Girardi's Damages Credibility With Choice Of Konerko

On Wednesday, Justin Morneau suffered a concussion after taking a knee to the head trying to break up a double play against the Blue Jays. The Twins' slugger has a history of concussions and as a result, he hasn't played since, so the injury opened up a slot at first base on the All-Star team. In this situation, the manger of the American League squad is responsible for picking a player to replace the injured one. And Joe Girardi chose Paul Konerko over Kevin Youkilis, who just barely lost to Nick Swisher in the Final Vote.

The first reaction that many have had is that the Yankees skipper didn't want to take a player from the enemy Red Sox. Girardi's justification? The numbers:

I’m looking at the numbers, the numbers are close and one guy’s numbers are a little bit better. I took the guy whose numbers are a little bit better.

But did he?

Konerko has a slight lead in the three most popular (and flawed) metrics - batting average, homers and RBIs - but Youk has him beat by a mile in on-base percentage and has outslugged him by a fair bit as well. And this is before you account for fielding, which isn't even a contest between the two - Konerko is marginal at best while Youk is one of the better defenders at first base in the league and is capable of playing third base as well.

I'm not going to shed any tears over Youk not being named an All-Star this year and I don't think that Girardi avoided picking him because he's on the Red Sox. As Joe Posnanski put it:

Now, look, Joe Girardi is not some 12-year-old looking at the back of 1978 baseball cards. He’s the manager of the New York Yankees, the defending World Series champion, the $200 million super team and the biggest brand in American sports. And you’re telling me he really looks at the numbers of Paul Konerko and Kevin Youkilis’ numbers and thinks Konerko’s are “a little bit better?” This is beyond ludicrous.

Later in that same article, Poz also points out that one of these guys is a complete creation of the home park they play in, and it's not Youkilis.

Joe Girardi, Northwestern Grad, Man of Many Binders, Certified Mananger By The Numbers®

either didn't bother to or can't do some extremely basic and fundamental comparative analysis. Seriously?

You don't have to get into WAR and wOBA to see that Youk is having a better year than Konerko - just look at their on-base percentages. Plus, Girardi sees Youk on a fairly regular basis, so you'd think he'd have more respect for how tough of an out he is and what he is capable of defensively.

It's not up for debate. If you know anything about objective baseball analysis, you can determine within about 30 seconds at either B-Ref or FanGraphs, conclusively, that Paul Konerko is not having as good of a year as Kevin Youkilis.

Lots of times, when Girardi makes a pitching change late in the game or calls for a maneuver that I disagree with, I'll think to myself "Okay, maybe he just has more (and better) information than I do. Perhaps he knows something that I don't". Well, in this case at least, it's the other way around.

Double Triples

Good morning, Fackers. We're going to start off this Friday with some fun stuff we found by digging through Baseball-Reference's Play Index. Basically, we are going to go Jayson Stark on your asses for a moment.

Last night, Curtis Granderson notched the first and second triples of his young Yankee career, the first down the right field line off Scott Kazmir in the 4th inning and the second a deep fly to right center off of Brian Stokes in the following inning.

• Granderson led the league with 23 triples during his monster 2007. That year he became the 6th member of the 20-20-20 club, by collecting more than 20 doubles and 20 homers as well.
  
  
• Two triple games are nothing new to Granderson, as the one last night was the 5th of his career. He had two of them in 2007 (one against the Yankees) and two more in 2008. One of those '08 games was against the Rangers in August, and like last night, he did it in back to back ABs in consecutive innings. Unlike last night though, he drove in 4 runs in the process.
  
  
• The last Yankee to have two triples in one game was current Angel Bobby Abreu in 2008, but that happened in the Metro Dome. The last Yankee to do it at home was Enrique Wilson back in 2002 against the Indians.
  
  
• Twenty years and two days before Wilson did it, Ken Griffey Sr. pulled off the same feat against the Brewers at the Stadium. Like Granderson, Griffey did it in consecutive at bats (his 1st & 2nd) in back to back innings (the 1st and 2nd) off of two different pitchers (Moose Haas & Jerry Augustine).
  
  
• The only Yankees ever to collect three three-baggers in one game were Joe DiMaggio back in 1938 (who somehow only scored one run in that game) and Earle Combs in 1928. The Yanks happened to win both of those games by a score of 8-7. Furthermore, they blew one run leads in the top of the ninth inning in both of them and came back to walk off with the win in the bottom half.
  
