Final Thoughts On Game Two

We're just a few hours away from Game Three. We'll have the preview up shortly, but before we do, here are a few final thoughts on Game Two.

I made a poor decision Saturday. Late in the afternoon I was offered a ticket to the game. I was feeling pretty tired, ran some quick calculations in my head to what the night would cost, how much driving I'd have to do, and considered the weather forecast, and I declined. To a lesser extent, I didn't think Saturday's game could measure up to what I was fortunate to witness in Game Two of the ALDS. I hate passing up the opportunity to attend a game, but it seemed like the right decision for me at the time. I was wrong.

It's eerie how similar Game Two of the ALCS was to Game Two of the ALDS. Bad weather was predicted, but held out for the most part. The Yankees used the same eight in pitchers in both games, and in the same exact order save for a flip-flop between Phil Coke and Joba Chamberlain in the seventh inning. David Robertson pitched well in relief, earning the win. Once again, Joe Girardi managed aggressively for the win, leaving himself with just one reliever and one position player on the bench at game's end. And of course, with the Yankees down to their final three outs, Alex Rodriguez hit a game tying home run of the opposing team's closer.

Before both series, we've heard how the Yankees' opponents are skilled at doing "the little things" and won't beat themselves. Yet in the ALDS, the Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto made big baserunning blunders that cost the Twins. Thus far in the ALCS we've some costly defensive miscues from the Angels. While the focus has been on the dropped popped up in the first inning of Game One, the "neighborhood play", and on Maicer Izturis' decision to go to second in the thirteenth inning of Game Two, there were two other very costly defensive miscues from the Angels in Game Two that haven't received as much attention.

In the second inning, Robinson Cano laced a triple into the right center field gap to score Nick Swisher for the game's first run. The Angels seemed to be employing what I thought was an odd defensive alignment. Torii Hunter appeared to be swung around to left center field, playing Cano to go the other way, while Bobby Abreu was more towards straightaway right field, if not shaded towards the line. I was surprised that the ball made it all the way to the wall, I had imagined it would be cut off in the gap. But that's not the biggest problem for the Angels with this play. As Nick Swisher was rounding third, he appeared to be running out of gas. I was anticipating a play at the plate, but the throw never came, as Izturis bobbled the relay, killing any shot at Swisher.

Then, on the game's final play, Chone Figgins astutely backed up second base, and was in position to field the errant throw from Izturis. Jerry Hairston said he broke for home as soon as he saw the ball rolling around, and had Figgins picked it clean, he may have had a shot at Hairston at home. At the very least, a throw home may have prompted Hairston to retreat to third base, which was vacated with Erick Aybar covering second and Figgins in short left field. This would have left a bases loaded, one out jam - but who knows if the Halos would have been able to induce another double play ball. Instead, Figgins twice bobbled the ball; there was no throw, negating any chance at prolonging the inning.

Neither play was scored an error, but both were critical in leading to two of the four Yankee runs on the night. Last week, I took a look at the extreme amount of good fortune the Yankees had against the Twins in 2009. While the Angels have fared very well against the Yankees in recent years, the Yankees have caught some big breaks through the first two games of the ALCS. Here's hoping that trend keeps up through the remainder of the series.

The Best Fans In The World?

That's what Mike Lupica is calling Yankees fans this morning:

There aren't fans better than this anywhere in the world. This isn't about whether or not you love the Yankees. This is about Yankee fans.

There are other baseball fans in other cities, of course, Mets fans in this one. There are fans who come out strong for teams who haven't won the way the Yankees won, who don't make the playoffs just about every year the way the Yankees have since Joe Torre first came to town 13 years ago and the winning came back to the Yankees and the Bronx.

But no fans have ever supported a baseball team, the most famous team in this world, the way Yankee fans support theirs.

We constantly hear this praise heaped upon us. Derek Jeter said it in his final speech at the Old Stadium. Michael Kay would like you to believe that Yankee fans are the only ones in baseball that cheer in anticipation of anything. I know I've heard John Sterling say that Yankee fans are the best in the world on the radio broadcast as well. But all of those guys have great reason to pander to fan base, and along with fans themselves trying to compare themselves to followers of other teams, that's all these declarations ever come down to.

It's pretty much impossible to compare fan bases, just as it would be to compare other groups which contain millions of people to each other. Are people from Vermont more laid back then people from New Hampshire? Are Baptists more religious than Evangelists? Are BMW drivers more alert than those who own an Audi? Are people who drink Bud Light cooler than those who drink Coors? (Trick question, they both suck!) The only way to deal with groups that big is to look at them with sweeping generalizations or compare them anecdotally.

