ALDS Game 2: Positively 4th Street

Good afternoon Fackers.

We're breaking nearly two months of radio silence to come back today. Before we get into it, Jay and I would like to thank all of you who have still been checking back and leaving comments over the past couple months. We're thankful that you're still checking in. We're both still alive and well, but unfortunately neither of us are in a position to keep Fack Youk updated with even semi-regular content. But for today at least, it'll be like old times as we're bringing you one of our signature game previews.

Tonight's pitching match-up is a rematch of Game Three of last year's ALDS: Andy Pettitte against Carl Pavano. The two hurlers are a contrast in reputations. Pettitte is widely considered both a gamer and big game pitcher, a player who learned early in his career the difference between pitching injured and pitching hurt, and who's known to battle through and find a way even when he doesn't have his best stuff. Pettitte has been the winning pitcher in six series clinching games, including all three series enders in the 2009 post-season. Pavano on the other hand, is thought to have a glass jaw, easily injured and quick to hop on the DL at the slightest ache or pain. His four years with the Yankees were filled with a litany of injuries, but just 26 starts (not counting 14 rehab starts), and he has not recorded a win in any of his three career post-season starts.

Yet, this year it was Pettitte who missed two months of the season with a groin injury, while Pavano made 32 starts, finished sixth in the AL in innings pitched, and topped 199 IP for the second straight post-Bronx season. He led the AL in both complete games and shutouts, was second in BB per 9, and seventh in wins. It was the type of high-quality season Pettitte seemed on pace for prior to a pulled groin knocking him out his July 18th start. Instead, Pettitte sat on the shelf for nearly two months, made two Pavano-like rehab starts for AA Trenton, and was knocked around in three September starts back with the big club.

There's also some question as to whether either pitcher is his team's ideal started for Game Two. Many Twins pundits preferred to see Pavano, with his nine career post-season games, get the Game One nod over the inexperienced and often excitable Francisco Liriano. Meanwhile many Yankee observers wanted to see Phil Hughes, who has been markedly better on the road than at home this year, start in homer-suppressing Target Field rather than homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. But in the end, Liriano's superiority earned him the Game One nod, while Minnesota's vulnerability to left-handed pitching and Pettitte's big game experience earned him starts in Game Two and a decisive potential Game Five.

If The Yankee Years is to be believed, Joe Torre and several Yankee players had no problems holding Pavano's feet to the fire over his injury history. The Yankee fanbase has no shortage of blood-lust for Pavano, but in the two years since he's left New York, they've yet to be satisfied. The Yankees did not face him this season and managed just four runs and twelve baserunners over 13.1 innings regular season innings last year. Pavano held them to just five hits and two runs over seven innings in last year's ALDS Game Three. While he was the losing pitcher, he certainly wasn't knocked around in that start as solo home runs by Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada were just enough to hand Pettitte and the Yankees a 2-1 victory and a three game sweep.

Revenge aside, today's twilight tilt is big game for both pitchers. Pavano is looking to snap the Twins' ten game post-season losing streak and avoid falling in an 0-2 hole as the series shifts to New York. Pettitte is looking to shake off the rust that plagued him in his three September starts, reward the club's faith in him, and give the Yankees a commanding 2-0 lead to take some pressure off Hughes when he makes his first post-season start Saturday.

Will today be the day Yankee fans finally get to see their team slap Pavano around the yard? The numbers don't favor it. Target Field has suppressed power all year, yielding the fourth fewest home runs of any park. Further, Pavano doesn't put the ball in the air very often, his 51.2% groundball rate ranking fifteenth in the Majors thanks to both his sinker and changeup. He doesn't walk many either, just 1.5 per nine, so if the Yankees are going to put up any crooked numbers they'll likely have to come via a string of hits. Game Three of last year's ALDS showed that a little could go a long way when it comes to getting to Pavano, so perhaps the Yanks can beat him without bludgeoning him. At this point in the year, Yankee fans will take a win however they can get it, but I have a feeling that the vitriol towards Pavano isn't going anywhere regardless of today's result.

