Game 53: Mean Old World

When an MRI determined that Jorge Posada had a hairline fracture back on May 19th, the Yankees' catcher wasn't buying the three to four week timetable offered by the Yankees' doctors.

"It's not going to take that long," said Posada, who wore a protective walking boot on his right foot. "They can say whatever they're going to say. I'll be here before that."

I personally rolled my eyes at this a bit, but as it turns out, Jorge was right. Here we are two weeks later and makes his triumphant return to the lineup. We don't yet know who he is replacing on the roster because the Yanks are waiting until after batting practice to make a move. [Update: It's Miranda]

At the present time, Jorge is only fit to DH since getting down in the catcher's crouch could potentially aggravate the stress fracture that put him on the DL in the first place. However, as our buddy Joe Pawlikowski pointed out over at FanGraphs the other day, Jorge is one of the few catchers in the game who is fit to occupy the role of designated hitter. He's appeared in fewer than half of the Yankees' games this year but has the same OPS+ (177) as Robinson Cano does in those 101 plate appearances.

When the Yankees signed Posada to that four year, $52M contract in November of 2007, they surely knew that he was only going to play a limited amount of games behind the plate. However, he's played sparingly in general, not just behind the dish. Jorge missed almost one-third of the 2008 season, played in just 111 games last year and has already missed a good portion of this season with three different injuries, all of which may have stemmed from the same single pitch.

Jeremy Guthrie hit Posada in the knee on April 28th, the lingering effects of which may have caused the calf strain which sidelined him for five days, which may or may not have contributed to this recent stress fracture. When you play through injuries, there could be a tendency to favor that side and put more pressure in places that the body isn't quite used to. Perhaps those hours behind the plate, putting too much weight on one side or the other could have weakened his foot to the point where the impact of a foul ball set off the fracture.

Jorge isn't an old guy in the grand scheme of things, but he certainly is up there when it comes to being a baseball player. He's downright ancient for a catcher.

As we all get older, we notice that we don't recover from the little injuries like we used to. A small tweak from a pick-up basketball game might linger for a couple of days. A run that you used to knock out without a problem now leaves you with aches and pains in places you aren't accustomed to. Hell, sometimes you might just sleep wrong and end up with a stiff back. Luckily for us, we can take a fews days off and be okay. Baseball players often try to work through minor issues and end up making things worse.

It was no secret that the Yankees were a little long in the tooth coming into this season, but I think it would be surprising to even a pessimistic observer just how many nagging injuries they've suffered. However, the world is a cruel place and they aren't getting any younger. It's just good to have Jorge back and put another solid stick in the lineup. It's not quite having Nick Johnson at DH and Posada behind the plate, but it's certainly a step in the right direction.

This is a mean old world, try and live it by yourself.
Can't get the one you love, have to use somebody else.

[Song Notes: I really wanted to use the version of this song that Eric Clapton did with Duane Allman but the embedding on YouTube is disabled by request. This one from the movie Hail Hail Rock & Roll featuring Chuck Berry, Clapton, Keith Richards, Johnnie Johnson, Chuck Leavell and Steve Jordan is plenty good, however. The original version was recorded by Little Walter in 1953.]

-Lineups-

Yankees: As we may have mentioned, Posada is back and DHing. He'll be batting sixth. Mark Teixeira is in the line up after being removed from yesterday's game with a bruised foot.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Jorge Posada DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Francisco Cervelli C
Brett Gardner LF

Phil Hughes P

Orioles:

Corey Patterson, LF
Miguel Tejada 3B
Nick Markakis RF
Ty Wigginton 1B
Luke Scott DH
Matt Wieters C
Adam Jones CF
Scott Moore 2B
Caesar Izturis SS

Dissecting The DH Signings

So far this offseason, free-swinging goat roaster Vladimir Guerrero, World Series Hero and spousal sketch artist Hideki Matsui, and injury-prone on-base messiah Nick Johnson have all been signed as DHs for elite offensive teams.

According to the Dallas News Vlad's deal is for $5M with incentives making comparable to the $5.5M deal Johnson got from the Yankees and the $6M one Matsui received from the Angels. Johnson's contract includes bonuses for every 25 plate appearances over 400 and mutual option or buyout for 2011, giving it the largest possible value of the three. But for this coming year, the values are likely to be quite similar.

