Divisional Realignment Is Not The Answer

As you've likely noticed, even though Spring Training is in full swing, there still isn't an awful lot to talk about just yet. Traditional media always has the "best-shape-of-his-life" or new pitch story lines to fall back on. We've resorted to filling space by making fun of Kevin Youkilis, writing about hockey, or just not writing much at all.

The indefatigable Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports filled his column inches last week with a radical divisional realignment proposal. Beyond the fact that involves Rosenthal, realignment talk is something that gets under my skin. I realize that it's extremely difficult for teams like Baltimore and Toronto to share a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, and play nearly sixty games a year against those three teams thanks to the unbalanced schedule. But rather than making reactionary realignment proposals that would be rendered moot when the balance of power inevitably shifts, there are more fundamental changes that baseball could undertake to level the playing field.

Consider that all else being equal, a team in the AL West has a one in four chance of winning the division, plus a one in fourteen chance of earning the Wild Card spot, for an overall 32.1% chance of reaching the playoffs. Meanwhile, a team in the NL Central has just a one in six chance of winning the division, plus a one in sixteen chance of earning the Wild Card spot, for an overall 22.9% chance of making the playoffs. Sure, the Pirates have been an extremely poorly run franchise for nearly twenty years. But compared to a club in the AL West, they have a nine percent handicap before the first pitch of the season is even thrown.

Beyond the disparity in league and division sizes, certain teams are also at a disadvantage when it comes to the gimmick of interleague play. Given the haphazard rotation of interleague matchups on a yearly basis, some teams luck into a cupcake schedule, while others have a more difficult row to hoe. Additionally, the designation of interleague rivals mean teams get an additional series against a predetermined opponent, usually geography based, regardless of the quality of that opponent. Yet all these things count equally in determining division and Wild Card winners.

The Wild Card presents another problem. All teams in a given league compete for a single Wild Card spot, yet all teams do not play equitable schedules. Aside from the inequities of interleague play, the unbalanced schedule makes it tougher for the second place team in say the AL East to win the Wild Card than it is for the second place team in the AL Central.

Lastly, the fact that division winners are guaranteed playoff spots creates the potential that more deserving teams miss the post-season. Last year, San Francisco, Texas, Florida, and Atlanta finished the regular season with records better than or equal to the Twins and Tigers. While the latter two clubs battled it out in an exciting play in game for the AL Central title, the other four clubs were off making tee times. Similar scenarios have the potential to play out every year. Before the '94 strike, the Rangers were on pace to take the AL West with a sub .500 record.

When divisional play was instituted in 1969, it made sense. Over the course of that decade, both leagues had expanded from eight to twelve teams. The fifty percent increase in size made another post-season berth worthwhile, and splitting the leagues into divisions was a natural way to identify two division champions as the post-season worthy teams. But moving to four playoff spots starting in '94 actually made the divisional system obsolete. Making those divisions unbalanced and awarding a playoff spot to a second place team was a less than ideal way of going about things. As laid out above, there are several systemic disadvantages to that system.

Baseball should do away with divisions. They should do away with interleague play. They should do away with the unbalanced schedule. Go back to the pre-1969 format. No divisions, just two leagues. The top four teams in each league make the playoffs. The top seed plays the number four seed in the first round, no more stupid rules that the Wild Card team can't play a divisional opponent in the Division Series. Having the best record in the league should have a reward, and it should be the path of least resistance to the World Series. Changes like that would do far more to increase competitive balance than changing around the divisions every time the balance of power changes.

Pulling For Joe?

Great news, my fellow baseball fans, our long national (pastime's) nightmare is over. Those were a couple very cold and lonely nights without baseball gracing our television screens. As Yankee fans, we were eased into this break with Game 4 of the Phillies vs. Rockies series on Monday and we'll be eased out of it with Game 1 of the NLCS at 8:07 tonight.

You may be familiar with the manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers - his name is Joe Torre. He worked for the Yankees for a couple of nondescript years in a low profile position a while back. Anyway, Peter Gammons was on Michael Kay's radio show yesterday and insinuated that Mr. Torre, despite his affinity for wheatgrass, is not enjoying his time in the City of Angels (link via BBTF):

Kay asked Gammons if he agreed that Joe Torre would only stay on as the Dodgers' manager through the 2010 season, when his contract ends.

