring position with no one out. Burnett responded by striking out Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters to escape the jam without further damage. 1-0 Orioles.

2. The Yankees wasted little time in answering in the bottom half of the frame. Francisco Cervelli lined the first pitch of the inning to center field. Adam Jones gambled on a dive, and when it failed to pay off, Cervelli stood on third base with his first Major League triple. A groundout from Ramiro Pena brought Frankie home, tying the score at 1-1.

3. After falling in an 0-2 hole leading off the fifth, Brett Gardner battled back to work a walk. Cervelli followed, also falling behind 0-2, then dropping a bloop single in shallow right field, moving Gardner to second. Just as the O's had their number nine hitter lay on down on this situation in the third, Ramiro Pena did the same for the Yankees here. And just as A.J. Burnett's throw wound up in right field, so too did that of Brian Matusz. Gardner scored, Cervelli and Pena moved to third and second respectively. After Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher made outs without getting the run home, Mark Teixeira worked a walk. After nearly decapitating Cervelli with a pair of foul balls, A-Rod finally brought the run home with a bases loaded walk. Robinson Cano subsequently flied out of the first pitch of his at bat, ending the threat. 3-1 Yankees.

4. Brett Gardner led off the bottom of the eighth with his sixth infield single of the season, swiped second for his twelfth steal of the year, and moved to third on Cervelli's sacrifice bunt. A sacrifice fly from Ramiro Pena plated the game's final run. 4-1 Yankees.

IF, ANDs & BUTs
  • In the early going, it appeared A.J. Burnett rediscovered his knack for fanning batters, striking out three through two innings, followed by striking out the side to escape a jam in the third. He would whiff only two more over his final four and a third, but his eight Ks are a season high and his curveball looked better than it has all year.

  • I wish Jorge Posada a full and speedy recovery, but hot damn is it fun to watch Francisco Cervelli play. He went three for three tonight with a triple and a bunt single, a successful sacrifice, and two runs scored. On the defensive side, he called his usual strong game, kept the O's honest on the bases, and made a circus catch at the rail to nab a Garrett Atkins pop up and end the top of the fourth.

  • Once again, the Yankees were driven by the bottom of the order. The bottom third of Gardner, Cervelli, and Pena combined to go 4 for 8 with a walk, a triple, a sac fly, two sac bunts, and a stolen base. They scored all four runs and contributed two RBI. Meanwhile the one through four hitters went 1 for 14 with three walks and an RBI.

  • Greg Golson made his Yankees debut as a defensive replacement to start the eighth, replacing Marcus Thames. Golson took over in center, pushing Brett Gardner to left. Both are regarded as excellent center fielders. Gardner likely moved to left given his familiarity there; Golson has made just four career minor league appearances in left. Still, Gardner made sure he was still the boss out there, hauling in the game's final out as the two converged on the fly ball.

  • After a one out eighth inning walk to Nick Markakis brought the tying run to the plate, Damaso Marte relieved Burnett and struck out Matt Wieters. Marte gave way to Alfredo Aceves who gave up a long flyball to the right center field warning track, but Golson hauled it in to retire the side.

  • Wieters went 0 for 4 with 3 Ks. Francisco Cervelli went 3 for 3 with a triple and two runs scored, made the defensive play of the game, dodged two laser beams off the mighty bat of A-Rod, beat the 4, B, and D trains in the great subway race between innings, and flummoxed everyone in the Stadium by hiding the ball under his monstrous batting helmet during the cap game. Just saying. Maybe Frankie needs his own website.

  • Joba Chamberlain recorded the save for the second straight night. It was nice to see him touch 96 on the gun and fan two. But for me, it was more encouraging to see him drop his curveball in a couple times. Perhaps it's nothing, but so long as I'm holding out hope that the guy still will be a starter at some point in the future, it's encouraging to see him use his third pitch from time to time.

  • Mo threw a 15 pitch bullpen before the game and reportedly could have pitched if necessary. I'm sure the club wanted to give him an extra night off

Goodnight Fackers. And goodbye Ernie Harwell; you will be missed. Rest in peace.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Game 24: Cold Roses

Coming off the young season's most frustrating loss, if not the ugliest, the Yankees step into their sixth rubber game in eight series, looking to avoid just their second series loss of 2010.

Phil Hughes makes his fourth start of the season. Thus far, Hughes has been the back of rotation work horse that the club had hoped yesterday's starter would be. He's given up two runs or fewer in each of his three starts, his outing in Oakland two turns ago is the best performance by a Yankee starter this year, and he'd be a perfect 3-0 had he not been betrayed by the bullpen in Baltimore Tuesday night.

Hughes has been successful in six career appearances, two of them starts, against the ChiSox. He's allowed just two runs and ten baserunners in eleven innings of work, while striking out a batter per frame. The four relief appearances came last year, with Hughes taking the tough-luck loss in one of them, despite allowing just a single run and three baserunners in five innings of work. The two starts came in 2008, and despite Hughes' poor performance overall in that campaign, he was successful against Chicago, allowing one run and seven baserunners over six innings. His first start was limited to two innings thanks to a rain delay, his second to four innings due to it being his first following his months-long stay on the disabled list.

Current Chicago batters have good numbers against Hughes, over just 41 plate appearances, with the bulk of the success accumulated by Alex Rios and Mark Teahan during their time with Toronto and Kansas City respectively. Hughes' 2.00 ERA is outperforming both his FIP and xFIP, largely due to his success at stranding the relatively high number of free passes he's issued. If he's going to sustain his early season success, he'll have to reduce that walk rate. Chicago is currently sixth in the AL in BB%, at 9.9%.

For the White Sox, lefty Mark Buehrle gets the ball. Unlike Hughes, Buehrle's numbers suggest he's been a bit unlucky, as his 4.68 ERA is far worse than his 3.91 FIP. The main culprit Buehrle thus far has been a major drop in his strikeout rate, currently at just 3.58 per 9, well down from his career mark of 5.16 per 9. The Yanks teed off on Buehrle in two starts last year. They knocked him around for seven runs, twelve hits, and a loss in four and third during a July start in the Second City. Buehrle held them to just two runs over six innings in the Bronx a month later, despite allowing ten baserunners, but the Yanks still escaped with the victory. Over his ten year career, Buehrle is just 1-6 with 6.43 ERA in ten starts against the Yankees.

