Past World Series Rematches

2010 marks the fourteenth season of interleague play, and the seventh time in those fourteen years that the Yankees are the reigning American League champions. When the Yankees and Phillies start their three game interleague series tonight, it'll be the fifth time in those seven years that the Yankees face their opponent from the previous Fall Classic.

In 1997, the inaugural year of interleague play, the Yankees hosted Atlanta from June 30th through July 2nd. Just as they had in the previous year's World Series, the Braves took two of the three games played in the Bronx. All three games were pitchers' duels, with the Braves taking games two and three with scores of 3-1 and 2-0 respectively, while the lone Yankee win was a ten inning 1-0 victory in the opener.

Three years later the two clubs met in Atlanta, in a rematch of the 1999 World Series. This time the Yanks took the series, winning two of the three games. This series was far more offensive than the 1997 rematch, as each of the three games matched or exceeded the seven total runs from '97 series. The Yanks took the opener 5-2, dropped the middle 7-11, and took the rubber match 7-6.

The six Subway Series games between the Yankees and Mets in 2001 were one more than number of games the teams played in the 2000 World Series. The Yankees took the first two at Shea in mid-June before dropping the series finale. Two and half weeks later, they met again at Yankee Stadium. Once again the Yanks took the opener, then dropped the middle game, before winning the series finale.

2002 was the last time the Yankees played an interleague series against the previous year's World Series opponent, as they hosted the Diamondbacks from June 10th through 12th. In the series opener, New York did what they couldn't do the previous fall: beat Randy Johnson. The Big Unit surrendered five runs through seven and two thirds, two of them coming on the home run hit by Marcus Thames in his first Major League at bat. The Yankees won again the following day, behind the pitching of David Wells, who had walked away from a handshake deal with the Snakes to rejoin the Yankees the previous off-season. The Dbacks avoided the sweep in the finale, as Byung-Hun Kim exacted some measure of redemption, pitching two scoreless innings for the save and fanning Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi, and Jorge Posada in working a flawless eighth inning.

Over those four years, the Yankees went 9-6 in interleague World Series rematches, scoring 65 runs and allowing 62. They dropped two of three to Philadelphia in an interleague series last Memorial Day weekend, but are 11-10 overall against Philly in seven interleague series.

Marcus Thames Returns, Nostalgic Offseason Continues

I don't think Brian Cashman would actually make decisions based on something as irrational as nostalgia, but he has spent much of this offseason reacquiring players that were dealt away when the Tampa "brain trust" was purportedly controlling the Yankee organization. First it was Javy Vazquez, next Nick Johnson and this afternoon the Yanks signed Marcus Thames - who was dealt to the Rangers in exchange for Ruben Sierra back in 2003 - to a minor league deal.

Thames had spent six seasons in the Yanks' minor league system before he was dealt. After being drafted in the 30th round of the 1997 draft, he was placed in Rookie ball, slowly moved up through the levels of the farm and was promoted to AA in the middle of 1999. After a marginal 2000 campaign, Thames broke out with a massive 2001 in which he jacked 31 homers for the Norwich Navigators and hit .321/.410/.598. His excellent season earned him a promotion to AAA the following year but he regressed badly, mustering a line of only .207/.297/.378. Despite those dismal results, he still earned a call up to the Major League club in June and famously debuted by hitting a home run of Randy Johnson.

Thames was traded at the behest of George Steinbrenner who was dead set on acquiring a left handed bat for the team. The 37 year old Ruben Sierra apparently fit that bill, but had only a 90 OPS+ over his last 6 seasons in the majors. The salaries were pretty much comparable and the Rangers decided to take a shot on Thames. Neither end of the transaction worked out especially well but the Yankees did slightly better. Sierra hit .276/.323/.432 (100 OPS+) in 189 plate appearances while Thames was fairly dreadful (47 OPS+) in 84 PAs for the Rangers. Thames was DFA'd by Texas at the end of the season to make room on their 40 man roster.

The Tigers signed Thames the following offseason. He provided solid value for Detroit over the first two years of the deal but was below replacement level in both 2008 and 2009. Last year, he missed two months with a severely pulled muscle in his rib cage. The Tigers elected to non-tender him instead of going through arbitration on his salary of $2.275M.

The deal with the Yankees could be worth up to $900K if Thames makes the Major League team. Not coincidentally, Randy Winn's base salary was $1.1M (with $900K in incentives, based on PAs) so regardless how the competition for the 4th outfielder in Spring Training goes, the Yanks will be paying out a maximum of $2M for that spot, all told.

