Game 44: Between The Lines

The Yankees' current struggles can be traced back to their series with the Tigers that started two Mondays ago, but the heartbreaking loss they suffered at the hands of the Twins last Saturday began a shorter but much more ugly stretch. The Yanks were poised to sweep the Twinkies for the fourth straight time (including last year's ALDS) but Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera couldn't nail down the final 6 outs without surrendering a two run lead.

Including that game, the Yanks, thanks to a combination of more bullpen implosions, poor starting pitching and the inability to get runners in from third with less than two outs or hit with them in scoring position in general, have dropped six of eight. While the team evaded the slow start that plagued them in recent years, the last two weeks have erased much of the cushion they built up in their first 30 or so games.

And because the team has been losing, players whose struggles had been camouflaged by the team's winning ways are now being spotlighted. Rivera's hiccups, A-Rod's lack of home runs, Derek Jeter's supposedly declining defense, CC Sabathia's rough patch, Brett Garnder's recent skid, and of course, Mark Teixeira's continued struggles have all been splayed out across the interwebz in recent days.

One of those stories could have been (and probably was) written about A.J. Burnett. After sporting an earned run average of 1.99 through his first seven stats, Burnett has given up 18 runs over his last three outings (17 2/3 IP) and seen his ERA nearly double. Over that time he's given up 25 hits, walked 11 and struck out 12, and thrown 55% of his pitches for strikes. During his strong start, he was allowing just over a hit per inning, striking out twice as many as he walked and throwing 60% strikes.

If there's one positive that can be taken from Burnett's last three outings it's that the best one of the them (6.2 IP, 3R) came against Minnesota. As it will be tonight, Burnett's opponent in that game was Scott Baker.

The 28 year old right hander has thrown a couple of gems this year and because he can get batters to whiff, hardly walks them and doesn't give up too many home runs, his FIP is a solid 3.72. However, his ERA of 4.88 indicates that he just hasn't been able to put together quality outings on a consistent basis.

Last Friday, the Yanks touched up Baker for five runs in six innings en route to a 8-4 victory - their second in a row over the Twins. At that time it appeared that the Yanks had put the tough series against Detroit behind them, only to spiral out of control in the ensuing eight games. When they get back between the lines this evening after a much needed day off, they'll have a chance to right the ship with another Burnett vs. Baker matchup.

Road trips, turn to head trips,
Became a hunger for sedatives and essentric etiquette,
Optimism needs to feed off self-esteem,
But it seems as if he doesn't see it or hasn't felt a thing.

[Song Notes: Atmosphere is a Minnesota-based hip hop group that I use for these previews quite a bit, so it's only appropriate that I bust one of their songs out when the Yanks are in the Twin cities.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
Matt here with the lineup. Tex gets another half day off, unfortunately it's not the half that's brutally struggling right now. Francisco Cervelli makes his eighth consecutive start behind the plate. And, even with a right hander on the mound, Kevin Russo gets the start in left field.

Derek Jeter SS
Brett Gardner CF
Mark Teixeira DH
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Juan Miranda 1B
Francisco Cervelli C
Kevin Russo LF

Twins:

Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Michael Cuddyer RF
Jason Kubel DH
Delmon Young LF
J.J. Hardy SS
Brendan Harris 3B

Game 35: Twenty Five Miles

One day short of one year ago, the Minnesota Twins came into New York for a four game wrap-around weekend series. The Yankees swept, winning the first three games via walkoff. The team had already registered two walkoff wins prior to the start of that series, but the triplet against the Twins was what began to make 2009 the year of the walkoff. It was in the second game of that series, won by an eleventh inning Alex Rodriguez home run, that A.J. Burnett delivered his first pie in the face of 2009. He followed that up with another the next day, when Johnny Damon hit a tenth inning homer to win a game that Burnett had started. A tradition was born.

After taking the fourth game of that series (in non-walkoff) fashion, the teams didn't meet again until a three game series in Minnesota in July. The Yankees swept that series as well, with Burnett getting the win in the middle game. But by virtue of being on the road, there were no walkoffs.

And of course the teams met again in the ALDS, and again, the Yankees swept. The final meeting at Yankee Stadium took place in Game Two, started by A.J. Burnett and ended by a Mark Teixeira walkoff home run in the eleventh inning. All told, the clubs met ten times last year and the Yankees won all ten games, four of them via walkoff.