  
• There were at least 32 multiple triple games by Yankee batters in the pre-renovation years of Yankee Stadium and likely more because the Play Index isn't totally complete. Conversely, there were only 4 from 1973 to 2008.
  
  
• Now there is one in the first 84 regular season games in the new joint, a park which suppresses extra-base hits that aren't home runs.
  
  
• On Wednesday night Nick Swisher had a triple as well, giving the Yanks 3 of them in 2 games, something that hasn't happened since 2007. Before that though, you have to go back to 1998, when the Yanks hit four triples in the same night against the Rangers in Arlington (two by Bernie Williams and one each by Derek Jeter and Tim Raines). That game was a 15-13 battle during which the Yanks and Rangers each had a 7 run inning.

They say triples are the most exciting play in baseball and I can't argue with that. Granderson is going to have a tough time legging out too many of them in Yankee Stadium but if he can pick up 10 of them, he'd be the first Yankee to do it since Jerry Mumphrey in 1982. Keep chuggin', Curtis.

The Yankees Might Be Getting 2 Years Younger

Over at the Baseball-Reference blog, Sean Foreman is considering divorcing the 1901-02 Baltimore Orioles from the 1903 New York Highlanders from the rest of the Yankees franchise. The ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia considers them to be two distinct franchises and Foreman asked one of the authors, Gary Gillette, why that decision was made:

We discussed this at length when we did the first edition of our new encyclopedia in 2004. IIRC, the deciding factor was that the Baltimore franchise went bust during the season and was turned over to the league. After the season, the league then sold a new franchise to investors in New York City. We felt that wasn't really a relocation or a transfer; it was simply filling the gap in the league that was opened when the Orioles' franchise disintegrated.

Of the 39 players who appeared for Baltimore in 1902, only five appeared for New York in 1903. Jimmy Williams was the regular second baseman for both clubs. Herm McFarland, a utility player in '02, became a regular outfielder in '03. Ernie Courtney played one game for Baltimore. in 1902, then 25 for NY in 1903. Harry Howell was the only pitcher of consequence to make the transition. Snake Wiltse (4 G in '03) also appeared for both.

Before 1900, the Baltimore Orioles had been a National League club. They existed from 1892 to 1899, winning three straight championships in 1894, 1895 and 1896 and featured greats such as Wee Willie Keeler and John McGraw (who would go on to become player-manager of the team in 1899). The O's were disbanded after that 1899 season when the National League was contracted from 12 teams to 8.

The Orioles were re-formed with some of the same pieces, including McGraw, shortstop Bill Keister and second baseman Jimmy Williams in 1901 as an AL squad. Commissioner Ban Johnson had begun the American League and after a season without baseball in Baltimore in 1900, the city and the players were anxious to rejoin. However, Johnson was a proponent of "clean baseball" whereas McGraw was most certainly not.

Up until that point, baseball games were marked with brutal violence, including umpire abuse. According to the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract:

Players spiked one another. A first baseman would grab the belt of the baserunner to hold him back a half-second after the ball was hit. Players tripped one another as they rounded the bases. Fights broke out on more days than not. Players shoved umpires, spat on them, and punched them. Fans hurled insults and beer bottles at the players on opposing teams.

The Orioles were the best team of the 1890's by a considerable margin, and were responsible for promoting this style of play. McGraw in particular was especially nasty. As was noted in The Ultimate Baseball Book, he "had a genius for making enemies".

So perhaps McGraw becoming the manager for one of the teams in Johnson's new, "clean" league wasn't the best idea. But they needed each other. After spending 1900 in St. Louis, McGraw wanted to return to Baltimore and Johnson needed a team there.

It all came to a head during the Orioles second season in the American League. After a litany of fines and brief suspensions for his foul and sometimes violent play, Johnson suspended McGraw indefinitely. After the decision came down, McGraw persuaded John T. Brush, the chairman of the National League Executive Committee to buy a share of the Orioles. Brush obliged and promptly began by releasing McGraw and other players from their contracts. McGraw landed with the Giants where he would play for the next four and a half years and manage for the next 29. It got so bad that the Orioles couldn't field a full team by mid-July and the American League took ownership of the club and starting filling the roster with players from other AL teams.

Up until 1902, the National League claimed that they had the right to keep the American League out of New York. However, when Brush had bought a controlling interest in the Giants - already being managed by McGraw - Johnson chose to disregard the pact. After their blanant sabotage of the Orioles, Johnson saw an opportunity to get even. He decided that he needed to give the American League a foothold in what was then the undisputed baseball capital of the world.

