Back From A Boring Weekend

Good morning, Fackers. On Friday afternoon, Joe called this past weekend the best one in sports. There are some other candidates, namely the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, but I would probably give my vote to the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. There are four games on, which start late Saturday afternoon and end at a reasonable time on Sunday giving you a healthy amount of meaningful, intense football to consume. Well, on paper anyway.

Just like the games Wildcard Round, there were three unwatchable tilts that were decided before the first half was over and the one game that was close featured only 10 points in the first three quarters. The average margin of victory through the first 8 games of the playoffs this season has been 17.1 points with only the two aforementioned match-ups being decided by less than one touchdown. Four games have been decided by 30 points or more. Last year, no playoff games were that lopsided.

According to this study, we've watched roughly 88 minutes of postseason football action thus far and I've venture to guess that about 10 of those have been worth paying attention to.

I'm not sure if other Yankee fans can relate, but I've felt detached from the NFL season this year. It was quite the opposite from 2008, the Giants had started off the defense of their Super Bowl victory 4-0 when the Yankees were clearing out their lockers. There was real excitement surrounding that team and although they bumbled a Monday night game against the Browns, they cruised to 11-1 before things fell apart. And when the Giants lost to the Eagles in the Divisional Round, it really hurt.

When the Yanks won the World Series this year, the Giants were already halfway through their season. At that point, their stock had already risen and fell. They were 5-3 after losing 3 in a row and ended up closing out the season a meager 3-5 including two disgraceful losses by more than 30 points in Weeks 16 & 17. They had been eliminated from the playoffs for three weeks so at that point, it didn't really matter.

Now that were halfway through a forgettable postseason and I couldn't care less about how the rest of it turns out. I just hope the Vikings lose this Sunday so we are spared the agony of the two week festival that will be known as "Favreganza" leading up to the Super Bowl.

There's good news, however. It's hard to believe, but pitchers and catchers report exactly one month from today. The Yankees' full squad will join six days later. It's more symbolic than anything since workouts in Tampa don't offer much entertainment to fans - even ones who attend them in person - but there's a light at the end of the tunnel.

Are Throws To First A Waste Of Time?

You know the scene. The Yankees are on the road, it's late in the game and the opposing team puts a speedster on base. The pitcher throws over to first once, the runner retreats safely. He throws over again and it's not even close this time. The crowd starts to boo. And a third time. The boos get louder.

Even as a fan of the team throwing to first, I sometimes get annoyed with the process. It breaks up the flow of the game, it seemingly never works, and yet teams continually do it. Is it actually effective as a tactic or is it another practice in baseball that's done because it's always been done?

As of late June (can't find more recent stats), both Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett were near the top of the league in pick-off attempts. Burnett had a game this year against the Angels in which he threw to first base 24 times in 7 innings. They do get results though, as Pettitte is tied for the AL lead with 8 pickoffs this year while Burnett is not too far behind with 5. However, Burnett has more pickoffs where the runner was tagged out diving back to first base (4) than Pettite (3), probably because runners are more wary of Andy's move. Five of Pettitte's PO's were of the variety that CC Sabathia recorded against Jacoby Ellsbury last Sunday Night in which the runner was going on motion and got caught stealing.

We all know that pickoffs are pretty rare. Pettitte has allowed 178 runners to reach first base this year via single, walk or HBP and has nabbed less than 5% of them, or fewer than one every 3 starts. Much of the time the throws to the base are called from the bench and it's not especially close. You essentially never see a runner picked off the second time the pitches tosses over to first base.

But yet it's still done. Does it have a purpose even if they aren't catching the runners getting too greedy with their lead very often?

John Dewan says yes (h/t BBTF). When looking at data from 2002-2009, they've found that a runner's stolen base percentage actually does decrease when one throw to first base has been made. It goes down slightly with each throw after that, but not significantly. Check out his post for the numbers.

Runners steal at a 65% clip against Pettitte and Burnett which means the league is ineffective by sabermetric standards at swiping with them on the mound. Whether we like it or not, all those throws to to first base do serve a purpose (besides just slowing down the game).

Game 124: Take Me Home Tonight

So far this weekend, the Yankees and Red Sox have combined for 46 runs, 62 hits and approximately two and a half innings of compelling baseball. There have been exactly zero lead changes in the previous two games. On Friday, the Yanks were up 6-1 in the second inning and yesterday the Sox got ahead 7-0 in the 2nd and slowly pulled away from there. Looking at the 1-1 series record and a difference of 4 runs scored between the two teams, you'd think that there would have been more tense moments and big hits. But the vast majority of runs scored have seemed to be meaningless tack-ons or feeble attempts to chip away at insurmountable leads.

They don't have to be pitcher's duels, but the most watchable and gripping baseball games are see-saw battles where the momentum can shift with each pitch. The last two games were slopfests populated by mop-up men and bench scrubs in for garbage time, only enjoyable to one fan base at a time.Tonight looked like the best pitching match up coming into the weekend and now is the only chance to salvage an interesting game out of the trainwreck of a series.

CC Sabathia has won his last four starts, and has been especially sharp over his last 3. Starting with his last start against the Red Sox, he's gone 23 2/3 IP, given up 3 runs (1.34 ERA) 10 hits, 5 walks, and struck out 26. He's rounding into is legendary late season form and has been a treat to watch.