A.J. Burnett gets the ball for the Yankees tonight, as they open a three game weekend series against the Twins. He was stone wild last year, leading the American League in both walks and wild pitches. This year is a different story, as Burnett's 2010 walk rate sits at just 2.8 per nine innings, 1.4 walks per nine lower than it was last year, and just 0.2 walks per nine greater than his career best of 2.6 walks per nine in 2006. Burnett may have a little more difficulty keeping the walks down tonight. Entering play today the Twins rank third in MLB in both walks (147) and walk rate (10.9%), up from being twelfth in both categories last year.

The Yankees are one of the two teams ahead of the Twins in both walks and walk rate, ranking second to Atlanta in both categories. But they're going to have their work cut out for them tonight if they want to get their free passes. Minnesota starter Scott Baker has a walk rate of just 2.1 per nine through his first 696 Major League innings. He ranked seventh in the AL in BB/9 last year, is currently eighth in the AL this year, and would have been amongst the league leaders in each of his first four seasons had he pitched enough innings to qualify. Since his debut in 2005, Baker ranks twelfth in walk rate amongst all pitchers with at least 696 IP.

After registering fifteen walkoff wins in 2009, the Yankees have yet to have one in 2010. But with four walkoffs in six chances against the Twins last year, perhaps this series will offer the Yankees first walkoff of the season. These two clubs are the two most walk happy in the AL this year, but one may lose their stride tonight since the starters have been so stingy with the base on balls. So what's it going to be: Walkoff or walk on?

I got to keep on walkin'
I got to walk on oh ho ho
I, I, I, I, I'm so tired but I just can't lose my stride
Walk on let me tell you ya'll
I, I, I, I, I, I'm so tired
But I just can't lose my stride

[Song notes: The Yankees may have left Motown yesterday, but I'm still in a Motown Records state of mind. Of course, Edwin Starr's most appropriate baseball song might just be "War", but that meme's been used so many times before.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
One roster note: the Yankees have released Christian Garcia. The talented but perpetually injured pitcher left his first start of the year with pain in his elbow, and has since undergone his second career Tommy John Surgery. With the open roster spot, the club has claimed pitcher Shane Lindsay on waivers from Colorado. This might not ever come into play, but the club has forfeited some roster flexibility with this move. Garcia's season ending surgery made him a 60 day DL candidate waiting to happen. Calling Garcia up and placing him on the DL would have opened a 40 man spot in the event the Yankees needed it later in the year. They no longer have that option, but they must see enough in the Australian Lindsay to feel comfortable giving up that flexibility.

Given Garcia's injury history, it's no sure bet that another organization snatches him up. He may end up back in the Yankees system, much like oft-injured Humberto Sanchez did after he was DFA'd following the 2008 season.

Derek Jeter, slump, sore pinky and all, remains in the lineup. Nick Swisher and his sore bicep return after a one day absence. Brett Gardner remains in the two spot; with Jorge Posada getting the night off the club prefers keeping Swisher's power in the middle of the order. With a righty on the mound Juan Miranda gets the nod as the DH, but interestingly Marcus Thames starts in left field.

Derek Jeter SS
Brett Gardner CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Marcus Thames LF
Juan Miranda DH
Francisco Cervelli C

Twins:

Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Michael Cuddyer RF
Jason Kubel DH
Delmon Young LF
Alexi Casilla SS
Nick Punto 3B

Game 163: Find Out

It's not a Yankees game, but I thought I'd put together a preview for the match up between the Twins and Tigers taking place at 5:00. Yes, folks, 5:00. A lot of you will probably be stuck at work for the first few innings and it's not going to carry the night like a typical 7:00 game would, but it should be entertaining nonetheless.

The Tigers have completely backed themselves into this position after taking 2 out of 4 head to head games against the Twins which most everyone assumed would be enough to secure the AL Central. It was not, however, as the lost two out of their last three to the White Sox and the Twins swept from the Royals. Denard Span doesn't want to say the Tigers choked, but well, he kind of did.

The Tigers take the field under the dark cloud of Miguel Cabrera's domestic incident that some are saying should lead to his suspension for the rest of the season. Other, more rational people are saying that the Tigers already knew about this incident on Saturday and let him play anyway, and if they bench him now, it will only be for PR purposes. As a Yankee fan, I hope they let him play in tonight's game, have him contribute to a Tigers' win, and then suspend him for the postseason. Am I right?

