As you've likely noticed, even though Spring Training is in full swing, there still isn't an awful lot to talk about just yet. Traditional media always has the "best-shape-of-his-life" or new pitch story lines to fall back on. We've resorted to filling space by making fun of Kevin Youkilis, writing about hockey, or just not writing much at all.
The indefatigable Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports filled his column inches last week with a radical divisional realignment proposal. Beyond the fact that involves Rosenthal, realignment talk is something that gets under my skin. I realize that it's extremely difficult for teams like Baltimore and Toronto to share a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, and play nearly sixty games a year against those three teams thanks to the unbalanced schedule. But rather than making reactionary realignment proposals that would be rendered moot when the balance of power inevitably shifts, there are more fundamental changes that baseball could undertake to level the playing field.
Consider that all else being equal, a team in the AL West has a one in four chance of winning the division, plus a one in fourteen chance of earning the Wild Card spot, for an overall 32.1% chance of reaching the playoffs. Meanwhile, a team in the NL Central has just a one in six chance of winning the division, plus a one in sixteen chance of earning the Wild Card spot, for an overall 22.9% chance of making the playoffs. Sure, the Pirates have been an extremely poorly run franchise for nearly twenty years. But compared to a club in the AL West, they have a nine percent handicap before the first pitch of the season is even thrown.
Beyond the disparity in league and division sizes, certain teams are also at a disadvantage when it comes to the gimmick of interleague play. Given the haphazard rotation of interleague matchups on a yearly basis, some teams luck into a cupcake schedule, while others have a more difficult row to hoe. Additionally, the designation of interleague rivals mean teams get an additional series against a predetermined opponent, usually geography based, regardless of the quality of that opponent. Yet all these things count equally in determining division and Wild Card winners.
The Wild Card presents another problem. All teams in a given league compete for a single Wild Card spot, yet all teams do not play equitable schedules. Aside from the inequities of interleague play, the unbalanced schedule makes it tougher for the second place team in say the AL East to win the Wild Card than it is for the second place team in the AL Central.
Lastly, the fact that division winners are guaranteed playoff spots creates the potential that more deserving teams miss the post-season. Last year, San Francisco, Texas, Florida, and Atlanta finished the regular season with records better than or equal to the Twins and Tigers. While the latter two clubs battled it out in an exciting play in game for the AL Central title, the other four clubs were off making tee times. Similar scenarios have the potential to play out every year. Before the '94 strike, the Rangers were on pace to take the AL West with a sub .500 record.
When divisional play was instituted in 1969, it made sense. Over the course of that decade, both leagues had expanded from eight to twelve teams. The fifty percent increase in size made another post-season berth worthwhile, and splitting the leagues into divisions was a natural way to identify two division champions as the post-season worthy teams. But moving to four playoff spots starting in '94 actually made the divisional system obsolete. Making those divisions unbalanced and awarding a playoff spot to a second place team was a less than ideal way of going about things. As laid out above, there are several systemic disadvantages to that system.
Baseball should do away with divisions. They should do away with interleague play. They should do away with the unbalanced schedule. Go back to the pre-1969 format. No divisions, just two leagues. The top four teams in each league make the playoffs. The top seed plays the number four seed in the first round, no more stupid rules that the Wild Card team can't play a divisional opponent in the Division Series. Having the best record in the league should have a reward, and it should be the path of least resistance to the World Series. Changes like that would do far more to increase competitive balance than changing around the divisions every time the balance of power changes.
The indefatigable Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports filled his column inches last week with a radical divisional realignment proposal. Beyond the fact that involves Rosenthal, realignment talk is something that gets under my skin. I realize that it's extremely difficult for teams like Baltimore and Toronto to share a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, and play nearly sixty games a year against those three teams thanks to the unbalanced schedule. But rather than making reactionary realignment proposals that would be rendered moot when the balance of power inevitably shifts, there are more fundamental changes that baseball could undertake to level the playing field.
Consider that all else being equal, a team in the AL West has a one in four chance of winning the division, plus a one in fourteen chance of earning the Wild Card spot, for an overall 32.1% chance of reaching the playoffs. Meanwhile, a team in the NL Central has just a one in six chance of winning the division, plus a one in sixteen chance of earning the Wild Card spot, for an overall 22.9% chance of making the playoffs. Sure, the Pirates have been an extremely poorly run franchise for nearly twenty years. But compared to a club in the AL West, they have a nine percent handicap before the first pitch of the season is even thrown.
Beyond the disparity in league and division sizes, certain teams are also at a disadvantage when it comes to the gimmick of interleague play. Given the haphazard rotation of interleague matchups on a yearly basis, some teams luck into a cupcake schedule, while others have a more difficult row to hoe. Additionally, the designation of interleague rivals mean teams get an additional series against a predetermined opponent, usually geography based, regardless of the quality of that opponent. Yet all these things count equally in determining division and Wild Card winners.The Wild Card presents another problem. All teams in a given league compete for a single Wild Card spot, yet all teams do not play equitable schedules. Aside from the inequities of interleague play, the unbalanced schedule makes it tougher for the second place team in say the AL East to win the Wild Card than it is for the second place team in the AL Central.
Lastly, the fact that division winners are guaranteed playoff spots creates the potential that more deserving teams miss the post-season. Last year, San Francisco, Texas, Florida, and Atlanta finished the regular season with records better than or equal to the Twins and Tigers. While the latter two clubs battled it out in an exciting play in game for the AL Central title, the other four clubs were off making tee times. Similar scenarios have the potential to play out every year. Before the '94 strike, the Rangers were on pace to take the AL West with a sub .500 record.
When divisional play was instituted in 1969, it made sense. Over the course of that decade, both leagues had expanded from eight to twelve teams. The fifty percent increase in size made another post-season berth worthwhile, and splitting the leagues into divisions was a natural way to identify two division champions as the post-season worthy teams. But moving to four playoff spots starting in '94 actually made the divisional system obsolete. Making those divisions unbalanced and awarding a playoff spot to a second place team was a less than ideal way of going about things. As laid out above, there are several systemic disadvantages to that system.
Baseball should do away with divisions. They should do away with interleague play. They should do away with the unbalanced schedule. Go back to the pre-1969 format. No divisions, just two leagues. The top four teams in each league make the playoffs. The top seed plays the number four seed in the first round, no more stupid rules that the Wild Card team can't play a divisional opponent in the Division Series. Having the best record in the league should have a reward, and it should be the path of least resistance to the World Series. Changes like that would do far more to increase competitive balance than changing around the divisions every time the balance of power changes.
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