Shorter Yanks vs. Sox Games This Year?

The most common complaint about Yankees vs. Red Sox games - especially from fans of other teams - is that they take too long to complete. Those folks have a point. The average MLB game lasted 2 hours and 52 minutes in 2009 while Yankees games clocked in at 3:08 and Red Sox contests at 3:04. When the teams got together, it took them an average of 3:20 to declare a winner.

Major League Baseball, and in particular Bob Watson who is responsible for standards and on-field operations, has tried to tighten the screws on the teams in an effort to make the games shorter. Watson recently told Business Week, “We’ve created a monster. Will we ever get this under control? I don’t know”. (Of course, he isn't looking to cut back on the amount of time sold to advertisers which necessitates that commercial breaks last about two minutes and thirty seconds each, but that's a different issue for another day).

Might the Yankees and Red Sox have done Watson a favor with some of their offseason moves? Is it possible that because the way the teams are constructed this year, the games might naturally be a little shorter?

The reasoning for the games being shorter this year goes something like this: Both teams improved their starting pitching and defense. Better starting pitchers allow fewer baserunners which lead to fewer plate appearances. Solid starters also go deeper into games, meaning that there should be fewer pitching changes, each of which - if executed mid-inning - takes several minutes (unless it's Jonathan Papelbon, in which case it takes several hours). Improved defenses also turn more balls in play into outs, thereby eliminating at bats and conserving starter's pitch counts.

Of course, there are two sides to the equation. As the article Business Week points out, the Yankees and Red Sox saw the most pitches in baseball last year, largely as a function of the fact that they scored the first and third most runs in the game, respectively. The Yankees also added Nick Johnson who saw 4.36 pitches per plate appearance last year, third most in the MLB.

What the article didn't mention was the fact that last year's slate of Yanks/Sox games included a 5 and a half hour, 15 inning marathon and 9 inning games with final scores of 20-11, 16-11, 14-1 and 13-6. The Yanks scored 99 runs in those 18 games and the Sox plated 101, so it's not just mound visits, crotch adjustments and "talking to the ball" as Watson claims, that are taking up everyone's time.

Additionally, these games often air on national networks and the additional commercials on ESPN and FOX slow them down. God Bless America probably adds a couple of minutes to each game played at Yankee Stadium as well.

Sunday night's 3:46 affair was not the best start for my half-baked theory, but I'm willing to bet that there will be some regression towards the mean in terms of the duration of the games. I'm not sure if they will come all the way down to the Yanks' average mark of 3:08 but it's a good bet that the average length will be lower than 3:20 by the time all 18 games are in the books.

Reconsidering Outfield Alignment

In an unsurprising move, Curtis Granderson was officially named the Yankees' center fielder yesterday. Granderson made but one appearance in left field this spring, so there wasn't much question about where he would play.

That wasn't the story for much of the off-season. Once it became apparent that Brett Gardner would be amongst the starting outfielders, speculation ran rampant as to whether the Yankees would be better served with Gardner or Granderson patrolling center.

Through his first two Major League seasons, Brett Gardner has posted an asburd UZR of 16.7 through nearly 800 innings in center field. Granderson is no slouch defensively, with a UZR/150 of 4.9 in CF through four plus seasons, but recent scouting reports have been critical of his jumps and routes, and his UZRs over the past two years have been -8.9 and 1.6.

Initially, I was in favor of playing Gardner in center. However, with just 86 defensive games in center to his credit, he hasn't accumulated enough playing time to inspire full confidence in his impressive numbers. Further, people far smarter than I am explained that the difference between Gardner in left and Granderson in left was virtually infinitesimal.


In light of that, and knowing that it's no sure thing that Brett Gardner spends the entirety of 2010 as a starter, it's probably best to leave Granderson in center. It should keep him more comfortable as he settles into life as a Yankee and it saves him from having to switch positions again should the club choose to add another left fielder later this year (or in 2o11 since so many can't seem to stop talking about acquiring Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford next year even though not a single pitch has been thrown this year).

Going outside the box for a second here though, is the Yankees' outfield defense best off with Gardner in left? Last month, TYU took a closer look at the defensively maligned Nick Swisher, finding that he actually grades out above average from a range point of view, but his overall UZR is hindered by his poor arm rating. Gardner meanwhile, not only covers a lot of ground, but as we examined last year, he also has a plus arm thanks to his accuracy.

With that in mind, might the Yankees be better served to play Swisher in left where his poor arm won't be as much of a detriment and Gardner in right where his arm could be a greater asset?