In roster news, Curtis Granderson's groin injury has landed him on the DL. Yesterday's combination of another disaster start from Javier Vazquez and some more questionable relief choices from Joe Girardi has left the bullpen a bit short today. As a result, Mark Melancon has been recalled to take Granderson's roster spot. The promising right hander struggled with his control over his first 16.1 Big League innings last year, but has dominated AAA over parts of three seasons. Eventually the Yankees will want another outfielder on the roster to replace Granderson, but for today Melancon is needed. If he impresses, he could pitch his way into a job given the current uncertainty in middle relief.

Yesterday's game was ugly and frustrating on a number of levels, but one of the great things about baseball is that each day brings a new game. The Phranchise has a chance to right the ship this afternoon, and keep the Yankees rolling along at .667 clip. Just like shaking off a Sunday morning hangover, it's time to put away Saturday's bruises, put on your Sunday shoes, and get back in the win column.

Mirrors in the room go black and blue
On a Sunday morning in Saturday shoes
We don't choose who we love
We don't choose

Lights over the midway melt on the street
In her Sunday shoes, with her Saturday feet
She don't love who she chose
She don't need what she use

Daylight comes and exposes
Saturday's bruises and cold roses
Cold roses

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Yeesh. Already down Granderson, the lineup is further punchless today, with Alex Rodriguez getting the day off. Ramiro Pena plays third, and Nick Swisher, who has destroyed Mark Buehrle over his career, takes the clean up spot. As expected, Brett Gardner slides over to center, and with the lefty Buehrle on the bump, Marcus Thames gets the start in left. Let's hope that he keeps up his lefty mashing and that the White Sox keep the ball out of left field. Nick Johnson returns to the line up and the two spot in the order; he'll play first today with Tex getting a half day off as the DH.
Jeter SS
Johnson 1B
Teixeira DH
Swisher RF
Cano 2B
Posada C
Thames LF
Gardner CF
Pena 3B

White Sox:
And speaking of punchless, here's the Fightin' Ozzies lineup, featuring not one, not two, not three, not even four, but five batters with an OPS+ of less than 65, and four guys with an OPS+ under 45. Oh, and Alex Rios, who has great numbers against Hughes, is not in the lineup, as he attends the birth of his child. I hope Alex is nicer to his offspring than he was to this guy.
Mark Kotsay RF
Gordon Beckham 2B
Andruw Jones CF
Paul Konerko 1B
Mark Teahan 3B
Carlos Quentin DH
A.J. Pierzynski C
Alexei Ramirez SS
Juan Pierre LF

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Game 12 Recap

[WPA data via FanGraphs]

1. The Yankees took an early lead in the bottom of the first without the benefit of a hit. True to form, Rich Harden limited balls in play by hitting Brett Gardner (who then stole second), striking out Nick Johnson, hitting Mark Teixeira, and walking Alex Rodriguez. Robinson Cano followed with a sacrifice fly to make it 1-0 Yankees.

2. The Rangers bounced back in the third to take a 2-1 lead. Matt Treanor led off with a single, was bunted to second, and scored on a double from Elvis Andrus. Michael Young then drove Andrus in with a base hit. Mark Teixeira prevented further damage by making a nice leaping catch on hotshot off the bat of Josh Hamilton.

3. The Yankees responded quickly in the bottom half of the inning. Following his defensive gem, Teixeira led off with his first home run of the year to even the score. A single by Jorge Posada was sandwiched between walks by A-Rod and Curtis Granderson. With two outs, Ramiro Pena came to the plate and El Nino lined a base hit to right, making it 4-2 Yankees.

4. Posada capped the scoring in the seventh, lining a shot into the right field seats for the Yankees' second inning-opening solo shot on the afternoon, making it 5-2 Yankees.

IFs, ANDs, & BUTs
  • Our preview proved somewhat prophetic in outlining how the starters would fair today. Rich Harden had something resembling his first start of the year, needing 94 pitches to go just three and two thirds. He faced 23 batters, hitting two, walking six, fanning five, and allowing a home run. As such, just nine balls were put in play against him.

  • As for Pettitte, he struggled a bit through the early innings, then went into lock down mode. He didn't allow a hit after the third inning and retired twelve in a row from the fourth into the eighth. He needed 65 pitches to get through his first four innings of work and just 42 to get through his final four frames. Perhaps the Rangers were in a hurry to get to Boston.

  • Nick Swisher intentionally overthrew the cutoff man in the third, despite having virtually no chance of gunning down Elvis Andrus at the plate. The mental gaffe allowed Michael Young to take second, and if not for the nice stab by Teixeira, Josh Hamilton's liner would have plated Young. I'm not as bearish on Swisher's defense as many others are, but such mental errors are not excusable. Swisher made some similar decisions last season and unfortunately this isn't his first such offense in the young 2010 season.

  • In addition to his grab in the third, Teixeira made a nice diving stop to end the fourth inning.

  • While Teix's defense was top notch, Texas' defense continued to be suspect, as was the official scoring. David Murphy allowed a can of corn off the bat of Jorge Posada to fall in for a base hit in the bottom of the third, and second baseman Joaquin Arias let a slow roller off the bat of Brett Gardner trickle under his glove to start the eighth.

  • In addition to his stolen base in the first, Gardner swiped another in the sixth and was picked off/caught stealing in the eighth. It was just the seventh time in his career he's been caught in 53 attempts, good for a very impressive 86.8% success rate.

  • Alex Rodriguez stole a base of his own, pilfering third in the fourth inning. Matt Treanor's Dustin Nippert's throw had him dead to rights, but an inventive slide from A-Rod delivered him to the bag safely.

  • Mo was downright nasty in the ninth, catching both Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis looking to end the game.

  • Former Yankee reliever Tanyon Sturtze was in the house, with some choice Legends Seats behind the Yankee dugout. He was given an inordinate amount of face time on YES, as John Flaherty spoke about Sturtze being one of his favorite teammates. All Sturtze's camera time allowed me to see that he waved and ate exclusively with his left arm; his right is apparently still unusable thanks to Joe Torre.

See you in the morning Fackers.

Game 12: Dust My Broom

In the first two games of this series, the Rangers have been betrayed by their defense. They've been charged with one error in both games, leading to two unearned runs, but if not for some home cooking from official scorer Bill Shannon, the error total would be closer to five or six. If not for Texas' lackluster leather on Friday night, the Yankees may not have escaped with a rain shortened victory.