"Yes, I do buy that," said Gammons. " ... I wouldn't be surprised and I think a lot of things will probably come out here in the next few months but I think (Torre's) life with the Dodgers is pretty much a living hell."

Kay: "Really!?"

Gammons: "Oh, yeah."

Kay: "So he thought he had it bad in New York and it's worse there?"

Gammons: "Oh, yeah ... Oh, yeah. There'll be a lot that comes out in time with Dodger ownership, but that is a mess [link added], and I don't think anyone wants to have to put up with it too long."

This may give some of you a bit of satisfaction since the reason that Torre ended up in LA in the first place was because he was "insulted" by an offer from the Yankees that would have made his the highest paying manager in the Major Leagues before any of the incentives involved with the deal kicked in. Or others who thought it was a little hypocritical to compare Michael Kay to Rhona Barrett to gain respect from his players when he first arrived on the scene and then write a tell-all book with Tom Verducci called "The Yankee Years" after he left.

Torre responded to comments, sounding a bit like your ex-girlfriend who broke up with you only to find out that what you had wasn't so bad, saying, “My relationship is fine here”and forcing a smile.

I never held it against Torre that he turned down the Yankees offer, probably because I thought it was time for a new manager anyway. My old roommate and I were actually at Mickey Mantle's on Central Park South the day that he flew down to Tampa to inform the Yanks of his decision. We were interviewed by one of the local news stations who sent a crew to the bar and I said something about it being "time to turn over the chain of command to someone a bit younger who can handle the pitching staff better" or something like that, except even more unintelligible since it was in front of the camera.

Oddly enough, Torre is now being lauded for his bullpen management after he brought in his closer, Jonathan Broxton in the 8th inning to face the heart of the Cardinals' order despite being down a run. Torre knew that Broxton would likely have to be removed for a pinch hitter if the Dodgers got anyone on base in the home half of the inning (which they did), but he still chose his best pitcher for the highest leverage situation, something that sabermetricians have been suggesting for years. Pretty crazy, huh?

Are you rooting for the Dodgers in this series? I don't think there's an appreciable difference in match-ups should the Yankees fulfill their end of the bargain which would be the first consideration, so it probably just comes down to preference. I'll admit that last year, since the Yanks did terribly, I wanted the Dodgers to get bounced as early as possible so that Torre's decision to spurn the Yanks wouldn't be vindicated (by the media anyway).

This year? Not so much. When you're happy with your own situation, it's a lot easier to pull for others.

[Update: Awesome gallery of old school Torre from Big League Stew]

Game 163: Find Out

It's not a Yankees game, but I thought I'd put together a preview for the match up between the Twins and Tigers taking place at 5:00. Yes, folks, 5:00. A lot of you will probably be stuck at work for the first few innings and it's not going to carry the night like a typical 7:00 game would, but it should be entertaining nonetheless.

The Tigers have completely backed themselves into this position after taking 2 out of 4 head to head games against the Twins which most everyone assumed would be enough to secure the AL Central. It was not, however, as the lost two out of their last three to the White Sox and the Twins swept from the Royals. Denard Span doesn't want to say the Tigers choked, but well, he kind of did.

The Tigers take the field under the dark cloud of Miguel Cabrera's domestic incident that some are saying should lead to his suspension for the rest of the season. Other, more rational people are saying that the Tigers already knew about this incident on Saturday and let him play anyway, and if they bench him now, it will only be for PR purposes. As a Yankee fan, I hope they let him play in tonight's game, have him contribute to a Tigers' win, and then suspend him for the postseason. Am I right?

Tonight may also be the last game at the Metrodome unless the Twins, their homer hankies and the baggy have anything to say about that. Joe Posnanski compares the building roundly-despised disgrace to baseball to a movie villain who just won't die. Curtis Granderson had already bid it adieu last month. I had hoped the Yankees would never have to play there again but now there a relative coin flip will determine if that is the case. Rob Neyer thinks it might be better than that. David Pinto seconds that motion, as does the betting line, Baseball Prospectus and Cool Standings so what do I know?

The bottom line for our purposes, which FanGraphs reaffirmed and we Yankee bloggers have been saying for a while now is that either way, game #163 is good news for the Bombers. Whoever wins is going to have a plane sitting on the runway, ready to sweep them off to New York where the Yanks will be waiting, after working through a leisurely day of meetings and workouts.

