Game 79 Win Expectancy Chart

[Data via]

Game 77 Recap

Game 70 Recap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

You know it's bad when the Yankees have such a slim chance of winning, so early in the game that I have to chop down the font for their name in the chart to 14 point just to fit it in.

It was already late and I was already tired, so when A.J. Burnett gave up three home runs in the first fucking inning after he retired the first two batters he faced and sank the Yanks into a 5-0 hole, I took the out I was given and just went to bed. I'm glad I did, because aside from Nick Swisher's triple in the third and a few more garbage time runs, the Yankees hardly got to Rodrigo "I give up a shitload of home runs and am not a very good pitcher" Lopez.

As I sarcastically implied in the chart above, let's hear it for A.J. Burnett folks! He gave up seven runs in four innings, all of which came with two outs. That was his fourth straight loss and he adds Lopez to the list of Brett Cecil, Jake Arietta (making his rookie debut) and Jamie Moyer (doing whatever the opposite of that would be) to the list of pitchers who have beaten him over the stretch of death.

The offense hasn't provided a whole lot of support for Burnett as he's been struggling, but over these last four games, he's 21 runs in 20 innings, so he's setting the bar pretty damn high for them. Add those three longballs he gave up last night to the tally and that's nine of them over this dismal span - very nearly one every other inning. Yes, the Diamondbacks hit a lot of home runs, especially at home, but Burnett hasn't seemed to be able to keep the ball in the park against anyone lately.

This location chart from Brooks Baseball pretty much sums the way he's been pitching over his past few outings. Lots of stuff way off the plate that no one aside from maybe Vlad Guerrero is ever going to offer at, lots of it right down the middle and not much around the edges of the zone. That's pretty much exactly what you don't want to do as a pitcher.

I'm not sure how you'd find this out, but I'm guessing last night was one of the lowest rated games of the year, if not the very lowest. It was a Monday night tilt that started at 10PM and the game was all but over by 10:30. It takes a dedicated fan (who didn't go to three Phish shows over the weekend) and/or someone who lives west of the Mississippi to hang in there until the bitter end last night.

Hey, at least tonight's game starts a half hour earlier - at 9:40 - and Burnett isn't pitching! Andy Pettitte will be taking on Dan Haren.

Game 66 Recap

[WE data via FanGraphs]

When the seventh inning began, the game was still in reach for the Yankees with the score sitting at 3-1. Andy Pettitte was facing Carlos Ruiz - who hadn't had a hit since last year's World Series, I believe - and gave up a double to start the inning. Wilson Valdez bunted Chooch over to third and Pettitte walked Shane Victorino (already 2-3 with a homer and another hard hit ball on the night) to get to Chase Utley. Andy proceeded to walk him as well to load the bases.

The game looked to be spiraling out of control for Pettitte and the Yanks but Placido Polanco hit a weak grounder to first that, unlike the one in fourth inning on Tuesday night, Mark Teixeira threw home to get the force. Ryan Howard then came to the plate and after starting him out with a ball, Pettitte got him to foul off a curve, then a change before striking him out swinging on a cutter down and in.

Pettitte and Cervelli both let out fistpumps after they wriggled out of the jam and for a moment it felt like the Yankees were about to come back. The offense, aside from Robinson Cano, had been largely dormant to that point, but the optimist in my thought they could pull together a rally and salvage a series victory.

Brett Gardner led off the bottom of the seventh and took four pitches, two of them balls and two of them strikes. He then fouled back three straight before ripping a line drive almost directly at Ryan Howard. Francisco Cervelli then worked another excellent at bat, running the count full before pulling a rocket down the left field line that only missed the foul pole by a couple of feet. He ultimately hit a sharp grounder to third that Placido Polanco snared and threw to first for the out. And it was all downhill from there. Kendrick fell behind Ramiro Pena 3-0 but got him to ground out to end the inning.

Both teams went down 1-2-3 in the eighth and Joba Chamberlain took the hill to start the ninth. He gave up a double, and single and a walk and was pulled from the game before he could record an out. Damaso Marte was next and allowed two walks and two sac flies but was removed despite left hander Raul Ibanez due up and the Yanks already down five runs. Chan Ho Park was summoned but only fanned the flames, allowing an RBI double to Ibanez. The Yanks only got out of the inning because Ibanez may or may not have been hit by a ball off the bat of Ben Francisco in the process of advancing to third.

All told, the Phils plated four runs in the ninth, and what was an insurmountable deficit heading into the frame was now essentially impossible to overcome. The Yanks went down in order anyway to complete the loss and give the Phillies the series victory.

After winning the first game of this set, the Yanks' offense in particular spit the bit in the final two. They managed only seven baserunners last night and six tonight, for a grand total of four runs - half of them driven in by Cano. That's just not enough support to give your pitching staff.

The second installment of the Subway Series starts tomorrow night and the Yanks welcome the Mets to the Bronx this time and Javy Vazquez squares off against Hisanori Takahashi.

