Lessons In Advanced Hindsight, With Mike Lupica

Good morning, Fackers. I think most rational people understand that one of the fundamental concepts of decision making is that you have to make your choice based on the information which was available at the time. Of course, Mike Lupica doesn't fall under the umbrella of "most rational people".

You surely know Lupica from his columns in the Daily News, his Matt Christopher-esque children's sports books, or as the wildly-gesturing smarmy douche on The Sports Reporters who sits on the edge of his seat partially because he feels that he's far too important to be seated in a semi-circle and partially because if he leaned back, his feet wouldn't touch the ground.

Anyway, in today's Daily News, Mike conveniently smothers Joe Girardi's decision to use only his three best starters in the World Series in a thick coating of hindsight, two days after any other course of action could have been chosen:

Joe Girardi knows the deal as well as he knows his way out to the mound. He's right about using only three starters in the postseason if the Yankees win, tonight or tomorrow night.

I love how Lupica sets up the scenario by saying "Girardi knows the deal". Yeah, he knows that if the Yankees lose, he's going to get second guessed by assholes like Lupica who were so convinced that the Yankees should throw Chad Gaudin in Philly that they... didn't write a word about it despite having a column in a newspaper dedicated to writing about sports.

He's right if Andy Pettitte does the job in Game 6 on three days' rest that A.J. Burnett didn't do Monday night. Or he's right if this thing plays all the way out and CC Sabathia carries everybody across the finish line. Girardi just better be right about three days' rest for these guys after being up three games to one.

So was Charlie Manuel right for holding Cliff Lee back to give him his normal rest even though he gave up 5 earned runs because the Phillies won Game 5? Of course! What did you want to judge the outcome based on his "performance" or "availability in a possible Game 7"? Fools.

Because if the Yankees blow this Series, if the Phillies come all the way back, then Yankee fans are going to wonder how the Yankees could spend $206 million on baseball players and not have enough left under the bed to buy a reliable fourth starter.

No, Mike, they're not. That's what they'd be wondering if the Yankees missed the playoffs. Like they did last year. When they spent $209M.

The Yankees have had a payroll over $184M since 2004 and that year none of the 4 guys who started more than 20 games for them had an ERA under 4. In 2005, their 4th starter was either Jaret Wright or Kevin Brown who both had ERAs over 6 and they needed Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon to patch together their rotation. The following year it was Cory Lidle. In 2007, it was Roger Clemens and we all remember how well that worked out in the playoffs!

You have to be a special kind of stupid to wait until the team is one win away from their first World Series in 9 years to start complaining about their lack of a #4 starter.

Oh by the way, the reason they don't have a #4 starter isn't because they "didn't have enough money left under the bed". It's because Chien Ming Wang, who had been their best pitcher over the previous three years, suddenly decided to suck. And Joba Chamberlain, who everyone wanted to go back to the bullpen (including Lupica, obviously), is back in the bullpen.

They will wonder at the same time about how much they think they could get for a copy of "The Joba Rules" on eBay about now.

How much are your books selling for on eBay, Mike? Let me check. One dollar.

There are still a lot of smart, passionate, grudge-holding Yankee fans who want to talk about all the pitching mistakes that Joe Torre made when the Red Sox started to come back on the Yankees in 2004. But when Torre came home in that American League Championship Series, the way Girardi's Yankees come home now, here were Torre's starters:

Jon Lieber, Game 6.

Kevin Brown, Game 7.

Right, so why are you complaining about the rotation this year?

Josh Beckett went on three days' rest in Game 6 of the 2003 Series, Marlins against the Yankees. Everybody screamed that Jack McKeon was making a huge mistake, that he should wait and pitch Beckett on full rest in Game 7 if it came to that. The Marlins manager went all in with Beckett and he pitched one of the most dominating close-out games in the history of the World Series.

He made McKeon right because he won.

Mike Lupica's decision making rubric: Win = Right, Lose = Wrong.

So Mike Lupica's son is dribbling down the court in a CYO game two minutes into the game and decides to fire up a short from half court. It goes in. From the stands, Mike yells "GREAT DECISION, BUDDY!"