The second ever inductee of the Fack Youk Hall of Fame, Rick Porcello starts for the Tigers tonight. While Neyer points out that he has only struck out 10 batters over his last 33 innings (and 3 over his last 17 1/3), Porcello has a 3.00 ERA over his last 7 starts. He held the Twins to one run over 6 1/3 innings exactly one week ago, but that could work against him since the hitters have seen him recently.

Scott Baker will take the Twins playoff lives into his hands this evening. Baker faced the Tigers last Thursday and held them to 1 unearned run over 5 innings but needed 106 pitches to make it through those 15 outs. He'd been unimpressive in his 4 starts before that though, giving up 14 runs in 23 innings (5.48 ERA).

Tonight should be fun to watch. The Yankees get the chance to play emperor and spectate while these two teams fight 'til the death, awaiting the winner. Whichever way it goes, it will be good to finally find out who the Yanks' first round opponent will be.

[Minnesota is basically Canada, so it's time for everyone's (well, my) favorite Canadian rapper, Classified...]

(You gonna find out)
Sooner or later,
(You gonna find out)
Are you ready for this?
(You gonna find out)
Tell 'em who it is...

Game 161: Over The Hills And Far Away

Down at Tropicana Field, Andy Pettitte will get his final tune up for the postseason. Jorge Posada is catching today, and since tomorrow is a day game after a night game, Jose Molina will be behind the dish for A.J. Burnett once again. Joe from RAB brought up the possibility eariler today and Steve at The Yankee Universe looked a little deeper into the topic. Surely some people will object to taking Jorge out of the line up but he and Burnett don't seem to be on the same page very often. It's one game, and a potential bad outing out of Burnett is going to do a lot more to hurt the Yanks' chances than a good night for Posada at the plate, not to mention the advantage Molina has in controlling the running game.

Jeff Neimann goes for the Rays tonight. He was dominant against the Yankees last time he faced them, going 7 innings and allowing one run while striking out 8 and walking only one batter. He'll be up against a softer Yankees lineup this time, though. Derek Jeter and A-Rod get the night off while Jerry Hairston and Eric Hinske take their places. Brett Gardner will man CF as Melky will start the night on the bench.

Perhaps more interesting than what goes on with the Yankees, however, are the outcomes of the Twins and Tigers games taking place up around Lake Michgan.

The Twins started at 4 and are currently leading the Royals 4-1. Nick Blackburn to his credit has pitched awfully well against Zack Greinke, who had held the Twins scoreless until Joe Mauer singled across a run with two outs in the 6th. Delmon Young then hit a bases-clearing double to put the Twins up by 4. Mike Jacobs then countered with a HR for the Royals. [Update 6:15: Alex Gordon just hit a 2 run shot to make it 4-3] [6:23: The game is tied at 4 as the Royals score another run on a double play] [6:30: Cuddyer jacks one to put the Twins back on top 5-4] [Update 6:44: Joe Nathan shuts it down, Twins win.]

Freddy Garcia goes for the White Sox against Alfredo Figaro and the Tigers in a 7:00 start in Detriot. If the Twins hang on to win, the AL Central will still be undetermined going into the last day of the season. That would mean that Justin Verlander will have to start tomorrow, pushing his start in the ALDS back to Game 2. Unless of course the Twins come all the way back to tie the division, we could be on our way to the crazy play-in game scenario that Matt brought up on Wednesday.

There are still some pieces of the playoff picture yet to fall into place but they aren't going to be determined down in Tampa Bay.

Many is a word that only leaves you guessin',
Guessin' 'bout a thing you really ought to know.
You really ought to know.
I really ought to know.

Get Ready To Yearn For Michael Kay

We Yankee fans are tough to please. We expect a successful team, we pointed out every flaw in the billion dollar palace they just erected, we chronicled all the wasted space on our 40 man roster, and constantly question how our manager uses the bullpen although he's got great results.

We also complain a lot about our announcers, when in the grand scheme of things, they aren't that bad, as those who have the DirecTV Extra Innings package like my buddy Cliff can tell you. John Sterling, Suzyn Waldman and especially Michael Kay are endlessly scrutinized but it's to be expected since they are in our ear for a good 500 hours a year, unless you listen to Kay's radio show, in which case that number expands to approximately 6,000.

