The Twins & Tigers Tied, Time To Tango

After catching the better part of the Twins and Royals game yesterday, my time watching baseball last night was evenly divided between the Yankees and the Tigers/White Sox game on the MLB Network. I guess I might be doing some advanced amateur scouting in advance, but I'm really just enjoying the drama of this AL Central race which has, against all odds, come down to the wire. No team has ever failed to make the playoffs after holding a three game lead with four to play. If they aren't careful, the Tigers might be the first.

Clearly in desperation mode, Jim Leyland pulled his starter after surrendering only 2 runs in 1.1 IP last night, but no amount of damage control could make up for the fact that his offense only scored one run off of Freddy Garcia in 7 innings and nothing more off of the bullpen after that. The Tigers looked to be set up, trailing by 3 with men on first and second with no one out in the 8th inning with a run already in, but Magglio Ordonez lined out to short and Miguel Cabrera bounced into a double play to end the inning.

Dead even heading into the last day of the season, the Tigers start at 1:05 while the Twins go an hour later. Carl Pavano starts on three days rest for the Twinkies, which he specifically requested after getting tagged for 7 runs against the Tigers his last time out. Pavano has only started on such short rest of rest once in his career, way back in 2004 for the Marlins against the Expos, the last game he started before signing with the Yankees. I have no idea why this happened because the Marlins were nowhere near the Wild Card race, but he was solid, throwing 7 innings of one run ball. This over-extension in a meaningless outing didn't have any ill effects on him going forward because he was nothing short of a horse for the Yanke... HEY, WAIT A SECOND!

Maybe it's because my judgement on this subject is clouded with bitterness and hatred, but I can't see this ending in any other fashion than a visit to the mound by the Twins trainer and a showering of boos.

Upshot: If the Twins and Tigers don't end the season tied (which would be awesome for the Yankees for reasons previously discussed), it's almost a given that we can blame Carl Pavano. If he throws a gem and the Tigers lose, "Damn you Pavano, you worthless hack! Where was this when you were on the Yankees!". If the gets shelled and the Tigers win, "What the FUCK Pavano? Can't you ever deliver when there is something on the line, you human fucking Ponzi Scheme! You just haaaad to take the ball on three days rest, didn't you?"

Amazingly, if the Twins, Tigers and Yankees lose, the Rays will have the same number of wins (85) that the two teams from the Central do (in an infinitely tougher division), except they will have missed the playoffs by 9 or 10 games.

Whichever way it shakes out, this should make for some furious sports action starting at 1:00, with the Giants and Yankees both in action along with the Twins with the Tigers close on their heels. Gotta love Sundays in the early Fall. Buckle your seatbelts, crack a beer, fire up your fantasy football stat tracker and get ready to hate Carl Pavano.

Go Yanks, G-Men and Twins/Tigers -OR- Royals/White Sox! Woohoo!!!

One Reason Not To Hate Brett Favre

When the Twins' ninth inning comeback fell short in the nitecap of yesterday's doubleheader againt Detroit, the Tigers ran their AL Central Lead back to two games. Their magic number is now four. Both the Twins and Tigers have 5 games left, two of them head-to-head. If the Tigers sweep the two they clinch; if the Twins do, they're dead even with three games to go.

Of course, all of this matters to the Yankees as they won't know who their ALDS opponent is until the AL Central is settled. While much of the talk around the Yankees these days is of the "who would you rather face?" variety, my preference isn't so much who they face but rather how long it takes to determine that. If given my druthers, this race would go down to the season's final day, not just for intrigue purposes, but also to force both clubs to continue to play their regulars and trot out their top starters.

Because of the doubleheader yesterday, both clubs have a dilemma for Saturday: bring back one of yesterday's starters on short rest, or send an inferior, but rested, pitcher to the mound with the season hanging in the balance. For the Tigers, the fact that 20 year old Rick Porcello was one of yesterday's pitchers makes the decision all the more complicated. Porcello has already thrown 165 innings this year - 40 more than his previous high - and bringing him in on short rest would increase his risk of future injury. Instead, the Tigers likely would elect to throw ace Justin Verlander on short rest Saturday, even though he's thrown 120+ pitches in each of his last three starts, including a season high 129 last night. For the Twins, "ace" Nick Blackburn would likely come back on short rest Saturday, and it looks like he'd draw Zack Greinke.

If the Yankees pick ALDS schedule "A" as expected, Game 1 would be next Wednesday, meaning that if the Saturday starter of the AL Central champ pitches that game, it would also be on short rest.

Here's where things can get really interesting. Should the Tigers and Twins finish the regular season tied, an additional play in game would be held to determine the division champion. The Twins lead the season series against the Tigers 10-6, so regardless of the outcome of the next two games, the Twins would host any potential play in game.

However, root-of-all-evil Brett Favre and his Minnesota Vikings are scheduled to play his former team, the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football next week. The Vikings' Metrodome lease gives them priority over all non-World Series games and the NFL has already announced the game will not be moved. There's no way ESPN, who is actively trying to set a Favre-based Guiness World Record to promote the game, would pass up on the ratings bonanza. As such, the AL Central championship game wouldn't be held until Tuesday, meaning that whoever pitches that game will have one fewer day of rest heading into the ALDS. So in a way, thank you Brett you waffling, self-centered attention whore.

All else being equal, I think I'd prefer to face the Twins in the ALDS. They appear to have a much weaker squad, particularly in the starting rotation, are missing a key offensive weapon in Justin Morneau, are 0-7 against the Yankees this year, and have been ALDS fodder for the Yanks in '03 and '04. However, I'd much rather have the Central go undecided until next Tuesday and play the Tigers than have the Twins come back and clinch it Saturday. These will certainly be an interesting few days.