Josh Beckett was on a similar 3 game stretch (21 IP, 2ER) until it was rudely interrupted by the Blue Jays last Tuesday. Beckett gave up 7 runs in 5.1 IP but got off with a no-decision as the Sox scored 3 in the top of the 8th and won 10-9. He and Sabathia are tied for the AL lead with 14 wins but Beckett has fewer losses and a ERA two-tenths of a run lower.

Tonight's game will be the difference between the Yankees leading the division by 7.5 or 5.5 games with 38 left to play. Only 3 head to head meetings remain on the schedule after tonight and although the Yanks figure to make the playoffs with relative ease, it would be nice to win the division and more importantly get homefield advantage throughout the postseason.

What better way could there be for the Yanks to close down their longest road trip of the season than by effectively snuffing out the Sox' hopes at winning the division in an exciting, back and forth type of game? Take 'er home boys. It would be so money.

I can feel you breathing,
I can feel your heartbeat faster (faster)...

Take me home tonight,
I don't want to let you go to see the light,
Take me home tonight.

Joba Attending The Ian Kennedy School Of Media Relations

Yes, I just made fun of Ken Davidoff's column, but if you can get past the "OMG" in the first sentence, he's making a good overarching point. Here's what Joba said after his performance last night (emphasis mine):

"It's a win at the end of the day," Chamberlain told reporters. "I didn't throw well at all, but at the end of the day, 10 to 8, the Yankees win. There's really not much to be mad about.

>8

"I did a good job today [of attacking hitters], I felt like," he said. "They're great hitters. I threw good pitches and they put good swings on it. They've been doing it all year. They're going to continue to do it.

(Until Alfredo Aceves comes into the game, of course...)


Yes, a win is always the bottom line, but there's "not much" to be mad about? How about your shitty performance coming the day after a 12 inning game which had obviously taxed the bullpen? What about being staked to a 4-0 lead and pissing it away? Perhaps the fact that you needed 86 pitches to get 11 outs? No one else on the Yankees has anything to be mad about because they put together a heroic effort to save your ass after you were already in the showers. But you? You should be a little ticked off.


Now here's what Ian Kennedy said last August 8th after getting blasted by the Angels two days before he was optioned back to AAA:

"I felt like I made some good pitches," he said. "I'm not too upset about it. What was it, a bunch of singles and three doubles? I'm just not real upset about it. I'm just going to move on and I've already done that."

As fans, we are disappointed when a starting pitcher has a poor outing, so the natural inclination would be to want the players to be unhappy with themselves as well. We want them to take responsibility for their mistakes or at least acknowledge that they messed up. There's no sign of any of that in either of these snippets.

Mariano Rivera is constantly lauded for his "short memory" and how he doesn't let one bad performance negatively impact his next one. The difference is that Rivera faces the media after a blown save or a loss and owns up to his poorer efforts.

Is it Joba's attitude that's keeping him from turning in quality starts? Is it like a 12-Step Program where you first have to admit that you have a problem before you can address it? I don't know, but his quotes certainly aren't good signs.

I still don't think he's boring to watch. But frustrating? You better believe it.

No, Watching Al Leiter Pitch Was Boring

PeteAbe this morning on Joba Chamberlain:

Frankly, Joba has become boring. The Yankees are 10-5 in the games he starts but he has only six decisions. His ERA is 3.89, which is just OK. He has allowed 79 hits in 81 innings, pretty good. He has 73 strikeouts, not bad. The 40 walks are too much.

That's right, the Yankees most exciting pitching prospect in over a decade is boring because he only strikes out 8.1 guys per 9 innings, good for second best on team and eighth in the American League. Meh, not bad...

You know who's ERA is "just OK"? Andy Pettitte's at 4.38 and 100 ERA+. Does he put you to sleep too, Pete? At 3.89, Joba's is the second lowest on the team, behind only C.C. Sabathia and good for 19th among starter's in the AL. That is good enough to be the second best starter on any team in the AL besides Tampa Bay, Detriot, Seattle or Toronto and those teams either have great defenses or play in pitcher's parks.

He gives up fewer than a hit per inning, and only 22 other AL starters can say they do any better. His walk rate is the third highest in the league, but you know who is in 2nd place? A.J. Burnett. Is he boring too?

Joba might be inefficent and struggle to make it through the sixth inning more than any of us would like. He might throw too many breaking balls in counts where hitters don't even flinch at them. He certainly walks too many guys.

But for fuck's sake, he's not boring. If I'm going up to the Stadium to catch a game, I'd rather see Joba take the mound than anyone else except for maybe CC Sabathia. I accept his flaws because, he's, you know, 23 years old and young pitchers tend to have those problems. Like Brandon Morrow last night, and Rick Porcello earlier this year, and Hughes & Kennedy last season and the next young stud the Yanks try to work into the rotation whenever that happens.

Sorry he's not a great postgame quote, and his starts on average take a little bit longer, but you're not going to get a lot of sympathy from the people who read your blog, because most of them have 9-5 desk jobs that would make a start by Joba Chamerblain look like the last 10 minutes of The Departed by comparison.