New Poll: Yankee Fans Are Liars

When I first saw the Toyota text poll pop up during the second inning of yesterday's game, I predicted to a few of my buddies that 70% of people would answer "Yes", knowing that the actual proportion of people still in the stands after 20 innings would be nowhere near that. The actual results?

[Sample size note: For all we know, 8 people texted in and only one of them (12.5%) said "no" but given the size of YES's audience, we'll assume that it's north of 100, making it relatively stable for analysis]

Pretty astonishing, right? The results bear no relation to reality whatsoever. Just look at how many people were still at the Mets vs. Cardinals game on Saturday night in the 19th inning compared to how many were there in the first:

You can't see the whole stadium, but it's probably safe to assume that the upper deck was even more sparsely populated given that people tend to move down to better seats as others leave. Saying that a quarter of the fans were still there would be fairly generous. And that game took place on a Saturday night, so it wasn't like most people had to get up for work in the morning.

So why is the poll so egregiously wrong?

First off, the sample is biased because it depends on people to volunteer to pick up their phone and take part in it. It's called participation bias. A text poll is always going to suffer from this type of error (as do online surveys, to a lesser degree), but if you wanted to get a better answer and still use a survey method, randomly asking people in the stands (and not at home) would give you more accurate results.

Furthermore, the average age of text polls are always going to skew younger and young people are the the ones who are more likely to actually stay for the game. Your grandfather probably isn't going to pick up his Droid and dial 58772 and there's a good chance that's he's gone long before the second seventh inning stretch rolls around.

Also, it's more likely that someone would text in to say "yes" as opposed to "no" since affirmative and/or positive answers are better at coaxing people to take part. Saying that you would leave early from an exciting game isn't something people are keen on admitting to because they think it makes them look like less of a fan. Surveys attract people by allowing them a chance to offer their opinion, so when they are somewhat ashamed or embarrassed by it, they are less likely to go out of their way to give it.

Most importantly, though, the question deals with stated intent, something that surveys often can't measure effectively. In a vacuum, I'm sure that people would like to stay and see all 20 innings of a game. It sounds great in your mind ("What an epic game!", "I'd never leave in the middle of it") but in actuality, there are a ton of small inconveniences that you don't bother to take into consideration.

It becomes uncomfortable to sit in the same crappy plastic seats for over 7 hours, especially when they stopped serving beer in the middle of the 7th and most (or all) of the other concessions stands are probably shut down as well. Of course people are going to claim that they would stick it out when they are sitting on their cushy couch watching the third inning of a game on a lazy Sunday afternoon, but when they are at the park, stomach growling, legs falling asleep, and eyelids seemingly increasing in weight, it's easy to turn to the person next to you and say "Do you wanna get the hell out of here or what?". Staying for an entire marathon extra inning game is a classic example of something that's "easier said than done" and surveys can only measure the "said" part.

So perhaps the headline was a little misleading. It's not that people are exactly lying; most aren't willfully misrepresenting their positions. This is just an example of a time when a survey question has no correlation with reality. I don't know if it's a bad question, necessarily, because no one is basing any decisions on the outcome of it, but the results certainly don't reflect the truth in any way shape or form.

Odds & Ends From Last Night

Good morning, Fackers. There were some incredible moments in last night's game that ranged from brutal to ecstatic. We covered the latter in the recap focusing on the 9th inning last night early this morning, but still wanted to talk about some of the events that set the stage for the dramatic conclusion.

• If I didn't know any better, I'd say that Joe Blanton hit A-Rod on purpose in the first inning. Joe Blanton has hit just 26 batters in over 1000 career innings pitched. It just so happens he nails the Yanks' best hitter on the first pitch he throws to him? There certainly was an edge to be gained. The Phillies had gotten in CC Sabathia's head (not to mention A-Rod's) before the first half inning was over. One misplaced pitched and CC could have been done for the game. Joe Girardi told the media that the umps said they would use their judgment if someone was hit by a pitch, but home plate umpire Mike Everett's judgement left much to be desired last night.
  
  
• Everett's strike zone, especially early in the game, was inconsistent to say the least. In the first inning alone, he called 5 of CC Sabathia's pitches that were clearly inside the strike zone or very close, balls. He also extended the plate outside against left handed hitters a good six inches throughout the night. Joe Blanton struck out 7 Yankees, 4 of them looking. Enough said.
  
  
• In the fourth inning, Everett ruled Ryan Howard safe at home although he never touched the plate. It was a non-issue as he knocked the ball away from Jorge Posada and the Yankees never tagged him, but Everett was right on top of the play and had no excuse to miss it.
  
  
• Chase Utley made a costly mistake on defense in the 5th inning (but made up for it at the plate later). Going to a double play instead of a sure force out on a grounder up the middle by Melky Cabrera, Utley attempted to flip the ball to Jimmy Rollins, but instead threw it straight up in the air and the runners were safe. It was scored a single, but it was obvious that he had the out at second and was getting greedy.
  
  
• This brought up Sabathia with runners on first and second with no one out. Joe Girardi asked him to bunt. I'm guessing he was trying to stay out of the double play, which is semi-defensible, but Joe still had CC bunting with two strikes. With a pitcher who hits as well as Sabathia (and bunts as poorly) at the plate with the infield playing in, it was a very poor decision.
  
  
• In the bottom half of the 5th, CC gave up a single to Jimmy Rollins and a walk to Shane Victorino before recording an out. The heart of the Phillies' order was looming but Sabathia induced pop outs from Chase Utley and Ryan Howard and struck out Jayson Werth swinging to escape unscathed.
  
