Do The "Right" Thing

Mike Vaccaro has some, um, interesting suggestions as to what the Mets should do in the wake of the injury that Francisco Rodriguez "almost certainly" sustained when he assaulted the grandfather of his children last week:

So K-Rod is kaput for now, and now the Mets must prove they have the intestinal fortitude for more. If ever there was a situation that screamed for a baseball club to do the right thing, to send an unbending message, it is now.

First, they have to fight to void that portion of the contract that will coincide with his time away from the team. That means the rest of this year, at a minimum.

And then they have to rid themselves of the headache for good. If that means exiling Rodriguez in the offseason — a move that would almost certainly entail them having to eat most of his remaining deal — that’s fine. If that means going after the balance of the contract in what would be a precedent-setting move the commissioner’s office would probably rather them not fight — even better.

Obviously, the Mets are going to do what they can to void this year's portion of the contract, because I'm pretty sure that if Aaron Boone tearing his knee apart playing basketball negates his deal with the Yankees, injuries sustained while punching someone in the face (if they can prove that) would do the trick for K-Rod.

But is Vaccarro really suggesting that the Mets should eat Rodriguez's 2011 salary of $11.5M and a buyout of $3.5M in order to "do the right thing" and "send an unbending message"? What message would that be and who would it be directed towards, exactly? That would be a pretty damn expensive statement to make. It would be way cheaper to just take out a full page ad in every newspaper in New York.

The bottom line is that, in the world of guaranteed contracts, getting "fired" doesn't really mean anything, because you still get paid, so the intended message wouldn't even be reaching the person at the center of this whole embarrassing episode: K-Rod. The deal he signed with the Mets before the 2009 season was worth $37M. Although we are desensitized to those kinds of numbers because of the megadeals that other guys sign, that is still generational wealth.

If Rodriguez never gets another dime or playing baseball after this, he is still set for life. However, even if the Mets send the sort of bullshit "message" that Vaccaro is talking about, some other team is invariably going to give him a shot because he can get Major League hitters out. That's how sports work. It's not about morality, it's about winning (and the money).

Game 42 Win Expectancy Chart

Off Night Links

[Again via 30fps]

Yet another baseball-less night. Here are a few things to help pass the time.

Navin Vaswani, better know on Twitter, in the blogoverse and on occasion in our comment section as "eyebleaf" is doing a project for the Toronto Globe and Mail during which he'll travel by bus and visit all 30 Major League ballparks in 60 days. He's a Jays fan and filed his report of yesterday's Yankees and Rangers game from the refreshing perspective of an outsider. Tonight, he's off to see the Mets play the Cubs at Citi Field before he continues his journey. If, like me, you are extremely jealous of the awesome trip Navin is embarking on, you can keep up with his dispatches here.

+100 to Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talk for this headline.

The Yankees are heading to the White House next Monday.

Will Leitch has an excellent feature in New York Magazine about advanced defensive metrics awesomely-titled "Databases Loaded".

Both Joe Posnanksi and Larry from IIATMS took a look at the Forbes Business of Baseball Rankings. It's really staggering how much more money the Yankees make than everyone, particularly at the gates.

Sam Dolnick of the New York Times wrote a piece about the street named after Thurman Munson. There's a great quote from Munson's widow, Diana, in it:

“He wasn’t about the big superhighway and mainstream streets,” she said. “It fits his personality so much more that it would be an out-of-the-way street and be something that not a lot of people would embrace.”

In conjunction with his new gig at RotoGraphs, Mike from River Ave. Blues made an appearance on FanGraphs Audio this weekend to talk about fantasy baseballing.

Last week, a message informing people of a Metro North train with service to Yankee Stadium was accidentally replaced with a warning of a bomb threat at several stations. Oops.

The Wire + Baseball = Win.

More Soxenfreude, this time from Charles P. Pierce who thinks that it's not too early to panic over the Red Sox. As much as I'd like to agree with him, it is. We're only through 7.5% of the season and although they've stumbled out of the gate, they're going to find their way soon enough.

Morgan Ensberg wrote a post at his blog this weekend about the real reason the pace of play in the MLB is so much slower than it used to be: Bud Selig. Not really, it's the commercial breaks and FOX, ESPN and TBS get an extra 30 seconds every time. But the players are only allotted 8 seconds of at bat music because that's the real menace.

Dave Cameron, who just joined FanGraphs full time, talks about the Mariners' baserunning so far this year and attempts to draw the line between aggressive and reckless.

Ubaldo Jiminez threw a no hitter this weekend, which is cool and everything, but he had six walks and needed the 10th most pitches of the Retrosheet era to do it. It's still an impressive feat without a doubt, but wouldn't, say, a two hit, two walk complete game shutout technically be better?

An interesting note from that game: Matt pointed out that Jiminez started throwing exclusively from the stretch after the 6th inning and didn't give up a walk after that.

Sagiv from Fire Jerry Manuel took Jon Heyman to task for saying that Andy Pettitte is going to the Hall of Fame for pretty much the same reasons he said he wouldn't vote for Bert Blyleven.

Speaking of firing Jerry Manuel, Matthew Carruth at FanGraphs took him to task for allowing not only holding back Francisco Rodriguez from pitching until the 19th inning on Saturday, but letting him warm up in every single inning before that, throwing over 100 pitches. Warm up pitches aren't imaginary, Jerry, they tax pitchers' arms too.