With the help of commissioner Johnson, the Highlanders then began snatching up talent from National League teams. They pillaged Wee Willie Keeler from Brooklyn and Jack Chesboro, Lefty Davis, Jesse Tannenhill and Wid Conroy from Pittsburgh, among others. They also built a brand new stadium in Washington Heights called Hilltop Park which, to the dismay of the Giants was only a few blocks from the Polo Grounds. It would be a few years before the team would compete but the new owners of the franchise, Frank Farrell and Bill Devery, were set up very nicely by the commissioner and his desire for revenge.

The Highlanders undoubtedly took the place of the Orioles as the 8th team in the American League when they began play in 1903. However, the fact that only five (or six, depending on the source) players carried over from Baltimore to New York calls into question whether or not they were really the same team. They didn't have the same manager or owners. So were they the same franchise? It seems like the Orioles were killed by John McGraw and John T. Brush only to be reincarnated by Ban Johnson as the Highlanders. One in the same though? I'm not sure.

There is a debate going on over in the comments at the B-R blog and if you feel strongly either way, let your opinion be heard. I could go either way.

Mondays With Curtis

Mitch Albom is very good at writing about "life". Life in quotation marks is inspiring and fits neatly into books which sell lots of copies and get turned into TV movies. "Life" teaches you important lessons about compassion and morality and kindness and faith and - most prominently in Albom's books - death. Unfortunately, baseball has little to do with "life" and everything to do with reality, so Mitch isn't very good at writing about it.

In his column in the Detroit Free Press yesterday, Albom tries to talk those Tiger fans who are distraught about the loss of Curtis Granderson down from the ledge. It's an admirable goal since Detroit lost the de facto face of their franchise and a guy who is by all accounts a very likable person. Except Mitch chooses to pretend that Granderson was never good in order to do so.

What did we know about Curtis Granderson? He had a great smile. He had a foundation. He made a few highlight plays in centerfield and had a good first half and a not-so-good second half in 2009.

That's what someone who is a casual fan of say, the Marlins knows about Curtis Granderson. We (as the supposed audience of this column - Detroit Tigers' fans) actually know a lot more about him than that. We know that in 2007 he hit 23 triples, 23 home runs and stole 26 bases while being caught only once which is pretty fucking amazing. We know that he's hit 94 home runs over the past 4 years which is great for a center fielder. We know that he is a pretty awesome player who doesn't cost that much money, neither of which are things that Dontrelle Wills, Jeremy Bonderman or Nate Robertson can say.

He'll also be 29 years old. Been an All-Star once.

Well he is 28 years old, so like anyone else who is under the age of 29, if he doesn't die tragically he'll be 29 years old eventually. And guess what year he made that All-Star team? This year of course, which was by far the worst of his previous three.

Only once has he hit 30 home runs or batted .300.

Another way of saying that would be "He has both hit 30 home runs and batted .300 before, although in separate seasons" which doesn't sound like the degradation that Albom tries to make it out to be.

He hit .095 in his lone World Series.

My favorite part of this sentence is the fact that Albom uses the word "lone" as if the fact that he made it to a World Series in his four full seasons as a pro was a knock against him. All the while, Albom is seemingly oblivious to the fact that 21 at bats over six games probably isn't a sufficient sample size to draw an actual conclusion from, especially when Granderson hit .313/.378/.719 in the ALDS and ALCS that same year.

Last year, he was benched occasionally against left-handers.

Could you be a little more vague here, Mitch? You know that they track statistics based on what hand a pitcher throws with, right? You could cite something called a "platoon split" if you wanted to make the case that he couldn't hit lefties.

Granderson was as close to a star in this town as the franchise had, mostly because Justin Verlander is too low key (and plays once every five games), and guys with flashier numbers -- like Miguel Cabrera or the 2007 Magglio Ordoñez -- seem eminently distant. They bolt town the minute the season is over. They seem... rented.

That is impossible to fathom. You mean to tell me that two players from the beautiful tropical nation of Venezuela return to that country to spend time with their families instead of staying in Detroit in the fucking dead of winter?

But baseball-wise, he was no Derek Jeter, a guy justifiably adored in New York for achievement and personality. He was no Albert Pujols in St. Louis. He was more like the closest thing we had to those guys, which says something about the Tigers.

Yes, it says that they have not been lucky enough to develop and retain an incredibly gifted franchise cornerstone player who has pretty much already punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame. Look around the league right now, who else fits this mold? Um, no one? Choke on that one Curtis Granderson... You may be an above average baseball player and an overall class act, but like everyone else in the MLB, you are not Derek Jeter or Albert Puljos!