Texas may have a cure for what ails them this afternoon, as Rich Harden takes to the hill. Since making his Major League debut with the A's in 2003, Harden has been a strikeout machine. He's never posted a K/9 below 7.9 and has been at 9.5 or above for the last four seasons, including 10.9 and 11.0 in the last two years. Harden's also fairly adept at giving out free passes, posting walk rates greater than league average in all but one of his seven seasons, and allowing 35% of his career baserunners against via the walk. Those factors combined mean that Harden generally puts less pressure on his defense than the average pitcher.

An extreme example of this occurred in Harden's first start this year, against Toronto on April 7th. Harden went only 3.2 IP, but struck out 8, walked 5, plunked a batter, and surrendered a gopher ball as the only hit he allowed. He faced 19 batters and only four of them put the ball in play. And even at that, his defense still made an error behind him, with Michael Young booting a ball at third. Crash Davis would say Harden was a little less fascist his next time out, only stirking out three over six innings, and allowing 18 balls in play, with another error made behind him.

For the Yankees, Andy Pettitte will make his third start of the season. Over the past several years we've seen Pettitte morph into the stereotypical crafty lefty, seemingly working his way into and out of trouble every other inning, but rarely getting touched up. Never has that been more true than in his first two starts this year. Through twelve innings of work, Pettitte has surrendered eleven hits, issued six base on balls, and hit a batter. But he's yet to allow a home run, and has managed to strand a ridiculous 94.4% of those 18 runners. With 17 runners left on base and just a single earned run on his ledger, Pettitte boasts a sparkling 0.75 ERA despite a 4.46 xFIP.

In contrast to Aprils past, the Yankees have been moving right along in the early goings of the 2010 season. They've won their first four series for the first time since 1926, and today, they go for their first sweep of the young season. It's been a happy home stand, with four wins already in the bank. Time to dust off the brooms and then leave home for a West Coast road trip. To help us on our way, here's the King of the Slide Guitar:



I'm getting up soon in the morning, I believe I'll dust my broom
I'm getting up soon in the morning, I believe I'll dust my broom
I quit the best gal I'm loving
Now my friends can get my room

I believe, I believe my time ain't long
I believe, I believe my time ain't long
I ain't gonna leave my baby
And break up my happy home
-Lineups-

Yankees:
Derek Jeter is nursing a head cold, so he gets the day off. Brett Gardner moves up to the lead off spot and Ramiro Pena gets his first start of the year, taking Jeter's spot at short and Gardner's customary spot at the bottom of the order. The rest of the lineup remains as usual.
Gardner LF
Johnson DH
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Posada C
Granderson CF
Swisher RF
Pena SS
Rangers:
Some changes for Texas today. Lefties Julio Borbon and Chris Davis hit the bench for the first time this series. Taylor Teagarden, still hitless on the year, and Joaquin Arias are also not starting. Josh Hamilton slides over to center; Elvis Andrus, like Brett Gardner, moves from the nine hole to the leadoff spot. David Murphy, Ryan Garko, Matt Treanor, and Andres Blanco all see their first action for the weekend.
Elvis Andrus SS
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Nelson Cruz RF
Ryan Garko 1B
David Murphy LF
Matt Treanor C
Andres Blanco 2B

Friday, March 26, 2010

The Flexibility Of The 2010 Bench


Good morning Fackers. Late last August, the Yankees rolled into to Fenway park for their final visit to Boston on the season. The Yankees entered the weekend set with a 6.5 game lead in the AL East, so the series was an important one - particularly for the Red Sox. Though the Yankees had lined up Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, and CC Sabathia to start the three games, the rest of the pitching staff was in a state of flux. The plan to limit Joba Chamberlain's innings down the stretch left him, Sergio Mitre, and Chad Gaudin in various states of limited availability.

Given that, Joe Girardi's love of playing the match ups, and the tendency of Yankee-Red Sox games to turn into four and half hour slug fests, the team decided to add an extra pitcher for the series, activating the long-disabled Damaso Marte and sending down Ramiro Pena. The move left the Yankees with a 13 man pitching staff and a three man bench, consisting of Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston Jr, and Jose Molina.

With Brett Gardner's broken thumb keeping him on the DL and Pena on his way to Scranton, Hairston was left as the primary back up at 2B, 3B, SS, and CF. When nagging injuries took Johnny Damon out of the line up for the series' first two games, the bench was truncated even further, leading to some misadventures for Eric Hinkse in front of the Green Monster.

Complicating matters, the first two games were absolute laughers. The Yankees dropped a 20-11 hurting on the Sox in game one, then the Sox returned the favor wth a 14-1 beatdown in game two. With such lopsided contests taking place relatively late in the season, it would have been nice for the team to be able to rest pivotal, older players like 35 year old Derek Jeter, 38 year old Jorge Posada, and 34 year old Alex Rodriguez, who was just months removed from hip surgery. Instead, the truncated bench left the Yankees with very few options. Posada caught every inning of the two games. With only Hairston on the bench, Jeter played all of game one while A-Rod got the late innings off, while game two saw Hairston sub for Jeter and Jose Molina make his only career appearance at third base so that A-Rod could get some rest.

Why do I bring all this up some seven months later? Because Francisco Cervelli played two innings at third base in Wednesday's game. Unlike Molina's stint there last year, this was planned. All Yankee catchers take groundballs at some infield position (Jesus Montero taking grounders at first created a minor stir earlier in Spring Training), and with Cervelli being a converted shortstop, there was little harm in throwing him at the hot corner during the late innings of an exhibition game.

By the time the 2010 season is over, Wednesday's little experiment will likely be long forgotten, but I think it was important. With older, valuable players like Jeter, A-Rod, and Posada amongst the regulars, it would be nice if the Yankees had the luxury of resting them in blowouts. Last August's series in Boston showed some of the pitfalls of an inflexible roster. Whereas that situation was the result of injuries and a bloated pitching staff, the 2010 Yankees are shaping up to be less flexible by design.

Gone are Hairston and Hinkse from last year's bench, both of whom were capable of playing both the infield and outfield. In their place are Randy Winn and presumably Marcus Thames, who are exlcusively outfielders, though Thames has minimal experience at first base. As such, Ramiro Pena is the lone utility infielder on the club, meaning that only one of Jeter or A-Rod could be rested at any one time. This shouldn't be a big deal, unless some injury should befall one of them in the late innings on a laugher. Giving Cervelli some experience at third might serve the team well in the future.