Do the Mets need Jesus in their lives? Mike Francesa doesn't see why he would choose them over any other team in the division.

There are parallel characters in The Sandlot and Reservior Dogs? You bet.

That's all for tonight. Catch you in the AM.

New Poll: Yankee Fans Are Liars

When I first saw the Toyota text poll pop up during the second inning of yesterday's game, I predicted to a few of my buddies that 70% of people would answer "Yes", knowing that the actual proportion of people still in the stands after 20 innings would be nowhere near that. The actual results?

[Sample size note: For all we know, 8 people texted in and only one of them (12.5%) said "no" but given the size of YES's audience, we'll assume that it's north of 100, making it relatively stable for analysis]

Pretty astonishing, right? The results bear no relation to reality whatsoever. Just look at how many people were still at the Mets vs. Cardinals game on Saturday night in the 19th inning compared to how many were there in the first:

You can't see the whole stadium, but it's probably safe to assume that the upper deck was even more sparsely populated given that people tend to move down to better seats as others leave. Saying that a quarter of the fans were still there would be fairly generous. And that game took place on a Saturday night, so it wasn't like most people had to get up for work in the morning.

So why is the poll so egregiously wrong?

First off, the sample is biased because it depends on people to volunteer to pick up their phone and take part in it. It's called participation bias. A text poll is always going to suffer from this type of error (as do online surveys, to a lesser degree), but if you wanted to get a better answer and still use a survey method, randomly asking people in the stands (and not at home) would give you more accurate results.

Furthermore, the average age of text polls are always going to skew younger and young people are the the ones who are more likely to actually stay for the game. Your grandfather probably isn't going to pick up his Droid and dial 58772 and there's a good chance that's he's gone long before the second seventh inning stretch rolls around.

Also, it's more likely that someone would text in to say "yes" as opposed to "no" since affirmative and/or positive answers are better at coaxing people to take part. Saying that you would leave early from an exciting game isn't something people are keen on admitting to because they think it makes them look like less of a fan. Surveys attract people by allowing them a chance to offer their opinion, so when they are somewhat ashamed or embarrassed by it, they are less likely to go out of their way to give it.

Most importantly, though, the question deals with stated intent, something that surveys often can't measure effectively. In a vacuum, I'm sure that people would like to stay and see all 20 innings of a game. It sounds great in your mind ("What an epic game!", "I'd never leave in the middle of it") but in actuality, there are a ton of small inconveniences that you don't bother to take into consideration.

It becomes uncomfortable to sit in the same crappy plastic seats for over 7 hours, especially when they stopped serving beer in the middle of the 7th and most (or all) of the other concessions stands are probably shut down as well. Of course people are going to claim that they would stick it out when they are sitting on their cushy couch watching the third inning of a game on a lazy Sunday afternoon, but when they are at the park, stomach growling, legs falling asleep, and eyelids seemingly increasing in weight, it's easy to turn to the person next to you and say "Do you wanna get the hell out of here or what?". Staying for an entire marathon extra inning game is a classic example of something that's "easier said than done" and surveys can only measure the "said" part.

So perhaps the headline was a little misleading. It's not that people are exactly lying; most aren't willfully misrepresenting their positions. This is just an example of a time when a survey question has no correlation with reality. I don't know if it's a bad question, necessarily, because no one is basing any decisions on the outcome of it, but the results certainly don't reflect the truth in any way shape or form.

Cone Done Gone?

(Unflattering screengrab via The Sports Hernia)

Good morning Fackers. Over the weekend, Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record passed along a rather pessimistic update concerning David Cone's tenure as an analyst for the YES Network:

It appears Cone’s short but brilliant run in the YES broadcast booth may be over. Sources say Cone is out after a heated disagreement with network executives.

A spokesman confirmed via e-mail: “David’s contract is up. We’d love to have him back, but he’s in the process of evaluating his various options. … He may not be back based on what he decides.”

Cone’s skill and confidence grew appreciably in the past year. Like former-Met teammate Ron Darling, he had a graceful way of explaining baseball to casual fans, but also was immersed in cutting edge sabermetrics.

Michael Kay said, “I’d come into the booth five hours before a game and Coney would already be there, buried in the computer, looking up stats.”

Kay then added, "Ha. Stats..."

Of course, this isn't the first time a disagreement between Cone and the Yankees has prevented him from doing broadcasting work. He was a part of the YES Network when it first launched in 2002. However, when he attempted a comeback with the 2003 Mets instead of the Yanks, George Steinbrenner told him that he would not be welcome back with the organization. (Cone's 2003 lasted all of 18 innings and included 13 ER, so The Boss probably should have thanked him). Eventually a truce was reached and Cone replaced Joe Girardi when he made the jump from the press box to the dugout.

When Cone first reappeared on air back in 2008, I didn't really like his work. He doesn't have a great broadcasting voice and anytime there is a new person in the booth, it takes some time to appreciate their insights. However, I wholeheartedly agree with Klapisch's assertion that Cone was better this year.

Cone both cited advanced statistics and let his personality shine though in 2009. He frequently referenced FanGraphs.com (which most certainly endeared him to statistically-minded Yankees fans), spoke of his secondary education (which supposedly took place at an Irish Bar on the Lower East Side) and gave out his phone number on air.