Probably not. Gardner's defensive is still plagued by small sample size, particularly when it comes to his arm. Range is far more important than arm when it comes to outfield defense. Left field in the new Stadium isn't as expansive as it was in past incarnations, but it's still big for a corner field. Intuitively at least, the Yankees are probably better off with Gardner in left and Swisher in right, even if the numbers might suggest otherwise right now.

2 Days Until Spring Training: Derek Jeter

At this time last year, Derek Jeter was in a vastly different spot than he is in today. During the final season at the Old Yankee Stadium, Jeter had put up his worst wOBA in a full season since he became a regular Major Leaguer in 1996. Scouts and defensive metrics alike had identified him as one of the worst defensive shortstops in the league and with his offensive production slipping dangerously close to league average, his overall value looked to be in sharp decline. Ramiro Pena was supposedly right on his heels to take over at short.

When a 34 year old player has a down year, regardless of how skilled they are, it's tough not to interpret that as a sign of an imminent decline. As the years of an athlete's career add up, it becomes increasingly unlikely that they will rebound from a sub par campaign; even a player as good as Jeter was up until that point has to see their skills erode eventually. Foretelling his impending demise was the obvious conclusion to come to, but luckily, what seems obvious isn't always right.

At a point in his career when player's defensive abilities are only supposed to deteriorate, Jeter posted his best and only significantly positive UZR rating since 2002, which is as far back as the data goes. It might have been the finest season as a fielder of his career. Partly due to an offseason conditioning program that was designed to increase his lateral range and partly because of Mick Kelleher's assistance with Jeter's positioning, the Captain enjoyed a late career defensive renaissance that is all but unheard of in baseball.

Joe Girardi's decision to bat Jeter lead-off coincided with a resurgent offensive year as well. Jeter increased his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage by 34, 44 and 57 points, respectively. He hit 18 home runs, his highest total in 5 years. Granted he hit 11 of those over the short porch in right field at the New Yankee Stadium, but we can't really hold that against him since he'll be playing the same amount of regular season games there in 2010 as he did in 2009.

If we learn any lesson from Jeter's rebound in 2009, it should be that trying to divine a player's career trajectory on a season by season basis as they age is a fool's errand. Jeter's status as a historical outlier makes predicting what the future holds even more unreliable. So just as 2008 didn't foreshadow an imminent demise, nor does 2009 promise a run at Pete Rose's record.

While it's true that few shortstops have ever maintained above average offensive production while playing shortstop in the mid-to-late 30's, it's also true that Jeter is fairly like to do so considering that he was historically elite at age 35. But at the same time, Jeter's closest comparable according to Baseball-Reference, Barry Larkin, had a bad year when he was 35, bounced back when he was 36 and was essentially washed up by age 37.

What happens this year will have tremendous implications on Jeter's impending contract negotiations as well. Tyler Kepner of the New York Times wondered if Jeter will aim for a contract that takes him through his age 42 season like the one the Yankees gave to Alex Rodriguez. Even if Jeter continues to produce at an excellent level, a six year deal seems ridiculous and unnecessary and it would be uncharacteristically petty and selfish of Jeter to make such demands.

If the Yankees are serious about having a budget going forward, they can't afford to commit huge amounts of money to Jeter over the long term, regardless of what they are paying Rodriguez. They should be more concerned with what other teams might be willing to give Jeter. Contracts signed in the past are sunk costs and although there are personalities and egos involved, the bottom line is that money spent on Jeter is money that can't be spent on talent to surround him.

Additionally, the market for aging free agents is changing and Brain Cashman seems well aware of that fact:

The industry the last two free agent markets seems to be going downward and the player's ages are going upward. It makes more sense to be patient. My attitude is if this is the place you want to be, you will make it happen. Johnny Damon professed his love for the Yankees, wanted to be here and was given every chance to be here. He's not here anymore and I don't feel that is the Yankees' fault. They have to reconcile why they are not here, not me.

The comment was aimed at Johnny Damon (and by extension, Scott Boras) but I think it tells you something about the tack he will take with Jeter. Cashman understands the free agent market as well as anyone and although the Yanks might give Jeter more than he's worth on the field, it won't be by much.

The media will surely take Jeter's side regardless of how much he wants from the Yankees but the reality is that he has the power to make the negotiations easy or make them difficult. Ask for 6 year deal and a raise in terms of annual value and it will get ugly. Take 3 years at $20M, the deal is done overnight and the Yanks have more money to use towards building a team that can win World Series, which has always been Jeter's singular focus. But let's not put the cart ahead of the horse. There will be plenty of time to watch this topic get senselessly beaten into the ground over the course of the season.