While Johnson is more than 5 years younger than either Matsui or Guerrero, he carries similar risk of injury, having spent far more than his fair share of time on the DL over the course of his career. Johnson may be capable of playing first base and Matsui may want to play the outfield, but all three figure to DH almost exclusively in 2010.

Offensively, each has a unique profile. By getting on base at a .400 clip, Johnson offers something much different than either of the other two aging sluggers, but when healthy each provides similar overall value to a lineup.

The biggest difference between Matsui and Guerrero is that Matsui is coming off one of the best years of his career (not to mention the World Series MVP), while Vlad just completed one of his worst, both in terms of games played and at bat for at bat production. Johnson, meanwhile, came to the plate 574 times, the second most in his career and got on base quite often, but his slugging percentage was the lowest of the three.

However, the Yankees would gladly trade points in SLG for OBP considering he's going to be hitting in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Matsui and Guerrero are going to hit more towards the middle of the order and their higher slugging percentages will be more useful in driving in runs. In terms of a fit for the line up, it seems that Johnson and the Yankees are a perfect match.

So between Matsui and Guerrero, who figures to provide more value for their team next year?

The chart below shows Vlad's numbers since he came to Anaheim back in 2004 (darker numbers are better).

While it hasn't been an even decline across the board, it's easy to see that he's fallen a long way in every category listed above in the last six years. Conversely, Matsui's 2009 line (.274/.367/.509) was very similar to his career marks (.292/.370/.482) with the exception of his batting average being slightly lower and his slugging percentage slightly higher. While Guerrero is still (supposedly) younger than Matsui and had a higher, longer career peak, it seems as though Vlad is further into his decline phase.

Plate discipline has a way insulating a batter from the effects of aging and that is one category Matsui owns Vlad in. Vlad walked in only 4.7% of his plate appearances last year, the lowest of his career, while Matsui walked in 12.3%, sightly above his career average.

Was luck a factor? Matsui had a BABIP of .275, which was .23 lower than his career mark. Guerrero was down slightly to .314 from his mean of .322. Vlad hit more fly balls in 2009 than in previous years, particularly infield fly balls. His line drive percentage was actually up last year, but he saw a dive in his HR/FB rate (-4.6%). Matsui had the same underlying factors ( increases in FB, IFFB, LD%), but his HR/FB rate nearly doubled to 17.9%. You can chalk some of the difference up to the New Yankee Stadium, but it appears he was fortunate with his results as well.

In 2010, Matsui will be moving to a less favorable hitter's park while Vlad will be moving to a more favorable one. As Jack Moore points out over at FanGraphs today, Vlad has excellent numbers at the Ballpark in Arlington, but "the data from the last few years in Anaheim far outweighs the fact that he’s killed the Rangers at home over the last six."

If I were a GM, I would be worried about Vlad's slow downward spiral over the past couple of years. While he had a higher, more sustained peak than Matsui, he seems to be more susceptible to the aging process than Godzilla. His bat speed has already started to leave him and the results have not been good. This isn't to say that Matsui is a sure bet either with his balky knees and all, but his patient approach at the plate and solid production last year seem to make him a better value in 2010.

The Return Of Nick The Stick

Good morning, Fackers. It appears as though the Yankees are close to signing Nick Johnson to a one year, $5.5M deal. Johnson can play exactly one position, first base, and since Mark Teixeira is as much of an everyday player as there is on the team, it looks like Johnson - health permitting - will be a more or less full time designated hitter. Apparently the Yanks weren't so intent on rotating the DH slot to their aging players after all.

With a career OBP of .402 (.426 over the last three years), Johnson is a powerful offensive asset who sees lots of pitches, has excellent strike zone discipline and hits left handed pitching well (.440 OBP against LHP last year) despite being left handed himself. Sticking a guy like that in the 2 hole - in front of Teixeira and A-Rod - is going to lead to a significant increase in RBI opportunities for those two. Nick the Stick's power has declined over the past three seasons (SLG .520, .431, .402), but it would be reasonable to assume that Yankee Stadium would help in that capacity.