If Cone does leave YES, odds are he'll end up at the MLB Network or ESPN. However, the most likely position for him there would be a studio analyst. If Cone wants to be in the booth, YES might still be his best option. For those who have come to appreciate the presence of the former hurler during Yanks games (including Matt and myself), there's still some hope that he could return for 2010. From what he's said on-air, it's clear that he loves New York and in talking to other fans, it seems like New York would love to have him back. Let's hope it all works out.

The Many Facets Of The Billy Wagner Signing

As was reported this morning, the Atlanta Braves signed Billy Wagner to a $7M deal with a $6.5M option that vests if he finishes 50 games in 2010. Wagner is no spring chicken - he'll turn 39 next July - and he only pitched 15 2/3 Major League innings since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2009. Granted, he was effective in those innings, but signing him carries a great deal of risk. It's not the deal itself that makes the Braves acquisition interesting, though; it's what it took to get to this point and what will also change hands as a result (and the fact that the Mets screwed themselves).

If you'll recall, the Mets traded Wagner to the Red Sox after only two appearances following his return from injury for (at the time) two players to be named later. It seemed as though the Red Sox were shoring up their bullpen for the stretch run and postseason, but in retrospect it seems that Theo Epstein had a little something more up his sleeve.

One of those PTBNL was a 26 year old minor league first baseman/outfielder named Chris Carter. In six MiLB seasons, Carter had a batting line of .306/.380/.510, but only sniffed the Majors because of the Fackin' Youkstah occupying 1B and several very capable (and expensive) players taking up the corners of the outfield. However, given the absence of Carlos Delgado and the struggles of David Murphy on the Mets, he would have been a useful piece and figured to get his first taste of regular season playing time in the Bigs.

Carter was on the 40 man roster of the Sox and in order for him to be included in the trade (since it occurred after the non-waiver deadline of July 31st) he had to pass through waivers (one of the reasons teams rarely send back players on the 40 man in waiver deals). Unfortunately for him, the Yankees placed a waiver claim on Carter and denied him the MLB at bats that he must have so badly desired. Since the Red Sox decided they needed that 40 man roster spot for pitcher Dustin Richardson (who pitched 3.1 innings for them this year), they DFA'd Carter, at which point any team could have claimed him - even the Mets, which would have forced the Sox to include someone else an additional player in the deal - but no one did.

So at the conclusion of the season, Carter returned to the Sox and, in addition to Eddie Lora, a 20 year old first baseman still in the Gulf Coast League, was sent to the Mets and the deal was completed.

When the Sox acquired Wagner, he asked them to agree that they would not exercise his $8M option for 2010 in hopes that he could close somewhere else. The Sox agreed to that term, but

were still allowed to offer him arbitration.

In a perfect world, Wagner would have been a Type B or unclassified free agent since he only pitched in 17 games last year, but since the Elias Rankings take previous years into consideration, he attained Type A status. As a result, when the Sox offered him arbitration, he turned it down and now they will likely receive the Braves 20th overall pick in addition to a supplemental rounder. Since the Sox are looking for a second baseman or shortstop (depending on whether Dustin Pedroia actually changes positions) it could lessen the burden of picking up a player like Marco Scutaro, who would cost the Sox a first round pick as our buddy Jason points out.

The Braves are not all that concerned about giving up their first round pick since they actually have two Type A free agents of their own hitting the marketplace - Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez - and figure that one or both are likely to decline the arbitration offers from the Braves and sign elsewhere. They surrendered their first rounder, but signed a pitcher who could very well fill the role of closer and doubled down with a team-friendly option if Wagner performs well this year.

The Sox got one of the highest draft picks you can receive in free agent compensation (#20, since the top 15 are protected) if the Braves don't sign a higher-ranking free agent and a supplemental rounder in exchange for a spare part and a Rookie League first baseman.

And what about the Mets? They ended up with Chris Carter, who could be a somewhat useful piece on their team next year, although at 27 he has limited upside, and Eddie Lora, who is light years away from the MLB.

Did Omar Minaya overlook the draft pick compensation system when he dealt Wagner on the cheap? Did Theo Epstein have it in mind when he acquired him? I can't help but think the Sox made out like bandits here.

Metsenfreude

I know there are a handful of Mets fans who read the blog, so I really don't mean to pour salt in the wounds. But how incredible is it that, in a season in which the Metropolitans spent 150 million dollars and lost 92 games due mostly to injuries to essentially every good player on their team, that the World Series title with either be awarded to their most hated rivals or their also-hated crosstown rivals who already own the city?

How many times have you heard someone say "Just when you thought things couldn't get an worse" in reference to the Mets this year? And invariably, impossibly, they've gotten worse. Madoff, the logo, Beltran, Reyes, J.J. Putz, the Castillo drop, him spraining his ankle walking down the dugout steps, Bernazrd, Minaya & Rubin, trading for Jeff Francoeur, the home run apple malfunctioning, Santana's surgery, structural damage to Citi Field, David Wright's concussion and subsequent oversized helmet, and now this. At one point, I even compared them to the Knicks.

I'm rubbing it in, aren't I? Sorry, I'll stop. If you don't want to watch the World Series this year, we'll understand.