You got a lotta nerve
To say you are my friend
When I was down
You just stood there grinning

You got a lotta nerve
To say you got a helping hand to lend
You just want to be on
The side that’s winning

You say I let you down
You know it’s not like that
If you’re so hurt
Why then don’t you show it

You say you lost your faith
But that’s not where it’s at
You had no faith to lose
And you know it

I know the reason
That you talk behind my back
I used to be among the crowd
You’re in with

Do you take me for such a fool
To think I’d make contact
With the one who tries to hide
What he don’t know to begin with

You see me on the street
You always act surprised
You say, “How are you?” “Good luck”
But you don’t mean it

When you know as well as me
You’d rather see me paralyzed
Why don’t you just come out once
And scream it

No, I do not feel that good
When I see the heartbreaks you embrace
If I was a master thief
Perhaps I’d rob them

And now I know you’re dissatisfied
With your position and your place
Don’t you understand
It’s not my problem

I wish that for just one time
You could stand inside my shoes
And just for that one moment
I could be you

Yes, I wish that for just one time
You could stand inside my shoes
You’d know what a drag it is
To see you

[Song Notes: One of my favorite Dylan tunes, his bitterness seethes through the lyrics of this one. Forty-five years after the song's initial release, no one is quite sure what had the man who was born and raised in Minnesota so fired up. Perhaps the most popular theory is that "Positively 4th Street" is Dylan firing back at his Greenwich Village neighbors, specifically the folkies who lambasted his going electric at 1965 Newport Folk Fest (which, incidentally, we touched upon in one of our playoff previews last year). Another theory posits that the song references Dylan's time as a student at the University of Minnesota, where Minneapolis' 4th Street S.E. is the main road through the part of campus where Dylan lived.

Whatever Dylan's motivation, I've spent the past two seasons waiting for a Pavano start against the Yankees so I could use this song for the preview. The lyrics read like an airing of grievances between the fans and Pavano, or alternatively, Pavano lashing out at those who questioned the validity of his injuries.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
With a righty on the mound tonight, the hot-hitting Curtis Granderson slides up to the two spot. Nick Swisher drops down to the middle of the order, replacing Marcus Thames in the six hole, while Lance Berkman takes Thames' spot as the DH and will bat eighth.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada C
Lance Berkman DH
Brett Gardner LF

Twins:
No changes for the Twinkies

Denard Span, CF
Orlando Hudson, 2B
Joe Mauer, C
Delmon Young, LF
Jim Thome, DH
Michael Cuddyer, 1B
Jason Kubel, RF
Danny Valencia, 3B
J.J. Hardy, SS

I Guess That Scout Was Right...

[Photo]

From the Post a while back (h/t Sports Hernia):

Another talent evaluator believes Chamberlain’s persona changed for the worse when he was converted from reliever to starter and it still affects his mechanics.

“He is a grunt-and-fart guy, he’s Joba,” the scout said. “As soon as he tries to pitch, he moves around and loses his delivery.”

Seems like a pretty apt description of his demeanor in that picture right there, doesn't it?

In related news, can someone please try to locate the bird that shit on Joba's hat?

Seriously, all toilet humor aside, what was on that thing? That's not where sweat stains go. It looked okay against the Red Sox, a little bit worse and in his start against the Royals, and a little more noticeable in Tampa Bay.

Joba, that thing isn't bringing you any luck. If George Steinbrenner knew who you were, you'd be on his shitlist, big time. These are the playoffs, kid, trade it in for a freshie.

One Reason Not To Hate Brett Favre

When the Twins' ninth inning comeback fell short in the nitecap of yesterday's doubleheader againt Detroit, the Tigers ran their AL Central Lead back to two games. Their magic number is now four. Both the Twins and Tigers have 5 games left, two of them head-to-head. If the Tigers sweep the two they clinch; if the Twins do, they're dead even with three games to go.

Of course, all of this matters to the Yankees as they won't know who their ALDS opponent is until the AL Central is settled. While much of the talk around the Yankees these days is of the "who would you rather face?" variety, my preference isn't so much who they face but rather how long it takes to determine that. If given my druthers, this race would go down to the season's final day, not just for intrigue purposes, but also to force both clubs to continue to play their regulars and trot out their top starters.