Mike Lupica is playing in a poker tournament. Someone raises in front of him. He looks down at the 2 of hearts & the 4 of clubs and pushes all in. His opponent calls with pocket aces but the board reads 3-5-6-K-8. Mike sees that he made a straight and screams "I OUTPLAYED YOU!"

The best decisions are the ones that are most likely to succeed if the scenario is played out over and over again. And guess what. Feeding Chad Gaudin - who lefties have hit .293/.389/.433 off in his career - to the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park isn't one of those decisions.

Today In Headlines That Shouldn't Need To Be Written

Why Last Night’s Loss Doesn’t Necessarily Mean This Is 2004 All Over Again

Jon DeLessio over at The Sports Section at New York Magazine would like to talk you down from a metaphorical ledge. His hostage negotiation tactics include A) comparing 2009 A-Rod to 2004 David Ortiz, B) saying that the homefield advantage is somehow better this time although both teams went (57-24) at home, and C) pointing out that CC Sabathia would start a Game 7 should it be necessary. Guess which one of these is a valid point. If you said C, congratulations, you may be a rational person!

The problem is that the people who are standing on said ledge are not going to be talked down from it.

If you've given up on this series after one loss, you're a special kind of pathetic. That's the kind of fatalism reserved for Red Sox, Cubs and Mets fans.

Here are some reasons that this year, even if the worst case scenario comes to fruition, isn't 2004:

1. The deficit wasn't 3-0
2. These aren't the Red Sox
3. This isn't 5 years ago
4. There are 5 players out of 50 that the two playoff rosters have in common - six if you count Johnny Damon, which I don't

So no, Wallace Matthews. This wouldn't be worse than 2004, you moron.

Just as a blowout victory in Game 4 didn't predict success in last night's game, one tough loss doesn't mean the Yanks are going to drop the last two. Relax everyone, it's still match point and we've got the next two serves.

Remember when everyone was in agreement that this was going to be a great series? Well, in a great series, there are going to be triumphs and tragedies. Glorious victories and heartbreaking losses. Let's try not to lose our minds so badly in the latter that we can't enjoy the former.

It's Friday night. Blow off some steam. I might be witnessing some amateur pugilism. Some of you are probably planning to get extremely drunk. Others may be doing slightly more respectable activities like going out to dinner and seeing a movie. Do your respective things and let's meet back here sometime tomorrow afternoon.

ALCS Game 1: Who Knows?

Here we are, folks. It's the American League Championship Series; Phase Two of a possible three in the quest for ultimate baseball glory. It's been a long 5 years since the Yanks have been in those position.

There are only 6 Yankees (Jeter, A-Rod, Mo, Posada, Cano, Matsui) that were on the roster in 2004 or the last time the Yankees faced the Angels in 2005. The Angels are returning only 4 players from 2005. So while the narrative that the Angels own the Yanks in the postseason is going to be thrown out there, it's not all that relevant any more. The Red Sox supposedly had the Angels' number going into the ALDS and they are watching this one from their respective couches. (I love pointing that out...)

As Matt delved into this morning, the two teams split the season series and are quite evenly matched. The Yanks have a slight advantage when you look at the accumulation of their regular season stats, but much of that goes out the window at this point. The rosters are optimized for a short series and there's no guarantee that a 52/48 or even 55/45 edge is going to show up in a best of 7 series. The miserable weather in the Bronx to start the series could further obscure any advantages one way or another.

John Lackey gets the start for the Angels tonight, off a dominant outing against the Red Sox in the ALDS. The Angels' Ace shut down the Sox over 7 1/3 IP, holding them to 4 hits, one walk and no runs. He was also sharp in his one outing against the Yankees this year, holding them to two runs over 7 innings out in Anaheim and picking up the win in the process.

The Angels trot out a pretty formidable line up as well, one that ranked second in the AL behind the Yankees in runs scored. That's pretty impressive when you consider that they were only 3rd in OBP and 4th in slugging percentage (Yanks were first in both). Their oft-discussed running game has surely filled in some of those gaps. The always-pesky Chone Figgins will be leading off and Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Vlad Guerrero make up the heart of their order. Kendry Morales has put up Mark Teixeira-style numbers this year but he's only hitting 6th.