The Yankees have some great fans, no doubt, but they also have their fair share of supporters who expect everything and are ready to jump ship two losses into the season. We might have some of the best fans in baseball right now, but that's largely because the ownership and players have given us ample compensation in return for our support. The Yanks only regained their place atop MLB attendance in 2003. There are plenty of factors contributing to how many fans the Yanks draw to games like the logistics of trying to go to a game after work in NYC and price of parking once you get there, but let's not pretend that the Stadium have been selling out through thick and thin.

I'll give you one measure that I find to be interesting, however. There are far more blogs about the Yankees' than any other team. We've got a decent amount linked up over on our Blogshelf, but check out this post by Ross at New Stadium Insider or run down the sidebar at LoHud. There are a huge amount of people that feel compelled to write about the Yankees (most of them for free) and I think that tells us something.

Maybe that something is that the Yankees have been more successful and compelling over the last 15 years than any other team in baseball. And maybe the fact that Yankees fans are so dedicated to the team isn't a function of how great we are as fans, but how successful the team has been over that time. Following the Yankees is easy. The people who follow teams like the Royals, Reds or Pirates through thick and thin are the best fans in baseball, in my opinion.

It's Official: CC To Start Game Four

Good morning Fackers. Well, that was one helluva weekend. Outside of the Giants getting blown out in Nawlins yesterday I don't know that we could have asked for anything more.

In the least surprising news of the weekend, Joe Girardi made it official last night: CC Sabathia will start Tuesday's Game Four of the ALCS on three days rest. This, and the improbable holding out of the storm system on Friday and Saturday, will allow the Yankees to use only three starters over the course of the series, with Sabathia's Game Four start being the only made on short rest.

A talking point entering the post-season was Sabathia's poor post-season track record with Cleveland in 2007 and Milwaukee in 2008. Last season, Sabathia made just a single start in the NLDS, lasting only 3.2 innings allowing ten baserunners and five earned runs.

Sabathia's outstanding performance in two starts this post-season has done much to alleviate those concerns. Last season's poor performance could be chalked up to being just one poor start, or it could have been because Milwaukee whipped Sabathia like the rented mule he was down the stretch. He made his final four starts, including his NLDS disaster, on three days rest. While the final one didn't work out too well, Sabathia was excellent in the previous three: 2-1 with a 0.83 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and 21:4 K:BB in 21.2 IP. In 2001, the rookie Sabathia made the only other start of his career on three days rest, giving up just one run, one hit, two walks, and fanning five in five innings work.

While Sabathia pitched 230 innings this year, sixth most in baseball, the Yankees handled him pretty well. Thirteen of his thirty-four starts came with at least one extra day of rest, including his final four regular season outings. Thanks to the sweep of the Twins in the ALDS, by the time Sabathia takes the mound Tuesday he'll have thrown just 226 pitches over the previous seventeen days. Asking him to make one start on short rest should not be taxing in any way.

Anything can happen in a given start. But if CC lays an egg Tuesday it won't because he's pitching on short rest and it won't be because Joe Girardi chose to run him out for the eighth inning Friday night. Pitching Sabathia in Game Four is the right decision.

A Few More Notes From Last Night

Last night's game ran 5 hours and ten minutes and contained 432 pitches spread out over 108 plate appearances. There's still more to be said about it.

Mariano Rivera was obviously excellent last night but much credit goes to the defense played behind him. Johnny Damon made a nice sliding catch on a looper by Chone Figgins. Mo and A-Rod combined to put 4 hands on a popped up bunt by Jeff Mathis (right) and Cano made a ranging snag for the last out in the 10th inning. Mo doesn't usually need good defense behind him, but when he gets it, say goodnight. He's like Phil Ivey hitting a run of good cards. Ya ain't got a shot.

The Baseball-Reference blog puts Rivera's performance as an "Old man on no rest" in perspective. Mo's the man but he's got nothing on Pete Alexander!

Tango from The Book breaks down the final play of the game mathematically. You probably already knew this, but there was essentially nothing to be gained by trying to get the runner at second (if you assume there was no chance they could have turned a double play).

Craig Calcaterra has some thoughts on the game, with some typical Shyster snark, "It takes longer to give up irrational A-Rod hate than it does to learn to be clutch."