We've been incredibly lucky to watch Jeter's career unfold and we've been even luckier to watch him continue his excellent production into his mid-30's. Let's hope he goes the way of Honus Wagner or Luke Appling and plays shortstop into his 40's, but even if he doesn't, the Yanks have had their best stretch at the shortstop position in the history of the franchise and one of the very best in baseball. Although it will hurt terribly when Jeter is gone, the Yankees are essentially playing with house money at this point. With any luck, though, we'll be able to see this image a few more times before he goes.

Joel Sherman Uses Old Story To Drum Up New Drama

In Sherman's column in today's Post, he dusts off the story about Derek Jeter's belief that he was still a good defensive shortstop before he started special training to improve his range between the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Joel suggests that his "arrogance" as an athlete might lead to some contentious contract negotiations come November:

So Cashman took Jeter to dinner in Manhattan and told the Yankees captain that his side-to-side actions must improve. Jeter has an outsized athletic arrogance. He believes in himself completely, which allows him to deftly block out criticism and negativity. This trait enables him to thrive in the cauldron, but also prevents him from seeing personal shortcomings the way others perceive them. Still, to his credit, he agreed to try a new way.

With the Yankees paying the bills, Jeter enlisted Jason Riley, the director of performance at the Athletes Compound in Tampa. Riley formulated a plan to increase Jeter’s first-step quickness, particularly in fielding grounders to his left. Power lifting was diminished, agility — especially in the hips — was emphasized , weight was lost. The results came slowly at first in 2008 and in a wave last year when Jeter had one of his finest defensive seasons.

“The player Derek is, he took to it and said, ‘Watch, I will prove you wrong,’ ” Cashman said.

This story is instructive in anticipating how Jeter’s contract talks will play out when his 10-year, $189 million contract concludes after this season. First, like the Cashman-Jeter meeting remaining untold publicly until now, Jeter will demand that his negotiations are done privately. Second, the good news for the Yanks is that Jeter is a competent shortstop again; the bad news is he is a competent shortstop again.

If this story sounds familiar, that's because Ian O'Connor wrote about everything but the dinner meeting the day after the 2009 regular season ended. Does this dinner meeting tell us anything, as Sherman is trying to infer? How else was Cashman going to have this conversation with him? At the top of his lungs in the locker room? Whether it was in his office or at a restaurant, it was going to be a private and delicate discussion.

So this dinner anecdote leads Sherman to the following revelation: Derek Jeter would like to negotiate his contract in private. You know, unlike all the other baseball players who sit down and exchange numbers with their teams on live television.

Jeter's contract negotiations will be interesting and like Sherman says, made more difficult by the the shortstop's defensive renaissance. Both sides have a lot of leverage given that Jeter needs the Yankees just as much, if not more than they need him. But we already knew that Jeter's ego was going to make this difficult. I think the years of him refusing to acknowledge his deficiencies as a shortstop or change his position were a lot more informative than one dinner with Brian Cashman.

Debating the merits and estimating the size and length of Jeter's next deal are wholly futile at this point, despite the fact that this is a hotly debated topic and will be revisited ad naseum throughout the season.

How Jeter performs this year is going to go much further in shaping his next contract than any facts of the situation as they currently exist. If the Captain continues his excellent offensive production and is again solid at shortstop, the Yankees are going to be backing up the truck in a big way. If he struggles at the plate or in the field or God forbid, gets injured, the franchise isn't just going to give him a blank check.

Paradoxically, the better Jeter plays this year, the uglier the back end of his contract has the potential to look. Of course, we'd all "settle for" a great season and the resulting huge contract, but the best of both worlds scenario would be for Jeter to have a good but not great season and go back to being great in 2011. The first and foremost concern though, is Jeter's ability to stay productive in his later years, and unfortunately for the Yanks' checkbook, there is a direct relationship between the probability that he will continue to produce at an elite level and how much they are going to have to pay for the privilege of retaining his services.

24 Days Until Spring Training: Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano isn't young for a baseball player anymore. He seems like a bit of a fledgling in comparison to the rest of the established stars on the Yankees but he turned 27 last October and is now entering his physical prime. Cano is slated to make $9M in 2010, so he is becoming less of an automatic bargain and more of a good value contingent on good performance.

