Showing posts with label bad signings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bad signings. Show all posts

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Why Would J.P. Ricciardi Want Everyone Talking About Roy Halladay?

To draw some attention away from this, perhaps?
The Blue Jays have released B.J. Ryan, according to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. The 33-year-old lefty signed a five year $47MM deal with the Jays before the 2006 season that was, at the time, the largest deal ever for a reliever. The contract expires after 2010, but the Jays still owe Ryan about $15MM.
"Hey guys, talk about the best player on my team for a while as I try to sweep a disastrous free agent signing under the rug!"

At the time the Jays signed Ryan to that deal, it was the largest ever to be given to a relief pitcher. He was only 29 years old, but as Joe from RAB mentioned a little while ago, some of the more knowledgeable voices in baseball saw his elbow as a ticking time bomb. Joe goes into more detail about how the market for relievers played out that offseason, with Billy Wagner ending up with the Mets, Ryan signing with the Jays, Tom Gordon going to the Phillies, thereby leaving the Yanks with Kyle Farnsworth.

In 2006, the Jays got even more than they expected, and Ryan was the best of those four relievers by far. He appeared in 65 games (72.1 IP) with a 1.37 ERA (333 ERA+) and a 0.875 WHIP. He gave up only 3HR and while converting 38 saves. The following year, he pitched in 5 games before missing the rest of the season Tommy John surgery. He came back in '08 with a respectable campaign (58 innings, 2.95 ERA, 32 Saves) and appeared to be an effective reliever once again.

This year, however, he fell so far that the Blue Jays paid him $15M just to disappear, conceding any potential value they could get out of him this year or next. He walked 17 in 20 2/3 innings, had an ERA of 6.53 and threw just over 50% of his pitches for strikes. This doesn't appear to be guy who just needs a change of scenery; he might be done for good. By virtue of who he was, though, it's likely that a team will take a flier on Ryan.

Fangraphs estimates that the Jays have got $10.8M out of Ryan's 2006 season, only slightly more than 1/5th of his contract represented ($9.4M). Since then the Jays will have revieved only $1.4M worth of services over the last four years of that contract (including -$0.7M in 2007, -$2.2M this year and nothing in 2010) while paying $38.6M. Ouch.

Praise be to Mo.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Backhanded Complient Of The Day


"When he comes up he is still Gary Sheffield, he is still a presence,"

~ A Mets Official, obviously talking about Gary Sheffield

-----

Yes, he is a "presence". And by presence, I assume he or she means "a ghostly apparition of the hitter he once was". This is pretty much the worst way to evaluate a guy who is 40 years old. "He's still Gary Sheffield!!!"

Riiiight... except that he isn't (the darkest numbers are the highest):

(I took out 2006 because he only appeared in 39 games)
That, my friends, is what you call a trend. Omar, do you need some help with Excel? I am available.

What would give you any indication that he is going to be better this year? Yes, he is going to the National League, but the dimensions of Citi Field do not project to favor right handed hitters. Especially 40 year old ones with rapidly declining bat speed.

For more reasons this is a terrible idea, please see here.

Have Fun With This, Mets Fans...

Joel Sherman says the Mets are close to signing Gary Sheffield:

"Unless something drastic happens, he is a Met," one of the sources said. "Someone would have to offer him a second year, and I just don't see that happening."

One person who has talked directly to Sheffield said the slugger prefers the Mets over the Phillies because he sees a greater potential for playing time, and wants the heavier workload as a way to showcase for the 2010 season. Sheffield is a free agent at the conclusion of this season.
I see no way this could become an issue. He thinks he should be playing over Daniel Murphy who had an .871 OPS in 151 PAs last year and Ryan Church who was at .887 when he went down on June 5th to a concussion. Sheff's OPS in 443 PAs last year? .725

Omar, do you really want to waste valuable plate appearances on this guy over two younger, better players? The Tigers just paid him $14M NOT to play this year. He is 40 years old. He's played 28 games in the outfield over the last two seasons (with negative defensive value). Church and Murphy both have considerable upside and it's not like you have the option of DH'ing the guy. He's already making assumptions about the amount of playing time he is going to get.

It's not too late...