Today In Headlines That Shouldn't Need To Be Written

Why Last Night’s Loss Doesn’t Necessarily Mean This Is 2004 All Over Again

Jon DeLessio over at The Sports Section at New York Magazine would like to talk you down from a metaphorical ledge. His hostage negotiation tactics include A) comparing 2009 A-Rod to 2004 David Ortiz, B) saying that the homefield advantage is somehow better this time although both teams went (57-24) at home, and C) pointing out that CC Sabathia would start a Game 7 should it be necessary. Guess which one of these is a valid point. If you said C, congratulations, you may be a rational person!

The problem is that the people who are standing on said ledge are not going to be talked down from it.

If you've given up on this series after one loss, you're a special kind of pathetic. That's the kind of fatalism reserved for Red Sox, Cubs and Mets fans.

Here are some reasons that this year, even if the worst case scenario comes to fruition, isn't 2004:

1. The deficit wasn't 3-0
2. These aren't the Red Sox
3. This isn't 5 years ago
4. There are 5 players out of 50 that the two playoff rosters have in common - six if you count Johnny Damon, which I don't

So no, Wallace Matthews. This wouldn't be worse than 2004, you moron.

Just as a blowout victory in Game 4 didn't predict success in last night's game, one tough loss doesn't mean the Yanks are going to drop the last two. Relax everyone, it's still match point and we've got the next two serves.

Remember when everyone was in agreement that this was going to be a great series? Well, in a great series, there are going to be triumphs and tragedies. Glorious victories and heartbreaking losses. Let's try not to lose our minds so badly in the latter that we can't enjoy the former.

It's Friday night. Blow off some steam. I might be witnessing some amateur pugilism. Some of you are probably planning to get extremely drunk. Others may be doing slightly more respectable activities like going out to dinner and seeing a movie. Do your respective things and let's meet back here sometime tomorrow afternoon.

Elsewhere In The Blogiverse...

Today was a slow day on the floor of the Fack Youk Idea Factory, but as always, we can point you to some others who were more productive.

If you've got some time, Rob Neyer takes a look at the playoff picture on his podcast. He's not too worried about the Yankees' flaws and talks about the two remaining races.

New Stadium Insider has the scoop that the Yankees will be introducing $75 "Cafe Seating" in the areas behind some of the 100 levels where the best standing room areas were. Great news since this means more availability of postseason tickets.

Might the Yanks rest all of their regulars tonight? Pete Abe tosses out the possibility. Joel Sherman offers a slightly different possibility. I think I would be fun to see just for the off chance that they beat the Royals entirely with their B-squad.

Interested in some baseball that matters? The Twins head down to Detroit for a four game set, trailing the Tigers by two games in the AL Central. Rick Porcello and Nick Blackbrun face off tonight. Circling the Bases breaks down the series game by game. River Ave. Blues and LoHud both take a look at the combatants and determine that we Yanks fans should be pulling for the Twins. I'm on board with that because rooting for team who has to come from behind is more fun anyway.

Sherman thinks that A-Rod might be primed for a big postseason. I would tend to agree but not because of the way he has removed himself from the spotlight like Sherman contends. A-Rod is a great hitter and is simply due for at least a decent postseason series.

Your daily helping of Soxenfreude, courtesy of Boston.com.

Jeff Pearlman talks to former Yankee catcher Sal Fasano about trying to hang on one more year in the Big Leagues to afford health insurance for his son, who has hypoplastic heart syndrome.

Big League Stew ranks the 5 most disappointing teams of 2009. Somehow the Mets behind the Rays, who play in the AL East with a tiny payroll and figure to finish over .500 but the Mets with their massive payroll and their public follies are currently 67-89. Think someone was a little too high on Tampa Bay coming into the season?

We'll be back in a bit with tonight's preview.

Keeping The Slow March Towards The Weekend Moving

Well folks, after an off day and before a West Coast game, as the season starts to wind down and the playoff picture becomes increasingly clear, there simply isn't as much to write about, either for us or the beat writers. The minor league season is over, so now we get to hear about how C.C. Sabathia is happy that, unlike last year, he isn't being ridden like a rented mule. We also discover that Mark Melancon is here to "get outs and throw strikes". Riveting stuff.

We can't really complain because neither Matt nor I have any more original ideas to shape into posts that don't involve making fun of Brett Tomko (more on that below), so we are left to cobble together another afternoon link aggregation. It's a slow day and we're try to do our part to help move it along. Here we go:

Bernie Williams is a better player than Omar Sosa! No, Richard Dreyfuss didn't hijack my keyboard, they both are nominated for a Latin Grammy for "Best Instrumental Album", an award roughly as prestigious as being named the Best Lefthanded Middle Reliever in the Pacific Coast League.

Turns out the Yanks/Blue Jays brawl was a laughing matter.

Did you read about Brett Tomko's last start, a complete game shutout against the Rangers, and think it was too good to be true? Well, it was. He threw 114 pitches that night and couldn't move his arm the next morning. He's been shut down for the season. (h/t RAB)

As expected, there are some juicy tidbits in wife-swapper Fritz Peterson's possibly ironically-titled upcoming book "Mickey Mantle Is Going To Heaven", namely that the Yankee Clipper was "arrogant" and the Chairman of the Board doctored the ball. (h/t CTB)

The Yankees are being sued for age discrimination by waiters from ages 66 to 80 that worked at the Old Stadium but were turned away from jobs in the new one. From my experiences with the cocktail waitresses at Harrahs in Las Vegas, I'm going to have to side with the Yankees on this one.

Another breakdown of Andrew Brackman's season, this time from FanGraphs.