Our pals at Halos Haven were not too happy with Joe Buck or the umps last night. The thing is that the biggest call that went against the Angels was questionable but ultimately correct, unlike the double play that Derek Jeter actually beat out in the sixth inning.

Will Weiss doesn't usually do game recaps for Bronx Banter, but he's got a duesy up over there.

Some random musings from the Yankee Universe.

The obligatory wrap up from LoHud.

And pick which quote doesn't fit into this collection.

Enjoy your football Sunday.

The 2009 Postseason: Where The Correct Calls Are Controversial Too!

One of the most questionable plays in last night's game (the most questionable according to Joe Buck) came in the 10th inning when Melky Cabrera was bearing down on second base after Jorge Posada chopped one to the right side. It appeared to be a tailor-made double play ball and Eric Aybar turned what looked to be the Yankees' 4th twin killing of the night. Except Jerry Layne called Melky safe.

The throw was clearly there in time, but upon further review, it appeared that Aybar had not touched the bag. As 'Duk at Big League Stew pointed out, the "neighborhood play" is commonly accepted in lieu of actually tagging the bag. His take:

From my viewpoint, I can see where Aybar and manager Mike Scioscia were coming from. That's an awfully gutsy call to make in that position. How can umpires look the other way nearly every other time, but enforce it the one time it actually matters? Considering the cold and wet conditions at Yankee Stadium, why couldn't Aybar get a free pass that's never debated in any other circumstance?

To say that this was "the one time" it actually mattered is a little misleading. At one point on the FOX Broadcast, Tim McCarver said they reviewed each of the three previous double plays the Yanks hit into and Aybar had touched the bag every time. They'd been consistent throughout the night.

Lane probably thought this was a particularly egregious offense of the unwritten rule. He could have very easily turned a blind eye to the play because even if replays showed that Aybar never touched the bag, he wouldn't have taken any real heat since people accept that the infielder doesn't have to actually make contact with the bag. But they do have to come close and make some sort of a effort or phantom tag.

Melky slid in hard, running into Aybar and doing his best to best to break up the DP. If Aybar actually stepped on the bag, Melky would have got there sooner and possibly broken up the play all together. That split second mattered.

Joe Buck brought up the play at least 75 more times in the broadcast, saying at one point that it was a good thing that no runs scored in the inning before it would have been terrible for baseball fans to see a call like that factor into the outcome of the game. A technically correct call. How awful!

In a postseason of blown calls, during a came with several wrong calls by the first base umpire, this should be a non-issue. But the fact that it was the 10th inning brings it under intense scrutiny. Props to Jerry Layne for having the balls to make the right call.

Lucky 13: Postseason Pie Part Deux

When Chone Figgins singled home the go-ahead run in the top of the 11th inning, I was pretty sure the Yankees would be heading to Anaheim tied 1-1. You'd figure the walk-off magic had to wear off at some point. The invincibility could only last so long, right? It had been a long night with little scoring and a cold, steady rain was beginning to fall.

When A-Rod led off the bottom of the 11th and promptly found himself in a 0-2 count against Brian Fuentes, the outlook appeared even more grim. Freddy Guzman and Brett Gardner were the next two Yankees on deck and only one could have been pinch hit for - by Jerry Hairston Jr. or Francisco Cervelli if the Yanks were really desperate.

But Fuentes left a fastball in the middle of the plate and A-Rod served it over the right field wall, just out of the reach of a jumping Bobby Abreu. The game was tied again and hope was restored.

It took two more innings, three more Yankee pitchers and a terrible decision by Macier Izturis before Jerry Hairston crossed the plate and won the game for the Yanks, but the Yanks would not be denied.

Too much went on during this 13 inning marathon to do a blow by blow recap, so let's head for the bullet points:

• A.J. Burnett was solid, with the exception of the 5th inning. He loaded the bases and via a single, walk and HBP and uncorked a wild pitch, but buckled down and didn't give up the lead. All told, he went 6 1/3, gave up 3 hits, struck out 4, walked 2 and allowed 2 runs.
  
  
• Joe Saunders did give up a home run, but largely stifled the Yanks otherwise, holding them to 2 runs of 7 IP and striking out 5 while walking just 1.
  
