Trembely's Time?

Rise and shine, Fackers. According to the Baltimore Sun, Dave Trembley is going to be fired before today's game. Or perhaps he was already canned when the team return from New York last night. He was supposedly close to getting axed about a week ago, but that rumor proved to be false. Even if it isn't today, the writing is certainly on the wall.

Directly and indirectly, the Yankees led to Trembley's termination. Their sweep of the O's is likely the last straw and their presence in the AL East - the Yanks were 36-15 against Baltimore in his tenure - made their quest for a respectable season much more difficult.

The O's are obviously having a dismal 2010. Thanks to a couple of blown saves, they got off to a 1-11 start and have only improved upon that marginally since. They are now 15-39, which puts them a whopping 21 games behind the Rays one-third of the way through the season. In theory, they are playing roughly at the pace you would expect a team comprised solely of replacement level players to perform. And their run differential only says that they should be two games better than they are.

You have to imagine - for a marginal team in a division as tough as the AL East - the players knew their season was over before it had even really started. The fans knew it too, because they set a record for the fewest number of people at Camden Yards when the team was just 1-5 and came very close to topping bottoming that twice against the Royals in May.

These guys are professionals, but when it's obvious that your season is completely fucked and the only time people show up to see if is when the Yankees or Red Sox are in town, it's gotta be tough. Tough to grind out at bats as a hitter when you are down by right runs like they were on Wednesday. It has to be demoralizing for a starting pitcher like Brian Matusz who pitched a hell of a game on Tuesday only to get tagged with the loss because of an unforced throwing error. The YES cameras panned to him for a reaction but he had already vanished down the dugout steps.

Of course, only so much of this is Trembley's fault. I don't know how big his family is, but there isn't much he can do to fill the stands. He didn't injure Brian Roberts, Koji Uehara, Felix Pie, Jim Johnson or Mike Gonzalez. He definitely didn't blow all of those saves in the beginning of the year. Perhaps he bears some responsibility for the fact that the Orioles don't appear to be playing to the level they are capable of - that he "lost" the team - but I don't know if there is a manager out there who could have kept this team from spiraling out of control after those tough losses and subsequent brutal start.

While Trembley's 187-282 record during his time with the team isn't impressive, the fact that he got the job in the first place certainly is. When Sam Perlazzo got fired 69 games into the 2007 season, Trembley was promoted from bullpen coach to interim manager. He never played the game professionally and instead comes from a more academic background (he has a masters in Education and did graduate work in Sports Psychology), but Andy MacPhail, who had recently taken over as the president of baseball operations, gave him a chance anyway. The team started off 20-14 under the new skipper, he kept his job until the end of the year and finally lost the "interim" part of his title over the winter.

Trembley more than paid his dues, managing for 20 years in the minor leagues before joining the Big League club, so that was one of the reasons that Andy McPhail thought it would be good idea to allow him to oversee a couple of rebuilding seasons. It didn't quite go as planned and in a year when the O's were supposed to take a big step forward and possibly flirt with .500, they took an even bigger one backwards and are on pace for one of the worst seasons in a very long time.

Perhaps third base coach Juan Samuel - who did play in the Majors for 16 seasons - or whoever else takes over the team when Trembley is ultimately whacked will have better results. But it will probably be because some of those five guys on the DL come back from injuries, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Miguel Tejada start hitting and Matusz and Brad Bergensen start pitching to their potential.

Given how his tenure with the O's went, it's tough to see Trembley landing another Major League managerial gig, but at least he can say he got a shot and made the most out of it. From a distance, he seems like a stand up baseball man and hopefully he lands on his feet somewhere.

New Poll: Yankee Fans Are Liars

When I first saw the Toyota text poll pop up during the second inning of yesterday's game, I predicted to a few of my buddies that 70% of people would answer "Yes", knowing that the actual proportion of people still in the stands after 20 innings would be nowhere near that. The actual results?

[Sample size note: For all we know, 8 people texted in and only one of them (12.5%) said "no" but given the size of YES's audience, we'll assume that it's north of 100, making it relatively stable for analysis]

Pretty astonishing, right? The results bear no relation to reality whatsoever. Just look at how many people were still at the Mets vs. Cardinals game on Saturday night in the 19th inning compared to how many were there in the first:

You can't see the whole stadium, but it's probably safe to assume that the upper deck was even more sparsely populated given that people tend to move down to better seats as others leave. Saying that a quarter of the fans were still there would be fairly generous. And that game took place on a Saturday night, so it wasn't like most people had to get up for work in the morning.