Thames has a career .360 wOBA against lefties as opposed to .324 against righties, so he could be useful as a platoon option in right field. But as we are slowly learning, platoon splits are not always as pronounced as they seem. His value is derived from his power; he's hit an average of 33 home runs per 500 ABs over the course of his career. Thames provides an interesting depth option for the Yanks and with the structure of the deal, it's essentially a no-risk move. I don't think the team has any use at all for Juan Rivera, but at this point I wouldn't be totally shocked if they traded for him anyway.

A Fitting Send-Off For The Big Unit

Randy Johnson's retirement announcement was originally supposed to take place today at some point. However, neither Randy nor any of his advisors realized that the Hall of Fame voting was also planned for this afternoon. As a result, they scrambled to rearrange the event for 7:00PM last night.

I happened to be watching the end of SportsCenter at that point and they directed people to ESPN News for the announcement, which I foolishly assumed would be some sort of a press conference. Instead, it was just a conference call. And a particularly disorganized one at that.

Randy came on just after 7:00 but in a moment of poetic justice, reporters kept joining the call, drowning out his official announcement with a series of beeps and at one point, a phone ringing in the background. They broke the call for a couple of minutes and then re-started it at about 7:05. He seemed all too happy to announce that this would be the last time he would take questions from MLB reporters and said that he didn't regret the way he treated other people during his career but did regret the way he was portrayed, as if those two weren't inextricably linked.

The horror stories about Johnson you'll hear from members of the media are numerous so it's sort of fitting that his aversion to them (holding a conference call) overshadowed what should have been a fairly significant announcement. Not many tears are shed over the way athletes treat reporters but the consensus is that Johnson was one of the worst.

Of course, Yankees fans don't have very fond memories of the Big Unit. Perhaps I was more naive about baseball back when they acquired following the 2004 season, but I expected him to be pretty awesome when he came to the Yankees. I think most people were in the same boat. The gap between the AL and NL didn't seem so large at that point and our view of aging players was badly skewed by steroids, even if we didn't fully realize it yet.

Johnson came to symbolize the worst of what the Yankees were about this decade - a guy who they acquired just past his prime who was still being paid like he was in the middle of it. Even with his flat sliders and surly temperment, Johnson wasn't that bad in 2005, picthing 225 innings to a 3.79 ERA. But he stumbled out of the gate a bit, giving up 15 runs in his first four starts, including 5 in a loss at Fenway Park. Although it probably wasn't fair, Yankees fans expected immediate dominance and instead they got mediocrity, starting off the relationship on the wrong foot.

The Big Unit finished out his '05 season with 5 consecutive wins but gave up 9 hits and 5 runs in 3 innings against the Angels in Game 3 of the ALDS. The following year started off better for Johnson but went downhill fast, a herniated disc in his back sapping his once legendary velocity and action and dragging his ERA down to an even 5.00. He made a start against the Tigers in the '06 ALDS but was tagged with the loss after allowing 5 runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Shortly thereafter, Johnson was headed back to the desert in exchange for Ross Olhendorf, Luis Vizcaino, Steven Jackson and Alberto Gonzalez, an impressive haul for a 42 year old pitcher with a back injury coming off a poor season.

Taking off the Pinstriped glasses, it's hard not to appreciate the uniqueness of Johnson's career. He has the most strikeouts per innings pitched of all-time among pitchers with 1000 IP and 100 decisions. Four consecutive Cy Young awards.

He was stiltishly tall and awkward, almost bird-like in his wingspan. By his 26th birthday he had accumulated all of 10 career wins but somehow managed to reach 300. He walked 416 batters from in the three years from 1990-1992 but only 978 in his final 16 seasons. He was a menacing presence -more feared than respected - but that's how he wanted it to be.

The Nick Johnson Trade Tree

With the Yankees on the verge of re-signing former top prospect Nick Johnson, I've been thinking about the trade that initially sent Johnson from The Bronx. It's the start of a very interesting trade tree.

On December 16, 2003, the Yankees sent Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate to Montreal for Javier Vazquez.

Just over a year later, the Yankees flipped Vazquez, along with Brad Halsey and Dioner Navarro, to Arizona for Randy Johnson.

Two days short of two years later, the Yankees sent Johnson back to the desert for Luis Vizcaino, Steven Jackson, Alberto Gonzalez, and Ross Ohlendorf.