With the departures of Melky Cabrera and Chein-Ming Wang this offseason, Cano alone now bridges the gap of home grown talent between the old guard of Jeter, Rivera, Posada and Pettitte and the newer generation of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Brett Gardner. He's the only outstanding hitting prospect the Yankees have developed and retained in recent years and provides elite production at an important defensive position.

Cano's abilities at second base are tough to quantify, as Joe from River Ave. Blue pointed out before last season began. He possesses the ability to make plays on balls that are hit outside of his zone, but is also prone to making sloppy mistakes on relatively easy opportunities. UZR rated Cano as slightly below average last season (-5.2) which is close to his career norm. Fortunately, Robby hits more than enough to make up for any deficiencies he might have in the field.

After a terrible year at the plate in 2008, Cano rebounded last season with a .370 wOBA, the second best mark of his career. He set new career highs in home runs (25), doubles (48) and ISO (.199) without adversely affecting his batting average (.320). He batted significantly better at Yankee Stadium than on the road, but hit a fairly balanced 14 of his homers in the Bronx.

Cano's only real flaw as a hitter is his lack of patience, an attribute which is exacerbated by the fact that he is near the top of the league in contact percentage - both inside and outside of the strike zone. He made contact with 77% of offerings outside of the zone in 2009, a number which has increased every year he's been in the league. The percentage of pitches out of the zone he offers at has remained close to 30%, meaning that he's either getting more selective, getting better at putting the bat on the ball or some combination of the two.

Robby is also near the top of the league in first strike percentage, despite the fact that he only swings at the first pitch of the at bat 34% of the time. It's easy to understand why Cano or the coaching staff might take this tact - he's already near the bottom of the league in pitches seen per plate appearance - but it appears that pitchers are a little too comfortable grooving a strike in there and putting Cano in an unfavorable count. Clearly opposing hurlers are trying to exploit this tendency and Cano could benefit by being more aggressive on the first pitch.

As has been the case throughout his career, Cano struggled with runners in scoring position in 2009. Mike from River Ave. Blues identified BABIP as a major culprit for the discrepancy but clearly there is something in his approach that keeps him from racking up more RBIs. Similarly, Cano didn't fare very well in the 2009 postseason either, hitting a paltry .193/.266/.281 surpassed in futility on the Yankees only by Nick Swisher. But all's well that ends well.

Cano is probably my favorite Yankee. During a time when the farm system wasn't turning out many prospects, Robby emerged to fill a position that the Yankees have had very few stars at over the course of their history. He has plenty of flaws as a player, some of which we didn't even discuss, but those make Cano who he is.

In Defense Of Mark Teixeira

Mark Teixeira is hitting .120/.241/.240 with just one extra base hit in 29 PA this post-season. That assuredly is not a good line, particularly from a team's number three hitter. Unfortunately, Teixeira has begun this post-season in a slump much like the one he had to begin the regular season, except thus far he hasn't had the walk rate or the power to supplement his poor batting average as he did early the season.

Partly because of the game winning home run Teixeira hit in Game Two of the ALDS and partly because everything had been all puppy dogs and roses for the Yankees up until yesterday, Teixeira hasn't yet come under any A-Rod style media fire. Yet rest assured, should his struggles continue or should the Yankees have the audacity to lose another game, Teix is going to start feeling some heat.

Yet, home run aside, Teixeira has been a valuable player for the Yankees this post-season. Through Games One and Two of the ALCS, he made several good plays around first base, coaxing outs from errant throws out of the cold hands of Yankee infielders. In Game Two of the ALDS Teixeira was David Robertson's biggest ally in pitching out of a bases loaded no out jam in the eleventh inning, spearing a screaming lining drive off the bat of Delmon Young for the first out and then fielding a hot shot grounder and firing home for the second.

Yesterday, Teixeira went 0 for 3 with 2 BBs, but he made several key plays in the field. In the eighth, Bobby Abreu led off with a double to the center field fence. Abreu spent two and a half seasons with the Yankees. He knows the strength of Melky Cabrera's arm. He knows Derek Jeter's knack for being in the right spot and making head's up plays. He assuredly saw Jeter's role in getting big base running outs against Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto in the ALDS. What Abreu didn't know was that with both Jeter and Cano in short center field for relay throws, Mark Teixeira was trailing him up the base line. When Abreu took an overly aggressive turn towards third base, Teix called for the ball. Jeter adjusted as he returned to the ground from his leap, and he and Teix had Abreu dead to rights as he retreated to second base. The play gets lost in the shuffle of what came after it and the Angels' eventual victory, but this was a huge huge play at the time.

