Fun With Shutdowns and Meltdowns

Based on a conversation which originated at Beyond the Boxscore and continued over at The Book blog, FanGraphs created two new stats for relief pitchers based on WPA. Fortunately there are no intimidating acronyms. The positive one is "Shutdowns (SD)" and the negative one is "Meltdowns (MD)". I think everyone can understand that.

The Yankees are tied for the fewest meltdowns in the MLB with 8 but they've also had the second fewest appearances by relievers this year primarily due to the length their starting pitchers have provided for them. Yankee starters are averaging 6 1/3 IP per start and on nights when Javy Vazquez isn't pitching that number jumps over 6 2/3.

Looking at it another way, the Yankees' ratio of meltdowns to shutdowns is better than 1:2, which is good for 7th best in the league. Without getting my hands too dirty, that seems like a pretty good way to rank the performance of team's bullpens so far this season. When sorted by meltdowns/shutdowns, the teams fall out into three distinct tiers.

Tier 1: These teams all have a better than 2:1 shutdown to meltdown ratio. Most of them have an ERA better than league average with the exception of the Tigers (13th), Nationals (18th) and Pirates (dead last).

(The columns next to ERA and MD/SD are the

team's league-wide ranks in those categories)

What's apparently right away is that there is a decent general correlation to ERA but some extreme outliers (likely due to the fact that it's still early in the season).

The Tigers have a bullpen ERA that is slightly higher than league average but still have the best MD/SD in the MLB. Detroit has converted 80% of their saves (tied for 4th best in the league) which is a good indication that they have been getting the job done when it matters but giving up a lot of runs in low leverage situations. The Nationals are in the same boat with a bad ERA (19th), high SV% (11/13) and a solid MD/SD (5th). The Pirates are an interesting case, as their ERA is clearly inflated by having eight losses by seven runs or more, including two games they lost to the Brewers by a combined 33 runs. Those big losses have essentially no effect on WPA after a certain point but are given equal weight in ERA.

Tier 2: All of these teams have between a 1:2 and 3:4 MD/SD ratio.

The Reds have the fourth most relief appearances in the league so it makes sense that they have the most shutdowns with 33 and are in the top 5 for meltdowns with 18. They might have a good ratio but their ERA is indicative of the fact that their 'pen is over-taxed. Paging Aroldis Chapman. The Red Sox are in a similar situation with fewer shutdowns but a lower ERA. The Mariners are the only team in this cluster with an ERA in the top 1/3 of the league.

Tier 3: The final tier consists of teams who have more than 3 meltdowns for every four shutdowns. Four of them - the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals - have more MDs than SDs.

Incredibly, the Giants, who are leading the league in bullpen ERA, have only 10 shutdowns (last in the MLB) and are second to last in terms of their MD/SD ratio.

Clearly, over the course of the season, teams like the Giants and Tigers are going to see their ERA and MD/SD ranks converge on each other. The Giants will get some good performances from their relievers when it matters and the Tigers will see their guys give up some runs when it counts too.

Neither ERA nor MDs and SDs are perfect ways of measuring reliever's contributions but each brings their own unique perspective. And when combined with or contrasted against each other they have a way of teasing out information that we might not have known before. It should be interesting to keep on eye on these stats as the season goes forward and FanGraphs includes them on the player pages.

Let The (Spring Training) Games Begin

Good morning, Fackers. Today we take the next baby step along the path to actual, meaningful baseball. After two full weeks in camp for most pitchers and one week for the majority of the position players, the team is now ready to play some live baseball against a real opponent. Well, real might be stretching it considering that said opponent is the Pirates, but you know what I'm trying to get at here.

Of course, the action today is going to be significantly different than a regular season game. In addition to the fact that pitchers are scheduled to pitch in predetermined blocks of a few innings, they won't be throwing a their full array of pitches - most notably their breaking stuff. The lineups are bound to have a few players that aren't going to be on the roster come Opening Day, and that number will steadily increase as the game wears on. It's an just exhibition or scrimmage or dress rehearsal, but after a long winter with very little in the way of live baseball action, it's a welcome reprieve to see your guys on the field.