Of course, CC Sabathia will be ascending to the rubber for the Yankees and trying to wade though that line up tonight. He wasn't in his start against the Twins (which was 9 freaking days ago), but he did strike out 8 and walk none in 6 2/3 innings. He gave up 8 hits and 2 runs (one earned) and needed 113 pitches to do it, but showed that he was capable of finding his command under pressure.

He didn't fare well in either of his starts against the Angels during the regular season this year. In 13 1/3 innings of work, he gave up 9 ER, 17 hits, took the loss in both games but did strike out 11 while walking only 4. Decent peripheral numbers, but that's not much to hang your hat on. We're only interested in the bottom line from here on out.

The Yanks offense, outside of A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and a couple timely hits by Mark Teixeira didn't look too hot against the Twins. Their batting line of .225/.288/.431 isn't going to get it done against the Angels, much less earn them a sweep.

Right now, we're still at the phase where nobody has a clue where this series is going to go. Hopefully this is going to be a great match up; an all-time classic. But what has happened this season, in the ALDSes, in 2005 or in 2002 isn't going to mean much after tonight. Hopefully the Yanks can pull it off, but who knows? Let's go Yanks.

They don't know,
Like I know,
Do you know?
They don't know,
I don't know.

Happy 5th Anniversary, Jeter's Face & The Stands

My favorite regular season Yankee game of all time took place five years ago today. It was the day that the two things in the title met, however briefly, on the way to a thrilling extra innings victory.

On July 1st of 2004, the universe was still aligned. The Red Sox were still a bunch of hopeless choke artists and the Yankees had just appeared in their sixth World Series in eight years. Despite trailing Boston in the season series 1-5 entering the series, the Yanks were up 5.5 games in the division. After outscoring the Sox 15-5 in the first two games of the series, that lead had swelled to 7.5. Their record was 49-26, which was the best in American League by six games.

That Thursday night, the Yankees prospects for victory didn't look so hot. Pedro Martinez was scheduled to start for the Sox while all the Yankees could counter with was Brad Halsey. Making just his third professional start managed to make it 5 1/3 innings and allowed only two runs, which came on a two run homer by Manny Ramirez. It was a dramatic improvement from his last outing in which he was destroyed for 7 runs by the Mets and chased in the fourth inning. The legendary Paul Quantrill cost Halsey a chance at a victory by giving up the tying run in the seventh inning.

Pedro wasn't perfect but he went 7 innings, allowed 3 runs and struck out 8. When he left the game, the score was tied 3-3, a position Yankees fans would have happily accepted at the outset of the evening.

Felix Heredia/Tom Gordon and Keith Foulke matched perfect 8th innings to keep the draw intact. Gordon delivered another scoreless frame in the ninth, but Foulke ran into some trouble. The Yankees loaded the bases with one out but Foulke got Ruben Sierra to strikeout swinging and Kenny Lofton grounded out to send the game into extras.

In Mariano Rivera's second inning of relief (the 11th), the Sox had runners on first and third with two outs. With Trot Nixon at the plate, Johnny Damon took second on defensive indifference. Then, on the 4th pitch of the at bat, Nixon popped one in back of third base, drifting towards the stands. Jeter, sprinting at full speed made the catch and unable to stop himself, flew head first into the stands.

Did the play decide the game? Probably not. Had Jeter not caught the ball, it would have landed in foul territory and Trot Nixon still would have had two strikes against Rivera, and regardless, the Yanks would have had a chance to respond in the bottom half. It most certainly defined the game, however.

I'm not sure if most Yankee fans would remember that Boston actually took the lead in the 13th on another homer by Manny and it took back-to-back-to-back two out hits by Ruben Sierra, Miguel Cairo and John Flaherty to vault the Yankees to victory. The lasting image was not of Flaherty rounding first base with his arms in the air, but of Jeter emerging from the stands and being tended to by Gene Monahan, his face bloodied and bruised.

It was a concrete representation of the mythical qualities and intangibles of Jeter, that can typically be dismissed as bullshit, all rolled into one photograph. It was part hustle, part toughness and part all-out effort.

Home from college for the summer, I watched that game at my friend John's house, over a soundtrack of powerful thunderstorms. We had plans to go out, but couldn't pull ourselves away from the extra inning drama. I'm glad we didn't.