Maybe the Yankees won't be starting next year at Fenway after all.

After blowing the Red Sox vs. Angels game on Wednesday, the umps involved have filed a grievance against the Angels coaches, because, you know, they were the ones who being "unprofessional" not the umps who completely blew the call.

The Mets have to be better next year, right? RIGHT?

A Good Day For An Off Night

Barring the occurrence of foul weather or some other act of God, the Yankees won't play on Thursday for the rest of the regular season. With the games coming in at even more sporadic intervals in the postseason, we are beginning to be weened off baseball, whether we like it or not. Fortunately, just as baseball season is winding down, football starts to gear up. Line drives are slowly supplanted by long drives, first innings by first downs, base hits by big hits, stolen bases by interceptions and pop ups by touchdowns.

Last year the advent of football season was a welcome relief because while the Yankees' season was in its final throes, the Giants were embarking on their first Super Bowl defense since I was in second grade. With the Yankees continuing to destroy everything in their path this year, it seems like football is here too soon.

Matt ushered in the College Football season a couple of weeks ago quite beautifully, but the pigskin doesn't grab my attention until the NFL schedule starts up. Today, Big Daddy Drew at Deadspin posted his first NFL Dick Joke Jambaroo of the year, a must read for any pro football fan.

I'm a baseball fan first, but I never sit in front of the TV on a Sunday and watch two or three games that the Yankees aren't playing in. Maybe it has something to do with the temperature outside or fantasy football or gambling, but I think all of those things speak to why football is more popular than baseball. It's inherently more compelling to the casual observer. Baseball might have more to offer to those who care to look deeper, but Football doesn't require that kind of commitment.

Tonight the ratings of the Steelers vs. Titans game will almost certainly squash those of all seven of the baseball games that are on, combined.

Way back in February, I made a hokey analogy equating baseball with friendship and football with love. I'd probably change a few things if I were to write the post again, but I think the point still remains. Football is electric and physical, baseball is cordial and cerebral.

It's probably a good thing that the Yankees season slows to a halt for tonight. We get to take a step back from baseball in general and Jetermania in particular.

If you're a football fan, enjoy the game. If you're a solely baseball fan, I guess you could watch the Mets? Either way, we'll be back tomorrow morning.

A Good Weekend, But Not Good Enough For Some

Rise and shine, Fackers. I know it's Monday, but the good weekend that was in Yankeeland should help soften the blow. They managed to get in all three games without so much as a delay despite a tropical depression lurking just off the coast in the Atlantic which prevented some complications later in the season. Although the Yanks struggled in their first meeting with the White Sox in Chicago, they swept this three game set and might have dealt the final blow to the Pale Hose' playoff hopes for this year.

After surrendering the lead in a dramatic 7th inning on Friday, the Bombers got a walk off, homer from Robinson Cano, with runners in scoring position, no less. Saturday played host to an offensive explosion and a stellar pitching contribution from the most unlikely of places. You can't tell just by looking at the final score, but Sunday's game was more similar to Friday's than Saturday's in that it was hotly contested. The Yanks held on tight until the bottom of the seventh inning and only after that did their offense finally take over.

In their past 9 games (dating back to the beginning of the Red Sox series), the Yanks have scored an average of 8 runs per game, which has allowed them to go 6-3 during that stretch against three teams that were all in Wild Card contention when it began despite allowing almost 6 against.

Steve at Was Watching, however, is not impressed. Yesterday, he noted that the Yankees are "only" 33-30 when playing a team with a record at or above .500 and even goes as far as to label the post "possible bad news". The point of the article was apparently to insinuate that the Yankees are doomed in the playoffs:

...but, I'm thinking ahead to the post-season, for the Yankees. And, there will be no Blue Jays, A's, Orioles, Twins or Mets for the Yankees to play in October. Most likely, New York will have to deal with Detroit or Texas in the ALDS and then face someone like the Angels, Red Sox or Rays in the ALCS (should the Yankees advance past the ALDS for the first time since 2004). And, that’s a horse of another color, no?

Well yes, the postseason is different than the regular season. But the rest of that argument? Yikes. Where to begin?

How about the fact that the Twins, who Steve lumped in with the "losing" teams, as a result of winning ONE GAME, are now at .500, swinging the Yankees record from 33-30 to 40-30 against these teams, which is now the best in the AL. So his post went from spurious to irrelevant in roughly 5 hours.

Just because it's listed in a column on Baseball-Reference doesn't make it a useful stat. Aside from the perfect example provided by the Twins above (which could have been prevented by removing their 0-7 record against the Yanks), there are plenty of good reasons not to take much stock in team's play against other squads with "winning records".

For one, the teams are divided based on their cumulative record for the season, which for various reasons doesn't always accurately reflect their strength at various points within it. For instance, the Yankees took 5 of the 6 games they played against the Mets this year, but going into that 6th game, the Mets were 37-36. Now, after putting $85M on the DL, they are a shell of their former selves and 13 games below .500 so it looks like the Yankees were beating up on a cupcake.

A while back, (actually while debunking a piece on WSJ.com that claimed having a losing record against teams over .500 was actually a good thing) we determined that the average winning percentage against teams over .500 is around .430. This means that an average team would be 27-36 against teams with winning records through 63 games. Using that as a benchmark, even the 33-30 Steve was working with is quite a healthy showing.