Last night, Joe from River Ave. Blues cautioned us not to pay attention to the stats from Spring Training but simultaneously reminded us to enjoy the games for what they are:

I encourage everyone to watch spring training baseball for the pure enjoyment of the game. I do not, however, encourage anyone to draw insights from what they see in these games. The pitchers and hitters are still working back into their grooves. A.J. Burnett, for example, will not throw his curveball in his first few spring starts. I’m sure the hitters will all be focusing on what they’ve worked on with Kevin Long and figuring out what works. How can we judge these players if they’re not playing the same way they will when the season starts?

Similarly, our buddy Craig isn't going to bother with his hilariously-titled morning round up, And That Happened until the regular season rolls around:

Yes, it's baseball, but it's a decidedly different beast than the game we know and love. Things happen in spring training like, say, a team benching all of its regulars at the last minute because it rained three hours earlier. Veterans don't make road trips very often and play golf while their teammates sweat. Pitchers go two or three innings max until at least the end of the month. What happens in those games may be interesting, but the games as a whole are not meaningful. They're certainly not the sort of thing that makes a guy want to dig down and analyze the heck out of a box score, ya know?

By the time Opening Day arrives, we are going to be sick of watching Spring Training games. We'll be able to hear the regular season knocking on the door and will be more than willing to leave the meaningless scrimmages and drills of Florida in the dust. However, today around 1:00 will be a great time to embrace the sights and sounds of the game without having to care too much about what happens on the field.

Note: Our friends over at Bronx Baseball Daily are hosting a live chat for the game, and it should be a good chance to yak it up with some like-minded folk. Stop on by.

Why Did Bobby Richardson Win The WS MVP in 1960?

Given the lack of newsworthy items yesterday, one of the hotter topics of conversation in the baseball blogosphere was whether or not Chase Utley should win the World Series MVP even if the Phillies lose. I linked to Dan Levy's post at the Sporting Blog last night but wanted to take a closer look at the idea today.

We're only 5 games into the Fall Classic and Utley has already smacked 5 home runs - 2 in each of the Phillies wins. He's hitting .333/.429/1.222 in front of Ryan Howard, whose OPS isn't much higher than Utley's OBP. There's little question that Utley's has had the best World Series so far. Cliff Lee singlehandedly won Game 1 but was mediocre in Game 5. A-Rod has had 6 huge, tide-turning RBIs but a meager batting line otherwise. Mariano Rivera's most important innings have yet to be pitched. Utley's showing comes with no asterisk.

As Levy points out, the only other player to win the World Series MVP from a losing team was also a second baseman - Bobby Richardson of the 1960 Yankees. In the first 11 years that the World Series MVP was awarded, Richardson was the only position player to win the award. It was an unlikely honor perfectly fit for one of the most improbable World Series ever played.

The Yankees outscored the Pirates 55-27 in that 7 game series. They out-hit them 91-60, out-homered them 10-4 and had a team ERA twice as low (3.54 to 7.11). But nonetheless, the Yanks lost on Bill Mazeroski's walkoff home run, still the only one in a Game 7 in World Series history.

Richardson's performance was pretty spectacular. He had a batting line of .367/.387/.667 which included a grand slam, 2 triples and 12 runs batted in. But he wasn't even the best offensive player on his own team. Mickey Mantle hit .400/.545/.800 with three homers and drove in 11 runs. By all accounts, Richardson was an excellent defensive second baseman, but Mantle was a legendary defender in center field and a much more recognizable figure at the time.

Richardson was in only his second year as the Yankees' primary 2B and Mantle had just made his 10th consecutive All-Star team. For regular season awards like Gold Gloves and MVPs, voters usually lean towards established stars over one year flukes (see: Zobrist, Ben), but that doesn't seem to be the case with World Series MVPs. In recent years, for example, writers have chose guys like David Eckstein (2006), Troy Glaus (2002) and Scott Brosius (1998); scrappy underdogs (slightly above average baseball players) who saved their best for the big stage.

The timing of the RBIs in the 1960 Series was a major contributing factor to the result of the voting. All but one of Richardson's 12 RBIs came in Yankees' victories. It's hard to stand out offensively when your team wins 3 games by an average of nearly 12 runs, but that's exactly what Richardson did when he drive in 6 runs in a 10-0 victory in Game 3. By comparison, Mantle blended in by knocking in five in the 16-3 domination in Game 2 and two on top of Richardson's 6 in Game 3. He added 2 more in Game 5, which the Yankees won 12-0 and two more in Game 7, which they ultimately lost.