As you probably already know, these last three games in Tampa will be the last we hear of Michael and his signature play-by-play stylings - aside from Yankees Classics and highlight bits on YES - until next Spring. While that might seem like a good thing at first glance, it means that we are going to be stuck with national broadcasters for the rest of the way; guys who haven't followed the team all year and probably aren't going to tell you much you don't already know.

I linked to the playoff announcing schedule yesterday, but wanted to save by anti-Chip Carey rant for another post.

The 2007 postseason were the first national games that TBS had broadcast rights to. As such, it was the first time that Chit Carry had called a Yankee game... and it showed. It was so bad, Richard Sandomir cataloged Carrey's numerous factual errors one by one and wondered in print, "Why isn’t he better prepared?".

It's been two years since that debacle, so you'd think that Chop might have learned a few things in the meantime. Not so much. Here are some comments he made about A.J. Burnett during a media conference call yesterday, (via LoHud):

When he’s on, he’s unhittable. He has a slider that when he throws it where he wants, no one can hit it. The key for him is, he’s kind of an excitable boy. Sometimes that works in his advantage, sometimes I think it works against him. Getting in charge of his emotion will be key. He’s brought a lot of levity to that team. The Yankees were always a team that seemed more like IBM than Apple.

I'm all for referencing Warren Zevon but I don't think Kip Scary would want to call A.J. Burnett an "excitable boy" to his face. And please spare us your dumb analogies and stick to the script, Chep. You're paid to be the play-by-play guy, not to take veiled shots at the Yankees for spending a lot of money. It's no secret that Carray, the son of the legendary Cubs broadcaster, is a fan of National League baseball and not fond of the Yanks and their free-spending, power-hitting ways.

And Chap, Burnett doesn't throw a slider. No one has ever called it a slider. Pitch f/x does not call it a slider. It's a curveball.

Oh wait. What's that? It's Chip? Chip Caray? And he's the grandson of Harry Caray? And that was Ron Darling who was being quoted? Oh, my bad. I guess I should have done some research before going up with the post.

Postseason Tickets Aren't Selling For Face Value?!?!?

Ken Belson of the NYT Bats Blog seems genuinely surprised, if not appalled that you won't be able to buy Yankees playoff tickets for $5.

The Yankees made a big deal out of their decision to hold ticket prices steady for the first round of the playoffs. That’s right, even those $5 seats in the center-field bleachers with obstructed views of the field would remain $5 when the Yankees play either the Detroit Tigers or the Minnesota Twins next week.

But unless you are a season ticket-holder, forget about that $5 price. Fans selling those bleacher seats on line are charging no less than $98 each for a chance to see about two-thirds of the field, according to FanSnap, a Web site that scans dozens of ticket resellers.

Raise your hand if you were counting on purchasing a Yankees playoff ticket for $5. Okay, now keep it in the air, clench your fingers into a fist and punch yourself in the face.

The Yankees made a big deal of the pricing structure for the P.R. boost after all the negative press over their ticket pricing for the regular season. This year, as has been the case ever since the Yanks went on their dynastic run, there only a precious few postseason tickets available to the general public. A few weeks back, Ross from New Stadium Insider did some quick calculations and estimated the amount of available tickets for each round of the postseason to be:

ALDS: 4,735
ALCS: 3,235
WS: 735

It doesn't take a mathematician to decipher that, unless you are a season ticket holder, you are going to be paying through to nose to observe some playoff baseball in the Bronx.

Game 155: Guilty Until Proven Innocent

With the magic number for the Yankees to clinch the AL East and the one for the Red Sox to secure a playoff spot both sitting at 3, last night the Yanks took an important step towards preventing the Sox from sullying the visitor's clubhouse with celebratory champagne. With the Rangers' win last night, the Yankees can ensure that the Sox don't pop the bubbly at the New Stadium with two more victories and in the process, wrap up the division for themselves. The Yanks seem to be taking that apporach seriously, as they trot out the "A" line up again, including catching Jorge Posada in a (late) day game after a night game. [UPDATE 2:53 P.M.: According to LoHud, Posada has been scratched with a stiff neck. It's been bothering him since the Jesse Carlson incident nearly two weeks ago]

Unlike last night, the starter climbing the mound for the Red Sox is the one with something to prove. Daisuke Matsuzaka has managed to generate a lot of buzz during the two starts he's made since emerging from his exile in Fort Myers but objective observers still have some questions as to whether he's really "back and better than ever".