"It's sad, but most likely you're not gonna see players in the same uniform for 10, 12, 15 years anymore," manager Jim Leyland told me last week. Leyland understood fans' frustration. He said Granderson was everything good about baseball. But he fell short of saying "we're losing a great talent" or "the heart of our team."

I know it would probably be futile to try to explain this to someone who cited a player's batting average in six games as a crucial stat, but the Amount of Praise Lavished Upon a Player By Their Manager After They Have Been Traded (APLUPBTMATHBT for short) is not a very good measure of their value.

What's surprising is how thin the "beloved superstar" tag has become for the Tigers over the past decade. Pudge Rodriguez? How connected was he to Detroit, really? Todd Jones? Bobby Higginson? Hardly superstars. We liked their longevity.

Considering the team lost 83, 96, 106, and 119 games in each of the first four years of the decade, it's really not that surprising at all. And just for fun, Bobby Higginson only hit 30 home runs and batted over .300 once and he played left field during the steroid era.

Granderson became someone to embrace, at least a bit, the way we once embraced Gibby or Tram, even if he wasn't that caliber player here, nor did he win the things they won. Good talent. Great guy. But I wonder if we don't lament the idea of him leaving as much as the departure itself.

But don't worry guys, Curtis Granderson the sixth person you'll meet in heaven.

The Last Off Night Before The Offseason

First and foremost, huge congrats to a good friend of the blog, Craig Calcaterra.

After graduating from Blogspot to The Hardball Times and leveraging that into a part-time gig at NBC Sports, the Shyster is quitting his day job and moving to NBC Sports full-time. Like many others, I found Shysterball through Rob Neyer and have enjoyed his work for a long time. A while back, I used him as an example of the kind of blogger we would benefit by paying a small monthly fee to, in order free him from the legal world and make his content even better. Fortunately for us, NBC has agreed to foot that bill, so Craig gets the cash and we get the pleasure of reading a talented full-time writer for free.

So from one bald baseball blogger to another, well done, sir.

=====

Okay, back to our regularly scheduled linkaround.

Barring any sort of foul weather, this will be the last off night of the season. Of course, off nights will be in no short supply soon enough, but this is the last one where we are going to have anything immediate to look forward to for a very long time.

If the series goes 7 games, the Yankees will have played 16 games in 32 days since the end of the regular season. As Joel Sherman points out today, the Yankees didn't have their 16th day off during the regular season until after their 147th game. And that includes the All-Star break. It's obviously not the intention of Major League Baseball to ween us off our dependence on the game with the spacing of the schedule (that would be to make as much money as possible) but it's kind that it works out that way.

It's official, Andy Pettitte will start Game 6. That's not much of surprise but the fact that Joe Girardi is apparently toying with the idea of starting Jerry Hairston Jr. in RF certainly is.

Guess who disagrees with the decision to start Burnett on 3 days rest? I'm not going to print his name because he's an admitted compulsive self-Googler.

A list of World Series contributions measured in WPA. Could there possibly be a batter more valuable than Chase Utley? Yes and another Yankee isn't far behind. (via Joe P.)

Rob Neyer wonders if the Yankees' desire to get younger means we're seeing last of Hideki Matsui in Pinstripes. David Pinto speculates that the Yankees might let go of Matsui and Johnny Damon in favor of signing Matt Holliday.

Am I the only one fundamentally opposed to Matt Holliday? I was not high on his prospects at the beginning of this year, and if you'll recall, he wasn't all that great in 400 PAs in Oakland before getting dealt to St. Louis. Yankee Stadium is certainly a hitter's park but he has hit 77% of his career home runs between the left foul pole and center field. That's not where you're going find the easy taters in the Bronx. Oh and Scott Boras is his agent. No thanks.

Dan Levy at the Sporting Blog looks at Chase Utley's chances of winning the World Series MVP if the Phillies lose. Follow the discussion over here. Sean Forman (also of Baseball-Reference) writes a piece for the Bats Blog dissecting Utley's place in World Series history from several different angles.

It looks like Shane Victorino is going to start in Game 6 after his Paul Pierce moment last night. Props to commenter Steve who gave Shane a new nickname today "The cryin' Hawaiian." Jack Moore at FanGraphs tries to determine how much it would hurt (no pun intended!) the Phillies if he had to sit out.