But the reason that Richardson won the MVP over a more worthy teammate isn't the reason that it's still cited today. That's happened plenty of times (Eckstein in '06, Manny in '04, Livan Hernandez in '97, Darrell Porter in 1982, Bucky Dent '78 to name a few) It's because he won it on the losing team.

There is some precedent for giving the MVP to a player on the losing team of a postseason series. There were Mike Scott for the Astros in the '86 NLCS and Jeffrey Leonard for the Giants in '87 for example. It's happened once in the NBA Finals, once in the Super Bowl and five times in the Stanley Cup Finals. It just hasn't happened in the World Series since 1960.

It should have in 2002 when Barry Bonds had an OPS of 1.994, more than 1.100 higher than the winner, Troy Glaus. The fact that he was Barry Bonds certainly didn't help, but Glaus did drive in the tying and go-ahead runs on a double off of Rob Nen to force a Game 7.

But back to Richardson. Perhaps there is a simpler explanation as to why he is the only World Series MVP out of 53 to come from a losing team. The writers thought they were picking a guy from the winning team.

According to Mike Emeigh over at Baseball Think Factory (post #39), World Series MVP ballots had to be turned in before the beginning of the 8th inning of Game 7. Well, at the end of the 7th inning, the Yankees were leading 5-4. They had turned a 0-4 deficit into a 5-4 lead in the 5th & 6th innings and appeared to be in line for the victory.

But they didn't win. The Yanks expanded their lead to 7-4 in the top of the 8th, but gave up 5 runs to the Pirates in the bottom half. It might not have happened if a grounder that hit shortstop Tony Kubek squarely in the throat took a more predictable hop and ended up as a double play. However, the Pirates rallied to take the lead 9-7. The Yanks plated two in the 9th inning to barely stay alive, with Richardson scoring the 8th run.

It was their last breath, however, as the first batter Ralph Terry faced in the bottom of the 9th was Bill Mazeroski.

As another poster at BBTF (#43) argued, it doesn't really matter that the 1960 World Series MVP vote might (or might not) have been skewed by a procedural issue. The precedent for the writers select a an MVP from the losing team exists and it's unlikely that the people voting on this year's award know or care about that.

Does Chase Utley deserve to win the MVP at this point? Yes, in terms of value to his team, he probably does, although WPA thinks otherwise. But there are still games left to be played and there are a couple of Yankees who, if they factor directly into a victory, have a good chance to take it from Utley. But if push comes to shove, I'll give Utley the MVP in exchange for the Yankees' title. Deal?

Morning Round Up

Good morning Fackers. So the Red Sox won last night, keeping the Yankees magic number at five, meaning that the Yanks will need to sweep in order to clinch this weekend.

But the Yankees did get some good news late yesterday. Jerry Hairston Jr saw a hand specialist at New York-Presbyterian Hospital yesterday, and his MRI revealed nothing more serious than tendinits. He was given a second cortisone shot and is listed as day-to-day. Hairston certainly isn't out of the woods yet, but all things considered it's about the best news he could have received. With any luck he'll be good to go come the post-season, because as we explored yesterday and RAB echoed, his versatility would be difficult to replace.

Freddy Guzman would be a potential candidate to replace Hairston if his injury prevents him from being part of the post-season roster. Guzman was added to the 40 man and Major League rosters a week ago at the expense of Anthony Claggett. Claggett became the third young Yankee pitcher to be designated for assignment this season, and yesterday he became third to be claimed by the Pirates, joining Steven Jackson and Eric Hacker. I hope Claggett can get his career ERA under 30, but he may have a difficult time getting to PNC Park thanks to G20 Summit.

At the end of the 2006 season, the Yankees announced they were ending their 28 season affiliation with the Columbus Clippers to move their AAA affiliate to Pennsylvania so that it would be closer to New York. The affiliate is supposed to located in Dunder Mifflin country, but it's looking more and more like it's further west in PA.

As many have pointed out since yesterday's claim, seven men on the Pirates 40 man roster are former Yankee properties: the three aforementioned pitchers, as well as Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, Daniel McCutchen, and Jose Tabata - the entirety of the Pirates haul from last year's Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte deal. Also in the Pirates system are Eric Fryer and Casey Erickson, who were acquired from the Yankees system in June in exchange for Eric Hinske. That's enough former Yankee farmhands to field an entire team. As bad as the Bucs have been for the past 17 years they might as well be a minor league team anyway.