As for Cervelli, there is value in it for him as well. His lack of a potent bat, even by catcher standards, has him universally projected as a career back up. With Jesus Montero and Austin Romine not far off, and Gary Sanchez, JR Murphy, and Kyle Higashioka behind them, increasing Cervelli's versatility will increase his chances of long term survival with the Yankees and will increase his value overall. Getting him some experience at another position was something we touched upon last year when Cervelli was demoted.

There is a further option still in camp who could also increase roster flexibility. It is all but assured that Marcus Thames will win the final outfield spot. But David Winfree is still in camp. Just 24, Winfree has spent the entirety of his seven year minor league career in the Twins system, reaching AAA last season. Like Thames, Winfree is right handed bat with some pop, averaging nearly 15 HR per season over the last five years. Though he's spent the last two years exclusively as an outfielder, Winfree has extensive minor league experience at third base and first base. From a flexibility perspective, Winfree could offer the Yankees more than Thames, but Thames bat and track record will likely earn him the job.

But Winfree is still young, and former scout Frankie Piliere feels he has a future ahead of him. We may yet see him on the Bronx during the 2010 season.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Small Decision Made, Big Decision Looming

Good morning Fackers. So today is the big day. We will finally find out the winner of The Most Important Fifth Starter Competition in History, and then everyone will collectively complain about the results. And frankly, at this point, I don't know what the right decision is. I'm just thankful that we're nearing a decision, which means were close to moving on from this for the time being. I just hope that whatever choice is made leaves both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in a position to reach their full potential in 2010 and beyond.

There were some roster decisions made last night, as another round of cuts took place. Pitchers Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo, infielders Juan Miranda and Kevin Russo, and outfielder Greg Golson were all optioned out. All should start the year at AAA. Russo's departure ensures what we speculated Tuesday: Ramiro Pena will be the utility infielder to start the season. Miranda and Golson had no real chance of making the team.

Melancon and Albaladejo had an outside shot of winning a job in the bullpen. We've seen both before and I'm sure we'll see both at various points in 2010. I'm still very bullish on Melancon's future. Their departures leave left-handed pitchers Boone Logan and Royce Ring as the only legitimate threats to Sergio Mitre nailing down the final spot on the pitching staff, though naming Hughes the fifth starter and placing Chamberlain in the Scranton rotation would leave room for both Mitre and a second lefty in the pen.

We'll be back later with a little more unconventional roster speculation.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Roster Taking Shape

With the return of Jamie Hoffmann to the Dodgers on Monday, the waiving of Chad Gaudin today, and the now daily reassignments to minor league camp, the Yankees Opening Day roster is easily predictable at this point. Barring any injuries or an unexpected trade, these are the guys we can expect to see on the third baseline in Boston on Easter night.
Starting Rotation (5)
CC Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Andy Pettitte
Javier Vazquez
Winner of The Most Important Fifth Starter Competition in History

Bullpen (7)
Mariano Rivera
Chan Ho Park
David Robertson
Damaso Marte
Alfredo Aceves
Sergio Mitre
Runner-Up of The Most Important Fifth Starter Competition in History

Catchers (2)
Jorge Posada
Francisco Cervelli

Infielders (6)
Mark Teixeira
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Nick Johnson
Ramiro Pena

Outfielders (5)
Nick Swisher
Curtis Granderson
Brett Gardner
Randy Winn
Marcus Thames
Ostensibly, Pena and Kevin Russo are still competing for the utility infielder spot, but I don't see Russo being able to usurp the incumbent. Outfielders Jon Weber, Greg Golson, and David Winfree are still in Big League camp, but none seem to fit the profile of what the team is looking for from the final outfield spot: Weber is left handed, Golson is speed/defense guy with a poor bat, and Winfree has no Major League experience and less than 500 PA above AA.

I don't suppose Mitre is guaranteed a job, and Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo are still around, but the club appears to be impressed with Mitre's strong spring, he has a track record with Joe Girardi, and his presence as the long man will allow the club to use Alfredo Aceves in more critical relief roles. I'd rather see Gaudin than Mitre in the long man role, but I am curious to see how Mitre's sinker plays out of the pen.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Hairston Signs With Padres

Good morning Fackers. Yet another left field/bench option came off the board yesterday, as Jerry Hairston joined his brother Scott in San Diego by signing a one year $2.125M deal with the Padres. According to Buster Olney, the Yankees never even made Hairston an offer, despite reports last week that the club was in "serious talks" with him.

Acquired at the trade deadline last year, Hairston was a useful player for the Yankees, capable of playing each infield and outfield position. Losing Hairston certainly isn't going to ruin the 2010 season. The Yankees have four young utility infielder options on their 40 man roster in Ramiro Pena, Kevin Russo, Reegie Corona, and Eduardo Nunez. And even if the slim chance of Johnny Damon returning doesn't pan out, there are several viable left field platoon options on the free agent market in Reed Johnson, Xavier Nady, and Rocco Baldelli.

What doesn't exist on the free agent market is a supersub utility player with the defensive versatility of Hairston. Such a player isn't a must have for the Yankees, but given their roster construction, it is a nice luxury to have.

The Yankees figure to have a four man bench next season. One spot will be earmarked for Francisco Cervelli as the back up catcher. For better or worse, a second spot has to be reserved for Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffmann, who currently profiles as the fourth outfielder. A third spot will go to a utility infielder, likely one of the four above with Pena and Russo appearing to be the leading candidates at present. That leaves just one spot, which will likely be filled by another outfielder, most likely a right handed platoon partner for Brett Gardner and/or Curtis Granderson.

However, assuming the Yankees elect to keep Hoffmann and sign another outfielder for that fourth bench spot, they are left with a single utility infielder on the roster. Given the quality of the Yankees' starting infield, this isn't a major concern. But, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter are two of the three most valuable position players on the team - if not the two most valuable. They will be 34 and 35, respectively, on Opening Day. While both should be in the line up daily, having a second infielder on the bench gives the Yankees the option of resting both, rather than choosing to rest just one, in blowout games, on turf, day games after night games, etc. It's not a situation that should arise often, but it does arise on occasion, as evidenced by Jose Molina's cameo at third base last year.

Both Russo and Pena have minimal outfield experience, but I can't imagine the Yankees carrying one of them as a second infielder in that fourth bench spot because they feel either could also serve as realistic outfield option.