  
• The Yankees are now 17-0 this season when tied after 7 innings (including Game 2 of the ALDS). And that's not just at home. The team has continued to defy the odds over and over again, and the snowballing confidence has become a real asset. You could hear it in the post game comments. They've had an uncanny knack for coming away with the win under any circumstances or conditions or against any closer. Call it what you will - luck, magic, mojo, juju, never-say-die attitude, destiny, aura, positivity, good karma, clutchiferousness, God; the stuff that the best teams always have working for them (at least in retrospect) - it's certainly been on their side so far.
  
  
• Both teams fared miserably with runners in scoring position, combining to leave 30 men on base. The Yankees were 0-8 w/RISP, scoring their runs on two solo homers and an error while the Angels were 3-15 and with only 2 RBI. (The other run came on the WP by Burnett.
  
  
• Robinson Cano drove in a run with a triple in the second inning, but made some really big mistake which nearly sank the Yankees' chances from there on out. He rapped into a double play, erasing a lead off single in the 7th inning and made two errors on routine balls but was thankfully bailed out by his pitchers each time. The Yanks had no errors in the previous 4 games this postseason but had 3 tonight.
  
  
• Similarly, Derek Jeter homered in the third inning, but hit into a twin killing of his own and muffed a potential double play ball in the field.
  
  
• Joe Girardi asked Mariano Rivera for 2 1/3 innings, the most in an appearance since Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. Mo was as brilliant as ever, needing only 25 pitches to sit down 7 batters.
  
  
• Alfredo Aceves was the one who gave up the single to Chone Figgins in the 11th, the only one of the 7 relievers the Angels got to.
  
  
• A-Rod's homer was only the 3rd game-tying extra inning HR in postseason history. That's nearly unbelievable at first blush, but if you consider that only the home team can tie the game in extras, it's merely incredible.
  
  
• After Girardi used three pitchers in the 12th inning of a still-tied game, the only man remaining in the bullpen was Chad Gaudin. With the threat of a postponement still looming, it could have been costly to use four of his pitchers for less than one inning (Coke, Joba, Hughes and Marte). Girardi kept firing bullets and luckily, the offense bailed him out before the chamber was empty. And since Nick Siwsher was lifted for a pinch runner in the 7th, it would have been really empty.
  
  
• The decision by Macier Izturis to go to second base on the last play of the game was real, real bad. You've gotta take the sure out there. The Angels has almost no chance of turning two and getting the force at second would have done them essentially no good with the winning run already on third.
  
  
• Last night's game was only the 5th postseason game ever to end on an error.
  
  
• And lastly, meteorologists get a lot of flak for getting things wrong all the time, and usually I refrain from piling on, but this weekend is an exception. FAIL. We were told over and over again that rain would wreak havoc over one or both of these games but neither was so much as delayed. I understand it's not an exact science, there's gotta be some accountability.

The Yanks now lead the series 2-0 and will head for better weather out in Anaheim. The swing between 1-1 and 2-0 is huge because if the Yanks has lost this game, they would have gave up homefield advantage and shortened the series to 5 games.

It's late and that's all I've got for now. Chances are we will have some more thoughts about this game tomorrow today, so check back before football fires up.

Great win. Goodnight.

ALCS Game 2: Gambler's Roll

Weather permitting, the Yankees and Angels will play Game Two of the American League Championship Series tonight. While the weather tonight shouldn't be any colder than last night, the chance of rain is much greater, as there is a nasty looking storm system sitting southwest of the city and heading towards the Stadium. If they can't go tonight, word is the make up would be scheduled for Sunday afternoon at 4:30.

With Game Three currently slated for Monday afternoon in Anaheim at 4:13 EDT, both teams would like to avoid playing Sunday if at all possible. Getting the game in tonight will give the teams a full day to rest following the cross country flight. The Yankees particularly will want to get tonight's game in though, as a rainout tonight would mean that if A.J. Burnett were to come back to pitch a potential Game Five, as is the current plan, he would be doing so on just three days rest. If the Yankees elect not to pitch Burnett under those conditions, it would likely result in Chad Gaudin matching up against Angels' ace John Lackey.

As we saw in Game Five of last year's World Series, Major League Baseball's now-official policy is that once a post-season game begins, it will be played to its completion. So even if the game begins tonight, it may not end until sometime tomorrow. And given that at present tomorrow's forecast is worse than tonight's, I imagine every effort will be made to get this game played this evening. In the post-season starting the game becomes the decision of MLB, not the home team as in the regular season, but I'm confident MLB will roll the dice and try to get this one in tonight.