So why is the poll so egregiously wrong?

First off, the sample is biased because it depends on people to volunteer to pick up their phone and take part in it. It's called participation bias. A text poll is always going to suffer from this type of error (as do online surveys, to a lesser degree), but if you wanted to get a better answer and still use a survey method, randomly asking people in the stands (and not at home) would give you more accurate results.

Furthermore, the average age of text polls are always going to skew younger and young people are the the ones who are more likely to actually stay for the game. Your grandfather probably isn't going to pick up his Droid and dial 58772 and there's a good chance that's he's gone long before the second seventh inning stretch rolls around.

Also, it's more likely that someone would text in to say "yes" as opposed to "no" since affirmative and/or positive answers are better at coaxing people to take part. Saying that you would leave early from an exciting game isn't something people are keen on admitting to because they think it makes them look like less of a fan. Surveys attract people by allowing them a chance to offer their opinion, so when they are somewhat ashamed or embarrassed by it, they are less likely to go out of their way to give it.

Most importantly, though, the question deals with stated intent, something that surveys often can't measure effectively. In a vacuum, I'm sure that people would like to stay and see all 20 innings of a game. It sounds great in your mind ("What an epic game!", "I'd never leave in the middle of it") but in actuality, there are a ton of small inconveniences that you don't bother to take into consideration.

It becomes uncomfortable to sit in the same crappy plastic seats for over 7 hours, especially when they stopped serving beer in the middle of the 7th and most (or all) of the other concessions stands are probably shut down as well. Of course people are going to claim that they would stick it out when they are sitting on their cushy couch watching the third inning of a game on a lazy Sunday afternoon, but when they are at the park, stomach growling, legs falling asleep, and eyelids seemingly increasing in weight, it's easy to turn to the person next to you and say "Do you wanna get the hell out of here or what?". Staying for an entire marathon extra inning game is a classic example of something that's "easier said than done" and surveys can only measure the "said" part.

So perhaps the headline was a little misleading. It's not that people are exactly lying; most aren't willfully misrepresenting their positions. This is just an example of a time when a survey question has no correlation with reality. I don't know if it's a bad question, necessarily, because no one is basing any decisions on the outcome of it, but the results certainly don't reflect the truth in any way shape or form.

O's Fever: Catch It!

Last night, Camden Yards played host to the smallest crowd in it's history: 9,129.

Granted, the O's were playing their fourth home game, squarely in the slow period after the rush to get out to the first series has worn off but before summer has arrived and the kids are out of school. They were also off to a 1-5 start (now 1-6), it was a Monday night and the Rays in town, who have a good team but few displaced fans in other cities. Still, with a solid young core like Baltimore has, you'd think it a few more people* would have made it out.

While Camden Yards is still the face of the "New Ballpark Movement", any novelty has long worn off. It doesn't seem like it, but the park is now hosting it's 18th season and is actually due for some renovations over the next year or two. As Craig notes, there are now only 10 parks older than Camden.

It's quite jarring to see the place so empty, but when the Yanks come to town at the end of the month, surely there will be fewer of those seats unoccupied.

*Noted stoner and manfish Michael Phelps was in the crowd. No word on whether or not he tried to toke some herb out of a red pepper.

The Best Fans In The World?

That's what Mike Lupica is calling Yankees fans this morning:

There aren't fans better than this anywhere in the world. This isn't about whether or not you love the Yankees. This is about Yankee fans.

There are other baseball fans in other cities, of course, Mets fans in this one. There are fans who come out strong for teams who haven't won the way the Yankees won, who don't make the playoffs just about every year the way the Yankees have since Joe Torre first came to town 13 years ago and the winning came back to the Yankees and the Bronx.

But no fans have ever supported a baseball team, the most famous team in this world, the way Yankee fans support theirs.

We constantly hear this praise heaped upon us. Derek Jeter said it in his final speech at the Old Stadium. Michael Kay would like you to believe that Yankee fans are the only ones in baseball that cheer in anticipation of anything. I know I've heard John Sterling say that Yankee fans are the best in the world on the radio broadcast as well. But all of those guys have great reason to pander to fan base, and along with fans themselves trying to compare themselves to followers of other teams, that's all these declarations ever come down to.

It's pretty much impossible to compare fan bases, just as it would be to compare other groups which contain millions of people to each other. Are people from Vermont more laid back then people from New Hampshire? Are Baptists more religious than Evangelists? Are BMW drivers more alert than those who own an Audi? Are people who drink Bud Light cooler than those who drink Coors? (Trick question, they both suck!) The only way to deal with groups that big is to look at them with sweeping generalizations or compare them anecdotally.