As we saw last season, the bench changes over the course of the year. Hairston and Eric Hinske were the two main contributors off the bench last season and both were mid-season pick ups. Whatever team leaves Tampa in early April assuredly won't be the same that finishes up in October. But for the time being the Yankees have lost a solid, versatile bench option in Jerry Hairston. Best of luck to him in San Diego.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Would Hairston Be "Perfect" For The Yankees?

As mentioned earlier this morning, the Yankees are rumored to be "in serious talks" to bring back Jerry Hairston, Jr. Rob Neyer contends that he would be the "perfect Yankee", but I'm not so sure.

The source of that rumor was a tweet by ESPN's Chris Singleton, who added that the Yankees would use the 33 year old utility man to "spell Jeter and Rodriguez and platoon in left possibly". Hairston is capable of playing every position 3-9, but the problem is that he's not particularly well-suited to any of the three tasks Singleton listed.

Although he's right handed, Hairston doesn't make much sense as a platoon partner for Brett Gardner. In his career against left handers, Hairston has put up a weak line of .264/.323/.386, which is better than Gardner but much worse than Reed Johnson (.313/.378/.463) who is also available. Hairston does figure to be an asset defensively, but just how much of one is largely up to your imagination. His 37.7 UZR/150 in LF is simply too good to be true considering it's based on only 132 games and 594 innings there.

Hairston has similar sample size issues with his defense on the left side of the infield, but not the same encouraging results. He's started only 46 games at 3B (40 of them last year) and made 10 errors in that time. Shortstop is a relatively new position to him as well, having logged only 533 career innings there with almost all of them coming in the last two years. The initial numbers say his range isn't great at either position.

Additionally, the Yankees already have four utility infielders on the 40 man roster - Ramiro Pena, Eduardo Nunez, Kevin Russo & Reegie Corona. Hairston figures to contribute more offensively than any of them, but Pena in particular is a far superior defender at both short and third.

Joe from River Ave. Blues explained how Hairston, acting as a back up infielder and outfielder, would free up a spot on the bench. Since the Yankees 12 man pitching staff affords room for only four extra position players, flexibility is at a premium. But production is the end goal, not flexibility.

While Hairston could play a number of positions, he doesn't excel at any of them - at least not in the capacity the Yankees would utilize him. The upshot is that he might save a roster spot by performing multiple functions for the Yanks, but that would only be useful if they could fill that spot with a player who can offer something that Hairston can't. Are the Yanks willing to spend a couple million dollars on a guy who is a bridge to signing another bench player? Because that's the only way it would make sense to bring him back.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Yankees Top Ten Prospects Announced

Baseball America released their list of the Yankees' top ten prospects today. Head over and give it a read; lots of good stuff there.

Some thoughts:
  • The Yankees top talent is at all the right places: on the mound and up the middle skill positions. The top ten is comprised of five pitchers, four catchers, and a center fielder. Don't get too hung up as to where there will be room for everyone. These are the types of players that are the most valuable trade chips.

  • There is 50% turnover from last year's top ten list. Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, and Mark Melancon all graduated to the Major League level, though I believe Melancon can still be considered a prospect due to not having accrued enough MLB service time. Austin Jackson was the key chip in the Curtis Granderson trade, and Bradley Suttle dropped off the list after missing all of last year due to shoulder injuries.

  • The list is a testament to how well the Yankees have rebuilt their system in recent years. Slade Heathcott and JR Murphy are the Yankees top two 2009 draft picks. Gary Sanchez was the organization's top 2009 international signee. Jeremy Bleich was the Yankees top signed pick from the 2008 draft; Manny Banuelos was an international free agent that year. Andrew Brackman and Austin Romine were the club's top two picks in 2007; Arodys Vizcaino was an international signing that year. Twenty year old Jesus Montero and twenty two year old Zach McAllister have been with the organization the longest, both since 2006.

  • This is a very green list. We know the Yankees are thin at the top levels of the system. None of the 10 players on the list played above AA last year, although McAllister did make a playoff start for AAA Scranton. Montero and Bleich both saw time at AA Trenton last year, but McAllister is the only one on the list to spend all of 2009 above A ball. While it's great to have that much young talent, such talent is also less projectable. There's less probability for prospects who have yet reach AA to pan out.

  • The Yankees top talent is also extremely, extremely young. At 24, Brackman is the oldest of the ten. Sanchez is the youngest at 16 and is one of five players on the list who is not yet twenty years old.

  • The list breaks down to six draft picks and four international signings.

The link also runs down the organization's top skills:
  • Montero of course is rated as both the best hitter and best hitter for power.

  • Mike Dunn, who will be in the mix as a second lefty option out of the bullpen, has the best slider.

  • Despite having four other catchers ranked ahead of him overall, Francisco Cervelli still grades out as the best defensive backstop.

  • Recent Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffmann is listed as the best defensive outfielder.

  • Ramiro Pena is rated as the best defensive infielder; Eduardo Nunez has the best infield arm, and Reegie Corona was given the nod over Kevin Russo as having the best plate discipline. All four are on the 40 man roster and figure to compete for the utility infielder job in Spring Training.

  • Juan Miranda currently sits atop the DH depth chart but is not rated at all by Baseball America.

  • Melky Mesa, a single A outfielder who has less plate discipline than his namesake and is considered a non-prospect, rates as both the fastest baserunner, best athlete, and best outfield arm.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Minor League Monday Tuesday: Reegie Corona

After a Cal Ripken Jr like run of one consecutive week, residual tryptophan levels in my bloodstream were so high that I was too comatose to get the Minor League Monday post ready in time for yesterday. Either that or I had actual work to do that got in the way.

One way or another, a day late and several dollars short, here's this week's look at a Yankee minor leaguer. After profiling recent 40 man roster addition Kevin Russo last week, this week we'll take a look another infielder recently added to the 40 man: Reegie Corona.

Corona is a 23 year old switch hitting second baseman/shortstop who has also seen minimal time at third base and in the outfield in his professional career. A native of Venezuela, the Yankees signed him at age 16 in 2003. He made his stateside debut the following year, seeing action in 36 games for the Yankees entry in the Gulf Coast Rookie League. He split 2005 between short season Staten Island and high-A Tampa, 2006 between low-A Charleston and Tampa, and 2007 between Tampa and AA Trenton.

After spending all of 2008 in AA, Corona was selected by the Seattle Mariners with the second pick of last year's Rule 5 Draft. Corona couldn't crack the M's 25 man roster though, and he was returned to the Yankees just prior to Opening Day. Assigned to AAA for the first time, Corona struggled miserably at the plate, batting just .200/.241/.300 in 177 PA. Shipped back to AA for the third time, the light hitting Corona turned in the best offensive performance of his career, posting a .287/.397/.397 line over his 368 AA PA. His performance earned him mid-season All-Star honors in the Eastern League.