  
• Sabathia was awfully close to equaling the 7 innings of two run ball he threw in Game 1 when the Chase Utley stepped to the plate with two outs in the 7th. With an RBI double against CC earlier in the evening and two home runs off of him in Game 1, Utley again hurt the Big Fella. It was a 1-2 slider that hung up in the strike zone which Utley hammered to right field for a solo homer. As well as Utley had hit Sabathia and with Damaso Marte ready to go out of the 'pen, I think the only reason Girardi didn't pull Sabathia is because there was no one on base.
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• Melky Cabrera left the game with a strained hamstring after trying to beat out a groundball to first base. It's likely that Melky is done for the Series and the Yanks may make a roster move such as recalling Freddy Guzman to replace Brett Gardner as a pinch runner off the bench. Melky played pretty well this postseason and no one wants to see a player get injured, but if you had to pick a starting position player, he would be the easy choice.
  
  
• Joba Chamberlain was very nearly the goat of the game. After CC Sabathia and Damaso Marte finished off the 7th inning Joba struck out Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez swinging. He had Pedro Feliz down 1-2, but let him back to 3-2, and on the payoff pitch Feliz belted a line drive home run to left field. For the second time in two innings the Yanks had the Phillies down to their last strike but gave up solo homers. It tied to game at the time at 4 and things looked grim for the Yanks. Joba came back to strikeout Carlos Ruiz to end the inning but was visibly torn up in the dugout. After the Yanks rallied in the 9th, the cameras showed him thanking his teammates.
  
  
• The crowd in Philly upheld it's sterling reputation by chanting at various times "Yankees suck", "Derek Jeter sucks", "CC Sucks" among others, typically at point when the Phillies were losing.
  
  
• Speaking of the crowd, Citizens Bank Park was just as quiet as Yankee Stadium at various times. Jimmy Rollins' contention that it would sound more like a World Series at the games in Philly is partially true, but when their team is losing a pivotal game in the World Series, fans aren't going to be very loud.
  
  
• Speaking of partially true things said by Jimmy Rollins, he might have predicted the series length correctly, he just had the wrong team.

Back To Back To Business

It wasn't Joba Chamberlain's night tonight, and for the second of his starts in a row, it didn't really have to be. The offense came alive in the first inning with 3 straight hits to lead off the game and took a 2-0 lead out of the box. Robinson Cano scored on a sac fly in the 2nd and Joba was staked to a comfortable early lead. Or so it seemed.

Chamberlain hit the skids in the third inning when he loaded the bases with two outs via a walk, a single and another walk. Lyle Overbay continued his solid series with a bases clearing double to tie the score. The Jays tacked on another run with a solo shot by Bronx native Randy Ruiz in the 4th. Joba made it to the 6th without allowing any further damage and finished with five strikeouts and two walks.

The scored remained at stuck at 4-3 until the bottom of the eighth. Cito Gaston brought in lefty Jesse Carlson to face Hideki Matsui, which is amusing because Matsui is slugging .122 higher against lefties this year and the batter behind him, Jorge Posada has been better against southpaws this year as well. Matsui hit a prodigious blast past the second deck in right and Posada followed it with one that necessitated instant reply and barely evaded Joe Inglett's leaping try. The place went bonkers and the Yanks were up for good. Although Mariano Rivera gave up a home run to Edwin Encarnacion, he still converted teh save and the Bombers previaled 7-5.

This homestand has stirred the New Stadium to levels of noise and euphoria that haven't been experienced since the place across the street was still open. Some people thought the new building was to blame for the lack of enthusiasm early in the season, but it turns out that fans just needed something to get legimately excited about. After the slow start, the Yankees steadily picked up steam but didn't full hit their stride until the series against the Sox. Lately they've have the feel of one of the vintage Yankee teams who was never out of a game and the crowd is responding to it. It's a good time to be pulling for the Pinstripes.

Cheering For Dummies

Via the Shyster over at his NBC Circling The Bases gig, the guys from Freakonomics have a some complaints about the chants at Citi Field last night, and it's not the one you'd expect to hear from a middle aged guy who took his family to a game:

A pattern quickly emerged. The many Yankees fans regularly broke into their thunderous cheer: “Let’s go Yankees!” (clap-clap-clap-clap … clap-clap). If you are a Yankees fan (we are; but we do not hate the Mets), this was a sign of what might be called prideful hubris, or maybe hubristic pride: we can come into your stadium and rock it very, very hard.

How’d the Mets fans respond? Succinctly. In the space where the Yankees fans did their rhythmic clapping, Mets fans shouted “Yankees suck!”

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This pattern was repeated all night. What surprised me is that neither side found a way to improve their effort.

The problem with chanting is that it is, by definition, the lowest common denominator. The more clever or unique the fewer people are going to jump on board with you. If the chant isn't immediately recognizable, it won't spread. Conversely, when someone starts up with "Let's go Yank-ees" invariably, at least a few people will tag along.

As for "Yank-ees Suck!", is it my imagination, or did that only used to be the domain of Red Sox fans? I've heard the chant break out at concerts in the Boston area or pretty much any other public setting where more than 50 drunk people are gathered together. Now the de facto anti-Yankees chant throughout basically every place the Bombers have visited this year.

Regardless of the hollow inanity of "Let's Go Yank-ees" or the falsehood of "Yank-ees Suck" I'm afraid they are here to stay. Aside from "Hip-Hip-Jorge" and other player-centric chants, this is what stadium cheering has been dumbed down to.