MLB won't be the only ones taking a gamble with their decisions tonight, as both managers have made unorthodox line up decisions that, if they don't work out, could potentially place them in a media storm as intense as anything brewing in the Tri-State area right now. As we examined on Thursday, Joe Saunders will take the hill for the Halos and Jose Molina will be behind the dish for the Yankees.

As we saw last night, John Lackey struggled to get a feel for his curveball in the frigid conditions. Earlier today, the Yankees Universe predicted that Saunders would have similar problems tonight giving A.J. Burnett an edge, while over at LoHud John Flaherty thinks the weather will have a bigger impact on Burnett's arsenal. So I'm not sure what to think on this one.

Weather aside, I think the Yankees have the edge in the pitching match up. A.J. Burnett posted better numbers than Joe Saunders this year and has a better track record. Again, as we mentioned earlier this week, Saunders gave up the second most HR in the AL this year and had the second highest HR rate. Last night was just the second time in 86 games that Yankee Stadium did not yield a long ball. Maybe the weather supresses power again tonight, or maybe the combination of Saunders and the ballpark makes up for last night.

Saunders faced the Yankees twice this year, both in Anaheim. He allowed 11 baserunners and 5 ER in 5 IP in taking a no decision on July 10th, then went 8.1 IP with just 7 baserunners and 2 ER in getting the win on September 21st, giving him a line of 1-0 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 13.1 IP. He gave up two home runs to Alex Rodriguez and one to Hideki Matsui. Saunders did not appear in this year's Division Series, but had a disastrous start (4.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB) in last year's series against Boston.

A.J Burnett made two starts against the Angels this year, on April 30th in the Bronx and in season series finale in Anaheim on September 23rd. In the first game he allowed 4 ER in 7 IP and received a no decision. In the second he went just 5.2 innings but allowed just two runs, fanned 11, and picked up the win. He made his first career post-season start in Game Two of the ALDS and allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP. He did issue five free passes though after leading the AL in walks this year; look for Bobby Abreu and his minions to attempt to exploit that tonight.

As mentioned, Jose Molina will catch Burnett again. Hideki Matsui remains the DH, which is a wise move since he destroys lefties. This will allow the Yankees to insert Jorge Posada directly into the game when Molina is inevitably pinch hit for at some point. Molina will bat ninth, with Nick Swisher taking Posada's customary six spot and Melky Cabrera moving up to eighth.

This will be an interesting one. If the weather doesn't postpone the game, it still has the potential to delay the game deep into the night and to be factor for pitchers, fielders, and batted balls. Saunders, coming off a lackluster season, gets the Game Two nod over ALDS Game Two starter Jered Weaver and over a better lefty in Scott Kazmir. Jose Molina once again plays over the far offensively-superior Jorge Posada. MLB, Scioscia, and Girardi are all taking their turns rolling the dice tonight. Here's hoping that the Yankees are the ones with the hot hand.



You know the gambler he rides, rides on a fool's train
Trading silver for gold
But his luck will change, time takes its toll
On a gambler's roll

Yanks Win A Chiller

On a cold and blustery night in the Bronx, where the temperature hovered in the low 40's and the wind whipped in from center field, no one could have been very comfortable. Some players donned hats with earflaps and thermal facemasks while fans watched in bundled up from the stands in knit caps, parkas and ponchos. It wasn't the type of night where balls are going to travel very far. With the team's respective aces on the mound, it had the markings of a pitcher's duel, but unfortunately for John Lackey, his defense didn't hold up their end of the bargain.

The Angel's fielding miscues started early on. Derek Jeter, who had made a living of swinging early in the count this year, uncharacteristically took the first 5 pitches against Lackey to lead off the home half of the 1st, ultimately working an 8 pitch at bat before knocking an opposite field single. Johnny Damon followed with one of his own - a broken bat flare to left - that allowed Jeter to advance to third base while Damon took second on an errant throw by Juan Rivera. Mark Teixiera popped out for an unproductive out but A-Rod knocked in Jeter with a sac fly to center.

With Damon still on second, Lackey busted Hideki Matsui in on the hands, getting him to pop the ball straight in the air towards third base, in between Chone Figgins and Eric Aybar. The ball hung in the air interminably and at some point they both lost track of it; looking at each other for a split second, before realizing that neither was looking at the ball.

It landed just in front of Aybar, allowing Damon to trot home easily on what was absurdly scored a single for Hideki Matsui. It might have been the highest single ever. John Lackey could not be reached for comment.