Vizcaino departed the Yankees as a free agent after the 2007 season. Jackson was DFA'd in 2009 and picked up by Pittsburgh for the waiver fee.

Alberto Gonzalez was sent to Washington at the 2008 deadline for Jhonny Nunez. Nunez was part of the package sent to the White Sox for Nick Swisher last November. Exploring the lineage of that trade is really interesting and lengthy and may be a post for another time. For now, let's just say it includes such luminaries as Kevin Brown, Jeff Weaver, Hideki Irabu, and Xavier Hernandez before finally concluding at Steve Sax.

Ross Ohlendorf was part of a package with Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Tabata that was sent to Pittsburgh for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte.

So over the past six years, the Yankees surrendered Nick Johnson, Randy Choate, Juan Rivera, Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro, Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Tabata. All they have left to show for it is Damaso Marte, the waiver money from losing Steven Jackson, and a portion of the Nick Swisher trade.

They further received three years of mediocre pitching between Vazquez and Johnson, one year of relief from Luis Vizcaino during which he was abused into ineffectiveness by Joe Torre, and 276 plate appearances from Xavier Nady.

At least Nick's back now.

Why Is A.J. Burnett Starting Game 2?

This I don't get, so let's let the first guessing begin!

A.J. Burnett has pitched more recently than Andy Pettitte, so flipping the order means Pettitte will start on 7 days rest while Burnett will start on 4. The Twins two best hitters, Jason Kubel and Joe Mauer are left handed so throwing Pettitte might help keep them out of the short porch in right at the Stadium. Burnett will be caught by a dismal offensive catcher, replacing one of the better bats in the line up with someone who may or may not be replacement level.

The decision forces them to carry three catchers for a 5 game series instead of a pinch runner, who might be a waste of a roster spot, but could theoretically be used in every game. Burnett has pitched in a grand total of zero postseason games. The two guys who stand to be offended by this are dynasty cogs - Pettitte and Posada - in favor of a free agent acquisition and a back up catcher that's probably not going to be around next year.

So why would Joe Girardi choose A.J. Burnett to start in two games of this ALDS including the potential deciding Game 5? Even if Posada figures to catch that Game 5, negating one of the above variables, don't you trust Andy Pettitte to give you a representative effort more than Burnett? Not just because of the lack of postseason experience for Burnett, but the fact that Pettitte surrenders fewer homers and far fewer walks. Wouldn't you trust Andy even more if you were Joe Girardi and had caught him before?

Is Pettitte's shoulder hurting? That would make some sense, and I'd be happy that the Yankees didn't announce that publicly. Are we looking at home/road splits, though? Because those are skewed horribly by Burnett's bad outings at Fenway and have evened out since the All-Star Break. Is Girardi doing this based on Burnett's power "stuff"? Because their K/BB rates are pretty similar and the whole "not giving up walks" part of that equation is a lot more important than striking guys out.

Girardi wasn't around the Yankees back then, but he must have been aware of Joe Torre's decision to start John Flaherty to catch Randy Johnson in Game 3 of the 2005 ALDS. You might recall that didn't work out so well.

If Burnett throws a gem, then fantastic, all's well that ends well. But if this doesn't work out for Girardi, he's going to be taking a world of shit for it. On one hand, you can give him some credit for sticking his neck out and making a very questionable decision and going with his convictions, but on the other hand you can look at this as another instance or overmanaging and a potentially fatal one at that.

I get the feeling that this postseason could bring out the worst fan in some us, should things fail to go as planned. The kind of fan who criticizes announcers and questions the manager. Oh wait, I've already done both and the games haven't even started yet. At least I haven't bitched about the umpiring. We'll leave that to angry Tigers fans.

Could Pettitte Win 300?

David Pinto ponders the question: 

The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced Andy Pettitte could easily win 300 games. He’s eighty wins away right now at age 37. He talks about retiring, but his competitive spirit (and large paychecks) keep bringing him back.

He’s a left-hander who induces ground balls. The way balls are flying out of Yankee Stadium to rightfield, the probability exists that Andy’s combination of physical attribute and pitching skill will prove very valuable to the Yankees (although he’s allowed seven of his eight home runs in the Bronx this season).

Finally, Pettitte has the potential to remake himself into a slower pitcher, to become Jamie Moyer. Moyer didn’t start winning game in earnest until he was 33. He totaled 59 wins at that point and now has 250. Andy might get some coaching from Mike Mussina in this regard. That will allow Andy to be effective as age takes it’s toll.