Not an article, but just wanted to point out that Cliff Lee's postseason ERA is no longer lower than Mariano Rivera's and probably never will be again. Ha.

Brett Myers was totally joking with Cole Hamels about saying he quit. I, however, refuse to retract the response I wrote for Hamels earlier.

And finally, on the lighter side of things, Joe Posnanski continues his ABC series which I hope will go on as long as there are mindbendingly stupid advertisements for shitty light beer being shoved down our throats.

A Few More Notes From Last Night

Last night's game ran 5 hours and ten minutes and contained 432 pitches spread out over 108 plate appearances. There's still more to be said about it.

Mariano Rivera was obviously excellent last night but much credit goes to the defense played behind him. Johnny Damon made a nice sliding catch on a looper by Chone Figgins. Mo and A-Rod combined to put 4 hands on a popped up bunt by Jeff Mathis (right) and Cano made a ranging snag for the last out in the 10th inning. Mo doesn't usually need good defense behind him, but when he gets it, say goodnight. He's like Phil Ivey hitting a run of good cards. Ya ain't got a shot.

The Baseball-Reference blog puts Rivera's performance as an "Old man on no rest" in perspective. Mo's the man but he's got nothing on Pete Alexander!

Tango from The Book breaks down the final play of the game mathematically. You probably already knew this, but there was essentially nothing to be gained by trying to get the runner at second (if you assume there was no chance they could have turned a double play).

Craig Calcaterra has some thoughts on the game, with some typical Shyster snark, "It takes longer to give up irrational A-Rod hate than it does to learn to be clutch."

Our pals at Halos Haven were not too happy with Joe Buck or the umps last night. The thing is that the biggest call that went against the Angels was questionable but ultimately correct, unlike the double play that Derek Jeter actually beat out in the sixth inning.

Will Weiss doesn't usually do game recaps for Bronx Banter, but he's got a duesy up over there.

Some random musings from the Yankee Universe.

The obligatory wrap up from LoHud.

And pick which quote doesn't fit into this collection.

Enjoy your football Sunday.

Afternoon Quick Hits

It's Minimal Effort Day here at Fack Youk. It's Friday, we're all just trying to keep our eyes open.

From our graphical/interactive department:

• How many Yankee captains can you name? (via the B-R blog) I got 7/11. If you get either of the first two or the guy between Ruth and Gehrig, I'll be really impressed.
  
  
• Q: How often does the team with the best regular season record win the World Series?
  
  A: Not that often.

Some Yanks vs. Sox links:

• Tony Massarotti breaks down the Yanks vs. Sox season series into three phases and hopes there will be a fourth.
  
  
• Nick Cardafo lists five areas each team needs to address heading into the postseason.
  
  
• PeteAbe surmises that at least one team will be celebrating this weekend. The Post (as always) takes it one step further.
  

Other stuff:

• Octavio Dotel would like to play for the Yankees. Unfortunately for him, the Yanks aren't going to give up a first round draft pick for a 35 year old reliever.
  
  
• Get out your Bunsen Burners and Erlenmeyer flasks, it's time to measure clubhouse chemistry!
  
  
• Here's something new, instead of the Mets getting robbed by their players, now their players are getting robbed.

We'll be back with the preview in a little while.

Dennis Hopper Is Warren Spahn

No, Hopper isn't going to be playing him in an upcoming movie about Spahn's time managing the Tulsa Oilers.

If you are the type who clicks though links on this site then you probably know, Baseball-Reference.com is where I go to get stats. Especially since they redesigned the site before the season started, it's great to work with for basic stats and even more complicated stuff like the Mariano Rivera post I did yesterday.

They also have some fun tools such as The Oracle of Baseball which allows you to play The Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon (which should currently be named for Dennis Hopper) with baseball players. (h/t to the comment thread on the B-R blog post on Tuesday that brought this up.) It makes sense that Bacon wouldn't actually be the most connected actor, since he's relatively young. He's not even close, actually, as he checks in at #507 on the most connected list. Towards the top are guys like Harvey Kietel, Donald Sutherland, David Carradine, Michael Caine and Martin Sheen, all of whom were born in the 1930's and started their acting careers in the 50's or 60's.

The difference between the acting and baseball version of the game however, is that actors have far longer careers and the top of that list consists (mostly) of people who are still alive and forging new connections. There isn't anyone in baseball's top 100 that's even close to active. In baseball, you need someone who came along in what is currently the middle of baseball history (when there were fewer teams and players) and can make quick steps to players from the 19th century as well as the 21st.