As we have more recently discussed, the fine folks as Baseball Prospectus have studied what makes a team likely to succeed in October and at no point was the team's record against opponents with winning records even factored into the equation.

For better or for worse, over the next month, more and more emphasis is going to be placed on the Yankees odds in the postseason. There will be countless theories proposed about why the Yanks are poised to return to World Series glory or be bounced in the first round. The truth is that there are a myriad of variables that will ultimately determine how they fare, and the most important one is luck.

A Cup Of Coffee And A Link Dump

Top of the morning to you, Fackers. I'm going to be tied up for the early part of the day, so I thought I'd brew up some links to keep you busy while I'm gone.

According to Buster Onley, the Yankees put a waiver claim on Brad Penny earlier this month and have interest in signing him now that he's asked for and recieved his release from the Red Sox. Hey, he's better than Sergio Mitre, right...?

Brendan as IIATM,S looks at Josh Willingham as a potential offseason trade target for the Yanks. He's having a a great year, but isn't the kind of player the Nationals are likely very attached to considering he's 31 and about to hit arbitration.

Great post from Mike at RAB looking at Joba's pitch selection, namely his reliance on the slider. When he first came up, hitters simply couldn't identify it, especially when contrasted with his 98MPH fastball. Now with his velocity sitting considerably lower and full scouting reports on his tendencies, the pitch is loosing its effectiveness.

With Derek Jeter climbing in the Yankee record books in seemingly every category, Jonah Keri takes a look at where he ranks among the greatest Pinstripers of all time.

Mr. Cashman makes life a little more difficult for the Red Sox. Matthew Pouliot looks at how it might harm the career of the player involved.

Did you know THIS is what Kate Smith looked like? If you were part of our live chat yesterday you did.

Another voice of reason from WEEI. However, I think Jim Rice could carry Derek Jeter's jock... very intimidatingly.

Last night, Nick Green did his best Nick Swisher impression.

So now it appears that the list of positive tests in 2003 never should have been seized the the government in the first place, which means that the names on it never would have been leaked. Our pal Craig reminds us that calling for all of the names on the list to come out is a fool's errand, and thinks that the names may continue to leak.

Lar from wezen-ball takes a deep (as in cavernously deep) look at walk-off wins over at The Baseball Analysts.

John Dewan takes a second shot at the ability of first basemen to scoop throws.

Another tough break for the Mets...

A list of the 12 best Mets quotes of all time. Amazingly, "He has lobby myself" didn't make the cut.

It's football, but take a look at the scrap heap.

More football... Another beat writer bites the dust. Damn you Gannett! /shakes fist at the sky.

A poisonous pitcher plant that eats rats? Bad. Ass. Now when are they going to start growing some in the NYC Subways?

More science... Are we descended from aquatic apes? Carl Everett certainly doesn't think so.

That's it for now. Matt will have some thoughts on Phil Coke shortly and we have some bigger stuff coming this afternoon, hopefully. Catch you later on.

Humpday Linkification

It's 3:00 and I haven't come across much of anything worth turning into a post, and unlike Matt I haven't come up with any interesting, original ideas on my own, either. So here we are again with a batch of links to tide you over until tonight's game preview goes up at 5.

From the Yanks:

Tyler Kepner notes that Mariano Rivera converted his 100th save in 104 chances last night. His ERA is under 2 despite being close to 4 in the beginning of May. He's got 10 appearances where he has recorded more than 3 outs this year including three out of his last four. It's great that he can still do it, but you'd think Girardi might want to ease up on the guy a bit...

In related news, FanGraphs says his cutter is only the 4th best in baseball (go to #7)? A.J. Burnett's fastball pales in comparison to his curveball (#11).

Why is Anthony Claggett going to Toronto? (h/t RAB on Twitter) Hopefully Cody Ransom is getting DFA'd and no one is hurt (Aceves?)...

Joel Sherman praises the additions of Eric Hinkse and Jerry Hairston, Jr. for adding much needed depth to the Yankee bench. He also wonders if Mark Melancon's role will increase as the pennant race heats up.

Michael Safino of SNY says the Yanks shouldn't shut Joba down. He says the Verducci Effect is "anti-science", but the Yankee Universe is quick to point out that Major League teams aren't asking Verducci for his opinion.

Chad Jenninngs extols the value of patience while PeteAbe tells us to enjoy the moment.

Slade Heathcott is looking for almost $900,000 over slot. Mike at RAB doesn't blame him for asking.

Joba's Mom is in trouble again.

Around the MLB:

The Jose Veras experiment didn't go so well for the Indians...

Wow, the bad news for the Mets just keeps rolling in...

This article claims that AT&T Park has the most expensive beers in the MLB. Newsflash, you have to pay more than $8.75 for a 20oz beer at the New Yankee Stadium. Want proof? (h/t HowFresh) $10 for a souvenir cup. They should have consulted me, I know these things.

Has John Henry finally taken my advice and stopped Twittering?

"Blew Jays", heh.

I'm afraid Prince Fielder might be a little nuts.

New York Football Giants:

Eli Manning is about to be the highest paid player in the NFL. Really? Did he tell them he was going to pack up his lunchbox and leave if he wasn't? Who else is going to pay him $106.7M over seven years? It didn't make sense to me back in January and it still doesn't.