Tonight may also be the last game at the Metrodome unless the Twins, their homer hankies and the baggy have anything to say about that. Joe Posnanski compares the building roundly-despised disgrace to baseball to a movie villain who just won't die. Curtis Granderson had already bid it adieu last month. I had hoped the Yankees would never have to play there again but now there a relative coin flip will determine if that is the case. Rob Neyer thinks it might be better than that. David Pinto seconds that motion, as does the betting line, Baseball Prospectus and Cool Standings so what do I know?

The bottom line for our purposes, which FanGraphs reaffirmed and we Yankee bloggers have been saying for a while now is that either way, game #163 is good news for the Bombers. Whoever wins is going to have a plane sitting on the runway, ready to sweep them off to New York where the Yanks will be waiting, after working through a leisurely day of meetings and workouts.

The second ever inductee of the Fack Youk Hall of Fame, Rick Porcello starts for the Tigers tonight. While Neyer points out that he has only struck out 10 batters over his last 33 innings (and 3 over his last 17 1/3), Porcello has a 3.00 ERA over his last 7 starts. He held the Twins to one run over 6 1/3 innings exactly one week ago, but that could work against him since the hitters have seen him recently.

Scott Baker will take the Twins playoff lives into his hands this evening. Baker faced the Tigers last Thursday and held them to 1 unearned run over 5 innings but needed 106 pitches to make it through those 15 outs. He'd been unimpressive in his 4 starts before that though, giving up 14 runs in 23 innings (5.48 ERA).

Tonight should be fun to watch. The Yankees get the chance to play emperor and spectate while these two teams fight 'til the death, awaiting the winner. Whichever way it goes, it will be good to finally find out who the Yanks' first round opponent will be.

[Minnesota is basically Canada, so it's time for everyone's (well, my) favorite Canadian rapper, Classified...]

(You gonna find out)
Sooner or later,
(You gonna find out)
Are you ready for this?
(You gonna find out)
Tell 'em who it is...

Game 83: The Arrival

The last time the Yankees entered a series against the Twins, they were sitting at 17-17 and the hand-wringing among Yankees fans was reaching a crescendo. It was getting a little late in the season to be at .500. That night marked was A-Rod's first night back in the Bronx and the last time they would see that winning percentage (hopefully for the season). The game was highlighted by a Brett Gardner inside-the-park homer and a walk-off hit by Melky. It was the first of three walk-offs by the Yankees in that series, one in which they swept all four games by a grand total of 5 runs.

Minnesota actually came into that game a half game ahead of the Yanks, but that series sent them spinning in opposite directions. With three games decided by one run, and the other by two runs, it could have easily gone the other way. Instead, the series was a major part of a 9 game winning streak for the Yanks whereas the Twins lost 6 in a row and were at .500 as recently as June 29th. At 43-40, the Twins are 1.5 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central but 5.5 games behind the Bombers in the Wild Card standings.

Taking the hill tonight and looking to avenge his poorest start since Opening Day will be CC Sabathia. Despite striking out 8 in 5 2/3, the big fella got tagged for 6 earned runs and the loss last Thursday against the Mariners. He followed up that clunker on Opening Day with 7 2/3 of shutout ball, so perhaps he's got another bounceback in him.

Twins righthander Scott Baker is coming off a strong June, during which he produced quality starts in five out of six tries, and went 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA and a 0.966 WHIP. That might be slightly less impressive when you consider those starts came against the Indians, A's ,Cubs, Brewers, Astros and Royals, but you've still got to get the job done. He's at 6-6 with a 4.99 ERA on the year and in his two previous starts against the Yankees (both in 2006), he's 2-0 with a 1.50.

Frankie Cervelli gets the start behind the plate tonight. Sabathia has a 51 to 14 K/BB ratio in 8 games with Cervelli as opposed to 23/19 in 7 games with Posada back there. Brett Gardner gets the start in center with Damon and Swisher on either side.

The Yanks arrive the HHH Metrodome having won 8 of their last 10 against the Twins and hoping they can catapult themselves to another winning streak. They've had their struggles in the building, however, going only 8-11 there since 2004. Barring a meeting in the playoffs this will be the last series the Yanks play there, so John Sterling will no longer have to refer to the outfield wall as "the baggy".

Don't forget that the game starts at 8, like I did until just now.

[Tonight's song comes to you from the Minneapolis-based hip hop group Atmosphere. They've got a pretty extensive song catalog, so if you are a fan of the genre, I would highly recommend checking it out.]

They've arrived, with the excitement of a newborn,
Came to join the main event and fight against the lukewarm.
They've arrived, with nothing but their word and their history,
Take a can of paint and try to decorate the dignity.