Moore, Manuel, And Making Poor Decisions

Good morning Fackers. I don't know about you, but I'm certainly glad this week is coming to a close. I mean, I'm glad when every week comes to a close, but this one in particular. The Yanks were out on the west coast, meaning late starts and screwed up sleep patterns. Yesterday was another barely bearable off day. And work has completely, totally, and utterly kicked my ass this week.

In completely unrelated news, this year has been a good one for bad baseball. Entering play yesterday, six teams had winning percentages under .425, the most since 2004 (7), and nine teams had winning percentages under .450, again the most since 2004 (11).

The Nationals, despite a fairly recent eight game winning streak, are playing baseball that has bordered on historically bad. Their winning percentage entering yesterday would be the worst since the 2005 Royals. They've also endured botching the firing of their manager, as well as the resignations of their General Manager and his top assistant as a result of an illegal scheme skimming Latin American signing bonuses.

The Pirates are 12 losses away from ensuring their 17th consecutive losing season. Currently in year 10 of a 5 year rebuilding program, they've traded every saleable arbitration eligible player on their roster with the exception of Zach Duke and Ryan Doumit.

But with all the bad baseball going, no two teams have hit the trifecta of poor on field play, incompetent front office management, and public relations disasters quite like the Royals and Mets.

We've already had a little fun at both their expense when they both pulled off poor trades within hours of each other last month. This week they decided to go head-to-head in the public relations arena.

On Tuesday, the Royals optioned Alex Gordon to AAA Omaha. The second overall pick in the 2005 draft, Gordon made his Major League debut after breaking camp with Royals to start the 2007. Earlier this season, Gordon required the same labrum repair surgery that A-Rod had during spring training. He suffered the injury against the Yankees on April 11th, played through April 15th, and underwent surgery on April 17th. He began a rehab assignment in early July, but rather than taking the full 30 days, the Royals activated him after just 13 games and 53 plate appearances. In the month after his activation until his demotion, Gordon hit just .227/.310/.333. Maybe he could have used the full rehab assignment after all.

Where the impropriety comes in is in that by optioning him down for at least 20 days, the Royals ensure that Gordon will end the season without three full years of Major League service time, pushing his free agency clock back a year. While this isn't all that different from what Tampa has done with Mrs. Tony Parker and David Price or what Baltimore has done with Matt Wieters, all in an effort to keep them from Super Two arbitration status, Gordon's case seems somewhat seedier in that it's happening after he's been established as a Major Leaguer rather than before he was ever brought up.

It may well be a smart move by Dayton Moore and the Royals. But, they were the ones who decided to break camp with Gordon in 2007 after he had just one year and 576 PA of AA ball. They started this clock when they did. While Gordon certainly has struggled this season, the Royals elected to activate him after only half of his allowable rehab time expired. They made these decisions; they have to deal with the criticism that comes with this latest one.

Meanwhile, over in Flushing, the circus continues. In the wake of David Wright's sickening beaning Saturday, the Atlanta Braves just happened to be coming into town. As you may recall, the Braves are the team to which the Mets traded Ryan Church last month. As you may further recall, Ryan Church had a couple nasty concussions last year that the Mets medical staff handled very, very poorly. You may also recall that Jerry Manuel facking hates Ryan Church. Hmmm. I wonder what possibly could have happened next?

When giving his pre-game press conference Sunday, less the 24 hours after Wright has hit, and so soon after Wright was discharged from the hospital that he likely hadn't yet cut the bracelet from his wrist, Manuel had this to say (h/t Neyer):

You have to be careful into stereotyping individuals. David is a different animal, so to speak. How he is made up is a little different than, say, Ryan Church, in my opinion. That's not to say that one is better than the other, but they're different. With Ryan, there was always something thrown from leftfield - 'We need to check that.' That made it somewhat difficult to evaluate that particular situation.

Translation from jive talk: David Wright's a tough guy; Ryan Church is a pussy.