Later in the inning, Teix snagged an errant throw from A-Rod as it tailed towards the home plate side of the first baseline, and managed to tag Vladimir Guerrero on his way by to record the innings final out. In the ninth, Teix snagged a hot shot liner off the bat of Kendry Morales for the second out.

In the tenth, as the Yankees faced a huge jam with the winning run on third and no one out, Teixeira once again played a key role in defusing the situation. With the infield drawn in, Teix made a diving stop on a hot shot grounder from Chone Figgins, looked the runner back to third, and tagged first for the inning's first out. A batter later he snagged a hard grounder from Torii Hunter and forced the runner at home for the second out. Finally, he snagged Vlad Guerrero's grounder in the hole and beat him to the bag for the final out.

First baseman are paid to hit. Number three hitters are expected to hit. And eventually the Yankees are going to need some offense from Teixeira this month. But, even with his current struggles at the plate Mark Teixeira is making some big contributions to the Yankees.

Out Of Left Field

(AP/ESPN)

Thus says our muse:

"You're being a little critical. What do you want me to tell you? You want me to tell you I took a bad route to the ball on the second one? OK, I took a bad route. I don't know what to tell you ... I'm not an outfielder. I'm an infielder." (source)

Yes Youk, you did take a bad route. But hey, at least it wasn't an E7 like the first one.

Kevin Youkilis' UZR/150 for LF in 2009: -81.7

Kevin Youkilis' UZR/150 for LF for his career: -21.9

Saturday might be the last time we see the Youkstah in the OF.

It Ain't The Scoops

We all knew Mark Teixeria was going to be a gigantic improvement over Jason Giambi in a number of ways when the Yankees signed him just before Christmas. He figured to hit for a higher average, have an equal or better OBP, hit as many home runs or more, run the bases more effectively and perhaps most obviously, be able to play first base almost daily and field the position well.

In my post about Derek Jeter's defensive improvements this year, here is what I said about Teixeira's positive impact on him:

Teixeria's glove probably helps, but Jeter has never made many throwing errors. He is on pace for 5 this year and has averaged 6.5 per season since 2001.

It was a pretty blunt measurement, and it turns out I might have actually oversold Teix's influence on fielding throws to first.

John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible II, contends that there isn't much evidence to suggest that Teixeira is better at rounding up errant throws than the Big G: (h/t BBTF)

In fact, in 2008, Giambi's 29 scoops for the Yankees were good for 0.26 scoops per game started, while Teixeira's 2009 scoops for the Yankees are only 0.23 per game.

Dewan's Plus/Minus System keeps track of positive and negative fielding plays made by each player in every game and recently added "scoops" by a first baseman which would have prevented an error by an infielder as a positive play. These stats are tallied by actual people watching the games, so there is a human element involved, but on the whole would figure to be pretty accurate.

The only thing I can think of which would skew the results is that Teixeira can cover more territory with his foot on the bag than Giambi, and this extended range allows his to field balls Giambi would have had to reach for without scooping them. But I don't think that could occur often enough to make much of an impact.

So where does Teixeira surpass Giambi?

The true difference between Gold Glover Mark Teixeira and Jason Giambi is in handling grounders. In the last two years Teixeira has saved his teams 18 runs fielding grounders, while Giambi has cost his team 18, a 36-run difference in Defensive Runs Saved.

Keep in mind those numbers are over the course of two years, but that is a massive gap in terms of fielding ability. To put it another way, Teixeira's career UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating averaged over 150 games) is 2.2 while Giambi's is -7.2. Giambi might think he's a great defender, but that's obviously not what the numbers say.

Defensive performance is never going to be as easy to put a numerical value on as offensive production, but this should at least help us appreciate what Teix brings to the table on both sides of the ball.

On Jeter's Newfound Range

If you ask an average Yankee fan in the stands to rate Derek Jeter's defensive abilities, their answers would probably skew towards good or even great. He looks athletic, doesn't make a lot of errors, does the jump throw... superficially, it's the obvious conclusion. However, if you asked the typically baseball blog reader to give their opinion, they would probably end up on the opposite end of the spectrum, towards poor or even terrible. Of course, there are blog readers in the stands and casual fans who read this site, but the point being that the subject of Jeter's fielding abilities is simultaneously foreign to the masses and nearly passé to the baseball blogosphere.