Game 42 Win Expectancy Chart

Game 18 Recap

1. Scott Kazmir started off the second inning by throwing a fastball high and inside to Robinson Cano. It looked like it might have gotten away from him but Kazmir then plunked Cano square in the backside with an 89mph "heater" and walked right towards home plate after the pitch and it didn't look like he was delivering an apology. Jorge Posada made him pay for his aggression as he took the first pitch from Kazmir - a belt-high fastball right down the pike - into the forest of arborvitaes in centerfield to put the Yankees up 2-0.

Marcus Thames followed that with a double to left center. With Curtis Granderson at the plate, Francisco Cervelli on deck and still no one out, Joe Girardi called for a sacrifice bunt. Curtis laid down a very nice one up the first base line that Kazmir scooped to first and beat him out by a split second. Fransisco Cervelli drew a walk and brought up Derek Jeter who grounded into what was very nearly a double play but ended up as an RBI force out to extend the Yanks lead to 3-0.

2. Javier Vazquez struck out the side in the third inning but in between the second and third K's, he allowed bomb to his noted foe Bobby Abreu. Javy has now allowed 10 home runs to Abreu, four more than he's allowed to any other player.

3. The bottom of the fourth brought more offense for the Angels. Vazquez allowed a single to Kendry Morales and caught a piece of Juan Rivera's elbow guard to put runners on first and second with one out. Howie Kendrick poked a single through the left side, scoring Morales and cutting the Yanks lead to 3-2.

Next up, Brandon Wood hit a sharp line drive to left field that Marcus Thames got a terrible read on and allowed to drop. Two runs scored in the process and Wood was awarded a highly questionable double (it should been at worst a single given where it was hit). Macier Izturus then grounded out to second, driving in another run and giving the Angels a 5-3 lead. With Bobby Abreu due up, Girardi called for Boone Logan and Vazquez was done for the day. Abreu lined out sharply to Jeter to end the inning.

4. Robinson Cano got his own revenge for Kazmir's HBP by smashing a 1-1 slider for a home run deep to right field, bringing the score to 5-4.

5. Alfredo Aceves replaced Boone Logan with two outs in the fifth inning and came out to begin the 7th. After getting Izturus to line out to second, Girardi went to the bullpen for Damaso Marte to face Babe Ruth Bobby Abreu. Marte promptly walked Abreu and hit Torii Hunter with a pitch, bringing up Kendry Morales. For whatever reason, Marte and Cervelli begun the process of intentionally walking Morales despite the fact that right hander Juan Rivera was on deck. After some confusion and a mound visit by Cervelli, they resumed the at bat with Frankie squatting behind the plate, having given Morales a free ball for no good reason.

Also for no good reason, when the count was 1-0, Torii Hunter took off for third with two outs and would have ended with inning if Cervelli had made a better throw. Instead, he slid in under the tag and the at bat continued. That pitch was a ball and Marte threw another fastball low and outside to make the count 3-0. The YES cameras showed the Yankee dugout and Tony Pena and Girardi were signaling to Cervelli that Morales is prone to swing on 3-0, instructing him to convey the message to the pitcher. Despite the warning, Marte spotted a fastball down and away but Morales yanked it over the left field wall for a three run homer.

IFs, ANDs, & BUTs

• The decision to bunt in the second inning worked out fine, but you've gotta wonder what Girardi was thinking there. Granted, Granderson is not a great hitter against lefties, but having him bunt to get to Cervelli? I know he's a "hot" hitter, but is passing the buck to him to drive in that run really worth giving up an out for?
  
  
• Abreu has owned Vazquez throughout their careers but it's been even worse this year as Bobby is 4-5 off of Javy this year with a homer and a double.
  
  
• This is the second time Thames has screwed over Vazquez with his shitty defense. In his first start against the Rays, he let a double by Jason Bartlett fall in for what was probably the biggest hit of the game. Again, the "double" by Wood was a huge swing in momentum as it took the Angels from one down to one ahead.
  
  
• To be fair, Vazquez was his own worst enemy today and couldn't seem to get it right no matter what he did. When he got ahead in the count, he struggled to put hitters away and part of his undoing in the 4th inning was the fact that he was pitching from behind. He walked three, and aside from the third inning, didn't strike out anyone.
  
  
• The 8th inning was a complete clusterfuck. The decision to yank Aceves was questionable at best considering the right handed Hunter was behind Abreu and there was only one out so Marte was going to have face him anyway. The choice was between a right hander facing a batter from each side or a lefty doing the same and considering that Aceves had already got 5 outs without giving up a baserunner, it probably made more sense to stick with him.
  
  
• Maybe the false start on the intentional walk was the result of miscommunication but it's still absolutely inexcusable. Give a batter a free ball in a dangerous situation when the game is slipping away and you deserve what comes of the at bat.
  
  
• Probably because Marte made Girardi's decision look bad, he left him in to face Juan Rivera after the home run to Morales. David Robertson had already warmed up in the bullpen and was ready to go, but all of a sudden Girardi doesn't want to make a mid-inning pitching change?
  