The Yankees have some great fans, no doubt, but they also have their fair share of supporters who expect everything and are ready to jump ship two losses into the season. We might have some of the best fans in baseball right now, but that's largely because the ownership and players have given us ample compensation in return for our support. The Yanks only regained their place atop MLB attendance in 2003. There are plenty of factors contributing to how many fans the Yanks draw to games like the logistics of trying to go to a game after work in NYC and price of parking once you get there, but let's not pretend that the Stadium have been selling out through thick and thin.

I'll give you one measure that I find to be interesting, however. There are far more blogs about the Yankees' than any other team. We've got a decent amount linked up over on our Blogshelf, but check out this post by Ross at New Stadium Insider or run down the sidebar at LoHud. There are a huge amount of people that feel compelled to write about the Yankees (most of them for free) and I think that tells us something.

Maybe that something is that the Yankees have been more successful and compelling over the last 15 years than any other team in baseball. And maybe the fact that Yankees fans are so dedicated to the team isn't a function of how great we are as fans, but how successful the team has been over that time. Following the Yankees is easy. The people who follow teams like the Royals, Reds or Pirates through thick and thin are the best fans in baseball, in my opinion.

Thirsty Thursday

Honestly, I've been enjoying these Thursday off nights as of late. When the Yanks don't play, it means that I don't have to stay up late to write a recap of the game and instead can get a head start on content for the morning. Or not and just get drunk. Which is probably what I am going to do tonight since I have secured about a dozen different kinds of Oktoberfests, Autumn and Pumpkin ales. Possible review in the morning, but no promises.

In any event, this Thursday doesn't have a whole lot to offer. Had the Twins won last night, there might have been an intriguing baseball game to watch. But they didn't. (Damn you, Carl Pavano!) It would be nice if there was an entertaining college football game on TV, but Colorado vs. West Virginia most certainly isn't. It would be nice if I was a hockey fan, since the season begins tonight with a doubleheader on Versus, but I'm not. If I lived in Brooklyn I might go to the Joe Posnanski book signing at JLA Studios, but I don't.

A few more items from the "not so much" department:

OMG, Kate Hudson is pregnant! Except if she isn't. Her publicist denies said rumors but that doesn't stop the Post from reporting those two things in the same headline.

OMG, Joe Mauer is stealing signs! The Twins say he wasn't, but they obviously aren't going to cop to being nabbed by some couch vigilante. What I found enjoyable were some of the things the conspiracy theorist who uploaded the video to YouTube was trying to infer (1:54):

Very ironic statement by Bert about trusting your catcher... talking about Mauer?"

Yes, Bert Blyleven is dropping hints about sign stealing so cryptic that only you can pick up! Makes for a hell of a broadcast if you're listening from the Grassy Knoll. Rolemodel2008 also talks from the omnisicent viewpoint, dropping gems such as (3:30):

Verlander is pissed off and pretty much everyone IN the game knows what's happening...

and (4:00)...

You can tell the Twins know this happened... Cuddyer knows about it... Leyland knows about it...

I mean, do they really? You can tell by looking at the screen?

The guy seems to be going a bit overboard with his "insight", yet this has been addressed by everyone from Deadspin to the Bats blog on the New York Times' website. Did anyone bother to look at the last time Mauer was on second base? It's happened a lot of times this year, you know. Am I the only one with the MLB.tv package?

The clip is interesting, but I think the allegations merit further investigation, which no one (to my knowledge) has bothered to do. Welcome to the internet, where we just link and comment.

/dismounts soapbox

Okay, some other links...

More alleged cheating, but these accusations come without much evidence.

Mirror, Mirror, on the wall, who has the clutchiest bullpen, of them all?

Attendance is down at Yankee Stadium this year, but by how much?

The MLB Postseason announcing pairs have been, well, announced. Courtesy of, um, Awful Announcing.

A marathon interview with Joe Posnanski.

And we're probably the last Yankee blog to link to this, but here is Tom Verducci's piece on Mariano Rivera from the upcoming Sports Illustrated.

Good night and good luck. I'm out.

Back At It

When play resumed in the bottom of the 8th inning, Yankee Stadium couldn't have held more than 5,000 fans. Whittled down from the original 46,197, the 57 minute rain delay drove home the all but the most hearty Pinstripe supporters.