Interestingly, this season, Jeter has made the crowds look wise and all of the idiots who were talking about the demise of Derek's defense (ahem, myself included), look somewhat foolish. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com recently took a deeper look into Jeter's play at shortstop this season and attempted to explain how his Ultimate Zone Rating has increased at age 35 to it's highest level since they began tracking UZR in 2002:

Thanks to a number of variables, Jeter has continued to find ways to turn back the hands of time defensively this year. He continued to follow the program outlined by Yankees strength and conditioning coach Dana Cavalea, but he has also been assisted by aggressive defensive positioning on the part of infield coach Mick Kelleher.

Better health has also been a factor, as Cashman said there was "no doubt" at times that Jeter's health inhibited him in past seasons. So has adding a Gold Glove first baseman and receptive target in Mark Teixeira.

While player's defensive performance is certain to vary from year to year, it seems less likely for someone to have a sudden improvement in their fielding in their mid-30's than it would be for them to have a career year at the plate. With defense, the outcomes are mostly binary; the play either gets made or it doesn't. With offense, there are vary degrees of success or failure a batter can attain, ranging from a double play to a home run, creating a wider gap between failure and success. Luck is also a bigger factor for hitters as they can't control where a batted ball goes to anywhere near the extend a fielder can position themselves to catch one.

There is also an inherent assumption that defense is the bastion of the young and agile. It's based on quickness, agility and reaction time, all attributes which inevitably fade with age. Production at the plate can improve with patience, power and experience, most of which players do not possess when they first enter the league.

So how is it that Jeter is enjoying this renaissance now?

Of Hoch's four points above, one stands out as being the most significant: His positioning. UZR is calculated by dividing the field into 64 zones, and tracking whether or not players get to balls in what areas of the field. If Jeter is in fact being positioned better, which David Pinto also believes, it's going to appear that his range is increased when in fact he simply doesn't have to cover as much territory as he once did. (See here for a hilarious anecdote by the legendary Repoz of BBTF.)

Teixeria's glove probably helps, but Jeter has never made many throwing errors. He is on pace for 5 this year and has averaged 6.5 per season since 2001. His arm isn't the issue. I'm sure his improved health and conditioning regiment (which was intended to improve his explosiveness and lateral agility) have helped as well.

However, it's much easier to believe that Jeter is simply in better position to field balls hit his way than it is to think the Yankees hold the secret to a rejuvenating exercise program, or that he was playing badly injured over the last 8 seasons. Which is most certainly a good thing, because defensive positioning is much easier to control than health or lateral agility.

The Erroneous Streak

Errors might be the most flawed statistic in baseball. Wins and batting average don't paint nearly the complete picture they are given credit for, saves are arbitrarily defined, RBIs are greatly influenced by a hitters place in the line-up and a catcher's caught stealing percentage is badly skewed by the pitcher who is throwing to him. Still, I think errors tell you the least of any popular metric about what happens on the field.

Bill James famously broke down the difference between a good and bad defensive shortstop for John Dewan's Fielding Bible and his analysis purposefully removed errors from the equation. An error only measures when a player makes a mistake on a ball that they got to. It can't take into account the difference in range, which is the most important overall defensive factor. 

Your baseball career wouldn't last very long if you did this, but a shortstop could theoretically stand in the same place for the entire game and as long as they caught every ball within their reach, they would never be docked with an E6. 

It's great that the Yankees just set the Major League record for most consecutive games without an error. It means that everyone has performed their position somewhat competently over that stretch. At least that's what you would assume, right?

Just as one example, take Brett Gardner's play during the fifth inning of Sunday's game on Asdrubal Cabrera's line drive. It was a ball that he easily could have caught, had he read the ball correctly off the bat. Instead he misjudged it, took a step forward, then retreated and reached towards the ball as it sailed past him for a double. Ironically, had he been slightly closer to making the play, and it tipped off his glove, it would have been scored an error. While not an error in official baseball scoring, it still made the game recaps and highlight reels and was cast as an obvious mistake. 

Since defensive statistics are relatively new and difficult to quantify, we can't go back and see what the best 18 game streak of defensive play in the history of the MLB was. Dewan's plus/minus system has only been around since 2004. UZR only goes back to '04 as well. I did a pretty entensive search for a study looking into the best fielding teams of all times and came up empty aside from straight sorts based on fielding percentage. The nature of batted balls and the dimensions of parks have changed throughout the years, making it even more difficult to quantify. 