Let's back up the train a second here Jerry. Just because you elicit memories of the "Doctor of Style" Slick, doesn't mean that you are a doctor of neurology. Church, of course, knows this, and took exception. What a mess the Mets are. Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and now Daid Wright - their four best offensive players - are on all the DL and all likely out for the year. Meanwhile, the men in high profile leadership roles: Manuel, Omar Minaya, and until recently Tony Bernazard, continue to heap insult on top of the injuries.

So I suppose I could have had a worse week. I mean, I got it better than Moore or Manuel. And I haven't been concussed as badly as Church or Wright. Plus we have Yanks-Sox to look forward to tonight. Either way, I'll still feel a helluva lot better when that five o'clock whistle blows.

Pirates Pitcher Gets Win For Nats Over Houston

Wait, what?

The Nats and 'Stros finished a game yesterday that had been suspended on May 5th due to rain. The winning pitcher was Joel Hanrahan, who now pitches for the Pirates. The winning run was scored by Nyjer Morgan, who played for the Pirates when the game began. Morgan was pinch running for Elijah Dukes, who is currently in AAA or prison. I'm not sure which.

Deadspin has all the zany details; here's the box score.

Weird things like this happen from time. On August 4, 1982, Joel Youngblood started in centerfield for the Mets, batting third against the Cubs. This was before lights were installed at Wrigley Field, so it was an afternoon game.

Youngblood went 1 for 2 with 2 RBI before getting lifted for Mookie Wilson in the fourth. Youngblood was removed because he'd been traded to the Expos for the ever popular player to be named later. Youngblood left Wrigley, hopped a plane to Philly, where the Expos were playing that night, and entered the game as a defensive replacement in the sixth inning. In his only at bat, he singled in the seventh, becoming the only Major Leauger ever to record a hit for two different teams in two different cities in the same day. To boot, both hits came off future Hall of Famers: barely literate drug-smuggling Canadian Ferguson Jenkins and the possibly anti-semitic and all-around crazy Steve Carlton.

You Fackers got any other stories?

Yanks Acquire Hinske

Back in the 1950s, the Yankees and the Kansas City A's traded with each other on a weekly basis it seemed. Half a century later, the Pittsburgh Pirates are the trading partner of choice.

Following last year's six player deal that brought Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the Bronx, this year saw the Bucs have Andy Phillips in spring training, claim Stephen Jackson off waivers, and trade for Eric Hacker.

Today came another deal between the two clubs. Multiple sources are reporting that the Bucs have sent Eric Hinske to the Yanks in exchange for minor leaguers Eric Fryer and Casey Erickson.

Hinske will provide depth for the Yankee bench. The 2002 AL Rookie of the Year can play the corner spots in both the infield and outfield. While not a major bat, Hinske can provide some pop off the bench when needed and may offer a more appetizing option at third base than Cody Ransom, which could lead to A-Rod receiving more frequent days off as planned. Hinske spent the last three seasons with the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, so he knows the AL East well.

Hinske's acquisition likely means that Ramiro Pena will play AAA ball for the first time in his career. Pena did well for himself, particularly considering that he hadn't played above AA before. I'm sure we haven't seen the last of him, and in the long run, he'll likely benefit from getting regular ABs at Scranton for now. Pena's demotion leaves Ransom as the backup SS, a position he has played extensively, if not spectacularly in both his minor and major league careers (career UZR/150 of -8.4).

Fryer was playing for High-A Tampa. He was acquired from Milwaukee this past offseason for Chase Wright. After a hot start, he's leveled off to .250/.333/.344. He's played predominantly in the OF, but can also catch.

Erickson was at Low-A Charleston and was 3-3 with 2.25 ERA in 3 starts and 18 relief apperances.

Is Harold Reynolds Gonna Have To Hug A Bitch?

It seems like some sort of karmic justice that a community college named after a marine mammal whose population was decimated by sea faring vessels, would defeat a professional team named after marauders who raped and pillaged aboard them.

From the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

SARASOTA, Fla. -- Virgil Vasquez gave up three runs in 4 2/3 innings, and Dave Davidson was charged with a blown save as a collection of the Pirates' top prospects lost to Manatee Community College, 6-4, at McKechnie Field in Bradenton.

I don't know what this says more about: The game of baseball in general or the Pirates as a franchise. Sure, the Pirates roster consisted of only Single and Double A players, but could you picture that headline with any other team's logo? My heart goes out to you, DJ Gallo.