Because of the doubleheader yesterday, both clubs have a dilemma for Saturday: bring back one of yesterday's starters on short rest, or send an inferior, but rested, pitcher to the mound with the season hanging in the balance. For the Tigers, the fact that 20 year old Rick Porcello was one of yesterday's pitchers makes the decision all the more complicated. Porcello has already thrown 165 innings this year - 40 more than his previous high - and bringing him in on short rest would increase his risk of future injury. Instead, the Tigers likely would elect to throw ace Justin Verlander on short rest Saturday, even though he's thrown 120+ pitches in each of his last three starts, including a season high 129 last night. For the Twins, "ace" Nick Blackburn would likely come back on short rest Saturday, and it looks like he'd draw Zack Greinke.

If the Yankees pick ALDS schedule "A" as expected, Game 1 would be next Wednesday, meaning that if the Saturday starter of the AL Central champ pitches that game, it would also be on short rest.

Here's where things can get really interesting. Should the Tigers and Twins finish the regular season tied, an additional play in game would be held to determine the division champion. The Twins lead the season series against the Tigers 10-6, so regardless of the outcome of the next two games, the Twins would host any potential play in game.

However, root-of-all-evil Brett Favre and his Minnesota Vikings are scheduled to play his former team, the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football next week. The Vikings' Metrodome lease gives them priority over all non-World Series games and the NFL has already announced the game will not be moved. There's no way ESPN, who is actively trying to set a Favre-based Guiness World Record to promote the game, would pass up on the ratings bonanza. As such, the AL Central championship game wouldn't be held until Tuesday, meaning that whoever pitches that game will have one fewer day of rest heading into the ALDS. So in a way, thank you Brett you waffling, self-centered attention whore.

All else being equal, I think I'd prefer to face the Twins in the ALDS. They appear to have a much weaker squad, particularly in the starting rotation, are missing a key offensive weapon in Justin Morneau, are 0-7 against the Yankees this year, and have been ALDS fodder for the Yanks in '03 and '04. However, I'd much rather have the Central go undecided until next Tuesday and play the Tigers than have the Twins come back and clinch it Saturday. These will certainly be an interesting few days.

I'll Show YOU Overmanaging!

During the 7th inning last night, after Chad Gaudin had been pulled and the Yankees' lead contracted to one run, Joe Girardi and Joe Maddon engaged in a managerial pissing contest of epic proportions. I detailed it in last night's recap, but as usual, left the editorializing for another post.

Both Matt and I have been critical of Joe Girardi's bullpen tinkering for a variety of reasons, but not because they haven't been successful. He's been pulling the strings and things have worked out well for him this year. That's terrific and all, but manager can deploy too many resources at once. It's called overmanaging, and we've discussed this before.

Let's roll the tape:

Once Girardi called on Marte with men on first and second and no one out, Maddon pinch hit for journeyman first baseman Chris Richard with righty Gabe Kapler. Fair enough. It would only have been Richards' fourth plate appearance of the year and Kapler is an upgrade at the plate. Those two moves essentially made themselves.

Due up next for the Rays were catcher Greg Zaun and lefty outfielder Gabe Gross, with the obvious pinch hitting candidates being two switch hitters, catcher Dioner Navarro and outfielder Willy Aybar.

Joe Girardi knew this, and had surely noticed that Marte had given just one baserunner (via a walk) in his 4 1/3 IP since being recalled from the DL. On three recent occasions Marte has pitched a scoreless inning or more, so despite the fact that Girardi said he thought of him as a LOOGY upon recall, he has undeniably been more than that. But rather than test Marte in a game that had the atmosphere and set up but not the import of a postseason one, he brought in Brian Bruney to face one of two guys who were just going to spin around and bat left handed against him anyway.