The Yanks left the bottom of the first with a 2-0 lead which proved to be enough for the man of the night, CC Sabathia. The Big Fellas' only hiccup came in the 4th inning when Vlad Guerrero absolutely ripped a ball to left-center and settled into his home run trot, only to see the ball bounce on the warning track. He ended up on second and was singled home with two outs by Kendry Morales two batters later.

The big man made a brilliant play in the 5th, fielding a well-placed bunt down the third baseline by Torii Hunter and firing to first. Teixeira made a great stab, falling off the base into a split but hanging onto the bag with his toe just long enough. Hunter thought he was safe and Mike Scioscia came out to argue, but replays (and the picture below) conclusively showed ball-in-glove and foot-on-bag.

The Yanks responded promptly. With men on first and second in the 5th, Hideki Matsui slapped a fastball from Lackey, splitting the left and center fielders before dying on the outfield grass just short of the warning track. Johnny Damon was ticketed for home already ticketed for home, but Juan Rivera slid towards the ball in a clumsy attempt to field it, which A-Rod picked up as he was passing second base. Alex put his head down rounding third and blew through a stop sign from Rob Thompson. The ball arrived before him and he collided hard with Halos' catcher Jeff Mathis, knee squaring up to jaw, bowling him over but failing to knock the ball loose. Replays showed that Mathis never applied the tag but it's a play would have been next to impossible for the ump to have called correctly.

In the 6th, Melky Cabrera reached on a walk, moved to second on another defensive mistake by the Angels, this one an errant pickoff throw by Lackey. Jeter followed with a sharp liner up the middle which should have produced a close play at the plate with Torii Hunter coming on. However, continuing the tragedy of errors, Hunter let the ball bounce over him, there was no throw and Jeter took second in the process.

Meanwhile, CC Sabathia had just settled into his groove. After giving up the run in the fourth, he allowed only one of the final 14 batters he faced to reach base; Kendry Morales with a walk in the 7th. That was only the second time Sabathia reached a 3 ball count all night and the first walk he issued this postseason.

As the cliche goes, the Angels did a lot to beat themselves in the field. But Sabathia did a lot to beat them on the mound, too, which the fans acknowledged at various points, chanting "C-C". Carsten Charles held them to four hits and one walk while striking out 7 in 8 innings The Yankees bullpen was warming at times, but Sabathia did not need to be relieved until the 9th.

Mariano Rivera issued a rare walk to Torii Hunter to begin the inning, but then recorded three straight outs including a swinging strikeout of Vlad Guerrero during which the once-deadly slugger looked like he was swinging underwater.

The Yanks took the 1-0 series lead, but a massive storm system looms east of NYC surrounding Game 2 of the series in a literal cloud of uncertainty. It could be a while before more baseball is played, but the wait won't seem as bad with a "W" under the belt.

ALCS Game 1: Who Knows?

Here we are, folks. It's the American League Championship Series; Phase Two of a possible three in the quest for ultimate baseball glory. It's been a long 5 years since the Yanks have been in those position.

There are only 6 Yankees (Jeter, A-Rod, Mo, Posada, Cano, Matsui) that were on the roster in 2004 or the last time the Yankees faced the Angels in 2005. The Angels are returning only 4 players from 2005. So while the narrative that the Angels own the Yanks in the postseason is going to be thrown out there, it's not all that relevant any more. The Red Sox supposedly had the Angels' number going into the ALDS and they are watching this one from their respective couches. (I love pointing that out...)

As Matt delved into this morning, the two teams split the season series and are quite evenly matched. The Yanks have a slight advantage when you look at the accumulation of their regular season stats, but much of that goes out the window at this point. The rosters are optimized for a short series and there's no guarantee that a 52/48 or even 55/45 edge is going to show up in a best of 7 series. The miserable weather in the Bronx to start the series could further obscure any advantages one way or another.

John Lackey gets the start for the Angels tonight, off a dominant outing against the Red Sox in the ALDS. The Angels' Ace shut down the Sox over 7 1/3 IP, holding them to 4 hits, one walk and no runs. He was also sharp in his one outing against the Yankees this year, holding them to two runs over 7 innings out in Anaheim and picking up the win in the process.