This loss was pretty tough to stomach and there will be no shortage of negative pieces about Vazquez and the 8th inning tomorrow, especially because the Yankees aren't playing until Tuesday night in Baltimore. Hang in there. The Yanks still went 3-3 on this swing and the Red Sox lost in the 10th inning at home.

Soxenfreude: Closing The Door On 2009

There are plenty of Yankee fans out there who wanted to face the Red Sox in the ALCS this year and heading into the playoffs, it looked like there was a pretty good chance they would get their wish. It was a season that had the earmarks of a possible rematch with a season series that was constantly lopsided in one direction or the other but ultimately even. It was the first time since 2007 that both teams had made the postseason. The Yanks figured to take care of the Twins and the Sox looked to be a decent bet to knock off the Angels. And it just seemed like it was due to happen. 2004 was a long time ago, you know?

I'm not one of those fans who wanted to see the Sox. Sure, there would have been a massive dose of satisfaction resulting from an ALCS victory over them, but there would have been the same amount of agony on the line stemming from a loss. Plenty of bragging rights inherently tied to them not making it out of the first round, also. I'll take the sure thing, thanks.

Even when the Angels took a 2-0 series lead, I didn't dismiss the Sox' chances. They are simply a different team at home offensively and they'd won too many elimination games in previous years to count them out. Scott Kazmir had the most wins among active pitchers as a visiting player at Fenway but the Boston bats hung 5 runs on him by the end of the 4th inning. The Sox sat atop a 5-1 lead but since the Giants were so thoroughly destroying the Raiders over on CBS, I kept flipping back to the to TBS to check on the game and watched the Angels systematically chip away.

Juan Rivera added an RBI off of Daniel Bard in the 6th. Then Billy Wagner came in, allowed a flukey ground rule double to Bobby Abreu off of ow-ah boy Youk, walked Vlad Guerrero and after Kendry Morales moved the runners over, left men on 2nd and 3rd with two outs for Jonathan Papelbon.

Although our second least-favorite Red Sock had a lower ERA this year than last, he walked three times more batters than in 2008 leading to more baserunners and more nail-biting saves. He had lost much of his luster among Sox fans and there were whispers that the Sox were thinking of getting rid of him. Those whispers just got considerably louder.

With his first pitch of the game, Papelbon surrendered a single to Juan Rivera, cutting the Sox lead to 5-4. However, a pickoff of pinch runner Reggie Willits temporarily quelled the rally.

The Sox were able to tack on another run in the bottom of the 8th via a Mike Lowell single, but that wouldn't prove to be enough of a cushion.

Papelbon got two quick outs and with the Sox leading by two, they were microscopically close to getting back in the series. But the Angels clawed back with a single by Eric Aybar, a walk to Chone Figgins and a double by Bobby Abreu to cut the lead to 1 run. The Sox intentionally walked Torii Hunter but Vlad Guererro made them pay with a go-ahead two RBI single. Papelbon, a former hero among Red Sox Nation was booed off the mound.

The Sox went down in order in the bottom of the 9th and despite some wishful thinking by TBS's scoreboard guy, their season was over.

As my buddy Jim said afterwards, "You could hear a tear drop on Landsdowne". There was a truly disappointing lack of crowd shots after the loss, but I did manage to get this one in the bottom of the ninth.

Youk looks pretty crushed. And who's the mysterious lady???

Don't cry, Jason Bay. At least you're not a Pirate anymore.

Peace out, Papi. Don't worry, it's not your fault.

/checks series stats

//sees line of .083/.083/.083 with no RBIs

I take that back. Have a nice winter, though!

The Big Tease

[Image via]

Looking at the big picture, losing to the Rangers wasn't the worst thing for the Yanks. It kept them 1.5 games in back of the Red Sox in the Wild Card standings (1 in the loss column), while the Yanks maintained a 6 game lead in the division. If you had to pick a team to drop a game to, it would have to be the one most likely to knock the Sawx out of a postseason berth.

That said, this was an especially tough defeat to swallow. Joba Chamberlain was staked to a 4 run lead in the first inning, but gave it back and then some during the course of a couple two out, no one on rallies by the Rangers in the second and fourth innings. Once again, Joba proved incapable of being efficient with his pitch count, even with a big lead, and had to be relieved of his duties after a 5 run fourth inning which ran his total up to 96 pitches. It was a prototypical "Bad Joba" outing which is sure to raise questions about the amount of rest he was pitching on and the Yanks' plan for him going forward. Brace yourselves.

Even more heartbreaking was the fact that, despite trailing by 5 runs entering the 9th inning, the Yankees had the tying run on second base with no one out and failed to score due EXCLUSIVELY in part to a FUCKING TERRIBLE DECISION highly questionable move by Joe Girardi. I hated the move when Nick Swisher showed bunt on the first pitch but took it for a ball and wholly despised it with every fiber of my being when he popped it out to Michael Young at third base on his second attempt. I just can't fuc... Nevermind. We'll revisit this subject tomorrow.

Perhaps we should be happy that the Yanks even made this one interesting with the surge in the 9th. Or perhaps, as the Smokey Robinson and the Miracles once said, "a taste of honey is worse than none at all".