Game 35: Twenty Five Miles

One day short of one year ago, the Minnesota Twins came into New York for a four game wrap-around weekend series. The Yankees swept, winning the first three games via walkoff. The team had already registered two walkoff wins prior to the start of that series, but the triplet against the Twins was what began to make 2009 the year of the walkoff. It was in the second game of that series, won by an eleventh inning Alex Rodriguez home run, that A.J. Burnett delivered his first pie in the face of 2009. He followed that up with another the next day, when Johnny Damon hit a tenth inning homer to win a game that Burnett had started. A tradition was born.

After taking the fourth game of that series (in non-walkoff) fashion, the teams didn't meet again until a three game series in Minnesota in July. The Yankees swept that series as well, with Burnett getting the win in the middle game. But by virtue of being on the road, there were no walkoffs.

And of course the teams met again in the ALDS, and again, the Yankees swept. The final meeting at Yankee Stadium took place in Game Two, started by A.J. Burnett and ended by a Mark Teixeira walkoff home run in the eleventh inning. All told, the clubs met ten times last year and the Yankees won all ten games, four of them via walkoff.

A.J. Burnett gets the ball for the Yankees tonight, as they open a three game weekend series against the Twins. He was stone wild last year, leading the American League in both walks and wild pitches. This year is a different story, as Burnett's 2010 walk rate sits at just 2.8 per nine innings, 1.4 walks per nine lower than it was last year, and just 0.2 walks per nine greater than his career best of 2.6 walks per nine in 2006. Burnett may have a little more difficulty keeping the walks down tonight. Entering play today the Twins rank third in MLB in both walks (147) and walk rate (10.9%), up from being twelfth in both categories last year.

The Yankees are one of the two teams ahead of the Twins in both walks and walk rate, ranking second to Atlanta in both categories. But they're going to have their work cut out for them tonight if they want to get their free passes. Minnesota starter Scott Baker has a walk rate of just 2.1 per nine through his first 696 Major League innings. He ranked seventh in the AL in BB/9 last year, is currently eighth in the AL this year, and would have been amongst the league leaders in each of his first four seasons had he pitched enough innings to qualify. Since his debut in 2005, Baker ranks twelfth in walk rate amongst all pitchers with at least 696 IP.

After registering fifteen walkoff wins in 2009, the Yankees have yet to have one in 2010. But with four walkoffs in six chances against the Twins last year, perhaps this series will offer the Yankees first walkoff of the season. These two clubs are the two most walk happy in the AL this year, but one may lose their stride tonight since the starters have been so stingy with the base on balls. So what's it going to be: Walkoff or walk on?

I got to keep on walkin'
I got to walk on oh ho ho
I, I, I, I, I'm so tired but I just can't lose my stride
Walk on let me tell you ya'll
I, I, I, I, I, I'm so tired
But I just can't lose my stride

[Song notes: The Yankees may have left Motown yesterday, but I'm still in a Motown Records state of mind. Of course, Edwin Starr's most appropriate baseball song might just be "War", but that meme's been used so many times before.]

-Lineups-

Yankees:
One roster note: the Yankees have released Christian Garcia. The talented but perpetually injured pitcher left his first start of the year with pain in his elbow, and has since undergone his second career Tommy John Surgery. With the open roster spot, the club has claimed pitcher Shane Lindsay on waivers from Colorado. This might not ever come into play, but the club has forfeited some roster flexibility with this move. Garcia's season ending surgery made him a 60 day DL candidate waiting to happen. Calling Garcia up and placing him on the DL would have opened a 40 man spot in the event the Yankees needed it later in the year. They no longer have that option, but they must see enough in the Australian Lindsay to feel comfortable giving up that flexibility.

Given Garcia's injury history, it's no sure bet that another organization snatches him up. He may end up back in the Yankees system, much like oft-injured Humberto Sanchez did after he was DFA'd following the 2008 season.

Derek Jeter, slump, sore pinky and all, remains in the lineup. Nick Swisher and his sore bicep return after a one day absence. Brett Gardner remains in the two spot; with Jorge Posada getting the night off the club prefers keeping Swisher's power in the middle of the order. With a righty on the mound Juan Miranda gets the nod as the DH, but interestingly Marcus Thames starts in left field.

Derek Jeter SS
Brett Gardner CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Marcus Thames LF
Juan Miranda DH
Francisco Cervelli C

Twins:

Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Michael Cuddyer RF
Jason Kubel DH
Delmon Young LF
Alexi Casilla SS
Nick Punto 3B

Game 13 Recap

1. Gio Gonzalez looked like he was about to get out of the first inning unscathed, but the Yankees mounted a two out rally. Mark Teixeira roped a double down the left field line, then Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano followed with two consecutive walks. Up next, Jorge Posada grounded a ball to first that hit Daric Barton in the chest. The ball fell to the ground in plenty of time for Barton to scoop it up and run to first but he couldn't convert the play as Mark Teixeira came around to score and the inning was extended. So obviously, the play was scored a... base hit for Posada.