The Angels trot out a pretty formidable line up as well, one that ranked second in the AL behind the Yankees in runs scored. That's pretty impressive when you consider that they were only 3rd in OBP and 4th in slugging percentage (Yanks were first in both). Their oft-discussed running game has surely filled in some of those gaps. The always-pesky Chone Figgins will be leading off and Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Vlad Guerrero make up the heart of their order. Kendry Morales has put up Mark Teixeira-style numbers this year but he's only hitting 6th.

Of course, CC Sabathia will be ascending to the rubber for the Yankees and trying to wade though that line up tonight. He wasn't in his start against the Twins (which was 9 freaking days ago), but he did strike out 8 and walk none in 6 2/3 innings. He gave up 8 hits and 2 runs (one earned) and needed 113 pitches to do it, but showed that he was capable of finding his command under pressure.

He didn't fare well in either of his starts against the Angels during the regular season this year. In 13 1/3 innings of work, he gave up 9 ER, 17 hits, took the loss in both games but did strike out 11 while walking only 4. Decent peripheral numbers, but that's not much to hang your hat on. We're only interested in the bottom line from here on out.

The Yanks offense, outside of A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and a couple timely hits by Mark Teixeira didn't look too hot against the Twins. Their batting line of .225/.288/.431 isn't going to get it done against the Angels, much less earn them a sweep.

Right now, we're still at the phase where nobody has a clue where this series is going to go. Hopefully this is going to be a great match up; an all-time classic. But what has happened this season, in the ALDSes, in 2005 or in 2002 isn't going to mean much after tonight. Hopefully the Yanks can pull it off, but who knows? Let's go Yanks.

They don't know,
Like I know,
Do you know?
They don't know,
I don't know.

You Know You've Made It In Sports Blogging When...

...Someone takes the time to FJM one of your posts.

Click over and see the hopeless homers at Halos Heaven (of SB Nation, of the Internets) misinterpret what Matt was trying to say, make a misguided attempt at mocking the title of this site, and use "words" like "fallicy" to defend their hitting coach right fielder, Bobby Abreu.

Behold this brilliant analogy comparing Abreu's influence on the Angels to a math teacher:

Once agan it comes down to LUCK. Sure. If your kid comes home from school with better math grades and tells you it's because his teacher showed him a better way to solve the equation, are you going to tell him, "No, you've just had better luck".

This would make perfect sense if A) there were varying degrees to which you could solve an equation, B) the greatest mathematician who ever lived solved equations at a 50% clip, C) the person creating the equations was doing so with the intention of making them impossible to solve and D) the teacher was somehow also the child's classmate. But other than that, it's flawless. Bobby Abreu is Mr. Dewey. Got it.

They also put together an wildly unoriginal list of reasons they hate the Yankees which we would counter if Yankees fans cared enough about the Angels to hate them. Well okay, here's one:

1. CHONE Figgins - I've never pronounced it "Shawn" and never will. Ch-ch-ch-ch-choke on that one, Figgins!

Just because the Red Sox aren't in the ALCS doesn't mean there can't be some animosity involved. Fuck the Angels... Wooohohohohohoo!!!

Round 2: Damon v. Abreu

Yesterday's hot topic around here, Bobby Abreu just got offered a nice new deal with the Angels.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim offered Bobby Abreu a two-year extension worth about $16MM, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

As he did before this year, ol' Bobby is shooting for the stars and looking for a better deal. There's no real harm in that since he didn't sign with the Angels until mid-February this year and he has every right to find another team that's willing to pay him more than that.

Abreu is a really good hitter who would be an asset if placed in any lineup in the history of the game and he's coming off a pretty good year. But he'll be 36 years old when next season starts. He already has limited ability as a corner outfielder and will eventually transition into a part-time DH role.

Does that scenario sound familiar? That's right folks, Johnny Damon is in a nearly identical position.

Granted, the most likely scenario is that both guys stay where they are at, but let's assume the Yankees could have either of them for 2 years at $10M per. It might be a bit much, but with that offer already sitting out there for Abreu, we know it's not going to be much less.

Like we did yesterday with Nick Swisher and Abreu, let's look at the stats.

Damon batted in the two hole almost exclusively this year, while Abreu primarily hit third. This explains some of the gap in RBI, but not as well as Abreu's .354/.448/.475 line with RISP. That's great and all, but it's hardly sustainable.

On the same note, Damon set a career high for HRs this year and that is likely to regress to the mean next year as well. If Abreu were to get half of his plate appearances in Yankee Stadium in 2010, there's a pretty good chance his totals would increase, bringing the two a bit closer together.