If you had a Retrosheet Database, it would be easier, and more to the point to find the lowest amount of runs allowed by a pitching staff over that same time period and adjust for era. During the last 18 games, the Yankees pitchers have allowed only 3 1/3 runs per outing, a feat which I find far more remarkable.

This Year Most Likely The Swan Song For Matsui

From Joel Sherman's "3 Up, 3 Down" blog post this morning (emphasis mine):

In Sunday's Post, I wrote a column about the death of the traditional DH; the single-dimensional type who need not even have a fielding mitt ordered for him. During the course of reporting on the column, I was told by several Yankee executives that there is almost zero chance that Hideki Matsui will be re-signed after the season, even if he were to finish with a strong season and despite the strong presence he affords them in Japan.

It shouldn't come as much of a shock, but that was the first time I've heard it from people within the organization, in such definite terms. 

Matsui is unable to play the field, stay healthy or really hit at the level that should be expected from a DH. He's hit 7 HRs and has a 116 OPS+, but the facts are he can't even be trusted to play a corner outfield position and is going to be 36 next season. If the Yanks are looking to get younger, like they have said in the past, and more versatile like others have suggested, Matsui just isn't the right fit.  

Ramiro O Angel

According to Bronx Banter and others, the last roster spot up for grabs on the Yankees is a utility infielder being contested between Ramiro Pena and Angel Berroa. Pena is 22 years old and due to a hot Spring and tremendous defensive ability, he has now entered the discussion as the heir apparent to Derek Jeter. Berroa won the Rookie of the Year in Kansas City in 2003, but has never had an OPS+ higher than 81 since, and only played 93 games in the last two years in the MLB.

A quick look at Pena's minor league stats (primarily at AA) shows a line of .258/.316/.319. In the last two years, he has only 3HRs and 15 SBs in 163 games while striking out 109 times to 63 walks. That would be pretty anemic, even if it wasn't accumulated two levels below the majors.

Here are their lines this Spring.

Pena - .305/.359/.373
Berroa - .379/.390/.621

Not to go too overboard with Spring stats, but Berroa clearly has some pop, while Pena still does not. Berroa is not nearly the infield defender that Pena is, but what are the chances that Girardi lifts Jeter for a late inning defensive replacement? I say slim to none. Cody Ransom is already basically a defensive replacement at third and neither of the two guys in competition are significantly better with the lumber.

I'm guessing that the Yanks will go with Berroa. If they really believe that Pena is the shortstop of the future, then I don't think sitting him on the major league bench and only allowing him to play a couple of innings every couple of games would be the best way to continue his development. Let Berroa take the spot, and if he falters, Pena will be waiting in the wings.

My guess is that this has already been determined and they are letting Pena play out the string and expose him to some pressure on the big stage. Going with Berroa is a better diction for now because he is a better hitter, and for the future, because Pena needs to continue improving down in the minors.

Yeeeeaaaaah, I'm Gonna Have To Go Ahead And Disagree With You On That One

Blez from Athletics Nation has an excellent interview with Jason Giambi containing some interesting tidbits (h/t Joe P. from RAB). One of them would have altered the course of Yankee history, and the other one is just plain hilarious.

Blez: How do you view yourself as a defensive first baseman? There have been a lot of people who have said that you've had better days as a defensive first baseman, yet your fielding percentage is pretty high. So how do you view yourself?

Giambi: I view myself as great. I get the job done and that's what I'm out there for. The one thing that I know that I'm good at and you can ask Chavy and the younger guys and even Jeet (Derek Jeter) is that I've helped win a lot of guys gold gloves because I'm really good at picking balls out of the dirt. I think it's because when I was younger and playing in the Coliseum I got tired of running for the ball around all that foul ground.

If by "great" you mean "marginal", "poor", "below average", "terrible", "clumsy", or "really shitty", I totally agree. Find me one other person who would describe Giambi's defense as great without immediatley breaking out laughing, please. I love Giambi, but that is just ridiculous.

I'm not huge on defensive statistics. They all seem to have some judgement calls and subjective components built in. Until someone invents an intricate system of lasers that measures every single thing happening on a baseball field at once, we aren't really going to be able to understand the little things that separate bad from decent from good from great.

However, since there is no such laser system, I took a look at Giambi's UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) over at FanGraphs and here's what I found.

Key:

DG = Defensive Games Played

RngR = Range Runs (The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.)

ErrR = Error Runs (The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.)

UZR = Ultimate Zone Rating (The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.)

The shading coincides with the number of games he played, so the darker the gray, the fewer games at 1B.