His first start was quite excellent but his last one against the Orioles was a lot closer to the old Dice-K: decent results but inefficient with his pitches. He threw 110 of them over 5 1/3 innings, allowing 8 hits and three runs. He walked away with the win, but the myth of the new and improved Matsuzaka took a bit of a hit down in Baltimore.

For whatever reason, Matsuzaka is being discussed as a "weapon" in the postseason, but CC Sabathia is considered more of a liability. CC is 8-0 in his last 10 starts dating back to the beginning of August and the Yankees have won every single one of those games. Over that time he has an ERA of 2.24 and struck out 77 while giving up just 55 hits and walking only 17. You'd think that that people might be making a bigger deal out of this. After all, he just signed a monster contract this offseason and plays for the best team in baseball.

However, just like Zack Greinke's terrible team makes it harder for his great season to be recognized, the fact the the Yankees have already pulled away from the pack means that Sabathia's great stretch gets largely swept under the rug because it doesn't appear to factor into the playoff race either. The problem with this logic is that if CC was pitching poorly, his team would be a whole lot closer to the pack.

Part of the equation is that Sabathia is as pure of a late-season pitcher as there is in the game. His career ERA in September and October regular season games is 2.67 and his next closest month is August at 3.14. His ERA in all other months is 4.01. Maybe writers feel like they've heard the story before. But more likely, it seems that they want to talk about his lack of success in the 5 starts he's made in the postseason. It seems he's a choker until proven clutch; guilty until proven innocent.

Look in my eyes dog, right in my pupils
If I'm your rival, why would I have to do you?
Press try to throw dirt on my name, disturbin' my game,
Seemed happy when they heard he was arraigned.

"The Yankees Are Doomed"

Like we were anticipating, there has been an bloom of ignorant Yankees articles and blog posts of late foreshadowing their postseason demise, and since I don't have anything better to write about, here we go again.

This one comes from a writer who thinks he is blogging because he posts the first thought that comes to his mind on a website. I guess no one ever told Jeff Pearlman that even though it's a "blog" you probably should still be concerned with "reality" and attempt to do some "research" instead of spouting off pitching clichés that Walter Johnson would probably think were outdated and citing irrelevant facts that tenuously fit your argument.

(Headline:) The Yankees are doomed

OK, maybe doomed is too strong.

Then you probably should have changed the headline, huh? You didn't write this on a typewriter, did you?

But, once again, I don’t think Brian Cashman has built a team made for the playoffs. Mainly, the problem is pitching. Starting pitching.

You're right. What the fuck was Brian Cashman thinking when he acquired the two best starting pitchers on the market this offseason and brought back a solid veteran lefty in Andy Pettitte? What a collection of terrible moves that was!

As the Atlanta Braves showed us throughout the 1990s, having a load of B+ starting pitchers is fantastic for 90-plus regular season wins … but doesn’t really work so well in the post-season. Generally speaking, the teams in the best shape have two ass-kicking starters with rubber arms and angry demeanors (think Johnson-Schilling, ‘01).

That's one team. Do you have any other examples? I have one, the 2002 Diamondbacks. Same two guys... how did that work out for them? Oh yeah, they got swept in the NLDS.

In '98, the Yanks best two starters were Cone and Pettitte, not exactly "angry". In '99 & '00, The Yanks were exactly the Braves teams Jeff is talking about, with a bunch of B+ starters and no real standout "ass-kickers". In fact, in 2000, only Clemens had an ERA under 4.00 and their 4th starter was Denny Neagle in October.

How about 2002? The Angels started Jarrod Washburn, Kevin Appier, Ramon Ortiz and John Lackey. Any ass-kickers in there? And 2003? The Marlins had Josh Beckett and Brad Penny, only one of those guys is perceived as "angry" and neither is "rubber-armed".

Schilling and Pedro in '04? Okay, sure. That's two in the last 10 years.