The most obvious knock on Johnson is that he's injury prone, suffering ailments ranging from stress fractures in his hand to a fractured cheek bone to a broken femur to back problems to torn ligaments in his wrist. As a result, he has appeared in an average of only 93 games over the past 8 years (including the 2007 season, which he missed entirely). Conventional wisdom says that stashing him away at DH would help prevent injuries, but that's far from a guarantee.

It would have been nice to bring Johnny Damon back but that seems very unlikely if the deal for Johnson goes through. He was asking the Yankees for twice as much money as Johnson over a contract three times as long. Sure, the fact that Damon is able to play the outfield would have increased the flexibility of the roster, but if other players really need a day off, there isn't a good reason that Joe Girardi can't just give Johnson a rest.

As far as Hideki Matsui goes, I think Johnson is a better fit for the Yankees offense. Granted, they both provide next to nothing defensively, but at the plate, they are very similar. Johnson has a career wOBA of .371 and was at .373 last year. Those numbers for Matsui are .367 and .378, respectively. However, Matsui's numbers are predicated on power (which is volatile) while Johnson relies on the more stable on OBP.

I'd rather have someone with a gaudy OBP who A-Rod and Teix will continually have the opportunity to drive in than another, lesser power hitter behind them. Both Matsui and Johnson are injury prone, but the former suffers from chronic knee injuries that are only getting worse while Johnson seems to have been afflicted with more random and flukey ailments.

For what it's worth, Johnson was $1M cheaper than Matsui and it might have been more. As Brian Cashman noted in reference to Bobby Abreu, a player is less likely to take a pay cut from their former employer than from another team.

I don't want to hear about the money that Matsui makes for the organization over in Japan, because that's the team's problem, not the fans'. Who cares how popular the Yankees on the opposite side of the world? We don't benefit from the money they make over there. The fact that Matsui has performed well in the postseason is great, but there's no guarantee that he'll repeat that performance next time around.

Overall, I like this move for the Yankees. It carries limited risk and if Johnson can grind out his usual production for 500 or so plate appearances, he will be a tremendous asset to the line up.

Pondering Left Field And The DH

Good morning Fackers. Friday morning. Finally. Good Lord, a five day work week after a three day work week and four day weekend is a special kind of torture. I think I'd rather be water boarded. And still there's eight hours to go until that sweet, glorious weekend.

Speaking of interminable waits, today is the last weekday prior to the Winter Meetings. Maybe, just maybe, that'll get things moving and we'll get some actual player movement. Then again, the non-tender deadline for arbitration eligible players isn't until next Saturday, so the free agent market may not materialize until clubs know the full spectrum of who will be available.

Either way, the Yankees' biggest needs remain the ones we identified immediately after the World Series: filling the left field and designated hitter jobs for next year. As I stated then, I think the Yankees' best options for 2010 are to have both Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui return on one year deals. To that end, here are a couple things I came across yesterday that speak to that (again, more confirmation bias on my part).

First up, we have Jay Jaffe at Futility Infielder examining the Yankees' decision not to offer arbitration to Johnny Damon. Jaffe points out that based on Nate Silver's calculations from four years ago, the value of the potential compensation picks forgone by not offering arbitration to Damon is somewhere in the neighborhood of $12M.

I've already stated that I thought it was a worthwhile risk to offer arbitration to Damon, but this drives the point home even more. It was no sure bet that Damon, as a Boras client seeking a multiyear deal, even would accept arbitration. If he refused, the club picks up the equivalent of $12M as compensation. If he accepted, the club keeps him for a year, which is probably all they really want to commit to him, at a price tag of about $15M - about $5M more than market value and exactly what Fangraphs pegs his worth, on average, over the last two years.

Yes, we're only talking about draft picks here, which don't always pan out and may be overvalued, as questioned by the blog-formerly-known-as-The-Yankee-Universe yesterday. But as Fangraphs pointed out last week, there are several factors to consider when pondering an arbitration offer. And all things considered, it appears the Yankees were unwilling to risk a $5M investment for a potential $12M return. Then again, the Yankees had the free agent market figured perfectly last year, so what do I know?