The only "seasons" he even masquraded as an average first baseman, he played 43 & 14 games. That's a lot of red for a "great" defensive first baseman.

Number of Days Until Spring Training: Derek Jeter (#2)

Did you notice that last year, Derek Jeter had his worst full season offensively as a professional? He had similar OPS+'s in 1996 and 1997 but that takes into account the inflated offensive era those years were a part of. His 2008 batting average (-.16), on-base percentage (-.24) and slugging percentage (-.50) were all well off his career marks. Consequently, his counting stats (11HR, 69 RsBI) were far below his averages too. He only stole eleven bases, and was caught five times.

Before I looked those numbers up, I didn't notice either. He doesn't seem to fall into extended slumps and as a fan watching the games, your memories are probably shaped more by how many hits he gets as opposed to his OPS.

Jeter's image, of course, is solid titanium and during last season he was linked to Minka Kelly, appeared in Ford and Gatorade commercials and gave a great speech after the last game at the Old Stadium that Will and I were fortunate enough to witness (even from two obstructed view seats in the left field upper deck). It's easy to overlook or forgive his slipping production.

A shortstop who has been a defensive liability for quite some time, his offense is falling far enough to make him dangerously close to an average player. Some attributed his slack in production to the game on May 21st, when he was hit on the hand by Garrett Olsen. But how long can an injury serve as an excuse for sub-par hitting? The "bad habits" he's picked up should have probably corrected themselves within several weeks of the incident.

His '08 OPS+ was 102 (almost exactly league average) and he was only about 50% successful at getting runners in from third with fewer than two outs. Somehow, he both walked and struck out less. He grounded into 24 double plays, the most in his career and he was behind only much slower runners Vlad Guerrero, Magglio Ordonez and Jermaine Dye.

That's what the numbers tell me. My recollection of watching games this past year tells me that he was less patient at the plate, swinging at the first pitch too frequently, and fouling off more of the balls he used to put in play, and making weaker contact on the balls he used to drive.

In a subjective recall, double plays stand out, not only because they make two outs and erase a hit, but they also kill the mythological "momentum". Similarly, getting runners in from third leave a perceived gimme run on base. These are the kind of plays that fans overvalue. How long is it going to take before they start turning on Jeter? I know he is the ultimate Teflon Man, for the all reasons that we are all too familiar with. But there is a bare minimum level of production fans are willing to tolerate.

Bernie Williams, also a homegrown Yankee, here for all four of the World Series Championships in the late 90's/2000, a former batting champion, World Series MVP, four time Gold Glove winner, and "True Yankee" still saw the fans and the organization turn on him when his power went away and his GIDP's weren't balanced out by the rest of his offensive contributions.

Jeter will make $20 and $21 million over the next two years, respectively. The Yankees decision to backload the contract has left the door open for media criticism of his lack of productivity in relation to his salary. No question Jeter has been worth the value over the length of the contract just on the field. In addition, his value to the club extends well beyond that. I'm not even talking about intangibles, but about the marketability he adds to the Yankees. He is a major reason ESPN covers the Yankees so closely, and his gravitas keeps him and the Yankees on the back pages in New York. Jeter and A-Rod, account for the vast majority of the Yankees star power which shouldn't be overlooked.

After 2010, the organization might have quite the quandary on its hands. Jeter seemingly refuses to acknowledge the erosion of his skills, especially defensively. He's said he doesn't want to move from shortstop, which is okay, in one respect, because aside from catcher, it has the highest tolerance for a below average offensive player. However his defensive range continues to slide, at the second most valuable defensive position.

In a perfect world, he could switch to center field this coming year, replacing the Melky/Gardner shitburger/poo sandwich combo, and hold the place for Austin Jackson. Of course that would require that the Yankees acquire someone who was significantly superior defensively than Jeter (and serviceable offensively), and there aren't an obvious options that wouldn't require a major sacrifice.

I've heard people speculate that before Derek Jeter's career is over, he might amass more than 4,000 hits. He currently has 2,535, still 465 short of 3,000. He certainly won't be at 3K by the time his contract expires in 2010. Will the Yankees give him a sweetheart, lifetime achievement contract as he continues to decline? They didn't with Bernie, and although their star status is not comprable, the decision making may be similar, considering the will likely occur in the Brain Cashman Era.

Will there be a Brett Favre-like "player wants to come back but team wants to move on" scenario? Doubtful, but if Jeter wants a contract based on his previous one and past accomplishments and the Yankees want one that more closely reflects his current value as a player, they might find it hard to come together.