I don't think the fact that Pettitte seems to toy around with retirement just about as much as anyone this side of Brett Favre can be glossed over. He's a family man and it's often said that being away from them for so long takes a toll on him. I get the feeling that Pettitte is thisclose to hanging up the cleats at the end of every season, but Pinto is right... he does keep coming back. 

Logistically, let's see how this would work: Pettitte is on pace for 15 wins this year which is reasonable considering he had 14 and 15 in his past two, respectively. That would leave him at 230 and 38 years old after this year. Even if he continued to win 15 games a year, it would still take him nearly 5 years to get to 300. Does anyone think Pettitte is going to keep trucking 'til he's 43? He has admitted to being injured for the second half of last year and his back acting up as we speak.  

Lastly, Jamie Moyer is the exception to the rule, a total outlier who shouldn't be used as a comparable to anyone. How many pitchers in the majors are older than 43 right now? Two: The Big Unit (45), Moyer (46). Kenny Rogers (another lefty) turned 43 last year and seems like a better comparable for Pettitte than either of the other two (B-R doesn't think any of the three are in Pettitte's top 10). The Gambler won 61 games from 2004-2008 (ages 38-43) playing in Texas and Detroit but his effectiveness steadily eroded towards the end.  

I suppose anything is possible, and it's fun to imagine someone on the Yankees becoming a 300 game winner (I'm not counting Clemens since he only won a relatively small portion in pinstripes - 83). But if I had to bet, I'd put my money on Joba Chamberlain before Andy Pettitte. 

Countdown To Opening Day: #41

The Yankees have a long history of getting great players just as they are exiting their prime and their 2005 aquisition of Randy Johnson was a perfect example.

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When the Yankees got The Big Unit, I couldn't have been more excited. I got a call from my roommate Kevin and we were both downright giddy. We had known him as an ageless wonder who had just hit his stride at age 35 and taken down four straight Cy Young awards.

At a time when the rest of the Yankees' rotation was Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, it looked like a move that should have pushed them over the top. The Red Sox had just won the World Series and it seemed like sending Javier Vasquez, Brad Hallsey, Dioner Navarro and $9M to the Diamondbacks was going to right the baseball universe once again.

In retrospect, there were a ton of warning signs, land mines, red flags and caution tape that Yankee fans probably should have noticed.

1. He was 41 years old
2. He had spent his last six seasons in the National League West
3. After pitching 244 or more innings in 5 consecutive seasons, he was hurt in 2003 and started only 18 games at a 4.26 ERA
4. He was making $16M a year
5. His K/9 had been declining for 4 years
6. Being 6'10" is as much of a liability as it is an asset

I don't put much stock in whether people in the New York media think a player can "handle the New York media", but that scuffle with a cameraman on the way to his Yankee physical certainly wasn't a good omen.

After posting ERAs 2.64 or below in 5 out of his 6 years in Arizona the Big Unit threw 225 2/3 innings of 3.79 ball for the Yanks in 2005. Mostly attributed to his "hanging sliders", he gave up 32 home runs and 207 hits, the highest totals of his career. It was a respectable season overall, but it fell far short of even the most conservative expectations of Yankees fans, players and executives. The prevailing thought at the time was that Johnson would rebound the following year and return to his dominant form.

The result was quite the opposite, in fact. He started 33 games but threw only 205 innings, an average of under 6 1/3 innings per outing, the lowest of his career. His K/BB ratio fell from 4.48 to 2.86 (also the worst of his career). For the first time since his rookie season in 1989 and only time since, he posted an ERA worse than league average.

Late in the season it was revealed that Johnson was pitching with a herniated disc. He received treatments and ended up starting Game 3 of the ALDS against Detroit. It was his last game in Pinstripes and he gave up 5 runs in a contest the Yanks went on to lose 6-0.

The Yanks ended up trading Johnson back to the D-Backs for Luiz Visciano, Ross Olendorf, Alberto Gonzalez and Stephen Jackson. It was a pretty fair haul for a 43 year old pitcher with a bad back coming off what was easily the worst full season of his career.

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After getting it right (for the most part) with guys like David Cone, David Wells, El Duque and Roger Clemens during the last 90's and Mike Mussina in 2001, the aughts have been filled with a minefield of pitching acquisitions that just didn't work out.

In addition to Johnson and Vasquez: Kevin Brown, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Jon Lieber, Jose Contreras, Esteban Loaiza, Jeff Weaver...

If the Yanks are going to return to the promised land this year, they need two big double-initialed additions to the rotation buck that trend.