Next up, we have The Bronx View pondering if the DH spot is undervalued. And they raise very valid questions. The popular narrative is that the Yankees need to "free up" the DH spot so that Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter can get some time off there. There's two problems with that. First every time one of those three players is the DH an inferior offensive player takes their position in the field for the day. Second, The Bronx View estimates those three players might account for 79 games at the DH spot next year; who is the designated hitter for the remaining 83 games?

I'm all for resting the aging veterans from time to time, whether it be with a full day off or with a day at DH. But that's going to cover half the season's games at most. The Yankees cannot afford to turn the DH spot over to an offensively inferior player for the other half of the games, particularly if they don't replace Damon's offense in left field.

I'm sure the options are being discussed at the Yankees' organizational meetings in Tampa. Hopefully, with the Winter Meetings starting Monday, we're not too far off from getting answers to these questions.

Replacing A World Series MVP [Part II]

Yesterday, Matt noted that for the third time since 1996, the Yankees will have to evaluate whether or not to retain a World Series MVP who is heading into free agency. In 1996, they opted to let John Wetteland walk in favor of an up-and-coming closer named Mariano Rivera. However, they decided to keep Scott Brosius after their legendary 1998 campaign instead of turning to Mike Lowell, who had just posted two excellent minor league seasons, the majority of which came at AAA.

Interestingly, 11 years later, Mike Lowell found himself playing the role of Brosius for the 2007 Red Sox with frightening accuracy. Lowell had a standout year at the plate that was driven by a batting average well above his career mark, played excellent defense at 3rd while putting up an OPS+ in the 120's, made the All-Star team, and drove in exactly 15 runs in the postseason en route to a team championship and a World Series MVP.

Membahs of Rex Sawx Nation were all, "Aw, you've gotta resign Mikey Lowell. Dood is fackin' moooooney!" And, yes, some people (presumably a group of 7th graders) even started a petition, which included this gem:

These statistics show that Mike Lowell has elevated his game since his coming to Boston. In the perspective of Red Sox Nation, he has been the team MVP the entire 2007 season. He delivered for the team when the team needed something big to happen. Mike Lowell has been "a clutch player" this entire season.

However, this past post-season, he has taken things to another level.

[cites 2007 postseason stats]

So how did Mike Lowell's incredible postseason carry over into the 3 year, $36M contract he signed with the Sox? What of his "Bostonian Game Elevation" and "Clutch Player-ing"?

Since the beginning of the 2008 season, Lowell has hit only slightly above league average for a third baseman, played no more than 110 games in either season at 3rd base, underwent hip surgery, watched his defensive skills erode and oh by the way, kind of sucked in the playoffs.

So what of Hideki Matsui, who finds himself in a similar situation this year? Matsui won't be looking for a deal anywhere near as long, and didn't even play defense this year, but both are older players coming off surprisingly strong offensive seasons, punctuated by productive postseasons and, of course, the WS MVPs.

Yesterday, Brian Cashman came right out and said that he wasn't going to be influenced by what Matsui (or Johnny Damon) did in the playoffs when it comes to deciding whether or not to hold onto them this offseason:

We’re thankful for the guys who did what they did, and if you had a great postseason, terrific.

What they are when they went into October, that’s what they still are, regardless of how good or how poor they played in the postseason.

I know Matt advocated bringing Hideki Matsui back yesterday (not because of his postseason, obviously), but I'm on the other side of this debate. There are certainly going to be offensive losses involved with giving Posada, A-Rod, Jeter and Damon days off by DH'ing them, but there will also be defensive upgrades. I believe those players are going to need the days off and having to sit Matsui by no fault of his own will make it more difficult for Joe Girardi to give guys adequate rest, regardless of how professional Matsui is about it. And if he's on he bench in 1/3 or 1/2 of the games, how effective will Matsui be when he finally gets to the plate?

Matsui's knees have become a nagging problem and he needed to have them drained multiple times throughout the season. They have already turned him into a full-time DH so I think it's fair to wonder how long it will be before they total kill his baserunning skills and begin to sap his offensive power as well.

He was a great hitter and a consummate professional in his time with the Yankees, but I think it's time to say "sayonara" to Godzilla and send him off on the highest possible note. Thanks for the memories, Hideki.