In 2005, the Astros were the ones with Clemens and Oswalt, but they get smashed by the White Sox. Chris Carpenter and Jeff Weaver were the best pitchers for the Cardinals in the '06 WS. Beckett was around again in '07 but by all accounts, Jon Lester pretty mild mannered. Brett Myers beats his wife, but Cole Hamels posed with his lady in these ads with kids that he doesn't even have. He's no ass-kicker.

Or he could have just said, "Generally speaking, the more good pitchers a team has, the better shape they are in".

Okay, so I just spent way too long parsing one offhanded remark, but there's more dumbassery, I promise.

CC Sabathia: Great starter. Elite starter. Worth the big bucks thus far—but in five postseason games with Cleveland and Milwaukee, the man has a 7.92 ERA over five starts. Please, read that again—

Five starts?

...seven point nine two.

Oh. The part that can be dismissed as an extremely small sample size.

Can he be masterful? Of course. Will he be? Seems sort of unlikely.

That's some strong language, Jeff. They're DOOMED!

A.J. Burnett: I’d argue (as would many) that, come playoff time, Burnett has the chance to be New York’s stud. He still throws extremely hard, still possesses lightning stuff—plus, he’s already won a World Series with the 2003 Marlins.

Yes, he "won" a World Series with the Marlins in 2003, the year in which he made a grand total of four starts before getting Tommy John surgery and missing the rest of the year, including the postseason. Extremely relevant... the guy knows how to win!

Joba Chamberlain: [...] I mean, seriously, what they’ve done to this kid is, in a baseball sense, criminal. If I’m a Yankees fan, and it’s Game 7, do I want Jona[sic] or Phil Hughes starting?

Me, I take Hughes.

You'd take Hughes, the guy who has been in the bullpen since June and before that had a 5.45 ERA as a starter? So you'd somehow stretch him out in the major leagues over the last 11 games from a one or two inning pitcher and have him make a start in the postseason? If you were a Yankee fan, or knew anything about the team, you'd be choosing Chad Gaudin over Joba because he's the only other viable option.

Calm Before The Storm

The next two series for the Yankees, separated by yet another off day Thursday, should serve as a nice tune up for the postseason and will represent the last meaningful games before the playoffs begin. During this six game stretch, the Yanks will certainly clinch a playoff berth but can go a long way towards securing the division and home field advantage as well.

The Yanks would have to falter badly while one of the other teams gets extremely hot to lose HFA or the AL East. If the Yanks go 5-7 over their final 12, the Red Sox would have to go 11-3 just to tie them and the Angels 11-2. Keep in mind that the Yanks have 3 games against the Royals and 3 against the Rays mixed in there as well.

So even though the Yanks just went 3-5 against the Orioles, Blue Jays and Mariners, and Pettitte is hurt and Joba sucks and Mo blew a save and Ian Snell just shut down the offense... let's try not to hit the panic button.

Expect both the series in Anaheim as well as the one in the Bronx against the Red Sox to extrapolated to predict the Yankees' success or failure in the postseason. There will be much talk about "playoff atmosphere" and possibly "must-win" games. Plenty will be said about the Yanks ability to get it done in the clutch and judgments will be made about whether or not they can get it done under pressure.

In reality, the outcome of these games has hardly any predictive value in looking towards the playoffs. Did the 8 consecutive games that the Red Sox won against the Yankees to begin the season do a very good job of predicting the Yankees sweep of them in early August? Then why would they dynamic change when the playoffs roll around? Answer: It doesn't, it's just a function of the media attempting to take the temperature of the team after every game in order to foreshadow what's going to happen when the games really matter.

Right now, teams are playing with house money and expanded rosters and as we know all too well, anything can happen in October. So whatever happens over the next six games, let's try to keep things in perspective.

Bud Selig For A Day

Jason at It Is About The Money, Stupid was kind enough to guest-post our suggestion for what to do if we were commissioner of Major League Baseball for a day. It includes a little of our email exchange that led up to the post.

He originally asked me to write a few sentences, I obliged, and then asked if he had any edits or suggestions. He offered some direction, I asked Will and Cliff for some input, and pretty soon the offering was almost 400 words. Check it out if you get a chance, and I'll re-post it here later on, just for the record.

Check out Jason's blog in general, too. (Not just because he was the first person to link to us). He's a Yankees guy, but always has a unique and objective take on tough issues like Stadium financing and other stuff throughout the league.