While Posada's single was somewhat cheap, Nick Swisher followed it with a clean, two-run base knock, scoring A-Rod and Cano and putting the Yanks ahead 3-0.

2. After retiring Jeter to begin the 5th, Gonzalez issued two more walks to Johnson and Teixeira. That was the end of his night as Bob Geren called on Craig Breslow to face A-Rod. Breslow laid an 88 mph, 2-1 fastball down the middle and A-Rod absolutely hammered it to left-center to make it 6-0 Yanks.

3. Javier Vazquez allowed a home run to Travis Buck to lead off the 5th inning and another two run shot to Kurt Suzuki in the 6th. He was replaced by Boone Logan with the Yanks leading 6-3.

4. Old friend Edwar Ramirez pitched the top of the 7th, loaded the bases with three walks but managed to escape the inning after allowing only one run. 7-3 Bombers.

5. Logan got into some trouble for the Yanks in the bottom half of the inning, loading the bases on an infield single, a clean base hit and a borderline walk. Joba Chamberlain came in and struck out Kevin Kouzmanoff to end the inning.

Joba came back to pitch the 8th inning and sat the A's down in order with two K's and a weak grounder to first. Damaso Marte started the 9th but Joe Girardi called on Mariano Rivera after a 5 pitch walk to Jake Fox. Mo got a strike out and a double play, ballgame over, Yanks win 7-3.

IFs, ANDs & BUTs

• Vazquez worked in and out of trouble in the 2nd. He allowed a single to Kurt Suzuki and a double to Eric Chavez to start the inning. Javy got his first out when Mark Ellis chopped a ball down the third baseline and Suzuki, going on contact, was gunned down at home, putting runners on the corners with one out. Travis Buck obliged Vazquez with a double play, but an unconventional one. Buck lined it back to Vazquez, who tossed it to first to catch Mark Ellis to far off the base.
  
  
• Aside from the two long balls, Javy pitched pretty well. He threw more than 2/3 of his pitches for strikes and broke off some nasty sliders and curves, the likes of which we haven't seen in his previous outings this season. Both home runs came on fastballs, so he likely still needs some work in that department. Regardless, he's on the board with a pretty good start and a victory.
  
  
• Umpire Ed Rapuano had to leave the game after being hit with a foul tip. It appeared that he was okay at first but left the game under his own power a batter after it happened and was taken to a local hospital for a CT scan.
  
  
• The song choice last night was somewhat prophetic as the Yankees drew 10 walks, 5 of them against Gonzalez (4 of which came around to score).
  
  
• A-Rod and Robinson Cano(!!!) both drew three bases on balls.
  
  
• No Yankee had more than one hit.
  
  
• Joba touched 96 on the radar gun a couple times and his fastball sat in the mid-90's. This was one of his very good nights as he notched 3 K's in 1 1/3 perfect innings.
  
  
• A refreshing change from the series against Texas: no one made an error!
  
  
• The Yanks are now on a 5 game winning streak.

Tonight's game is another late one as Phil Hughes takes on Ben Sheets at 10:05 PM.

When Is A Slump A Slump?

Good morning, Fackers. Yes, I just made a Geology picture "joke". Doc Nardacci would be so proud... Now get ready for some logarithms! WAKE UP!

Over at the Freakonomics blog at the NYT, they used some statistics to propose a more solid definition for what actually consititues a slump (or any streak with an absence of a certain event) using A-Rod as an example (h/t BBTF):

It occurred to me that it would be pretty easy to derive a statistical standard for determining when an athlete was having a “statistically significant slump.” For example, Alex Rodriguez recently went through a homerless drought of 72 at-bats. Over his career, A-Rod has averaged one homer for every 14.2 at bats — suggesting there is about a 93 percent chance that he will not homer on any individual at bat. It would be crazy to say that he was in a home-run slump after failing to homer after just a few at bats. But the question is how many homer-less at bats is enough to be a statistically significant drought?

The answer is 42. There is less than a 5 percent chance that Rodriguez would go homerless 42 times in a row — so we can reject the hypothesis (at a 5 percent level of statistical significance) that he is going homer-less merely as a matter of chance.

They are essentially drawing the line at a 95% confindence interval (2 standard deviations), but you can set your own parameters by altering the simple formula:

Total consecutive number of bad events > log(.05)/log(probability of single bad event)

It's a little more difficult because you have to play around with it to find the right number, but you can also figure out what the likelihood of A-Rod going on a 72 at bat homerless streak (beginning in his next at bat) would be. It's about one half of one percent.

Using this method, we can determining the (im)probability that Derek Jeter would go 113 plate appearances without working a walk like he did from July 28th to August 25th. In 9656 career PAs, Jeter has walked 863 times, giving him a walk rate about approximately 8.9%. This makes the odds of him going that long without a base on balls 0.0025% or 1 in 4,000.

Fun stuff, huh? No? Well at least it gives you a way, numerically, to prove that Tim McCarver is an idiot. You're welcome.