Corona is currently playing winter ball for Los

Navegantes del Magallenes in his native Venezuela where he is building upon his new found offensive prowess by hitting .352/.477/.592 through 27 games.

Recent offensive surge aside, Corona is reputed for his glove work and his speed. He's demonstrated himself to be a slick fielder at second base and capable at shortstop. He's had three minor league seasons of 20+ stolen bases and has a career success rate of 80.3%.

As we mentioned when looking at the 40 man roster last week, the Yankees currently have a glut of middle infielders on their 40 man roster: Corona, Russo, Ramiro Pena, and Eduardo Nunez. That's about twice as many as they rightly need. Brian Cashman has made allusions to last year's 3 for 1 Nick Swisher trade, suggesting a similar deal could be in the works to open roster space. If so, it's likely the Yankees would try to make at least one of those four part of the deal. Pena and Russo have the best defensive and offensive reputations respectively and are the most Major League ready.

The stories being bandied about in the wake of the 40 man roster additions were that between the Trenton keystone combination Corona was the glove man and Nunez had the bat. That may well be true; I hadn't heard much detail about either prior to their being added to the 4o man. But 2009 was the first good offensive season posted by Nunez. Even with a superior offensive season in 2009, Nunez still posted a lower LD% than Corona, and Nunez' AVG and BABIP seem to be bolstered by an abnormally high GB%. For their careers, Corona's .262/.338/.342 isn't much different than Nunez' .271/.313/.366. Perhaps Nunez' .322/.349/.433 mark in 2009 is the start of a trend for him. But until that's proven, I think I'd prefer Corona's .076 IsoD and 9.88 BB%; plate discipline is not a skill that's easily learned.

For what it's worth, Corona and Ramiro Pena have spent about equal time at the different rungs of the Yankees' ladder and Pena's career minor league line of .255/.315/.320 is poorer than Corona across the board. Pena wasn't nearly as overmatched in the Bigs this year as initially feared, so perhaps there's some hope for Corona as a future utility man. Pena does have a leg up as a natural shortstop, but Corona's plate discipline and speed give him skills that Pena doesn't have. Corona is also 16 months younger.

If he's not traded, Corona is likely headed to Scranton, site of his early 2009 struggles. His 2009 line at Trenton has an equivalent of .270/.374/.369 at Scranton, which given his performance there early last year seems like a bit of a stretch. Perhaps his familiarity with AA his third time through helped with his performance in Trenton last year.

On the off chance Corona reaches the Bronx next year, CAIRO projects him at .246/.325/.335 with a .303 wOBA, CHONE has him at .248/.317/.342, and ZiPS has him at .250/.313/.347 with an OPS+ of 78 while providing very good defense at second and average defense at short. It's worth mentioning that all three projection systems have Corona being offensively superior to Pena and only CHONE shows Russo being offensively superior to Corona.

At the surface, Corona may be the least dazzling of the four utility infielders currently on the 40 man roster. Russo and Nunez are considered the offensively superior players, while Pena is both the incumbent utility guy and the resident defensive whiz. But looking below the surface a bit, Corona may actually have a future as a bench player. He's versatile with a good defensive reputation, has value on the basepaths, good plate discipline, projects to do as well or better as his more offensive counterparts, and may have experienced an offensive breakthrough last year. If the Yankees try to use another "3 for 1" type deal to clear space on the 40 man, they may look to sell high on one or two of the other infield options and give Corona a shot.

(Photos from Mike Ashomore's Thunder Thoughts and the Scranton Time-Tribune)

Monday, November 2, 2009

Molina & Gardner In, Melky Move To Come

That's the news according to LoHud eminating from the press conference with Joe Girardi. Jose Molina will again be catching A.J. Burnett while Brett Gardner gets the start in center over Jerry Hairston, Jr., thankfully. The bottom third of the order was going to be a black hole one way or another, at least they have someone who is comfortable and excellent in center field and fast on the bases in Gardner, should he ever reach them.

Girardi also said that the Yanks are in discussions with the MLB in regards to a roster move with Melky Cabrera. We'll use this post to keep you updated on those developments and separate this stuff from the preview which is going up at 5:30.

Update: 5:26: Again, per LoHud, the Yankees will hear from the MLB concerning their roster move at 6PM.

Update 5:59: Ramiro Pena (not Freddy Guzman as we speculated earlier) will replace Melky Cabrera. Apparently the Yanks value Pena's versatility in the field over Guzman's speed on the bases. Pena has not appeared on the postseason roster at any point up until now but he may be thrust into action early. His best chance of appearing in a game will probably be tonight given that the Yanks are in a National League park and will likely be replacing Jose Molina at some point.

Update 6:27: Interesting tidbit from Mark Feinsand of which I was not aware:
According to the MLB press release, postseason rules provide that injured players can be replaced during the World Series if the severity of the injury, as determined by Major League Baseball, is such that it would require a disabled list assignment during the regular season.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

ALDS Roster Finalized

The ALDS roster has been released. There aren't any major surprises, but there are some decisions that I think might be less than optimal.

Here's how it breaks down:

Pitchers (11): Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Rivera, Hughes, Aceves, Robertson, Coke, Marte, Chamberlain, Gaudin

Catchers (3): Posada, Molina, Cervelli

Infielders (5): Teixeira, Cano, Jeter, Rodriguez, Hairston

Outfielders (5): Damon, Cabrera, Swisher, Gardner, Hinske

DH (1): Matsui

The primary reason to take the "A" series for the ALDS was that the extra off day permits the team to use just three starters. The secondary benefit was that the schedule gave the Yankees the option to carry just 10 pitchers, allowing an extra position player on the bench. While it's hard to argue against the presence of any of the eleven pitchers on the roster, the Yankees have punted on the opportunity to bolster the bench.

The presence of Marte and Coke both is necessitated by the Twins' dangerous lefty combo of Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel. Having both Joba Chamberlain and Chad Gaudin is somewhat redundant, but in my opinion both are equally worthy of a roster spot. However, given the way the schedule shakes out, neither pitcher should be used too heavily unless there is an extremely long game. The off days should allow Mo, Hughes, Alf, DRob and the lefties to pitch the bulk of the relief innings.