That's how Spahn, who got his first call up before WWII and threw his last pitch in 1965 ends up at the top of the heap. With that four game stint in 1942, Spahn was briefly teammates with guys like Ernie Lombardi, Paul Warner and Johnny Cooney on the Boston Braves, all players who were towards the end of long careers which began in the 1920's and weren't around when Spahn was called up in earnest in 1946.

The way Hooks' career ended was also beneficial because after playing with the Milwaukee Braves in 1964, he pitched for both the Mets and the Giants in 1965. On the Braves in '64, he played with a young Joe Torre, Hank Aaron, Felipe Alou, Sandy Alomar, Eddie Matthews and pitched alongside Phil Neikro. With the Giants in '65, he shared the locker room with Matty and Jesus Alou, the Willies Mays and McCovey, Ken Henderson (who's career spanned 18 seasons and 7 franchises) and pitched with Gaylord Perry, Bob Shaw and Juan Marichal. He was with the Mets for Eddie Kranepool's only All-Star campaign, Yogi Berra's final season as a player and Tug McGraw's rookie year but missed Nolan Ryan's Major League debut by just 11 months.

It's hard to tell if Spahn will ever be replaced at the top of his list. He only had 359 teammates, which when compared to Kenny Lofton's 604 or Ron Villone's 595 is not that many, but those more recent guys are 9 steps away from some of the 17,088 players in MLB history while Spahn is 5 steps or fewer from all but 81. Early Wynn, who is second on the list played for longer than Spahn (1939-1963) and had more teammates (408) but comes up just short in terms of connectivity.

It looks like Spahn just had the right combination of longevity and coincidence that allowed him to barely touch different generations at both the beginning and end of his career. It's fitting that the winningest lefty of all time and pitcher in general outside of the Deadball Era would occupy this unique place in baseball history, connecting the past to the present.

[Images via CheckOutMyCards.com]

Good Melky, Bad Melky

While the likely takeaways from yesterday's game were Melky Cabrera's 2 homers, a solo shot in the second, and especially the walk-off in the bottom of the 14th inning...

...Don't forget about this:

In the 7th inning, with the bases loaded and no one out, Melky came to the plate and struck out on four pitches, the last of which was literally at his eyes. Look at what Suzuki had to just to catch that ball. Russ Springer missed his spot by three feet and still got the biggest K of the game. That at-bat would loom large, as the score remained 7-7 until the 14th.

To my eyes, there-in lies the problem with Melky. He goes up to the plate swinging for the fences, and refuses to believe that he's just not a home run hitter. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut on occasion, so there are going to be days like yesterday when he gets lucky and jacks one or two. But by and large this approach is killing his value as an everyday player.

Let's go to the numbers, shall we?

These are the three seasons in which Melky appeared in enough games to analyze the results. There are differences in PA's, but even when you factor those in, the trends are still clear. The darker shaded numbers are the most optimal ones.

From ages 21 (in 2006) to 23, his average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and consequently OPS have all been in decline. He age 21 season was what got most Yankee fans excited about him. Homegrown talent with a strong arm and pretty decent production at the plate for a CF.

While his home runs were consistent throughout all three seasons, Melky's doubles declined drastically. Why would that be? When he takes his home run cut, Cabrera ends up hitting a lot of pop ups. It's the downside of his "all or nothing" approach to hitting.

The last column represents in-field fly balls, and as you can see that percentage jumped significantly (at the 90% confidence level) from '07 to '08. As a result of hitting more pop-ups, his Batting Average On Balls In Play has been on the decline as well, because a much higher percentage of pop flies are converted into outs than any other type of batted ball.

It's been a while since Max Kellerman tried to sell everyone on the notion that Melky was the second coming of Bernie Williams based on their minor league track records and early MLB performance. I don't know too many people who think he can be an everyday player, let alone a batting champion or top 10 MVP candidate anymore. Rob, the sponsor of Melky's Baseball-Reference page said it best:

Oh, what you, Leche, could have been. With only 280 ABs in AAA they wasted all your options before your 24th birthday. Bernie got 468 ABs in AAA and almost two full seasons in AA. Hopefully you find a chance to develop as a hitter.

I suppose for the time being that Melky is a pretty decent fourth outfielder. He has marginal defensive value in CF, but is solid in left and right with a strong arm. That makes him a good choice for a late-inning defensive replacement, and as he showed us yesterday, he's got the potential to make an impact offensively as well. I just don't want anyone to get carried away and say they want to see him starting.