Damon Stayin'?

To be honest, I hated the fact that the Yankees signed Johnny Damon when it first happened. It didn't have much to do with the fact that he was 32 years old and was already declining pretty steeply as a defensive center fielder. It wasn't just that the Yanks passed on Carlos Beltran the year before, who, with respect to the five tools, was better than Damon in every way. I couldn't wrap my head around being forced to root for a play that I had spent so much time deeply despising.

There was his impossibly weak throwing arm that make me wonder if he was actually right handed but never figured it out. It was so easy to hate his faux-Jesusy look, the "Idiots" and "Cowboy Up" bullshit and the goofy speech impediment he used to talk about it all. Above all, the grand slam he hit off Javier Vasquez in the 2004 ALCS was far too painful for me to acknowledge the possibility of ever actively rooting for him at the time.

I certainly never thought I would be in favor of the Yankees offering him another contract at the end of this year. However, nearly four years later, Damon has been one of the most durable players on the Yankees and has continued to pull his weight offensively, even after being shifted to left field.

Tyler Kepner talked to Damon yesterday and Johnny had this to say about his impending free agency:

I don’t know where else I would want to go to. Obviously, that’s not the right thing to say when you’re about ready to approach free agency, but I’m very happy with playing in New York, and my family’s happy I play for New York. There’s no bigger place to go. If you play well here, you’re going to get paid. New York has the resources.

It's important to note that Scott Boras is still his agent and if Damon is anything like the other capitalist robots manufactured by the Boras Corporation, you can take that quote with a grain of salt. In fact, if Damon is anything like the 2005 version of himself, we probably shouldn't put too much stock in his stated intentions, either (h/t NoMaas):

There's no way I can go play for the Yankees, but I know they are going to come after me hard. It's definitely not the most important thing to go out there for the top dollar, which the Yankees are going to offer me. It's not what I need.

As with any contractual negotiation, I'd be in favor of bringing back Damon at the right price. UZR doesn't think too highly of his defense this year, but I'm not ready to relegate Damon solely to DH status. Just last year his UZR/150 was 11.6 and this year it's -9.6. Has he really fallen of that sharply? Even with his below average defensive, Johnny has been so good with the bat that he projects to be worth $14.8M over the course of the season, comfortably more than the $13M he's making.

Damon's already knocked 22 homers this year, just two off his career high. True, 15 of those have come at home and every one has been to right field, but that's not an inherently bad thing. If the Yanks sign him again next year he'll be playing half of his games in the same park.

With Hideki Matsui likely moving on after this season, the Yanks won't have someone plugging up the DH slot who can't play another position. The Yanks have stated that they want to keep that position open to be able to rest other position players, which keeps the line up flexible, but Damon is still a somewhat competent left fielder, even if he doesn't rebound next year. His bat more than makes up for his defensive short-comings.

From his comments in Kepner's story, it's safe to say that Damon will be looking for at least 2 years. Should the Yanks bring him back for 2 years/$20M? Would that be enough? Who is going to give him more than that? Given the way the New Stadium plays, it seems that he would be worth more to the Yanks than anyone else. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Cash & Co. cut ties with Damon, but if they keep him around, I wouldn't be surprised to see him lift another twenty-something homers over the short porch in right field next year, either.

Matsui Has Knee Drained

When Hideki Matsui was out of the line up on Saturday, I assumed he was just being given a night off against a lefty even though he's destroying southpaws this year. When he was out of the line up again on Sunday, I figured something was up - and there was. Just before game time it cmae out that Matsui was day-to-day with fluid on his left knee.

After the game came the news that Matsui had his knee drained during the game, and that it will keep him out of the line up tonight as well. Matsui had a similar procedure performed on the same knee in mid-April, but this is the first attention it's required since then. It's the same knee that was operated on last September. He had surgery on his right knee in 2007.

Matsui's knees have limited him to DH duty for the entirety of this season. He looks like an old man as he hobbles around the bases. Yet he's been a very valuable bat all year, hitting .266/.361/.509 (126 OPS+). The Yankee line up is much stronger with him than without him. Matsui claims that he isn't concerned about this latest situation given his recovery from the draining in April. I hope he's right; the Yanks will need him down the stretch.