The Yankee bench is further shortened by the decision to have Jose Molina catch A.J. Burnett in Game 2. This is the only conceivable reason to have Francisco Cervelli on the roster. I like Cervelli as much as the next Yankee fan, and I hope to see him as the back up catcher next year. But barring something disastrous, he shouldn't see the field in the ALDS.

I have mixed feelings about Molina catching Burnett. While it appears that Burnett works better with Molina, I'm not convinced that's the case nor am I convinced of the reliability of the small sample size of data that supports the decision. Either way, the lack of Posada's bat in the line up, and replacing it with Molina's, could negate any perceived or realized advantage on the other side of the ball.

Furthermore, I hope that Cervelli's presence isn't an indication the Posada will DH when Molina catches. Replacing Matsui with Posada is a wash at best, particularly with Matsui's success against southpaws. Confining Posada to DH duty means that Cervelli, who is an incremental offensive upgrade over Molina, would enter the line up when Molina is inevitably pinch hit for in the late innings. Otherwise, the Yankees will lose the DH if Posada moves from DH to behind the plate.

Cervelli's presence also means that Ramiro Pena and Freddy Guzman are off the roster. I certainly haven't been an advocate of having Guzman present for the express purpose of pinch running. However, his absence likely means that Melky Cabrera will be the centerfielder, with Gardner coming off the bench as a pinch runner. As Jay and I have covered several times over the course of the year, we feel that Gardner is the better choice for centerfield.

Pena on the other hand, offers about the same offensive value as Cervelli, with the added benefit of being more versatile defensively and a better pinch running option. While the Yankees shouldn't need one, let alone two utility infielders, having both Hairston and Pena on the roster would allow them to spell both Jeter and A-Rod should a game get out of hand.

In the end, this is all probably much ado about nothing. Given the talent level at the top of the Yankees roster, if the series comes down to the 24th or 25th man on the roster things are likely pretty well screwed anyway. However, as we discussed at over the course of this season, each roster spot is a resource that needs to be allocated in the best way possible. I'm not convinced that this particular group of 25 is the best use of the Yankees resources for the ALDS.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Yanks Trot Out Hangover Lineup, Still Beat Royals

Despite the hour and 56 minute rain delay and the fact that the Yankees played only three members of their starting lineup (Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada, and Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner), the Bombers not only managed to keep the game interesting for the first six and a half innings, but also to blow it open in the bottom of the seventh.

Chad Gaudin bolstered his case for the postseason roster, again delivering an effective start. This time, he began by allowing only three baserunners over four scoreless innings, at one point retiring consecutive eight batters.

The Yankees led off the bottom of the fourth with three straight hits, a double by Robinson Cano, a single by Jorge Posada and an RBI base knock by Eric Hinske to put the Yanks up 1-0. The Royals struck back immediately when Mark Teahen led off the top of the 5th with a solo shot and tied it up.

Ramiro Pena countered with a solo home run of his own in the bottom half of the inning after Frankie Cervelli singled and was erased on a caught stealing (which was really a botched hit and run). Upon returning to the dugout, Pena received the silent treatment (giddily orchestrated by A-Rod) on a night when he might have actually believed that no one noticed it was the first homer of his career. Cliff from Bronx Banter has the details.

Gaudin gave up the lead once more on a sac fly to Mike Jacobs in the sixth but again, the Yanks snatched it back, this time on a single by Shelly Duncan. Duncan was pinch ran for by Freddy Guzman, who promptly stole second base on the very next pitch although the Royals were clearly expecting it, which is a necessary skill for a guy who is looking to make the postseason 25-man pretty much exclusively as a pinch runner.

Despite retiring the first two men in the 7th inning in order and having thrown only 92 pitches, Joe Girardi once again replaced Gaudin by calling on Damaso Marte to get one out - lefty Alex Gordon.

Trey Hillman took the exact opposite tact in the bottom half of the inning, leaving his starter, Luke Hochevar in, despite having allowed a run in the frame and then loading the bases with no one out. Robinson Cano stepped to the plate against the righty and took full advantage by smashing his second career grand slam and putting the game well out of the reach of the crew from KC.

Alfredo Aceves closed out the night with two perfect innings and the Yanks took a game that they wouldn't have minded giving away. They might not have been the top talent, but guys they sent out there didn't just roll over. Credit Chad Gaudin with a pretty solid performance, Robinson Cano for delivering with the bases loaded but most of all, the Royals for, well, still being the Royals.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Impact Of A Potential Hairston Injury

Early yesterday afternoon the Yankees wrapped up their first series victory in Anaheim since May 2004. The lower portions of the bullpen caste system held a one run lead for two and a third innings. Ian Kennedy returned to a Major League mound for the first time in over a year and just months removd from surgery to repair an aneurysm. A playoff spot is clinched and the magic number for the division and homefield is down to five. But there is one potential drawback from yesterday's victory.

One pitch into his seventh inning plate appearance, Jerry Hairston Jr had to leave the game after feeling a pop in his wrist while taking a practice swing. After the game, Peter Abraham reported that Hairston initially injured the wrist earlier this season while he was still with Cincinnati and both an MRI and a cortisone shot nearly two weeks ago. He is scheduled for another MRI today to assess the extent of the damage.

No one would consider Hairston a key part of the Yankees roster, but he certainly serves a valauble role. While his offensive production has fallen off a bit since his arrival, he's getting on base at a good clip (.346 with the Yanks) and he's suffering from a very low BABIP (.233). But Hairston's greatest value comes in his versatility. A second baseman originally, since coming over at the deadline Hairston has appeared 15 times at third, 8 at short, 9 at both of the corner outfield positions, and twice in center.

It's too early to be jumping to conclusions at this point, but if Hairston's injury is enough to shelve him for October, it would likely take the Yankees two roster spots to replace his versatility. Ramiro Pena was a good candidate to make the post-season roster anyway, and he can easily replace, if not exceeed, what Hairston can offer on infield defense. But while Pena did get seven games of experience in centerfield with Scranton this year, he's yet to play the outfield at the Major League level.

The issue is that the Yankees currently don't have any other real outfield options to replace Hairston. This shouldn't be too big of an issue since Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner will be the fourth outfielder anyway. But if Gardner somehow gets burnt as pinch runner, the Yankees are now looking at a less palatable option as a late inning defensive replacement for Johnny Damon. Eric Hinske is present strictly for his bat. So an injury to Hairston could increase the chances of Freddy Guzman making the post-season roster.