P.S. If you want to keep tabs on every dropped pass and made field goal that happens at training camp, read Ralph Vacchiano's ridiculously comprehensive Blue Screen blog.

Are The Mets The New Knicks?

[Here is a guest post I did for River Ave. Blues last week, and figured the off day would be a good time to re-post it here.]

The similarities go beyond just the blue and orange. Both teams are owned by father/son duos and have been plagued by recent failures despite having payrolls near or at the top of their respective sports. Each franchise has only two championships in their history and has made the playoffs exactly one out of the past eight seasons. They both have had their front offices' dirty laundry aired in the New York tabloids in recent years.

Not that Jose Reyes ever asked a Mets intern if she was going to "get in the truck" or Omar Minaya sexually harassed a fellow member of the front office, but there is a big distinction between having an unsuccessful franchise and having the details of why your organization is a disaster printed for the world to see. At the center of these two debacles are two executives who have/had close relationships with the owners of their teams but terrible ones with the media.

While serving as President of Basketball Operations for the Knicks, Isiah Thomas spoke with the placid monotone of someone who was heavily medicated, spouting off cliches and dropping wincers such as "To me, it’s win or die. And I literally mean death. I don’t mean walk away. I mean death. That’s how I approach it". Omar, on the other hand has a penchant for mixing metaphors, inaccurate tensing ("He has lobby myself") and verbal tics, you know what I'm saying?

Initially credited with making the Mets an attractive destination and recruiting players like Pedro Martinez, Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner, Omar's track record is tainted by severely overpaying for Luis Castillo, giving Moises Alou $15M for 414 plate appearances and locking up Oliver Perez, (who is currently humming along to the tune of a 7.42 ERA) for three years and $36M. The Johan Santana trade alone puts Minaya ahead of Thomas in terms of transactions that turned out favorably for their team, but the number of playoff appearances and dollars each team has spent speak for themselves.

Back on March 12th, 2007, with Knicks holding a record of 29-34 and sitting at 8th place in the Eastern Conference, James Dolan singed Isiah Thomas to a three year extension. Nine months earlier, Dolan had issued an ultimatum, saying the Knicks would have to make "evident progress" in order to Isiah to return as coach the following year.

The team had gone 23-59 under Larry Brown the year before, so they did improve, but the timing was curious. Dolan could have waited to see how the season turned out, but instead said "the improvement needs to be recognized now and not wait". The team responded with a horrid 4-14 stretch and finished 7 games out of the playoffs. Thirteen months later, Thomas was "reassigned" and banned from having any contact with the team, effectively ending his tenure as Knicks GM and coach.

Immediately following the conclusion of the 2008 season, the second one in a row which concluded by the Mets getting nudged out of October on the last day of the season after holding a significant lead with less than three weeks to go, Jeff Wilpon extended a three year contract extension to Omar Minaya. The timing again was questionable, as the GM had a full year left on his current deal, but Wilpon said "we think he deserves another chance to keep getting us to where we want to be".

The Mets are currently in 4th place in the NL East and behind 7 other teams in contention for the Wild Card, 5.5 games back. Unfortunately for Minaya, the on-the-field performance can be largely explained away by injuries, but the power structure of the Mets organization has come under fire as of late. First with the clumsy axing of Willie Randolph last year but most recently the zany antics of Tony Bernazard and the ensuing unsuccessful attempted public sacrifice of beat writer Adam Rubin's journalistic integrity, the team has become a punching bag for the New York Media. Rubin wondered aloud how he could continue his duties as a reporter covering theMets after the incident, but one has to question whether Omar can continue running them.

Even since they hired Donnie Walsh to head their basketball operations back in April of last year, the Knicks have had an air of credibility around them, even though their play on the floor was still sub-par. A well-respected veteran of the Pacers' front office, Walsh is candid with the media and his Wikipedia page doesn't have to have a separate section for "Controversy". Could the Mets benefit from a similar move?

It's quite unlikely that the Mets leapfrog 7 teams (or three in the NL East) and sneak into the playoffs this year. Since Minaya's new contract doesn't even start until the end of this season and won't end until 2012, keeping him around would be a prudent financial move. Rob Neyer doesn't think that will play a role in the decision, though.

Has Omar passed the point of no return?

I personally don't think so and don't feel certain that his successor would necessarily bring a new direction to the franchise, other than the symbolic overture of axing Minaya. That said, public perception and fan placation is a big part of being a successful sports team in New York, and theWilpon's have to be prepared to deal with a lot of backlash if they stand by their man.

It's Linktastic!

So, I don't have anything specific in mind to write about at the moment, probably because winning breeds apathy. Unless of course you are a Red Sox fan (who doesn't read this blog), in which case it breeds douchebaggery. In any event, here it's what's becoming a daily cop out for me: A collection of links to a bunch of things which are interesting but not worth an entire post devoted to them for differing reasons. Enjoy!

-----

Mike from RAB thinks the Yanks should deal for a starter. It doesn't seem like one is necessary at the moment, but by the time the need arises, it might be too late. [Update: Joe looks at the bullpen as well]

I take no pleasure in seeing the Mets fail, but I can't say the same about this. At least God still loves them.

Joel Sherman takes the Mets to task for the lack of order within their organization. He compares it to the earlier versions of the Yankees, when there wasn't a designated power structure and almost anyone could have The Boss's ear, "It might be the GM, a scout, a friend, a cab driver". He sees the recent issues with Tony Bernazard as a manifestation of such structural issues. Don't plan on listening to Joel on 1050 ESPN Radio anytime soon, though. He got streeted yesterday (by no fault of his own).