There were about a dozen people in each of the bleacher sections, and if you buy into the seating-based Yankee fan stereotypes, one would have to assume that many of them were sitting in better seats when Derek Jeter led off the inning with a sharp single to center. At that point, the Yankees seemed to be in control of the game, but for the first six and a half innings, that did not appear to be the case.

Despite the gloomy, overcast conditions at gametime, the weather held out for quite a while. The rain started falling in the sixth inning, and at that time the Yankees were trailing, as they had been for nearly the entire game.

To lead off the game, Curtis Granderson took two pitches before ripping a double to right off of A.J. Burnett. He came around to score two batters later (after being advanced to third), on a Miguel Cabrera groundout. The Yanks tied it up on a Hideki Matsui single in the bottom half of the inning but the Tigers added another picket to their fence in the second.

Granderson again proved lethal in the leadoff role to start the fifth inning, sending a solo shot to right center field to bring the score to 3-1. It might have stayed there if Josh Anderson hadn't let a routine single by Mark Teixeira bounce through the wickets and up against the wall, allowing Johnny Damon to score easily. It wasn't the first costly error he's committed against the Yanks this year.

For the second time in a row, A.J. Burnett wasn't sharp. However, he found a way to work around a 11 baserunners and a throwing error (his own) and keep the game competitive. He allowed 5 BBs to just 1K, and spent 104 pitches in the process of getting through 6 innings. But he never allowed more than one run in a frame and left the game with the Yanks still in striking distance at 3-2.

After Phil Hughes worked a scoreless half of the seventh inning, the Yanks jumped on Joel Zumaya in the form or a Derek Jeter single and a two bagger courtesy of Johnny Damon. Still with no one out, Mark Teixeira worked the count to 3-0, took a strike and then blasted a three run shot to RF to shift the balance of the game permanently.

Hughes came back on for the 8th and rung up 3 more K's, bringing his total to 6 for the two innings he pitched. His line included 3 hits, a balk and 40 pitches, but Phil was dominant, mixing a fastball that touched 97 with a cutter and a curve.

After the rain delay and the top half of the 9th, the Honorable Mariano Rivera brought the proceedings to a close by getting former Yankee Marcus Thames to pop out to Teix in front of the pitcher's mound.

It was the 8th time in a row that the Yankees had come out of the All-Star break with a victory, and their third win in four games against the Tigers; seemingly the only first place team they can handle this year. They'll be back at it tomorrow at 1:05 with CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander squaring off in a battle of aces.

[Photos via ESPN/AP-Bill Kostroun]

Game 22: #2

Despite the fact that there are maaaaaybe 15,000 people here, Abreu
got a warm reception.

The Quote Of The Day

...comes from Jason at It Is About The Money, Stupid, and coincidentally is about the money (stupid):

Maybe the Yanks have become a giant Ponzi scheme of their own. Bigger and bigger contracts and longer and longer commitments, all funded by a scheme of a shiny new ballpark with all the bells and whistles. But if the team slumps and that leads to attendance slumps, could we see some major changes due to solvency issues?

God, that is frightening. Unfortunately, it also makes a whole lot of sense. The same things that were seen as tremendous opportunities heading into Spring Training now seem like potential liabilities.

The New Stadium, which was supposed to create a thrust of new revenue, has large vacancies in the most expensive areas. The Yankees aren't divulging the extent to which tickets remain unsold, but the fact that they were advertising them during a Spring Training game is a terrible sign. The plan for the New Stadium was to keep the upper deck seats affordable by charging the corporations who were going to buy the luxury boxes and field level seats through the nose because of their lack of price sensitivity.

That dynamic no longer exists. Companies are pinching pennies everywhere you look, and to many of them, not having to fire an extra employee or two is worth not getting season tickets. What now? The Yankees can't lower the prices for the seats that remain unsold without royally pissing off those who have already paid full price.

There are on-the-field considerations as well. That one guy, the steroid user with 9 years on his contract and the bad hip. I was a lot more optimistic about his future about 40 days ago. As Jason points out in his post, Sabathia and Teixeira were both great acquisitions, but they were acquired at premium prices and are unlikely to look like bargains at any point in their deals. Five years of A.J. Burnett at $16.5M per... ditto.

Could the Yankees, once (and probably still) a blue chip stock, ever fall so far as to deal with solvency issues? Most of that depends on the on-field product. If they are winning, the New Stadium will be packed. However, if the Yanks are drifting lifelessly through August and September like they were last year, they are going to be a whole lot more empty seats this time around.