If Hairston is out for an extended period, I'd expect the Yankees to use the season's final week to assess their options. This could mean Pena seeing some time in the outfield or Guzman getting a few starts. Depending upon the extent of the injury and what direction the Yankees decide to go in the aftermath, there's even a chance that we could see Austin Jackson before the season is over, and potentially in the post-season as well.

In commenting on Joba Chamberlain early this week, Brian Cashman seemed to indicate that the Yankees would only carry ten pitchers for the ALDS. If that's the case, they'll have a six man bench at their disposal. Jose Molina, Gardbrera, Hinske, and Pena are virtual locks for those spots right now. How the remaining two openings are filled will hinge upon what happens in an MRI tube at some point today.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Recycling A Thirty-Five Year Old Bad Idea

Good morning Fackers. This is Herb Washington. More specifically, this is Herb Washington's 1975 Topps baseball card, to which our black and white policy here does absolutely no justice (check the color photo here). You may notice that Washington's position on the card is listed as "pinch runner". He is the only man in the 59 year history of Topps baseball cards to have such a position listed on his card.

Washington was a track and field star at Michigan State University in the late sixties and early seventies. He hadn't played baseball since high school, but that didn't deter colorful Oakland A's owner Charlie Finley from signing him to be his "designated runner" in 1974. The A's used six different players as a pinch running specialists during the mid-70s, but Washington was the most famous amongst the six, and was the only one of them to never register a plate appearance nor appear in the field defensively.

In 1974 and 1975, Washington appeared in 105 games for the A's, scored thirty three runs, stole thirty one bases and was caught stealing seventeen times (64.6% SB). He appeared in five post-season games in 1974 without scoring a single run or stealing a base, getting caught stealing in both his ALCS appearances and getting picked off first as the tying run in the ninth inning of Game Two of the World Series.

So why do I bring up one of Charlie Finley's several unorthodox innovations some thirty-five years later? Well, because as I mentioned in yesterday's game preview, the Yankees added Freddy Guzman to the 40 man roster and recalled him from Scranton. Ostensibly, Guzman is an outfielder, but according to Joe Girardi's pre-game comments yesterday, he is now in the mix for the post-season roster as a pinch running specialist.

I'm trying to remain level-headed about this for the moment. With less than three weeks left in the season and relatively comfortable leads in both AL East and homefield races, there isn't any major harm in giving some lesser known quantities a look - even if that quantity is 28 years old and not really a prospect. And while in principal I don't like DFA'ing young unproven commodities (not to mention the PTBNL the Yankees still owe the Orioles from the initial deal) for guys that haven't appeared in the Big Leagues in two years and have washed out of five different organizations since then, losing Anthony Claggett shouldn't be that big of a deal - I just hope he gets an opportunity elsewhere to get his career ERA under 30.00.

However, unless Freddy Guzman proves to be baseball's version of The Flash, can cut the bag perfectly, read every pitcher flawlessly, and get incredible jumps off the pitcher and off the bat each time, I have no interest in him being on the post-season roster.

Giving a guy a look when you have a 40 man roster and essentially are playing with house money is one thing. Carrying a guy as one of twenty-five when each game pushes you closer to the ultimate goal or going home is quite another. Each of one of those post-season roster spots is precious, and they should be filled in such a manner as to optimize a team's chances of winning. Despite Freddy Guzman's considerable speed, he is not a good baseball player and his shortcomings in the other aspects of the game are not made up for by his ability to run from base to base really fast.

I understand that the Yankees have an excellent line up from top to bottom, and that the center field spot will likely be the only one to ever need a pinch hitter. I realize that resident speedster Brett Gardner may occupy that CF spot from time to time and that pinch hitting for him would remove his considerable speed from the game. I realize that Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui are likely to require a pinch runner from time to time. As Brett Gardner reminded us last night, I realize all too well that despite its inherent risks, there are certain points in the game where a stolen base can be exceedingly valuable. I realize that if the Yankees finish with the best record in the league and choose the "A" schedule for the ALDS that they'll only need three starting pitchers and can likely afford to carry an extra position player. But none of that means Freddy Guzman should make the post-season roster.

Freddy Guzman has appeared in 37 MLB games since 2004. He has stolen five bases and has been caught three times. In 95 plate appearances he has hit .213/.263/.281. He has an astounding 25.1 UZR/150 as a center fielder, but given that he's played the equivalent of 18 games there, sample size is a huge issue.

In 2,174 AAA plate appearances since 2003, Guzman has hit an unimpressive .266/.337/.356 and has stolen an impressive 250 bases in 296 attempts (84.5%). In four (four!) AAA stops this year he's swiped 45 in 54 attempts (83.3%) and has hit .223/.272/.294 in 381 PA. Without adjusting for park, that triple slash line has a Major League equivalent of about .194/.236/.251 with 38 SB in 48 attempts. For comparison's sake, Braves pitcher and former Yankee Javier Vazquez is hitting .194/.231/.242 this year and he's only about the fifteenth best hitting pitcher in the NL. In other words, save for on the bases, Freddy Guzman has no discernible value, and given the importance of offense and defense relative to base running, his excellence in this one facet of the game does not justify his presence on the roster.

I imagine the Yankees will carry 11 pitchers in the post-season, potentially even 10 in the ALDS . That would leave them with a five or six man bench. Gardbrera, Jose Molina, Eric Hinske, and Jerry Hairston Jr are mortal locks for four of those spots. Candidates for the remaining spot(s) include Ramiro Pena, Shelley Duncan, potentially even Francisco Cervelli, Juan Miranda, or any number of players at Scranton not currently on the 40 man (Austin Jackson, Kevin Russo) who are superior to Freddy Guzman.

While the remaining options certainly don't offer the speed Guzman does, several of them are not slow and offer value that Guzman does not. Pena is a sure handed fielder, provides another middle infield option for substitutions in blowouts, can play the outfield in a pinch, and is no slouch on the bases. Duncan could be a weapon off the bench against a left handed relief specialist and can the play OF corners or first. Miranda could be a dangerous bat against right handed pitching.

Guzman would be a waste of a roster spot. The Yankees will have sufficient pinch runners in the back-up center fielder, Hairston, and (hopefully) Pena. All of them offer value beyond speed on the bases. If the Yankees insist upon carrying someone strictly as a pinch runner, maybe they should consider Edwar Ramirez - at the very least he could eat up a few innings too if a game were to get out of hand.