This is terrible for Donnie Baseball. Upshot? I bet you didn't know the term "Battery By Bodily Waste" existed...

Craig from Shysterball doesn't get the Red Sox number retirement policy. I do, it goes a little something like "Well, he's gawtta be in the HoF, ten yeahs with the Sawx, but nawt if left us fwah the fackin' Yanks..."

Is Jesus untouchable? (Montero that is...)

Who was the last pitcher to throw 300 innings in a single season? The man started 38 games that year, went 24-9, and was part of a World Series winning team. The season included 13 CGs and only 4 starts shorter than 7 innings. And he was 35 years old when he did it. The answer can be found in the tags (or by clicking that link).

1.98/game to 3.25/game. Yes, it would seem that homers are easier to come by in the New Stadium.

And totally off-topic, but how awesome is this?

Here's the original, and a shot for shot comparison.

Link Lineup

Here are a couple of links to help move you towards gametime in an orderly manner:

Tim Marchman identifies that Joba Chamberlain is actually a better pitcher when he is inducing more flyballs. He wonders if the Yankees could try to teach him to pitch that way, but I don't think that would be the wisest move for a right hander pitching in the New Yankee Stadium.

Is Yogi Berra a "Black Swan" of baseball? (h/t BBTF)

You probably already knew that Tony Bernarzard was batshit insane, but this really takes the cake...

The Binghamton Mets clubhouse nearly turned into a scene out of WWE Raw recently, when VP for player development Tony Bernazard removed his shirt and challenged the Double-A players to a fight during a postgame tirade, multiples sources told the Daily News.

Cliff from Bronx Banter told you "the Serg might work".

Brett Tomko is upset by his demotion:

"I don't think I got a fair shot," he said. "I pitched great in spring training and didn't make the team. I pitched great in the minors, got called up and didn't get much of a chance. I understand other guys are pitching great. But it could have been different. I can't see the point in coming back."

Obviously, Matt was not.

Ever wonder what the differences between John Dewan's +/- system and UZR are? Get it from (one of) the horse's mouths.

The Shyster wonders about the potential ramifications of DNA testing in the Dominican are, and once you read a couple of them, it might make rethink whether or not it's such a good idea.

It's "probably unliklely that Roy Halladay will be dealt"? Shocker. Thanks for nothing, Rosensquirrel.

"A-Rod"... "Clutch"... in the SAME HEADLINE?!??1!?

More details on the epic 1926 tilt between the Hebrews and the Klan.

"Pro Surf Championship to be held in Hal Streinbrenners hair in 2010"

Subway Series Linkaround

I know some of you probably care deeply about the Subway Series. It's probably because you have annoying friends that are Mets fans who can't wait to rub it in your face when the Yankees lose. I just can't bring myself to get worked up over the intra-city rivalry. I'm not against interleague play, and I think Yanks and Mets should play every year, but trumping it up as a big rivalry is lost to me. There isn't really a whole lot of history to it. If the Dodgers or Giants were still in New York, sure, but the Mets aren't either of those teams, regardless of how much they try to be.

Since interleague play began in 1997, the Yankees lead the all-time match-up 37-29 (not including the 2000 World Series). The Yankees swept the series 6-0 in 2003, but since 2004, the Mets have the advantage 17-15. Maybe it's just this time around, since we are coming off a huge letdown against our actual rivals, but this upcoming series doesn't seem as big.

Well for those of you who do care about the Subway Series, here are some links to get you into the swing of things.

• Neil Best and David Lennon of Newsday star in a video blog talking about the rivalry this time around. They comment on the significance of the match-up and the role that they new parks are playing in it this time around.
  
  
• It's Subway Squakers' time to shine.
  
  
• River Ave. Blues has a thorough preview of the series and goes position by position through the two teams. Click through to see who comes out on top.
  
  
• There is always Mets Blog.
  
  
• Jorge Says No! comes up with some options for the two teams to shore up their bullpen.
  
  
• The 'Ropolitans have the scoop on who is going to to start in place of John Maine on Saturday.
  
  
• Amazin' Avenue sounds about as excited as we are.
  
  
• Mets Merized wonders if geographic rivalries should be cut to three games.
  
  
• There is a LoHud Mets Blog too??!?

Right On Time

Via MLBTR, The Post has quotes from Omar Minaya and Jeff Wilpon indicating that the Mets could expand their payroll:

GM Omar Minaya confirmed to The Post yesterday that he has permission from ownership to increase the payroll.

"We've been told that whatever we need to do to get to help us win, we're going to try to do it," Minaya said. "[The payroll is] not unlimited. But there is the ability to increase if we need areas that need to be addressed."

COO Jeff Wilpon also said yesterday, "Omar has the flexibility to do what he has to do to give us a winning team."

Now they are willing to take on salary? Where was all this cash when Derek Lowe and Adam Dunn were still available? Instead of signing players in the best free agent market in recent history, they are going to shed prospects to take on guys with overvalued contracts?

Orlando Hudson for $4M and give nothing up? Hell no! Part with minor league talent for the right to take on another team's terrible contract? Absolutely! Have fun with that.

Too Soon?

Of course not...


Hahahahahahahahahahaha