This Year Most Likely The Swan Song For Matsui

From Joel Sherman's "3 Up, 3 Down" blog post this morning (emphasis mine):

In Sunday's Post, I wrote a column about the death of the traditional DH; the single-dimensional type who need not even have a fielding mitt ordered for him. During the course of reporting on the column, I was told by several Yankee executives that there is almost zero chance that Hideki Matsui will be re-signed after the season, even if he were to finish with a strong season and despite the strong presence he affords them in Japan.

It shouldn't come as much of a shock, but that was the first time I've heard it from people within the organization, in such definite terms. 

Matsui is unable to play the field, stay healthy or really hit at the level that should be expected from a DH. He's hit 7 HRs and has a 116 OPS+, but the facts are he can't even be trusted to play a corner outfield position and is going to be 36 next season. If the Yanks are looking to get younger, like they have said in the past, and more versatile like others have suggested, Matsui just isn't the right fit.  

Countdown To Opening Day: #45

For much of the 90's the number 45 was penciled into the Yankees' DH slot.

-----

Danilo Tartabull Mora originally came up as shortstop with the Royals. He only played 24 games in The Bigs at SS, and was quickly transitioned to a RF/DH. He had solid numbers with the Royals but nothing too impressive, especially for a corner OF/DH. Coming off a the best season of his career in 1991 (171OPS+), Tartabull became one of the five highest paid players in baseball when he signed a five year $25.5M deal with the Yankees.

He put up decent numbers when he was healthy, but Danny was plagued by injuries during his tenure, averaging only 122 games during the three full seasons he spent the Bronx before being traded to Oakland in 1995. He suffered from sprained wrists, pulled hamstrings, back spasms and bruised kidneys. Sound similar to another free agent acquisition to bear the #45? The Curse of Danny Tartabull(c) You heard it here first.

After he was traded to the A's for Ruben Sierra, Tartabull lashed out a George Steinbrenner for the comments The Boss has been making all season about him. Danny said:

If s a zoo there. No, I take that back; it's a joke. The sad part is that the only reason for that is the owner. He wants to be the center of attention so bad he just destroys that team. If s so hard for those guys to win because of that man. To win the division, you have to be twice as good as anyone else just to overcome all of the crap that goes on. The guys won't say it on the record, but they're just miserable there.

Some of that was probably warranted, but here's the kicker:

That team's going to be a disaster next year. You'll see. No one's going to want to play there.

See, you just change "disaster" to "dynasty" and "No one" to "Everyone" and that sentence makes perfect sense!

In one of the most fitting ends to a career possible, he retired seven games into the 1997 season after fouling a ball of his toe.



The Yanks acquired the ironically-named Cecil Fielder in 1996 by trading Ruben Sierra and Matt Drews to the Tigers. Fielder hit 13 HRs in 53 games to round out the regular season. On the way to the World Series, Big C hit .307 with 3HRs and 10RBIs. A portly chap, Fielder was almost exclusively a DH, appearing in only 17 games in the field in his two years with the Yankees, all at first base. Bill James once called Cecil, "a fat guy that hit a few home runs for a while."

In 1990 & 91, his first two full seasons as a pro, Fielder hit 51 then 44 HRs and finished second in the MVP voting to Rickey Henderson then Cal Ripken. His 1990 season was the first 50+HR in the American League since Mantle and Maris went at it in 1961. Big Daddy finished his career with 319 round-trippers and a line of .255/.345/.482.



Fielder left after the 1997 season and the Yankees acquired Charles Theodore "Chili" Davis to try and fill his shoes. Chili got his nickname from a bad haircut he cut when he was 12, growing up in Kingston, Jamaica. He injured his ankle in Spring Training in '98 and after playing in the first two games of the season, appeared in only 33 more coming down the stretch. He saw 27 ABs that postseason and drove in 7 runs.

He exclusively DH'ed during his time with the Yanks and wasn't particularly strong offensively, but is remembered fondly by most Yankee fans because his two years in the Bronx coincided with two World Series victories. When he retired, he had the third highest career HR total (350) as a switch hitter, behind only Mickey Mantle and Eddie Murray.