Even more questionable, Joe Maddon was the fact that called on Dioner Navarro who has a 53 OPS+ in 363 plate appearances this year, to hit for Zaun who was at 95 in 235. Navarro was slugging .266 against righties this year. Bruney got Navarro out, but was it really worth burning Damaso Marte after just one out to get Bruney face a guy who has been far, far, FAR below replacement level as a hitter this year?

Due up next was Gabe Gross, who about as strict of a platoon player as you will see in the majors today with about 9 times as many plate appearances against RHP than LHP. Girardi saw the opportunity to force Maddon's hand, and he did. Phil Coke came on, and Maddon went with Willy Aybar, who spun around to bat from his slightly weaker side, the right. Coke walked Aybar to load the bases but then got lefty Akanori Iwamura to ground out to end the inning.

All is well that ends well, right? Well, not really.

First of all, with two switch-hitting players on the bench, does it really make sense for Girardi to match up with them? Neither Navarro nor Aybar have significant platoon splits and neither are great hitters to begin with. If Girardi had just left Marte in, Maddon would have had to make the same moves.

Secondly, by burning through three pitchers who are all capable of throwing a scoreless inning or more each, Girardi fired three bullets and got only 3 outs. The security blanket of Hughes and Rivera were there, but as we saw last night, it's not fool proof. Thanks to Nick Swisher, the Yanks didn't have to go to extra innings, but if they did, their 5 of their best available relief pitchers would have already been used, as Jason pointed out in the comments, leaving a rather unappealing slew of possibilities for the later innings, when the game theoretically becomes increasingly important.

One of the reasons that this excessive matching up doesn't make that much sense to me is that it happens most often in close, low scoring games, a.k.a. the ones that are most likely to go into extra innings. Yes this was a September game with the safety net of expanded rosters, but every guy Girardi used projects to be on the 25 man for the playoffs, meaning that he wasn't treating it like one.

Ripping through a total of four pitchers and three pinch hitters in one inning is a luxury only afforded to managers one month out of the season and they are more than willing to use that option to prove to everyone how smart they are. Not only does it create even more commercial breaks and annoy the shit out of me personally, it's not really great strategy, even for games in September.

If someone could prove to me that bringing in three pitchers to face one batter each is somehow better than leaving in one pitcher (who is better than the other two) I would be open to that idea. However, given the fact that excessive pitching changes waste capable relievers after only a fraction the service they are capable of performing, leaving the bullpen exposed if the game goes into extras, I question it every time it happens.

Last night's game had a playoff feel to it and if that's what Girardi thinks is going to be proper strategy when the rosters contract and the games start to really matter, color me a little concerned. The fact that this hasn't backfired on Girardi yet is scary in that it very well might in October.

Falcons v. Cardinals Preview

Very comprehensive article about Matty Ice by Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson on the young career of the future perennial All-Pro.

Expect the AP Offensive Rookie of the year to have about 3 TDs and 250 yards in his playoff debut versus the Arizona Cardinals (who have given up 36 Passing TDs this year). However, the key to the game will be the Falcons ground attack. When Ryan has fewer than 30 passing attempts, the Falcons are 11-0. Another factor will be stopping the talented receiving duo of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, which can be accomplished by John Abraham getting pressure on Warner early and often.

Lucky draw for the Falcons considering that Arizona is last in the league in rushing and Atlanta's weakness is its Run D.

Pick:

Atlanta: 31
Arizona: 24

What If...

Let's just start by saying, this isn't going to happen. I fully realize that. But Plaxico Burress' suspension is up, and he could technically starting working out with the team again. I also believe it is at the Giant's discretion to take him off the Non-Football Injury List and he could play at some point this post season.

The organization would sacrifice a lot of credibility and take major heat for it in the media and Rodger Goodell may even step in with a suspension of his own, which is why it won't happen, but as a fan would you like to see Plax on the field for the playoffs?

I would. The guy made a mistake, a very stupid mistake for which he is going to pay the consequences for at some point. It was a victimless (self-victimizing?) incident, although it certainly could have gone another way. Just this year, other players have taken the field while their legal charges were pending including Matt Jones of the Jaguars (cocaine) and the even the five guys who were involved in the Star-Caps scandal.