The stolen base edge goes to Abreu, but Damon obviously could have run more and a good portion of the difference has to be the product of the strategy of the teams they play for. Defense isn't going to matter as much in the role that the Yankees are looking for since it will involve a good amount of games in the DH slot but Damon was completely terrible this year, and I don't think we can chalk off of it up to his eye issues. Although subjectively, I don't think there's any way he's that much worse than Abreu.

We're looking at two pretty similar players. Both have been extremely fortunate with their health over the years and remain productive at an advanced age. Both are risky investments and there's a fair chance that two years from now, one will look better than the other or both will look pretty bad. But based on what we know now, who ya got?

Realistically, Damon is far more likely to stick around due to real world factors like their families and such, but on paper a good case could be made for either of these guys. Think of what Abreu could do for the Yankees' approach at the plate!

Ronan Tynan: A Singer, Not A Comedian

There are plenty of people who think that playing God Bless America during the 7th inning stretch of every game is unnecessary. I would tend to agree with that sentiment, especially since the rendition by Kate Smith is awful. However, if they could get Ronan Tynan to do it every game - and maybe save the first verse for the big games - I would be totally on board.

Well, that's not going to be happening anytime soon:

Irish tenor Ronan Tynan sings a first-rate "God Bless America," at Yankee Stadium, but his attempt at telling a joke offended a Jewish doctor who found it to be anti-Semitic. [...]

The trouble started when Tynan, 49, bumped into a real estate agent showing an apartment in his East Side apartment building to a doctor from NYU Medical Center.

The agent told Tynan, "Don't worry, they are not Red Sox fans," according to apartment-hunter Gabrielle Gold-von Simson.

"I don't care about that, as long as they aren't Jewish," was Tynan's reply.

Yikes. That must have been awkward. "Well Mr. Tynan, they are Jewish..."

Apparently you can get away with those kind of "jokes" in Ireland. Not so much in New York. The Yankees spiked his appearance tonight as a result.

Hopefully they've secured someone else to sing God Bless America live. My buddy Joe suggested Daniel Rodriguez. It had better be someone, because Kate Smith and her gargling rendition have no place in the playoffs. If the Yankees lose tonight, it's on you, Tynan!

Are You Ready For Some Baseball?

Good morning Fackers. It's finally Friday. This is of course a good thing due to it being the end of yet another work week. But more importantly the seemingly interminable wait for another game of Yankee baseball is over - Mother Nature willing. Five whole days. And we thought the All-Star Break was long this year.

Speaking of the All-Star Break, just prior to it the Yankees had a disastrous three game series in Anaheim during which they were swept and outscored by a total of eleven runs. The end of that series marked the start of the longest hiatus the Yankees had this year - until now. The new longest break will end with a series against those same Angels, except the stakes are much higher this time.

The Yankees' 2009 regular season featured several key moments: the return of Alex Rodriguez in Baltimore; the three consecutive walk-offs against the Twins, the surprise visit from Brian Cashman in Atlanta, a momentum swinging ejection of Joe Girardi, Francisco Cervelli's first Major League home run and the early August sweep in the Bronx that finally turned the tables on the Red Sox. While all of those were positive events, it was perhaps getting swept in southern California that was the most critical turning point of the Yankee season. They exited that series at 51-37, 3 games back in the AL East. They went 52-22 the rest of the way, finishing with the best record in baseball.

Those last 74 games included four against the Angels. The Yankees went 3-1 in those games to even the season series at five apiece, but thanks to that three game set in July, they finished with a minus ten run differential against the Halos. From a Pythagorean perspective, the Yankees picked up about three quarters of win beyond what they should have, thanks in large part to three of their victories coming by a single run.

Over the course of this series, much will be made of the Yankees struggles against the Angels during Mike Scioscia's tenure, particularly in the 2002 and 2005 Division Series. While there's no denying that, it doesn't much matter. These Yankees and Angels are far removed even from last year's versions. This year they split, and while the Yanks may owe probability three fourths of a win heading into this series, they were able to carry an even larger IOU against the Twins over to 2010.

The Yankees last played a game Sunday, in the final baseball game ever played at the Metrodome. Incidentally, we thought the Yankees played their last game there way back in July. Oddly enough, the three game sweep at the hands of the Angels immediately followed. After the Angels took those three, the Yankees took three of the next four. Seven games. Four Angels wins, three Yankees wins. Let's hope those numbers reverse themselves over the next seven games. This series ought to be a good one.