Would the enhanced media presence and tough questions swarming around Burress outweigh his ability to stretch the field and take a defender out of the box? If he's even 85 or 90% healthy, I think the on-field advantage wins out.

Fewest Turnovers EVARRR!11!!!11

Via Ralph Vacciano's fantastic Daily News Giants blog, Blue Screen (pretty far down the post):

By not turning the ball over yesterday, the Giants ended the season with just 13 turnovers (10 interceptions, three lost fumbles). That’s the lowest number ever for an NFL team in a 16-game season, eclipsing the mark of 14 set by the 1990 Giants. Interestingly, a few hours later, the Miami Dolphins tied the record. They entered Week 17 with just 12 turnovers, but turned the ball over once against the Jets yesterday, giving them 13, too.

Really? I've only heard this mentioned in conjunction with the Dolphins. The Giants powerful running, strong pass rush and protection of the ball are all attributes that are going to aid them in their title defense, especially with the road to the Super Bowl going through the windy Meadowlands. (And are a big reason that at least one of these coaching vacancies that Joe mentioned this morning is probably going to rob the Giants of a coordinator)

Week 17: Playoff Implication Games Picks

This week has dragged with no football on Thursday/Saturday. Week 17 of the NFL is finally here. This is by far the most meaningful Week 17 in recent history with 6 playoff spots up for grabs.

Here are my straight-up picks for games with PLAYOFFS implications.

1PM Games

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees breaks Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season and makes his claim for NFL MVP as Nawlins wins 34-31.

St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons: Matty Ice and Turner the Burner tear up St. Louis to clinch the NFC South and a first round bye. Falcons 35-14.

New England at Buffalo Bills: The Patriots clinch the AFC East title with a New England win and Miami loss or tie OR New England tie and Miami loss. The Patriots clinch a wild-card spot with a New England win and Baltimore loss or tie OR New England tie and Baltimore loss. As I write this, they are expecting 60 MPH winds with goal posts knocked down. This means that the game will be won in the trenches. Can the Patriots win in the trenches? Buffalo's run D ranks #19 in the NFL and has given up 17 TDs. The Pats' run D is ranked # 13 in the NFL with only 8 TDs given up. Give me a Patriots win in the Wind Bowl. NE 16-6.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings: Much to the chagrin of Bears fans, Minnesota wins by virtue of the vaGiants resting their players. Minny Sota wins the NFC North. Minnesota 28-14.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: Coming off their huge win at the Texas Stadium finale, Baltimore wins handily as Joe "Skinny" Flacco joins my boy Matty Ice as a rookie in the Playoffs. Sorry Jets and Dolphins fans--You're out. Baltimore 21-7.

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans: Bears win this ultimately meaningless game (due to the Vikings winning). Chicago 21-17

Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Bucs: Tampa Bay wins handily, keeping their playoff hopes alive until the conclusion of Dallas/bEagles game. Tampa 24-7.

4PM Games

Miami Doplhins at New York Jets: By virtue of the NE and Baltimore wins, this game is meaningless. If it does become meaningful, Dolphins win as Pennington's small arm outduels the Gunslinger and #1 NFL Girly Man Brett Favre into retirement. Dolphins 24-21

Dallas Cowboys at Philidelphia Eagles: #2 NFL Girly Man always plays well against Philly and today will be no exception. By virtue of the Tampa Bay and Minnesota games, Philly can't get into The Tournament. However, they play tough in Andy Reid's (and maybe McNabb's) last game ever in Philly. Dallas wins 31-28.

8PM Game

Enver at San Diego: The Ed Hockuli Bowl. Karma proves a bitch for the Broncos as LT and Rivers tear up the 27th ranked Enver defense (there is no D in Denver). San Diego 34-24

SUMMARY

Atlanta--NFC South and First Round Bye, New England--AFC East, Baltimore--AFC Wildcard, Minnesota--NFC North, Dallas--NFC Wildcard, San Diego--AFC West

Enjoy!

GO COWBOYS! GO FALCONS!

EDIT: 5:53 PM: I am now officially a Falcons fan!